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ALL THESE PEOPLE
The Nation s Human Resources in the South
K,
ALL THESE PEOPLE
The Nation's Human Resources in the South
BY
RUPERT B. VANCE
IN COLLABORATION WITH
NADIA DANILEVSKY
CHAPEL HILL
THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA PRESS
1945
COPYRIGHT, I946, BY
THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA PRESS
C ^
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BY
THE SEEMAN PRINTERY, INC., DURHAM, N. C.
To
HOWARD W. ODUM
Teacher, Friend
Theorist of Regionalism
Academic Statesman of the South at Its Best
n
FOREWORD
This book was begun in the period when the South's population increase
seemed a danger to the Nation. "The central irony of the era," Gerald
W. Johnson wrote then, "is the fact that if we have overproduced any-
thing in this country, what we have overproduced is Americans." The
volume was finished in a period of crisis in manpower when every atom
of our human resources counted for national survival. It looks forward to
the period when returning soldiers and war workers may again bring sur-
plus manpower to fields and factories.
Against these changing conditions the book takes a long-time view,
applying population and regional analysis in the manner made familiar
by previous studies from the University of North Carolina. Care has been
taken to make the statistical analysis and the graphic presentation as com-
plete and clear as possible with the idea that, in addition to population
students, specialists in agriculture, government, industry, health and edu-
cation may be able to make use of our figures even when they disagree
with our interpretations.
The problem of how far research can go in indicating choices of public
policy is perennial, but nowhere is the treatment meant to be dogmatic.
Since public policy is as much related to the values held by a society as to
the social facts developed by research, the first chapter is devoted to the
various aspects of the population interest. While the doctrine of human
resources advanced is assumed to be based on values widely held in our
society, they are given initial treatment so that the reader may thus relate
the body of facts to the conclusions that emerge from the study. Through-
out we 'should like to have the reader feel that this is a book about the nation
in which we discuss the nation's human resources in the region we know
best.
All These Peofle has been more than seven years in the making. They
told us in school that all the cells of the human body changed every seven
years. I should like to believe that, for now it is finished I would feel a
[ vii ]
4
viii FOREWORD
new man. All I know for the moment is that I feel a more chastened — I
don't say a wiser — man. Seven years or no, this book could never have
been done alone and I would be more tired of it than I am were it not
for the pattern of cooperation developed in the Institute for Research in
Social Science. My obligations to Howard W. Odum are but imperfectly
conveyed in the dedication -y I should be greatly pleased if this should come
to be regarded as a companion volume to Southern Regions of the United
States. Nadia Danilevsky has been more than collaborator. She assumed
responsibility for the statistical calculations and evidences of her industry
and ingenuity are sprinkled on almost every page. Minna Abernethy took
up this analysis where she left off and helped in editing the work to com-
pletion. When our draftsmen Eric Laddey and Nat Welch joined the
services, Mary Alice Eaton and Rheba Usher Vance completed the graphics.
Special figures were done by A. E. Bevacqua and F. C. Erickson. Through-
out, if she had been working in government, Katharine Jocher, I have the
feeling, would have carried the title of coordinator. For the record be
it said that we enjoyed working with Mr. E. D. Fowler of the Seeman
Printery and we are still good friends.
Colleagues here and elsewhere who have read sections or influenced
the treatment by discussion or otherwise are T. J. Woofter, S. H. Hobbs,
Jr., Margaret Jarman Hagood, Katharine Jocher, Harriet L. Herring,
Guy B. Johnson, Gordon W. Blackwell, Carter Goodrich, Glenn E. Mc-
Laughlin, Frank Lorimer, Frederick Osborn, William S. Davlin, Albert
S. Keister, Erich W. Zimmermann, P. K. Whelpton, and Warren S.
Thompson. Nadia Danilevsky has read manuscript and proof at least
three times.
Among former graduate students whose researches have proved valu-
able are Ellen Hull Neff, Harold L. Geisert, Bernice Milburn Moore,
Kenneth Evans, Robert Millikan, Ruth Crowell Leafer, Robin Williams,
J. Herman Johnson, John M. Maclachlan, Mary Alice Eaton, and the
late Floyd M. Cox. Treva Williams Bevacqua and the entire secretarial
staff of the Institute have been both patient and efficient in the many retyp-
ings of the manuscript. Since I have no desire to minimize the fact that
I was around while all this was going on, I had best assume responsibility
for all the errors still left in the work.
Portions of various chapters have previously been published in differ-
ent form. The author acknowledges the courtesy of the editors of Social
Forces, The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, The Southern Economic
Journal, The Journal of Farm Economics, The Southwest Review, The
Southern Review, The Virginia Quarterly Review and representatives of
the Duke University Press, The University of North Carolina Press, the
FOREWORD ix
Social Science Research Council, the Study of Population Redistribution,
the Public Affairs Committee, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the
National Resources Planning Board in permitting use of this material. The
University of Chicago Press has graciously given permission to use as a
basis for the regional analyses the map of the United States adapted by
the Institute for Research in Social Science from Goode's Base Map Series.
Most of the computations were done from final releases of the Bureau
of the Census in advance of publication of the 1940 Census volumes.
Footnotes to these releases have been retained as source notes, but those
who wish to follow up references will find an outline table of contents of
the 1940 Census in the bibliography.
In addition the author wishes to acknowledge the aid received from
deliberations of Research Conferences on the Cotton Economy, Popula-
tion, Income, and Health sponsored by the Southern Regional Committee
of the Social Science Research Council. Perhaps more than routine ac-
knowledgment should be made for the continued support of the General
Education Board and for assistance in publication by the Julius Rosenwald
Fund. A grant of $100 for graphic materials was made by the Graduate
Board of the University of North Carolina from the Smith Fund.
R. B. V.
Chapel Hill
February, 1945.
/f-H
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAGES
Foreword vii
List of Tables xiii
List of Figures , xxi
PART I
The Dynamics of Population
CHAPTER
Human Resources and Social Values i
ow the People Grew 10
an. The Record of the Decade 24
4. Male and Female , 39
5. The Young, the Old, and the Mature 48
6. The Trend of Fertility 62
7. Family Size and Replacements .' 79 '
■ 8. The Pattern of High Fertility 95
9. Moving Across the Map 109
10. The Trend of Southern Migration 124
11. The Changing Occupational Distribution 140
PART II
Population and the Agraria?i Economy
in. Farm Population and the Land Use Pattern 154
13. The Supporting Capacity of the Crop System 177
[xi]
xii TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER PAGES
14. Men, Mules, and Machines 198
S./I5. Tenancy — A Foothold on the Land 213
_x 16. Race, Class and Tenure 231
PART III
Population and the Industrial Economy
17. Income and Industry 248
18. Industrialization of Rural Areas 279
19. The Rise of an Industrial Community 294
20. The Effects of Industrialization 303
2 1 . Population and Unemployment 318
PART IV
Cultural Adequacy of the People
22. Health and Vitality of the People 335
23. Health Among the Elders 351
24. The Task of Public Health 366
25. The Education of the People 380
26. Education and Cultural Adequacy 395
27. Closing the Gap in Southern Education 405
28. The Economics of Education 420
29. From the Grass Roots to the College 437
30. Leadership and Cultural Development 447
PART V
Social Policy and Regional-National Planning
31. The Formulation of Regional-National Population Policy 466
32. Wanted: The Nation's Future for the South 476
Bibliographic Notes 489
General Index to Text 493
LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
Table I. Population, Area, and Wealth, United States and the Six Major
Regions, 1 940 1 1
Table 2. Estimated Number of White Persons Belonging to Indicated National
or Linguistic Stocks, United States and Southeast, 1790 15
Table 3. Percentage Distribution of Congregations, United States and South-
east, 1775 16
Table 4. Nationality of the Foreign-Born Population, United States and South-
east, 1850 17
Table 5. Decennial Change in Population by Race, Southeast, 1 790-1940. . . 18
Table 6. Number of Cities by Size and Population in Each Size Group as
Percentage of Total Population, United States and Southeast, 1940 32
Table 7. Percentage Distribution and Percentage Change of Urban Population
in Cities of 10,000 and Over, United States and the Six Major Regions,
1930-1940 35
Table 8. Population Increase in Metropolitan Districts, United States and
Southeast, 1930-1940 37
Table 9. Sex Composition of Population, by Race and Residence, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1940 42
Table 10. Sex Ratios for Selected Vital Statistics, United States and Southeast,
1930 and 1940 43
Table 1 1 . Age-Specific Death Rates by Sex with Ratio of Male to Female
Rates, United States, 1940 45
Table 12. Sex Composition of the Population by Residence and Nativity, United
States and Southeast, 1 930 and 1940 46
Table 13. Population Types According to Sundbarg's Classification of Age
Groups • 49
Table 14. Number and Percentage Distribution of Population by Maturity,
Pre-Maturity and Post-Maturity Age Groups, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1940 49
Table 15. Number and Percentage Distribution of Youth, 15-24 Years of Age,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940 53
[ xiii ]
xiv LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
Table 1 6. Number and Ratio of Producing to Consuming Units in the Popu-
lation, United States and Southeast, 1890- 1930 60
Table 17. White Population Change Due to Natural Increase and Migration,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1 940 75
Table 18. Registered Illegitimate Births as Percentage of All Live Births,
by Race, United States and Selected States, 1938 85
Table 19. Net Reproduction Index Native White Population, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1 930 92
Table 20. Specified Indices of fertility and Marital Status, United States and
Southeast, 1930 96
Table 21. Decennial Net Loss by Migration of Native White Population,
Southeast, 1870-1940 112
Table 22. Decennial Change by Net Migration in Native White Population,
by Sex, Southeast, 1870-1930 112
Table 23. Native Population by Region of Birth with Number and Percentage
of Inhabitants Residing Within or Outside the Region of Birth, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 113
Table 24. Native Population by Region of Residence with Number and Per-
centage of Inhabitants Born Within or Outside the Region of Residence,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 115
Table 25. Balance of Interregional Migration Among All Native Population,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 117
Table 26. Net Loss by Migration of Native Negro Population, Southeast,
1890-1930 119
Table 27. Net Change by Migration of Negro and Native White Population
from the Southeast, 1 920-1 930 119
Table 28. Net Farm-Urban Migration by Age Groups, Southeast, 1 920-1 930 121
Table 29. Population Changes by Color, Sex, and Residence, Showing Change
Attributable to Natural Increase and Migration, Five Tennessee Valley
States, 1 920-1 930 122
Table 30. Total Population Change Due to Natural Increase and Migration,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940 125
Table 31. Population Change Due to Migration, by Race, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1940 1 26
Table 32. Actual Change in Population and Estimated Change Under Two
Assumptions, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940 128
Table 33. Reasons for Leaving Settled Residence Given by Migrant Families,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935 136
Table 34. Percentage Distribution of the Nation's Land Acreage in Farms
Classified According to Use, United States and the Six Major Regions,
1939 J57
Table 35. Percentage Distribution of the Regional Land Acreage in Farms
Classified According to Use, United States and the Six Major Regions,
1939 J58
LIST OF TABLES xv
PAGE
Table 36. Farms, Farm Land, and Farm Values, United States and Southeast,
1850-1940 I^>3
Table 37. Average Acreage per Farm and Average Value per Farm and per
Acre, United States and Southeast, 1850-1940 164
Table 38. Cumulative Percentages of Farm Operators, All Land in Farms,
and Land Available for Crops, by Size of Farm, United States and South-
east, 1930 and 1935 x"°
Table 39. Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of Products
Sold, Traded or Used by Farm Households, United States and Southeast,
1929 and 1939 x7a
Table 40. Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of Products Sold,
Traded or Used by Farm Households, United States and Southeast, 1939. 175
Table 41. Per Farm Value of Products Sold, Traded or Used by Farm
Household, for Farms Classified by Major Source of Income, United States
and Southeast, 1939 J7^
Table 42. Amount and Percentage Distribution of Gross Income per Farm,
from Farm Production by Origin of Income, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1940 *79
Table 43. Gross Income from Farm Production by Origin of Income and
Percentage Distribution of Each Source of Income, United States and the
Six Major Regions, 1940 180
Table 44. Acreage Harvested and Value of Crops, Southeast, 1929 and 1934 181
Table 45. Summary of Livestock Units on Farms, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1935 J82
Table 46. Livestock on Farms, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935 183
Table 47. Change in Acreage of All Crops Harvested for Feed, Human Food,
and Other Human Needs, Southeast, 1929-1934, 1934-1939, 1929-1939 184
Table 48. Estimated Number of Acres Retired Under the Provisions of the
Agricultural Adjustment Act, United States and Southeast, 1934 185
Table 49. Number and Percentage Change in Livestock and Estimated Live-
stock Units on Farms, Southeast, 1 930-1 935 , . . . . 186
Table 50. Estimate of Feed Rations in Terms of Corn and Hay with Cor-
responding Livestock Units 186
Table 51. Acreage and Production of Specified Crops Harvested, and Percent-
age Change, United States and Southeast, 1929-1939 187
Table 52. Percentage Change in Population and Number of Livestock, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1940 188
Table 53. Specified Classes of Livestock on Farms and Ranches and Milk
Produced, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 and 1940 190
Table 54. Number of Horses on Farms and Ranches with Percentage Decrease,
United States and Southeast, 1920-1940 199
Table 55. Number of Mules on Farms with Percentage Decrease, United
States and Southeast, 1920-1940 200
xvi LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
Table 56. Number of Horses and Mule Colts Under One Year of Age with
Ratio to Horses and Mules of All Ages, United States and Southeast,
1920-1940 201
Table 57. Average Breeding Rate, Death Rate, and Rate of Change per 100
Animals, Horses and Mules, United States and Southeast, 1920-1940 202
Table 58. Work Animals on Farms and Average Acreage in Crops per Work
Animal, United States and Southeast, 1 930- 1935 203
Table 59. Total Work Animal Units on Farms, United States and Southeast,
J930 ;' 203
Table 60. Decrease in Horses and Mules on Farms and Hypothetical Release
of Acreage of Selected Feed Crops, Southeast, 1920-1935 204
Table 61. Change in Cotton and Tobacco Acreage, United States and South-
east, 1919-1934 205
Table 62. Estimated Man Hours Required per Acre to Produce Crops at
Different Periods in the United States, 1 909-1 936 209
Table 63. Change in Number and Acreage of Farms and in Number and Dis-
tribution of Farm Workers, United States and Southeast, 1930-1940 216
Table 64. Number and Percent of Farm Operators by Color and Tenure,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1 930-1 940 217
Table 65. Percentage Change in Number of Farm Operators by Color and
Tenure, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940 226
Table 66. Number and Percentage Distribution of All Farm Operators by Race
and Tenure Groups, Southeast, 1940 232
Table 67. Negro Rural and Urban Population by Census Regions, 1900-1940 233
Table 68. Number and Percentage Distribution of Farm Operators by Race
and Tenure, and Number and Percentage Change, Census South, 1920-
1940 _ 233
Table 69. Color and Tenure Status of Males Engaged in Agriculture in Seven
Southeastern Cotton States, i860, 1 910, 1930 234
Table 70. Concentration of Ownership of Tenant Farms in Seven Cotton
States, 1900-1910 237
Table 71. Comparison of White Tenants with Nonwhite Farm Owners and
Tenants in Farm Acreage, Values per Farm, and per Acre, Southeast, 1940 241
Table 72. Distribution of White and Colored Farm Operators by Tenure,
Southeast, 1930 and 1940 244
Table 73. Changes in Land Tenure by Race, Southeast, 1930-1940 245
Table 74. Farmers and Farm Laborers, 14 Years of Age and Over, South-
east, 1930-1940 246
Table 75. Income per Farm and Income per Person on Farms and Not on
Farms, United States, 1910-1940 255
Table 76. Total and Per Capita Production Income Received in Various
Branches of Industry, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935 .... 258
Table 77. Index of Change in Total Value of Production in Manufacturing,
United States and Southeast, 1919-1939 275
LIST OF TABLES xvii
PAGE
Table 78. Index of Change in Total Amount of Wages, United States and
Southeast, 1919-1939 275
Table 79. Ratio of Average Values in Southeast to National Average in Three
Indices of Manufacturing, 1919-1939 275
Table 80. The Share of the Southeast in Fifty-Five Industries 276
Table 81. Average Hourly Earnings in the Furniture Industry, United States
and Regions, 1937 288
Table 82. Wage Rates and Hours for Female Spinners and Weavers in the
Cotton Industry of Massachusetts and South Carolina, 1 890-1937 290
Table 83. Industries with Five or More Establishments, Catawba Valley, 1929 292
Table 84. Percent and Number of Manufacturing Establishments by Size of
City and Type of Manufacture, North Carolina Catawba Valley, 1938. . . 307
Table 85. Number of Textile Establishments by Size of City and Type of
Textile Manufactured, North Carolina Catawba Valley, 1938 307
Table 86. Comparative Incomes of Industrial and Farm Families, 1935-1936 314
Table 87. Comparison of Average Farm Values in the Upper Valley, 1930-
J933 315
Table 88. Estimated Population 15 to 74 Years of Age by Functional Class
and by Sex with Percentage Distribution, United States and Southeast, 1937 319
Table 89. Percent of Total Manpower Available for Employment by Func-
tional Class with Percent Wastage of Manpower, United States and South-
east, 1937 320
Table 90. Distribution of Population by Effective Manpower, United States and
Southeast, 1937 321
Table 91. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Functional Class,
Southeast, 1930 and 1937 322
Table 92. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Functional Class,
United States, 1930 and 1937 . 325
Table 93. Available Workers as Percentages of Total Population in Each Age
Group, United States and Southeast, 1930 and 1937 326
Table 94. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Employment Status,
United States and Southeast, 1930, 1937, and 1940 330
Table 95. Number Unemployed as Percentage of All Gainful Workers 14
Years and Older, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940 331
Table 96. Number of Unemployed 14 Years Old and Over with Percentage
Unemployed of All Gainful Workers by Social-Economic Classes, United
States and Southeast, 1940 332
Table 97. Death Rates per 100,000 Population in Registration Area by Lead-
ing Causes, 1 900-1 940 338
Table 98. Death Rate per 100,000 Population from Important Causes of
Death, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940 339
Table 99. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Incidence Among White and
Negro Population, United States, Southeast, and Southwest, 1940 343
xviii LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
Table 100. Death Rates per 100,000 Population for Selected Causes of Death,
United States and Southeast, 1930 and 1940 343
Table 1 01. Annnual Rate of Mortality from All Causes at Specific Ages
Among Colored and White in Urban and Rural Areas of Fourteen South-
ern and Nine Northern States, 1931-1933 348
Table 102. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Ratio of Negro Rates of
Death to White Rates, United States and Southeast, 1940 349
Table 103. Selected Values from Life Tables for White Males and Females,
United States, 1900- 1940 351
Table 104. Expectation of Life and Mortality Rate per 1,000, at Specified
Ages, by Color and Sex, United States, 1940 352
Table 105. Abridged Life Table for the Population by Color and Sex, South-
east, 1939-1941 353
Table 106. Distribution of Deaths from All Causes by 5-Year Age Groups
Among the Actual and Stationary Population, with Cumulative Number of
Deaths at the End of Each Period, Southeast, 1930 355
Table 107. Incidence of Death from Specified Causes Among the Actual and
Stationary Population, with Percentage of Total Number of Deaths, Death
Rate per 100,000 Population, and Median Age at Death, Southeast, 1930 357
Table 108. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Median Age at Death,
United States and Southeast, 1930 358
Table 109. Patients in Hospitals for Mental Disease, United States and the
Six Major Regions, 1940 301
Table no. Infant Mortality Rates for Five Leading Causes of Death, by
Race, United States, 1940 fc ■ 375
Table ill. Median Number of School Years Completed by Persons 25 Years
Old and Over Classified According to Sex, Race, and Residence, United
States, 1940 38 x
Table 112. Median Years of School Completed for Persons 25 Years Old and
Over, by Race-Nativity, Urban and Rural, United States, 1940 383
Table 113. Number of Children 14-17 Years of Age, Inclusive, Number of
Secondary Pupils, and Percentage Ratio to Number of Children, by Selected
Years, United States, 1889-1890 to 1935-193° 38°
Table 114. Enrollments in Public, Private, and Parochial Elementary and Sec-
ondary Schools as Percentage of Estimated Number of Children 5-17 Years
of Age, Inclusive, United States, 1935-193° 387
Table 115. Estimate of Public School Enrollment by Race, Southeast, Under
Assumption of Yearly Advancement Rates as of 1935-193° 39°
Table 116. Estimate of Public School Enrollment by Race, United States,
Under Assumption of Yearly Advancement Rates as of 1935-1936 398
Table 117. Population and School Attendance by Single Years from 6 to 17
Years Inclusive, and Enrollment in Public and Private Schools Combined,
by Grades, Southeast, 1929-1931 '■ ■ 399
LIST OF TABLES xix
PAGE
Table 1 1 8. Estimate of Public School Enrollment Under Assumption of Yearly
Advancement Rates and of Optimum Advancement Rates, by Race, South-
east, I935-I936 ■ 402
Table 119. Actual Number of Teachers in Public and Private Schools and
Estimated Number Under Assumption of Actual Pupil-Teacher Ratio and
Optimum School Enrollment, Southeast, 1 935-1936 . 404
Table 120. Estimates of School Population by Race, United States and South-
east, 1870-1938 406
Table 121. Pupils Enrolled in Public Schools Classified by Elementary and
High Schools and by Race, United States and Southeast, 1871-1938 407
Table 122. Ratio of Enrollment in Public Schools to School Population, United
States and Southeast, 1 871-1938 408
Table 123. Pupils Enrolled in Private Schools and Pupils Enrolled in Private
and Public Schools Combined, with Ratio of Enrollment to School Popu-
lation, United States and Southeast, 1900-1938 411
Table 124. Number of Pupils in Average Daily Attendance, Ratio of Attend-
ance to Enrollment, Number of Teachers and Pupil-Teacher Ratio, Ele-
mentary and High Schools, United States and Southeast, 1 871-1938 415
Table 125. Statistics of Education, United States and Southeast, 1871-1938. . 416
Table 126. Financial Statistics of Education, United States and Southeast, 1871-
1938 - 417
Table 127. Regional Differentials in Educational Statistics, 1937-1938 419
Table 128. Average Salary of Teachers, Principals, and Supervisors, by Race,
Fourteen States, 1935-1936 421
Table 129. Value of School Property per Pupil Enrolled, by Race, Ten States,
!935-i936 422
Table 130. Comparison of Average Expenditure on Education, by Race, United
States and Southeast, 1 935-1 936 423
Table 131. Distribution of Current Expenditure for Public Elementary and
Secondary Education per Weighted Census Unit of Educational Need,
United States, Southeast, and Northeast, 1935-1936 426
Table 132. Ratio of the Percentage of Educational Need to the Percentage of
Financial Ability, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935-1936. . 428
Table 133. Effort Exerted to Support Education, United States and the Six
Major Regions, I935"!936 430
Table 134. Federal Aid Necessary to Enable All States to Provide Adequate
Support to Education, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935-1936 431
Table 135. Percentages of School Income from State, County, and Local
Sources, United States, 1 935-1 936 433
Table 136. Percentage Distribution of State and Local Taxes Appropriated for
Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, by Type of Tax, United States,
1935-1936 ■ 435
Table 137. Statistics of Higher Education, United States and the Six Major
Regions, 1937-1938 442
xx LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
Table 138. Comparison of Negro and White College Enrollment, Southeast,
1937 443
Table 139. Educational Statistics of Negro Higher Education, United States,
1936-1937 • 444
Table 140. Percentage Distribution of Statistics of Higher Education, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1 937-1 938 444
Table 141. Functional Classification of Notables by Callings 451
Table 142. Net Migration of Persons Sketched in Who's Who in America,
the Southeast, 1 899-1 937 45&
Table 143. Ratios of the Percentage of United States Notables Living in the
Southeast to the Percentage of the Total Population, 1900-1936 459
Table 144. Number per 100,000 Population in Specified Professional Pur-
suits, 1930 464
Table 145. Negro Professional Workers per 1,000 Negro Population, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 464
Table 146. Employees Aged 15-64 Covered by Old-Age Insurance, as Per-
centage of All Workers Available for Employment and All Workers Em-
ployed 15-64, United States and Southeast, 1937 486
LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure I. Incidence of World War I on the Declining Birth Rates of Five
Countries of Northwestern Europe, 1 870-1 934 3
Figure 2. The Incidence of World War I on Total Births and Male Deaths
as Shown in the Age Distributions of Population of France, England, and
Germany at First Postwar Census, 1921 and 1925 4
Figure 3. The Trend of Natural Increase in the United States: Observed to
1937, Projected to 2,000 5
Figure 4. Six Major Regions of the United States with Dates of Admission by
States, 1 776-1912 11
Figure 5. The Relative Volume of Population, United States' and the Six
Major Regions, 1930 12
Figure 6. Population Growth of the United States as Components of the Six
Major Regions, 1 790-1940 13
Figure 7. Population Increase, United States and Southeast, 1 790-1 940 14
Figure 8. Urban Population as Percentage of the Total Population, United
States and Southeast, 1 7 90- 1940 19
Figure 9. Movement of the Geographic Center of the Population, United States,
1790-1940 20
Figure 10. Density of Population by Counties, United States, 1940 21
Figure 11. Population Distribution of the United States, 1940 22
Figure 12. Population of the Southeast by Decades with Logistic Curve Fitted:
Actual 1830-1930, Trends, 1930-1960 23
Figure 13. Economic Cycles in the United States, 1900-1943 25
Figure 14. Percentage Change in Total Population, United States, 1930-1940 25
Figure 15. Percentage Increase in Population, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1920-1930, 1930-1940 27
Figure 16. Population Change by Counties, United States, 1930-1940 28
Figure 17. Percentage Change in Total, Urban and Rural Population, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940 29
Figure 18. Percentage Change in Rural Farm Population, 1930-1940 30
Figure 19.. Rural Farm Population as Percentage of Total Population, United
States, 1940 31
[xxi]
xxii LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure 20. Rural Nonfarm Population as Percentage of Total Population,
United States, 1940 32
Figure 21. Percentage Change in Urban Population by Size of City, United
States, 1920-1930, 1930-1940 33
Figure 22. Percentage Change in Urban Population, United States, 1 930- 1940 34
Figure 23. Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population, United States,
1940 34
Figure 24. Metropolitan Districts of the United States, 1940 36
Figure 25. The Sex Ratio in the Total Population, United States, 1940 40
Figure 26. The Sex Ratio in the Urban Population, United States, 1940 41
Figure 27. Percentage of the Population in the Mature Age Group, 15-49,
United States, 1 940 50
Figure 28. Percentage of the Population in the Pre-Maturity Age Group, 0-14,
United States, 1940 50
Figure 29. Percentage of the Population in the Post-Maturity Age Group, 50
and Over, United States, 1940 51
Figure 30. Percentage of the Population in the Main Age Groups, United States
and Southeast, 1940 52
Figure 31. Percentage of the Population of Elementary School Age, 5-14*
United States, 1940 52
Figure 32. Percentage of the Population in the Youth Group, 15-24, United
States, 1940 54
Figure 33. Percentage of the Population in the Older Productive Ages, 50-64,
United States, 1940 55
Figure 34. Percentage Change in the Population 65 and Over, United States,
1930-1940 56
Figure 35. Percentage of the Population in Old Age Group, 65 and Over,
United States, 1940 57
Figure 36. Population Pyramids, United States and Southeast, 1940 58
Figure 37. Pyramids of the Total Population of the Southeast, 1930 and 1940 58
Figure 38. Population Pyramids of the Southeast, Urban and Rural Farm, 1940 58
Figure 39. Pyramids of the Urban Population, Southeast, 1930 and 1940 58
Figure 40. The Estimated Future Distribution of Major Age Groups by Resi-
dence with Migration as of 1920-1930, Southeast, 1920-1960. . . 60
Figure 41. Estimated Trend of White Birth Rate, per 1,000 Population,
United States, 1 800-1 940 65
Figure 42. Proportion of Women in Childbearing Age and Average Size of
Family, United States, 1800, 1 940, and 2000 66
Figure 43. Trend in the Number of White Children Under 5 per 1,000 White
Women, 15-49, United States, 1 800-1 930 67
Figure 44. Percentage Distribution of Children Under 5 and Women of Child-
bearing Age, 15-45, Six Major Regions of the United States, 1 880-1 940 68
Figure 45. Fertility Ratio (Children Under 5 per 1,000 Women 15-44),
United States, 1940 69
LIST OF FIGURES xxiii
PAGE
Figure 46. Percentage Decline in Fertility Ratio, United States, 1 930-1 940. 69
Figure 47. The Trend of Birth and Death Rates, Expanding Registration Area,
United States, 1917-1940 7°
Figure 48. The Trend of Birth and Death Rates, Southeast, Expanding Regis-
tration Area, 191 7-1940 71
Figure 49. Crude Birth Rate per 1,000 Enumerated Population, United States,
1940 72
Figure 50. Rate of Natural Increase, United States, 1940 72
Figure 51. Registered Births per 100 Estimated Births, United States, 1940. 73
Figure 52. Percentage Change in Total Population Due to Natural Increase,
United States, 1930-1940 74
Figure 53. Percentage Change in the Colored Population Due to Natural In-
crease, United States, 1930-1940 75
Figure 54. Percentage Change in White Population Due to Natural Increase,
United States, 1930-1940 76
Figure 55. Annual Trend of Age Specific Birth Rates per 1,000 Native White
Women, 15-44, by 5-Year Age Groups, United States, 1920-1939 77
Figure 56. Annual Trend of Birth per 1,000 Native White Women, 15-49,
by Order of Birth, United States, 1920-1939 77
Figure 57. Age Specific Birth Rates by 5-Year Age Groups per 1,000 Women,
15-44, United States Native White, Southeast White and Non-White,
1920, 1930, 1940 78
Figure 58. Percentage Married of Native White Women, by Age, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 80
Figure 59. Marital Condition of Native White Women Over 15, United States
and Six Major Regions, 1930 81
Figure 60. Births to Mothers Under 20 as Percentage of All Cases of Births
to Mothers of Known Ages, United States, 1940 81
Figure 61. Estimated Number of Marriages per 1,000 Population, United
States, 1940 82
Figure 62. Number of Divorces per 1,000 Population, United States, 1940 . 83
Figure 63. Estimated Number of Divorces per 1,000 Marriages, United States,
1940 83
Figure 64. The Trend of Marriage and Birth Rates per 1,000 Population,
United States, 1929-1941 84
Figure 65. Registered Illegitimate Births as Percentage, of All Live Births,
United States, 1938 84
Figure 66. Percentage of Total White Births Registered as Illegitimate, United
States, 1938 86
Figure 67. Percentage Increase in the Number of Families, United States,
1930-1940 88
Figure 68. Percentage Decrease in Size of Family Unit, United States, 1930-
1940 88
xxiv LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure 69. Average Population per Occupied Dwelling Unit, United States,
1940 89
Figure 70. Eventual Daughters and Granddaughters of 100 New-Born Girls
by Color, Southeast, According to Mortality and Fertility Rates of 1929-
1931 92
Figure 71. Index of Net Reproduction for Native White Population, United
States, 1930 93
Figure 72. Marriage Expectation for White and Colored Women of the
Southeast, 1929-1931 96
Figure 73. The Prolificacy Distribution of White Wives, United States and
Southeast, 1929- 1 93 1 97
Figure 74. The Prolificacy Distribution of White and Colored Wives, South-
east, 1929-1931 98
Figure 75. Difference in Number of Births by Race as Attributed to Change
in Five Factors, Southeast, 1 920-1 930 100
Figure 76. Calculated Loss of Births in the Southeast Under the Assumption
of Demographic Conditions as in the United States, 1930 IOI
Figure 77. Actual Number of Births and Computed Number of Births Lost
Annually Because of Mortality of Women from Birth to End of the Repro-
ductive Period, Southeast by Race, 1 929-1 931 103
Figure 78. Percentage of Native-Born Population Living in Other States,
United States, 1930 114
Figure 79. Percentage of State Residents Born in Other States, United States,
193° IJ,6
Figure 80. The Balance of Interregional Migration Among the Native Popu-
lation Since Birth, the Six Major Regions, 1930 116
Figure 81. Net Change in the Native Population Through Interstate Migra-
tion, United States, 1930 1 1 7
Figure 82. Percentage of Native-Born Negroes Living in Other States, United
States, 1 930 118
Figure 83. Percentage of Negro Residents Born in Other States, United States,
193° i:9
Figure 84. Percentage Change in Total Population Due to Migration, United
States, 1 930- 1 940 125
Figure 85. Percentage Change in Colored Population Due to Migration, United
States, 1930-1940 127
Figure 86. Percentage Change in White Population Due to Migration, United
States, 1930-1940 127
Figure 87. Annual Change in the Farm Population as Affected by Births,
Deaths, and Migration, Census South, 1920- 1 94 1 130
Figure 88. Annual Change in the Farm Population as Affected by Births,
Deaths, and Migration, United States without the Census South, 1920- 194 1 130
Figure 89. Net Migration from the Rural Farm Population, United States,
1930-1940 132
LIST OF FIGURES xxv
PAGE
Figure 90. Estimated Percentage Change in the Civilian Population by Coun-
ties, United States, April 1, 1940 to November 1, 1943 132
Figure 91. Projected Trend of Population by Residence with Migration as of
1920-1930, Southeast, 1920-1960 134
Figure 92. Male Replacement Rate per 10,000 in the Rural Farm Popula-
tion, 18-64 Years of Age, United States, 1930 135
Figure 93. Employment Status of Population, 18-64 Years of Age Under
Conditions of 1930 and 1937, United States, 1940, with Estimate for 1950 136
Figure 94. The Percentage Distribution of the Nation's Population and Land
Area, Wage Earners in Manufacturing and Farm Operators, the Six Major
Regions of the United States, 1940 141
Figure 95. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Three Major
Groups, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940 142
Figure 96. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers, by Social-Eco-
nomic Groups, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940 143
Figure 97. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-Eco-
nomic Groups, by Sex, United States and Southeast, 1940 144
Figure 98. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-Eco-
nomic Groups, by Race, United States and Southeast, 1930 145
Figure 99. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-Eco-
nomic Groups, by Race and Sex, Southeast, 1930 146
Figure 100. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-Eco-
nomic Groups, Virginia and Mississippi, 1940 147
Figure 1 01. The Trend in the Number of Gainful Workers by Three Major
Occupational Groups, United States, 1 820-1 940 149
Figure 102. The Trend in the Number of Gainful Workers by Three Major
Occupational Groups, Southeast, 1 870-1 940 151
Figure 103. Value of Farm Products per $1,000 Investment in Farm Prop-
erty, United States by Counties, 1930 156
Figure 104. The Relative Size of the Farm Population in Relation to Amount
of Land in Farms and Proportion Classified as Arable, United States, 1930 158
Figure 105. Acres of Arable Land per Capital of the Farm Population by
Counties, United States, 1935 '..... 159
Figure 106. Value of Farm Land per Capita of the Farm Population by Coun-
ties, United States, 1930 159
Figure 107. Land of First Three Grades (Excellent, Good and Fair) as Per-
centage of All Land, United States, 1934 160
Figure 108. Percentage Distribution of Farm Land Classified as Excellent,
Good and Fair, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1934 161
Figure 109. Percentage of Area Affected by Erosion, United States, 1934. . . . 161
Figure no. Percentage of Area Affected by Wind Erosion, United States,
1934 162
Figure III. Percentage of Area Affected by Severe Sheet Erosion, United
States, 1934 162
xxvi LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure II2. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Size, the Six Major
Regions, 1900-1940 J66
Figure 113. Average Size of Farm, United States, 1940 167
Figure 114. The Distribution of Farm Land and Farm Operators by Cumu-
lative Percentages, Lorenz Curve, United States and Southeast, 1935 168
Figure 115. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Type, United States and
Southeast, 1929 I7°
Figure 116. The Most Important Type of Farm by Value of Products by
Counties, United States, 1929 I7°
Figure 117. The Percentage Distribution of Farms Classified by Type of
Products Serving as Major Source of Income, United States and Southeast,
1939 I71
Figure 118. Average Value of Farm Products Sold, Traded and Used by Farm
Households, United States, 1939 172
Figure 119. The Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of All
Products, United States and Southeast, 1929 and 1939 T73
Figure 120. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of All Products
Sold, Traded and Used, United States, 1939, Southeast, 1929 and 1939 174
Figure 121. Average Value of Farm Products Sold, Traded and Used by
Farm Households, United States, 1929 x75
Figure 122. The Average Value of All Farm Products per Farm by Type
of Farm, 1929 x7°
Figure 123. Gross Income per Farm from Crops, Livestock, Livestock Products
and Benefit Payments, United States, 1940 x79
Figure 124. Acreage and Value of Individual Crops as Percentage of Acreage
and Value of All Crops, Southeast, 1929 and 1934 182
Figure 125. The Acreage and Value of Individual Crops as Percentage of
Acreage and Value of All Crops, Southeast, 1939 »88
Figure 126. Percentage of Farms without Milk Cows, United States, 1939 189
Figure 127. Percentage of Farms without Hogs and Pigs, United States, 1939 189
Figure 128. Percentage of Farms without Poultry, United States, 1939 *92
Figure 129. Percentage of Farms Reporting Garden Vegetables Grown for
Household Use, United States, 1939 _ J93
Figure 130. Percentage of Farms Reporting Feed Purchased, United States,
1939 I94
Figure 131. Percentage of Farms Reporting Purchase of Commercial Ferti-
lizer, United States, 1939 ; ■ ■ x94
Figure 132. Horses and Mules, and Tractors on Farms, January 1, United
States, 1 910-1943 ~u0
Figure 133. Percentage of All Farms Reporting Tractors, United States,
1940 ; 2°7
Figure 134. Percentage of All Farms Not Reporting Horses or Mules, United
States, 1 940 211
Figure 135. Hired Farm Laborers per 100 Farms, United States, 1940 219
LIST OF FIGURES xxvii
PAGE
Figure 136. Unpaid Family Workers per 100 Farms, United States, 1940. 220
Figure 137. Trends in the Expansion of Major Areas of Farm Tenancy by
Counties, United States, 1 880-1 935 221
Figure 138. The Increase in Farm Tenancy by Age of Farmers, United States,
1910-1930 223
Figure 139. Age and Color of Farmers in Relation to Tenure, 1910 and 1930 224
Figure 140. Percentage Change in the Number of Farms, United States, 1930-
1940 225
Figure 141. Percentage Change in Number of Tenants, United States, 1930-
1940 227
Figure 142. Percentage Change in the Number of Farm Owners, United
States, 1 930-1 940 227
Figure 143. The Plantation Areas of the United States by Major Crop Sys-
tems by Counties 237
Figures 144-149. Farm Operators by Color and Tenure, the Census, South,
1935 243
Figure 150. Realized Income per Capita, United States, 1940 249
Figure 151. Estimated National Wealth per Capita, United States, 1936 250
Figure 152. Retail Sales per Capita, United States, 1939 251
Figure 153. Retail Sales per Capita, United States and Six Major Regions, 1929
and 1939 252
Figure 154. Distribution of Families by Income Level and by Percentage of
Aggregate Income, United States, 1935-1936 253
Figure 155. The Percentage Distribution of All Non-Relief Families by Income
Level within Each Region, United States and Five Regions, I935"I93^- ■ 254
Figure 156. Per Capita Gross Income (Including Benefit Payments), Farm
Population, United States, 1940 255
Figure 157. The Percentage Distribution of Rural Farm Families (Non-
Relief) by Income Levels, within Each Region, United States and Five
Regions, 1935-1936 25^
Figure 158. The Percentage Distribution of Large City Families (Non-
Relief) by Income Levels, within Each Region, United States and Five
Regions, 1935-1936 25&
Figure 159. Percentage Distribution of Productive Income by Origin, United
States and Six Major Regions, 1935 257
Figure 160. Income Received from Agriculture as Percentage of Total Pro-
ductive Income, United States, 1935 259
Figure 161. Income Received from Mining and Quarrying as Percentage
of Total Productive Income, United States, 1935 259
Figure 162. Value of Mineral Products per Worker Engaged in Mining
Industries, United States, 1929 26o
Figure 163. Income Received from Manufacturing as Percentage of Total
Productive Income, United States, 1935 26o
xxviii LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure 164. Income Received from Trade and Finance as Percentage of Total
Productive Income, United States, 1935 26 1
Figure 165. Income Received from Government as Percentage of Total Pro-
ductive Income, United States, 1935 262
Figure 166. Income Received from the Service Industries as Percentage of
Total Productive Income, United States, 1940 262
Figure 167. Income Received from Transportation as Percentage of Total
Productive Income, United States, 1935 263
Figure 168. The Percentage Distribution of Productive Income by Three
Types, United States and Six Major Regions, 1935 264
Figure 169. The Major Industrial Areas of the United States, 1939 265
Figure 170. Principal Industrial Counties According to the Number of Wage
Earners in Manufacturing, United States, 1939 265
Figure 171. The Number of Wage Earners Engaged in Manufacturing, United
States by Counties, 1939 268
Figure 172. Number of Gainful Workers in Manufacturing and Mechanical
Industries, Decennial Census and Wage Earners in Manufacturing, Biennial
Census, United States and Southeast, 1900-1940 268
Figure 173. Percentage Change in Employment in Non-Agricultural Estab-
lishments, United States, June, 1940 to November, 1 94 1 269
Figure 174. The Trend of Wages per Wage Earner in Manufacturing, United
States, Far West and Southeast, 1919-1939 270
Figure 175. Wages per Wage Earner Engaged in Manufacturing Industries,
United States, 1939 271
Figure 176. Wages, Value Added by Manufacturing and Value of Product
per Wage Earner, United States and Six Major Regions, 1939 272
Figure 177. Wages, Value Added by Manufacture, and Value of Product per
Wage Earner, United States and Southeast, 1919-1939 274
Figure 178. Wages as Percentage of Value Added in Manufacturing South-
east and Southwest, 1919-1939 274
Figure 179. The Catawba Valley, North Carolina and South Carolina 281
Figure 180. The Place of the Catawba Valley in the River Basin System of
the Southeast 282
Figure 181. Hydro-Electric Development in the Catawba Valley Power Prov-
ince, North and South Carolina, 1940 283
Figure 182. Average Hourly Earnings in Four Branches of the Furniture In-
dustry for Skilled, Semi-Skilled, and Unskilled Workers, North and South,
1937 _ ■ 289
Figure 183. Comparative Wage Rates for Female Weavers and Spinners in
Cotton Textiles, Massachusetts and South Carolina, 1890-1937 290
Figure 184. The High Point Area 295
Figure 185. Counties Having 100,000 or More Textile Spindles, United States,
1939-1940 304
LIST OF FIGURES xxix
PAGE
Figure 1 86. Counties Having 100,000 or More Textile Spindles, United States,
I925 3°4
Figure 187. Number of Wage Earners in Major Textile Areas, United States,
1940 3°5
Figure 188. Percentage of Industrial Wage Earners in the Total Gainfully
Employed Major Textile Areas, United States, 1940 305
Figure 189. Density of Population in Major Textile Areas, United States,
1940 3°6
Figure 190. The Distribution of Non-Textile Manufacturing Establishments
in the Catawba Valley Power Province, North Carolina, 1938 308
Figure 191. The Distribution of Textile Manufacturing Establishments in the
Catawba Valley Power Province, North Carolina, 1938 308
Figure 192. Difference in Number of Workers by Functional Classes Due to
Change in Population and Social Economic Conditions, Southeast, 1930 to
1937 / _ 323
Figure 193. Difference Between Actual Number of Workers in 1937 and
Number Expected According to the 1930 Pattern of Distribution by Three
Functional Classes, Southeast by Sex 324
Figure 194. The Percentage Employed, Unemployed, and Unavailable within
Each 5-Year Age Group, 15-74, Southeast by Sex, 1937 ' 327
Figure 195. Percentage of Total Labor Force Unemployed, United States,
1940 -332
Figure 196. The Standardized Death Rates from AH Causes, White Popu-
lation, United States, 1 929-1 931 337
Figure 197. Percentage of Deaths, by Ten Major Causes, United States and
Six Regions, 1938 339
Figure 198. Deaths from Cancer and Other Malignant Tumors per 100,000
Population, United States, 1940 340
Figure 199. Deaths from Important Causes with Rates per 100,000 Popula-
tion by Race, Southeast, 1930 . 341
Figure 200. Deaths from Tuberculosis (All Forms) per 100,000 Population,
United States, 1940 342
Figure 201. Average Annual Death Rates from Tuberculosis per 100,000
Persons in Counties of Thirteen States, 1 929-1 933, White Deaths 342
Figure 202. Average Annual Death Rates from Tuberculosis per 100,000
Persons in Counties of Thirteen States, 1929- 1933, Colored Deaths 342
Figure 203. Deaths from Suicide per 100,000 Population, United States, 1940 344
Figure 204. Number of Deaths from Homicide per 100,000 Population, United
States, 1940 344
Figure 205. Number of Survivors Out of 100,000 Born Alive by Race and
Sex, United States, 1 939-1 941 353
Figure 206. The Cumulative Number of Deaths from All Causes by Five-
Year Age Groups Among the Actual and the Stationary Population of the
Southeast, 1930 356
xxx LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure 207. The Median Age at Death with Range from Specified Causes,
Actual and Stationary Population, Southeast, 1930 359
Figure 208. The Number of Deaths from Alcoholism per 100,000 Population,
United States, 1940 3^3
Figure 209. Number of Inhabitants per Physician, United States, 1940 367
Figure 210. Medical Care Beds per 1,000 Enumerated Population, 1940,
United States, 1939 3^8
Figure 211. The Percentage of Live Births Attended by Physicians, 1940. . 369
Figure 212. Number of Maternal Deaths from All Puerperal Causes per
1,000 Live Births, United States, 1940 ' 369
Figure 213. Maternal Mortality Rates per 10,000 Live Births, United States
and Southeast, 1927-1940 37P
Figure 214. The Number of Stillbirths per ioo Live Births, United States,
1940 371
Figure 215. The Trend of Infant Mortality, Expanding Registration Area,
United States and Southeast, 1920-1940 372
Figure 216. Infant Death Rates per 1,000 Live Births, United States, 1940 373
Figure 217. The Trend of Infant Mortality, White and Negro, Urban and
Rural, Registration Area, United States, 1915-1940 374
Figures 218-221. Infant Mortality Rates by Race and by Place of Residence,
United States, 1940 37^
Figure 222. Annual per Capita Expenditures by All Official State Agencies
for Health Activities, United States, Approximate 1940 Data 378
Figure 223. Counties with the Service of a Full-Time Public Health Office,
United States, June 30, 1941 379
Figure 224. The Median Number of School Years Completed by Persons 25
Years of Age and Over, United States, 1940 382
Figure 225. Percentage of Persons 25 Years Old and Over Completing Less
than Five Years of School, United States, 1940 384
Figure 226. Percentage Distribution of Population Twenty-Five Years Old
and Over by Grade of School Completed, United States and Southeast,
1940 385
Figure 227. Percentage of Persons Twenty-Five Years Old and Over Who
Had at Least Completed Indicated Grades, United States and Southeast,
1940 386
Figure 228. Percentage of Estimated Population 5-17 Years of Age Enrolled
in All Public, Private, and Parochial Schools, United States, I935~i936 388
Figure 229. Enrollment in High Schools as Percentage of Total Enrollment in
Public Elementary and Secondary Schools, United States, 1938 389
Figure 230. Percentage Ratio of Fourth Year to First Year High School
Enrollment, United States, 1935-1936 39°
Figure 231. Average Daily Attendance as Percentage of Total Public School
Enrollment, United States, 1938 391
LIST OF FIGURES xxxi
PAGE
Figure 232. Average Number of Days Attended by Pupils Enrolled in Public
Schools, United States, 1938 391
Figure 233. Average Number of Pupils in Daily Attendance for Each Member
of the Instructional Staff in All Public Schools, United States, 1938 392
Figure 234. Percentage of Elementary School Teachers with Three or More'
Years of College Training, United States, 1 930-1 931 393
Figure 235. The Percentage of High School Teachers with More than 4 Years
of College Training, United States, 1 930-1 931 393
Figure 236. Estimate of Public School Enrollment Under Assumption of Yearly
Advancement Rates and of Optimum Advancement Rates as of 1 935-1 936,
Southeast by Race 397
Figure 237. School Life and Grade Expectation for White and Negro Pupils
Entering Public Schools Under the Actual and Optimum Advancement
Rates as of 1936, Southeast 398
Figure 238. Complete Enrollment by Grades Contrasted with the Actual
Enrollment, Southeast, 1 929-1 931 400
Figure 239. Population of School Age and School Attendance, Children, Age
6-13, Southeast, 1929-1930 401
Figure 240. Enrollment by Grades in Public Schools on the Basis of Actual
Advancement Rates as of 1936 and Optimum Advancement, Southeast
by Race 403
Figure 241. Population 5-17 Years Inclusive and Enrollment in All Public
Schools, United States and Southeast, 1870-1938 409
Figure 242. The Trend in the Population of School Age, 5-17, and Pupils
Enrolled in All Public Schools, by Race, Southeast, 1870-1938 410
Figure 243. Pupils Enrolled in Public Elementary and High Schools, United
States and Southeast, 1 890-1 928 412
Figure 244. The Percentage Change in Elementary and High School Enroll-
ment, United States and Southeast by 2-Year Periods, 1928-1938 412
Figure 245. Indices of Number of Pupils Enrolled in First Grade (1927-
1936) and Number of Children Born (1920-1929), United States 413
Figure 246. Indices of Number Pupils Enrolled in First Grade (1927-1936)
and Number of Children Born (1 920-1 929), Southeast 414
Figure 247. Total Annual Expenditures per Pupil Enrolled in Public Schools,
United States and Southeast, 1871-1940 418
Figure 248. Average Salary per Teacher, United States and Southeast, 1871-
1940 418
Figure 249. Regional Variations, Positive and Negative, from National Aver-
ages in Education, 1937-1938 419
Figure 250. Average Annual Salary per Teacher, Public Schools, United
States, 1938 421
Figure 251. Average Value of School Property per Pupil Enrolled Public
Schools, United States, 1938 422
xxxii LIST OF FIGURES
PAGE
Figure 252. Annual Cost of Education per Pupil Enrolled in Public Schools,
United States, 1938 423
Figure 253. One-Room School Buildings as Percentage of All School Build-
ings, United States, 1938 424
Figure 254. Index of Educational Need, United States, 1930. 425
Figure 255. Average Current Expenditures for Public Education per Unit
of Educational Need, 1 935-1 936, Six Major Regions 427
Figure 256. Average Current Expenditures for Public Education per Unit
of Educational Need, 1934- 1936, the Southeastern States 427
Figure 257. Average Current Expenditures for Public Education Per Unit of
Educational Need, 1 934-1 936, the Northeastern States 427
Figure 258. Financial Ability of States to Support Education per Unit of
Educational Need, United States, 1 935-1 936 428
Figure 259. The Ratio of Educational Need to Financial Ability, United States,
1935-1936 429
Figure 260. Rank of States According to Percentage of Tax Collections Spent
for Public Schools, United States, 1938 429
Figure 261. Effort Exerted to Support Education: Ratio of Expenditures to
Estimated Revenues Under Uniform Tax System, United States, 1935-
1936 431
Figure 262. Federal Aid per Educational Unit Necessary to Enable All States
to Provide Adequate Support to Education, United States, 1935-1936. . . . 432
Figure 263. The Percentage of Public School Income Derived from State,
County, and Local Sources, United States, 1935-1936 434
Figure 264. Percentage of Appropriations for Public Schools Derived from the
General Property Tax, United States, 1935- 1936 434
Figure 265. The Amount of Public Funds, State, County and City, Devoted
to Publicly Supported Higher Education per Inhabitant 21 and Over,
United States, 1932 44°
Figure 266. Student Enrollment in Institutions of Higher Learning per 100
Population Aged 19-22, United States, 1937-1938 441
Fjgure 267. Percentage of Women Students in Total Enrollment, Institu-
tions of Higher Learning, United States, 1937-1938 442
Figure 268. Percentage Ratio of First Degree Graduates, 1933-1934 to
Freshmen, 1931-1932, United States 445
Figure 269. Birth Rates of Notables per 1,000,000 Native White Population,
United States and Three Regions with Massachusetts, 1 790-1 860 449
Figure 270. Average Birth Rates of Notables per Million Native White Popu-
lation, United States, 1 790-1 860 45°
Figure 271. The Percentage Distribution of American Leaders by Phase of
Culture in Which They Won Fame in Two Periods 452
Figure 272. The Occupational Distribution of American Leaders by Regions
Before 1866 453
LIST OF FIGURES xxxiii
PAGE
Figure 273. The Occupational Distribution of American Leaders by Regions
After 1866 453
Figure 274. Mobility of American Leaders Born within Three Regions by
Periods 455
Figure 275. Source by Region of Birth of American Leaders Resident in Three
Regions Before and After 1865 455
Figure 276. Birth Rates of Who's Who Notables per 10,000 Native-White
Women in Childbearing Age, United States and Southeast, 1 850-1 890. . . . 457
Figure 277. Ratios of Eminent Persons Born in the Southeast by States, 1850-
1860 and 1884-1886 458
Figure 278. Ratios of the Percentage of the Nation's Eminent Persons Resident
in the Southeast by States, 1900-1902, and 1934-1936 460
Figure 279. The Number of Professional Persons per 100,000 Population,
United States, 1940 461
Figure 280. Percentage Increase in Number of Professional Persons per 100,000
Population, United States, 1910-1930 462
Figure 281. Percentage Change in the Number of Professional Persons, United
States, 1 930-1940 462
ALL THESE PEOPLE
The Nations Human Resources in the South
PART I
THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATION
CHAPTER I
HUMAN RESOURCES AND SOCIAL VALUES
Whether it's a mystery novel or a sociological excursion, finding a title
for a book after it is written is likely to be an adventure. Our title, All
These People, comes out of one of the main points of the book, namely,
that Southerners are doing more to replace themselves in the next gener- 1
ation than any of the Nation's folks. The subtitle came out of another
point and an attitude we took toward it. The fact is that Southerners
have less on which to live.
Here we could have our choice of attitudes: we could view with alarm
or we could take it in our stride. We believe that the Nation and the
region need these people and we decided not to be horrified. Hence the
subtitle, The Nation's Human Resources in the South. This attitude comes
out of a philosophy about human resources and the future place of the
South Jn the nation. Those interested in these values will read the first
chapter and the last two. Those interested in the facts will find them in
the chapters in between.
It is an assumption of this study that the value complexes of the great
institutions of our society center in the population interest. Family and
nation, church and school, community and industry often appear united
in the feeling: "People— what else matters?" This unity of values, how-
ever,^ does not make for unity of policy. In many instances, class, economic,
religious, and national interests are so divergent that agreement on popu-
lation policy appears difficult if not impossible, even though general agree-
ment may be secured as to the facts. It is the task of this chapter to
introduce the significance of population trends with a discussion of the
underlying assumptions and social values involved. These values are co-
extensive with society itself, but they may be discussed in terms of the
nation, the family, and economic institutions.
NATIONAL SURVIVAL AND FAMILY REPLACEMENTS
A major interest in population clusters around the values of national
survival. Given adequate numbers as in the United States, national safety
[ i ]
2 ALL THESE PEOPLE
demands the maintenance of these numbers at a high level of efficiency.
Once this was identical with the family interest for it was held that every
family was committed to the perpetuation of its name and stock. While
this sentiment is by no means universally held among the families of the
western world, we still hold that it is the first duty of a nation to survive.
Interest in population replacement is thus coextensive with the sentiment
of nationalism and patriotism itself. It is accordingly a characteristic of
the perilous times in which we live that for the democratic nations the
population problem has become part of the problem of survival.1
Along with the spread of industrialism and rising standards of living
in the nations of the Western World has gone a falling birth rate. The
spread of the practice of family limitation already has a long and respect-
able history behind it. Beginning with the upper classes it has spread with
the diffusion of such modern characteristics as popular education, secular
attitudes, urbanism, and industrialism. Before the war it was agreed that
the spread of the family pattern of the middle classes to the peasants and
industrial workers would so sharply reduce reproduction as to threaten
national survival, (fhe incidence of the world depression convinced the
middle classes of their insecurity, increased the poverty of the poor, and
brought the equalization of class fertility rates that much closer^ Some
believe that the populations of democracies will cease to replenish them-
selves unless the costs of child rearing are further socialized, while others
feel that, as the burden of replenishing the population is lifted from the
lower classes by the spread of birth control, there is no certainty that the
upper classes will raise their net reproduction. If child rearing makes no
contribution to the personal happiness of citizens in a democracy, they
admit no duty to the society to replenish the population, and aside from the
interest in national survival there exists no system of values which con-
tradicts them. .
Modern war brings added emphasis to the value of survival and
renewed threats to population renewals. For the European democracies
the second World War in a generation has hastened the downward spiral
in population. The last war meant large losses among the males of repro-
ductive ages and even greater losses in births to the war generation. Figure
i shows how the declining fertility of western Europe was affected by the
first World War.,,., In almost every country involved, births declined from
20 to 40 percent and remained below normal from four to five years. The
rise in births that came after the war soon subsided and the downward
trend continued at a faster rate.
The further effect of war is made clear in Figure 2 which gives the
^Gunnar Myrdal, Population: A Problem for Democracy (Cambridge, Harvard University PreS3,
1940).
HUMAN RESOURCES AND SOCIAL VALUES
age distribution of the main combatant nations in the first post-war census.
The sharp dips at the early age group of children represent births lost
because of the catastrophe. In Germany in 1925 children of age 15, a
prewar group, amounted to 650,000 as compared with 300,000 children
aged 8, born in the midst of war. In France children of age 4 were no
more numerous than men and women aged 6$ when normally they would
have exceeded the latter by two to one.
Figure i. Incidence of World War I on the Declining Birth Rates of
Five Countries of Northwestern Europe, i 870-1 934
BIRTHS PER
1,000
POPULATION
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1
— — Germany
~* ~ England and Wales
Belgium
— — ■ Sweden
\l^^S[^ -N
■».-*./^-'«^-,
■\ "^^
V
*
.*--*.,"•*,.,
\ \ T vl t
^x^v
w\ it'
^^^**
^
S\j
^
V
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
II 1 ! ! 1! II
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
II 1
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
USOCPAATMENT OF AGRICULTUfle
NCG. 20901 BUREAU OF AGBICULTUBAL ECONOMICS
In addition there is loss of males of military age made evident by com-
parison with females in Figure 2. In France the loss among the young-
est troops was especially noticeable. In Germany there were five one-
year age groups in which women exceeded men by 100,000. It is this
discrepancy in the sex ratios which condemned many women to celibacy
and thus accelerated the downward trend in births./ One of the tragedies
of the second World War was that it bore heavily on the "hollow classes,"
those young men whose numbers were already depleted because they were
born during the first world struggle. This further diminishes the chance
of marriage for women after the war. ' It has been estimated that in
all over 22 millions were lost to Europe exclusive of Russia in the first
World War. About 6.$ millions were killed in the armed services, 5
4 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 2. The Incidence of World War I on Total Births and Male
Deaths as Shown in the Age Distributions of Population of France,
England, and Germany at First Postwar Census, 1921 and 1925
population
in thousands
700
(,00
500
400
300
200
100
FRANCE
1921
700
600
S00
400
300
200
100
0
700
600
500
400
3 00
200
100
0
ENGLAND & WALES
1921
±
^^«~^^FEMALES -n
MALES '
I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I J I I
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 }S 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
AGE
•FEMALES
GERMANY
1925
i. i 1 1 1 i i ■■*'»■ iittii ii
0 5 K> IS 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 €0 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
AGE
Mttropolitan lift Mtwvnce Gomptmj
Source: Statistical Bulletin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, 21, No. 4 (April, 1940), 4.
HUMAN RESOURCES AND SOCIAL VALUES 5
million civilians died who otherwise would have lived and 1 1 millions were
never born.2
<in the United States the population trend was very little affected by /
the first World WarJ Figure 3, based on data of 1937 and projection of
median fertility ana mortality, shows one of the best predictions of our
future population trends. At the balance of births and deaths attained in
1937 the net reproduction rate was below unity and, when the effects of a
favorable ag£ distribution wore off, by 1980 the population would begin
to decline. (Since 1937 the depression has lifted, marriages increased, and '
the birth rate has risen^Whether our population will fall below replace-
ment depends among other things on the length and severity of the
war /J £0 Europe and America the present war brings greater dangers. CL
Granted that peoples will be willing to fight for survival through air
raids and threatening famines, there seems little doubt that futility and
hopelessness will be expressed in the refusal of married couples to bring
children into the world. A prolonged war with millions in service all
over the world will reduce births and give the phenomena of "hollow
classes," and result in a disturbed sex ratio that further depresses the
downward trend of fertility.
Figure 3. The Trend of Natural Increase in the United States:
Observed to 1937, Projected to 2000
utt tin 1,000
1900 1910 1920 1950 1940 - 1950 I960 I9TO 1980
Source: Statistical Bulletin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (July, 1938), p. 12.
1990
2000
Thus while armies of men in all parts of the world are battling to
destroy life, an army of approximately 2,250,000 women in the United
States is in any given year bearing the burden of maternity to renew
human life and maintain the stream of the generations. Actually, the
Frank W. Notestein and others, The Future Population of Europe and the Soviet Union (Geneva,
League of Nations, 1944), p. 75.
6 ALL THESE PEOPLE
number of women who assume the hazards of childbirth is greater than
this, for, in addition to the two and a quarter million births, there are
annually about eighty thousand stillbirths in this country and a large
number of miscarriages and abortions, estimated at well over half a
million.
The crux of the population problem is found in change in natural
increase. Stability is the goal. Thus while it appears that national sur-
vival would be threatened by an appreciable decline in population, eco-
nomic theory has held that social well-being and economic efficiency would
be threatened by large population increases.
THE ECONOMIC INTEREST
The strain toward higher standards of living has reduced fertility in
urban areas and among upper economic classes until the burden of replace-
ments is left largely to agrarian and folk groups. If they are too isolated
from the stream of urban culture to be adept in the practice of family
limitation, they are usually too poor in worldly goods to provide their
children with an adequate start in life. Fifty-five percent of the total
increase in the population from 1930- 1934 came from three agrarian
regions, the Northwest, Southwest, and Southeast that in 1930 had about
one-third of the Nation's population. The Southeast with slightly over one-
fifth of the population and one-eighth of the national income accounted
for 35 percent of the increase. This leads to a consideration of the eco-
nomic interests in population as human resources. In the complex of social
values it is realized that the economic interest in population is as all-
inclusive as the value of national survival itself. It includes industry's
demand for labor and business's hope for consumers, but wider than either,
it must be interpreted in terms of the economic efficiency of total society.
The need of a theory to explain these conditions was met in the Mal-
thusian doctrine that population pressure on total resources progressively
lowered the economic well-being of nations. Thus, there arose opposition
to the high valuation placed by church and state upon large population
renewals.
Population analysis is concerned not only with total numbers in the
nation as a whole but with the location of those numbers in specific regions
and in specific occupations. The maldistribution of population is limited
to certain regional areas and to certain overcrowded occupations. With
approaching stabilization of numbers and with rising national standards
of living, in the Western World there now exists no fear of general
overpopulation. With increasing industrialization and increasing urbani-
zation, however, there have emerged wide differences in regional eco-
HUMAN RESOURCES AND SOCIAL VALUES 7
nomies, a complex occupational hierarchy, and differential birth rates. The
fundamental fact is the great inequalities in regional wealth and income
that exists within the nation. From the analysis to follow it can be con-
cluded that population pressures may exist in certain regions and occupa-
tional groupings without lending support to any Malthusian dictum that
the nation as a whole faces overpopulation.
Accordingly, density of population alone is no sufficient criterion of
population pressure on the one hand or of ineffective use of resources on
the other. T. N. Carver has said that the modern population problem
may be regarded as one of occupational density.3 Thus if certain occu-
pational groups, or if the population living in certain areas, have a much
higher rate of natural increase than those in other occupational groups
or areas, it is felt that their wages will tend to be low and unemployment
greater. This is true unless the educational system, labor exchanges, and
interregional migration are able to shunt enough of the present and on-
coming generation from points of overconcentration to points of relative
underconcentration. In addition there is the question raised by economists
as to whether barriers of skill and lack of opportunity do not operate to
render certain occupational groups noncompeting with each other.
Population pressure is the resultant of dynamic and not of static con-
ditions. Population itself is to be regarded as a flow not a store, and its
unequalized pressures result from its unequal flow. Stated in another
way, population trends rather than population status are to be considered.
Into areas of unequal resource structures flow unequal streams of popu-
lation increases. The attainment and maintenance of equalized popula-
tion pressures in a country of unequal resource areas thus depends on the
flow of two interacting factors: (1) differential reproduction and (2) the
mobility of the population. This unequal flow of population replacements
also holds true with reference to occupational groups. These increases tend
to unloose a flow of mobility which alleviates but rarely completely
equalizes the pressure of population on resources. Social mobility must
be here interpreted as including both internal migration and occupational
mobility. Internal migration often puts the migrant in a position to climb
the occupational ladder, as when the rural migrant by going to the city
changes his location and his occupation at the same time.
POPULATION AS HUMAN RESOURCES
This study of the Southern People follows Howard W. Odum's analysis
of the resources of society in terms of natural "wealth," capital "wealth,"
'in World Population Conference at Geneva (London: Arnold, 1927), pp. 125-27.
8 ALL THESE PEOPLE
technological "wealth," human "wealth," and institutional "wealth."4
The idea has been well put by Lancelot T. Hogben in Retreat from Reason,
where he points out that the wealth and the welfare of nations depends
on (a) -the material resources of man's environment, (b) the biological
resources of social personnel, (c) and the social resources of organization
and institutions for mobilizing the common will to make the fullest use
of the first two.
Here it must be realized that natural resources and human resources
are potential, not absolute. Natural resources, as Erich W. Zimmermann5
has pointed out, are to be estimated in terms not only of their existence
but of their availability. They may exist but they are not made available
apart from the skills, the needs, and the demands of men organized for
their utilization. Not simply the existence of minerals in the ground but
the degree of technology, the efficiency of economic organization, the avail-
ability of capital and the existing social demands determine the availability
of natural resources for any particular area.
In our economic scheme of things, human beings are both means and
ends. It is the skill, the intelligence, and the labor of the population that
give shape and form to all the useful aspects of our environment. Man as
an agent of production is the greatest of all resources. "He contributes,"
writes Erich W. Zimmermann, "his labor, mental and physical; he directs
the process of production ; he discovers new ways of utilizing his environ-
ment; his aspirations furnish aim and purpose."6 Among all resources,
human resources rank the highest. In acquiring skills and scientific pro-
cedures, men have laid up technical resources that are registered in their
very brain and brawn.
But man is also the end of the productive process. Mankind we
rightly think is the ultimate beneficiary of all production from the radia-
tion of solar energy to the last ear of grain garnered from the fields and
the last film of cloth taken from the loom. All resources exist for man
if he can but use them. Thus man, the paradox, is at one and the same
time the end and goal beyond the productive process, and part and parcel
3f it, the chief resource and means toward its attainment.
Physical resources, unused and unneeded, lie inert. Coal left alone
for a million years is still coal. Human resources left unutilized deterio-
rate. Untrained, unskilled, uneducated, modern man would grow up
unable to make the adjustments demanded in modern industry. Unem-
* Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States (Chapel Hill: University of North
Carolina Press, 1936).
6 World Resources and Industries (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1 933 ) ; "Resources of the
South," South Atlantic Quarterly, 32 (July, 1933), 213-226.
World Resources and Industries, p. 122.
HUMAN RESOURCES AND SOCIAL VALUES 9
ployed or delayed in the adjustment to the job, to marriage and family
life, to community responsibilities, normal human beings develop traits
of disorganization and deterioration.
In the modern temper we can readily admit that whether the South's
population is finally to be regarded as 'resource or liability depends on
more than the population itself. Yet we can never escape the realization
that the motivation of any population group furnishes the greatest assur-
ance that its potentialities will be developed and utilized. It is in accord
with this view that we have come to accept as part of the democratic ideal
in Amercia a belief in the greatest possible equality of opportunity, oppor-
tunity for every individual to develop the best that in him lies, hoping
in turn to receive from each his highest contribution to the total ongoing
of society. Consequently, we are coming to believe that the greatest invest-
ment any society can make is in its human resources, their conservation and
development. Thus we justify expenditures in public education, public
health, public welfare and, in times of stress and strain, public relief.7
With these considerations in mind we begin the study of the South-
east, rightly called the seedbed of the Nation.
7 See Alva Myrdal, Nation and Family (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1941), for Sweden's
attempt to integrate social policies with population policy.
CHAPTER 1
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
The study of population, fascinating as it is said to be by those who prac-
tice it, has some complicating factors that should be firmly dealt with at
the outset. Space, time, mass, and movement are the essence as the
philosopher might say of population study, and we can well begin by deal-
ing with these ideas. For space we shall use the idea of regions, for time
we shall refer to the economist's idea of economic cycles and the demo-
grapher's idea of population trends. For mass we shall find that the demo-
graphers talk simply enough about population numbers and density. As
for population movements we shall later represent our regions by making
use of the idea of a series of connected reservoirs.
REGIONS AND POPULATION
For the purpose of understanding a nation so large and so diverse as
the United States, it is necessary to examine it piecemeal, using indices of
physical, cultural and economic factors. Howard W. Odum has visual-
ized the Nation as divided into a minimum number of six regions. In
its geography, the Nation has a humid East, a semi-arid West, a cold
North, and a warm South. Related to the historical development of the
sections, our six regions represent one earlier North, the Northeast j one
earlier South, the Southeast; and four later developing Wests, the Middle
States, the Southwest, the Northwest, and the Far West. Figure 4 out-
lines these regions and suggests their historical emergence by showing the
date at which each State was admitted to the Union.
The six great regional empires differ widely in area, population, and
wealth. Table 1 shows that in 1940 the Northeast led in population and
wealth, followed by the Middle States. The Northwest which led in
area came last in population. The Southeast came third in population
and total wealth. Figure 5, where the size of the States is determined by
the 1930 population, indicates the importance of the Northeast, Middle
States, and Southeast as compared with the sparsely settled western areas.
[10]
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
Figure 4. Six Major Regions of the United States with Dates
of Admission by States, 1 776-1 91 2
11
Source: Charles O. Paullin and J. K. Wright, Historical Atlas of the United States (Washington, D. C,
1932)1 Plates 61-66.
These are the regions, and if we want to know how the people grew we
must consider population movements.
Population study, it can be said in literal terms, is a matter of life
and death. It may help us somewhat to think, as some demographers have
done, of our regions as great reservoirs of population. Into each region
population flows by the entrance of births — "the immigration from heaven"
— and out of every area population flows by the exit of deaths. The differ-
ence between these two rates of flow will give us the rate of natural in-
Table 1,
Population, Area, and Wealth, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1940
Population
Wealth*
Area
Region
Number
Percent
Million dollars
Percent
Square miles
Percent
131,669,275
39,966,500
28,261,829
9,782,337
35,741,574
7,410,435
9,843,509
663,091
100.0
30.4
21.5
7.4
27.1
7.5*
0.5
300,750
117,908
34,527
15,749
86,930
18,501
24,230
2,904
100.0
39.2
11.5
5.2
28.9
6.1
8.1
1.0
3,022,387
206,168
525,609
572,833
458,305
824,997
434,406
69
100.0
6.8
17.4
18.9
Far West
15.2
27.3
14.4
0.0
•Data for 1937._
Source: Population data: Sixteenth Census of the United States^ 1940, Series PH-3; wealth data: National Industrial Conference
Board, The Economic Almanac, 1940; area data: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Table 2.
12 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 5. The Relative Volume of Population, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1930
ORE
— tJO
1
MIMLEi'TATES
mm*sr
ri
1 ™ *M
SOUTH£iST
THE SIZE OF THE STATES IS
DETERMINED BY THE 1930 POPULATION
Source: Adapted from a map by W. P. A., Research Division, Urban Section (Washington, D. C, 1938).
crease — or of natural decrease if the level of the reservoir is falling. But
these reservoirs, it must be remembered, are connected, and migration flows
in and out of every region. These forces constitute the dynamics of popu-
lation and the level attained by their flow and reflow gives us an ever
changing regional balance of settlement. The units of population, how-
ever, are not homogeneous, for individuals differ in sex, age, and race.
Once every ten years in our country the census is taken and the level of
population is measured by States, urban, rural and farm areas in terms
of sex, age, and race.
The census, it must be pointed out, measures the level of the reservoir
without measuring the flows that contributed to its attainment. To do
that a nation must record the vital statistics on births and deaths, annually.
This is a gigantic undertaking attained only in the most civilized coun-
tries, but we shall find that the problem of birth and death registration
has been brought nearer solution in the United States than the problem of
securing figures on internal migration.
The level attained by these flows gives us an ever changing regional
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
13
balance of population which, no doubt, bears some relation to the support-
ing capacity of the area when viewed in (1) terms of physical resources,
(2) the state of economic organization and the technical arts, (3) the
training and abilities of the population, and (4) the relation of the region
to other areas. Such a view sees the region as a reservoir of population,
the inflow of births as a dynamic force, and views migration into or out
of the area as an index of important economic and social changes.
We have followed this figure of how the people grow because, by point-
ing out the way in which population facts are discovered, it foreshadows
the sequence we shall follow in their analysis. In the chapters to follow
a presentation of decennial census changes is followed by a discussion of
the elemental population differences that enter into the sex ratio and the
age composition. This leads in turn to a consideration of the trend of
fertility, the natural increase of births over deaths, and the flow of inter-
regional migration.
THE LONG-TIME TREND
As a new country the United States was characterized by large popu-
lation increases based on high fertility, foreign immigration, and a high
degree of internal migration. Figure 6 shows the growth curve of the
Nation in the 15 decades since the First Census as a component of regional
growth. The importance of the two earlier settled regions, the emergence
Figure 6. Population Growth of the United States as Components
of the Six Major Regions, 1 790-1940
PLUS FAR WEST
PLUS NORTHWEST
SOUTHWEST
MIDDLE STATES
SOUTHEAST
NORTHEAST
1700 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840. 1850 I860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940
Source: Bureau of the Census, "Urban Population of the United States, 1790-1930," Release of October
31, 1939; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-2, Nos. 1-49, Table 1.
i.4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
of the Middle States, the late entrance of the western regions, and the
large recent gains of the Far West stand out clearly in this graph. These
are long-time trends and it must be remembered that population, like busi-
ness cycles, has long-time trends and short-time fluctuations.
Figure 6 centers attention on the growth curve of the Nation and the
regions in the 15 decades since the First Census — a growth that has only
recently begun to slacken. The Nation has increased from less than 4
million people to almost 132 millions j the Southeast has grown from
1 Yi to over 28 million.
In his earlier work Malthus pointed to the United States as a country
that doubled its population every generation. If the length of a generation
could be regarded as the median of overlapping reproductive periods and
be set at approximately thirty years, it can be seen that the Nation's popu-
lation, with the help of immigration, continued to double each generation
until the generation of 1870 reached 1900. The Southeast, receiving little
foreign immigration after the colonial period and contributing greatly to
migration to other areas, ceased to double in the generation 1840 to 1870.
Only twice since 1840, the decades 1870 to 1880 and 1930 to 1940, has
the region shown a higher rate of recorded increase than the Nation.
The rising line of Figure 7 does not, however, represent the curve
of natural increase of the American people. Immigration of the foreign-
Figure 7. Population Increase, United States and Southeast, 1 790-1946
POPULATION
(MILLIONS)
140 r
1790 1800 1810 I8e0
Source: See Figure 6.
1930 1940
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
15
born had reached about 14,000 per year in the 1820's and increased rapidly
to over half a million in the 1880's. In the first decade of the twentieth
century it reached the amazing average of approximately 900,000 persons
per year. Since then it has fallen off until in the decade after 1930 it
averaged around 50,000 a year and was sometimes exceeded by those leav-
ing the country. The Southeast received but little of this immigration after
the 1820's and thus its changes come nearer representing the forces of
natural increase and internal migration.
Since the region's difficulties have sometimes been blamed on the
quality of the original stock, we may well compare the regional-national
distribution of ethnic stocks in the early formative period. For colonial
and ante-bellum populations we can make use of three measures: (1) the
allocation of family names in the 1790 Census by national and linguistic
stocks, (2) the location of congregations of major religious bodies in 1775,
(3) and the distribution of the foreign -born population by nationality in
the Census of 1850.
Table 2. Estimated Number of White Persons Belonging to Indicated
National or Linguistic Stocks, United States and Southeast, 1790
Enumerated Area
Continental A
ea
Stock
Number
Percent
Percent
United
States
Southeast
United
States
Southeast
Difference
United
States
Southeast
Difference
Total
3,172,444
1,933,416
276,940
260,322
190,075
115,886
100,000
60,900
21,100
219,805
1,017,408
662,328
65,499
126,564
69,666
52,948
4,100
20,000
4,425
11,878
100.0
60.9
8.7
8.2
6.0
3.6
3.2
1.9
0.6
0.0
6.9
100.0
6S.1
6.4
12.4
6.9
5.2
0.4
2.0
0.4
0.0
1.2
4.2
-2.3
4.2
0.9
1.9
-2.8
0.1
-0.2
0.0
-5.7
100.0
60.1
8.6
8.1
5.9
3.6
3.1
2.3
0.7
0.8
6.8
100.0
62.7
6.3
12.0
6.6
5.0
0.4
3.1
0.4
2.4
1.1
2 7
—2 3
3 9
0 7
1 4
Dutch
—2 7
0 8
—0 3
1 6
5 7
Source: Mary Alice Eaton, The Provenience of the Southern People, 1500-1850 (unpublished paper, University of North Caro-
lina, 1939). Computed from Annual Report of the American Historical Society, I, Tables 11, 13, pp. 124-125.
The preponderance of English stocks among the white population of
the Southeast is of long standing. It existed, as early records show, at
the First Census and increased as foreign immigration tended more and
more to settle in the Northeast. The Re-port of the Committee on Lin-
guistic and National Stocks in the Population of the United States esti-
mated for the continental area that 60.1 percent of the family names in
the census of 1790 were of English origin (Table 2). In the Southeast
this proportion reaches 62.7 percent. When the Scotch and the Ulster-
Scotch are added the proportion becomes 81.3 percent for the region as
against 74. 1 percent for the Nation. Data for the enumerated area gives the
i6
ALL THESE PEOPLE
region a higher proportion of Scotch and English stock, 84.4 to 75.1 per-
cent for the Nation. The Nation exceeded the Southeast in the propor-
tion of German, Dutch, and Swedish stock. The Southeast of 1790 ex-
ceeded in the proportion of Spanish, French, and Irish stock in the con-
tinental area.
The report underestimated, if anything, the importance of the Scotch
group for the future. They constituted 12 percent of the total, to which
can be added the 6.6 percent assigned to Ulster-Scotch. This gave the
Southeast 18.6 percent of their stock Scotch as against 14 percent for the
Nation. Next in the region came Germans with 6.3 percent and Irish with
5 percent. Only the French, among other groups, reached as high as 3.1
percent and the Spanish as high as 2.4 percent of the total.
Table 3. Percentage Distribution of Congregations,
United States and Southeast, 1775
Percent
Percent of
United
States
total in
Southeast
Denomination
Percent
Percent of
United
Denomination
United
States
Southeast
Differ-
ence
United
States
Southeast
Differ-
ence
States
total in
Southeast
100.0
20.7
18.2
15.4
IS. 3
9.6
4.9
4.7
100.0
0.4
24.6
26.0
30.1
8.9
2.9
3.9
-20.3
6.4
10.6
14.8
- 0.7
- 2.0
- 0.8
25.7
0.4
33.0
43.4
52.4
23.9
15.1
21.3
Dutch Reformed .
Methodist
Roman Catholic. .
3.7
2.0
1.7
1.0
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.2
1.1
0.0
1.3
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.0
-3.7
-0.7
-1.6
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
0.2
0.0
-1.1
0.0
Congregational . .
Presbyterian. . . .
16.9
1.8
16.1
12.5
12.5
60.0
Germ an Reformed
French Protestant
Other
28.6
0.0
Source: Mary Alice Eaton, The Provenience of the Southern People, 1500-1850 (unpublished paper, University of North Caro-
lina, 1939). Computed from J. K. Wright (ed.), Atlas of the Historical Geography of the United States, Plate 86.
Some corroboration of this ethnic distribution can be secured from an
analysis of the number of congregations established by 1775 (Table 3).
To some extent church membership may suggest class alignment and ethnic
groups in the population. One drawback in using this material for esti-
mate is to be found in the unknown size of the congregations. From rural
to urban places this factor must have varied greatly. There is available,
however, no method by which allowance can be made for these variations.
By these criteria both the Nation and the region were overwhelmingly
Protestant and English in 1775. One-half of one percent of the congre-
gations were Jewish and Catholic in the area as compared with 1.9 percent
for the Nation. Germanic and Dutch congregations reached 7.6 percent
of the total in the Southeast as compared with 14.8 percent in the Nation.
The South's most important groups were Baptist, Episcopal, and Presby-
terian accounting respectively for 30.1, 26.0, and 24.6 percent of the
region's congregations. The region had 52.4 percent of all the Baptist
congregations in the country, 43.4 percent of the Episcopal, and 33 percent
of the Presbyterian churches. If we might accept the conclusion that from
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
17
the Episcopal churches were to come the upper-class groups, from the
Presbyterian the middle class, and from the Baptist and Methodist the
middle and lower classes we would have some idea of the emerging class
structure. Actually it is doubtful that any such division of class groups is
warranted by the facts. The major lack in the Southeast is in Congrega-
tional churches for the region has only 0.4 percent of the Nation's total.
Methodist groups had shown little development as yet, less than 2 percent
of the churches belonging to that denomination. Important in the social
fabric were the Friends who had 8.9 percent of the region's congregations
and 9.6 percent of the Nation's.
Table
Nationality of the Foreign-Born Population,
United States and Southeast, 1850
Number
Percent
Nationality
United States
Southeast
United States
Southeast
Difference
Total
2,210,839
961,719
583,774
278,675
147,711
70,550
54,069
29,868
13,358
13,317
12,678
9,848
5,772
3,679
3,559
3,113
1,838
1,684
1,414
1,313
1,274
1,135
1,106
946
86
551
8,802
157,773
62,794
45,110
14,083
1,546
6,337
14,815
538
1,583
603
129
315
2,438
1,556
441
1,802
442
65
214
208
307
77
50
276
35
174
1,815
100.0
43.5
26.4
12.6
6.7
3.2
2.4
1.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.35
100.0
39.6
28.5
8.9
1.0
4.0
9.4
0.3
1.0
0.4
0.1
1.0
1.6
1.0
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.05
0.0
0.2
- 0.0
0.1
1.7
-3.9
2.1
-3.7
-5.7
0.8
7.0
-1.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.5
0.6
1.3
0.8
0.1
1.0
0.2
-0.05
0.0
0.05
0.15
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
1.35
Germany
British America
Wales
Switzerland
Holland
West Indies
Italy
Sweden
Spain
Denmark
Central and South America
Portugal
Asia
Turkey
Greece
Other
Source: Mary Alice Eaton, The Provenience of the Southern People, 1500-1850 (unpublished paper. University of North Caro-
lina, 1939). Computed from Seventh Census of the United States, 1850, Table XV, p. xxxvii.
The extent to which these colonial stocks were to be reenforced can be
gathered from an analysis of the foreign-born population reported in the
Census of 1850 (Table 4). In that year 2,210,839 foreign-born lived in
the United States. Only 7.1 percent of this number lived in the South-
east. Here much of the variety of ethnic stocks can be traced to one State,
Louisiana. Predominant groups can be compared for the Nation and the
region. Forty-three and a half percent of the Nation's foreign-born were
Irish as compared with 39.6 percent for the region} 26.4 percent were
German for the Nation and 28.5 percent for the region. In the Nation
12.6 percent were English as compared with 8.9 percent in the South.
The South, however, had 9.4 percent French as compared with only 2.4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 5. Decennial Change in Population by Race,
Southeast, 1 790-1940
(Population
n thousands)
Year
Total
Percent
White
Percent
Free colored
Percent
Slave
Percent
population*
change
population
change
population
change
population
change
1790
1,583**
1,017
20
546
1800
2,201**
39.0
1,427
-^0:3
33
65.6
742
35.9
1810
2,983**
35.5
1,885
32.1
58
75.8
1,040
40.2
1820
3,906
30.9
2,437 .
29.3
77
32.8
1,391
33.8
1830
5,144**
31.7
3,170
30.1
107
39.0
1,868
34.3
1840
6,359**
23.6
3,901
23.1
127
18.7
2,331
24.8
1850
8,044**
26.5
4,949
-26.9
132
3.9
2,962
27.1
1860
9,655
20.0
5,946
-20.1
143
8.3
3,564
20.3
1870
9,990
3.5
6,078
2.2
3,908
5.4
1880
13,047
30.6
7,803
28.4 •
5,238
34.0
1890
15,33d
17.5
9,424
—20.8,
5,898
12.6
1900
18,074
17.9
11,212
-19.0
6,851
16.2
1910
20,786
15.0
13,271
18.4
7,500
9.5
1920
22,860
10.0
15,291
15.2
7,550
0.7 »
1930
25,551
11.8
17,746
16.1
7,784
3.1
1940
28,261
10.6
20,059
13.0
8,169
5.0
•Includes all other persons.
••Excludes all other persons.
fPercentage based on total number of Negroes in the population in 1860. ..,..,
Source: H. L. Geisert, The Balance of Inter-State Migration in the Southeast, (unpublished doctoral dissertation. University ot
North Carolina, 1938), p. 82; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, Second Series, State Bulletins, Table 4.
percent in the Nation. Excepting the Scotch who reached 4 percent in the
region, no other foreign group was of especial importance.
The region's substitute for the labor force afforded by immigration
was of course the Negro slave. The slave trade was outlawed in 1808,
and practically all of the growth of slave population after this date came
from natural increase. Examination of Table 5 shows that the recorded
slave population increased at a faster rate than the white population in
every decade from 1790 to i860 except the first. Throughout this period
it made up more than one-third of the population of the Southeast, increas-
ing slightly from 34.4 percent to 36.6 percent of the total. The decade
1820 to 1830 was the last in which free colored population showed a higher
rate of increase than slaves. After that period the practice of manumission
slackened, freedmen were forced to migrate from some States, and their
rate of natural increase was likely lower than that of the slaves.
On the surface, the Census of 1870 indicated the demoralizing effect
of the Civil War, for the increase of Negro population dropped from
16.9 percent to 5.4 percent, while white population increase dropped from
20.1 percent to 2.2 percent. Taken under the disturbed conditions of
Reconstruction, the census undoubtedly represents an undercount of the
total population of the South, even though the loss of West Virginia
accounts for some of the decrease. This is indicated by the jump to a 28.4
percent increase in white and 34.0 percent increase in Negro population
in the next decade. Negro increase has consistently declined, falling below
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
19
10 percent in every decade since 1900. The low point was reached in
1 9 10- 1 920 when Negro migration gives the Southeast a recorded increase
of only 0.7 percent. The white population increase of the region declined
to 13 percent in 1930-40. Its rate of increase, however, has consistently
been from two to five times greater than that of the Negro.
TREND OF RURAL AND URBAN GROWTH
The curve of rural and urban growth goes far to explain regional
variation in population increase. Figure 8 shows that increases in rural
Figure 8.
PERCENT
60
Urban Population as Percentage of the Total Population.
United States and Southeast, 1 790-1 940
50
40
30-
20
UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST
^
A
y
r
s
•Jl"
J — I
1790 I8K)
Source: See Figure 6.
1830
I860
1870
1890
1910
1990
population have tended to dominate southern regional development
throughout its history. From the First Census in 1790 to the Fifth in
1830 population in urban areas in the United States grew from 201,655
to 1,127,247 — from 5.1 to 8.8 percent of the total population. By that
time the Southeast which began with 1.8 percent urban had only 3.4 per-
cent of its people in cities as compared with 14.4 percent in the North-
20
ALL THESE PEOPLE
V
east. Fifty years later, in 1880, the region still had less than ten per-
cent of its people urban, and it had been passed by all the other regions
except the Southwest. Not until 1890 was the region to find more than
one-tenth, 13.2 percent, of its people in cities. By this decade the Nation
was over one-third (35.1 percent) urban. Forty years was to place over
56 percent of the Nation's inhabitants in cities, but 1930 served to bring
the Southeast to 29.8 percent urban, slightly past the point reached by the
Nation in 18 80. In 1930, almost three-fourths in the Northeast, two-
thirds in the Far West, and three-fifths in the Middle States were urban
dwellers. By 1940 the Southeast had not yet placed one-third of its
people within the circle of urbanism. From 1930 to 1940 many of the
Nation's most urban areas declined, but in the South the increase con-
tinued.
The combined effect of the regional growth of our population in the
diverse trends of westward settlement and urbanization is summarized in
the westward march of the center of population (Figure 9). The term
center of population is defined by the Bureau of the Census as that point
which may be considered the center of gravity of the country. It is thus
the point upon which the United States would balance if it were a rigid
plane without weight and the population distributed thereon with each
Figure 9. Movement of the Geographic Center of the Population,
United States, 179 0-1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940. Map.
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
21
individual being assumed to have equal weight and to exert influence on a
central point proportional to his distance from the. point.
In 150 years the center of demographic gravity has moved westward
602 miles from a point 23 miles east of Baltimore, Maryland, to two miles
southeast of Carlisle, Indiana. The greatest movement was in the decade
1850 to i860 when the center advanced 80.6 miles. The least movement
westward occurred from 1910 to 1920 when it advanced only 9.8 miles.
The point farthest north was the 1790 location, and the point farthest south
was the 1940 location, but the difference was only 22.5 miles.
The growth of our people finds another record in the density of settle-
ment. Density of population is largely a function of urban concentration
except for the agricultural population where it is a function of the inten-
sity of utilization of land, which depends largely on fertility and rain-
fall. The Southeast, considering its rurality, ranks surprisingly high in
density of population, coming after the Northeast and the Middle States.
Here the 1940 Census came at a time to record the cumulative effect of
the great drought on the Northwest.
Figure 10 shows that practically all of Rhode Island, Massachusetts,
and Connecticut fall in the area of maximum density, as do most of New
Jersey, half of Pennsylvania, and much of New York. Large groups of
counties with high density are also located in the Southern Appalachian
coal fields of Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky, the textile areas of
Figure 10. Density of Population by Counties, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-3, No. 20.
22 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure ii. Population Distribution of the United States, 1940
fv *5T""~"~--—
■ ' i*r' /
i^^L^, Vr~~]~ -
■ ■ ' * *L"
>;-:.'v'
v.':'*r- • \ ■ri——_ .•/'«■ •£ '■./"■■<•— J."..: •■•„■- i"
* '.' :' ;"' •' ■.
• ' iL-r
"T* ' ,-. ,'.X^,V>V''"' * ; 1/
* ■. '
.' ' '"' I
}M%
Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce.
the Virginia and Carolina Piedmont, industrial areas bordering Lake Erie,
Michigan, and the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Puget Sound districts.
Figure n, with each dot representing 2,000 population, indicates the
extent to which urban concentrations are involved in areas of high den-
sity. The density of the South is seen to depend on a relatively dense
agricultural population rather than upon great urban concentration as in
the Northeast. The Middle States possess a balance of relatively dense
agricultural population with large urban centers.
In contrast, the counties with an average density of less than two per-
sons per square mile are all located west of the 98th meridian, the so-called
"rainfall line" that runs from Valley City, North Dakota, through Austin,
Texas. Here rainfall is adequate for grazing and extensive agriculture
rather than for general agriculture. In this territory density that exceeds
18 persons per square mile is explained by the presence of large cities,
increased rainfall, or irrigation projects. The dot map presents this
phenomenon more accurately.
Thus the people grew and thus we could hope they would continue
to grow, if growth meant survival and increased well-being. The immedi-
ate future growth of the Southern people will spring from the regional
trends in fertility, mortality, and migration, which we shall shortly dis-
cuss. Such growth, however, is hardly predictable apart from the Nation's
growth and development. Figure 12 furnishes one such projection. It
HOW THE PEOPLE GREW
23
FIGURE 12. POPULATION OF THE SOUTH-
EAST BY DECADES WITH LOGISTIC CURVE
FITTED: ACTUAL 183O-I930, TRENDS,
193O-I960
POPUmTlONIMlUJONg
3 CENSUS FIGURES
- LOGISTIC CURVE
- THOMPSON MO WHEUTOtt ESTIMATE. NO MIGRATION
- THOMPSON AND WHELPTON ESTIMATE, WITH MIGRATION
POPULATION OF THE SOUTHEAST BY OECAOES WITH LOGISTIC CURVE FITTED. 18301340
Source: See Figure 6. Warren S. Thompson
and P. K. Whelpton, Estimates of Future
Population by States (Washington, D. C:
National Resources Board, 1934). Mimeo-
graphed.
fits the logistic curve to a century of population growth in the Southeast,
1830-1930, and projects it to i960 under three assumptions: (1) the
trend of the curve, (2) no migration, and (3) migration assumed as of
the decade 1929- 1930. These assumptions were tested when the regional
population for 1940, 28,262,000, was superimposed on the three pro-
jections. The point at which this dot fell (Figure 12) suggests that the
population of the Southeast increased as though little or no migration had
taken place in the depression decade.
It is to the record of the decade that we turn our attention before we
discuss the trends of fertility and migration behind regional-national
growth.
CHAPTER 3
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE
Every ten years the shutter of that decennial camera, the United States
Census, clicks to take a still picture of the American people as of one
instant, midnight April i. These periods, when for a moment we feel —
if we can accept the census as accurate — that we know who and where
the people are, give us bench marks of change from which to calculate the
progress of the Nation. It is the purpose of the present chapter to
examine the record of the recent decades.
Here it would serve us well to keep in mind the significance of the
particular moment at which the camera of the census makes its record.
Our recent decades may be characterized somewhat as follows:
1 9 10- 1 920 — Decade of Economic Expansion. World War I
1 920- 1 930 — Decade of Post- War Prosperity
1 930- 1 940 — Decade of World Depression
1 940- 1 9 50 — Decade of World War II
Figure 13, which gives the trend of economic activity in terms of
physical production and changing price levels enables us to relate the
population census to the flow of time. Thus we shall be prepared to find
that the 1920's was a period of great rural-urban migration, that the
1930's checked the process, that the 1940 Census recorded some of the
results of the depression decade without forecasting many of the conditions
of the coming war.
The United States is approaching its demographic maturity for its rate
of growth is slowing down. The 1940 Census found 131,669,275 people
in our country, hardly nine million more than were counted ten years,
before. This was an increase of 7.2 percent in ten years and represented
the lowest rate of gain the country had seen since the census was first taken
in 1790. It was less than half the rate of growth from 1920 to 1930,
when our population increased by 16.1 percent. The Southeast increased
by some 2,700,000 in 1940 — a gain of 10. 6 percent.
[24]
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE 25
Figure 13. Economic Cycles in the United States, 1 900-1 943
•WHOLESALE
M PR CCS
TPfliCC
r SCALE
WAR
1
Bull
MARKET
II
ERC
SPt
ER
UTl
PROSPERm
NEW ERA" 8
PROSPERITr
COM
140
I
120
f!
or
iaoi
f /
RICH
m-
-"
L0
WW
**"
80
eo
POST WAR
DEPRESSION
40
1 1
l IW POST WAR
▼ I'DEPRCSSION
|lMt
mi
IM>
Ufl
1M4
IMS
IW*
■HI
1W
IW
nil
1911
l»U
mi
IIM
IMS
Ull
■111
mi[ui»[i»»[ii2i|Ha[»u|i«M|ius[iui[un[mi[»»|i>»
on
I8MIII3J
""
ini
l»M|ISJ7
m
11a
1940
1H1
1MZ
IMi
0
Source: Leonard P. Ayres, The Cleveland Trust Company, 1943.
The country undoubtedly is reaching its maturity when it will taper
off and cease to grow. Population experts agree that two things are re-
sponsible: the United States birth rate " has fallen sharply during the ten
years, and there has been no large amount of foreign immigration. That
it is a little too early, however, for anyone to worry about the effect of
declining population on our national defense is shown by the fact that we
have 16.8 million men of military age, 21 to 35.
The great urban and industrial areas, like the Northeast with New
York and Pennsylvania, and the Middle States with Chicago and Detroit,
Figure 14. Percentage Change in Total Population,
United States, 1930- 1940
15.0 AND OVER
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series PH-3.
26 ALL THESE PEOPLE
still lead in population but the regions of agriculture like the Southeast
and the Southwest are gaining on them. The Wheat Belt of the North-
west might have shared in the gains of the other agricultural areas had
it not been for the drought. As it was, Nebraska, Kansas, the two Dakotas,
and Oklahoma lost more than 290,000 people, mainly from their farms.
With Vermont they were the only States to lose population (Figure 14).
The Far West gained a million and a half people, for it was mainly to
States like California, Oregon, and Washington that the Dust Bowl and
other migrants went. Americans have become climate conscious, and the
resulting struggle between California and Florida has become a kind of
census horse race. From 1920 to 1930, California's population increased
65.7 percent to Florida's 51.6 percent; from 1930 to 1940, Florida in-
creased 29.2 percent and California 21.7 percent.
THE RURAL-URBAN CONTRAST
The important contrast in our population growth, however, is that
between the urban and industrial areas which grow by migration and the
rural areas which grow by natural increase, that is, by the surplus of births
over deaths. When we look at the Nation's regions it would seem that
th.e decade of the great depression was devoted to undoing much of the
work accomplished by the period of prosperity, 1920 to 1930. The
Northeast and Middle States respectively have 40 and 36 million people,
67.5 percent of the Nation's population. From 1920 to 1930 these indus-
trial areas led the country with increases of over five and four million
people, amounting to gains of 15.9 and 14.5 percent (Figure 15). By
1940 their rates of increase had fallen to 5.1 and 5.2 percent. Figure
15 shows that every region shared in this loss of growth from the 1920's
to the 1930's.
The twenties were our period of greatest migration to cities and it has
been estimated that four metropolitan areas, New York, Chicago, Detroit,
and Los Angeles attracted four and a half million people — a figure well
over half the net movement from farms to cities during the decade. Migra-
tion was the deciding factor in their large growth; but by 1940 only
the Far West had continued its great increase and there the gains had
fallen from 2.6 to 1.6 millions and the rate of increase from 46.8 to 18.8
percent. In the Northwest, Northeast, and Middle States, the rate of
increase fell below the Nation's average (Figure 15).
The Southeast, as the census shows, gained new significance as the
seedbed of the Nation. From 1920 to 1930 the region gained 2.7 million
people which was 15.8 percent of the total increase for the Nation. For
the 1930's its increase was again 2.7 million, but this time the gain was
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE 27
Figure 15. Percentage Increase in Population, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1920-1930, 1930-1940
UNITEO STATES
NORTHEAST
MIDDLE STATES
SOUTHEAST
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
FAR WEST
^SSJ^^SS^
v^SNSNSSXSNSNS^
SN>SS>C^^^S^
1930-1940
ssss
s^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
0 10 20 30
Source: See Figure 14. Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Table 6.
40
SO
over 30 percent of the Nation's growth. The Southwest including Okla-
homa which lost population, accounted for 7.9 percent of the decade's
growth (Figure 15).
These population changes are shown by counties in Figure 16. Large
blocks of counties with increasing population are shown in the south
Appalachians, Florida, and along the Gulf of Mexico, and in most of the
West beyond the Great Plains. There the decrease ranged from the
Canadian border through Texas.
These considerations call for a closer comparison of population in-
creases in the cities and in the countryside. There are now almost 74 1/2
million people in our urban areas as compared with almost 57 1/4 million
people in rural areas. Over the whole course of our history cities have
grown much faster than the whole population. As indicated, this trend
is slowing down. While the urban population increased during the thirties
from 56.2 to 56.5 percent of the whole, its rate of growth was only 7.9
28 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 16. Population Change by Counties, United States, 1930-1940
*Ste*£^^^m-
KM U • . J
*"S~~~b iH|
• s
EKj|
Jv^3
' ''Wl
WspU MP* flfe^.
j^siir
C» r-i I ./"
1 9m "^ &
m*2
"'T 7; .
mj^m,
rajs*
^1h~1 aec±3d rG®
Hr?
rfr
rW ''pKwfc1 "^ 7
^ DXp
~W§/}n^WAr\ 1
' ■' ■ i ftx^l^iy^' *
S®Pa Ib,
J
§
r ^''i-
gfcjj U*^j
wS
MM
LEGEND ^^^B
Sr Ivw '
»™
PERCENT OF DECREASE
1 J 7.2 A«o Over.
^br+%i ,%£&)><
Y^fti
i3K
□ '
8 To 71
i^Cl
CD 0
O To 3.5
egg; *'"
PERCENT 0
INCREASE
ra °
O To 3.5
ESI 3
6 To 7.1
M '
2 To 10.7
H23 10
8 To 14.3
BH3
4 And Oveb
J*^
•*"■■'•"■" - ™—
>Wf*«l
Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce.
percent as compared with 27 percent from 1920 to 1930. Moreover, the
increase in rural population was greater than in the previous decade, 6.4
percent as compared with 4.7 percent. Figure 17 compares the six regions
in the proportion of rural and urban growth. Only the Far West ex-
ceeded the southern regions in percentage increase.
The rural farm population remained practically stationary from 1930
to 1940, increasing only 0.2 percent. This, however, represents a reversal
in trend, since this group declined 3.8 percent in the previous decade.
Between 1930 and 1940 the number of farms declined by 3.1 percent, so
that the average number of persons per farm increased from 4.8 to
5.0. The Far West was the only region to show large gains. The North-
west lost 13.5 of its rural farm population, the Southwest 7 percent, while
the Southeast and the Middle States remained practically stationary with
a 2.2 and 1.5 percent increase, respectively. By States the increase in rural
farm people ranged from 19.2 percent in Connecticut and 18.7 percent in
West Virginia to losses of over 20 percent in South Dakota (Figure 18).
The most disturbing fact shown by the census was this same growth of
our rural people in certain special areas during the very time that the
depression was undermining the agriculture on which they live. This
occurred at a time when the government was struggling with the problem
of lost export markets, agricultural surpluses, and reduced crop quotas
for every farm. Many of the farm increases occurred on poor land, in
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE
29
Figure 17. Percentage Change in Total, Urban and Rural Population,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1 930-1 940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-3, No. 7; P-10, No. 2.
rural problem areas, or in the suburban fringes around cities. In a few
cases there were new lands opened up to which people could go. The
greatest increases were in rural areas of southern Florida and California
where a large migrant-labor problem existed and labor camps were taxed
to the limit.
Other large increases came in new lands of the western Cotton and
Delta areas, rising to 30 percent in the southeastern Missouri bootheel
where tenant strikes and roadside camps showed the danger signs of too
many people on the land. Increases also occurred in mountainous sec-
tions, the Rockies, Appalachians, and Ozarks, where during the depression
many small subsistence farms have been taken up. The good commercial
farming areas of the old plantation South, the corn belt, and the dairy
regions remained practically stationary (Figure 16).
/~-
1
3o ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 18. Percentage Change in Rural Farm Population, i 930-1 940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-IO, No. 2.
The rural farm population, by 1940, made up 23.0 percent of the
Nation's total in 1940 as compared with 24.6 percent in 1930. By States
(Figure 19) it ranged from 1.4 percent in Rhode Island to 64..1 percent
in Mississippi. The three agrarian regions were the Northwest and the
Southwest each with 34 percent on farms, and the Southeast where 44
percent of the people lived on farms. Only 7.8 percent of the people of
the Northeast have rural farm residence.
The greatest gains of the decade were found in the rural nonfarm popu-
lation which increased 14.2 percent, almost twice as fast as the urban
population. This group amounted to slightly over 27 million or 20.5 per-
cent of the 1940 population. Rural nonfarm population is more evenly
distributed among the regions than any other residence group. They
ranged from 26.3 percent in the Northwest to 17.7 percent in the Middle
States.
Sometimes regarded as village population, this group presents extremely
different characteristics the country over. It meets two negative criteria.
It must live outside incorporated places of 2,500 or more but must not live
on farms. In terms of density it ranges from population living on isolated
nonfarm homes in the open country to the people living just outside the
city limits of great metropolitan centers. The Bureau of the Census ex-
presses the view that barely one-third of this group in 1940 lived in the
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE
3i
Figure 19. Rural Farm Population as Percentage of Total Population,
United States, 1940
Source: See Figure
13,000-odd rural incorporated places, and that probably not more than
another third lived in unincorporated villages and suburban areas.
In part, the growth of rural nonfarm population reflects the growth of
metropolitan districts from 1930 to 1940. While the central cities in-
creased 6.1 percent, the areas outside the cities grew by 16.9 percent. Much
of this was rural nonfarm territory as denned by the census.
The West and Southeast regions led with about 25 percent of the popu-
lation in rural nonfarm areas. By States, our Figure 20 shows this range
from 7 percent in Rhode Island to 46.6 percent in Nevada. Increases in
this category were greatest in western regions, least in the Northeast, and
medium in the Southeast.
In numbers and in wealth the Nation's cities have long been ahead
of the rural areas. Table 6 indicates that the Southeast has 654 cities as
compared with 3,464 for the Nation. The region contains no city larger
than 500,000 and only 32.1 percent of its population is urban as compared
with $6.5 percent in the Nation.
For the first time since the census was begun the figures indicated
that the big cities may be giving way to the suburbs and small cities.
Smaller cities grew much faster than large ones from 1930 to 1940. Four
hundred and twelve cities in the United States have a population of 25,000
32
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 20. Rural Nonfarm Population as Percentage of Total
Population, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 18.
Table 6. Number of Cities by Size and Population in Each Size Group as
Percentage of Total Population, United States and Southeast, 1940
United States
Southeast
City Size
Number cities
Percent of population
Number cities
Percent of population
3,464
5
9
23
55
107
213
665
965
1,422
56.5
12.1
4.9
5.9
5.9
5.6
5.6
7.6
5.1
3.8
654
"5
9
20
30
98
170
232
32.1
1,000,000 or more
500,000- 1,000,000
250,000- 500,000
100,000- 250,000
50,000- 100,000
25,000- 50,000
10,000- 25,000
5,000- 10,000
2,500- 5,000
5^9
4.6
4.8
3.5
5.2
4.1
4.0
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, First Series, United States Summary, Tables 10, 11, 13.
or more. They hold 52.7 millions of our people but their population
grew only 7.1 percent. In contrast, a gain of 30.4 percent, more than
four times as great, was recorded among this group of cities from 1920
to 1930 (Figure 21). The Southeast has 64 in this size class contain-
ing some 18.8 percent of its population.
There are now 92 cities with 100,000 population or more. They con-
tain almost 38 million people and increased only 4.6 percent. Only 14
of this size are found in the Southeast but they contain 10.5 percent of the
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE
Figure 21. Percentage Change in Urban Population by Size of City,
United States, 1 920-1 930, 1 930-1 940
•920-1930 CITY SIZE 1930-19*0
(THOUSANDS)
33
50 40 30 20 10 o> "MUSABUWo 10
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population First Series, Tables 10 and 11.
region's population. Newcomers to this list of figures were Sacramento,
California, and Charlotte, North Carolina, while El Paso, Texas, Lynn,
Massachusetts, and Evansville, Indiana, dropped below 100,000. Twenty-
seven of the cities of over a 100,000 lost people from 1930 to 1940. Of
the ten largest cities, population actually declined in four— Philadelphia,
Cleveland, St. Louis, and Boston — and in Pittsburgh and Chicago the in-
creases were unimportant, 0.3 and 0.6 percent. New York City gained
the largest numbers, almost 450,000, but Washington, the "Boom City
on the Potomac," made the largest relative gain, 36.2 percent. The great-
est gain in the country was a 331 percent increase for Miami Beach,
Florida, while Miami itself grew $5-6 percent and jumped all the way
from the 78th to the 48th city in the country. Among the moderate-sized
cities Austin, Texas, with an increase of 65.5 percent, made the best gains.
In what parts of the country have our cities been growing and where
have they had the hardest sledding? The rate of urban growth showed
the widest variations between the main regions of the country. It was
greatest in the southern regions which had the smallest proportion, 29.8
percent, of its population in cities in 1930; and it was the least, 3.6 per-
cent, in the Northeast, which was 74.4 percent urban in 1930. The Far
West, already two-thirds urban, continued its city growth by virtue of
continued migration in the 1930's. By States, the rate of urban growth
ranged from 65.1 percent in New Mexico to less than 1 percent in Penn-
sylvania and Massachusetts. Five Southeastern States showed gains in
34
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 22. Percentage Change in Urban Population,
United States, 1930-1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-3, No. 7.
Figure 23. Urban Population as Percentage of Total Population,
United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 22.
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE 35
excess of 20 percent (Figure 22). There was, however, no prospect of
immediate equalization among the States and regions. The Southeast
still remained the least urban and the Northeast the most urbanized. By
States, Mississippi represented the essence of agrarianism, with only 19.8
percent urban } Rhode Island the quintessence of urbanism, 91.6 per cent
(Figure 23).
It was thus the highly urbanized areas that failed to maintain gains
in city population. Together the Northeast and Middle States contain
7 1. 1 percent of our population found in cities of 10,000 or more (Table
7). From 1930 to 1940 their proportion in this size city grew 3.7 percent.
On the other hand, other regions saw their similar populations make large
gains. Thus, in the Southwest they increased by 21.4 percent} in the South-
east by 19.2 percentj in the Far West by 15.1 percent} and in the North-
west by 1 3. 1 percent (Table 7). It is significant that while the total popu-
lation in the drought States declined, their cities continued to grow. More
significant is the growth in the South. While the Southeast increased its
proportion of the Nation's population in cities of 10,000 and over from
9.8 to 10.8 percent, the Northeast saw its share decline from 43 to 41.5
percent. These figures suggest that in contrast with densely settled areas
the southern regions continued its movement towards cities and indus-
trialization throughout the depression.
Table 7. Percentage Distribution and Percentage Change of Urban
Population in Cities of 10,000 and Over, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1940
Region
1930
1940
Percent
change
Region
1930
1940
Percent
change
United States
100.0
43.0
9.8
4.3
100.0
41.5
10.8
4.8
7.5
3.8
19.2
21.4
30.7
3.2
8.2
0.8
29.6
3.4
8.8
1.1
3.6
13.1
15.1
36.2
D. C
S-»irce: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, First Series, United States Summary, Table 11.
METROPOLITAN DISTRICTS
Not all the population of great urban clusters are found within city
limits. For this reason the Bureau of the Census has set up the category
of metropolitan districts in connection with cities of 50,000 or more. In
addition to a central city or cities, adjacent minor civil divisions having
a population density of 150 or more per square mile are included. Such
a district is not a political unit, but is a unified population concentration
and possesses common economic, social, and administrative interests.
In 1940, about half, 47.8 percent, of the Nation's population lived
within the 140 metropolitan districts. The greatest of these was the New
York City-New Jersey concentration which contained in its central cities
36
ALL THESE PEOPLE
almost 8.5 million, with another 3% million in outlying districts. The
Northeast showed (Figure 24) a concentration stretching, with few breaks,
from Boston to Washington and including New York, Trenton, Philadel-
phia, Wilmington, and Baltimore. In contrast the South contained only
31 such areas with an aggregate population of 5,796,153.
Figure 24. Metropolitan Districts of the United States, 1940
Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce.
The population in the Nation's central cities was 42,796,170, and that
in the surrounding civil divisions was 20,169,603, or 32.0 percent of the
total. In the Southeast the outlying districts contained a smaller propor-
tion, 24.7 percent, of the total (Table 8). In the Nation the population
of these areas grew at a rate of 9.3 percent from 1930 to 1940; for the
region they showed an increase of 21.2 percent. Population of the central
cities of the Nation increased only 6.1 percent, whereas in the district out-
side the city limits the population increased 16.9 percent. The Southeast
showed a higher rate of growth with increases of 15.5 percent for the popu-
lation in central cities and a 42.2 percent increase in surrounding townships
(Table 8). Greater proportionate growth of metropolitan districts has
been characteristic in regions of less development.
The Census of 1940 came in time to measure the results of a decade
of depression and attempted recovery but too soon to register the effects
of war on crowded industrial centers. The changes in the growth of our
cities reflect the working of many factors in our economy and our society.
THE RECORD OF THE DECADE 37
Some of these were national and some were regional in scope. Undoubtedly
the greatest single factor affecting all changes, city and country alike, was
the continued decline in births during the last decade. With foreign immi-
gration virtually cut off and internal migration restricted, it is not sur-
prising that the greatest urban growth should occur among the cities located
in the midst of those rural areas whose birth rates remained the highest.
The long depression has been most important, for few industries expanded
and many contracted in the ten years. The belief has been expressed that
relief rather than industrial jobs was the cause of migration to towns.
Others have expressed the opinion that relief actually increased the birth
rate among the very poor. This, however, seems a mistake. While several
million children were born to families on relief, it better suits the facts
to say that they had high birth rates before they came on relief and that
these rates continued.
Table 8. Population Increase in Metropolitan Districts,
United States and Southeast, 1930-1940
Population
Increase
Metropolitan districts*
1930
1940
Number
Percent
United States
Total
57,602,865
40,343,442
17,259,423
30.0
4,783,706
3,777,028
1,006,678
21.0
62,965,773
42,796,170
20,169,603
32.0
5,796,153
4,364,244
1,431,909
24.7
5,362,908
2,452,728
2,910,180
1,012,447
587,216
425,231
9.3
6.1
16.9
21.2
15.5
42.2
In central cities
Outside central cities
Percent outside central cities
Southeast
Total
In central cities
Outside central cities
Percent outside central cities
'■•> in 1930 thC Un'ted StateS there Were 140 metr°P°1;tan districts in 1940 and 133 in 1930; for the Southeast, 31 in 1940 and
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, First Series, United States Summary, Table 18.
Changes in our industrial economy were also reflected by the census.
Partial displacement of coal by oil and hydroelectric power meant declines
in certain cities dependent on steel or coal mining and the rise of popula-
tions, particularly in the Southwest, where cities largely depend on a grow-
ing oil industry. There also was some relocation of industry from large
to smaller cities. Here hydroelectric power played a part as in the textile
industry of the Carolinas and the developing industrial zone of the TVA.
In the main, however, the automobile before the war had done more to
curb the growth of the city than any one thing. The greater numbers in
use, their increased reliability in winter weather, and the accompanying
development of hardsurfaced, all-weather roads enabled our working people
to travel greater distances by auto and bus to and from work. All over
the country the suburban areas grew and the crowded zones inside city
limits shrank or showed but little gain.
38 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Before war bestirred renewed activity we might have concluded that
the great mushroom growth of American cities was drawing to an end.
This might have meant many things for our society. While the metro-
politan areas continued large because of suburban zones, this did the city
governments little good unless the population could be brought inside the
city limits for taxation. While there was less reason than ever for cities
to plan great projects based on hopes of expanding population, they could
begin to look to the crowded and insanitary housing in their slums. With
less immigration it was felt that these areas would gradually be abandoned
by all families who could leave the slums, land values would go down,
and cities should be able, with the aid of the Federal Government, to take
up the slack at the close of the war by greater development in housing,
parks, and recreation. Less and less could the excuse of rapid growth and
crowding be offered for the slums that disgrace America's otherwise modern
cities.
War has changed all this. The thirties were the decade of depression,
but the 1940's bid fair to repeat the twenties as a decade of concentration.
Again heavy industry booms and to Detroit is added Norfolk. At the
close of war the cycle may repeat itself and dispersion begin anew.
Then, with declining births and decreasing migration, our cities will
probably need to build fewer schoolhouses in the future. Thus it may be
that we can devote more of our funds and attention to the improvement of
the process that goes on within these buildings. Along with this, cities should
now take on a more attractive appearance and attempt the development of
institutions devoted to the fine arts and intellectual interests of their
mature and settled population. Even moderate-sized cities can hope to
afford a municipal auditorium which will serve as the home of a local
symphony orchestra, a little theater group, a museum, and many varied
municipal exhibits and gatherings. Our cities are coming of age and there
will be less excuse in the future for the low standards of taste and the
low grade of municipal government which some of them have exhibited.1
1 See "Growth of American Cities in the Last Decade," Statistical Bulletin (New York: Metropolitan
Life Insurance Company, September, 1940).
CHAPTER 4
MALE AND FEMALE
Composition of the population is the scientific if prosaic term used to
designate the interesting division of society into two sexes and many age
groupings. Of all the distinctions between humankind, none exceeds this
in importance to the individuals concerned. Demographers take an equal,
if more scientific, interest. The individual is born into a sex group and
from infancy grows through various age groupings. For the individual,
these conditions of age and sex set up involuntary groupings to which under
the rule of biology and culture are adjusted his routines and functions,
habits and personality. Any imbalance or changes in age and sex ratios
will affect both the reproductive and economic functions of a society.
The regional analysis of these ratios helps to estimate the effect of
past events and point the trend of future ones. The sex ratio of a popu-
lation for example is but little affected by normal changes in birth or death
rates, so that any excess of females in a region usually measures the amount
of emigration or the effect of war. While changes in age composition are
also affected by war and migration, they can be traced to the effect' of a
falling birth rate and an increasing life expectancy. Future changes in
age groups always grow out of the present distribution. In this way, the
composition of the population throws important light on such diverse
topics as the task of child welfare, the economic burden of education, the
number of available workers, the emergence of problems of youth, and
the extent of the problem of old age security.
SEX RATIOS
Sex has been called "the most fundamental N cleavage in society,"1
creating "involuntary groups"2 into which individuals are born, willy-nilly.
This cleavage decrees for women, along with the biologically determined
function of childbearing, many associated functions which are culturally
1 C. H. Cooley, R. C. Angell, and L. J. Carr, Introductory Sociology (New York: Scribner's, 1933),
p. 219.
3 H. P. Fairchild, General Sociology (New York: Wiley, 1934), p. 4.
[39]
40
ALL THESE PEOPLE
determined. Here exists what might be called a distinctly feminine cul-
ture, predominantly of a primary group nature,3 centered on mating, child
care, and homemaking. These functions afford occupations and patterns
of life more nearly similar for womankind than are the varied means of
gainful employment for the corresponding age groups of men.
We may begin our study by the analysis of regional variations in the
ratio between the sexes, leaving the discussion of age composition for a
later chapter. How evenly are the sexes distributed throughout the coun-
try? Thirty-two States mainly western and agrarian, as Figure 2$ shows,
had more males than females in their population in 1940. This condition,
represented in the sex ratio by a percentage higher than unity, reached
125.4 m Nevada. Fifteen States, mainly southern but including five urban
States had an excess of females, reaching a sex ratio of 95 in Massachusetts.
An equal sex ratio, one male for every female, represented in statistics
by 100, was attained in 1940 by only one State, Pennsylvania.
Figure 25. The Sex Ratio in the Total Population, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1(140, Preliminary Release, Series P-IO, No. 14.
The simplest explanation of extreme dislocation in the sex ratio is mi-
gration. Foreign immigration to the United States has always selected
more males than females. As Figure 25 indicates, this pattern has pre-
dominated in the westward migration of our own population. Urban mi-
gration on the contrary (Figure 26) has selected females so that in our
8 Cooley, Angell, and Carr, op. cit., p. 220.
MALE AND FEMALE 41
Figure 26. The Sex Ratio in the Urban Population, United States, 1940
Source: The Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, Preliminary Release, Series P-6.
urban population only six States, all western except Michigan, have a sex
ratio of over 100. Lowest of all in the number of males are the urban
areas of the Southeast where five States had a sex ratio below 90.
A glance at the sex ratio by regions (Table 9) and by rural-urban
groups indicates that in 1940 the most urban region, the Northeast, and the
most_rural, theSoutheast^ had the lowest sex ratios, 99. The regions of
the West show the greatest male predominance, exceeding 105 in the
Northwest and Far West. 4 low sex ratio, it may be pointed out, is
found in older settled regions and in cities/ The familiar excess of women
over men in the urban environment is found for all regions, with the
Southeast showing the lowest sex ratio, 90.1, and the Far West the high-
est, 98.2. For every region the rural population shows an excess of males.
This is highest in the western areas and lowest agajn in the two eastern
regions. The village and suburban population classified as rural non-
farm shows, except for the Far West, the most evenly balanced sex ratios
of any community, bettering in several regions the balance attained by the
total sex ratio. The Negro has the lowest sex ratio in all regions. All
other colored races show the familiar predominance of males among their
recent migrants.
Differences in sex ratio, as Table 9 indicates, are racial as well as
regional. For the foreign-born the masculine sex ratio is explained by the
42 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 9. Sex Composition of Population, by Race and Residence,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
United States
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Male Female
Male Female
Male Female
Male
Female
Total population .
Sex ratio
66,061,592 65,607,683
100.7
19,883,405 20,083,095
99.0
14,056,436 14,205,393
99.0
4,933,011
101
4,849,326
7
All White
Sex ratio
59,448,548 58,766,322
101.2
18,971,272 19,128,607
99.2
10,060,711 9,998,657
100.6
4,305,992 4,204,885
102.4
Sex ratio
6,269,038 6,596,480
95.0
882,104 943,332
93.5
3,977,757 4,190,795
94.9
545,284
96
567,621
1
Other Races
344,006 244,881
140.5
30,029 11,156
269.2
17,968 15,941
112.7
81,735 76,820
106.4
36,363,706 38,059,996
95.5
14,385,308 14,936,852
96.3
4,304,919 4,777,346
90.1
2,007,334
94
2,134,100
Sex ratio
1
Rural
29,697,886 27,547,687
107.8
5,498,097 5,146,243
106.8
9,751,517 9,428,047
103.4
2,925,677
107
2,715,226
8
Middle States
Northwest
Far West
D.
C.
Male Female
Male Female
Male Female
Male
Female
Total poulation. ..
18,027,616 17,713,958
101.8
3,798,085 3,612,350
105.1
5,045,517 4,797,992
105.2
317,522
395,569
All White
Sex ratio
17,341,752 17,015,559
101.9
3,710,175 3,528,263
105.2
4,830,898 4,643,773
104.0
227,748
246,578
660,036 680,298
97.0
47,907 48,159
99.5
67.27R 67,681
99.4
88,672
98,594
Sex ratio
Sex ratio
25,828 18,101
142.7
70,003 35,928
111.3
147,341 86,538
170.3
1,102
397
Urban
10,747,969 11,131,415
96.6
1,430,165 1,506,003
95.0
3,170,489 3,228,711
98.2
317,522
345,569
Sex ratio
Rural
7,279,647 6,582,543
110.6
2,367,920 2,106,347
112.4
1,875,028 1,569,281
119.5
Source: Sixttenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-10, No. 14; P-6, State Summaries.
selective factor in migration. The Negro in the United States has had an
excess of females, a factor which helps to account for the position of the
Southeast. For the region the white sex ratio is 100.6 ; the colored, 94.9-
This phenomenon deserves further analysis for it helps to shed light on
the whole phenomena of an unbalanced sex ratio.
FACTORS DETERMING SEX COMPOSITION
The most important factors causing differences in the sex ratio of
populations are (1) the sex ratio at birth which, although not constant,
is consistently in favor of males ; (2) age-specific differences in mortality
by sex, which, while showing considerable fluctuations for different periods
and areas, remain on the whole in favor of females; (3) sex differences in
net migration, which so far have always been in favor of males for the
United States as a whole, although cities attract more females than males;
(4) composition of population by age, due to the fact that a "young"
population or one with a rising birth rate will tend to increase its sex
MALE AND FEMALE
43
ratio, while an "aging" population will suffer a decrease in the sex ratio,
since, barring migration, the combined effect of the birth ratio in favor
of males and mortality rates in favor of females will always mean more
males than females among the young and more females than males among
the aged 3 (5) the stillbirth rate of the population. Since the latter is
much higher for males than for females, a high stillbirth rate will mean
more males than females dead before they are born and therefore will
depress -the sex ratio at birth. Thus five factors are listed, the last one
influencing the sex ratio indirectly by affecting the sex ratio at birth.
The first two lines of Table 10 show the sex ratio of the populations
of the Nation and the Southeast for 1930 and 1940. Here it is obvious in
both periods that the ratio for "all white" is much higher than for the
Negroes. Moreover, the sex ratio for both areas and races decreased from
1930 to- 1940. How, shall we explain these differences? Let us begin
with the difference between the races. The first factor listed as contribut-
ing to differences in sex ratio was the sex ratio at birth. Comparing these
ratios in 1930 for both areas (Table 10, line 5), we notice a very con-
siderable difference: the sex ratio at birth for whites is about 106, while
it is only 103 for Negroes. This difference is evidently one of the causes
of a lower sex ratio for the Negro population.
Table 10. Sex Ratios for Selected Vital Statistics, United
States and Southeast, 1930 and 1940
United States
Southeast
Sex ratio and year
All
White
Negro
All
White
Negro
1940
100.7
102.5
I
!
\
10S. 6
1 133.3
106.5
101.2
102.9
94.3
99.9
105.9
133.1
106.7
95.0
97.0
96.1
99.1
103.2
134.1
105.2
99.0
99.6
105.2
136.2
106.5
100.6
101.3
95.1
101.0
106.2
137.9
107.1
94.9
1930
95.2
1929-31
Life-Table Population (Equal num-
Life-Table Population (Actual num-
1930
Births
95.8
98.8
103.1
Stillbirths
134.6
Births and stillbirths
105.3
Note: The white population in the United States as a whole in 1930 has been corrected to include Mexicans, since such defi-
nition was adopted in 1940; the number of whites in the Southeast has been left as reported in 1930 because the negligible num-
ber of Mexicans residing in the Southeast could not affect the sex ratio. The Bureau of Vital Statistics tabulated Mexicans with
colored in 1930.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, preliminary releases Series P-10, Nos. 6, 14; Series P-6; Fifteenth Census of the
United States, 1930, Population, II, Chap. 10, Table 24; Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics, 1930, Tables 2, 11;
Bureau of the Census, United States Life Tables, 1930; all sources used for the computation of Life Tables for the Southeast,
1929-1931.
The question naturally arises: Is this variation in the sex ratio at birth
due to biological differences? While this problem is outside the scope of
our study, still we can be reasonably sure of a negative answer, since the
reported stillbirth rate accounts for most of the difference. Table 10,
line 6, shows that the sex ratio in stillbirths is about 134 for both races,
44 ALL THESE PEOPLE
that is, that many more males than females are lost between the fetal age
of 7 months and birth. Since the stillbirth rate for Negroes is at least
double that for whites,4 the loss of males during prenatal life influences
the sex ratio at birth for Negroes much more than for whites. This is
evident from our computation on line 7 of Table 10. When we add
stillbirths to births and compute their ratio by sex, we see that the new
ratio (based on the assumption of all stillborn babies being born alive)
rises less than one point for whites but at least two points for Negroes
(compare ratios on lines 7 and 5). If we could evaluate the loss of males
through abortions and miscarriages and through all the unregistered still-
births, it is very likely that all the difference between the birth rate ratios
by race could be accounted for. Thus, we have found that the high still-
birth rate of the Negroes lowers their sex ratio at birth and therefore
is one of the causes of the excess of females in their population.
Next, let us consider the influence that sex difference in mortality has
on the sex ratio by race. To isolate the influence of this factor from-the
disturbing effect of all others, we take the sex ratio for the life table popu-
lation computed on the basis of an equal number of births for males and
females (Table 10, line 3). The sex ratios for the populations thus obtained
depend only on sex differences in mortality rates existing for the period
covered by the life table (1929-31). It is evident that the sex ratio should
be below 100, since the life expectation for males is consistently lower than
for femalesj we generally find it to be near 95. However, the sex ratio
for the Negro life table is a little higher than for the white ; this means
that there is less difference in mortality (and consequently, in life expecta-
tion) by sex for Negroes than for whites. Table 11, giving age-specific
death rates and their ratios by sex, shows that, while the mortality of
white males is consistently higher for all age-groups than that for white
women, this is not true for the colored population. For males the infant
death rate is about 30 percent higher than for females in both groups.
But for the colored age-group from 15 to 24, the death rates for both
sexes become equal, due partly to the heavy loss of Negro women through
maternal mortality. Comparing ratios among the older age groups, we see
that the mortality of white men of working age is nearly 50 percent higher
than that of white women. The difference is much less between the colored
sexes, since in our culture Negro women work harder and are less pro-
tected than white women. Our first conclusion, then, is that the difference
in infant death rates by sex is the chief factor in mortality that serves to
lower the sex ratio of the Negro population, while, for whites, the differ-
ence in mortality between sexes depends on differences for all ages and is,
* In 1940, it was 27.6 for whites and ;8.i for Negroes in the United States (Vital Statistics — Special
Reports, Vol. 15, No. 3).
MALE AND FEMALE
Table ii. Age-Specific Death Rates by Sex with Ratio of
Male to Female Rates, United States, 1940
45
White age-specific death rates
Non-white age-specific death rates
Male
Female
Ratio
Male
Female
Ratio
Under 1
11.6
56.7
2.8
1.1
2.0
2.8
5.1
11.4
25.2
54.0
122.2
249.3
9.2
43.6
2.4
0.8
1.4
2.2
3.7
7.5 ,
16.8
41.5
105.6
224.7
126.1
130.0
116.7
137.5
142.9
127.3
137.8
152.0
150.0
130.1
115.7
110.9
15.1
101.2
5.3
1.6
5.0
8.5
13.2
24.5
39.5
56.5
109.7
193.2
12.6
77.4
4.4
1.4
5.0
7.4
11.7
21.1
35.7
46.3
84.7
156.2
119.8
1-4
130.7
S-14.
120.4
15-24
114.3
25-34
100.0
35-44
114.9
45-54
112.8
55-64
116.1
65-74
110.6
75-84
122.0
129.5
123.7
Source: Vital Statistics— S}
iccial Reports, 14
No. 55.
therefore, an even more potent factor in decreasing the sex ratio than it is
for Negroes.
Now let us see whether the two factors analyzed so far are sufficient to
explain the actual sex ratio of the population. In order to combine the
effect of the two factors (sex ratio at birth and sex differences in mor-
tality) and to eliminate the effect of all others, we can weight the number
of males and females in the life table population by the proportion of
births by sex in the actual population. This is the procedure used when
combining the life tables for the two sexes into one table for the total popu-
lation. The result is a sex ratio which is still too low for the white popu-
lation and too high for the Negro (Table 10, line 4). This means that
for the white population there must be another important factor which
tends to increase the sex ratio. This is certainly our third factor— the sex
ratio of immigrants to the United States. One could trace the influence of
this factor for the Nation as a whole by studying the net migration to
the United States by sex. It is simpler, however, to isolate the effect of
this factor by computing sex ratios for the native white and the foreign-
born whites as was done in Table 12. We find that sex ratios for the foreign-
born are very high for the Nation and especially for the Southeast, while
sex ratios of native whites are much lower and very similar for both areas.
Since the percentage foreign-born are of all whites is much lower for the
Southeast, their high sex ratio fails to increase the total sex ratio for all
whites in the Southeast as it does for the Nation, thus explaining the differ-
ence in sex ratio for all whites in both areas (Table 10, line 1).
^ For Negroes, the migration factor is negligible. The fact that the sex
ratio of the actual Negro population is lower than can be expected on the
basis of present birth rates and mortality rates alone is due to the fact that
the sex ratio reflects not only the present conditions but experience during
the whole life-span of the population. This would mean, then, that the
46 > ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 12. Sex Composition of the Population by Residence and
Nativity, United States and Southeast, 1930 and 1940
United States
Southeast
Characteristic and year
Male
Female
Ratio
Male
Female
Ratio
1940
36,363,706
29,697,886
34,154,760
27,982,320
53,437,533
6,011,015
48,420,037
7,502,491
38,059,996
27,547,687
34,800,063
25,837,903
53,358,199
5,408,123
47,883,298
6,480,914
95.5
107.8
98.1
108.3
100.1
111.1
101.1
115.8
4,304,919
9,751,517
3,638,826
9,112,956
9,950,327
110,384
8,818,199
121,978
4,777,346
9,428,047
3,978,005
8,821,111
9,910,456
88,201
8,707,457
91,618
90.1
Rural
103.4
1930
91. S
Rural
103.3
1940
100.4
125.2
101.3
133.2
Foreign-born white. . . .
1930
Foreign-born white. . . .
Note: The population by nativity for the United States as a whole in 1930 has been corrected to include Mexicans as whites,
since such definition was adopted in 1940. The number of whites in the Southeast has been left as reported in the Census, how-
ever, the number of Mexicans residing in the Southeast is too small to affect computed sex ratios.
Source: Sixteenth Census of t lie United States, 1940, Preliminary release, Series P-10, Nos. 6, 14; Series P-6, State Summaries;
Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, II, Chap. 10, Tables 24, 31.
two most important factors which contribute to the lowering of the Negro
sex ratio, the stillbirth rate and infant mortality, must have had even larger
effect in past decades. This is in perfect agreement with the known facts,
since both the stillbirth and infant mortality rates for Negroes were higher
in 1930 than in 1940 and higher again in 1920 than in 1930.
To sum up, we have shown that the low sex ratio of the Negroes can
be explained by (1) the effect of a high stillbirth rate which serves to
lower the sex ratio at birth, and (2) by higher mortality rates among males
as compared with females, especially for infants. Moreover, these two
factors have been even more effective in the past decades. The higher
sex ratio for whites is due to a higher sex ratjo at birth and especially
to the preponderance of males among immigrants to the United States.
Since this factor loses its importance at the present time with the sharp
decline of foreign-born population, we may expect a rapid drop in the sex
ratio of all the white population of the Nation.
Finally, we have to explain the fact that for all classes the sex ratio
was lower in 1940 than in 1930. We have already seen that for the
whites, one of the contributing factors is the rapid decline in immigration
and, consequently, in the foreign-born population. Another important fac-
tor effective for Negroes as well as whites is the change in the age com-
position of the population (our fourth factor listed above). The decrease
in birth rates together with a general increase in life expectation causes the
rapid "aging" of the American population; this lowers the number of males
by reducing the population of younger ages where they are predominant,
and increases the number of females who are predominant among older
people.
Thus we see that an aging population tends to become more feminine,
.
MALE AND FEMALE 47
while a younger population tends to be more masculine. We also see that
the higher life expectation of the female is not entirely due to the fact
that she is better protected in her home against the strain and competition
of the outside world and spared from some of the particularly dangerous
occupations of males. Since the wastage of male life by stillbirth and
infant death is especially high, it seems probable that the really frail sex
is the male, while nature protects the future child-bearer by endowing her
with greater vitality and resistance to disease.
The causes of disproportionate sex ratios are mainly economic and are
brought about by different rates of international and internal migration.
The one exception is found in the differential effect of mortality on males
and females at various ages. Here the greatest difference is found in
the incidence of male stillbirths among Negroes. The major effect of
abnormal sex ratios are found in marriage and reproduction. To under-
stand these effects we must carry further our discussion of age composition
and the factors affecting fertility.
CHAPTER 5
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE
The basic importance of sex and age differences may be sought in their
relation to economics and fertility, production and reproduction — the major
economic and biological functions performed by individuals in society.
Military service is a third function definitely circumscribed by sex and age
qualifications, as is citizenship and the privilege of voting.
The most important age grouping in any society is that delimited by the
period of maturity and vigor. Reproduction by the very nature of biologi-
cal structure falls most heavily on women aged 15-49, an age range that is
further restricted by cultural considerations as in the age of marriage.
In nation and family the task of economic support, partially, because of
cultural considerations, falls most heavily on males, and here the age range
is very elastic indeed.
Certain age groups, the very young and the very old, are to be regarded
as society's natural dependents. The definition of youth and age in terms
of natural dependents must vary with the degree of economic and cultural
complexity of the society. Normally in the United States we are coming
to consider the natural dependents as those below ages 15 to 20 and those
above age 65. In our society these groups are supported, in the main,
either in the family by those in the productive ages, 20 to 65, or by the
State in terms of social insurance or relief. The main exception is offered
by those of older ages who have investments and savings and are thus able
to provide for themselves.
It is difficult to set up age limits for a maturity group that will include
both the functions of production and reproduction in modern society. In
his population groupings Sundbarg, the Swedish demographer, delimited
maturity by the ages 15 to 49, a grouping that comes nearer to fitting the
biological conditions of reproduction than the economic and cultural func-
tions of mature populations in modern society. Sundbarg concluded that
in populations unaffected by migration this mature group made up approxi-
[48]
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 49
mately 50 percent of the total. With some allowance for the effects of
varying life expectancy and differing age of marriage, we may use his
classifications of populations into three types: progressive, stationary, and
retrogressive, on the basis of varying proportions in the pre-maturity and
post-maturity groups. Table 13, showing the estimated limits of his classi-
fication, has suggestive value for our culture.
Table 13. Population Types According to Sundbarg's
Classification of Age Groups
Age group
year
Progressive
type
Stationary
type
Retrogressive
type
Age group
year
Progressive
type
Stationary
type .
Retrogressive
type
100.0
40.0
100.0
33.0
100.0
20.0
15 _ 49
50.0
10.0
50.0
17.0
50.0
30.0
0-14
50 -up
Table 14 shows that in the Nation well over half of the population,
54.6 percent, is in the mature group, one-fourth in the pre-maturity group
and one-fifth in the post-maturity group. America's large proportions in
the productive ages indicate that the effect of foreign immigration is still
felt on our age composition. This effect is reenforced by both rural-urban
and westward migration, giving our industrial and Western States the
largest proportions of mature people. Thus the Northeast leads with 55.9
percent followed by the Far West with 55.5 percent. Every State with
more than 55.0 percent in the mature group, as Figure 27 shows, is either
western or highly industrial with the exception of Florida. New York,
appropriately enough, has the highest percentage, 57.5, in this group, while
only Maine and Vermont have less than 50 percent. All States that lose
migration fall in the lower groups but the Northwest with its Dust-Bowl
exodus showed the smallest proportion of mature people, 52.2.
Among the regions the contrast is between the Far West as nearer a
regressive population and the Southeast as furthest from a stationary popu-
Table 14. Number and Percentage Distribution of Population by
Maturity, Pre-Maturity and Post-Maturity Age Groups,
United States and the .Six Major Regions, 1940
United States .
Northeast
Southeast. . . .
Southwest. . . .
Middle States .
Northwest. . . .
Far West
All ages
Number
131,669,275
40,629,591
28,261,829
9,782,337
35,741,574
7,410,435
9,843,509
Percent
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0-14
Number
32,972,081
9,144,212
8,656,747
2,816,976
8,404,441
1,959,731
1,989,974
Percent
25.0
22.5
30.6
28.8
23.5 -
26.5
20.2
15-49
Number
71,848,829
22,723,155
15,072,079
5,328,953
19,392,209
3,870,715
5,461,718
Percent
54.6
55.9
53.3
54,5
54.3
52.2
55.5
50 and over
Number
26,848,365
8,762,224
4,533,003
1,636,408
7,944,924
1,579,989
2,391,817
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-6, State Summaries.
Percent
20.4
21.6
16.0
16.7
22.2
21.3
24.3
50
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 27. Percentage of the Population in the Mature Age
Group, 15-49, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, State Summaries, Series P-6.
Figure 28. Percentage of the Population in the Pre-Maturity Age
Group, 0-14, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 27.
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 5 1
Figure 29. Percentage of the Population in the Post-Maturity Age
Group, 50 and Over, United States, 1940
u s. r- 1
E ■ ■■
W. ■ MMB
n.w. ■ wm^m^^a^m
■' E ■ O^BH
m- s m asoN was
— A
Source: See Figure 27.
lation. Judged by the proportion of children 0-14 in Figure 28, New
Mexico with 34.5 percent is the youngest State and California with only
19.8 percent is the oldest. Judged by the proportion 50 and over in
Figure 29, New Mexico with 13.4 percent is again one of the youngest
and New Hampshire with 25.3 percent the oldest.
If we are to relate age composition to the actual tasks of our society
this division of the people must be further broken down. Here we are
concerned, as Figure 30 shows, with certain transitional groups, especially
those entering and leaving the mature phase. Youth, older workers, and
children present special problems.
The task of child care and welfare is concerned with those natural
dependents aged 0-14, but we can distinguish between a childhood which
lasts until 5 and older children aged 5-14 who normally spend almost
three-fourths of each year in the care of the schools. The number of
children under 5 are discussed in the chapter on fertility, where they are
related to the regional proportions of women of childbearing age.
_ The distribution of children age 5-14 gives some measure of the "edu-
cational load" of our States and regions. In the Southeast (Figure 30)
children of this age make up 20.7 percent of the total population as com-
pared with 17 percent in the Nation. The States of the Union show wide
differences in the prominence of this group (Figure 31), varying from
California with 13.2 percent to South Carolina with 22.7 percent, aged
52
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 30. Percentage of the Population in the Main Age Groups,
United States and Southeast, 1940
UNITED STATES
REPRODUCTIVE a AGE 15-49
PREMATURE
• ROUP
UATURITY
GROUP
?OST MATUR
GROUP
r
SOUTHEAST
REPRODUCTIVEa AGE 15-49
PRODUCTIVE* AGE I5'64
SO
PERCENT
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-6.
100
Figure 31. Percentage of the Population of Elementary
School Age, 5-14, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 27.
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 53
5-14. The map demonstrates the familiar truth that regions of greatest
economic ability, the Far West, Northeast, and Middle States, have the
smallest proportions of children of school age to total population. Regions
with least resources from which to support education, the Southwest, North-
west, and Southeast, have the largest proportions of school children. This
condition will be discussed in succeeding chapters on the education of the
people.
THE YOUTH GROUP, I5"24
In the age period 15-24 children make the transition from natural
dependents to potential and actual human resources. For most people in
our culture formal education in the school ceases in the transitional period
of youth, self-support begins, migration from the paternal roof and the
home community takes place, marriages are consummated, and separate
homes and families set up. The State recognizes the new status of this
population group, for it is here that legal responsibility for personal acts
must be accepted, the function of citizenship is exercised, and in time of
crisis military service may be exacted of the newly maturing male.
The 1940 Census showed that youth aged 15-19, with over 12.3 mil-
lions, comprised the most numerous 5-year age group in the population.
The group 20-24, numbering over 11.5 millions, were the third most
numerous. Together they constituted 18.2 percent of our population.
In the Southeast, however, youth made up 19.9 percent of the population,
reaching 22 percent in South Carolina. Figure 32 shows that the lowest
proportion of youth is found in the Far West with 16.4 percent. Cali-
fornia, land of glamorous youth, ranked the lowest of all the States with
16.2 percent. Almost 80 percent of all youth, Table 15, were found in
the three eastern regions, leaving only 20.1 percent in the western areas.
Table 15. Number and Percentage Distribution of Youth, 15-24 Years
of Age, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Area
Number
Percent
Area
Number
Percent
United States
23,921,358
7,255,188
5,612,641
100.0
30.3
23.5
1,838,076
6,253,848
1,345,689
1,615,916
7.7
26 1
Northeast
Middle States
5.6
6.8
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-6, State Summaries.
Whether youth ends at 20 or at 25 depends largely on distinctions
of class, education, and occupation. For those in the upper economic brack-
ets and those aspiring to the professions, dependency and education con-
tinue beyond the teens. Farmers and less-skilled industrial groups leave
school earlier, marry at earlier ages, and thus take on the responsibilities
of maturity. This represents the situation in the South where the pre-
54 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 32. Percentage of the Population in the Youth Group,
15-24, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 27.
ponderant youth group leaves school to go into occupations requiring less
training. It is not easy, however, for youth, trained or untrained, to gain a
foothold in the labor market, and ^nemplayment, as Chapter 21 demon-
strates, is greatest among this group. In times of war young men 18-24
make the hardiest soldiers and it is on that group that the casualties of war
fall the heaviest. It is noteworthy that the South in the 1940's led all
areas in voluntary enlistment in the armed services, reflecting to some extent
the lack of economic adjustment.
THE AGED
The aged, too, have their transitional group which in our analysis may
serve to span the period between maturity ending at{50 and the legal age
for old age security at 65. \ In relation to economic function this period
serves to delimit the problem of the older workers, although some have
pointed out the special hazards to workers after 40, especially women
workers. In biological functions, this general period which closes the
chapter on fertility for females and finds males with failing powers is not
less transitional than adolescence. Here, however, peculiar problems of
the aging had best be left to the columns for the lovelorn and the medical
textbooks. I We can, however, determine the location and economic sig-
nificance oflhis group. 1
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 55
Figure 33. Percentage of the Population in the Older Productive
Ages, 50-64, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 27.
Over 17.8 million or 13.5 percent of the Nation's population were
reported in this category of older workers in 1940 (Figure 33). Largest
proportions were found in the Far West where 16.2 percent of the popu-
lation was reported aged 50-64, followed by the Middle States and the
Northeast with 14.6 and 14.5 percent respectively. /The extremely low
rates of the Southeast and Southwest, with 10.7 and 11.2 percent, would
be accounted for by migration and the lower life expectations of Negroes
were it not for the exaggerated reporting of ages over 65^0 be discussed
presently. ILess than half of this transitional group are males but the
economic problem is not insistent Of the 17.8 millions aged 50-64, 6
millions are found in the Northeast, 5.2 millions in the Middle States,
and 3 millions in the Southeast.
Changes in age composition grow out of two fundamental popula-
.tiorijrenils— the '^ling,hirilijrate""arrdlhe increase in life expectancy. Both
of these tendencies in our time are leadingTo" a "progressive aging of the
population. In terms of our analysis of maturity they tend to set the
problems of old age and of youth in juxtaposition. By 1980 it is esti-
mated that those 6s years and over will have increased from 9.0 millions
in 1940 to 22 millions. In the same period those aged 20-64 will have
increased from 73 to over 91.6 millions. If all those over 6$ received
cash benefits raised by direct taxation, the average tax on each man and
56
ALL THESE PEOPLE
woman in the productive ages would be $24 for every $100 paid in old
age pensions.
Against this hypothetical budget must be balanced the claims of youth
on our social services — claims to education, to a place in the occupational
order, to a wage that will allow marriage and the establishment of families
at an age compatible with biological maturity.
^The real old age problem is thus coming to be centered around those
65 and oven From 1930 to 1940 population aged 65 and over increased
from 6,642,053 to 9,019,314, an increase of 35.8 percent. Whereas the
aged constituted 5.4 percent of the population in 1930 they made up 6.9
percent in 1940. This increase was in excess of normal expectations based
on previous age composition and survival rates, and represents misstate-
ments of age to census enumerators by persons who hoped to be in line for
old age pensions and benefits. This pseudo-increase in the aged serves
to measure two things: (1) a felt need for old age security, and (2) a
degree of illiteracy which prompts the conviction that this procedure will
influence selection for such pensions. Reported increases in the aged
reached 49.1, 48.0 and 43.1 percent respectively in the Southwest, Far
West, and Southeast. The Southeast had 4.2 percent 6$ and over in 1930.
It was expected on the best estimates to have 4.8 percent in 1940 but
(reported 5.4 percent over 6$ Figure 34 shows the range of increase in
Figure 34. Percentage Change in the Population 65 and Over,
United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: See Figure 27.
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 57
those reported 6$ and over by States. In Florida the aged increased 84.3
percent but migration statistics would lead us to believe that a majority
of this increase was genuine. The number over 65 in Vermont declined by
12.6 percent, although the proportion increased from 8.7 to 9.6.
Figure 35 indicates that the reported incidence of old age ranged from
4.2 percent in South Carolina to 9.9 percent in New Hampshire. The
oldest States in this respect are found in New England where some reported
9.5 to 9.9 percent of their people over 65. The authentic home of those
who looked for "Ham and Eggs" and "Thirty Dollars Every Thursday"
was the Far West with 8.1 percent. Next came the Middle States with
7.7. The southern regions, least able to shoulder the public burden of
aged dependents, fortunately have the smallest proportions of their popu-
lation aged 6$ and over. In the Southwest 5.5 percent of the people
reported themselves as over 6$; in the Southeast, 5.4 percent.
Figure 35. Percentage of the Population in Old Age Group,
65 and Over, United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 27.
THE POPULATION PYRAMID: THE TOTAL PICTURE
We have been discussing the age composition in its most important
segments. In the population pyramid, however, we have a graphic device
that shows the significance of sex and age composition at a glance. A
study of regional trends over a forty-year period, 1 890-1.930, by Bernice
Milburn Moore, made it plain that the (chvergent regions are approaching
58
ALL THESE PEOPLE
FIGURE 36. POPULATION PYRAMIDS, UNITED FIGURE 37. PYRAMIDS OF THE TOTAL POPOLA-
STATES AND SOUTHEAST, 1 940 TION OF THE SOUTHEAST, 1930 AND I94.O
FEMALES
UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST
MALES
FEMALES
7 66432 I 01 234867765452 101234567
PERCENT PERCENT
FIGURE 38. POPULATION PYRAMIDS OF THE FIGURE 39. PYRAMIDS OF THE URBAN POPU-
SOUTHEAST, URBAN AND RURAL FARM, I94O LATION, SOUTHEAST, 1930 AND I94.O
MALES
FEMALES
MALES
FEMALES
Source: See Figure 27.
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 59
a sex and age distribution nearer the national average.*) In western regions,
the pioneer characteristics of excess males in the mature ages with deficien-
cies among the old and the young have given way to more balanced age
and sex ratios. /By the same comparison, it can be seen that the South-
east now lags some forty years behind the Nation in its age distribution)
By 1930 the region had attained the pattern held by the Nation in 189a
In 1890 the Nation had 35.5 percent of its population under 15 as com-
pared with 60.3 percent aged 15-64. By 1930 the Southeast had attained
a comparable ratio of youth to age of 34.9 to 60.3, while the Nation had
passed on to a ratio of 29.3 percent under 15 to 65.2 percent aged 15-64.
For our most fertile region we can observe the evolved patterns in com-
parison with the Nation as they existed in 1940 (Figure 36). The pre-
dominance of the South in the proportions of youth ceases at 30 ; there-
after, the Nation leads in the mature age-sex groupings. In Figure 37,
which compares the Southeast of 1930 and 1940, we can see how the
cohorts move up with the census period, decreasing the base and strengthen-
ing the body of the pyramid. The base is undercut as the decline in fer-
tility makes itself evident by each five-year period to age 20-24.
Figure 38 makes it clear that the farms are the homes of children and
youth until migration begins to drain off the girls at age 20 and boys at
age 25. (^n Southeastern cities, as in cities everywhere, those of vigorous
ages predominate. In older ages, however, more men tend to remain
on farms as compared with women who seek the shelter of urban comforts.
A final comparison of the urban Southeast, 1930 and 1940, (Figure 39)
shows continued decline in children under 15 and some slight failure of
cities to retain the proportion of youth held in 1930. In 1940 propor-
tionately more females than males aged 30 and over were evident in cities.
Implicit in these figures is the suggestion of significant changes in repro-
duction and migration/to be discussed in later chapters.
THE BALANCE OF PRODUCERS AND CONSUMERS
The region's relation to the total national economy is made clearer
when these pyramids are related to the balance of producers and con-
sumers. In the Southeast this balance differs greatly from that obtaining
in the Nation. \TJie Southeast is a young population and the ratio of its
workers to its natural dependents can be explained in terms of the relation
of producing to consuming unity' By assigning weights to sex and age
groups based on needs of consumers and the employment ratios and com-
parative efficiency of producers, Ernst Gunther has designed a scale for
relating the productive powers of a population to its consuming needs.
Thus males aged 25-30 represent 100 in both production and consump-
tion while females of the same age represent 50 in production. Adapting
6o
ALL THESE PEOPLE
these methods, Thompson and Whelpton have worked out the ratio of pro-
ducing to consuming units in the United States from 1870 to 1980.1
Calculation of similar data for the Southeast in Table 16 brings out
interesting comparisons. In both the Nation and the region the decline
in births has meant that the ratio of producers to consumers has been slowly
Table 16. Number and Ratio of Producing to Consuming Units in the
Population, United States and Southeast, by Decades, 1 890-1 930
and
n group
United States
Southeast
Year
populatio
Producing
units
(thousands)
Consuming
units
(thousands)
Ratio of
Producing to
consuming
Producing
units
(thousands)
Consuming
units
(thousands)
Ratio of
Producing to
consuming
1890
25,104
30,754
39,118
44,751
52,958
21,383
11,552
9,831
31,575
43,721
53,058
65,464
75,219
88,441
37,665
20,904
16,761
50,776
1:1.74
1:1.72
1:1.67
1:1.68
1:1.67
1:1.76
1:1.81
1:1.70
1:1.61
5,385
6,503
7,904
8,834
10,064
6,669
4,353
2,316
3,395
10,257
12,060
14,270
15,727
17,833
12,277
8,260
4,017
5,556
1.90
1900
1.85
1910
1.81
1920
1.78
1930
1.77
" Rural..
1.84
Rural
1.90
Rural
— Nonfarm .
1.73
1.64
Source: Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Population Trends in the United States, (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933),
Table, 45, p. 169; National Resources Committee, Population Statistics, Urban Data, October 1937, Table 16, p. 17; Bernice
M. Moore, Age and Sex Distribution of the People as Conditioning Factors in Cultural Participation (unpublished doctoral
dissertation, University of North Carolina, 1936).
FIGURE 40. THE ESTIMATED FUTURE
DISTRIBUTION OF MAJOR AGE GROUPS
BY RESIDENCE WITH MIGRATION AS OF
1920-1930, SOUTHEAST, 1920-1960
-\
Source: Warren S. Thompson and P. K.
Whelpton, Estimates of Future Population
by States, National Resources Board,
December, 1934.
1 W. S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Population Trends in the United States (New York: Mc-
Graw-Hill, 1933), p. 169.
THE YOUNG, THE OLD, AND THE MATURE 61
increasing. In no classification, however, does the ratio of consumer to
producer units on the Gunther scale fall below 1.60. Where, in 1930, the
Nation had 167 consuming units for every 100 producing units in' the
population, the Southeast had 177. In this slow increase in the propor-
tion of producers to consumers, the Southeast has lagged behind the
Nation failing to reach in 1930 the ratio passed by the Nation in 1890?
In 1890 the Nation had 174 consuming units to every 100 producing units-
by 1930 this had fallen to a ratio of 167 to ipo. In the Southeast the
ratio fell from 1.90 in 1890 to 1.77 in 1930. iRural urban comparisons
show the excess of young consumers in the rural Southeast.) On the
Nation's farms consuming units exceeded producing units by 81 percent
on Southeastern farms by 90 percent. The excess of consumers is lowest
in cities where people in the productive phase of life congregate— 61
for^the Nation and 64 for the Southeast's urban population.
/The Southeast thus remains the region where the potentialities and
problems of youth prevail above the problems of age. Figure 40 which
shows the changes in age over two generations indicates that here as else-
where the youth group is decreasing and old age is increasing.) The pro-
jection of 1 920-1 940 trends to i960 in Figure 40 suggests tKat by i960
the younger age classes 10-15 will decline while those 40-64 will in-
crease their proportion from 22 to 28 percent. Those over 65 should not
exceed the children under five. Youth of elementary school age will have
declined from 20 to 16.5 percent. If migration continues at the rate estab-
lished in the decade, 1920-1930, greater numbers of those in the produc-
tive ages, 15-64, will be living in urban areas. Farm population will show
a steady decline except for the aged.
CHAPTER 6
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
Russia being mentioned as likely to become a great empire, by the rapid
increase of population: Johnson, "Why, Sir, I see no prospect of their propagating
more. They can have no more children than they can get. I know of no way to
make them breed more than they do. It is not from reason and providence that
people marry, but from inclination. A man is poor; he thinks, 'I cannot be worse,
and so I'll even take Peggy.' " Boswell, "But have not nations been more populous
at one period than another?" Johnson, "Yes, Sir; but that has been owing to the
people being less thinned at one period than another, whether by emigrations, war
or pestilence, not by their being more or less prolific. Births at all times bear the
same frofortion to the same number of -peofle." — Boswell's Life of Johnson.
In spite of Doctor Johnson, fertility in the Western World is now the
variable factor while mortality, except for war, has tended to become
the constant. Today only a few like Johnson's mythical Peggy and her
husband have as many children as they can get. Within the sphere affected
by modern medicine and sanitation, variations in births have an effect on
the replacement rates of population groups five to twenty times greater
than usual variations in death rates. Now that life expectancy for females
at birth is over sixty years, well beyond the end of the reproductive period,
births are greatly affected by mortality only for those groups in the popu-
lation like the American Negro whose life expectancy in 1930 was almost
thirteen years below that of the whites.
FERTILITY THE PROBLEM IN ITS SETTING
Contrary to Doctor Johnson, this leaves birth rates influenced by more
factors than deaths. The number of births in any country is affected by
(1) the size of the base population, (2) the age and sex distribution of
the population, and (3) the rates at which women of various ages give birth
to children. This last figure, usually called the age-specific fertility rate,
is calculated on the basis of births per 1,000 women of various ages grouped
[62]
THE TREND OF FERTILITY 63
at five year intervals of 15 to 19, 20 to 24, etc. When we come to con-
sider what conditions affect the rates at which women of the different age
groups bear children we have an almost unlimited choice of factors. For
any population we should like to know (4) the proportions married and
(5) the ages at which they marry. Next in our ideal scheme we should
like to know (6) what proportions of married couples are sterile and
what proportions are fecund. Here we enter an area of guesswork for no
one knows the answer to this question of involuntary sterility.
Given this account of the biology of reproduction, we need some meas-
ure of the amount of conscious effort made to escape the hazards of fer-
tility. Here we need to know (7) the extent to which women in each age
group and social class resort to methods of birth control and (8) the degree
to which these methods are successful. These facts will, no doubt, never
be known for any great mass of the population. Birth control clinics have
studied their clients, and Raymond Pearl, using the best technique yet de-
veloped, studied a large group of confinement cases in city hospitals.1 To
secure comparable knowledge of a cross section of the population that in-
cludes rural groups and is unselected either by visits to hospital delivery
rooms or attendance at contraceptive clinics we may have to wait a long
time.
There yet remains one link. The products of conception may be lost
before full-term delivery, either by miscarriage or abortion. Accordingly
(9) the degree to which pregnancy wastage reduces the birth rate should
be determined in any study of fertility. Good research has been done in
this field by Pearl and by the staff of the Milbank Memorial Fund. Ratios
of reproductive wastage as high as 30 to 38 percent have been found among
urban groups which practice contraception.2 Here again no mass figures
covering the whole population are likely to be secured.
So much for the total aspects of fertility. In its social and class aspects
the biological processes leading to births give rise to all types of class
differences. Clear-cut differences in reproductive behavior are found, in
every Western country, in inverse relation to practically every test' of
social, economic, and class status that can be devised. This simply means
that the higher the income, the occupational l&vd, the social prestige of
the classes, the lower their fertility rates are likely to be. In order to be
prepared for the analyses which follow it may be well to list some of these
variations. In the United States, where figures are admittedly incom-
plete, it is possible to demonstrate differences in fertility by social groups-
fi) on the basis of occupation, (2) on the basis of income per family,'
"See Raymond Pearl, The Natural History of Population (New York: Oxford University Press I<)3q)
pp. 169-248 for results, and pp. 341-355 for methods of study. '
"Tbid., pp. 68-73.
64 ALL THESE PEOPLE
(3) by size of community from the great metropolis to the isolated farm-
stead, (4) on the basis of race and nativity, (5) by geographic location of
major regional groups, (6) on the basis of broad educational classifications
such as illiterate, primary school, high school, and college training, and
(7) on the basis of religious affiliation such as Protestant, Catholic, and
Jewish.
This is a country of wide contrasts in economic conditions and resources,
in health and standards of living. The same studies which demonstrate
class differences in fertility show that regional differences in reproductive
tendency in this country are now greater than the differences between
social classes and racial groups within the same community.
The Southeastern States lead the Nation in large families and high
birth rates. The region's preponderance of young population, except as
changed by migration, and its large numbers now entering the employable
ages bear witness to the fertility of the generation just closing. Long
among the highest in the Nation, fertility rates in the South now show a
sharp decline. These trends can best be understood by examining regional
changes against the background of national changes.
THE HISTORICAL DECLINE IN BIRTHS
In the early days of our Republic it seems clear in spite of meager
statistics that the average family must have consisted of about seven or
eight. Today the average size of family is between three and four.
Counting the women who do not marry, those who have no children, and
those who are widowed or divorced before the end of the childbearing
period, it is estimated that approximately an average of 3 1/3 children
per fertile family is required to keep the population stationary, neither in-
creasing nor declining. Manifestly this is related to the birth rate, which
according to our best estimates for the white population has fallen from
about 55 per 1,000 in 1800 to below 20 in the 1930's (Figure 41).
In 1 800 the proportion of women in the childbearing age, 20-49, was
much smaller than today— 33 percent according to one calculation as com-
pared with 46 percent in 1930. This relation is shown graphically in
Figure 42 where the trends are projected forward on the basis of reason-
able estimates to show that some 39 percent of American women will be
in that group by the year 2,000. Thus, in view of the slow-moving but
inevitable decline in the proportion of the population in the reproductive
ages, it is possible to show that without any decrease in the average size
of families our national birth rate would greatly decline. When these age-
specific fertility rates are also falling, the effect is cumulative, and the
decline will occur at a more rapid rate.
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
Figure 41. Estimated Trend of White Birth Rate, per 1,000
Population, United States, 1 800-1 940
65
WHITE BIRTH RATE
60
1820 1830 1840 1850 I860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 19315 15*40
Source: Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Population Trends
McGraw-Hill, 1933), Table 74.
is in the United States (New York:
Historically and logically the emergence of differential fertility among
the social classes coincides with the general fall of the birth rate, as has
been demonstrated by the work of J. W. Innes, Frank W. Notestein, and
D. V. Glass for England and Wales.3 Beginning in 185 1 and fully appar-
ent by 1880, upper, middle, and intermediate economic classes showed
the greatest decline while miners, agricultural workers, and unskilled
laborers showed the least.
Little comparable information is available for the American population
before the Milbank Memorial Fund studied fertility as of the period 1890-
19 10. In an undifferentiated frontier the fertility of many families must
have been close to the biological limits. With the growth of colonial cities
the emergence of upper classes, and the coming of slaves and immigrants,'
"J. W. Janes, Class Fertility Trends in England and Wales (Princeton University Press lori)
and Soc >T- N°teSt*7^aS\Differen<?S in Fenili£y'" The A™*>> Am-«» Acl" mv of Pofidcai
and Social Science, 1 88 (November, 1936), pp. 26-36. rouncai
66
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 42. Proportion of Women in Childbearing Age and Average
Size of Family, United States, 1800, 1940, and 2000
Source: Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, Statistical Bulletin, October, 1940, p. 6.
further social differentiation must have been followed by a divergence of
class trends in fertility.
A. F. Jaffe has been able to show that important class differences in
fertility existed in northern cities and southern agricultural areas as early
as 1 800- 1 8 20. In New York City, Boston, and Providence, wards of the
largest property owners averaged gross reproductive rates only 80 to 57
percent of those having the least property. In North Carolina, Georgia,
and South Carolina the white population in counties with the highest pro-
portion of slave-ownership had fertility rates ranging from only 79 to 66
percent of the rate for counties with the lowest proportion of slaves.4
REGIONAL TRENDS
What of the population in the Southeast during the century long de-
cline in fertility? This trend is indicated by maps giving the ratio of
white children under 5 to 1,000 white women 15-49 from 1800 to 1930
(Figure 43). The decline in fertility which was begun in New England
had accounted for a 50 percent decline in that area by i860. The decline
spread South and West with the development of urbanization and indus-
try. The advancing frontier up to 1880 is shown to possess the highest
fertility ratios.
4 A. F. Jaffe, "Differential Fertility in the White Population in Early America," Journal of Heredity,
XXXI (September, 194°), 4°7"4«»-
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
Figure 43. Trend in the Number of White Children Under 5 per i
White Women, 15-49, United States, 1 800-1 930
67
000
|| 200 to 300
FM 300 to U00
HH <*00 to 500
I 500 to 600
I 600 to 700
I 700 to 800
I 800 to 900
I 900 to 1.000
! 1.000 and over
V S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
68
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 44. Percentage Distribution of Children Under 5 and Women
of Childbearing Age, 15-45, Six Major Regions of the
United States, 1 880-1940
Source: Bernice M. Moore, Age and Sex Distribution of the People as Conditioning Factors in Cultural
Participation (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina, 1938), Sixteenth Census
of the United States, 1940, Series P-6, Nos. 1-49.
Figure 43 shows that with the passing of the frontier the Southeast
remained as the outstanding area of high fertility. Figure 44 makes use
of the familiar index of children and women to show proportions of each
group in the six major regions from 1880 to 1940. The Northeast has
consistently shown the largest proportion of the Nation's women in child-
bearing ages 5 the Middle States have shown the best balance between the
proportion of total children and potential mothers, while the Southeast
has shown the greatest proportion of children to 1,000 women aged 15-44.
In comparison with these areas, other regions are shown to play a less im-
portant part in the picture of fertility, actual and potential. Figure 45
shows that States ranged from 518 children in New Mexico to 242 in
New Jersey.5
6 The ratio of children under 5 to 1,000 women of child-bearing age is commonly used as an inder
of fertility instead of birth rates in American studies. While this is due in the main to our lack of
vital statistics, the ratio has definite advantages. It is an age-specific rather than a crude birth rate
and serves to measure effective fertility. As Warren S. Thompson has pointed out, it is a function of
three independent variables: (1) the specific birth rate, (2) the death rate of children under five, and
(3) the age distribution of women. Census enumeration of children is much more complete than the
registration of births and corrections for under-enumeration by the census are more readily computed.
See Warren S. Thompson, Ratio of Children to Women, 1920, Census Monograph XI (Washington,
D. C, I930» PP- '5-I7-
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
69
Figure 45. Fertility Ratio (Children Under 5 per 1,000 Women 15-44),
United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-6, Nos. 1-49.
Figure 46. Percentage Decline in Fertility Ratio,
United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: See Figure 45.
70
ALL THESE PEOPLE
In terms of this measure, total fertility declined 15.9 percent in the
Nation for the decade, 1930- 1940, the smallest decline, 7.2 percent, occur-
ring in the Far West, and the largest, 22.3 percent, in the Northeast. The
decline ranged by States from a loss of 3.5 percent in Oregon to one of
26.9 percent in Rhode Island (Figure 46). Losses of 20 percent or more
were shown by Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York,
New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The Southeast experienced a 14.2 per-
cent decline which was led by Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. The
Middle States and the Northwest, with declines of 13.8 and 12.7 per-
cent, come next in fertility losses.
With the development of improved reporting, we can contrast recorded
births in the Nation and the Southeast from 191 7 to 1940. In the ex-
panding registration area of the Nation, the crude birth rates fell from
24.5 per 1,000 in 191 7 to an all-time low of 16.6 in 1933 (Figure 47).
Since then recorded births have risen, reaching 17.9 in 1940. This reversal
is represented by a second trend line from 1933 to 1940. In contrast
Figure 47. The Trend of Birth and Death Rates, Expanding
Registration Area, United States, 191 7-1940
RATE PER 1,000
POPULATION
r^r
26
8 -
6 -
4 -
I
j_
_[_
I
_L
_!_
1918
1924
1926
t928
1930
1932
1934
1938
1940
Note: Not corrected for underregistration.
Trend values:
Births 1917-1940: Yc = 24-15 — -i^X
Births 1933-1940: Yc — 16.66 + .144X
Deaths 1917-1940: Yc = 13.62 — .IS3JT
Source: Vital Statistics — Special Reports, United States Summary, ij, No. 2, Table I.
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
Figure 48. The Trend of Birth and Death Rates, Southeast,
Expanding Registration Area, 191 7-1 940
71
RATE PER 1,000
POPULATION
32 1
2 -
32
_L
1
1918
1920
1922
1924
_L
1926
JL
1926
1930
_L
1932
1934
1935 1938 1940°
Note: Trend Values for Births: Yc = 29.006 — .4.34^
Trend Values for Deaths: Yc = 13.66 — .161X
Source: Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, United States, 1917-1936; Vital Statistics
Special Reports, Vol. 14. State summaries, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1937, Tables 6, II.
the Southeast (Figure 48) began with a much higher birth rate, one that
reaching a high point of 30.3 in 1921 fell to 20.2 in 1936, lower than the
depression point in 1933. Accordingly the Southeast's second trend line
I933~I940 shows no such rise as is found in the Nation's.
In 1940 birth rates ranged all the way from 14.1 in New Jersey to as
high as 27.7 in New Mexico (Figure 49). The Southeast attained the
highest rates, 21.3 per 1,000 as compared with 17.9 for the Nation. Only
three Southeastern States, Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas, fell below
the rate of 20.5 while only seven States outside the Southeast reached
that high. Rates of natural increase ranged from 3.3 for New Jersey to
72
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 49. Crude Birth Rate per 1,000 Enumerated Population,
United States, 1940
0 Zl . 0 and over
K53 I'O - »■»
WA 17.0 - 18. »
irm i6-o - «•»
j I Under 15.0
Source: Map reproduced from Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 14, No. 2.
Figure 50. Rate of Natural Increase, United States, 1940
I I UNDER 5.0
5.0- 6.9
VXi 7.0-10.9'
E32 11.0 AND OVER
Source: Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 14, No. 2, Table 2.
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
73
17.2 for New Mexico. For the Southeast the rate was 11, for the Nation,
7.1. Again Florida fell the lowest in the Southeast with 5.7, no other
State going below 8 per 1,000. And again the Southeast is approached
by only a few Western States like Utah and New Mexico (Figure 50).
Figures 47 and 48 include the death rate and are thus designed to
show the greater rate of natural increase in the Southeast. In the Nation
the trend line of births and deaths gradually carried the rate of natural
increase down from 10.5 to 5.9 per 1,000 in 1933 when it was reversed
and rose to 7.1 in 1940. The Southeast, however, showed a trend of
natural increase that began at 14.2, narrowed to 8.7 in 1936, and then
rose to 11 per 1,000 in 1940. Since the downward trend of deaths is
similar in the two areas, the figures show the extent of the South's high
natural increase due to excess fertility.
Adjustments for underregistration of births show even greater regional
differences in fertility than those presented. Such adjustments can be made
by matching birth certificates in a precensus year with census counts of
infants one year old and under in the census year. There is one difficulty,
however. Where complete, birth registration figures show that census
enumerators themselves fail to account for all infants under one.
Figure 51. Registered Births per 100 Estimated Births,
United States, 1940
J
Source: Ellen Hull NefF, Underregistration of Births, United States, 1940: State, Regional, Race, and
Rural-Urban Differences (unpublished master's thesis, University of North Carolina, 1943).
74
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 5 1 shows Ellen Hull Neff's estimates of proportion of under-
registration of births in 1939.6 It will be noticed that in the States
admitted latest to the registration area, Southern States with large Negro
population and in rural areas, registered births were only 80 to 90 percent
of total births as estimated. The States ranged from 81 percent for
Arkansas to ioi.l percent for Massachusetts. In eastern and urban
States the degree of registration on this estimate ranked around 96 to 101
percent. The overregistration of births in Massachusetts was no doubt
due to the fact that hospitals draw from surrounding rural areas outside
the State. Ellen Neff's studies indicated that all the southern States,
with the exception of Mississippi and Virginia, had high rates of unrecorded
births.7
Estimates of the underregistered births enable us to make use of
census changes in determining the change in population from 1930 to
1940 due to natural increase. By States this varied from 3 percent in
California to 18 percent in New Mexico (Figure 52). The Nation gained
7.28 percent by natural increase. The Southeast and Southwest had 12.3
Figure 52. Percentage Change in Total Population Due to
Natural Increase, United States, 1930-1940
1 I UNDER 4.0
4.0- 6.9
7 0- 9.9
10.0-12.9
B583 13.0 AND OVER
Source: See Table 30, pp. 125, 126.
6 Ellen Hull Neff, Underregistration of Births, United States, 1940; State, Regional, Race and
Rural-Urban Differences (unpublished master's thesis, University of North Carolina, 1943).
Compare these figures with the results of birth-test survey in 1940. See Vital Statistics Rates m
the United States, 1 900-1940, Gov't Print. Office, Washington, D. C, 1943, p. 99.
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
Figure 53. Percentage Change in the Colored Population Due to
Natural Increase, United States, 1 930-1 940
75
Source: See Tables 30 and 31,
Table 17. White Population Change Due to Natural Increase and
Migration, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1 930-1 940
Amount Change, 1930-1940
Percent Change, 1930-1940
Area
Net
Due to natural
increase
Due to
migration
Net
Due to natural
increase
Due to
migration
United States
7,928,130
1,681,663
2,313,465
643,281
1,622,179
25,559
1,521,638
7,942,382
1,682,840
2,314,333
921,746
2,051,521
688,429
261,174
- 14,252
1,177
868
- 278,465
- 429,342
- 662,870
1,260,464
7.2
4.6
13.0
8.2
5.0
0.4
19.1
7.2
4.6
13.0
11.7
6.3
9.6
3.3
Southeast
Southwest
- 3]5
- 1.3
- 9.2
15.8
i
Middle States
Northwest. . . .
Far West
f^K^t^^^a^r93,^19^7'^^ 18; United States Binh Schedules and Infant Mortality, 1930-1936;
W^7 StatlstlS?'Jl93(h19«: y-tal St"lstICS' 1937-1939; Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930. Population IV, United
li P >. /^maT Tf V' Pi TS™Uen*h 'Census of the United States, 1940, Population, Series P-6, P-10; Report of the Committee
on Population Problems of the National Resources Committee, 1938, "The Problems of a Changing Population," pp. 75-76; Na-
tional Resources Committee, Population Statistics, National Data, Tables 28, 32.
and ii percent gains in natural increase j the Far West only 3.4 percent.
Colored populations showed a natural decrease in nine States and their
rates ranged from a loss of 3.6 percent in Kentucky to a gain of 22.7
percent in North Dakota (Figure 53). While the total gain was 8 per-
cent, greater than that of the white population, the colored population
showed a smaller rate of natural increase than the white in both southern
regions. By States, the white population ranged from a 2.9 percent gain
76
ALL THESE PEOPLE
in California to 18.6 percent natural increase in New Mexico where Mexi-
cans are classified with the white population (Figure 54 and Table 17).
The Southeast led in both white and colored natural increase, 13.0 per-
cent and 10.5 percent respectively.
Figure 54. Percentage Change in White Population Due to
Natural Increase, United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: See Tables 30 and 31, pp. 125, 126.
DECLINE IN FERTILITY BY AGE GROUPS
The picture of total fertility is incomplete until we know what has
happened to the birth rate among women of different ages. Figure S5
from P. K. Whelpton does more than document the fact that the most
fertile period for the human female is found in early maturity, and the
least fertile in the later periods. It indicates year by year that from 1920
to 1940 native white women of the two groups have shown different fer-
tility trends. Among females of age 35-39 and 40-44 there has been a
large decline in fertility, practically uninterrupted since 1920. Here rates
have been cut almost in half. In contrast, birth rates for women aged
20-24 and 25-29 declined until 1933 and then turned upward. The
two most fertile age groups have reversed position. Before 1927 women
25-29 had the highest reproductive rate of all groups, in 1927 they were
passed by the group aged 20-24. While births have not increased among
women aged 30-34, their fertility has been fairly stable since 1933.
THE TREND OF FERTILITY
77
FIGURE 55. ANNUAL TREND OF AGE SPECIFIC FIGURE 56. ANNUAL TREND OF BIRTHS PER
BIRTH RATES PER I.OOO NATIVE WHITE WOMEN, 1,000 NATIVE WHITE WOMEN, 15-49, BY ORDER
15-44, BY 5-YEAR AGE GROUPS, UNITED STATES, OF BIRTH, UNITED STATES, I92O-I939
I9ZO-I939
NO. OF BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN
NO- OF BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN I5--"
Source:
P. K. Whelpton, "Recent Fertility Trends," Human Fertility, VI, No. 6 (December, 1941), p. 163.
Figure 57, based on three decades, brings the fertility differential
home to the Southeast. Fertility at all ages, as is expected, is highest
among the Southeast's white women, and next highest among its Negroes.
Most striking, however, is the regional decline in the fertility of white
women above 25. Among those 25-29, births fell (1920-1940) from 204
to 130. Total fertility for ages 15-44 fell from 142 to 92. Only younger
women 15-19 and 20-24 show stable rates after 1930. Negroes showed
the expected decline in older ages but their total fertility rose after 1930
due to increased births among younger women, 15-19 and 20-24.
Fertility among younger women is of course directly related to births
of first-born and second-born children. P. K. Whelpton (Figure 56) has
shown the extent to which the higher order of births have declined while
lower orders have remained stable. Thus from 1920 to 1939 first births
per 1,000 native white women remained fairly stable around 27 per 1,000
except for the depression decline, and second births declined but slightly
from 19.8 to 17.4. On the other hand all births of the fourth order and
over declined from 27.4 to 15.1 per 1,000. Births of the third order have
declined from 13.4 to 9.2 per 1,000. Probably this may be taken to mean
78
ALL THESE PEOPLE
that while families still want two children, those mothers with two or three
do not want additional children sufficiently to maintain previous rates
of reproduction. Comparisons with the Southeast, in Chapter 8, suggest
that the trends have been similar but that the rates are higher, resembling
the fertility pattern of the Nation twenty or thiry years before.
Figure 57. Age Specific Birth Rates by 5-Year Age Groups per 1,000
Women, 15-44, United States Native White, Southeast
White and Non-White, 1920, 1930, 1940
BIRTHS PER 1,000 WOMEN
ElOr —
ISO
UNITED STATES
NATIVE WHITE
,920 "155 T940 KG «*> .940 .920 -930 •»
Source: See Figure „. Also Potation Statistics, State Data, National Resources Committee (October,
.937), PP- 3, 71 Fourteenth Census of the United States, ip»0) Population II, Ch. 3, Table I3| Fifteenth
Census of the United States, ,93o, Population II, Ch. ,o, Table 24i Sixteenth Census of the UnUed States,
1040 Series P-lo, No. 6; Vital Statistics-Special Feports, 14, United States and State Summaries ,19401
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, "Live Female Births by Place of Residence, Race, Age of
Mother, United States and Selected States, 1940."
CHAPTER 7
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
So far we have discussed fertility in the impersonal terms of population
composition and age specific birth rates. Children, however, are had by
families and marriage is the entrance requirement of the family institu-
tion. Our discussion of regional differences in fertility is continued in
terms of the degree of marriage in the population, the number and size
of families, and the extent to which under present conditions of family
life we are replacing the population.
Excepting illegitimacy, the factors producing what we understand as
the effective fertility of a region have been classified into two categories:
(i) all the biological and cultural factors which operate to cause married
women to produce children at a certain rate; (2) the percentage of women
ot childbearing ages who are married and are thus subject to the action
of the first group of factors.
In the proportion of its native white women 20-44 married in 1930,
the Southwest ranked first with 79.1 percent, the Southeast next with
75.8, and the Northeast last with 66.5 percent. The ratio for the Nation
was 71.9 percent. Tabulation by five-year age groups, of females married,
showed a relatively high percentage of those aged 20-29 married in the
southern areas. These differences were especially important in the younger
groups where specific fertility rates for married women are highest. Figure
58 shows that the southern regions led in the proportion of native white
women, aged 20-44, who were married. This predominance was especially
marked for the earlier age groups, 15-19, 20-24, and 25-29.
For all native white women over 15, however, the predominance was
shared with the Northwest which had 62.8 of its native white women mar-
ried as compared with 62.7 for the Southeast. Figure 59 presents the
marital condition for this group by regions. Especially noticeable was
the higher proportion widowed in the Far West and Southeast and the
lower proportion divorced in the urban and Catholic Northeast and the
[79]
80 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 58. Percentage Married of Native White Women, by Age,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930
Source: Margaret Jarman Hagood, Mothers of the South: A Population Study of Native White Women
of Childbearing Age of the Southeast (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina,
1937). Tables 15, 17.
rural and Protestant Southeast. Lowest in the proportion married was
the urban Northeast, and highest in the population divorced was the Far
West.
When a predominantly young population accepts the custom of early
marriage usual in rural society, we may expect to find a high fertility asso-
ciated with a higher percentage of young mothers. Calculations of the
percentage of children born to mothers under twenty shows the Southeast
fulfilling these conditions of high fertility. Of those reported, it was
found that 13 percent of all cases of births in the Nation in 1940 occurred
to mothers under twenty. As Figure 60 indicates, no southern State
fell lower than 17 percent and three exceeded 20 percent. Lowest, as
expected, were the Northeastern States and, less expected, the Dakotas,
Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
Figure 6 1 confirms the above trend for it shows that the estimated mar-
riage rate was highest in the southern regions and lowest in the Northeast
in 1940. The range was from an estimate of 3.7 marriages per 1,000
persons in North Carolina to 35.4 in Nevada. Western and southern States
had a consistently high rank. For comparison, Figure 62 gives the esti-
mated divorce rates for the same period. Here the Far West and the
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
Figure 59. Marital Condition of Native White Women Over 15,
United States and Six Major Regions, 1930
81
ofThilA^" i3™^ "aS°°d. Mothers of the South: A Population Study of Native White Women
1937), TaMerTg Southeast (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina,
Figure 60. Births to Mothers Under 20 as Percentage of All Cases of
Births* to Mothers of Known Ages, United States, 1940
*A multiple birth in which at least one child is born alive is considered one case of birth
Source: Vital Statistics—Special Reports, 14, Table F.
82 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 6i. Estimated Number of Marriages per 1,000
Population, United States, 1940
3E
Source: Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 15, No. 13. Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, 1940,
Series P-10, No. 2.
Southwest led with estimates of 4 to 4.1 divorces per 1,000 popula-
tion. The Southeast and Northeast showed the lowest rates, 1.9 and I.O.
The States showed two extremes. South Carolina under the law had none
and Nevada also under law had 47.1 per 1,000 population. The more
normal range was from 0.8 in New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and
North Dakota to 5.9 in Florida. Calculations in terms of divorce rates
per 1,000 marriages showed similar relations (Figure 63).
So much for the proportions married in relation to the level of fer-
tility. If we wish to account for year by year variations in fertility we shall
do well to investigate trends in marriage rates. Despite contraception,
births still tend to occur soon after marriage. A study of rates in New
York State from 19 19 to 1937 showed that almost without exception an
increase in the marriage rate is followed the next year by a corresponding
increase in the birth rate. The coefficient of correlation over this period
was found to be very high, .874 — almost as close a correspondence as one
would find between the dimensions of corresponding bones on the right and
left side of the body.1
^'Relations of the Marriage Rate to the Ratio of First Births," Statistical Bulletin (New York:
Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, May, 1939). P- 6-
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
Figure 62. Number of Divorces* per 1,000 Population,
United States, 1940
83
*No divorces are granted in South Carolina.
Source: Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 15, No. 18.
Figure 63. Estimated Number of Divorces per i,ooo Marriages,
United States, 1940
3=
Source: See Figures 61 and 62.
84
ALL THESE PEOPLE
FIGURE 64.. THE TREND OF MARRIAGE AND
BIRTH RATES PER I,0OO POPULATION, UNITED
STATES, I 929- 1 94 1
BIRTH RATE
— — BIRTH RATE
t
---- MARRIAGE RATE
1
t
,\
1
1
S
i
\ 1
-" ~~~*J
\ S
\ V / _/_
\ \ / /
\ W--^ / ^
^^
V
p^s^p?^^ 1
1929 30 31 32 33 34 3» 3« 37 36 39 40 1941
Source: Estimated Marriages, Vital Statistics —
Special Reports, g, No. 60. For births, see Figure
47-
Figure 65. Registered Illegitimate Births* as Percentage of All
Live Births, United States, 1938
* Legitimacy data are not recorded in California, Massachusetts, New York, and Texas.
Source: See Table 18.
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
85
Table 18. Registered Illegitimate Births as Percentage of All Live
Births, by Race, United States and Selected States,* 1938
Area
United States
Delaware
Maryland
Virginia
South Carolina.
Alabama
Florida
North Carolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Pennsylvania . .
Georgia
Missouri
Illinois
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Mississippi ....
New Jersey. . . .
Ohio
West Virginia. .
Arkansas
Michigan
Kansas
Indiana
Rhode Island . .
Wisconsin
Iowa
Connecticut . . .
Colorado
Minnesota
Arizona
Nebraska
Negro Births
Total
241,224
Illegitimate
Percent
17.20
748
31.02
6,287
26.75
14,997
19.50
20,754
19.37
23,207
19.27
9,302
18.56
24,665
18.35
8,047
17.81
20,070
17.53
8,782
17.39
25,723
16.65
3,690
16.64
6,203
16.52
3,193
16.19
2,324
16.09
29,505
14.00
4,345
13.42
5,931
12.63
2,301
12.52
8,691
11.82
3,410
11.73
886
11.40
1,884
10.93
238
10.92
191
10.47
263
9.51
610
9.02
194
8.76
106
8.49
200
6.00
189
4.23
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
White Births
Total
1,562,344
3,683
22,713
38,462
20,352
38,812
21,756
54,459
45,602
28,684
157,159
38,899
54,855
116,263
58,685
39,972
24,098
51,680
106,695
40,129
28,477
93,388
28,638
58,307
10,287
54,402
42,935
23,164
20,299
49,408
9,574
22,082
Illegitimate
Percent
2.05
3.72
2.40
2.79
2.48
1.81
1.80
2.65
2.03
1.84
2.60
1.57
2.44
1.93
1.92
1.63
1.09
1.62
1.76
3.99
1.58
2.04
1.31
1.48
2.59
1.88
1.79
1.83
2.53
2.16
1.91
0.91
Rank
2
10
3
8
20
21
4
13
18
5
27
9
14
15
24
30
25
23
1
26
12
29
28
6
17
22
19
7
11
16
31
•Births not registered by legitimacy in California, Massachusetts, New York, and Texas. States with less than 100 Negro
births also omitted.
Source: Vital Statistics— Special Reports, 9, No. 20.
These variations in first births account for a large share of the varia-
tions in total fertility from year to year. The depression accumulated a
large backlog of delayed marriages which were consummated in the up-
swing and showed in the Nation's rise in births from 1933 to 1942. As
the curve of marriages shows (Figure 64), the selective service act and
the declaration of war increased the marriage rate which rose from 10.3
in 1939 to 1 1.9 in 1940. The 1941 marriage rate of 12.6 per 1,000 popu-
lation was the highest ever reached in the United States. The second
highest rate reached, 12.0, was reached in 1920 after the close of the
first World War. The extent to which these marriages served to increase
births is shown in Figure 64. The phenomenon is normal at the outbreak
of war and is usually followed by sharply declining fertility contingent
upon the breaking up of many young families.
The preceding discussion is not to suggest that the unmarried never
have any children but the difference between the legitimate and the illegiti-
mate fertility rate is very large indeed. Registered illegitimate births
were 4.1 percent of all live births in the Nation in 1938, ranging from 1.7
86
ALL THESE PEOPLE
percent for the Northwest and 1.8 for the Far West to 6.9 percent in the
Southeast (Figure 6$). By States the range was from 0.9 percent in
Nebraska to 1 1 percent in South Carolina. Only Delaware and Maryland
joined the Southeastern States in exceeding 6.8 percent. The high rate
of illegitimate births in the region is explained by the Negro, whose
national rate was 17.2 percent, ranging from 4.2 percent in Nebraska to
31 percent in Delaware (Table 18). This can be compared with 2 per-
cent for the white population (Figure 66).
Figure 66. Percentage of Total White Births Registered as
Illegitimate, United States, 1938
Source: See Table 18.
THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF FAMILIES
The First Census showed more families consisting of five persons than
any other number. A century later the most frequent size of family con-
sisted of four persons. By 1900, as Paul C. Glick has pointed out, there
were more three-person families, and by 1930 the two-person family was
the most prevalent type.2 This modal or typical family is smaller than the
average sized family which from 1790 to 1940 decreased from 5.7 to 3.8,
a loss of one-third in 150 years.
Decrease in fertility serves to explain much of the decline in family
size. The constant in family size except for broken homes is the couple,
2 Paul C. Glick, "Family Trends in the United States 1890 to 1940," American Sociological Review,
IV (August, 1942), 505-5I6-
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS 87
but family size it must be remembered is not equivalent to two plus the
number of children that live. Children grow up, leave home, and begin
families of their own. Accordingly, increased life expectancy has served
to decrease the average size of the family for it has increased the number
of couples living together after their children have departed the parental
roof. Under the pattern of lowered fertility the wife completes her brief
period of childbearing by thirty and the family which began as two may
again be two by age fifty. Thus not only decreased childbearing but
longer life has increased the number of two-person families enumerated
by the census.3
Roughly speaking, our early period of high fertility was characterized
by larger size of family but a smaller number of families in proportion
to the total population. Since 1890 the decrease in average size of house-
hold has amounted to two-tenths of a person per decade, but from 1930
to 1940 the decrease was three-tenths of a person. Population per dwell-
ing unit returned in 1940 is not strictly comparable to numbers per family
since households contain a small number of persons who are not members
of private families. In this same decade, while the total population in-
creased only 7.2 percent, the number of households increased 16.6 per-
cent, or nearly 5 million. The increase in number of families is as sig-
nificant as increases in the population, for it measures the demand for new
houses and for all types of household goods and conveniences. Over a
long period it represents rising levels of living as more young couples
are able to move from under the parental roof to start housekeeping on
their own. The trend is explained partly by age make-up, for we are now
in the period where large proportions of the population are in the youthful
ages at which family attachments are formed. If these couples had fami-
lies as large as their parents had, population would be increasing instead
of tending toward a declining phase.
Regional trends in the number and size of families follow the familiar
fertility differentials except that the setting up of new households is closely
related to the supply of new housing. Regional rates of increase in the
number of family units are due to many factors: the age composition of
the population, the rate of marriage, the level of well-being, and inter-
regional migration. This rate was greater in urban than in rural areas,
being 18.6 and 13.8 percent. Figure 67 shows that by States the rate at
which the number of households increased ranged from 2.7 percent in
South Dakota to 38.2 percent in Florida. The Far West with in-migra-
tion and the economic ability to build houses ranked the highest j New
England and the Great Plain States with their out-migration, the lowest.
8 ibid.
88 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 67. Percentage Increase in the Number of Families,
United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series PH-3, No. 2.
Figure 68. Percentage Decrease in Size of Family Unit,
United States, 1930- 1940
Source: See Figure 67.
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
89
The Southeast with its large population increases failed to establish a com-
parable number of new households, partly because of inability to build
houses.
The decline in average size of family unit, like the other figures dis-
cussed, may have been somewhat affected by the census change from the
enumeration of private families in 1930 to that of occupied dwelling units
in 1940. In urban areas the decline in average size of family was 9 per-
cent as compared with 7 percent in rural areas. Figure 68 shows that the
decline was greatest in the Northwest and Far West and least in the South-
east. By States it ranged from 13 percent in Washington to 4 percent
in Maine, Vermont, Mississippi, and New Mexico. Surprisingly enough
it was smallest in the District of Columbia, 2 percent. This rate of change
is related to present family size, for, as it approaches the ultimate limit
of two persons per household, the rate of decline will stabilize.
In 1940 the average population per occupied dwelling unit was 3.8,
a decline of 8 percent from the average size of family, 4.1 in 1930.
The size of household was greatest, 4.1, in the Southeast and smallest,
3.2, in the Far West. Figure 69 shows that size of household in 1940
ranged from 4.5 in North Carolina to 3.2 in Washington, Oregon, and
California. Average size of the household was largest among the farm
population, 4.25 for the Nation, over 4.5 in the Southeast, and highest
Figure 69. Average Population per Occupied Dwelling Unit,
United States, 1940
Source: See Figure 67.
90 ALL THESE PEOPLE
of all, 4.99 in North Carolina. Nonwhite families were larger the country
over but largest in the rural Southeast, reaching $.66 in North Carolina.
Nearly 95 percent of all the nonwhite farm families are located in the
census South. In the South's urban areas white and colored households
are the same size, 3.7 persons.
REPLACEMENT RATIOS
The discussion in the preceding chapter indicates what happens to the
trend of total fertility as age-specific birth rates change among women of
various ages. The value of the next measures to be discussed, the replace-
ment ratios, is that they indicate the trend of total fertility if age-specific
rates are held constant while the age make-up itself is changing. There
are two such rates, gross and net reproduction.
The gross reproduction rate is the figure obtained by computing the
number of children that would be born to 1,000 women (1) passing,
without losses by death, through the reproductive period, and (2) sub-
ject to the prevailing rates of reproduction at the several age periods. For
the population to maintain its number on this basis, it would be necessary
for 1,000 mothers to have i,000 daughters. If both sexes are con-
sidered, as they might well be, the figure would be 2,057 Per 2,000
parents. (The sex ratio at birth is normally 1,057 boys for every 1,000
girls.) This represents the absolute minimum compatible with a self-
sustaining population. The gross reproduction rate leaves no place for
improvement in mortality, for it assumes the ideal of no deaths for these
women from birth to the end of their reproductive period.4
The net reproduction rate is obtained simply by allowing for the losses
by death of the original cohort of 1,000 women. This group is made sub-
ject to prevailing death rates from age O to the end of the reproductive
cycle and, on the basis of the actual age-specific fertility rates, the number
of female births to all women remaining alive is calculated. The average
number of daughters thus computed for each woman of the original cohort
gives the net reproduction rate. If the rate is equal to 1, the population
is just replacing itself (remains stationary) ; if it is more than unity, it is
increasing. A net reproduction rate below unity indicates a decreasing
population. However, this prediction holds good only after the present
fertility and mortality have been held constant long enough to build up a
population in which the age composition is due entirely to the operation
of these two factors.
Replacement ratios can be expressed somewhat differently, although
the method of computation remains similar. Instead of using the ratio
of daughters per every woman, children of both sexes may be considered,
* See Statistical Bulletin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (March, 1938), pp. 3-6.
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS 91
and their number may be computed per married woman, or per fertile mar-
ried woman only. This may be illustrated by current data.
With birth rates at each age of life as they were during 1930-34, 1,000
native white women living through the child-bearing period would bear
2,158 children. In 1928 A. J. Lotka calculated that out of every 100
females born, 21.8 die single, 78.2 marry eventually, and 64.8 become
mothers. For white American wives he calculated net infertility for all
causes, sterility, premature death of husband or wife, divorce, etc., at 13.1
percent.5 Counting then only women who marry before age 50, there
were about 2,410 births per 1,000 married women. Decreasing the num-
ber of women still further by excluding those who bear no children (about
one-sixth of the group) raises the expected number of births to approxi-
mately 2,900 per 1,000 fertile women. This fertility of approximately 3
children per fertile married woman was just sufficient with the mortality
current as of 1930-34 to replace the population, that is, to keep it stationary.
Actually, the white population of the United States continued to show a
high rate of natural increase during the period 1930-34. This was due to
the fact that the number of women in the reproductive ages was higher
than could be expected on the basis of fertility rates of 1930-34, since these
women were born at a time when higher birth rates prevailed. With fer-
tility and mortality rates held constant, the rate of natural increase would
continue to decline, simply because lower births have already left fewer
young females to move up in the next decade into the fertile age groups.
Thus, with no decline in age-specific fertility, the population will on the
average be too old to keep up its present high rate of increase. Finally, if
persons of all age groups are replaced by those subject through their lives
to fertility and mortality rates as of 1930-34, the population would become
stationary, as predicted by the replacement ratio of 3 children per fertile
married woman, and the natural increase would then remain zero.
In 1930 the Nation's net reproduction rate stood at 108, by 1933 it
was 100, and by 1936 it had fallen to 95. Under these conditions 100
newborn girls would eventually have 95 daughters. This figure expressed
here on the basis of 100 represents net reproductivity. On this basis
the daughters eventually would give birth to 90 granddaughters. But
in the Southeast in 1930, 100 newborn girls would live to have 125
daughters and 156 granddaughters (Figure 70). White rates were much
higher than colored. Whereas 100 newborn white girls would have 134
daughters and 180 granddaughters, 100 colored girls would have 107
daughters and 114 granddaughters.
"A. J. Lotka, "Sterility in American Marriages," National Academy of Science Proceedings, XIV
(January, 1928), 99-109.
92
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 70. Eventual Daughters and Granddaughters of 100 New-Born
Girls by Color, Southeast, According to Mortality
and Fertility Rates of 1 929-1 931
WHITE COLORED
NEW-BORN GIRLS (ORIGINAL COHORTS)
DAUGHTERS
^J ^J
I J ORIGINAL COHORTS
EXCESS OF PROGENY
GRANDDAUGHTERS
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, II, Chap. 10, Tables 24 and 28; Birth,
Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, 1929-31, Tables 1 and 4; Mortality Statistics, 1929-31,
Table 4..
Table 19. Net Reproduction Index Native White Population,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930
Index of net
Index of net
Ratio of
Permanent
reproduction
Ratio of
Permanent
reproduction
Area
children
replacement
per
Area
children
replacement
per
to women*
quotaf
generation
to women*
quotaf
generation
United States . . .
503
444
1.13
Southwest
572
456
1.25
Middle States. . . .
476
442
1.08
442
442
1.00
Northwest
561
441
1.27
668
447
1.49
349
443
0.79
•Ratio of children under 5 per 1,000 native white women aged 20 to 44 years inclusive, in the actual population, 1930, cor-
rected for under-enumeration.
tRatio of children under 5 per 1,000 women aged 20 to 44 years inclusive, in the stationary population, computed for native
whites in 1929-31.
Source: National Resources Committee, Population Statistics, National Data, Table 12, pp. 31-40 and Table 14, p. 50; Margaret
Jarman Hagood, Mothers of the South: A Population Study of Native White Women of Child-bearing Age of the Southeast
(doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina, 1937), p. 67.
The index of net reproduction is computed by relating the ratio of
children under five per 1,000 women aged 20-44 in the actual population
to the same ratio in the stationary population. For the native white popu-
lation of the Southeast in 1930 it was 1.49 as compared with .79 for the
Far West and 1.00 for the Northeast. The Middle States showed a
FAMILY SIZE AND REPLACEMENTS
Figure 71. Index of Net Reproduction for Native White
Population, United States, 1930
93
Source: Population Statistics, National Data, National Resources Committee (1937), Tables 12 and 14.
replacement ratio of 1.08 while both Northwest and Southwest were re-
placing themselves by 127 and 125 percent respectively (Table 19).
Variations by States are indicated in Figure 71. Ten States were below
replacements, ranging from .99 for Nevada to .72 for California. They
included all the highly industrialized States except Michigan and Penn-
sylvania. Fourteen States had replacements ranging from unity to 1.20,
and nine ranged from 1.20 to 1.40. The highest group consisted of
southern and western States with the exception of West Virginia which
had the highest replacement rate of all, 1.67. In the Southeast, only
Louisiana and Florida fell below the highest grouping.
CONCLUSION
We are now better able to appreciate the significance of Figure 3 in
Chapter 1. Thus we can show that this chart brings much of the previous
discussion to bear on the future of population in the United States: (1)
From 19 1 5 to 1937 the birth and death rates in Figure 3 are those reported
in the expanding registration area adjusted for underregistration. (2) Net
reproduction rates calculated as of the mid-thirties allow for the effects
of changing age distribution if no further changes occur in age-specific
fertility and mortality. (3) Finally, calculations based on "medium"
94 ALL THESE PEOPLE
population estimates made for the National Resources Committee by
Thompson and Whelpton allow for reasonable changes in specific fertility
and mortality rates. These medium estimates assume a decline by 1980
of 13 percent in fertility and further decreases in the mortality of native
whites equivalent to the attainment of a life expectancy of 68.8 years for
males and 71.2 years for females. These figures would be greatly changed
only by an increase in the average size of American families. Year to year
changes in fertility do not reverse the trend if they result largely from
fluctuations in marriages and first births. Comparable calculations for the
Southeast have not been made. Figure 70 makes it clear that without the
high fertility of the region the Nation would have entered a period of
population decline much sooner.
That excess replacements were largely an agrarian matter may be
shown by one calculation. There were in 1930, 2,665,000 white children
and 589,000 Negro children under 5 years of age on farms in the United
States. At current survival rates we may estimate that 61.7 percent of
these children would be sufficient to replace the adult population from
which they are derived. This leaves an excess above replacement of 1,000,-
000 white children. Similarly we may estimate that among Negro chil-
dren there were some 200,000 in excess of replacement.
Southern fertility, like national fertility, is an average of the differential
fertility of the constituent groups of the population. Such an analysis
of the Southeast cannot be made at present for the knowledge required
is lacking. No studies comparable, for example, to the Milbank analysis
of fertility by social-occupational classes have been made south of the
Potomac. Clues to class differences can be found in analyses of fertility
by race, by size of corpmunity and by geographic location. This last can
be related to economic standing by ranking the counties on some such scale
of per capita wealth as that developed by the Study of Population Redis-
tribution. All three classifications are related to economic differentials
but none have the merit possessed by the Milbank studies of arranging the
population in a hierarchy of socio-economic classes, to be discussed in
Chapter 1 1 .
All of these differences indicated the familiar differential. Rural
dwellers in the Southeast are much more prolific than city dwellers, younger
populations than older ones, those in poor areas than those in well-to-do
areas, and whites than Negroes because the effect of excess fertility among
Negro females was largely offset in 1930 by a life expectancy of 13 years
less than that among white females. These differentials raise questions as
to the content of the high fertility complex in the Southeast and it is to this
regional pattern that we turn our attention in the next chapter.
CHAPTER 8
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY
To what conditions shall we attribute the high birth rates of the popu-
lation of the Southeast? Speaking in historical terms we know that high
fertility existed in most of the areas of early United States, that it declined
more rapidly in other regions, leaving the Southeast outstanding for its
high replacement rates. It is the task of this chapter to explore the factors
connected with high fertility and to see what explanation can be offered in
terms of economic and social conditions.
To understand the pattern that fertility assumes in the region we shall
begin with the determination of the rate at which women may expect to be
married and the number of children married women have. We shall be
interested in the extent to which the Southeast's high birth rate can be
related to special conditions of the area, the extent to which the decline in
fertility from 1920 to 1930 is due to changes in certain social conditions,
and the effect that mortality has on potential births. After discussing the
above conditions all of which are open to some degree of statistical measure-
ment we shall be concerned with the type of culture associated with the
high fertility of the Southeast.
MARRIAGE EXPECTATION AND PROLIFICACY RATES
High fertility of a population, as often pointed out, is accompanied by
a greater frequency of marriage and younger age of marriage. We have
already seen that higher proportions are married in the Southeast and that
marriage comes at an earlier age. Our calculations (Figure 72) indicate
that women in the Southeast have a high rate of expectation of marriage
to speak in terms of the life table.1 On the basis of survival rates and
* Rates of 'triage expectation" or probability to marry were computed on the assumption of marital
. tatus and mortahty rates of ,93o remaining constant for the period from birth to the end o marrC
[95]
96
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 72. Marriage Expectation for White and Colored
Women of the Southeast, 1929-1931
marriage expectation (percent)
100
AGE OF WOMEN IN YEARS
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, II, Ch. II, Tables 9, 17, 18, 19; Ch. 10,
Table 28. All sources necessary for the computation of life tables for the Southeast.
Table 20. Specified Indices of Fertility and Marital Status,
United States and Southeast, 1930
United States
Southeast
Index
White
Negro
White
Negro
82.0
21.8
1.86
80.1
19.6
83.3
21.2
22.6
2.24
77.9
19.7
Median age of mother at first birth (years)
Median number of legitimate children ever borne
20.0
1.30t
*Chances out of 100.
■flncluding illegitimate for Negro mothers.
Note: The first two measures computed on the assumption of marital status and mortality rates as of 1930 remaining constant to
the end of the marriageable age; the next measures (median age of mother and median number ^children) derived from com-
putation of prolificacy rates. The median number of children of both sexes ever borne per wife for the United States in 1930 and
For southeastern Negroes for 1920 and 1930 is below 2.00; however, this does not indicate that these populations reached the
fertility level below replacement. The distribution of wives by number of children ever borne is so heavily skewed to the .right that
we should expect the mean of the distribution to exceed considerably the median, and therefore the mean number of children ever
borne per wife may be higher than 2.00 (or net reproduction rate exceed 1.00), as is actually true for the given peculations.
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY 97
marital status prevailing in the region in 1930 we estimate that at birth
83.3 percent of white females will live to be married. Similar calculations
for Negroes give a percentage of 77.9. These ratios are low partly because
of the toll that mortality takes before these females reach nuptial age. At
its highest point, age 15 for white and colored, the rate is 90.8 percent first
marriage expectancy for whites and 89.2 percent for colored. After this
age the rate diminishes until few of the women left single at age 45 can
look forward to marriage. In the older age Negro women have a much
better chance of marrying than white women. According to our calcula-
tions, 21.2 percent of the single colored women of 45 and 4.2 percent of
the white women will marry. Marriage expectancy rates are slightly higher
at early ages than for the Nation, although the chances of white women's
marrying after the age of 35 drop more rapidly in the Southeast.
We would expect the region's greater addiction to marriage to eventuate
in higher birth rates. The median age of white brides at marriage is 21.2
Figure 73. The Prolificacy Distribution of White Wives
United States and Southeast, 1020-1031
percent of women 7j
301-
ONITEO STATES
SOUTHEAST
NUMBER OF BIRTHS
Source: United States data computed by P. K. WhelDton and Ttf P T, u* «n ims ~. .,
White Wives for Registration Va/ H^^^^^Vj^^^1^^
Southeast given in Figure 74. ^eDruary, 1940;, 54. Sources for the
98 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 74. The Prolificacy Distribution of White and Colored
Wives, Southeast, 1 929-1 931
percent of women
30
WHITE
COLORED
NUMBER OF BIRTHS
Note- All births corrected for under-registration. For white and colored wives all births (legitimate and
illegitimate) are taken into account. Order of births is computed for colored as of 1930.
Source: United States Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, i93o, Table 7, P- *43J Table 6,
p. 232i Table Q, p. IS"! United States Life Tables, 1930, prepared by the Bureau of the Census, abndged
Life Table Southeast, 1929-193 1.
years; at birth of first child, 22.6 years. For colored wives the figures
are 19.7 and 20 years respectively (Table 20). Extra fertility of the
Southeast can be shown by the computation of prolificacy rates after the
methods devised by Lotka and Burks and developed by Whelpton and
Jackson.2 Figure 73 indicates for the Nation and the Southeast the per-
centage distribution of white wives by the number of births according to
current fertility and life tables. In 1930 we find the Nation led in
the proportion of white wives with three children or less. Only 65.4
percent of white wives in the South had three births or less as compared
with 74.6 percent in the Nation. Both areas showed great increase from
1920 to 1930 in the proportion of small families, the largest increase being
in the zero order of births. In 1930, 23.1 percent of the wives in the
Nation and 19.1 percent of those in the Southeast had no births. In the
»'p K. Whelpton and Nelle E. Jackson, "Prolificacy Distribution of White Wives according to
Fertility Tables for the Registration Area," Human Biology, XII (February, 1940), 54-
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY 99
proportion with six or more births, the region has 20.6 percent of its white
wives as compared with 12.8 for the Nation.
Comparison of prolificacy distribution as between white and colored
women in the Southeast (Figure 74) is made difficult by the high per-
centage of Negro illegitimacy, reaching about 13 percent of all births in
1930. Illegitimate births are largest among first-order births, but with
these included, a much larger proportion of Negro wives are found to have
one or no children. Childlessness is much more common among Negroes.
Figure 74 shows that 27 percent of Negro women have no births as com-
pared with 1 9. 1 percent of white women, while 28.8 percent Negroes
have one birth as compared with 17.8 percent of white women. Up to
the ninth child white women are more fertile than Negroes j but 7.3 per-
cent of Negro wives have 10 children or more as compared with $-5 per-
cent of white wives.
THE DECLINE IN BIRTHS, I92O-I93O
Certain of the important factors influencing recent changes in the birth
rate can be stated in terms that are open to statistical measurement from
figures that are available or can be estimated. Of these changes, four are
of the greatest importance; namely, changes (i) in age-specific birth rates,
(2) in the rural-urban distribution of the population, (3) in the age of
the population, and (4) in the nativity and race distribution of the popu-
lation. Following the method developed by Thompson and Whelpton,3 we
have attempted to measure the influence of these factors on the decline in
births in the Southeast from 1920 to 1930 (Figure 75). The decline in
age-specific fertility was found to be of much greater importance than all
other changes in population composition. The 641,689 births occurring in
1929-1931 amounted to 88.1 percent of the births in 1918-1921. Twelve
percent of the births, however, were due to the increase in the numbers
of the population of 1930 over 1920. Changes in age-sex composition were
actually favorable to a slight increase of 2.2 percent in births while changes
in rural-urban distribution accounted for a loss of only 1.6 percent. Thus
for the total population of the Southeast, the decline in specific fertility
accounted for a loss of 180,733 births, a decline of 28.8 percent from the
1918-1921 level.
For the total population, changes in race composition accounted for
practically no differences. For the white population considered separately
it meant a gain of 4.3 percent in births, for the colored a loss of 8.6 per-
cent. Change in rural-urban distribution meant slight losses in births— 1.5
'Procedure described by Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Population Trends in the United
States (New York: McCraw-H.ll, ,933), p. 273, had to be somewhat mod;fied becaus£
or some data required.
IOO
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 75. Difference in Number of Births by Race as Attributed
to Change in Five Factors, Southeast, 1920-1930
BIRTHS SAINED
BIRTHS LOST
'///////A
Z.DUE TO DECREASED FERTILITY"
B
WHITE B
NE8RO B
RTHS
RTHS
3. DUE TO CHAN8E IN A8E AND SEX COMPOSITIQN
DUE TO CHAN6E IN RURAL-URBAN DISTRIBUTION
-140
-120
-100
-80
5. DUE TO CHANGE IN RACE COMPOSITION
-60 -40 "20
THOUSANDS OF BIRTHS
40
60
Source: Population Statistics, State Data, National Resources Committee, 1937, pp. 3 and 7; Fourteenth
Census of the United States, 1920, Population, Vol. II, Ch. 3, Table 13; Vol. Ill, Table IO; Fifteenth
Census of the United States, 1930, Population, Vol. II, Ch. 10, Table 24; Vol. Ill, Table 12; Umted
States Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, 191 8-21 and 1929-31.
percent for the white and 2 percent for the colored. The change in age-
sex distribution favored increased births for both races, 2.4 percent among
the white and 1.8 percent among the colored population. For the whites
the decline in age-specific fertility accounted for the greater loss in births,
a decline of 27.4 percent as compared with a loss of 19.4 percent of the
Negro births as of 1920. A much greater loss of potential Negro births
since 1920 can be laid to the race's losses from interregional migration.
Here they lost 8.6 percent of 1920 births as compared with a 4.3 percent
gain among the white group.
factors in the south's extra fertility
These trends raise the question: What is responsible for the South-
east's extra fertility? Do the people of the region have a higher birth
rate because they are more rural, because they are younger, or because
of their racial composition? To the extent that southern fertility is found
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY
101
Figure 76. Calculated Loss of Births in the Southeast Under the
Assumption of Demographic Conditions as in the
United States, 1930
TOTAL REDUCTION IN NUMBER OF BIRTHS (DUE TO 4 FACTORS)
2.REDUCTI0N DUE TO URBAN-RURAL DISTRIBUTION AS IN THE U.S.
3.REDUCTI0N DUE TO AGE COMPOSITION AS IN THE U.S.
4.RE0UCTI0N DUE TO RACE COMPOSITION AS IN THE U..S
80
90
O 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
NUMBER OF BIRTHS LOST UNOER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS (IN THOUSANDS)
Source: United States Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, 1930; Tables I and IV. Statistical
Abstract of the United States, 1937, Table II.
not to depend on these factors, it must be due simply to the tendency of
women of given ages to have more children j that is, to higher age-
specific fertility.
There is available a technique for measuring the comparative impor-
tance of these four various factors on southern fertility. It consists of
assuming that all factors affecting fertility are held at the same rate as
in the Nation. This simply means that we must assume that the popula-
tion of the Nation has shrunk to the size of that of the Southeast, keep-
ing unchanged its ratios of (i) racial, (2) rural-urban, and (3) age dis-
tributions as well as all its specific birth rates.4 When all factors affecting
fertility in the Southeast are held as in the Nation, it is found that births
in the Southeast in 1930 (Figure 76) would have been reduced by 82,760 —
a decrease of 14.6 percent. National ratios in the distribution of races
would reduce total southern births by only .5 percent j in rural-urban resi-
dence,5 by 2.5 percent j in age, 3.2 percent. Age-specific fertility is thus
responsible for a reduction of 47,691 births or 8.4 percent of the former
1 Procedure used in these computations was an adaptation of method by Thompson and Whelpton
mentioned above.
5 Urban population is here defined as in the Vital Statistics Reports as population in cities of 10.000
and over.
102 ALL THESE PEOPLE
number. Thus it can be seen that over half of the area's extra fertility
is simply due to the tendency of women in the region — irrespective of race,
rurality, or of age difference — to have more children. Given the race,
the rural-urban, and the age distribution characteristic of the Nation, births
in the Southeast would be reduced only 6.2 percent. This higher specific
fertility may be taken as an index of the lag in the practice of family limi-
tation in the region.
Several conclusions emerge from this analysis. It is true that specific
fertility, irrespective of race, residence, and age-sex composition, accounts
for higher reproduction in the Southeast. The Southeast appears to have a
fertility differential in excess of what can be accounted for by other measur-
able demographic and social characteristics. The calculation of specific
fertility by income status, if it were possible, might account for much of
this disparity. It is also shown that the decline in specific fertility is more
important than all other changes in reducing reproduction in the region from
1920 to 1930. The figures indicate, as we shall see later, that the proc-
ess continued in the period 1930- 1940.
THE EFFECT OF MORTALITY ON BIRTH RATES IN THE
SOUTHEAST, 1 920 AND 1 930
The question is often asked whether further decreases in the death
rate will not serve to compensate for expected declines in births. The
answer to this question is suggested for the Southeast in the following
analysis. The death of women before they have passed through the child-
bearing period has undoubtedly reduced births in the past; and with
knowledge of death and birth rates by specific ages we can calculate the
loss of births due to such deaths. The life of women, it was suggested,
may be thought of as divided into three periods: the reproductive period,
roughly 15-50; and the periods before and after. For purposes of our
analysis the post-reproductive period can be disregarded. For, while in-
crease in length of life of women after age 50 adds to the total population,
such increase adds nothing to the number of births.
What, then, is the effect of deaths of mothers, actual and potential,
on births in the Southeast? The actual annual loss in births because of
mortality among women in the child-bearing ages, 15 to 50, is very small,
falling under 1 percent of all births for the period 1929-31. However,
this computation may be misleading because it only accounts for the actual
loss of births — not the potential births that could have occurred if women
could have been saved from death until the end of the reproductive period.
It also disregards the very important loss of prospective mothers due to
deaths of girls under 15, especially infant mortality. The importance of
mortality among women in the reduction of births can be fully appraised
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY
103
only when the cumulative effect of all female deaths from age o to 50 is
taken into account. Thus, using life table procedure and assuming age-
specific fertility and mortality as of 1929-31, it can be shown that 13.9
percent of all white births and 28.1 percent of colored births could be
saved in the Southeast, if no female deaths occurred from age o to the
end of the child-bearing age (Figure 77). For 191 8-21, the potential
loss of births was much greater — 22 percent for white mothers and 41.4
percent for colored. Obviously, deaths of colored women exact a much
higher toll than those of white 5 however, both white and colored reproduc-
tion rates would have been considerably higher if a drastic reduction in
female deaths could be accomplished.
These calculations lead us to several conclusions. As the South becomes
more like the Nation, its births will decline ; but as health conditions im-
prove, births would presumably rise. Contraception for the masses thus
would still remain an important issue in southern population.
FIGURE 77. ACTUAL NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND
COMPUTED NUMBER OF BIRTHS LOST ANNUALLY
BECAUSE OF MORTALITY OF WOMEN FROM
BIRTH TO END OF THE REPRODUCTIVE PERIOD,
SOUTHEAST BY RACE, 1929-1931
IVUMSER Of BIRTHS LOST
ACTUAL NUMBER Of BIRTHS
AOE-GROUR Of MOTHERS
ASE-OROUR Of MOTHERS
Source: Population Statistics, State Data, National
Resources Committee, pp. 3 and 7; Fifteenth Census
of the United States, 1930, Population, Vol. II,
Chapter 10, Table 24; United States Mortality Sta-
tistics, 1929, 1930, 193 1 ; Mary Gover, "Mortality
Among Southern Negroes Since 1920," Public Health
Bulletin, No. 235, p. 8; Frank Lorimer and Freder-
ick Osborn, Dynamics of Population (New York,
1934), Appendix B, p. 356.
104 ALL THESE PEOPLE
CULTURAL CONDITIONS
This is about as far as we can go in the attempt to explain reproductive
behavior on the basis of statistical data gathered from the population en
masse. Many students feel that we can not explain fertility patterns except
in terms of the culture of the people and their personal attitudes, much
as the anthropologist studies a new folk group. Cultural studies of the
high fertility complex in folk-regional areas, however, are few and far
between.6 It is safe to say that none of the attempts yet made satisfy the
criteria established by anthropology for cultural studies or those set up by
social psychology for studies of motivation and attitudes.
Admitting the obvious difficulties faced by such studies, we may well
discuss two unsolved problems in this field. The first has to do with the
involved relation of that culture complex known as the standard of living
to the actual level of living as affected by the size of the family. Here
we may well inquire as to what extent groups with excess fertility possess
standards higher than their actual levels of living. The second unsolved
problem is reached when we ask why standards do not go over into family
limitation practices. This question should also be attacked as a problem in
the culture complex. It leads to a consideration of folk attitudes toward
sex behavior in the marital relation.
STANDARDS OF LIVING
The point should be made early in the discussion that phenomena
related to the standard of living and the pattern of fertility can be viewed
from both the cultural and the individual point of view. Individual
variations based on differences in intelligence and cultural participation
should be expected, but within comparatively isolated folk, regional, and
class groups there will be found modal attitudes that blanket these homo-
geneous communities. Homogeneity is likely to prevail in such areas
because standards are limited in two ways: first, to what is known by com-
munication; and, second, to what is attainable by economic status. A tenant
family will hardly be concerned with keeping up with the Joneses, (i)
if there are no Joneses within their ken, or (2) if the Joneses they encounter
have standards that are completely out of reach. Marriage in such folk
groups is likely to be delayed only until the worker gains a competence
equivalent to that of his peers, and fertility may be limited little or not
at all.
6 A cooperative study of social and psychological factors affecting fertility among a selected native
white group in Indianapolis is now being made under the auspices of the Milbank Memorial Fund,
with grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. A progress report was presented by P. K.
Whelpton, field director of the investigation, at the Nineteenth Annual Conference of the Milbank
Memorial Fund. For a summary of the report, see: Lowell J. Reed, "Research in Factors Influencing
Fertility," American Journal of Public Health, XXXI (September, 1941), 984-985.
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY 105
The implications of the cultural point of view may be further explored.
We have been told by practically every study in the field that contracep-
tives, including widely known folk methods, are only the means or me-
chanics of family limitation. The motivation to their use must come
largely from the family's desire to attain or maintain a certain standard
of living. Here we are concerned with groups on whom the ordinary
prudential controls weigh so lightly that such means are but little used.
Stix and Notestein rightly point out that "the situation will not be rapidly
altered merely by making modern contraception available to populations
that have not utilized the folkway methods at their disposal. There must
also be the will to reduce fertility."7
So far our analysis has shown the association of low levels of living
with high fertility but it has not explained that association in terms of
values and attitudes; that is, of the culture content of the standard of living
of these groups. Thus the introduction of contraceptive practices involves
the invasion of new values and the adoption of new attitudes — not merely
the acceptance of an efficient technique.
The structure of prevailing attitudes is to be found in the cultural con-
tent of the standard of living. If there exists the validity assumed in the
distinction between the standard of living and the level of living, this
distinction should be of value in determining why folk and other methods
of family limitation are not more widely used.
The question involved may be posed in such fashion as to bring out
the distinction between standards and actual levels of living. Is it possible,
for example, that a people can be led to raise their standard of what they
expect from life without having first experienced an increase in their actual
levels of living? We so often see this accomplished by highly motivated,
individuals that we may feel it is unnecessary to ask the question about
groups. Such a question intimates that a group may glean a cultural defini-
tion of the situation from something other than cultural experience. The
experiencing which conditions the motivation to raise standards would
thus be vicarious and symbolic, deriving from verbal conditioning.
Concretely, the calculation of a standard versus a level of living is best
carried on in a money economy by an informal process of balancing the
books of a family budget. The subsistence areas of the Appalachians and
the credit and "furnish" system of southern tenancy areas, it must be
recalled, have largely remained outside the cash nexus of our money
economy. This is especially true in relation to the economics of large
families. Initial costs of child birth and prenatal care are met by the
mjnimum services of midwives and neighborhood help. The system of
7R. K. Stix and F. W. Notestein, Controlled Fertility (Baltimore: The Williams and Wilkins Com-
pany, 1940), p. 152.
106 ALL THESE PEOPLE
cost accounting and anticipation forced on the urban dweller is largely
evaded and only gradually makes its appearance as the number of children
increases in the rural household. Deferred payments and do-without enter
largely into the lower level of living which creeps with less evident cal-
culation upon the growing family in agrarian areas. Less is done for
children in such culture areas, and more is expected from them in co-
operative farm work and family labor- — -an evasion which the city dweller
cannot make.
We may ask what, for example, does high-school education, slowly
making its way among some of these groups, do for those in the lower
levels? It is usually assumed that such acculturation operates to raise
standards and lower fertility, and that these trends then go over into in-
creased incomes and improved levels of living. We have many cam-
paigns to raise the levels of living of groups. What would happen to a
campaign which, making no attempt to increase incomes, attempted to
raise a people's standards?
One of the techniques of revolution, it is pointed out, has been found
in the attempt to raise a people's expectations and standards above any
reasonable hope of immediate attainment. The resulting tension is then
assumed to offer the motivation for revolt. In the economic field this
would involve changes in the cultural definition of the situation based not
on experienced reality but on vicarious and symbolic experience, founded
on propaganda or education.
Negatively, a lowering of actual levels of living should operate to
restrict fertility in a way that the attempts to effect a rising standard have
not yet achieved among folk groups. That this is no idle theory is indi-
cated by the one example of Ireland. A dire famine that threatened, in
fact destroyed, subsistence for many has given that country the lowest
marriage rate in the world. Ireland is the one country which followed
Malthus' advice, namely, limitation of population increase by practice of
"delayed marriage with moral restraint." Carr-Saunders has shown that
from 1 841 to 1926 the proportion of females aged 25 to 35 who were un-
married rose from 28 to 53 percent.8 For those who marry, age-specific
fertility has fallen but little. What Ireland accomplished by following
Malthus and the Catholic Church, other peoples do by family limitation
when their standards are threatened. Yet the socially isolated mountain
people, rural Negroes, and farm tenants who have not been led to adopt
contraceptive practices by an urge to raise standards in a subsistence or a
credit economy do accept family limitation when they migrate to cities.
Any serious threat to their present low levels of living might also reduce
fertility.
8 A. M. Carr-Saunders, World Population (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1936), pp. 90-92.
THE PATTERN OF HIGH FERTILITY 107
In the expansive period of cotton culture, farm youth lacking capital
and experience were able to enter marriage and agriculture at the same
time on the low level of cropper tenancy. Pre-war conditions in cotton
culture, discussed in Chapter 16, suggest that these openings are being
closed, and the displacement of farm tenants and the threatened disintegra-
tion of the system bring up certain comparisons with the situation of the
Irish peasantry. Such drastic changes may operate to delay marriage and
depress fertility at a faster rate than anticipated after the war.
SEX ATTITUDES
Sex behavior has its motivations no less than economic behavior. Sex
attitudes of the folk in the marital relation deserve more discussion in this
connection than they have yet received. One of the contributions of Mar-
garet Jarman Hagood's study of farm tenant mothers was to show that
among the folk this relation is not often discussed between husband and
wife, and that, moreover, there exists no scientific or objective terminology
in which it can be discussed.9
Dr. Hagood found that the general attitude of not wanting more
children was unaccompanied by any general practices designed to prevent
their conception. Of 69 tenant farm mothers questioned only 8 used con-
traceptives. Nevertheless 37 out of 42 expressed opinions favoring birth
control. She found a common complaint that "doctors tell you not to
have any more children but won't tell you nothing to do about it." Four-
teen asked directly what to do.
This attitude on the part of farm mothers is one of hopeless resignation
rather than one of either revolt or prudential control. Revolt would in-
volve negative attitudes toward customary morality, toward religion, and
toward their husbands to whom they acknowledge affection and duties. Pru-
dential behavior would involve more control over marital relations than
can be assumed of wives in the folk group.
Here we may be confronted by a masculine-feminine dichotomy which
is not resolved by interaction in the marriage relation. In patriarchal cul-
tures the consideration of these questions of family limitation may go by
default, largely because of the unseen factors of masculine aggression and
dominance in the sex relation. Folk methods of family limitation are
not used and technical methods which depend upon the initiative of the
wife are not introduced. Here we need a knowledge of the sex and fer-
tility attitudes of husbands comparable to that of the mothers studied by
Dr. Hagood.
6 Margaret Jarman Hagood, Mothers, of the South (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press,
'939), PP- 122-125.
108 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Masculine domination, however, is but a partial approach if we admit
validity to the previous discussion of economic status and standards of
living. One would find, no doubt, that among husbands the conflict
between prudential and hedonistic motives had given rise to a feeling of
resignation involving rationalizations similar to those of the wives. The
uncovering of such attitudes, however, would be much more difficult.
It is now realized that the most optimistic assumption of the early birth-
control movement was that of an ideal contraceptive which would place
little or no restraint on the pleasure principle. We now realize that the
libido will be subject to prudential restraint and that the motivation of
this behavior among folk groups must come from economic pressures that
represent the resolution of forces and motives engendered by desires for an
improved level of living. Much has been said of the place of contra-
ceptive clinics in the public health program. It can be added that public
health programs devoted to the diffusion of better prenatal and obstetric
care, if at all implemented in economic terms, would do much to raise
standards and thus lower fertility among folk groups. The more care that
is devoted to each child under the influence of rising standards, the fewer
children the family in any cultural group is likely to have. It is in this
field that individual attitudes meet with public policy — a topic that must
be reserved for discussion in later chapters on population policy and
planning.
CHAPTER 9
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
If all the [farm] laborers in a village bring up several Sons in the same work
there will be too many Laborers to cultivate the land belonging to this village and
the superfluous adults will have to seek their living somewhere else, ordinarily in
the Cities: if some stay with their Fathers, since they will not find enough work they
wifl hve in great poverty, and will not marry or if they marry the children born
will soon die of misery along with the Father and the Mother, as we see every day
in France —Richard Cantillon, "Essai Sur La Nature Du Commerce en General,"
1755, in A. E. Monroe, Early Economic Thought, p. 247.
Preceding chapters have indicated the high .rate of natural increase in the
Southeast. The population resulting could have been retained in the region
only by a greatly expanding economy. Economic expansion in agriculture
and industry, once the area was fully settled, has not been large enough
to take care of all natural increase. The Southeast was among the first
areas to be settled and its states have contributed a large share to the
streams of internal migration which have flowed across our country There
are for example, certain Coastal and Piedmont counties in Virginia which
had less population in 1930 than at the time of the first Census in 1790
As an important part of population study the trend of migration since
1850 will be reviewed in this chapter. It may help somewhat, as we have
suggested, to think of our regions as great reservoirs of population con-
nected with each other by streams of migration. Into each region, popu-
lation flows by the entrances of birth and immigration. Out of each region
population flows by the exits of death and emigration. The level attained
by these flows gives us an ever changing regional balance of population
which, no doubt, bears some relation to the supporting capacity of the area
viewed in terms of (1) physical resources, (2) the state of economic organi-
zation and the technical arts, (3) the training and abilities of the population,
and (4) the relationship of the region to other areas. Such a view sees
the region as a reservoir of population and views migration into or out
of the area as an index of important economic and social changes.
[ 109]
no ALL THESE PEOPLE
When the inflow of natural increase is great, the outflow of migration
is also likely to be large. The only alternative, Cantillion believed in
1755, is likely to be death of part of the population. We realize today
that within certain undefined limits the reservoir itself can increase in .
sjze — that is to say there may be an expansion of the basis of economic
support of the people. This has happened in the Southeast and one object
of our study is to show something of the trend of migration as it relates
to economic development in the region and the Nation.
THE TREND OF MIGRATION
The Southern population has taken part in three great migrations: one
agricultural and two industrial. These are ( 1 ) the expansion westward of
the Cotton Kingdom, (2) the great interstate migration to the Northeast
and Middle States, and (3) the movement to the region's own cities.
The first, the expansion of the Cotton Kingdom, is a familiar theme
of historians of the Old South and lies largely outside our consideration.
The pull of new resources and the push of population increase and soil
exhaustion prompted it, and the movement carried the Cotton Kingdom
from the Sea Islands to the Panhandle. We will never know how many
sons of farm owners moved West to become tenants, but we do know that
as the Cotton Belt approached the limits of its geographic and market
expansion, the proportion of tenants and croppers increased. This popu-
lation increase is a fact of importance for the region's later migrations.
The early agricultural migration was characterized by the continued
position of the East as a reservoir of population. Thornthwaite uses State
of birth data to show that by 1850 Virginia, the Carolinas, Kentucky, Geor-
gia, and Tennessee were losing native white population by migration.1
By' 1870 Alabama had become a State of net outward migration to be
joined by Mississippi in 1880, Louisiana in 1890, and Arkansas in 1920.
In the Southeast only Louisiana and Florida have consistently gained more
population than they have lost by migration since 1880. Between 1890
and 1900 the principal movements were into Texas from the old South
JC Warren Thornthwaite, Internal Migration in the United States (Philadelphia: University of
Pennsylvania Press, 1934), Plate II and pp. <>-"■ Estimates of the amount of the population move-
ments have to be calculated from the very inadequate data we have on interstate migration and rural-
urban migration. All figures on internal migration, it must be emphasized, are estimates and vary
according to types of data and methods used in their calculation. Until the 1940 Census there were
four main sources: (1) Census materials on State of birth and of residence of the white and Negro
population born in continental United States furnish partial evidence on the nature and course of migra-
tions. (2) Age-group data from the Census can be manipulated with life tables to show net migration
by States. (3) Vital statistics can be used in connection with the Census to show net migration for units
as small as counties. (4) Estimates made by the Department of Agriculture since 1920 show rural
urban migration, but by Census Divisions only. In the interpretation of migration figures based on
any of these sources, two qualifications must be kept in mind: that the figures are estimates rather than
direct measures of migration, and that all except the rural-urban estimates are of net movement rather
than of total magnitudes.
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP i r i
(102,000) and into Oklahoma from the Middle West (152,000). In
addition there was a small movement from the Middle West into Cali-
fornia (10,000). Between 1900 and 19 10 the movement into Oklahoma
assumed large proportions (445>ooo without including 111,000 from
Texas), as did also a movement from the more northernly of the middle
western states into Washington and Oregon (295,00c)).2
The second movement has been the great interstate migration to indus-
trial areas, mainly in the Northeast and Middle States. Thornthwaite
feels that the migration history of all agricultural areas follows a uniform
pattern. About three decades after the first settlement, the immigration
surplus reaches a maximum and after about three more decades of decreas-
ing surplus, emigration sets in. This pattern is made clear by mapping
States of surplus and deficit migration from State of birth data offered
in the Census. This transition is further shown by the decline in the
East- West migration and the increase in the South-North movement. In
1890, 10. 1 percent of the people born east of the Mississippi River were
living west of it while only 2.9 percent of those born west were living
east of the River. By 1930 these percentages had changed to 6.6 and
5.4 respectively. From 1890 to 1930 the percentage born South and living
in the North increased from 5.8 to 8.6. Similarly the proportions born in
the North and living in the South have grown slowly from 2.0 percent
in 1890 to only 3.2 in 1930.3
THE RECORD OF THE SOUTHEAST
Calculations for the Southeast on the basis of age-group data show that
by decades the net loss by migration of native whites grew from a mere
trickle of 21,200 in the 1870's to over a million in the 1920's. Table 21
shows that over six decades this net loss increased from —0.4 percent to
—7.5 percent of the region's native white population. Over the sixty
year period following 1870 the Southeast experienced a net loss of three
and a third million native white people. In each decade before 1930 the
numerical loss has increased and in every decade, except 18 90- 1900, the
percentage loss has increased. For 1920 Southern Regions computed for
the region a net migration loss since birth of over 2,3 75,000 ; by 1930 this
had grown to 3,412,000 indicating a net outward movement of over a
million in the 1920- 1930 decade. From 1930 to 1940, however, this out-
flow decreased to a mere trickle of less than 1,000.
More males than females migrated outside the area in every period
except the decade 19 10 to 1920 (Table 22). Just what is indicated by the
2 Ibid., pp. 16-18.
3 Warren S._ Thompson. Research Memorandum on Internal Migration in the Depression (New
rork: Social Science Research Council, 1937), p. 15.
112
Table 21,
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Decennial Net Loss by Migration of Native White
Population, Southeast, 1 870-1 940
Decennial period
Population
at beginning
of decennial
period
Expected
population
at end of
decennial
period
Actual
population
at end of
period
Lc
ss
Number
Percent
(in 1000's)
1870-1880
5,889.9
7,601.5
9,184.2
10,504.7
12,528.8
14,522.3
16,598.3
7,662.7
9,596.5
10,963.8
13,108.5
15,322.5
18,042.9
19,272.6
7,601.5
9,184.2
10,504.7
12,528.8
14,522.3
16,958.3
19,271.7
- 21.2
- ,421.3
- 459.1
- 579.8
- 800.2
-1,084.6
0.9
-0.4
1880-1890.
-5.4
1890-1900
-5.2
1900-1910
-5.5
1910-1920
-6.4
1920-1930
-7.5
1930-1940
-0.0
Source: H. L. Geisert, The Balance of Inter-State Migration in the Southeast (unpublished doctoral dissertation. University of
North Carolina, 1938), p. 125. Based on age-group data from the Census with special adjustment for the population under
ten years of age.
Table 22. Decennial Change by Net Migration in Native White
Population, by Sex, Southeast, i 870-1 930
Net change by migration
Decennial period
and sex
Net change by migration
Decennial period
and sex
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
1870-1880
- 42,468
21,244
-211,821
-200,515
-240,741
-218,370
-1.5 '
0.7
-5.6
-5.3
-5.5
-5.0
1900-1910
Male
-298,793
-280,971
-399,402
-400,783
-569,708
-514,917
-5.6
-5.4
1880-1890
Male
1910-1920
Female
-6.3
-6.5
1890-1900
1920-1930
Male
-7.7
Female
-7.2
Source- H. L. Geisert, The Balance of Inter-State Migration in the Southeast (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University
of North Carolina, 1938), p. 125.
predominance of male migrants is difficult to say because of the paucity of
data. It may suggest that while men were drawn to heavy industries out-
side the region the women of the South were not taking advantage of
clerical and other opportunities open to women. On the other hand there
is the suggestion drawn from 1920- 1930 data that women move in greater
number to the towns and cities within the region. The differences in any
case are not great.
The year 1930 offers a point of vantage for balancing the migration
accounts of our total native-born population. The regional picture of
migration since birth can be presented from the State birth-residence data.
In 1930, 86.4 percent of all native population were still living in the State
where they were born. Table 23 shows that the Far West and the"North-
east have held the largest proportion of their people, 93.2 and 91.8 per-
cent respectively j the Northwest even in 1930 had lost the most — holding
only 73.5 percent of its native born. Next come the Southeast, Southwest,
and Middle States, each retaining about 85 percent of their native born.
Inspection of the table will also serve to indicate where the natives of each
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
113
Table 23. Native Population by Region of Birth with Number and
Percentage of Inhabitants Residing Within or Outside the Region
of Their Birth, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1930
Region of birth
United States
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle States..
Northwest
Far West
D. C
Number
Percent .
Number
Percent.
Number
Percent.
Number
Percent.
Number.
Percent.
Number.
Percent.
Number.
Percent .
Number.
Region of Residence
All regions
108,065,719
100.0
31,108,045
100.0
28,695,893
100.0
7,286,848
100.0
30,947,423
100.0
6,310,780
100.0
3,442,614
100.0
274,116
Northeast
30,475,611
28 2
28,543,905
91.8
1,102,954
3.8
37,253
0.5
619,379
2.0
71,103
1.1
44,203
1.3
56,814
Southeast
25,283,743
23.4
316,461
1.0
24,220,863
84.4
170,191
2.3
494,223
1.6
49,207
0.8
13,750
0.4
19,048
Southwest
8,567,855
7.9
105,025
0.3
1,132,742
3.9
6,448,379
88.5
601,651
1.9
240,427
3 8
38,069
1.1
1,562
Middle States
29,875,047
27.6
1,312,064
4.2
1,635,508
5.7
149,045
2.0
26,144,216
84.5
564,923
9.0
60,415
1.8
8,876
Region of birth
United States .
Northeast
Southeast.
Southwest.
Middle States.
Northwest
Far West.
D. C
Number.
Percent.
Number.
Percent .
Number.
Percent . .
Number.
Percent. .
Number.
Percent . .
Number.
Percent. .
Number. .
Percent. .
Number. .
Region of Residence
Northwest
6,705,322
6.2
182,461
0.6
176,092
0.6
177,365
2.4
1,455,394
4.7
4,638,248
73.5
74,260
2.1
1,502
Far West
6,706,480
6.2
535,633
1.7
308,140
1.1
301,412
4.1
1,604,157
5.2
741,819
11.8
3,209,869
93.2
5,450
D. C.
451,661
0.5
112,496
0.4
119,594
0.5
3,203
0.1
28,403
0.1
5,053
0.1
2,048
0.1
180,864
Total living
in other regions
14,679,375
13.6
2,564,140
8.2
4,475,030
15.6
838,469
11.5
4,803,207
15.5
1,672,532
26.5
232,745
6.8
93,252
ptrsons^n ™*U^aVtk£k£? .forThom State of birth was not reported are omitted from this table. The total number of
persons in the United States living in their State of birth are 93, 386,344, or 86.4 percent of all native population.
Source: Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population (General). Table 56.
region lived in 1930. Thus we can pick out the favorite areas of migra-
tion by showing that 4.2 percent of those born in the Northeast lived in
the Middle States while 5.2 percent of the natives of the Middle States
live in the Far West. From the Southeast 5.7 percent have gone to the
Middle States, 3.9 percent to the Southwest, and 3.8 percent to the North-
east.
Figure 78 gives the ranking by States in percentage of natives lost.
Only 8.3 percent of those born in California live elsewhere, as compared
with more than 25 percent from such diverse States as Montana, Iowa,
Vermont, Kansas, and Nevada. While native-born Southerners have
moved in smaller proportions than natives of the Northwest, 15.6 per-
cent as compared with 26.5 percent, the States of the Southeast rank
higher in their contribution of numbers.
ii4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 78. Percentage of Native-Born Population Living in
Other States, United States, 1930
3E
Source: Abstract of the Fifteen!/, Census of the United States, 1930, Population, General, Table S3-
Table 24 and Figure 79 indicate the areas of birth of the resident
populations. Thus Table 24 shows that 52.1 percent of the residents in
the Far West were born elsewhere, as compared with only 30.8 percent for
the Northwest and 24.7 percent for the Southwest. The Southeast has
received the smallest proportion from other regions, 4.2 percent. Further
examination of the table shows the regions of origin. Thus 13.2 percent
of the native resident population of the Southwest was from the Southeast.
The Middle States have drawn more of their residents from the Southeast,
5.5 percent, than elsewhere. The Southeast, drawing but lightly, drew
most from the Middle States and the Northeast, 1.9 percent and 1.3 per-
cent respectively. .
Figure 79, which shows similar data for States, admits only Oklahoma
and Florida to that western group of states which drew more than 45 per-
cent of their resident population from other States. Among the States
drawing less than 15 percent of their residents from other areas will be
found 8 States of the Southeast and 3 of the Northeast.
The differences that we have recounted are so great that we may at-
tempt from Figure 80 to balance accounts in the ledger of migration.
The Far West has received a net immigration of 3,263,866, amounting
to 48.7 percent of its resident native population. The absolute loss of the
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
ii5
Table 24. Native Population by Region of Residence with Number
and Percentage of Inhabitants Born Within or Outside the
Region of Their Residence, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1930
Region of Birth
Region of Residence
All regions
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle States
Number
Number
Number
108,065,719
100.0
30,475,611
100.0
25,283,743
100.0
8,567,855
100.0
29,875,047
100.0
6,705,322
100.0
6,706,480
100.0
451,661
31,108,045
28.8
28,543,905
93.7
316,461
1.3
105,025
1.2
1,312,064
4.4
182,461
2.7
535,633
8.0
112,496
28,695,893
26.6
1,102,954
3.6
24,220,863
95.8
1,132,742
13.2
1,635,508
5.5
176,092
2.6
308,140
4.6
119,594
7,286,848
6.7
37,253
0.1
170,191
0.7
6,448,379
75.3
149,045
0.5
177,365
2.6
301,412
4.5
3,203
30,947,423
28.6
619,379
2.0
494,223
1.9
601,651
7.0
26,144,216
87.5
1,455,394
21.7
1,604,157
23.9
28,403
Far West
D. C.
Region of Birth
Region of residence
Northwest
Far West
D. C.
All other than
region of
residence
Total
Movementf
Number
Percent
Number
Number
6,310,780
5.8
71,103
0.2
49,207
0.2
240,427
2.8
564,923
1.9
4,638,248
69.2
741,819
11.1
5,053
3,442,614
3.2
44,203
0.1
13,750
*
38,069
0.5
60,415
0.2
74,260
1.1
3,209,869
47.9
2,048
274,116
0.3
56,814
0.2
19,048
0.1
1,562
*
8,876
*
1,502
*
5,450
0.1
180,864
14,679,375
13.6
1,931,706
6.3
1,062,880
4.2
2,119.476
24.7
3,730,831
12.5
2,067,074
30.8
3,496,611
52.1
270,797
29,358,750*2=
=14,679,375
4,495,846
14.8
5,537,910
21.9
2,957,945
34.5
8,534,038
28.6
3,739,606
55.8
3,729,356
55.6
364,049
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Northwest
Far West
D. C.
•Less than 0.1 percent.
•(Total movement from and to region, i. e., arithmetic sum of inhabitants born outside of the region where they reside (Table 24)
and those born inagiven region but residing outside of it (Table 23). For the United States as a whole the total sum (29,358,750)
of migrants should be divided by 2 to get total number of migrants without duplication, since every movement affects two
regions at one time, and should be counted as one movement, and not as two when we consider the United States total. For
instance, in this table, we see that 316,461 persons were born in the Northeast and moved to the Southeast: they would there-
*orebe included among the 1,062,880 migrants for the Southeast (total born in other regions). But in Table 23 these same
■ i j j er8°nS aPp%H m the row for the Northeast as residing outside the region where they were born and are therefore
included among the 2,564,140 migrants from the Northeast. Since we obtain the total volume of movement by adding the two
last columns in Tables 23 and 24, we see that our 316,461 migrants would be counted twice in the total for the Nation. The net
interregional gain or loss through migration (algebraic sum of the same last columns of Tables 23 and 24) is given in Table 2S
(last column, net balance).
Note: The small number of persons for whom State of birth was not reported are omitted from this table.
Source: Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, General, Table 56.
Southeast, 3,412,150, was larger but it amounted to only 13.5 percent of
the resident population. Table 25 also shows the region to or from which
the interregional migration took place. Thus we can find that of the net
loss of over 3,400,000 in the Southeast, 1,141,000 went to the Middle
States, 962,000 to the Southwest, and so on. Interestingly enough the
Southeast sent to the District of Columbia almost twice as many net mi-
grants, 100,546, as did any other region.
Figure 81 which shows data by States serves to emphasize the losses
1 1 6 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 79. Percentage of State Residents Born in Other
States, United States, 1930
an:
Source: See Figure 78.
Figure 80. The Balance of Interregional Migration Among the
Native Population Since Birth, the Six Major Regions, 1930
Source: See Figure 78.
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
117
of the Southeast and the gains of Far Western States. Vermont lost 32.1
percent of its population. California gained 53.2 percent by net migration.
Table 25. Balance of Interregional Migration Among All Native
Population, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930
Region for
which net
Region to or from which interregional migration took place
Total
net gain
Total
net loss
gain (+) or
loss (— ) is
indicated
North-
east
South-
east
South-
west
Middle
States
North-
west
Far
West
D. C.
Net
balance
United
States . .
+632,434
+3,412,150
+ 786,493
-1,281,007
- 67,772
- 962,551
+1,072,376
- 692,685
-1,141,285
+ 452,606
-394,542
-111,358
-126,885
+ 63,062
-890,471
+667,559
+ 3,551
-3,263,866
- 491,430
- 294,390
- 263,343
-1,543,742
- 667,559
-177,545
- 55,682
-100,546
- 1,641
- 19,527
- 3,551
+ 3,402
+8,739,981
+ 786,493
0
+1,545,991
+1,833,970
+1,128,714
+3,263,866
+ 180,947
-8,739,981
-1,418,927
-3,412,150
- 264,984
-2,906,346
- 734,172
0
3,402
0
- 632,434
-3,412,150
+1,281,007
-1,072,376
+ 394,542
+3 263 866
Southeast. .
-786,493
+ 67,772
+692,685
+111,358
+491,430
+ 55,862
Southwest .
+ 962,551
+1,141,285
+ 126,885
+ 294,390
+ 100,546
Middle
States . . .
- 452,606
- 63,062
+ 263,343
+ 1,641
Northwest.
Far West. .
+ 890,471
+1,543,742
+ 19,527
D. C.......
3,402
+ 'l77|S4S
Source: Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population (General), Table 56.
Figure 8i. Net Change in the Native Population through
Interstate Migration, United States, 1930
Source: See Figure 78.
NEGRO MIGRATION
Negro migration deserves separate treatment. By 1930, 26.3 percent
of the Negroes born in the Southeast were living outside, making a net
loss of over 1,840,000 population. This figure may be compared with
the 15.6 percent of all southern born population who were living outside
n8
ALL THESE PEOPLE
the region in 1930. Figure 82 shows that the proportion of Negroes
living outside their States of birth in 1930 ranged from only 12.6 percent
for Texas to 75.1 percent for North Dakota. Of the Southern States,
Florida, Louisiana, and North Carolina had lost the smallest proportion
of their Negro population. Kentucky, Virginia, and Tennessee had lost
the largest proportions. In the West where Negroes are numerically unim-
portant they appear the least firmly settled. These States have lost from
40 to 75 percent of the Negroes born within their borders. Conversely
Figure 83 shows that from 60 to 90 percent of the resident Negroes in these
States were born outside. It is the southern States of densest Negro
population that have drawn the smallest proportion from outside their
borders. Thus only 2.2 percent of the Negroes in South Carolina came
from elsewhere, and less than 10 percent of their resident Negroes were
born outside the States of Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Florida, with 38.1 percent, and Arkansas, with 28.6 percent, have drawn
the largest proportion from outside. In Texas, surprisingly enough, only
1 1.4 percent of the resident Negroes were born in other states.
With the exception of the decade 1900- 19 10 the net movement of
native-born Negroes out of the Southeast has grown greater with each
decade since 1890 (Table 26). The loss of 129,000 in the decade 1890-
Figure 82. Percentage of Native-Born Negroes Living in
Other States, United States, 1930
Source: Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, General, Table 55.
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
Figure 83. Percentage of Negro Residents Born in Other
States, United States, 1930
119
Source: See Figure 82.
Table 26. Net Loss by Migration of Native Negro
Population, Southeast, 1 890-1930
Decade
Native Negro
population*
Loss by
migration
Percent
loss
Decade
Native Negro
population*
Loss by
migration
Percent
loss
1890 - 1900. . . .
1900- 1910....
5,899,000
6,845,000
-129,000
- 99,000
2.2
1.4
1910- 1920...
1920- 1930...
6,591,000
7,536,000
-323,000
-615,000
4.9
8.2
•At beginning of decennial period. All figures rounded to the nearest thousand.
Source:C. Warren Thornthwaite, Internal Migration in the United States (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1934 );
Eleventh Census of the United States. 1890: Twelfth Census of the United States, 1900; Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United
States, 1930, Population, General, Table 55.
Table 27. Net Change by Migration of Negro and Native White
Population from the Southeast, 192 0-1930
State of birth data
Age-group data
State
State of birth data
Age-group data
State
Negro
White
Negro
White
Negro
White
Negro
White
Southeast
-615,000
- 64,000
+ 3,000
-149,000
+ 1,000
- 1,000
-478,000
- 51,000
+ 43,000
- 26,000
-124,000
- 31,000
-796,000
-117,000
- 16,000
-205,000
- 15,000
- 14,000
-582,000
-111,000
+ 4,000
- 53,000
-188,000
-101,000
-212,000
+ 79,000
- 56,000
- 81,000
- 80,000
- 55,000
-117,000
+202,000
- 45,000
- 14,000
-192,000
- 23,000
-261,000
+ 54,000
- 81,000
- 69,000
- 47,000
- 25,000
-156,000
+267,000
- 70,000
- 34,000
-139,000
+ 1,000
Mississippi
Arkansas
North Carolina . . .
South Carolina . . .
Tennessee
Note: One reason for the higher figures in the age-group data is that they include all Negroes whereas the State of birth data
embrace only native-born Negroes.
?°!"ce: S- Warren Thornthwaite, Internal Migration in the United States (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press-
1934), Column 1, Plate III, D. p. 8: Column 2, Plate II, H, p. 8, Columns 3, 4, Plate VII, A and B.
120 ALL THESE PEOPLE
1900 grew to a loss of 615,000 by 1920- 1930. In the 1920's the region
lost 8.2 percent. Table 27 indicates that the States with greatest losses
were Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi. In addition it shows
that Negro losses exceed the losses by white migration except for Arkansas,
Tennessee, and Kentucky. Finally the table affords an interesting com-
parison of sources, showing that age-group data give larger estimates of net
migration than State of birth figures. For whites the excess is 21.8 per-
cent, for Negroes it is higher, 29.4. This is due in part to the fact that
age-group calculations were not limited to native Negroes.
The movement of Negro population has been concentrated in States
east of the Mississippi and has been from South to North across the Ohio
and Potomac rivers. Some Negro migration has paralleled the great popu-
lation shifts to Texas, Oklahoma, and California, but the great gains have
been in a few industrial cities in the North — St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit,
Cleveland, New York, and Philadelphia; and the chief losses have been
sustained by four States — Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Caro-^
lina. Much of the northward movement has been from one State to the
neighboring northern one so that the drift has been in the nature of a
State-to-State displacement.
It is interesting to note, from maps by Thornthwaite giving the source
of Negro population in the 12 cities of over 70,000 Negro population,
that this northward movement was roughly along meridians of longitude.
That is, the Negroes in New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and
Washington have come as though by direct lines from the Atlantic Coastal
States. Those in Chicago and St. Louis have come largely from Missis-
sippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, and Louisiana. While New York
and Philadelphia have not drawn large numbers from the interior states,
Chicago and St. Louis did not attract many Negroes from the Atlantic
Coastal States. Detroit and Cleveland followed the pattern less closely.
The southern cities, New Orleans, Birmingham, and Atlanta, received few
Negroes from outside the States in which they are situated.4 Memphis,
however, drew heavily upon Mississippi.
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION, I92O-I93O
The third great migration of the southern people has been to the
rapidly growing towns and cities within the region. Internal migration
must also be considered from the point of view of rural-urban mobility.
Southern migrants, by and large, originate on farms and they move in large
numbers to towns and cities in the Southeast.
In the following analysis it is estimated that the regional movement
to cities of the population since birth was about 76 percent of the move-
* Thornthwaite, op. cit., Plate IV, pp. 14"1?-
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP
Table 28. Net Farm-Urban Migration by Age Groups,
Southeast, 1 920-1 930
(Population in Thousands)
121
1)
Residence and
E
1
rt
a
"5.
rt
«.
u
m
Age Groups
<
<
0
'to
O
6
3
C
i5
'3
0
1
t £
O rt
£0
c
>
**« qj
— -C
&\
E— • co
Total
0-9
- 38.6
- 18.1
17.8
-43.1
-34.2
- .8
- 7.7
- 6.2
- 25.9
- 28.8
- 24.0
- 209.6
10-19
- 30.8
- 31.7
66.5
- 63.2
- 45.2
16.2
4.6
14.6
- 23.8
- 16.6
- 43.3
- 152.7
20-29
- 65.6
- 71.1
77.2
-130.5
- 85.4
- 4.0
- 46.6
- 17.7
- 98.7
- 53.0
- 94.5
- 589.9
30-39
- 36.9
- 34.5
65.1
- 93.7
- 38.4
- 3.4
- 23.4
- 4.7
- 57.4
- 24.5
- 53.4
- 305.2
40-49
- 1.5
- 3.2
47.2
- 43.9
- 15.4
3.1
- 8.0
15.4
- 14.5
- 14.0
- 15.5
- 50.3
50-59
- 6.6
- 16.7
24.8
- 8.1
- 7.6
- 10.6
- 6.1
5.8
- 16.7
11.2
- 10.9
- 41.5
60-69
- 2.9
- 10.2
17.4
- 18.0
- 5.4
- 1.6
- 3.7
- 4.4
- .9
- 7.8
- 3.9
- 41.4
70-up
- 3.1
- 6.5
9.1
- 9.9
- 2.2
- .8
- 5.5
- 2.3
- 5.4
- 5.1
- 4.1
- 35.8
All
-186.0
-192.0
325.1
-410.4
—233.8
- 1.9
- 96.4
.5
-243.3
-138.6
-249.6
-1426.4
Rural Farm
0-9
- 35.0
- 23.3
- 5.4
- 56.3
- 42.3
- 13.8
- 15.1
- 26.7
- 36.3
- 34.6
- 17.5
- 306.3
10-19
- 49.5
- 41.6
- 5.0
-113.4
- 72.6
- 12.7
- 5.7
- 36.0
- 65.4
- 49.4
- 47.3
- 498.6
20-29
-134.5
-100.4
- 29.4
-208.6
-139.4
- 67.4
- 85.4
-124.0
-140.3
-122.2
-128.5
-1280.1
30-39
- 40.7
- 37.7
- 5.2
- 87.1
- 53.3
- 19.4
- 30.0
- 34.7
- 55.5
- 43.9
- 37.5
- 445.0
40-49
- 4.8
- 15.5
.6
- 45.4
- 24.8
- 4.5
- 11.0
- 4.1
- 21.3
- 20.0
- 10.4
- 161.2
50-59
- 6.6
- 17.6
- 1.9
- 18.6
- 14.2
- 9.7
- 7.8
- 5.0
- 20.6
- .2
- 8.8
- 111.0
60-69
- 5.2
- 12.6
- 1.8
- 21.7
- 9.7
- 5.7
- 7.1
- 8.3
- 6.2
- 9.6
- 5.8
- 93.7
70-up
- 5.5
- 9.2
- 2.9
- 13.4
- 6.8
- 5.5
- 8.3
- 5.6
- 7.3
- 6.8
- 6.7
- 78.0
All
-281.8
-257.9
- 51.0
-564.5
-363.1
-138.7
-170.4
-244.4
-352.9
-286.7
-262.5
-2973.9
Rural Non-Farm
and Urban
0-9
- 3.6
5 2
23.2
13.2
8.1
13 0
7.4
10.3
38.8
6.6
3.0
1.7
3.4
2.8
74.0
20.5
50.6
106.3
30.0
19.5
10.8
3.9
3.3
244.9
10.4
41.6
41.6
- 1.9
6.8
3.9
5.3
1.9
109.6
5.8
32.8
69.2
19.4
6.0
11.4
1.8
1.7
148.1
- 6.5
4.0
34.0
- 15.9
- 5.1
- 2.1
1.9
2.6
12.9
96.7
345.9
690.2
139.8
110.9
69.5
52.3
42.2
1547.5
10-19
18.7
9 9
71.5
50.2
27 A
'28.'9
63.4
16.0
7.6
_ 9
20-29
68.9
29.3
106.6
78.1
54 '0
30-39
3.8
3.2
70.3
— 6^6
14.9
40-49
3.3
12.3
46.6
1.5
9^4
50-59
0.0
9
26.7
10.S
6^6
60-69
2 3
2 4
19.2
3.7
4^3
4T
4.7
136.8
70-up
2.4
2 7
12 0
3 5
4 6
Aii ::::::
95.8
65.9
376.1
154T
129^3
Source: Robin M. Williams, Rural-Urban Migration in the Southeastern Region, 1920-1930 (unpublished paper with estimates
based on figures supplied by Warren S. Thompson and C. Horace Hamilton).
ment outside the area. Of the native born population of the United States
in 1930, 28,700,000 were born in the Southeast, 24,100,000 born in the
rural districts, and 4,600,000 in cities. Since only about 17,500,000 of
these southeastern rural-born live in the area of their birth, it is evident
that over 6,600,000 have moved elsewhere. Of these, 3,800,000 have
left the section entirely, while 2,900,000 have moved to southern cities.
On the other hand 400,000 have come into the region leaving a net loss
of 3,400,000. The rural districts of the Southeast have thus exported
2,900,000 of their natural increase to the region's cities, have sent 3,400,000
to other regions, and have continued to grow.5
Table 28, on the basis of calculations from age-group data made by
Robin Williams, enables us to show these movements in some detail for
1920-1930. The farms of the Southeast lost by net migration some 2,973,-
900 persons and the villages and cities (rural-nonfarm and urban areas)
gained 1,547,500 population. This left a net migration out of the region
of some 1,426,400 people. No State was exempt but the greatest losses
were experienced by the farms of Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky
B Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States, p. 463.
122
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 29. Population Changes by Color, Sex, and Residence, Showing
Change Attributable to Natural Increase and Migration,
Five Tennessee Valley States,* 1920- 1930
Total change
Change attri
Natural increases
nutable to
Net migration
Population group
Number
(1000's)
Percentage of
1920 population
Number
(1000's)
Percentage of
1920 population
Number
(1000's)
Percentage of
1920 population
1,462.5
619.9
666.3
74.6
101.8
12.2
13.7
15.1
5.0
6.6
2,295.8
926.4
931.3
198.1
240.0
19.2
20.5
21.2
13.2
15.5
- 833.3
- 306.5
- 265.1
- 123.5
- 138.2
- 7.0
White Male
- 6.8
- 6.2
- 8.2
— 8.9
940.0
341.7
385.3
89.2
123.7
32.2
33.4
36.4
22.4
28.1
401.3
174.4
162.3
34.5
30.1
13.8
17.1
15.3
8.7
6.9
538.6
167.2
223.0
54.8
93.6
18.5
16.4
21.2
13.8
21.2
Total Rural Non-Farm
White Male
714.0
332.9
343.2
22.6
25.4
27.6
32.8
35.7
7.1
7.9
633.3
269.5
267.3
44.3
52.2
24.5
27.3
27.8
13.9
16.3
80.8
53.4
76.0
- 21.7
- 26.8
3.1
S.4
7.9
- 6.8
— 8.4
Total Rural Farm
White Male
- 191.5
- 44.7
- 62.3
- 37.2
- 47.3
- 3.0
- 1.8
- 2.6
- 4.7
- 6.1
1,261.2
482.4
501.8
119.4
157.6
19.5
19.2
21.1
15.2
19.9
-1,452.7
- 527.1
- 564.1
- 156.6
-22.5
-21.0
—23.7
-19.9
- 205.0 -2S.y
1
•Alabama, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia.
Source: C. Horace Hamilton, "Rural-Urban Migration in the Tennessee Valley between 1920 and 1930, Social Forces, XIII
(October 1934), 57-64.
which lost from 33.5 to 27.8 percent of their 1920 farm population. Missis-
sippi had the smallest losses, 13.4 percent.
Low farm incomes, boll weevil invasions in Georgia and South Caro-
lina, submarginal farming conditions in mountain areas of Kentucky and
Tennessee, and the high rate of rural births everywhere help to explain
these losses. Nonfarm areas showed gains in every southern State.
Detailed figures (Table 28) indicate that the great bulk of the migra-
tion in each category was in the young ages. Of the 2,973,900 net migrants
from farms, 1,280,000 were aged 20 to 29. Migrants 10 to 30 years of
age composed 67 percent of the net movement to the region's cities, 59.8
percent of the movement from the region's farms and 52.7 percent of the
net movement out of the region.
A detailed analysis, by C. Horace Hamilton, of the Tennessee Valley
area (Table 29) gave migration by sex and race and distinguished changes
by natural increase and migration in farm, rural-nonfarm, and urban areas.
Thus the farms lost 22.5 percent of their 1920 population by migration
but, since they gained 19.5 percent by natural increase, the net loss was
MOVING ACROSS THE MAP 123
only 3 percent. To a migration gain of 18.5 percent the cities added 13.8
percent in natural increase to gain 32.3 percent. A net migration out of
the region of 7 percent was offset by a natural increase of 19.2 percent
to give the area a 12.2 percent gain.
For both races the migration of females from farms to cities within
the area was greater than the migration of males. In migration out of
the area males led among whites and females among colored groups. Whites
led in the proportion migrating to cities in the area while Negroes led
in the proportions migrating outside the area. The rural nonfarm areas,
small towns for the most part, gained white migrants but lost colored
migrants.
The decade of the 1920's resembled nothing so much as the opening
of a great safety valve whereby the pent-up pressure of the South's popu-
lation could seek economic release from a crowded agriculture. In the
next chapter we raise the question of the future of migration. What did
the decade of the 1930's mean? What will the decade of World War II
mean for future migration from the South?
CHAPTER IO
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION
The South 's contribution to future migration in this country is likely to
be very large indeed. It is not difficult to show that the region's need
is great and that the Southern people are accustomed to moving in search
of opportunity. It is evident that the decade from 1920 to 1930, when
agricultural depression and industrial prosperity coincided, was the greatest
period of rural-urban migration yet known. The decade did not relieve
rural areas of their poverty ; in fact it did not prove that migration alone
could perform this service. It did, however, set a mark at which all future
rural-urban migration might aim.
Many considerations must be taken into account in estimating the future
trend of southern migration. It depends upon the back log of delayed
migration accumulated during the depression and upon changing economic
conditions in both agriculture and industry. Separate sections are devoted
to the relation of population to the agrarian and industrial economies but
throughout our discussion the contrast between the periods of the depres-
sion decade, of World War II, and of the post-war period must be held
in mind.
INTERSTATE MIGRATION, I93O-I94O
The decade 1930 to 1940 served to reverse the trends of internal mi-
gration for all regions except the Far West which continued to gain. The
reduction of regional changes in population to their constituent elements
of natural increase and migration (Table 30) indicates that the Far West
was the only region to show an appreciable gain by migration, 15.4 per-
cent. Over 1,279,500 went to the Far West in this decade. As Table
30 shows, the gains of all other regions were- due to excess of births over
deaths.
The Southeast's census gain of 2,710,931 was the Nation's largest,
making up over 30 percent of the total increase in population. The region
led the Nation in the rate of natural increase, 12.3 percent. Unlike the
[124]
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 125
Table 30. Total Population Change Due to Natural Increase and
Migration, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1940
Amount Change, 1930-1940
Percent Change, 1930-1940
Area
Net
Due to
natural increase
Due to
migration
Net
Due to
natural increase
Due to
migration
United States
8,894,229
1,940,298
2,710,931
702,692
1,780,130
25,938
1,558,018
8,940,747
1,739,797
3,136,723
1,002,556
2,057,843
698,594
278,438
- 46,518
200,501
-425,792
-299,864
-277,713
-672,656
1,279,580
7.24
5.1
10.6
7.7
5.2
0.4
18.8
7.28
4.6
12.3
11.0
6.0
9.5
3.4
—0.04
0.5
Southwest
—1.7
Middle States
—3.3
Northwest
—0.8
Far West
—9.1
15.4
isj,,;„ „,i r> W • V> -—"-.•" vr'^r':" \X"."""' *'-'"> *"= Jrruuicms oi a \_nanging ropuiatioi
Krthf TT?£T£ . ^FoTd"!6' Potula!ton Statistics, National Data, Tables 28, 32; Ellen Hull Ndf, Under-registration of
North icYroHna 19«)' ' Reg'°na1, Race and Rural"Urban Differences (unpublished master's thesis, UniversityZof
Figure 84. Percentage Change in Total Population Due to
Migration, United States, 1930- 1940
Source: See Table 30.
previous decade, however, there was little migration from the Southeast,
only 1.7 percent. With natural increase estimated at 3,136,723 for the
decade most of the population was confined at home by the depression.
With due allowance for underregistration of births we estimate less than
426,000 left the area during the depression decade.
Figure 84 shows the net balance of interstate migration as calculated
I26 ALL THESE PEOPLE
by the vital statistics method.1 In all, 19 States gained migrants and 29
States lost. The Dakotas lost the largest proportions, over 1 8 percent of
their population ; Florida gained the largest by migration, 22.2 percent.
Seventeen States, however, showed changes of less than 2 percent by
migration.
An examination of the Southeast brings to light an important contrast
in racial migration. The net migration out of the Southeast was due to
the continued movement of the Negroes ; the white population remained
at home. By net migration the region lost 868* white and 4^4>924 colored
population (Table 31). The Southeast lost 5.4 percent of its Negroes by
migration ranging from South Carolina's loss of 11.7 percent to Louisiana's
loss of 1.4 percent (Figure 85). Only Tennessee, 3.5 percent, and Florida,
14.3 percent, gained Negro population by migration. In round numbers
Georgia lost over 100,700, South Carolina over 92,500, Alabama over
75,000, Mississippi over 71,600, and North Carolina 67,800.
Of this migration 201,678 Negroes went to the Northeast, almost
150,000 to New York; and 151,629 to the Middle States, 59,000 landing
in Illinois, and 28,000 in Michigan (Table 31). Both the Northeast and
Table 31. Population Change Due to Migration, by Race, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940
Area
Total
White
Colored
Area
Total
White
Colored
- 46,518
200,501
801
9,496
- 18,152
- 70,791
- 2,059
37,783
469,902
- 16,178
-286,521
17,826
121,244
(149,426)
- 62,850
-425,792
22,820
- 82,785
- 83,012
-129,151
325,977
- 81,719
12,164
-181,282
- 99,785
-155,096
26,077
-299,864
-329,690
- 22,180
32,111
19,895
- 14,252
- 1,177
510
9,891
- 17,938
- 72,389
- 2,809
35,667
320,108
- 24,135
-311,941
15,113
106,089
(98,006)
- 59,343
868
57,204
- 14,965
9,531
- 28,461
263,972
- 77,884
- 4,433
-106,248
- 28,171
-108,364
36,951
-278,465
-280,302
- 37,150
28,469
! 10,518
- 32,266
201,678
291
395
- 214
1,598
750
2,116
149,794
7,957
25,420
2,713
15,155
(51,420)
- 3,507
-424,924
- 34,384
- 67,820
- 92,543
-100,690
62,005
- 3,835
16,597
- 75,034
- 71,614
- 46,732
- 10,874
- 21,399
- 49,388
14,970
3,642
9,377
Middle States
-277,713
- 68,717
15,050
- 49,297
36
- 40,800
404
-109,250
- 24,259
-672,656
-128,598
-125,998
-182,787
-205,945
- 25,473
20,053
- 170
14,487
- 38,225
1,279,580
16,273
105,461
97,893
1,059,953
-429,342
- 96,698
4,623
-108,363
- 28,234
- 41,198
- 486
-108,925
- 50,061
-662,870
-128,034
-123,817
-182,537
-203,776
- 23,672
20,978
450
14,984
- 37,446
1,260,464
16,391
110,720
99,340
1,034,013
151,629
27,981
Indiana
Illinois
10,427
59,066
28,198
New Hampshire
398
82
325
25,802
New York
- 9,786
564
- 2,181
250
- 2,169
Dist. of Columbia . .
- 1,801
- 925
- 620
497
Utah
- 779
19,116
118
Washington
- S.259
- 1,447
25,940
1
Source: See Table 30.
1 Net migration computed as difference between total change of population and change due to balauce
of births and deaths during decade.
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 127
Figure 85. Percentage Change in Colored Population Due to
Migration, United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: See Table 30.
Figure 86. Percentage Change in White Population Due to
Migration, United States, 1930- 1940
Source: See Table 30.
128
ALL THESE PEOPLE
the Middle States increased their colored population over 12 percent. The
5.7 percent gain of the Far West included other colored population besides
the Negro. Change of white population in the Southeast ranged from a
loss of 7.9 percent by migration from Arkansas to gains of 1. 1 percent in
South Carolina, 2.8 percent in Louisiana, 3.2 percent in Virginia, and 25.5
percent for Florida (Figure 86). Together the 7 Southern States on
the debit side lost a total of 368,500 white people. Some of these no
doubt went to other Southern States.
RECENT TRENDS
Table 30 shows actual changes by regions. Shifting trends in births
and migration can be shown by a comparison of these actual changes with
the changes estimated by Thompson and Whelpton (Table 32) under the
assumption of no migration and of migration continued as of 1920-1930.
The pattern of interstate migration prevailing during the 1920's did not
carry over to 1 940. The only region for which the "prediction" of migra-
tion proved close was the Far West with an actual gain estimated at 1,280,-
000 compared with an assumed gain of 1,087,000. Where the Northeast
was assumed to gain 912,000, it gained only 201, OOO j where the Middle
States were assumed to gain 318,000 by migration, they lost an estimated
278,000. The Southeast, which could have expected to lose 1,706,000,
Table 32. Actual Change in Population and Estimated Change Under
Two Assumptions, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930-1940
(Population in Thousands)
Item and assumption
Population 1930. .
Population 1930*.
Population 1940
actual.
est: no migration. . .
est: with migration.
Total Change (1930-1940)
actual
est: no migration
est: with migration
Natural Increase (1930-1940)
Estimate of actual
est: no migration
est: with migration
Gain or Loss Through
Migration (1930-1940)
Estimate of actual ....
est: no migration
est: with migration. . .
United
States
122,775
123,233
131,669
132,098
131,865
8,894
8,865
8,632
8,941
8,865
8,632
- 47
0
0
North-
east
38,026
38,153
39,966
39,853
40,754
1,940
1,700
2,601
1,740
1,700
1,689
201
0
912
South-
east
25,551
25,670
28,262
28,908
27,069
2,711
3,238
1,399
3,137
3,238
3,105
- 426
0
-1,706
South-
west
9,080
9,118
9,782
10,278
10,068
703
,160
950
1,003
1,160
1,139
- 300
0
- 189
Middle
States
33,961
34,077
35,742
35,940
36,215
1,780
1,863
2,138
2,058
1,863
1,820
- 278
0
318
North-
west
7,385
7,412
7,410
8,137
7,656
26
725
244
699
725
692
- 673
0
- 448
Far
West
Dist. of
Columbia
8,285
8,312
9,844
8,500
9,586
1,558
188
1,274
278
188
187
1,280
0
1,087
487
488
663
488
513
174
0
25
27
0
0
149
0
25
•Population as enumerated on April 1, 1930 corrected by adding an allowance of 4 percent for underenumeration of children
under 5 Since the forecasts of Thompson and Whelpton are based on this corrected figure, it has been used in computing
changes in population predicted by them, while "actual" changes were computed on the basis of census enumeration in 1930
and 1940. Some discrepancies in the last digits of totals are due to the rounding of figures in thousands.
Source: Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Estimates of Future Population by States, (National Resources Board, Decem-
ber, 1934, mimeographed).
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 129
lost only 426,000. The drought increased the migration losses of the North-
west from an estimated 448,000 to 673,000.
Equally significant were the regional contrasts shown in estimated
natural increase (Table 32). The reversal of declining fertility that set
in with returning prosperity and the threat of war gave greater gains in
natural increase than were assumed. The high fertility areas, the North-
west, Southwest, and Southeast, showed a somewhat greater decline in
natural increase than assumed in the Thompson- Whelpton estimates. With-
out migration the Southeast was expected to show a natural increase of
3,238,000. While but little migration occurred, actual natural increase
was only 3,137,000. In the Southwest the actual natural increase of
1,003,000 fell below assumed increase. In the Far West the change from
assumed to actual natural increase was from 188,000 to 278,000.
We may help to account for these changes by examining the assump-
tions underlying the Thompson- Whelpton estimates. Thompson and
Whelpton assumed that in the Nation as a whole the birth rate by five-
year age periods would drop about 30 percent from 1930 to i960 and that
by i960 "the difference between the United States birth rate and that for
the urban and rural population of each State would be only one-half as
great as in 1930." Two trends seem evident from the 1940 figures: (1)
in States of low fertility the birth rate did not drop at the rate assumed j
(2) in States of high fertility births fell at a higher rate. In the field of
migration, our especial interest, the assumption of no migration, came
nearest fitting conditions in the Southeast, 1 930-1 940.
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATIONS
In order to compare depression migration from southern farms to towns
and cities2 with that prevailing during the 1920's we can make use of the
Department of Agriculture's annual estimates for the census South, an
area that includes Texas, Oklahoma, and certain border States. Figures 87
and 88 contrasting the Nation and the South indicate the greater number
of births on southern farms and the great amount of urbanward migration
necessary to hold the South's farm population at a stable level in a period
of declining agriculture. From 1920 to 1941 annual births in southern
farm areas have fallen from around 500,000 to 431,000. For the rest
of the Nation farm births which never went above 333,000 have fallen to
271,000. On southern farms deaths have not climbed beyond 190,000,
giving the farm population an annual natural increase that gradually fell
from around 350,000 to 280,000. For the rest of the Nation, natural
increase on the farm has fallen from around 1 90,000 to about 1 50 000.
2 The 1940 age sex composition of the rural farm, rural nonfarm, and urban population was not
available at time of writing. Accordingly, no use has been made of the age group data in calculating
1940 migration.
130
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 87. Annual Change in the Farm Population as Affected by
Births, Deaths, and Migration, Census South, 1920-1941
Source: Identical with Figure 88.
Figure 88. Annual Change in the Farm Population as Affected by
Births, Deaths, and Migration, United States without
the Census South, 1920-1941
THOUSANDS
600
"-,920 1925 1930 1935 1940
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Annual Estimates
of the Farm Population, Births, Deaths ... and Number of Persons Moving to and from Farms (By
Census Division), January I, 1937; January 1, 1938; Revised September, 1942.
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 131
In the function that migration serves, the contrast between the logo's
and the 1930's is startling. In the period 1 920-1 930 a net movement of
over 3 3/4 millions from southern farms meant a net loss of only 637,000
farm population. In the 1930's southern farms lost 2 1/4 millions by
migration but gained over 1/3 million population. For only one year in
these two decades, and that only in the depth of the depression, 1932, did
the tide of net migration flow back to the southern farms. Yet so great
was natural increase that the farms actually lost population only when out-
migration exceeded 250,000, during 13 of the 22 years, 1 920-1 941. Farms
elsewhere lost population for 18 out of the 22 years, an outward move-
ment of 137,000 accounting for net loss in one of the years. These esti-
mates can be related to net farm migration by States from 1930 to 1940.
Later estimates of the Department of Agriculture based on survival
rates showed that the Nation's rural farm population had a net loss during
the decade 1930-40 of 2-5 million persons by migration.3 This loss of
12.7 percent of the 1930 population on farms just about offsets their excess
of births over deaths so that the group increased only 0.2 percent during
the decade. The greater tendency of women and non-whites to migrate is
demonstrated in the farm's net loss of 22.4 percent non-white females,
and 17 percent non- white males as compared to losses of 14 percent white
females and 9 percent white males. For all classes the greatest migration
occurred among those aged 15-20 in 1930, the least among those aged
30-45. By States farm migration ranged from a net gain of 30 percent in
Connecticut to a 31.8 percent loss in South Dakota (Figure 89). In
regional terms only the Far West gained farm population while all other
regions lost. Because of the movement to New England farms the losses
of the Northeast were comparatively low. With a loss of 650 thousand
the Northwest showed the highest proportionate losses but was second in
total losses to the Southeast which was over 1,624 thousands.
Other figures can be carried through from the 1940 Census to the
close of 1 943 to show the effect of war on population movements. Census
estimates, based on registration for War Ration Book Four November 1943,
indicate that induction into the armed forces so exceeded natural increase
that the total civilian population lost 4 millions or 3.1 percent.4 These
estimates are valuable for they suggest the trend of future migration. On
the one hand they show (Figure 90) the extent to which rural areas
have been drained. On the other they indicate the war centers which have
attracted civilian population. In all there were 2,620 counties which lost
3 Eleanor H. Bernert, Volume and Composition of Net Migration from the Rural Farm Population.
(Washington, D. C: U. S. Department of Agriculture, January, 1944, mimeographed), pp. 6-7 for
Method, pp. 8-37 for Tabulations.
4 Bureau of the Census, Special Reports, Series P-44, No. 3, February 15, 1944.
132
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 89. Net Migration from the Rural Farm Population,
United States, 1 930-1 940
an
Source: See footnote 3, this chapter.
Figure 90. Estimated Percentage Change in the Civilian Population
by Counties, United States, April i, 1940 to November i, 1943
Source: Bureau of the Census, United States Department of Commerce, Release P-44> No. 3 and No. 6,
February 15 and March 23, 1944-
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 133
civilian population, amounting to more than 8,879,000. While these
counties were largely rural they included 92 metropolitan counties in 50
out of the 137 metropolitan areas. Together all metropolitan areas gained
2.2 percent. Among regions only the Far West gained in civilian popu-
lation while the Northwest continued the losses of the 1930 decade. By
States California gained over a million population while New York lost
over a million. Of the 12 States to show gains the Southeast had 2, Florida
and Virginia. In all, 469 counties gained civilian population, amounting to
almost 4,858,000. Because of the location of camps and industries in the
region only 7 of the 29 metropolitan areas in the Southeast lost popula-
tion. The greatest gains were experienced in seaport and shipbuilding
areas. Savannah grew 29 percent, Charleston 37 percent, Norfolk 57
percent and Mobile 61 percent. Thus the immediate post-war problem
is the back flow of migration from boom towns to rural areas but once
this is accomplished the long pull will witness the resumption of rural
urban migration.
INCREASES IN THE FARM POPULATION OF WORKING AGE, 1 8 TO 65
The conditions of 1 930-1 940 came nearer to stopping internal migra-
tion than any recent decade. The rise of war industries in the 1940's tended
to repeat the migration experience of 1920-1930. On the basis of current
trends in births and deaths it can be shown that without migration the farm
population in the Southeast would grow from 12,236,000 in 1930 to
19,960,000 by i960, an increase of over 7,700,000 people. With migra-
tion continued as in the period 1920 to 1930 the farms of the Southeast
would find their population declining from 12 millions to 11.6 millions.5
Figure 91, which shows the change from 1920 to i960 under this assump-
tion, indicates that urban population would grow from 7.6 million in
1930 to 9.6 million in i960 while rural nonfarm would increase from
5.8 to almost 8 millions.
In order to avoid assumptions about what will happen to the birth
rate, T. J. Woofter, Jr. has calculated the additions that would be made
to our labor force, those aged 18-65 to 1950.6 This potential working
population 18-65 was increasing at the rate of over a million a year.
Seven-tenths of these new workers came from rural families. Allowing
for deaths, and for those reaching the retirement age of 6s, the United
States would have by 1950, 5.6 million more urban, 7.3 million more
rural farm, and 4.1 million more rural nonfarm people of working age
than in 1930.
E These figures are based on W. S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Estimates of Future Population
by Stales (Washington, D. C: Government Printing Office, 1934).
""The Future Working Population," Rural Sociology, IV (September, 1939), 275-282.
134
ALL THESE PEOPLE
FIGURE 91. PROJECTED TREND OF
POPULATION BY RESIDENCE WITH
MIGRATION AS OF 1920-1930,
SOUTHEAST, I 920- 1 960
Source: Warren S. Thompson and P.
K. Whelpton, Estimates of Future Pop-
ulation by Stales, National Resources
Board, 1934..
The pressure that replacements in the farm population exercise on
migration is shown by Woofter's analysis of 1930 data. The annual rate
of replacement of males in the farm population was 2.4 for the United
States. This replacement rate is the relation between the number of males
becoming 1 8 each year and those 1 8-64 years of age inclusive. From the
1930 farm population figures the rate is calculated as follows: From the
number of farm males 18 years old — 363,793 — is subtracted those be-
coming 6$ years of age and the number dying that year aged 19-64 years
old — 162,390 in all. The result — an excess maturity of 201,403 — is then
computed as a percentage of the farm males 18-64 — 8,263,405 — to secure
the annual replacement rate — 2.4 percent.
The replacement rate is thus a measure of pressure on economic oppor-
tunity, the pressure of farm youth on the land. Figure 92 ranks the states
in this respect and shows that 6 states of the Southern Regions had over
300 farm youths for every 10,000 farm males 18-64. Even in the
Dakotas before the droughts there were more than twice as many farm
youths becoming 18 as could possibly be absorbed by the economic oppor-
tunities open through death and old age on farms.7 Of the Nation's
additional 7 1/3 million rural farm population 18-65 if was found that
7 Bruce L. Melvin and Elna N. Smith, Rural Youth: Their Situation and Prospects (W. P. A.,
Division of Social Research, Washington, D. C, 1938), pp. 12-13.
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION
135
Figure 92. Male Replacement Rate per 10,000 in the Rural Farm
Population, 18-64 Years of Age, United States, 1930
Source: T. J. Woofter, Jr., "The Future Working Population," Rural Sociology, IV (September, 1939),
275-282 j T. J. Woofter, Jr., "Replacement Rates in the Productive Ages," Milbank Memorial Fund
Quarterly, XV (October, 1937), pp. 348-354.
over 3,200,000 would be found in the Southeast unless migration draws
them away. These people, it must be realized, were already born and
the only thing that would keep them from maturing into productive
population, working or seeking work, was an increase in the death rate.
They furnish the oncoming manpower for agriculture, for war industry,
and for the armed forces.
In the Nation, total population aged 18-65 would grow from 73 mil-
lion to almost 91 million by 1950. The extent to which they migrate
will depend on the total amount of unemployment in the Nation in the
post-war decade. If 1930 conditions of employment should prevail, appoxi-
mately only 2.9 percent of that group will thus be unemployed. But if
conditions uncovered by the Special Unemployment Census of 1937 pre-
vail, 12.2 percent will be unemployed and looking for work. (Figure
93). The difference amounts to 8 1/2 million more unemployed. By
now we know that one effect of loss of jobs is to force other members
of the family to look for work, thus increasing the unemployed. If 1930
conditions should prevail in 1950, 35.6 million of those 18-65 wi^ not
seek gainful employment. Should the conditions of 1937 prevail, how-
136
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 93. Employment Status of Population, 18-64 Years of Age Under
Conditions of 1930 and 1937, United States, 1940,
with Estimate for 1950
PATTERN OF 1930
PATTERN
OF 1957
40 50 60
POPULATION (MILLIONS)
100
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Vol. II, Chap. 10, Tables 9, 21, 24, 27. Census of
Unemployment, 1930, Vol. I; Census of Unemployment, 1937, Vol. IV, Enumerative Check Census;
Warren Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Estimates of Future Population by States, National Resource*
Board, 1934.
Table 33. Reasons for Leaving Settled Residence Given by Migrant
Families, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1935
All families inquired
Economic distress
Personal distress
Region of former
settled residence
Number
Percent
Unemply-
ment
(Percent)
Inadequate
earnings
(Percent)
Farm
failure
(Percent)
111
health
(Percent)
Domestic
and other
trouble
(Percent)
Not in
distress
(Percent)
United States ....
4,195
695
922
594
1,000
629
355
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
40
44
42
40
42
32
40
20
20
25
20
20
18
17
8
2
6
9
6
22
1
11
12
7
14
10
12
11
15
15
15
12
16
10
24
6
7
5
S
Middle States
Northwest
6
6
7
Note: Percentages in Italics are those higher for a given region than for all other regions. The Middle States follow very
closely the United States pattern and do not rank first for any factor of emigration. Factor headed "Inadequate earnings is
mostly low wages, part-time work, but includes also insufficient relief, pressing debts, eviction from homes, etc. "Domestic
and other trouble" includes divorce, family quarrels, dislike of community, and other personal maladjustments. The group
"not in distress" did not suffer from any economic hardship or any pressing personal distress
Source: Migrant Families, Works Progress Administration, Division of Social Research. 1938, Appendix, Table 2.
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 137
ever, only 31.3 million will not be seeking employment. Thus 4.3 mil-
lion more will be added to the labor market because of unemployment.
The bearing of these trends on future migration should be evident
when we examine the reasons given for migration. Table 33 indicates that
for all regions unemployment is the major reason migrants give for leav-
ing their homes. Interestingly enough the people from the Southeast
ranked highest among those giving inadequate income as the reason for
migration, the Northwest leads in farm failure, while 24 percent of those
from California and the Far West had no more serious reason for leaving
home than domestic troubles.
MIGRATION AND THE ECONOMIC FUTURE
What influence is the economic future likely to exert on migration?
No one knows but we may gain some idea by describing the condition that
prevailed during the depression in contrast with the conditions of World
War II. For some time to come, the source of southern migrants will
be the farms; the only question is whether they will move to industrial
areas within or outside the region. We know that the Southeast has two
great problem areas in the old Cotton Belt and its Appalachian Moun-
tains. The South can grow cotton and lots of it for a price and a market.
The market in the 1930's was vanishing before our eyes, and cotton prices
were held up only by the support of governmental operations. In 1937
the Nation grew 18 1/4 million bales, sold 5 2/3 million abroad, con-
sumed 53/4 million, and had a carry over of 11 1/2 million bales. In
1939 by heroic efforts we reduced production to 11 2/3 million bales, sold
only 31/3 million, used 6 4/5 million, and carried over 13 million bales.
The region seemed fated to reduce production to an annual take of 9
million bales, or worse, to the domestic consumption of less than 7 million
bales. It had reduced cotton production to 9 2/3 million bales in 1934-
1935 and in spite of government subsidies, it nearly killed the southern
farmer. Those who would estimate future migration out of the Cotton
Belt will have to tell us what policies the government will adopt toward
the cotton problem, what chance cotton will have in the world market, what
other paying crops the South can grow, and what other methods of using
the land the region could employ besides cotton tenancy and sharecropping.
The war and its probable outcome have already made the question loom
larger and more complex than the old familiar problem of recovering
foreign markets. The region is faced with the long-time problem of
reconstructing an outmoded cotton economy. Unless we make some prog-
ress toward agricultural reconstruction, the post-war pressure toward migra-
tion will be great indeed. Drastic reduction of cotton production would,
no doubt, force new displacements of population but the government's pro-
138 ALL THESE PEOPLE
gram of carrying the crop on loans could hardly be justified without further
reduction in quotas.
The problem of the Southern Appalachians resulted from the pressure
of the Nation's fastest growing population upon diminishing resources of
timber lands, coal mining, and limited farm lands. The areas at current
birth and death rates will double their population every thirty years with-
out migration. Migration was greatly needed, for there was no additional
land supply that would not quickly erode if put to the plow. Regrowing
timber was a long time job not likely to offer early returns for the present
generation except in government employment for conservation. Only the
bituminous coal mines of Kentucky could produce more than they were
then producing. Here is a problem of markets which war activity bade fair
to increase. Such were the forces back of migration previous to December
7, 1941.
THE FORCES BEHIND SOUTHERN MIGRATION
The preceding discussion indicates the strength of forces behind normal
outward migration from the Southeast. They show what serious effects the
reversal or stoppage of the rural-urban flow would have in an area where
farms are already too small and too much given over to erosion and tenancy.
The total force of migration has not been interregional, for our figures have
presented migration to towns and cities in the region as well as outside.
They are valuable in indicating how impossible it will be to stop the rural-
urban drift in the Southeast as long as its high birth rate continues. There
is not sufficient demand for farm products nor sufficient land, good, poor,
and indifferent, to provide for the farm surplus if migration were cut off.
Certainly our regional figures cast doubt on the ability of southern cities
to absorb all the population increase on southern farms.
Migration is not only a constitutional right of every American citizen
recently reaffirmed by the decision of the Supreme Court in the Edwards
Case; it is an economic necessity in the American system. The country is
an economic unit with a predominantly national market. Industries, in-
vestments, goods, and labor respond to this economic and legal fact by
crossing State lines at will. Such movements are necessary to develop,
maintain, and stabilize the national economy. The economic order is a
continually adjusting and readjusting equilibrium which presupposes a flow
of industries to resources, a flow of goods to markets, and a flow of workers
to industries. The causes of migration are, therefore, so fundamental and
pervasive as to leave little expectation that the population may be immo-
bilized.
As new areas develop and old ones decline, workers must migrate in
order to develop the new resources and to relieve the older communities of
THE TREND OF SOUTHERN MIGRATION 139
surplus workers. The "push" of stranded communities resulting from shift-
ing work opportunities are accentuated by the "pull" of new developments
in industry. After employment has shifted from one area or one type of
industry to another, migration gives rise to fewer problems than would the
continuance of stranded communities as the result of insufficient migration.
Population increase is slowing down, but migration retains its import-
ance. Without great migratory movements we cannot equalize our unequal
flow of population increase, redress our regional inequalities, balance the
demand for labor between changing employment capacities, nor "use our
human and material resources to the best advantage." It was by large
migrations that the frontier was settled ; by foreign immigration that the
American labor supply was recruited ; and it is mainly by spontaneous in-
ternal migrations that the future needs of population redistribution in the
United States must be served. Migration is no cure-all but, vagrancy
laws to the contrary, the fact that a man has little or no money in his pocket
is no valid reason for depriving him of his right to take up settlement across
State lines. The right to move may seem a poor substitute for real security,
but it must not be forgotten that for many of our citizens it has proved the
road to increased well-being.
CHAPTER II
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION
Occupational distribution is one of the main phases of population study,
bearing as it does a major relationship to class differences in fertility, to
rural-urban residence, and to migration. Furthermore, population pres-
sure, wherever it exists, is likely to be evident in an unbalanced occupational
distribution accompanied by low incomes for the crowded trades and callings.
OCCUPATIONAL STATUS
The occupational distribution of our regional populations may well
be considered against the background of our dominant economies. For con-
venience we shall begin with the simple division of our economies into
two : the agrarian and industrial, preliminary to a discussion of those auxil-
iary groups concerned with distribution and the services and finally to the
classification of occupations by socio-economic status. Figure 94 makes use
of two comparisons, ( 1 ) the comparison of the region's share of the Nation's
wage earners in manufacturing with its share of farm operators, and (2)
the comparison of its proportion of the total population with its share of
the Nation's land area. The chart thus indicates that three regions, North-
east, Middle States, and Far West, are characteristically industrial, while
the Southeast, Southwest, and Northwest are agrarian. Three regions,
Northeast, Middle States, and significantly enough the Southeast, have a
density pattern more characteristic of urbanism, namely the excess of popu-
lation over land area, while the three western areas show characteristic
sparsity of total settlement.
Outstanding is the concentration in the three eastern areas. The North-
east emerges as the predominant industrial area with 43.6 percent of the
Nation's wage earners to only 10.4 percent of the country's farm operators
and 6.8 percent of the land area. It is followed by the Middle States, well
balanced with 32 percent of the nation's wage earners and 27.4 percent of
its farmers. Thus the Northwest with 1.5 percent wage earners to 9.9
[ 140]
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 141
Figure 94. The Percentage Distribution of the Nation's Population and
Land Area, Wage Earners in Manufacturing and Farm Operators,
the Six Major Regions of the United States, 1940
FARM OPERATORS
RURAL PATTERN
WASE EARNERS
FARM OPERATORS
40
30
20
m
1
NORTHEAST
MIDDLE STATES
SOUTHEAST =
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
FAR WEST
10 0 0
PERCENT
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Tables 2, 6, 630 and 868.
percent farm operators emerges as more agrarian than the Southeast, which
has 15.3 percent of all wage earners and 37 percent of the farmers. Actu-
ally the Southeast, partly because of the density of its agricultural popula-
tion, has the third highest proportion of population to land area.
From this basic relation of agricultural and industrial workers we pro-
ceed to consideration of the occupational range. While some work has been
done on the topic it has proved extremely difficult to estimate the ratio of
workers needed in distributive, service and auxiliary occupations to supply
and serve the major sectors of our economy. It is agreed, however, that
larger numbers of service workers are needed by 1,000 workers in industry
than by 1,000 in agriculture, due partly to the higher returns received by
workers in manufacturing. This conclusion receives some support from
the occupational statistics of regions. Thus in 1940 the Northeast with
the highest proportions in manufacturing and mechanical occupations, 38.9
percent, was second only to the Far West in the proportion in distribution
and services, 52.9 to 59.5 percent (Figure 95). The Southeast, however,
ALL THESE PEOPLE
ji2 ALL inMiL ri^ui^^
Figure 05 The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Three
Mat™ Groups. United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Major Groups, United
FAR WEST
S EXTRACTIVE
MANUFACTURING 8 MECHANICAL
DISTRIBUTIVE 8 SERVICE
50
PERCENT
Source
0 10 20 30
: Sixteenth Census of the United States, ,940, Preliminary Release, Series P-II.
fell below its proportionate share of the services for, with 23.4 percent
in the industrial sector, it had only 40.1 percent in the service group, falling
below two regions that it outranked in industry, the Northwest and the
Southwest. Here we have a definite suggestion of a regional maladjust-
ment in occupational distribution. _ , .
Occupational distribution can well be examined in terms of Alba M.
Edwards' arrangement of census occupations into socio-economic classes in
terms of the income status and social prestige.1 Figure 96, which gives
total occupied population for all regions in 1940, clearly shows the pre-
dominance of farm workers including unpaid family labor in the South-
east as compared with the Nation and the more industrialized regions Es-
pecially notable is the region's shortage of professional, clerical, and skilled
classes as compared with the Northeast, Middle States, and the Far West.
The Southeast's 789,937 domestic servants account for the regions only
predominance in the nonfarm occupations. Figure 97 shows, by comparison
with the Nation, that female workers in the Southeast exhibit the same
occupational maldistribution shown by males. More females are found
»«A Social-Economic Grouping of the Gainful Workers in the United States" (Washington, D. C:
Government Printing Office, 1938).
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 143
Figure 96. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-
Economic Groups, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Source: See Figure 93.
40 60
PERCENT
100
in agriculture in the region as compared with those in the Nation and fewer
in professional, proprietor, and clerical positions.
Figure 98 compares the Southeast and the Nation in terms of race in
1930. For the white group the Nation has a clear predominance over the
Southeast in the proportion in all classes except farm owners, tenants, and
laborers. Figure 98 also serves to show the extent to which the South-
east's low ranking is due to the large proportion of its Negroes in the serv-
ant, unskilled, farm labor, and tenant groups. In professional, clerical,
skilled, and semiskilled ranks the Nation's Negroes had a clear lead over
those of the Southeast.
Figure 99 compares the occupational distribution of the sexes by race
H4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 97. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social -
Economic Groups, by Sex, United States and Southeast, 1940
20 10
PERCENT
Source: See Figure 93.
10 20
PERCENT
in 1930. Negro women have only two important occupational opportunities
in the Southeast — domestic service and farm labor. Among the white
group, women are coming to take proportionately more important places
in professional, clerical, and service ranks where they are represented
largely by teachers, sales clerks, and beauty shop operatives.
The occupational distribution of the southern population remains one
■of imbalance — an imbalance that is alleviated but never quite corrected
by a continuous flow of migration and social mobility. That this condition
is appreciably changed by industrialization and its related development
can be shown by a comparison of the fringe State of Virginia with agrarian
Mississippi, representative of the Deep South (Figure ioo). Virginia's
class structure shows a clear predominance in industrial labor, skilled, un-
skilled, and semiskilled that carries on into the upper reaches of clerical,
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 145
Figure 98. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-
Economic Groups, by Race, United States and Southeast, 1930
WHITE
50
30 20
PERCENT
FARM OWNERS
AND
MANAGERS
FARMTENANTS
AND
LABORERS
PROFESSIONAL
AND
PROPRIETORS
CLERKS
SKILLED
SEMI-SKILLED
NON-FARM
LABORERS
SERVANTS
NEGRO
£0 30
PERCENT
Source: "The Problems of a Changing Population," National Resources Committee, May, 1938, pp. 75-76.
Population Statistics, National Data, National Resources Committee, Table 27. Alba M. Edwards, "A
Social-Economic Grouping of the Gainful Workers in the United States," Journal of the American
Statistical Association, December, 1933, pp. 377-387. Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1030,
Population, IV, United States Summary, Table 13.
professional, and proprietor groups. Outside the farm workers in which
she leads, Mississippi's class structure approaches Virginia's only in the
proportion of unskilled labor. Over 75 percent of Virginia's workers were
non-farm in 1940 as compared to 45 percent in Mississippi.
differential replacements by occupational classes
Occupational status and occupational trends thus occupy a key position
in the explanation of population dynamics because they are closely related
to fertility differentials, rural-urban residence, and migration. Differential
reproduction has simply come to mean that in the sphere of western civiliza-
tion those occupational groups with the lowest incomes usually have the
highest replacement rates. Differential reproduction in inverse relation
to income has been shown by many studies to exist in terms of economic
regions, social classes, and by size of community — all related to the average
146
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 99. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-
Economic Groups, by Race and Sex, Southeast, 1930
20 30
PERCENT
Source: See Figure 96. Also Population Statistics, National Data, National Resources Committee,
Table 28.
fertility of occupational classes. A fundamental distinction exists between
urban and farm classes, for the lowest urban occupational group rarely has
average fertility as high as the highest farming class. Thus the Milbank
study of almost 100,000 families returned in the Census of 19 10 found
that the number of children per 100 wives progressively increased down
the occupational scale as follows: professional, 1295 business, 140; skilled
workers, 1795 unskilled workers, 223; farm owners, 2475 farm renters,
2755 farm laborers, 299. 2 No comparable study has been made of the
occupational classes in the South, but the analysis of the region's pattern
of high fertility in Chapter 8 indicates similar conditions.
The influence that differential fertility exerts on the occupational dis-
tribution has been neatly demonstrated for one class — the farmers. We
have seen that the rate of replacements of males 18-64 in the farm popula-
tion in 1930 would give 240 young farmers to replace every 100 farmers
who died or became 6$. In both southern regions, there were over 300
"Frank Notestein in G. H. L. Pitt-Rivers, Problems of Population (London: Allen and Unwin,
i930» P- 9-
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 147
Figure 100. The Percentage Distribution of Gainful Workers by Social-
Economic Groups, Virginia and Mississippi, 1940
VIRGINIA
FARM
OPERATORS a MANAGERS
FARM LABORERS
PROFESSIONAL
PROPRIETORS
CLERKS
SKILLED
SEMI-SKILLED
UN5MLLEO
40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40
PERCENT PERCENT
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-io, No. 9; Series P-il, Nos. 20 and 43.
replacements for every 10,000 farmers; in the Southern Appalachians,
approximately 350. These annual replacement rates ranged from zero or
below in New York, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island to 405 in South
Carolina (Figure 92). It should be pointed out here that if it were
possible to segregate other occupational groups from the census, the
unskilled and semiskilled classes would show replacement trends nearest
to those found in the farm groups.
With a replacement rate far in excess of the normal need for farmers,
the obvious question arises: To what extent is farming an inherited occu-
pational status? Certainly there exists the tendency toward the social
inheritance of class and occupational status, a tendency that for many reasons
proves especially strong in an agrarian society like that of the Southeast.
For one thing farmers comprise a distinctive locality group and the change
to alternative employments, so common in the urban environment, involves
an initial move of the farmer's son to town or city. Equally important in a
period characterized by almost complete abandonment of the family appren-
ticeship system is the fact that the farmer's son still learns his "trade"
on the home farm. On the other side of the ledger is the fact that poorer
schooling in rural areas leaves the farmer's children with less knowledge
of alternative opportunities and less capable of competing for them. In
opposition to this view, it may be pointed out that our society has been
148 ALL THESE PEOPLE
characterized by a high rate of mobility, especially apparent in our discus-
sion of large rural-urban migration. In our culture the urge to rise from
low to high-paid occupational status operates as a strong incentive to
which dwellers in southern mountains and tenant farmers respond in vary-
ing degrees.
The argument here developed, accordingly, does not imply occupa-
tional inheritance in our culture; it is in fact designed to show the necessity
for more social mobility than normally exists. America has always been
characterized by a great deal of upgrading, but, as larger numbers have
arrived at middle-class positions by higher education, they attempt to secure
comparable positions for their children. Thus, Davidson and Anderson in
Occupational Mobility in An American City found that more sons entered
the father's occupational level than any other, ranging from 42 percent
among skilled workers to 23 percent for clerical workers. In all classes
from 60 to 73 percent of the sons entered the same or adjacent occupa-
tional levels.3 The chance of general upgrading for populations in the lower
ranks thus depends on equal or greater ability and training and on a gen-
eral expansion in industry and in the field of the services, professions and
managers, etc.
For many the initial chance of better well-being may depend on the
opportunity of moving out of the sector of farm labor into that of industrial
labor. Thus Paul Douglas in Real Wages in the United States, 1890-
1926* showed that a 6 percent national increase in real earnings in the
United States was due to rural-urban migration. In a refined statistical
analysis of the rise in real wages he showed that there was a total rise of
16.5 percent in the real buying power of all workers between 1920- 1926.
Of this total, 2.5 percent was attributed to the transfer of labor from
farms to cities. This figure offers some measure of economic pressure
on agricultural classes to make an occupational shift.
PRESSURES IN THE SHIFTING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION
Against the varying replacement rates of class groups must be set the
changing employment capacity of the various sectors of our economy. For
convenience three major groups will again be considered: (1) agricultural
and extractive, (2) manufacturing and mechanical, and (3) distributive
and service occupations. Here we should undertake an explanation of the
pressures behind our changing patterns of occupations. The capacity of any
major sector of our economy to employ people depends upon a moving
ratio — the relation between (1) increasing output per worker and (2) the
8 Percy E. Davidson and H. Dewey Anderson, Occupational Mobility in an American City (Stanford,
California: Stanford University Press, I937)> pp. 17-38, 162-167.
4 (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1930), Table 146 and p. 395-
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 149
changing rate of total physical production in that field. This last is de-
pendent on the amount of demand, that is, the extent of the market for
such products. Output per worker has increased constantly in farming,
mining, and manufacturing for the 60 years previous to the depression of
1930. If the demand for products at the prices prevailing in an industry
expands as fast as the increasing output per worker, the proportions in that
industry may expect to remain constant; if the proportionate demand de-
clines, however, increased efficiency will operate to push workers into other
sectors of the economy, if not into unemployment.
Figure 10 1 presents the changing trend of employment in the three
major sectors of the American economy for 120 years. During the whole
period the employment capacity of agriculture has been steadily down-
ward, for increasing output per worker has met no appreciable increase in
the per capita consumption of agricultural products, while exports of food
and fibers have shown a steady decline. Agriculture offers still the main
source of employment in the Southeast but in the Nation the proportions
so employed have declined from 72.3 percent in 1820 to less than half in
1880, less than one-third in 19 10, to hardly more than one-fifth in 1940.
Figure ioi. The Trend in the Number of Gainful Workers by Three
Major Occupational Groups, United States, 1 820-1 940
1940
Source: Leon E. Truesdell, "Growth of Urban Population in the United States," United States Bureau
of the Census Release, 1937, p. 6, Table 2; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-II.
150 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Not only have relative proportions declined but recently the Nation has
seen a decline in absolute numbers from a peak of 11.9 millions in 19 10
to 10.5 millions in 1940.
In the same period those employed in manufacturing and construction
have increased from 358,000, 12.4 percent of those employed in 1820, to
almost 16 million, 30.4 percent in 1940, passing agriculture shortly after
1 9 10. Here an increasing output per worker has met an increasing per
capita demand for industrial products. If, following Mordecai EzekiePs
analysis in the Annals for November 1936,5 we take the 1900 average
as representing 100 in the total volume of physical production, we find
that the physical volume of production in agriculture from 1880 to 1930
changed from 33.6 to 33.3 per capita of the total population. For indus-
trial products in the same period the index rose from 37.1 to 12 1.5 per
capita of the consuming public. Thus, while per capita demand barely
remained constant for agricultural products, it increased over threefold for
industrial products. Already, however, due to increased efficiency, the
proportions employed in industry had begun to slacken, declining in the
period 1920- 1940 from 33.2 to 30.9 percent of the total gainfully em-
ployed.
Figure 102 shows the extent to which this process, forcing population
from agriculture into industry and the services, has operated in the South-
east. From 1870 to 1940 the percentage employed in the extractive econ-
omy declined from approximately 84 percent to 36.5 percent. The peak
in number was reached in 19 10 when approximately 5 million were so
employed. Since then the number engaged in the region's extractive econ-
omy has declined to 4.4 million in 1930 and 3.8 million in 1940.
These are the basic trends behind the movement of southern workers
to industry and the great Negro migration from southern farms to cities
of the Northeast and Middle States. With these figures before us it is
hardly necessary to leave the description of the nature of the process to
speculation. The trend of the differential birth rate has long shown an
inverse relation to the employment capacity of the various sectors of our
economy. Here southern agriculture has been the focal point of crisis.
The piling up of population in agriculture has lowered its proportionate
returns. Thus the search for economic security has forced migration upon
those displaced and has offered upward social mobility to those whose train-
ing and knowledge of other opportunities enabled them to change occu-
pations.
Here a main oportunity has offered itself in the fields of transporta-
tion and trade, attendant upon distributing the products of industry, as
B "Population and Unemployment," Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
188 (November, 1936), pp. 230-242.
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 1 5 1
Figure 102. The Trend in the Number of Gainful Workers by Three
Major Occupational Groups, Southeast, 1870- 1940
MILLIONS
OF
WORKERS
12
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940
Source: Occupational data by States from the United States Census from 1870 to 1940.
well as in the increasing number of occupations that purvey services rather
than goods. In this field extreme regional concentration is not feasible for,
unlike those who extract or fabricate goods, most workers who furnish
services, professional, clerical, or domestic, must be located close to the
populations they serve.
An examination of Figure 101 adds support to the view that the trend
of employment in the clerical and service groups has been uniformly up-
ward in most fields, for growing demand has more often been met by im-
provement in the quality of services rather than by large increases in the
output per worker. While the combined volume of such services is
difficult to measure in terms comparable to the physical volume of goods,
Figure 101 suggests the increased output of services in terms of their in-
creased share of the working force. From 1820 to 1930 the population
engaged in transportation, and trade increased from 2.5 to 28.6 percent
of all gainful workers. This multiplication by 11 furnished an increase
far in excess of that experienced by any other group in our economy.
Whether distribution and trade is overexpanded in our economy, and the
middleman is a social parasite may be most questionable; but in terms
152 ALL THESE PEOPLE
of demand and income the shift has pragmatic justification. In addition,
the services, domestic, professional, public, etc., have increased from 12.8
percent to 18.6 percent in 1930. The depression witnessed large increases
in the public and social services.
Similar trends are evident in the Southeast (Figure 102). The distrib-
utive-service group made up only 12.2 percent of the region's employed
in 1870. From 1880 to 1920 they increased to comprise about one-fourth
of those employed, ranging from 23 to 28 percent in the period. By
1930 the proportion rose to 34.7 percent and by 1940 it had increased to
40.1 percent. Both national and regional figures show the extent to which
gains in those employed in manufacturing and mechanical trades have ac-
companied these increases. These graphs, however, are unable to suggest
the extent to which increases in physical volume have outrun the propor-
tions employed in industry.
The trends in occupational distribution up to 1930 have been sum-
marized by Mordecai Ezekiel as follows: "(1) Output per worker has
increased constantly in farming, mining, and manufacturing. The increases
during the recent decade of 1920- 1930 were not extraordinary, compared
with previous rates of increase. (2) The proportion of the population
occupied has increased rather than decreased. (3) Hours per week [in in-
dustry] have decreased gradually, but output per worker has risen rapidly
even with these shorter hours. (4) The increased productivity in agricul-
ture has been accompanied by [no decrease in hours but by] a correspond-
ing reduction in the proportion of the workers engaged in agriculture, leav-
ing a substantially constant output of farm products per capita of popu-
lation. (5) The increased productivity in industry has been accompanied
by a doubling in the proportion of workers engaged in industry, resulting
in a great expansion in the volume of industrial products per capita of
population. (6) Commerce, trade, and administration absorbed half of
the workers displaced from agriculture from 1820 to 1900, while half
went to manufacturing and mining. Since 1900 the proportion in industry
has remained constant, with virtually all the reduction in the proportion
in agriculture being represented by increases in transportation, trade, and
administration, or in the professional and other service industries."6
In conclusion we are faced with the fact that the differential trends in
income returned and in the employment capacity of agriculture, industry,
and the services still remain in inverse relation to the differential repro-
duction of the class groups they employ. For farmers and less skilled wage
earners this means pressure upon them and their children to climb into
higher occupational ranks. In the middle classes, however, it means that
the failure of white collar and service groups to replace themselves in the
* Ibid., pp. 241-242.
THE CHANGING OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION 153
population leave an "occupational vacuum" into which the more able chil-
dren of the lower classes can climb, provided they have knowledge of the
situation, adequate motivation, and educational opportunity. To make
this shift many southern youth will continue to migrate to large cities where
rates of replacement are already below unity.
Obviously migration in itself is not the complete and perfect answer.
Some balancing of the differential birth rate is to be expected as the pattern
of family limitation continues to percolate downward through the social
strata. In a final chapter on population policy we shall consider the
question whether this trend should not be hastened for the poorer classes
by the inclusion of birth control as a part of public health programs. At
the same time the Southeast will continue to shift part of its resources and
manpower from agriculture to industry, thus balancing its agrarian economy
with needed goods and services. Here the invitation to industry, so per-
sistently extended by all chambers of commerce in peace times and war,
raises the question of the limits of regional dispersion of manufacturing
consistent with sound national policy. It will be the purpose of the two
succeeding sections to discuss the relation of the region's human resources
to the agrarian and the industrial economies.
PART II
POPULATION AND THE AGRARIAN ECONOMY
CHAPTER 12
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN
The population problem of the Southeast is basically agrarian in setting
and in origin. Current discussion has emphasized the fact that the farm
population is predominant, that farms are small and the region's farm in-
comes are among the lowest in the Nation. These conditions pose basic
questions for the developing science of land utilization which, we assume,
is the connecting link between the physical and the human factors in agri-
culture.
It is a fallacy to think of either farming or land-use analysis as simple
procedures. Many factors that must be considered from an individual point
of view in farm management studies are considered from the viewpoint of
social welfare and public policy in land utilization studies. Thus the amount
and type~o£land available to the population is related to the average size
of farms and the distribution of farm land as between the various cropping
systems. In conjunction with available markets, these physical factors help
determine the type of farm as measured by its chief sources of income. These
factors lead to a study "of the productivity of the farm in terms of the sup-
port of the farm family by products sold on the market and those used at
home. Basic to all farming, however, is access to the land. Attention there-
fore will be paid in Following chapters to the conditions of land ownership
and tenancy.
In the changing equation of agricultural production, the quantity and
quality of land available afford one set of limiting factors, the extent of
markets and the trend of prices offer another. Into this hypothetical equa-
tion comes as an intrusive, dynamic factor, the increasing farm population,
pressing against the land supply, pressing against available markets, press-
ing against the limits of subsistence farming. Perfectly willing, often anx-
ious to be drained off to cities and industries, these oncoming youth also as-
sert their rights under private property and individual freedom to enter
agriculture.
[i54]
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 155
This is the challenge of population to land utilization, a challenge
that finds its core in the Southeast, area of greatest importance and greatest
increase in the farm population. Calculations discussed in Chapter 10, Figure
90, showed there were three times as many -youth in the region's farm popu-
lation in 1930 as were needed for replacements in southern agriculture.
If it were conceivable to think of caring for a sizeable proportion of this
increase in the region, what potential land resources would we find? The
great leeway for land expansion in the region was indicated by Howard W.
Odum's estimate that the Southeast might easily add 40 million acres, the
commonly cited post-war surplus of harvested cropland in the Nation j or
take out of cultivation that amount and, through better utilization and
management, enrich its agricultural capacity and output. There is available
for replanning and future use no less than 100,000,000 acres within the
former area of the South's piney woods alone. Of the nation's nearly 100,-
000,000 acres of drainable land suitable for cultivation after reclamation,
the South has nearly two-thirds.1 Large stretches of the South's Coastal
Plains are said to hold the best undeveloped land left in the United States.
We shall realize, of course, that the poor quality of land, the cost of
development, and the trend of prices will operate against putting any such
amounts of land into cultivation. As for the level of farm prices in relation
to quality of land, however, we need to examine this in relation to the price
of land itself.
It is here that we come to the core of the sub-marginal land prob-
lem. It is not only that farmers with little capital but large families fur-
nishing unpaid family labor cannot secure access to good land} actually they
get a higher return on their meager financial resources from cheap land.
As much as any one index, the ratio of gross value of farm products to the
value of farm property serves to explain this situation. Strangely enough,
it reaches its highest in the Southeast (Figure 103). The gross value of
farm production per% $ 1 ,000 of investment was lowest — under $ 1 50 — in
the Nation's blue ribbon land areas, the richest lands of the Corn Belt,
Dairying Regions, and Fruit Growing Districts of California and Florida.
It was highest — $250-500 — in the Eastern and Central Cotton Belts. Here,
of course, fertilizer and labor constitute a higher share of total production
costs. Close behind these areas come the poor and cheap lands of the Appa-
lachians and the Ozarks. Thus, as O. E. Baker points out, it would seem
that persons having little capital and much unpaid family labor can obtain
a larger return by investing in cheap lands. Persons seeking investment
only are likely to buy high quality land and thus keep its value in close
alignment with productivity.
1 Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United Stales, p. 31.
156
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 103. Value of Farm Products per $1,000 Investment in Farm
Property, United States by Counties, 1930
11
4 a,
^^^^^Sr DOLLARS
vml$ffiSf CZZ! ;oo-n4
WffiH HI *oo-*«»
gg| SS0-I99
j§§||l» EH 200-249
^gpK I2g3 JSO-399
gpr\ ESS <oo-«9
%3'iM BB 450-499
VEgjOa SjH 600 and 0V«r
UNITED STATES AVERAGE ^^ vrfwS^L^^ ^W^*
III DOLLARS PER THOUSAND DOLLARS %Kr
Note: Gross value of farm products is that reported for 1929; the value of farms and farm property
is reported as of April I, 1930.
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Negative 28476.
We should begin, of course, by saying that competent studies indicate
that, under efficient practices, half the farm people of the South, working
the better part of our present area of tilled lands, could meet all the nor-
mal domestic and export needs for the products of southern agriculture
and could thereby double their present individual family incomes. Thus,
for example, the National Resources Committee asked the question: Sup-
pose new opportunities attracted workers from the rural Southeast until
the average value productivity per male worker became as high for those
remaining in agriculture in this area as for farm workers in other parts of
the country, how many agricultural workers would be needed in the South-
east? The average gross productivity in 1924-1928 was $768 for the
Southeast as compared with $1726 per year for all sections outside the
Southeast. At this rate of value productivity, the products of 1 1/2 million
male workers would equal that of the total value of all farm commodities
produced in the Southeast. This would release nearly 2 million male work-
ers, who with their families comprising some 9 million people, would be
sufficient to overrun the labor market of the rest of the country.2
THE AVAILABLE LAND SUPPLY
These conflicting points of view set the stage for an examination of the
facts of land resources, the cropping system, available markets, and pos-
sible shifts in land use in the region.
"National Resources Committee, Problems of a Changing Population (Washington, D. C: United
States Government Printing Office, 1938), p. 66.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 157
As compared with other countries, the ratio of land resources to total
population in the United States is still very large. Normally we harvest
nearly three acres of cropland per person as compared with one acre in Ger-
many, one-half acre in China, and one-fourth acre in Japan. In addition,
the Nation has large resources of range and forest lands. The United States
has slowly changed from a nation exporting agricultural products until,
before World War II, nearly all our production was normally consumed
within our borders. The per capita requirements are now about 2.5 acres;
of this figure 0.4 of an acre per person are required to feed horses and mules
used in the process of production.3
Of the major types of land, cropland offers more adequate support for
population, plowable pasture next, and woodland comes last. The Middle
States, with one-third of the Nation's cropland harvested in 1939 and 28.7
percent of its plowable pasture, ranks highest in this respect followed by the
Northwest and the Southeast (Table 34). The Southeast has 39.2 percent
of its farm acreage in cropland as compared with 54.1 percent for the Mid-
are States, and 14.3 percent in plowable pasture as compared with 17.5
percent for the Middle States (Table 35). The Southeast, however, has
almost half, 47.7 percent, of the farm woodland in the Nation, 35.7 per-
cent of its farm acreage being in woodland.
Table 34. Percentage Distribution of the Nation's Land Acreage in
Farms Classified According to Use, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1939
Area
Total
Cropland
harvested
Crop
failures
Cropland idle
or fallow
Plowable
pasture
All
woodland
All
otherf
100.00
5.75
17.31
22.35
20.28
27.95
6.36
100.00
6.37
18.93
12.86
33.16
24.53
4.15
*
100.00
1.97
7.82
17.72
7.24
62.88
2.36
*
100.00
5.09
16.39
12.69
14.32
41.72
9.77
*
100.00
6.95
20.08
14.70
28.68
24.39
5.17
*
100.00
11.59
47.74
14.42
18.00
3.92
4.30
*
100 00
3 13
5 01
37.06
9 29
Middle States
Northwest
36 50
Far West
8 99
District of Columbia ....
•
fThis classification includes pasture land other than plowable and woodland pasture, all wasteland, house yards, barnyards,
feed lots, lanes, roads, etc.
•Less than 0.01 percent.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, Preliminary U. S.-l, Table 2, p. 2.
While no measures of land resources in the United States are com-
pletely satisfactory, three maps serve to indicate high economic density in
the Southeast. Figure 104 shows the size of farm population in proportion
to amount of farm land in crops in 1930. The proportionate size of the
State rectangles indicates the proportion of total land in farms, while the
cross hatching indicates that only Kentucky and Louisiana, for example,
O. E. Baker, Graphic Summary of Physical Features and Land Utilization, V. S. D. A., Miscellaneous
Publication 260 (1936), pp. 1-2.
i5»
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 35. Percentage Distribution of the Regional Land Acreage in
Farms Classified According to Use, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1939
Area
All farm
land
Cropland
harvested
Crop
failure
Cropland idle
or fallow
Plowable
pasture
All
woodland
All
other
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
30.3
33.5
33.2
17.5
49.6
26.6
19.8
43.4
1.9
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.7
4.4
0.7
3.2
5.4
4.8
5.1
3.0
3.8
8.0
8.2
5.2
12.3
14.9
14.3
8.1
17.5
10.8
10.0
9.1
13.0
26.0
35.7
8.3
11.5
1.8
8.8
16.5
37.1
20.1
10.8
61.6
16.9
48.4
52.5
District of Columbia ....
22.6
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, Preliminary U. S.-l, Table 2, p. 2.
Figure 104. The Relative Size of the Farm Population in Relation to
Amount of Land in Farms and Proportion Classified
as Arable, United States, 1930
Source: Problems of a Changing Population, National Resources Planning Board, 1938, p. 54.
had as much as 60 percent of their farm land in crops. Figures 105 and
106 show the size of farm population as related (1) to arable or im-
proved land, (2) to value of farm land per capita of the farm population.
Note the large number of counties in the Southeast with less than 10 acres
of arable land per farm person in 1930, and worth less than $500 per farm
person. These maps, which suggest the real effect of over-population press-
ing on the land supply should be compared with Figure 107 which shows
the degree of productivity of farm land.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 159
Figure 105. Acres of Arable Land per Capita of the Farm Population
by Counties, United States, 1935
Source: Problems of a Changing Population, National Resources Committee, 1938, p. 56.
Figure 106. Value of Farm Land per Capita of the Farm Population
bv Counties, United States, 1930
Source: Problems of a Changing Population, National Resources Committee, 1938, p. 57.
\V
1 60
ALL THESE PEOPLE
In terms of productivity some 16 percent of our farm land has been
classified as excellent and good and 18 percent as fair. Only the Middle
States, with 52.6 percent of their land in the best categories and 20.6 per-
cent classified as fair, greatly exceed the national average (Figure 107).
The Northeast ranks second but, when the land of fair productivity is
added, that region is passed by the Southeast, each having over 43 per-
cent of its land in the first three grades as compared with 29.4 for the
Southwest, 23.8 in the Northwest, and only 6.6 in the Far West.
The Southeast is shown to fall midway between the more productive
land types as in Iowa and the least productive as in the western range areas
(Figure 108). These conditions can be explained in part by the prevalence
of erosion. Figure 109 which gives the effect of man-made erosion indi-
cates that southern and western states have from 60 to 98 percent of the
land area affected. The Northwest, with 76 percent of its land affected
suffered most from wind erosion (Figure 1 10), a form of soil wastage prac-
tically unknown in the Southeast.
The Southeast and Southwest, however, are more subject to sheet
erosion which (Figure in) affected 14.5 and 16.2 percent, respectively,
of all their lands. While nine States were unaffected, at least 40 percent
of the area of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma was affected.
Figure 107. Land of First Three Grades (Excellent, Good and Fair)
as Percentage of All Land, United States, 1934
Source: Report of the Land Planning Committee, National Resources Board, November 15, 1934- Table
p. 127.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 161
Figure 108. Percentage Distribution of Farm Land Classified as
Excellent, Good and Fair, United States and the
Six Major Regions, 1934
Source: See Figure 107.
Figure 109. Percentage of Area Affected by Erosion,*
United States, 1934
* Erosion is here defined as man-induced erosion with a loss of 25 percent or more topsoil caused by
sheet erosion, wind erosion, gullying, or a combination of these conditions.
Source: Soil Erosion, A Critical Problem in American Agriculture, Part V, Supplementary Report of the
Land Planning Committee to the National Resources Board (Washington, D. C, 1935).
1 62 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure no. Percentage of Area Affected by Wind Erosion,
United States, 1934
Source: See Figure 109.
Figure hi. Percentage of Area Affected by Severe Sheet Erosion,*
United States, 1934
* Area affected by severe sheet erosion is that which has lost three-fourths or more of its topsoil and
possibly some of its subsoil.
Source: See Figure 109.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 163
THE SIZE OF HOLDINGS
The Southeast is commonly regarded as the stronghold of the small
fanrfin American agriculture. Only If we follow the practice of the census
which considers the plantation's tenant farms as separate holdings is this
view justified. Considered in terms of tillage units, however, the area has
76.7 percent of its farms under a hundred acres — with average size around
81 acres and average cropland less than 45. This small acreage is associa-
ted with crops which demand a great deal of laborand possess relatively
high value per acre, cotton, tobacco, and truck crops.
What has been the region's trend of land use in terms of size of farm
and the amount of land available to farm operators? Here it must be
pointed out we run into that transition from plantations to farm operator
units first encountered in the Census of 1870. The Southeast of 1850-
1860 (Table 36) was expansive in its land holdings and extensive in culti-
vation. In i860 only 597>°32 farms were listed in the 11 plantation States
of the Southeast but they held over 194^ million acres of farm land — a
total that has been exceeded only in the prosperous decades of 1900 and
1 9 10. The 600,000 odd ownership units of i860 comprised both small
Table 36. Farms, Farm Land, and Farm Values, United States
and Southeast, 1 850-1 940
Farms
All land in farms
Improved land in
farms*
Value of land and
buildings
Area and census
year
Number
Percent
change
Thorn ands
of acres
Percent
change
Thousands
of acres
Percent
change
Thousands
of dollars
Percent
change
United States
1850
1,449,073
2,044,077
2,659,985
4,008,907
4,564,641
5,737,372
6,361,502
6,448,343
6,371,640
6,288,648
6,812,350
6,096,799
474,622
597,032
749,373
1,244,518
1,476,086
2,011,359
2,332,924
2,433,102
2,318,777
2,388,806
2,547,952
2,259,030
ii'.i
30.1
50.7
13.9
25.7
10.9
1.4
- 1.2
- 1.3
8.3
-10.5
is'. 8
25.5
66.1
18.6
36.3
16.0
4.3
- 4.7
3.0
6.7
-11.3
293,561
407,213
407,735
536,082
623,219
838,592'
878,798
955,884
924,319
986,771
1,054,515
1,060,852
153,933
194,296
157,055
182,206
187,251
196,342
197,030
188,871
169,329
170,508
188;543
183,677
38^7
0.1
31.5
16.3
34.6
4.8
8.8
- 3.3
6.8
6.9
0.6
26^2 ■
-19.2
16.0
2.8
4.8
0.4
- 4.1
-10.4
0.7
10.6
- 2.6
113,033
163,111
188,921
284,771
357,617
414,498
478,452
503,073
505,027
522,396
513,514
530,131
48,009
61,826
52,126
65,432
77,917
88,183
96,184
98,412
87,997
90,794
94,018
98,162
44 '3
15.8
50.7
25.6
15.9
15.4
5.1
0.4
3.4
- 1.7
3.2
28^8
-15.7
16.0
19.1
13.2
9.1
2.3
-10.6
3.2
3.6
4.4
$ 3,271,575
6,645,045
7,444,054
10,197,097
13,279,253
16,614,647
34,801,126
66,316,003
49,467,647
47,879,838
32,858,844
33,641,739
931,815
2,054,104
982,585
1,363,789
1,793,794
2,027,259
4,204,030
9,224,903
6,683,193
6,731,231
4,839,744
5,690,359
1860
103.1
12.0
37.0
30.2
25.1
109.5
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1925
90.6
- 25.4
1930
1935
— 3.2
- 31.4
1940
Southeast
1850
2.4
1860
1870
120.4
- 52.2
1880
1890
38.8
31.5
1900
1910
13.0
107.4
1920
1925
119.4
1930
— 27.6
1935
0.7
1940
— 28.1
17.6
*D",? Te4." to. year. Preceding the census year. Beginning with 1925, the census discontinued the classification ,,-,,,:„ „1
in \ TrJerefore.for the period 1925-40 the sum of all crop land (crop land harvested, crop failure, and crop land idle or
tallow) and plowable pasture is substituted as the nearest equivalent.
Source: Bureau of the Census .Plantation Farming in the Uniud States (Washington: Govt. Printing Office, 1916); Thirteenth
Census of the United States 1910, V, Agriculture; Abstract of the Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1910; United States Census
of Agriculture , 1933, V. Ill; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940. Agriculture, First Series Table 5
1 64
ALL THESE PEOPLE
farms and plantations and cannot be related either to units of tillage or to
the farm population.
The number of farms increased by decades. With 1 1 million less acres
in farms in 1940, the Southeast had over 2*4 million farm units. Not all
of the increase in number of farm operators shown in Table 36 represents
growth of farm population. The break-up of the plantations into small
farms and tenant holdings is represented by the steady decline in average
size of farm unit from 325 acres in i860 to 98 acres in 1900 (Table 37).
The year 19 10 represents the high water mark of agricultural expansion in
the region, when 197 million acres in farms were divided among 2.3
million farm operators, owners, and tenants (Table 36). Great changes
were concentrated in the period from 1900 to 1940. With the decline in
total farm land, it is worth remarking that the average amount of improved
land per farm (cropland plus plowable pasture) remained fairly stable
around 40 acres. In this period the amount of unimproved land declined by
22 million acres, improved land increased by 10 million acres, and the
number of farms increased by some 248,000. The average size of farm,
for whatever the figures are worth, decreased from 97.6 acres in 1900 to
71.4 acres in 1930 and then rose to 81.3 in 1940 (Table 37). In 1900 im-
proved land suitable for crops and plowed pasture averaged about 44 acres
per operator ; this figure was 43.5 in 1940. With large decreases in the
size of farms the average amount of improved land per farm has remained
fairly constant. Together with the development of commercial fertilizer
for staple crops, this one fact helps to explain how the region has managed
to retain so many of its people on the land.
Size of farm may be accepted as a most important measure of population
pressure on land, often operating as a limiting factor to adequate land utili-
Table 37. Average Acreage per Farm and Average Value per Farm
and per Acre, United States and Southeast, 1850-1940
Average
total
acreage
Acres
Average im-
proved acreage
Value of land
and buildings
Area and census
year
Acres
Percent
of total
Per
farm
Dollar;
Per acre
of land
Dollars
United States
1850
202.6
199.2
153.3
133.7
136.5
146.2
138.1
148.2
145.1
156.9
154.8
174.0
78.0
79.8
71.0
71.0
78.3
72.2
75.2
78.0
79.3
83.1
75.4
87.0
38.5
40.1
46.3
53.1
57.4
49.4
54.4
52.6
54.6
53.0
48.7
50.0
32,258
3,251
2,799
2,544
2,909
2,896
5,471
10,284
7,764
7,614
4,823
5,518
211
16
18
19
21
20
40
69
54
49
31
32
I860...
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920 .
1925
1930
1935
1940
Area and census
year
Southeast
1850....
I860....
1870....
1880....
1890....
1900....
1910....
1920....
1925....
1930....
1935....
1940....
Average
total
acreage
Acres
324.3
325.4
209.6
146.4
126.9
97.6
84.5
77.6
73.0
71.4
74.0
81.3
Average im-
proved acreage
Acres
101.2
103.6
69.6
52.6
52.8
43.8
41.2
40.4
37.9
38.0
36.9
43.5
Percent
of total
31.2
31.8
33.2
35.9
41.6
44.9
48.8
52.1
51.9
53.2
49.9
53.4
Value of land
and buildings
Per
farm
Dollars
SI, 963
3,440
1,311
1,096
1,215
1,008
1,802
3,791
2,882
2,818
1,899
2,519
Per acre
of land
Dollars
S 6
11
6
7
10
10
21
49
39
39
26
31
Source: See Table 36.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 165
zation. That a distinction must be made in this connection between crop-
land and range land is shown by the fact that in a State like Wyoming the
average farm unit has over 1400 acres in pasture.
Figure 112 compares the regional trends in farms of various sizes from
1 900 to 1 940. The Southeast and Far West and Northeast over a 40 year
period have attained the largest proportion of small farms while the North-
west has gained an increasing proportion of farms over 500 acres. The
movement has been toward larger farms in regions of large farms: the
Northwest, Middle States and Southwest; and toward smaller farms in
the Far West and Southeast (Figure 112). From 1930 to 1940 all regions
showed increases in the proportion of farms under 100 acres except the
southern regions where the average size of farm increased.
Many farm management people feel that farms are too small in the
Southeast to be efficient business units, making the best use of their labor,
land, and necessary overhead investment. Not only have southern farmers
been forced to crop small acreages too intensively, but the recent emphasis
on their lack of livestock and forest products would suggest that they need
additional acreage for the extensive utilization implied in the building up
of permanent pastures and wood lots.
Such criticisms of prevailing practices are not to be silenced by refer-
ence to the family-sized farm. It is precisely the family-sized farm that
should be large enough to give scope to the labor of growing sons and to
allow for normal overlapping of the generations in handing down the patri-
mony. Usually the farmer's son will want to marry and settle down be-
fore the farmer is willing or able to retire. Unless the farm enterprise is
large enough to absorb his labor, he will seek to become established in
another occupation and will not return to the farm when it becomes vacant.
For continuity of the generations, the size of the family farm should thus
be much larger than is generally assumed.
In many areas of the Nation farms are large enough to satisfy these
conditions. The average farm operator in 1940 had 174 acres at his dis-
posal with 87 acres for crops and pasture. The Southeast and Northeast
have the smallest farms, the Northwest the largest, the Middle States the
medium-sized farms (Figure 112). By States, the average size of farm
ranged in 1940 from 60 and 65 acres in Massachusetts and Mississippi,
respectively, to 1,866 acres in Wyoming (Figure 113). Florida's average
size of 134 acres per farm was the largest in the Southeast. Over half,
53.7 percent, of the farms in the region were under 50 acres, and over
three-fourths, 76.7 percent, were under 100 acres. In contrast with the
Far West which has 60 and 73 percent of its farms in the same size groups,
the Northwest has 77 percent of its farms over 100 acres and 21 percent
over 500 acres. Figure 112 shows other regional contrasts.
i66
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 112. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Size,
the Six Major Regions, 1900- 1940
Q 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Source: Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States, p. 378 and our Figure 113.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 167
Figure 113. Average Size of Farm, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, United States Summary,
Tables 5 and 7.
In spite of the preponderance of small farms, the figures would seem
to indicate a more equitable division of farm land among farm operators
in the Southeast than in the Nation. Table 38 relates the number of farm
operators by the size of their farms in 1935 to the amount of land in farms
and available for crops. Thus, while 39.5 percent of all farm operators in
the Nation held farms of less than 50 acres, they controlled only $.6 of
the Nation's farm land and 8.4 percent of the cropland. Comparably, in
the Southeast, 56.8 percent of all operators had tracts of less than 50 acres
and controlled 17.3 percent of the land in farms and 26.3 percent of all
cropland. On the Lorenz curves, Figure 114, we can read by interpolation
the following comparisons: In the Nation the 50 percent of the farmers
with the smaller farms operated 10 percent of the farm lands ; in the South-
east they operated 13 percent of the land. Directing our attention to the
large farms, we find that 50 percent of the farm land in the Nation was in
blocks of 250 acres and more and was operated by about 7 percent of the
farmers. In the Southeast, 50 percent of the land was in tracts of over
140 acres, and was tilled by 1 2^/2 percent of the operators. By comparing
the Nation and the Southeast at their greatest point of divergence, we find
that 10 percent of the farmers in the United States operated $$ percent of
the farm land while the same proportion of farmers in the Southeast oper-
i68
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 38. Cumulative Percentages of Farm Operators, All Land in
Farms, and Land Available for Crops,* by Size of Farm, United
States and Southeast, 1930 and 1935
United States
Southeast
Size of farm
1930
1935
1930
193S
Oper-
All
Crop
Oper-
All
Crop
Oper-
All
Crop
land
Oper-
All
Crop
land
ators
land
land
ators
land
land
ators
land
ators
land
0.7
**
0.5
**
++
0.3
**
0.4
**
**
5.7
0.2
8.4
0.3
0.4
6.0
0.5
9.3
0.7
1.1
14.6
1.0
18.4
1.2
1.9
20.8
3.5
25.3
3.8
6.4
26.6
2.4
3.9
38.7
8.0
37.5
5.7
39.5
5.6
8.4
57.4
i9.4
56.8
17.3
26.3
48.0
8.8
12.5
67.7
25.7
' 100 acres
59.4
15.7
60.7
15.5
21.0
79.8
40.9
78.7
37.8
49.4
71.8
23.7
31.2
87.5
51.4
80.8
34.0
81.3
33.4
43.8
92.7
63.7
91.8
60.4
70.5
89.1
45.2
89.2
44.2
57.4
96.8
75.6
96.1
72.6
80.8
96.3
61.1
96.1
59.8
77.0
99.2
87.3
98.8
85.0
90.5
' 1000 acres
98.8
72.1
98.6
70.6
88.6
99.9
93.4
99.6
92.0
95.6
Al
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
*Crop land harvested, crop failure, idle or fallow crop land, and plowable pasture; comparable data could not be computed
for 1930 since crop failure by size of farm is not available.
**Less than 0.1 percent.
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. II, Table 6.
Figure 114. The Distribution of Farm Land and Farm Operators by
Cumulative Percentages, Lorenz Curve, United States
and Southeast, 1935
CUMULATIVE
PERCENTAGE
OF LAND
100
1 1 1
— — UNITED STATES, ALL LAND IN FARMS
SOUTHEAST, ALL LAND IN FARMS
/It
s
OUTHEAST, C
ROP LAND AVAILABLE /
4
A
•
/
*
*
*
•
>
y' y
20 40 60 SO
CUMULATIVE PERCENTAGE OF OPERATORS
Source: See Table 38.
ated 43 percent of all the land. This condition holds for operation, not for
the ownership of land.
The conclusion that, on the basis of present statistics, land is more
equitably distributed in the Southeast than in the Nation is more apparent
than real. It requires a much larger farm in the sub-humid West to equal
net returns from farms of the humid East. The large holdings represented
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 169
by stock ranches in the Great Plain and large scale farms worked by hired
labor in the Far West are adequately represented in the census figures.
Not so for the plantations of the Southeast. All tenant and cropper hold-
ings are returned as operators' tracts, although many such tenants have no
higher status than hired agricultural labor elsewhere.
THE TYPE OF FARM
The size of farm is so intimately related to the type of farming that it
is unrealistic to discuss them separately. The analysis by type of farm, first
introduced in the Census of 1930, was based on value of products sold.
When the value of a commodity sold from a farm such as grain, cotton,
poultry, livestock or dairy products exceeded 40 percent of all products the
farm was classified under that category. A farm was classified as a general
farm when it had several products, none exceeding 40 percent total value ;
as a self-sufficing farm when the value of products consumed by the fam-
ily exceeded the value of those sold; as a part-time farm when the operator
worked elsewhere for pay more than 150 days and the value of products
was less than $750.
Figure 115, which compares the main type of farms in the region with
those in the Nation in 1930, shows the region's predominance of cotton and
tobacco (crop specialty) farms. Figure 116 shows the type of farm by
counties. In relation to type of farming, the size of farm is associated with
the labor requirements per acre and that is dependent in large part on the
use of power machinery. Cotton and tobacco make heavy requirements on
hand labor and these farms, most of which are tenant and cropper holdings,
average less than 75 acres in size. In the Southeastern States, the cotton
farms, the predominant type, averaged 45 to 75 acres. Only part-time
farms which have from 33 to 52 acres were smaller, feoth cash grain and
general farms averaged well over 100 acres in the Southeast but were ex-
ceeded by dairy farms. Largest of all were the small number of ranches
which in the Southeast range from an average of 250 acres in Tennessee
to over 1,000 acres in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
The type of farm analysis used in the 1 940 Census offers less enlighten-
ment because of the use of the blanket classification, "field crops." In the
Southeast, Figure 117, this included almost half the farms, 49.1 percent.'
An additional 41.2 percent were included under the classification "farm
products used by farm households." While it is more than improbable that
subsistence farms increased to this extent in the depression period, com-
parison with the national distribution, Figure 117, shows the predomi-
nance of these two types in southern agriculture along with the under rep-
resentation of livestock, dairy farms, and other specialties. Analysis of the
crop system in the succeeding chapter will bring out further distinctions.
170
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 115. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Type,
United States and Southeast, 1929
30 20
PERCENT
20 30
PERCENT
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Agriculture, III, Type of Farm, United States and
State Summaries.
Figure 116. The Most Important Type of Farm by Value of Products
by Counties, United States, 1929
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Negative 27204.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 171
Figure 117. The Percentage Distribution of Farms Classified by Type
of Products Serving as Major Source of Income, United States
and Southeast, 1939
UNITED STATES
FIELD CROPS
HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
DAIRY PRODUCTS
FRUITS AND NUTS
VEGETABLES FOR SALE
FOREST PRODUCTS
HORTICULTURE
OTHER LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS!
SOUTHEAST
30 20
PERCENT
20 30
PERCENT
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, Third Series, United States and State
Summaries.
THE VALUE OF PRODUCTS PER FARM
The results of our varying size of farms, cropping systems, and avail-
able markets are to~be seen in the different values of products provided
by farms the country over. In his attempt to make adequate use of physical
resources and to supply the demand for food and fiber, it is also the task
of the farmer as manager to support the farm family. A good measure
of the results attained is found in the value of products sold, traded, and
consumed per farm. In 1939 tnis figure averaged $1,309 per farm and
ranged from $747 in the Southeast, $1,2.20 in the Southwest, and $1,552
in the Northeast to $1,621 in the Middle States, $1,794 in the Northwest,
and $2,659 m tne Far West (Figure 118). Alabama had the lowest aver-
age, $522 per farm, and California the highest, $3,658. Florida with
$1,517 per farm was the highest in the Southeast.
In 1939 almost two-thirds of the farms in the Nation produced less
than $1,000 gross value of products. Over half of these farms were in
the Southeast, and over 82 percent of all the farms in the region produced
less than $1,000 worth of products. Table 39 and Figures 119 and 120
show that over two-fifths of the region's farms produced below $400 worth
of products and almost two-thirds below $600.
172
Figure 118.
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Average Value of Farm Products Sold, Traded and Used
by Farm Households, United States, 1939
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, Series S-3, State Summaries, Table I.
Table 39. Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of
Products Sold, Traded or Used by Farm Households, United
States and Southeast, 1929 and 1939
1929
1939
Value of products
1929
1939
Value of products
United
States
South-
east
United
States
South-
east
United
States
South-
east
United
States
South-
east
Under? 250
6.6
15.3
28.0
48.0
64.4
8.5
20.9
39.8
68.8
85.5
19.2
33.0
47.6
65.3
77.2
22.7
42.4
62.8
82.8
91.6
Under? 2,500
Under 3,500
Under 6,000
Under 10,000
80.8
91.2
96.1
98.5
100.0
95.3
98.2
99.1
99.6
100.0
88.6
94.9
97.7
99.2
100.0
96.7
Under 400
98.6
Under 600
99.3
Under 1,000
99.7
Under 1 500
100.0
.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agricultural Series S-3.
Comparison of relative values for 1929 and 1939 shows the extent to
which the depression has increased the number of farms in the lower in-
come brackets (Figs. 119, 120). Thus, whereas some 40 percent of South-
eastern farms had total products valued at less than $600 in 1929, over 62
percent fell below that value in 1939. The proportion of farms with gross
values below $250 increased from 8.5 to 22.7 percent. Increases in subsis-
tence farms and decreases in staple crops offer partial explanation. Compar-
ison with the Nation shows that, while the trends were similar, the Nation
did not suffer as great a decline. Analysis of the southern states (Table
40) indicates that North Carolina had the most equitable distribution of
values among its farms, Kentucky and Alabama the least equitable divisions.
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 173
Figure 119. The Cumulative Percentage Distribution of Farms by
Value of All Products, United States and
Southeast, 1929 and 1939
HO
'''S^
^
^
t
' 1 /
0
t
*
f /
60
50
t I
if
t
$
1 A
i /
1 /
1 /
UNITED STATES
i
— — IMS
1929
SOUTHEAST
— - l»»
1929
30
i
0
/ A
$ /
/ 1
f 1
/
/
t /
/ /
tj
tf
V
/
0
290 400 «0O
3900 6PO0 IOPO0
Source: See Table 39.
Comparison of the 1939 farm incomes with the comparatively pros-
perous year of 1929 shows how total value productivity was affected by de-
pression. Average value of products declined from $1,835 to $1,309
per farm in the United States. Figures 118 and 121 serve to compare
these periods by States. Whereas less than one-half, 48 percent, of the
Nation's farms produced crops worth less than $1,000 in 1929, almost two-
thirds, 65.3 percent, were so classified in 1939. In 1929, about two-thirds
of the Southeastern farms were in this low group j in 1939 there were 83
percent. These serious losses represented both the effects of the fall in
price levels and the reduction of staple crops set up under the quota sys-
tems. Small farms suffered greatly because their crop acreages devoted to
staples were already near the margin. These figures, however, do not
include crop benefits, ranging from $20 to $126 per farm from 1933 to
1940.
Several considerations serve to shed light on these figures. It will be
realized that these gross values do not represent what the farmer has left
after paying his bills. Out of these figures all operators must meet their
costs of production and in addition all tenants must pay their rents either
in cash or in a share of the product. The amount of additional income re-
ceived by farmers from non-agricultural sources sucn as gifts, pensions, in-
vestments, etc., while variously estimated, is not large. The extent of part-
time farming is better known. We know from the 1930 Census that there
were 339,207 farms producing less tnan $750 wnose operators supple-
mented their income by working 150 days or more off the farm. This
174
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 120. The Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of All
Products Sold, Traded and Used, United States, 1939,
Southeast, 1929 and 1939
10 20
PERCENT
20 10
PERCENT
Source: See Tables 39 and 40.
group represented 5.7 percent of all farms or 20 percent of all the farms
producing less than $600 worth of products. In the 1940 enumeration,
when no upper limit was placed on the value of products, over 760,000
farms were returned as part-time. In the South, 27 percent of operators
worked off farms, spending an average of 50 days' work on other farms
and 165 days in nonfarm work. This fell below the proportions in New
England and the Far West. In the Southeast such part-time farms were
most numerous in coal areas of the Southern Appalachians and around
cities. They undoubtedly serve to raise the income level of the lower
bracket of farmers. In addition, some of these part-time operators no doubt
are full-time industrial workers who may enjoy higher standards because
of farm residence.
In the Southeast, as elsewhere, the value of products per farm varied
according to the type of farming practiced. The mode is set by the pre-
dominant types of cotton and tobacco farms, but in 1929 values were even
FARM POPULATION AND THE LAND USE PATTERN 175
Table 40. Percentage Distribution of Farms by Value of Products Sold,
Traded or Used by Farm Households, United States
and Southeast, 1939
Value of products
All values
Under ? 250.
$ 250 - 399
400 - 599
600 - 999
1,000- 1,499
1,500- 2,499
2,500- 3,999
4,000- 5,999
6,000- 9,999.
10,000 and over
100.0
19.2
13.8
14.6
17.7
11.9
11.4
6.3
2.8
1.5
1.0
100.0
22.7
19.7
20.4
20.0
8.8
5.1
1.9
0.7
0.4
0.3
100.0
25.0
17.9
17.4
18.2
9.5
6.5
2.7
1.2
0.8
0.6
100.0
14.2
12.9
15.9
23.6
16.6
11.8
3.6
0.9
0.3
0.2
100.0
17.5
15.8
20.9
24.6
11.5
6.1
2.0
0.8
0.5
0.3
O
100.0
100.0
30.0
16.6
14.6
14.8
8.2
6.6
3.5
2.0
1.6
2.2
14
100.0
31.7
J9.0
16.0
15.6
8.0
5.6
2.4
0.9
0.5
0.2
H
100.0
25.8
20.5
20.2
19.2
7.7
4.1
1.5
0.6
0.3
0.2
100.0
100.0
24.2
24.6
24.0
19.0
5.2
1.8
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
100.0
18.5
20.8
22.9
22.3
8.3
4.0
1.6
0.7
0.5
0.4
•Excludes unclassified farms as well as farms with no farm products sold, traded, or used by farm households.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agricultural Series S-3, State Summaries.
100.0
19.6
22.5
25.1
19.8
6.2
3.2
1.6
0.9
0.7
0.5
Figure 121. Average Value of Farm Products Sold, Traded and Used
by Farm Households, United States, 1929
Source: See Table 40.
lower in part-time and subsistence farms. Highest gross returns were made
by the few stock ranches in the region, and by the more numerous dairy
farms. Figure 122, which points out these distinctions for 1929, shows that
average production values on general farms and truck farms were no higher
176
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 122. The Average Value of All Farm Products per Farm
by Type of Farm, 1929
1. STOCK- It AMGM
2. ANIUAL-SPFCIAl .!TY
J. FRUIT
4. CASH-ORAIN
5. TRUCK
t. DAIRY
7. POULTRY
8. CROP- SPECIALITY
9. QBNERAL
10. COTTON
11. ABNORMAL
12 SBLF-SUFFICINO
ULTUftAt. ECONOMIC!
Table 41. Per Farm Value of Products Sold, Traded or Used by Farm
Household, for Farms Classified by Major Source of Income,
United States and Southeast, 1939
Per farm value of products
Major source of
income
Per farm value of products
Major source ot
income
United
States
Dollars
South-
east
Dollars
Ratio
Southeast
to United
States
Ptrctnt
United
States
Dollars
South-
east
Dollars
Ratio
Southeast
to United
States
Percent
1,309
6,924
2,529
2,488
2,251
2,241
747
5,064
1,679
1,425
1,912
1,981
57.1
73.1
66.4
57.3
84.9
88.4
1,962
1,650
1,379
1,113
360
2,786
1,407
871
1,296
363
142.0
All sources reported
Poultry and poultry
85.3
Horticultural specialties. .
63.2
Farm products used by
116 4
Other livestock products .
100 8
Vegetables harvested
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, 1940, Agriculture, Third Series, U. S. Summary.
than on cotton farms. The 1939 values on groups of farms by major source
of income are not comparable to those returned by type farm in 1929.
Table 41 compares the region and the Nation in this respect. Horticul-
tural specialty farms ranked the highest, followed by livestock, truck farms,
and orchards. The region's dairy farms and timber lands return a higher
income than the national average. In all other categories excepting sub-
sistence farms values are much less than for the Nation.
Our next step, accordingly, will be to examine the supporting capacity
of the prevailing cropping system and to show how the crop control pro-
gram affected land use in the Southeast.
CHAPTER 13
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM
The period from 1930 to 1940 marks the most drastic changes the
Southeast has undergone in its major crop systems since the abolition
of slavery and the breaking up of the plantation. In view of the low re-
turns from cotton and tobacco, the suggestion has often been made that the
region make a transfer to livestock, general farming, and specialty crops.
The depression offered a test of this advice in the initiation of control of
staple crops and the diversion of land to forage and cover crops.
A review of the evidence indicates that cotton, even at the low prices
prevailing from 1930-1939, had comparative advantage over any commer-
cial crop or combination of crops that can be substituted for it. The Bureau
of Agricultural Economics over a ten-year period has estimated the average
gross returns to labor on the five principal crops in the Cotton Belt. From
1923 to 1932 the average return to labor from cotton was $13.45 per acre
as compared with $2.00 from corn, $0.70 from wheat, $0.65 from oats,
and $69.54 from tobacco. The high gross returns from tobacco as compared
with those from cotton are largely offset by the large amount of labor re-
quired— approximately 400 man hours per acre as compared with 85 in
cotton. While the returns per hour of man labor were estimated at about
16 cents in cotton and 17 cents in tobacco, they were only 3 to 5 cents in
corn, wheat, and oats.1
Grain prices, it should be realized, are relatively higher in deficit areas
such as the South than in the main grain producing areas. Accordingly, in-
creases in grain production in the South will lower prices nearer to the
level found in other regions and thus may serve to increase the relative
advantage of cotton as a commercial crop.
Under prevailing conditions this disadvantage also extends to livestock
production. In eight cotton States of the Southeast over the ten-year pe-
riod, it required from 2 to 9 times as many acres in cropland and improved
1 United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, The World Cotton Situ-
ation: Part II, Cotton Production in the United States (Washington, D. C.: 1936), p. 58.
[ 177]
I?8 ALL THESE PEOPLE
pastures to produce $100 worth of dairy, beef cattle, and hog products as
were required to produce $100 worth of cotton. The acreage requirements
for poultry were 50 percent greater than those for cotton. The low re-
turns from livestock can be attributed largely to low feed yields and to the
low carrying capacity of pastures in many Cotton Belt areas. Correction of
these shortcomings will be required to develop an adequate livestock indus-
try. At present an average of 125 acres in crops and improved pasture is
required to produce a gross income from beef cattle equal to that obtained
from 15 acres in cotton— the average cotton acreage per family in many
areas of the region.2 In some areas such as the Black Prairies of Alabama
feed yields are now high enough to allow stock raising to supplant cotton.
In the main, however, livestock production in the Cotton Belt is inci-
dental to the production of cash crops. It is thus that farm by-products
and feeds with no other outlet are utilized in producing livestock. In turn
this enterprise has contributed toward higher returns, a better adjusted
cropping system, and increased yields. Further expansion in this direction
is feasible, but at present price levels only few areas in the Cotton Belt can
be found where the commercial production of livestock can compete with
cotton for the use of farm land, labor, and capital.3
In terms of employment the production of cotton in the region has pro-
vided for almost 3 times as much employment as the principal grains com-
bined, y/2 times as much as corn, 9 times as much as tobacco, and 20 times"
as much as wheat.
GROSS FARM INCOME BY SOURCES
It has been pointed out that gross agricultural income per farm is low-
est in the Southeast (Figure 123). In 1940 it was $919 .per farm as com-
pared with $1,698 for the United States and $3,508 for the Far West.
Table 42 shows that more than in any other region, Southeastern and Far
Western farmers placed their reliance on crop production to the exclusion
of livestock. In 1940 crops furnished 55.6 percent of the average gross
income per farm in the Southeast. Amounting to only $511 per farm, this
was the second highest proportion in the Nation and can be compared with
38 3 percent income from crops for the Nation and 26.8 percent for the
Middle States. In contrast, the Middle States received incomes of $567
per farm from crops and $1,418 from livestock. The region had crop val-
ues of more than $1,155,000,000, or 29.1 percent of the Nation s total
gross income from crops; and was approached by the Middle States with
some 23.9 percent. Conversely, Table 43 shows that the Southeast ac-
counted for only 12.8 percent of the Nation's gross value from livestock
2 Ibid., pp- 64-65.
s Ibid., p. 65.
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 1 79
Figure 123. Gross Income per Farm from Crops, Livestock, Livestock
Products and Benefit Payments, United States, 1940
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Economics: Gross Farm Income and Government Payments, Table 5
(May 26, 1941).
Table 42. Amount and Percentage Distribution of Gross Income per
Farm, from Farm Production by Origin of Income, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Origin of income
Total.
Crops
Livestock and live-
stock products . .
Benefit payments. .
United
States
Dol-
lars
1,698
650
922
126
Per-
cent
100.0
38.3
54. 3
7.4
Northeast
Dol-
lars
2,032
712
1,283
37
Per-
cent
100.0
35.0
63.2
1.8
Southeast
Dol-
lars
919
511
319
89
Per-
cent
100.0
55.6
34.7
9.7
Southwest
Dol-
lars
1,597
651
760
186
Per-
cent
100.0
40.8
47.6
11.6
Middle
States
Dol-
lars
2,114
567
1,418
129
Per-
cent
100.0
26.8
67.1
6.1
Northwest
Dol-
lars
2,384
711
1,388
285
Per-
cent
100.0
29.8
58.2
12.0
Far West
Dol-
lars
3,508
2,004
1,382
122
Per-
cent
100.0
59.1
39.4
3.S
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, United States Summary, Table V; United States
in^??rSaL1?t r ASnculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Gross Farm Income and Government Payments, (May 26
iy41), 1 able 5. »
products, and its average farm received $319, or only 34.7 percent of its
income from this source. In contrast over 54 percent of the Nation's agri-
cultural income came from livestock and its products. Besides the South-
east, only the Far West fell as low as 39.4 percent in this respect.
Benefit payments accounted for the remainder of the farmer's income.
For the Southeast they amounted to $89 per farm or 9.7 percent of all
income (Table 42). This is below the national average of $126 per farm
i8o
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 43. Gross Income from Farm Production by Origin of Income and
Percentage Distribution of Each Source of Income, United
States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Total income
Crops
Livestock and
livestock products
Benefit payments
Area
$1,000
Percent
?1 ,000
Percent
$1,000
Percent
?1,000
Percent
United States
10,351,987
1,287,925
2,075,204
1,038,367
3,535,610
1,433,445
981,436
100.0
12.4
20.1
10.0
34.2
13.8
9.5
3,966,008
451,126
1,155,188
423,241
948,486
427,277
560,690
100.0
11.4
29.1
10.7
23.9
10.8
14.1
5,620,180
813,472
719,457
494,361
2,371,822
834,530
386,538
100.0
14.5
12.8
8.8
42.2
14.8
6.9
765,799
23,327
200,559
120,765
215,302
171,638
34,208
100.0
3.0
26.2
15.8
28.1
22.4
4.5
Far West
Source: See Table 42.
and can be compared with the highest region, the Northwest, where bene-
fit payments were $285 per farm and accounted for 12 percent of the gross
income on the average farm. The ratio for the Nation was 7.4 percent.
It is significant that this figure fell to 1.8 percent in the Northeast and 3.5
percent in the Far West.
acreage and value ratios
Studies of the depression experience in southern agriculture usually em-
phasize it as an experiment in acreage and price control. To show its re-
lation to basic conditions of farm population and support it can be viewed as
a change from an intensive to a more extensive use of the land. ^ In terms
of various cropping systems, the region's capacity to hold population on the
land may be suggested by comparing the proportion of gross values to pro-
portion of total acreage harvested.
The Agricultural Census of 1935 (Table 44, Figure 124) served to
show the new relation between the acreage and the gross value of crops
produced in the Southeast.4 In 1934 under the Bankhead Act cotton acre-
age reached its lowest point of importance. With 21.8 percent of the re-
gion's acreage it accounted for 32 percent of total gross crop value. Next
came corn. Occupying the largest share of cropland, 44.3 percent, it ac-
counted for only 20.6 percent of the region's crop values. Cotton and corn
thus represent the high and low value crops in southern agriculture. To-
bacco, fruits, vegetables, and sugarcane furnish crops of high gross value
in relation to acreage while grains, hay, legumes, and sorghum occupy an
acreage in excess of their proportionate value in the region.
Highest in value per acre was tobacco, a crop which occupied only 1.8
percent of the acreage but accounted for 13 percent of crop values. The
important vegetable crop is difficult of analysis. All vegetables grown for
' However unorthodox this procedure may have been considered under a regime of fluctuating prices, it
may be an allowable device in a regime of stabilized prices.
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 1 8 1
Table 44. Acreage Harvested and Value of Crops, Southeast,
1929 and 1934
Acreage harvested
Value of crops
Crops
1929
1934
1929
1934
1,000
acres
Percent
of total
1,000
acres
Percent
of total
1,000
dollars
Percent
of total
1,000
dollars
Percent
of total
All Crops
59,888
342
59,546
22,260
21,260
4,600
3,858
2,483
1,543
1,580
1,667
295
100.0
37.4
35.7
7.7
6.5
4.2
2.6
2.6
2.8
0.5
61,821
704
61,117
27,084
13,346
5,824
4,746
4,731
2,210
1,654
1,119
403
100.0
44.3
21.8
9.5
7.8
7.8
3.6
2.7
1.8
0.7
2,072,954
46,187
2,026,767
358,829
887,046
78,203
32,491
61,830
262,332
105,403
218,200
22,433
100.0
17.7
43.8
-3.9
1.6
3.1
13.0
5.2
10.6 -
1.1
1,524,568
313,022
487,568
72,907
50,787
92,721
202,694
87,477
198,633
18,759
Total Comparable Crops. .
All corn
100.0
20.6
32.0
Cotton
All cereals (except corn) . .
Annual legumes**
Vegetables fOncl. potatoes)
Fruit and strawberries
4.8
3.3
6.1
13.3
5.7
13.0
1 2
_ 'Miscellaneous crops include minor crops such as sorghum grown for sirup, broomcorn, other berries, etc., the value of which
is not given for 1934; for this reason, and also because these minor crops are not strictly comparable for both years, they were
excluded from totals to make values and acreages comparable for 1929 and 1934.
"Acreage of annual legumes grown alone (acreage grown with companion crops excluded to avoid duplication when computing
totals); value comprises all annual legumes — grown alone and with other crops, both harvested for grain and for hay. fcgj
tAcreage of vegetables for both years includes vegetables grown for sale only, while value includes all vegetables for sale and
home use, the latter value being 70,799 in 1934 and 98, 465 thousand dollars in 1929.
Source: U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. VI: Agricultural Statistics; 1937, Table 124, p. 104, and 1938, Table 333,
p. 242. Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United Slates, 1930, Agriculture, Tables 85-144.
sale occupied 3.6 of the acreage and accounted for 9.2 percent of values.
In addition, the value of vegetables grown for home use amounted to
almost $70,800,000, bringing vegetables to 13.3 percent of total values.
Since no acreage was returned for vegetables grown for home use, the ratio
cannot be computed. Legumes came near an even balance, for with 7.8
percent of crop acreage they accounted for 6.1 percent of gross values.
Here again the figures furnish difficulty, for acreage is returned for annual
legumes grown alone, while values include legumes grown with companion
crops. All other hay and sorghums occupied 9.5 percent of the acreage and
returned 4.8 percent of the gross value, in contrast with fruits and straw-
berries whose share of 2.7 percent acreage returned 5.7 percent of values.
In relating these figures to the amount of livestock on southern farms,
we have followed the device of reducing all types to comparable units in
terms of the amount of feed consumed. In 1935 it can be computed that
there were something over 83.5 million livestock units on United States
farms. Of these 34 percent were in the Middle States and 19.8 percent in
the Northwest (Table 45). The Southeast had the next highest propor-
tion, 17.4 percent. When the figures are reduced to units per farm the
region falls in the lowest rank with only 5.7 livestock units per farm as
compared with 12.3 for the Nation, 24.2 for the Northwest, 16 for the Far
West, and 15.9 for the Middle States. Table 46 shows the division of
livestock among the regions and indicates how they are reduced to com-
182
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 124. Acreage and Value of Individual Crops as Percentage of
Acreage and Value of All Crops, Southeast, 1929 and 1934
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ACREAGE
n 1 1 r
PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL VALUE
SO
CORN
COTTON
HAY
a SORGHUMS
OTHER
CEREALS
ANNUAL
LEGUMES
VEGETABLES
TOBACCO
SUGAR CANE
40
30 20
PERCENT
20 30
PERCENT
Source: See Table 44.
Table 45. Summary of Livestock Units on Farms, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1935
Area
All livestock
units
Percent
distribution
Livestock
units per
farm
Area
All livestock
units
Percent
distribution
Livestock
units per
farm
United States. . .
Southeast
83,550,499
7,062,678
14,561,499
100.0
8.6
17.4
12.3
9.9
5.7
Southwest
Middle States. . . .
Northwest
Far West
12,075,639
28,434,415
16,565,084
4,849,800
14.4
34.0
19.8
5.8
15.6
15.9
24.2
16.0
Note: For method see footnote to Table 46.
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. I, Table 3; Chap. V, Tables 5,8, 9, 10, 13, 16, 21, 23, 24.
parable units. The table shows that much of the Southeast's strength must
be attributed to its 3,680,000 horses and mules rather than to dairy and
beef cattle. The area is notably lacking in sheep, and should produce more
swine and poultry than at present.
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 183
Table 46. Livestock on Farms, United States and the
Six Major Regions, 1935
Livestock
Number and units
United
States
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle
States
Northwest
Far West
D. C.
Horses and Mules ....
Livestock units (x 1) . . .
Dairy Cows (number) .
Livestock units (x 1.1). .
Livestock units (x 0.25).
OtherCattle* (number)
Livestock units (x 0.52).
Hogs (number)
Livestock units (x 0.23).
Sbeep (number)
Livestock units (x 0.17).
Goats (number)
Livestock units (x 0.17).
Turkeys (number)
Livestock units (x 0.05).
Chickens (Thousands) .
Livestock units (x 0.01).
16,676,010
16,676,010
24,581,669
27,039,836
16,116,819
4,029,205
27,585,921
14,344,679
37,212,967
8,558,982
48,357,506
8,220,776
4,093,441
695,885
5,381,912
269,096
371,603
3,716,030
1,126,671
1,126,671
3,503,151
3,853,466
825,903
206,476
1,381,824
718,548
1,461,297
336,098
1,675,208
284,785
34,601
5,882
413,236
20,662
51,009
510,090
3,683,904
3,683,904
4,099,686
4,509,655
2,532,016
633,004
4,360,808
2,267,620
9,236,268
2,124,342
2,498,101
424,677
650,853
110,645
847,232
42,362
76,529
765,290
2,497,983
2,497,983
2,092,731
2,302,004
2,966,718
741,680
6,636,757
3,451,114
2,245,975
516,574
10,067,081
1,711,404
2,833,296
481,660
1,112,799
55,640
31,758
317,580
5,266,213
5,266,213
10,195,517
11,215,069
4,725,251
1,181,313
6,178,952
3,213,055
19,011,655
4,372,681
9,729,769
1,654,061
263,003
44,711
1,072,235
53,612
143,370
1,433,700
3,466,732
3,466,732
3,512,946
3,864,241
4,213,682
1,053,420
6,914,813
3,595,703
4,423,049
1,017,301
17,871,199
3,038,104
103,544
17,602
1,097,427
54,871
45,711
457,110
634,348
634,348
1,177,173
1,294,890
853,077
213,269
2,112,551
1,098,527
832,912
191,570
6,516,132
1,107,742
208,143
35,385
838,978
41,949
23,212
232,120
159
159
465
511
172
43
216
112
1,811
416
16
3
1
5
14
140
Total Units ....
83,550,499
7,062,678
14,561,499
12,075,639
28,434,415
16,565,084
4,849,800
1,384
•Heifers 1 year old and under 2, steers and bulls 1 year old and over, and beef cows.
Note: Animals converted to livestock units on the basis of their feed requirements as follows: One horse or mule— 1 unit; one
dairy cow— 1.1 units; one calf under 1 year— 0.25 units; other cattle— 0.52 units; one hog— 0.23 units; one sheep or goat— 0.17
units; one turkey— 0.05 units; one chicken— 0.01 units (method adapted from O. E. Baker, Graphic Summary of Farm Animals
and Animal Products, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, Miscellaneous Publication, No. 269, 1939, p. 4).
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. V, Tables 5, 8, 9, 10, 13, 16, 21, 23, 24.
From 1929 to 1934 Table 44 shows the region saw decreases in the
acreage of all crops where gross values were in excess of proportionate
acreage requirements except vegetables and fruits. Cotton's share of total
acreage decreased from 36 to 22 percent, its contribution to total value
from 44 to 32 percent. Tobacco's share declined from 2.8 to 1.8 percent of
total acreage but price changes were such that tobacco increased its propor- ,
tion of total value from 10.6 to 13 percent. In the higher value crops, vege-
tables (including potatoes) increased their share of the total acreage from
2.6 to 2-6 percent but maintained 13.3 percent of gross values, while fruits
including strawberries, increased from 2.6 to 2.7 percent of acreage. Sugar-
cane also increased from 0.5 to 0.7 percent. Among the crops of lower
values, corn increased its acreage from 37.4 to 44.3 percent of the total,
and its value from 17.7 to 20.6 percent. Hay and sorghum acreage in-
creased from 7.7 to 9.5 percent, all cereals except corn from 6.5 to 7.8 per-
cent, and annual legumes from 4.2 to 7.8 percent. Proportionate value in-
creases from these crops did not compensate for the loss of cotton values.
During this period cultivated acreage increased slightly from 59.5 million
to over 61 million, but gross crop values declined from 2 billion to 1.5 bil-
lion dollars. This represents the changes from high to low value crops as -
well as the decline in the price level. The trend to legumes and feed cover
1 84 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 47. Change in Acreage of All Crops Harvested for
Feed, Human Food, and Other Human Needs, Southeast,
1929-1934, 1934-1939, 1929-1939
Crops
(Estimated)
Acreage in crops
1929
1,000 Acres
1934
1,000 Acres
1939
1,000 Acres
Percentage change
in acreage
1929-
1934
1934-
1939
1929-
1939
All Crops.
Feed Crops.
Corn, all purposes
Oats, barley, rye, mixed grains
Sorghums, all except for syrup
Hay (excl. annual legumes and sorghums) .
Legumes
Food Crops .
Wheat
Rice
Potatoes, Irish and sweet. . . .
Vegetables harvested for sale .
Fruits, berries, nuts
Sugar cane
Other Crops.
Cotton. .
Tobacco.
59,546
3/, 037
22,260
1,694
203
4,397
2,483
5,582
1,612
552
900
643
1,580
295
22,927
21,260
1,667
61,117
39,568
27,084
1,929
518
5,306
4,731
7,084
2,317
500
1,289
921
1,654
403
14,465
13,346
1,119
61,015
41,064
25,880
2,346
291
6,700
5,847
6,212
1,933
560
1,020
744
1,586
369
13,739
12,050
1,689
2.6
27.5
21.
13.
155
20
92
26.9
43.7
- 9.4
-36.9
-37.2
-32.9
- 0.2
3.8
- 4.4
21.6
-43.8
26.3
23.6
-12.3
-16.6
12.0
-20.9
-19.2
- 4.1
- 8.3
- 5.0
- 9.7
50.9
2.5
32.3
16.3
38.5
43.3
52.7
135.5
11.3
19.9
1.4
13.3
15.7
0.4
25.1
-40.1
-43.3
1.3
Note: In addition to the total for all crops given here there was an acreage (amounting to about 1 percent of the total) planted
in miscellaneous minor crops which is not comparable for the two years and therefore had to be omitted. Acreage of crops har-
vested is generally somewhat larger than "crop land harvested" since two or more crops may be harvested from the same land
in a given year.
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Agriculture, Vol. IV, Chapter 11; United States Census of Agriculture, 1935'
Vol. Ill, Chapter VI; Sixteenth Census of the United Slates, 1940, Agriculture, First and Second Series, State Summaries.
crops went over into increased values of livestock products — a figure not
yet represented in our crop analysis.
The new balance between food, feed, and staple cash crops has been
largely brought about by the program of the A.A.A. Table 47 represents
an attempt to compare the changes in (1) staple, (2) food and (3) feed
crops in the Southeast from 1929- 1934. It shows that although the abso-
lute increase in feed crops was greater, the relative increases for food and
feed crops were practically equal. Acreage in all crops increased one and
a half million from 1929 to 1934. A retraction of almost 8.5 million acres
in the staple cash crops of tobacco and cotton was offset by an increase of
over 8.5 million acres in feed crops including corn for all purposes. In
addition there was an increase of 1.5 million acres in food crops, mainly
in land devoted to wheat, potatoes, and vegetables. Among foods, only
rice showed a decline. The greatest total increases were found in corn (4.8
million acres) and legumes (2.2 million acres). Percentage increases were
greatest in sorghum, 1555 annual legumes, 935 wheat, 44 ; potatoes and
vegetables, 43; sugarcane, 375 and corn, 22 percent. The acreage released
by cotton and tobacco was about equal to that gained by feed crops.
Table 48 shows how the extent to which the region's decline in acreage
devoted to staple crops from 1929 to 1934 can be accounted for by the
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 185
Table 48. Estimated Number of Acres Retired Under the Provisions of
the Agricultural Adjustment Act, United States
and Southeast, 1934
Total
Corn
Wheat
Cotton
Tobacco
Area
Acres
Per-
cent of
total
Acres
Per-
cent of
total
Acres
Per-
cent of
total
Acres
Per-
cent of
total
Acres
Per-
cent of
total
United States
Southeast
35,767,899
8,831,685
138,826
719,765
761,838
1,230,929
62,058
425,868
617,769
1,318,171
1,471,064
1,352,098
733,299
100.0
24.7
12,655,986
516,020
45,000
32,000
20,000
9,500
17,000
140,000
172,900
30,800
3,700
39,500
5,620
100.0
4.1
7,829,986
67,717
32,114
3,297
627
20,958
10,449
272
100.0
0.9
14,585,181
7,669,531
23,440
499,697
712,998
1,198,657
43,280
5,248
391,591
1,287,280
1,467,364
1,312,297
727,679
100.0
52.6
696,746
578,417
38,272
184,771
28,840
22,145
1,778
259,662
42,829
91
29
100.0
83.0
Virginia
North Carolina ....
South Carolina ....
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Louisiana
Source: U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, Agricultural Adjustment, 1933-35, a Report of Administration of the Agricultural Adjust-
ment Act, p. 46.
acreage retirement program of the A. A. A. Thus for the more than 7.9
million acres dropped out of cotton from 1929 to 1934, the records show-
that the A.A.A. retired 7.7 million cotton acres in 1934. For the 548,000
acres dropped from tobacco production, the A.A.A. in 1934 retired 578,000
tobacco acres, mainly in Kentucky and North Carolina. In food and feed
crops great gains were made in spite of some retirement of corn and wheat
acreage. Wheat increased by 705,000 acres although the A.A.A. retired
67,000 acres from wheat production in the Southeast in 1935. Similarly,
corn increased by 4.8 million acres although the A.A.A. retired half a mil-
lion corn acres. In all, the Southeast had 8.8 million acres on which sub-
sidies were paid for retirement from commercial production. This repre-
sented 83 percent of the tobacco acreage, 53 percent of the cotton acreage,
and only 5 percent of the corn and wheat acreage retired. The Southeast
had one-fourth (24.7 percent) of the total farm land retired by the A.A.A.
in the Nation.
The increases in food and feed crops are not fully explained until we
show how they carried over into increased livestock production. From
1930 to 1935 Table 49 shows that livestock units on Southeastern farms
increased by 10 percent. The only losses of the period were shown by
sheep, turkeys, and workstock. Horses and mules continued their down-
ward trend with an 8.6 percent decrease, turkeys showed a loss of 5.9 per-
cent, while sheep decreased by one-third. The greatest livestock unit gains
were registered by dairy cows whose numbers increased by almost a mil-
lion, 25.9 percent. Calves increased by 34.1 percent, and beef cattle in-
creased 35.5 percent. Poultry production showed important gains, 20.9 per-
1 86 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 49. Number and Percentage Change in Livestock and Estimated
Livestock Units on Farms, Southeast, 1930- 1935
Livestock
Horses and mules
Swine, all ages
Dairy cows
Calves (under 1 yr.)
Other cattle
Sheep (all ages)
Goats (all ages)
Turkeys*(over 3 mo. old)
Chickens (over 3 mo. old)
in thousands
Total .
Number of animals
1930
4,033,128
y, 070, 964
3,255,285
1,887,610
3,218,047
3,750,172
477,661
900,032
63,282
1935
3,683,904
9,236,268
4,099,686
2,532,016
4,360,808
2,498,101
650,853
847,232
76,529
Change (1930-35)
Number
■ 349,224
165,304
844,401
644,406
1,142,761
1,252,071
173,192
- 52,800
13,247
Percent
- 8.6
1.8
25.9
34.1
35.5
-33.4
36.2
- 5.9
20.9
Number livestock units
1930
4,033,128
2,086,322
3,580,814
471,902
1,673,384
637,529
81,202
45 ,002
632,820
13,242,103
1935
3,683,904
2,124,342
4,509,655
633,004
2,267,620
424,677
110,645
42,362
765,290
14,561,499
Change (1930-35)
Number Percent
349,224
38,020
928,841
161,102
594,236
212,852
29,443
2,640
132,470
1,319,396
- 8.6
1.8
25.9
34.1
35.5
-33.4
36.2
- S.9
20.9
10.0
•In 1935 the number of turkeys over 3 months was listed, while in 1929, the census enumerated the number of turkeys raised,
which is 1 818 247 In order to arrive at an estimate of turkeys over 3 months old in 1930, the ratio of chickens raised in 1929
to those over 3 months old in 1930 was computed and thif ratio (0.495) was assumed to be the same as the ratio for turkeys.
This estimate is very rough and can only be accepted because the difference both in number of turkeys and in corresponding
livestock units is very small for the 2 years and does not influence the results.
Note: Animal units [computed here] are based on feed requirements, on the following basis: a horse or mule equals 1 unit; dairy
cow— 1.1 unit; steer— 0.52 units; calf— 0.25 units; hog— 0.23 units; sheep or goat— 0.17 units; chicken— 0.01 unit; turkey— 0.05
units (Source: O. E. Baker, Graphic Summary of Farm Animals and Animal Products, p. 4).
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 5.
Table 50. Estimate of Feed Rations in Terms of Corn and Hay
with Corresponding Livestock Units
Livestock
Horse or mule
Dairy cow
Calf (under 1 yr.)
Other cattle
Hog (all ages)
Sheep (goat)
Chicken (3 mo. and older).
Turkey (3 mo. and older) .
Daily Ration
Corn
(pounds)
11.0
10.0
1
4
3
1
0
6
0
0.15
0.75
Hay
(pounds)
12.0
20.0
6.0
11.0
4.4
Yearly Amount
Corn
(bushels)
71.7
65.2
11.7
26.0
23.4
6.5
1.0
5.0
Hay
(tons)
2.20
3.6
1.1
2.0
0.8
Corn equiv.
(bushels)
99.0
110.0
25.5
51.0
23.4
17.0
1.0
5.0
Livestock
units
1.00
1.10
0.25
0.52
0.23
0.17
0.01
0.05
Note: Livestock units for all animals except turkeys estimated by O. E. Baker, Graphic Summary of Farm Animals and Animal
Products, 1931, p. 98, and 1939, p. 4, on the basis of feed requirements.
Standard horse ration estimated by Z. R. Pettet, The Farm Horse, p. 60.
Rations for other animals computed on the basis of data given in "Food and Life," Yearbook of Agriculture, 1939; rations re-
adjusted to take care of animals of ages given above and to comply with Baker s livestock units estimated on the basis ot teed
requirements.
Conversion factors used: 1 bushel of corn equals 56 lbs; 1 ton equals 2,000 lbs 1 lb. of hay equivalent in feed value to 0.35
lbs. of corn, or 1 ton of hay equivalent to 12.5 bushels of corn.— "Food and Life, p. 558.
cent, reaching the total of 76 million. There were more than 9 million swine
on southern farms, but this number remained practically stationary during
the period. Although the number of goats increased 36.2 percent, they re-
mained comparatively unimportant except in special areas. Columns 5
to 8 of Table 49 reduce farm animals to equivalent units based on the
amount of feed required. This process, based on corn and hay rations, is
explained in Tables 46 and 50.
CHANGES SINCE 1934
The year 1934 marked a high point in the acreage devoted to food and
feed production. The 1940 figures indicate that this level has been held.
Table 51 shows that during the 1930's, while the Nation was decreasing
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 187
Table 51. Acreage and Production of Specified Crops Harvested, and
Percentage Change, United States and Southeast, 1929- 1939
United States
Southeast
Specified crop
Number
Percent-
age
change
1929-39
Number
Percent-
age
change
1929-39
1929
1934
1939
1929
1934
1939
All corn harvested
acreage (acres)
97,740,740
87,476,444
86,989,626
-11.0
22,259,959
27,084,243
25,879,784
16.3
Cotton production (run-
ning square bales)
Tobacco (acres
harvested)
43,227,488
14,574,405
1,888,365
1*456,510
61,999,908
26,753,697
9,472,022
1,237,117
1,021,449
41,943,387
22,811,004
11,481,300
1,853,230
1,699,728
50,490,296
-47.2
-21.2 -
- 1.9
16.7
-18.6
21,260,7%
8,929,792
1,667,597
1,234,387
1,612,223
13,346,971
6,142,086
1,119,888
907,884
2,316,996
12,049,801
7,064,066
1,689,023
1,520,774
1,919,468
-43.3
-20.9
1.3
23.2
19.1
Tobacco production
(thousands of pounds) .
Wheat threshed
(acres harvested)
All hay
33,466,025
24,588,766
29,933,108
-10.6
396,478
440,007
1,013,176
155.5
67,827,899
68,624,510
65,979,445
- 2.7
6,240,142
9,572,355
10,249,907
64.3
•All hay excluding sorghums but including annual legumes harvested for hay.
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 6, Tables 6, 10, 13, 30, 40, 43; Sixteenth Census of the United States,
J940, Agriculture, preliminary press release of April 7, 1941.
its food and feed acreages, the Southeast made notable increases. Thus
while the Nation decreased acreage devoted to corn by n percent, to wheat
by 1 8.6 percent, to hay by 2.7 percent, to oats by 10.6 percent, the South-
east showed acreage increases in these crops of 16, 19, 64, and 155 percent
respectively. According to the figures, from 1934 to 1939 corn and
wheat showed the only declines in production in the region.
The percentage distribution of total values and total acreage are shown
in Figure 125. In spite of discrepancies due to changes in the census, the
distribution can be compared with those of 1929 and 1934 (Figure 124).
Corn and cotton lost in proportionate acreage and value while hay, forage,
and legumes showed proportionately greater increases in acreage than in
values. The wonder crop was again tobacco which on 2.7 percent of total
crop acreage accounted for 15.3 percent of total gross values.
Table 47 presents acreage changes during the period in terms of
livestock feed, human food, and the staple money crops, cotton and tobacco.
In this analysis the acreage devoted to the main money crops declined 40. 1
percent from 1929 to 1939 with cotton bearing all the brunt since tobacco
showed a slight increase. Crops for human consumption increased 11.3 per-
cent, large gains from 1929 to 1934 being reduced by some losses in the
1 934-1 939 period. The interesting question here has to do with the pro-
portion of the southern corn crop used for human food. It increased from
22 to almost 26 million acres. If all corn grown could be counted among
livestock feed crops, the total acreage gained in this division would amount
to 32.3 percent. Gains made in the first half of the decade were held for all
crops except corn and sorghum. Legumes increased 135.5 percent.
N
1 88 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 125. The Acreage and Value of Individual Crops as Percentage
of Acreage and Value of All Crops, Southeast, 1939
PERCENTAGE i )F TOTAL
SO
f ERCENTA IE OF TO AL VALl E
CORN FOR GRAIN
COTTON-
LINT a 9EED
HAY A FORAGE
LEGUMES a SEEDS
OTHER CEREALS
VEGETABLES
TOBACCO
FRUITS a NUTS
OTHER
30 20
PERCENT
50
Source: See Table 51 and Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, 1940, Agriculture, First, Second, and
Third Series, United States and State Summaries.
Table 52. Percentage Change in Population and Number of Livestock,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930- 1940
Item
Population
Horses and colts . .
Mules and colts . .
Cattle and calves.
Hogs and pigs
Sheep and lambs..
Cows milked
Chickens
United
States
7.2
-24.6
-28.2
11.8
3.8
- 4.0
3.8
-10.8
Northeast
5.1
-18.3
-16.1
4.2
18.5
-29.2
1.6
1.7
Southeast
10.6
- 0.4
-11.5
33.1
45.1
1.2
12.2
1.6
Southwest
7.7
-19.3
-50.0
11.9
33.1
28.3
12.5
- 6.5
Middle
States
5.2
-21.2
-36.5
16.7
6.6
6.6
4.9
-13.7
Northwest
.4
-40.3
-60.6
- 5.4
-51.9
-11.8
-11.5
-25.4
Far West
14.5
-25.1
-54.3
16.7
36.9
-34.6
6.8
-20.8
onths old in 1940; all other livestock over 3 months old at
Note: Chickens and pigs over 3 months old in 1930 and over 4 mon
each enumeration.
For sources and specification of ages of animals classified see Table No. 53.
Source: United StaUs Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap V, Tables 5, 8, 10, 12, 13. 16, 24; Suteentk Census of the United
States, 19 W, Agriculture, press releases March 29, April 2, 1941.
The changes in hay, forage, and legumes went over into livestock pro-
duction where the Southeast made notable gains in every field except work-
stock. Table 52 shows that the region led the Nation in proportionate gains
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 189
Figure 126. Percentage of Farms without Milk Cows,
United States, 1939
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, i94o, Agriculture First Series, United States Summary,
lafales V, VIII.
Figure 127. Percentage of Farms without Hogs and Pigs,
United States, 1939
Source: See Figure 126.
190
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 53. Specified Classes of Livestock on Farms and Ranches and Milk
Produced, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930 and 1940
Livestock and
product
Year
United
States
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle
States
Northwest
Far West D. C
Horses and colts over
3 mo8. old
Percent all farms
1940
1940
3,148,656
51.6
362,918
57.3
629,930
27.9
369,508
56.8
1,224,463
73.2
446,977
74.4
114,837
41.1
23
1930
1940
3,383,574 1
0,086,971
,073,048
876,926
,212,374
,207,982
1,463,118
1,180,271
5,104,602
4,022,436
3,910,148
2,335,104
620,140
464,185
144
67
Percent change
1930-1940
-24.6
1,845,217
30.3
-18.3
45,188
7.1
- .4
1,277,384
56.5
-19.3
276,995
42.6
-21.2
179,285
10.7
-40.3
51,337
8.5
-25.1
15,017
5.4
Mules and colts over
3 mos. old:
1940
1940
11
1930
1940
5,353,950
3,844,560
112,688
94,567
2,802,264
2,479,940
1,382,765
691,521
652,001
414,188
325,069
128,175
79,134
36,135
29
34
Percent change
1930-1940
-28.2
4,843,917
79.5
-16.1
465,647
73.5
5,197,846
5,416,928
-11.5
1,690,668
74.8
-50.0
548,493
84.3
-36.5
1,458,833
87.2
-60.6
512,527
85.3
-54.3
167,734
60.0
Cattle and calves over
3 mos. old:
Farms reporting
1940
1940
IS
1930
1940
54,250,300
60,674,734
7,103,708
9,457,226
8,898,598
9,957,580
17,344,165
20,247,894
12,368,630
11,702,012
3,336,573
3,892,257
780
837
Percent change
1930-1940
11.8
3,766,675
61.8
4.2
239,824
37.8
33.1
1,587,448
70.3
11.9
384,483
59.1
16.7
1,139,070
68.1
- 5.4
347,433
57.8
16.7
68,408
24. S
Hogs and ties over 3
mo6. old .
Farms reporting
1940
1940
9
1930
1940
32,793,628
34,037,253
1,125,304
1,333,422
5,830,683
8,460,994
1,783,007
2,372,512
16,610,821
17,701,041
6,776,815
3,256,584
665,981
911,700
1,017
1,000
Percent change
1930-1940
3.8
584,935
9.6
18.5
47,560
7.5
45.1
76,491
3.4
33.1
52,989
8.1
6.6
299,840
17.9
-51.9
89,084
14.8
36.9
18,970
6.8
6,321,355
4,131,188
Sheep and lambs
over 6 mos. old:
Farms reporting
Percent all farms
1940
1940
1
1930
1940
41,780,146
40,129,261
1,694,189
1,199,312
2,138,081
2,164,181
8,526,392
10,938,375
7,231,182
7,706,794
15,868,941
13,989,345
6
66
Percent change
1930-1940
-4.0
4,663,701
76.0
-29.2
455,525
71.9
1.2
1,623,780
71.9
28.3
516,617
79.4
6.6
1,418,734
84.8
-11.8
490,490
81.6
-34.6
158,537
56.7
Cows milked: _
1940
1940
18
1930
1940
21,124,221
21,936,556
3,265,356
3,316,536
3,255,285
3,653,800
1,695,022
1,906,947
8,745,491
9,174,404
3,059,827
2,706,630
1,102,776
1,177,677
464
562
Number
Percent change
1930 1940
3.8
11,052,023
11,508,244
523
525
90
87
5,150,055
84.5
1.6
1,963,942
2,060,409
601
621
52
52
463,891
73.2
12.2
1,291,434
1,428,698
397
391
51
51
1,991,921
88.2
12.5
707,455
798,794
417
419
78
82
566,181
87.1
4.9
4,825,566
5,069,218
552
553
142
142
1,440,349
86.1
-11.5
1,490,005
1,296,688
487
479
202
175
506,378
84.2
6.8
773,119
853,890
701
725
93
87
181,308
64.8
Milk produced:
(thousands of
1930
1940
1930
1940
1930
1940
1940
1940
504
547
Milk produced per
Milk produced per
capita population.
Chickens:
(over 3 mos. old)*'
Percent all farms ....
27
Number (thousands
Number (thousands
1930
) 1940
378,878
337,949
47,381
48,190
63,282
64,289
34,534
32,275
150,159
129,622
56,377
42,060
27,132
21,495
13
18
Percent change
1930-1940
-10.8
1.7
1.6
- 6.5
-13.7
-25.4
-20.8
•Pigs over 3 months old in 1930 and pigs over 4 months old in 1940.
**Chickens over 3 months old in 1930 and over 4 months old in 1940. _
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States. 1940. Agriculture press release of March 29 and April 2, 1941. UnUed SUUts
Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. V, Tables 5, 8, 13. 10, 12, 16, 24.
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 1 9 1
in cattle, hogs, chickens, and, next to the Southwest, in cows milked. The
Southwest led in sheep and lambs. The greatest losses of any region were
experienced in the Northwest.
Questions of the adequacy of home-grown supplies on southern farms
are more pertinent than ever because of the decreased cotton acreage and
income since 1930. The census figures for 1939 (Table 53) indicate that
cattle were found on 75 percent of the region's farms, milk cows on 72
percent, hogs and pigs on 70 percent, and chickens on 88 percent. These
figures, which indicate that from 12 to 30 percent of our farms are still lack-
ing in needed farm animals, are worthy of examination in greater detail.
The presence of milk cows is possibly the farm's greatest contribution
to adequate nutrition in the family living. The proportion of farms with-
out milk cows in 1939 was less than a fourth (24 percent) the country over,
ranging from 10 percent in Iowa to 62.8 percent in Arizona (Figure 126).
The Middle States, where 84.8 percent, and the Northwest, where 81.6
percent of the farms had cows, led the procession. The Far West with only
56.7 percent lagged. In both the Southeast and Northeast cows were re-
ported on 71.9 percent of the farms. In the Southeast, the range was from
Kentucky where only 19 out of 100 farms lacked milk cows to Florida
where 57 out of each 100 farms lacked cows.
The extent to which farmers try to provide their own meat supply may
be indicated by the proportion of farms having hogs, pigs, and chickens. In
the Nation, 38.2 percent of all farms are without pigs, ranging from 14.9
percent in Iowa to 91 percent lacking pigs in Connecticut (Figure 127).
Less than 25 percent of the farms in the Far West and 38 percent of the
farms in the Northeast grow any pork. Other regions had pork on from
58 to 59 percent of the farms, but the Middle States with 68 percent was
exceeded by the Southeast with 70.3 percent. The range in the region was
from Georgia, where only 23.7 percent of the farms lacked pigs, to Florida,
where 48.4 percent were lacking. The region leads but it should do bet-
ter. Pork is a favorite food, easily raised and needed on the small tenant
farms. Chickens, however, are more popular and rightly so. Only 15.2
percent of the country's farms are without them, ranging from a lack of
only 7.1 percent in Iowa to a 55.7 percent deficiency in Arizona (Figure
128). Again the Far West where only 64.8 percent of the farms have poul-
try and the Northeast with 73.2 percent made the poorest showing. The
Southeast with chickens on 88.2 percent of all farms made the best show-
ing. Given the region's climate and diet needs, its rate should be 100 per-
cent. Again Florida, with 31.4 percent of its farms without poultry, made
the lowest showing in the region.
The vegetable garden, most popular support of the living of the farm
192
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 128. Percentage of Farms without Poultry,
United States, 1939
Source: See Figure 126.
family, was reported by 79 percent of all United States farms and con-
tributed an average of $44 worth of vegetables to the family larder (Fig-
ure 129). The poorest States were those in dry and subhumid areas, and
the best States were in the Southeast and Northeast. The States ranged
from Utah, where only 25 percent of all farms had gardens, to Virginia
and West Virginia, with gardens on over 90 percent of the farms. Least
values were returned in Nebraska, Kansas, and South Dakota 5 the highest
in Rhode Island and the Virginias.
These figures probably record the pre-war high-water mark attained by
the region in pursuit of the doctrine that abundance like charity should begin
at home. They clearly show the need for further development. One-
fourth to one-third of our farms lack essential animals, nor is there any
reason to assume that family needs are actually met on all farms reporting
poultry, pork, milk cows, and gardens. Moreover, population increased
by 10 percent in the Southeast from 1930 to 1940, and since the region has
never supplied its own markets, it seems doubtful that we have experienced
any per capita advances in food and feed production. This can be verified
for milk production by reference to the figures from 1930 to 1940 (Table
53). While the number of milk cows increased by 12.2 percent, and the
amount of milk produced increased from 1,291 million gallons to 1,429
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM
Figure 129. Percentage of Farms Reporting Garden Vegetables
Grown for Household Use,* United States, 1939
193
*Not including Irish and sweet potatoes.
Source: Tabulations from the Census in The Land and the People on the Land, U. S. Department of
Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, October, 1941. P
million, the per capita production remained constant at the low level of 51
gallons, and the production per cow actually declined from 397 to 391
gallons a year. The region's figures were the lowest in the Nation. Figure
130 shows that in southern States few farmers purchased stock feed, rang-
ing from 16.9 percent of all farms in South Carolina to 54.9 percent in
Virginia. In the United States in 1939, 54.8 percent of the farms bought
feed averaging $219 per farm. In the Southeast only 37 percent were re-
turned as purchasing stock feed. As the Southeast increases its livestock,
however, it must plan for increased feed production if the enterprise is to*
show a profit.
Commercial fertilizer has long been regarded as an inadequate substi-
tute for the manure and cover crops that accompany livestock production.
With the South's long history of clean cultivation and soil erosion, we
should not expect our slight increases in livestock to have made much
change by 1939. Figure 131 shows that, as compared with the 38.3 percent
of the Nation's farms which purchased commercial fertilizer, well over 60
percent of the Southeastern farms made such purchases. Purchases ranged
from one-fourth of the farms in Arkansas to 92 percent in South Carolina,
where the cost of fertilizer averaged $120 per farm as compared with $84
for the Nation. The fertilizer bill of the Southeast still exceeds that of the
rest of the nation.
i94 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 130. Percentage of Farms Reporting Feed Purchased,
United States, 1939
Source: See Figure 129.
Figure 131. Percentage of Farms Reporting Purchase of
Commercial Fertilizer, United States, 1939
:: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, Second Series, U. S. Summary, Table 26.
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 195
There have been large increases in the production of hay, forage, and
other stock feed, but the amount produced is still low in the Southeast. If
all the legume hay grown in the Southeast should be fed to cattle and work-
stock, it would amount to only 0.3 tons per animal unit. Moreover, the
increases in legume hay have been more than offset by the decline in cotton-
seed products once available for stock feed. The average decline in cotton-
seed meal and hulls for the period 193 3- 193 8 has been equivalent to an
annual loss of 276 million bushels of corn, a 9.5 percent decline in feed con-
tent over the 192 8- 193 2 average. It may be concluded, therefore, that the
Southeast is not yet taking full advantage of its opportunity to grow feed.5
An adequate livestock program for the Southeast remains a thing of
the future. Production has not yet met the needs of the people on the farm,
and the increases from 1930 to 1940 hardly did more than keep pace with
the actual increase in population. Counting the loss of cottonseed products,
the region will have far to go. Chickens still average 35 per farm, 30 per-
cent of the farms lack milk cows, and the total per capita production of
pork, butter, and milk had shown little or no increase by 1940.
UTILIZATION OF PASTURE AND WOODLAND
In line with these trends, it is worth while to estimate what increased
utilization of pasture and forest land may mean for better support of the
farm population.
With its small farms and small crop acreage, the Southeast has surpris-
ing resources in its forest and grazing land. In 1940 six out of every ten
acres in the Southeast were in forested land, public or private. In its south-
ern area, the United States Forest survey found 202 of the 461 million
acres of the Nation's commercial forest land in 1938. In its 31 units in 9
States the Southern Forest Survey found 59 percent of all land in forests,
3$ percent agricultural, and 6 percent waste and subject to other uses. Only
half (52.3 percent) of the Southeast's nearly 325,000,000 acres were in
farm land.6
A great handicap in the South has been and remains the lack of im-
proved pastures essential to the economical production of livestock. The
discovery of an all-purpose grass for the South, such as timothy in the
Northeast, that will produce both hay and permanent pasture would be a
real boon.
Many types of improved pastures in the South are subject to climatic
injuries and require frequent artificial reseeding, planting or other cultural
encouragement. Their chief limitation is that they require better than
°J. B. Hutson, Changes in the Production of Feed Crops in the Cotton Belt. Talk before American
Farm Bureau Federation, New Orleans, December 12, 1 93 8.
Data from the Southern Forest Survey.
196 ALL THESE PEOPLE
average soils and occasional applications of fertilizer. Their grazing capac-
ity, however, is more than five times as great as that of the native range
and the rate of gain in live weight almost twice as rapid. The region still
has vast areas where an expansion in livestock is possible and desirable.
The Piedmont-Appalachian country is capable of producing ample stocks
of dairy products for southern markets, while the Coastal Plain offers
opportunity for the production of beef and other meat animals.
The forest range itself offers another resource for livestock: "At least
95 percent of the forest land in the South is privately owned. Much of it
is in the hands of large owners who are not especially interested in live-
stock production. In accordance with custom they tolerate grazing on their
forest lands by the livestock of numerous small farmers. The typical for-
est range is open, no permits are required, no fees are charged and often
no attempt is made to control fires set by the stock owners to benefit the
forage."7
In the few steps that have been taken, definite progress has been made
in improving conditions for southern cattle. Most outstanding has been the
elimination of the cattle-fever tick from most of the region. This work has
removed one discouraging obstacle to the wider use of improved strains in
breeding. Another worthwhile accomplishment has been the development
of the dairy industry, particularly in the upper Coastal Plains region. In
relatively limited local areas it has brought about the fencing and improve-
ment of pasture lands for controlled and intensive use. Superior forage and
feed plants have been introduced into the region through the experiment
stations.
The number of packing plants, creameries, milk processing and cheese
factories in the South is slowly increasing and, given encouragement and
opportunity, the region may some day become self-sufficient in the produc-
tion of livestock and livestock products.
FOREST LANDS
Most of the South's development in scientific forestry, multiple use,
and sustained yield will come in the large holdings of those interests best
able to provide the necessary capital and scientific management. From high
grade timber to naval stores, to thinning for pole and pulp wood, to graz-
ing, the Southeast with its cheap land and fast growing species offers the
greatest opportunities. Of major importance is the trend toward wood
utilization plants. In fact these are now increasing so rapidly that over-
TSee The Western Range, Section on Southern Forest Ranges, United States Congress, Senate Docu-
ment 199 (i936)» PP- 567-8o.
8 See E. L. Demon, Place of Forests in a Land Use Program for the South, Economics for Our Southern
Forests, Occasional papers 62, 59. Southern Forest Experiment Station (New Orleans, 1937)-
THE SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE CROP SYSTEM 197
cutting may result unless accompanied by (1) better forestry, (2) better
methods of cutting timber and sawing lumber to prevent waste of a large
proportion of the tree, (3) utilization of waste for pulp to replace use of
good timber trees for other purposes.
For the small farm-owner, woodlands offer a great and increasing re-
source. Many southern farmers have from 20 to 40 acres of woodland
adjacent to their crop acres. Each year farmers derive from this resource
several million dollars worth of forest products, some sold and others used
at home or in the interfarm trade.
The farmer's utilization of his woodlands is far from ideal. "Although
farmers cannot carry on work in the woods the entire year, they can add
considerably to their present and future incomes by taking a few simple
forestry measures, such as protecting their woods against fire and over-
grazing, by cutting their fuelwood from over-mature, suppressed, and de-
fective trees, by thinning growing stands to promote more rapid growth
of desirable trees, and by Shopping around' to get the best prices for their
stumpage or for forest products they cut themselves. Many farmers do
not know the value of their timber and have put distress timber on the
market simply because a small 'peckerwood' mill happened to be operating
in the vicinity."9
•E. L. Demon, Occasional Paper No. 59, Southern Forest Experiment Station (1937),
p. 7.
CHAPTER 14
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES
The discussion of livestock in the preceding chapter leads logically to
a treatment of work stock, still the basic power resource on southern farms.
In the feeding of work stock the problem of energy resources on the farm
is intimately related to the crops grown. Basic as it is to agriculture, the
question of farm power is no longer the simple alternative of manpower
versus animal power. In its wider aspects, this topic ranges from increased
use of gasoline-powered machinery to decreased use of human labor. More-
over the problem exceeds that of the comparable cost and efficiency of
horsedrawn and gasoline-powered equipment, for the acres released from
feed production go into the "surplus" production of staple crops and thus
operate to change price ratios. This fact in addition to mechanization de-
creases the demand for labor on the farm. Accordingly, the social and eco -
nomic changes connected with the decrease in farm horses are important
enough to warrant special analysis.
REPLACEMENT RATES OF WORK ANIMALS IN THE SOUTHEAST
The chief source of energy, next to human labor in the Southeast, has
long been the much abused mule. The region still shows the highest ratios
of work stock per 1,000 acres in crops, but the numbers of horses and mules
have been declining rapidly. Farm horses and mules increased steadily in
this country from 1850 until about 1920.1 Since then they have shown a
sharp decrease, first evident in the statistics from 1920 to 1930 and con-
tinued in the agricultural Census of 1935 and 1940.
Much importance attaches to these decreases in farm animals. Since
the explanation is to be found in the use of automotive power, these changes
serve as a rough index of increased mechanization in agriculture. The dis-
appearance of horses served to release acreage previously devoted to the
growing of feed and forage in a period when the effort was being made to
1 Z. R. Pettet, The Farm Horse, Bureau of the Census, 1933-
[I98]
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES 199
reduce the production of staple crops in favor of forage and cover crops.
With these trends in mind we shall review the changes in farm draft ani-
mals in the Southeast.
From 1920 to 1930, Table 54 indicates that over 6,250,000 horses
were lost from the Nation's farms, a decline of 31.7 percent. In the South-
east the proportionate decrease was greater, 43.7 percent. These decreases
continued from 1930 to 1935. During this period the Nation's farm horses
decreased 12.2 percent, the region's declined by 17.2 percent. The de-
crease in mules according to Table $5, was slight during the twenties when
the Southeast actually gained some 32,600 mules. By the next period the
decline in mules was evident, for the Nation lost 536,000, 10 percent of its
supply and the Southeast lost 4.9 percent. In round figures this meant a
total decrease in the Southeast of over 918,000 draft animals during the
1920's and another decrease of 349,224 from 1930-1935.
Table 54. Number of Horses on Farms and Ranches with Percentage
Decrease, United States and Southeast, 1 920-1 940
Number of Horses
Decrease Ik Number or Horses
1920-1930 1930-1935 1935-1940
Area
1920
1930
1935
1940
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
United States.
Southeast
North Carolina .
South Carolina.
Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama
19,767,161
2.176,850
312,465
171,436
77,517
100,503
38,570
382,442
317,921
130,462
214,852
251,926
178,756
13,510,839
1,226,046
203,174
86,716
30,497
37,325
21,300
247,955
175,375
64,840
102,677
137,747
118,440
11,857,850
1,015,173
162,633
66,716
20,420
25,180
17,976
209,641
140,621
49,593
76,508
124,527
121,358
10,909,745
1.221,798
165,461
75,565
21,139
35,696
20,432
242,310
176,739
62,341
109,205
168,096
144,814
6,256,322
950,804
109,291
84,720
47,020
63,178
17,270
134,487
142,546
65,622
112,175
114,179
60,316
31.7
43.7
35.0
49.4
60.7
62.9
44.8
35.2
44.8
50.3
52.2
45.3
33.7
1,652,989
210,873
40,541
20,000
10,077
12,145
3,324
38,314
34,754
15,247
26,169
13,220
+ 2,918
12.2
17.2
20.0
23.1
33.0
32.5
15.6
15.5
19.8
23.5
25.5
9.6
+2.5
948,105
+206,625
+ 2,828
+ 8,849
+ 719
+ 10,516
+ 2,456
+ 32,669
+ 36,118
+ 12,748
+ 32,697
+ 43,569
+ 23,456
8.0
+20.4
+ 1.7
+13.3
+ 3.5
+41.8
+13.7
+15.6
+25.7
+25.7
+42.7
+35.0
+19.3
Note: Number of horses includes horses of all ages as given by the census of January 1, 1920, on April 1, 1930, on January 1 1935
and an estimate of all on April 1, 1940. Omission of sign means decrease; plus means increase.
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 5, Table 5; Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Census of
Agriculture, The Farm Horse (1933); Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series. U. S. Summary
By 1940, 1,907,000 more draft animals had disappeared from the Na-
tion's farms — a loss of some 11.4 percent. This figure represented losses
in both horses and mules. The Southeast reversed its trends slightly, gain-
ing 22,000 draft animals. This increase of only 0.6 percent was due to the
fact that the region gained some 207,000 horses while it was losing 185,000
mules (Tables 54 and S5)-
The question is often asked whether the decline in farm work stock
will continue. The situation may aptly be compared with that obtaining
in any population whose numbers are being reduced. Inherent in the pres-
ent death and breeding rates of horses and mules are trends significantly
200
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 55. Number of Mules on Farms with Percentage Decrease,
United States and Southeast, 1 920-1 940
Number of Mules
Decrease In Number of Mules
1920-1930 1930-1935 1935-1940
Area
1920
1930
1935
1940
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
United States . . .
5,432,391
2,774,473
96,830
256,569
220,164
406,351
42,046
292,857
352,510
296,138
308,216
322,677
180,115
5.375,017
2,807,082
94,573
294,308
188,895
353,633
40,916
252,250
318,567
332,133
369,345
361,508
200,954
4,818,160
2,668,731
93,198
295,388
182,645
333,529
40,946
240,196
304,827
321,613
350,481
307,160
198,748
3,859,669
2,484,108
89,748
299,336
179,824
316,057
36,311
218,623
277,488
292,547
338,180
260,895
175,099
57,374
+ 32,609
2,257
+ 37,739
31,269
52,718
1,130
40,607
33,943
+ 35,995
+ 61,129
+ 38,831
+ 20,839
1.1
+ 1.2
2.3
+14.7
14.2
13.0
2.7
13.9
9.6
+12.2
+19.8
+ 12.0
+11.6
535,790
138,351
1,375
+ 1 ,080
6,250
20,104
+ 30
12,054
13,740
10,520
18,864
54,348
2,206
10.0
4.9
1.5
+ 0.4
3.3
5.7
+ 0.1
4.8
4.3
3.2
5.1
15.0
1.1
958,491
184,623
3,450
+ 3,948
2,821
17,472
4,635
21,573
27,339
29,066
12,301
46,265
23,649
19.9
6.9
3.7
North Carolina. . .
South Carolina. . .
+ 1.3
1.5
5.2
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
11.3
9.0
9.0
9.0
3.5
15.1
11.9
Note: Number of mules includes mules and mule colts of all ages as given by the census on January 1, 1920, on April 1, 1930,
on January 1, 1935 and an estimate of these on April 1, 1940; omission of sign means decrease; plus sign means increase.
Source: See Table 54.
below replacement. Z. R. Pettet writing in 1933 estimated that the birth
rate of horses and mules was only about three-sevenths replacements. Table
56 makes use of similar methods to indicate the situation, in the Southeast.
The ratio of horse and mule colts under one year to animals of all ages
multiplied by 100 gives an effective "breeding rate." This rough meas-
ure of the birth rate of animals is very important for forecasts of the work
stock that can be expected in the future. For horses the drop in this ratio
from 1920 to 1930 was from 6.06 to 3.70 for the United States and from
4.55 to 2.41 for the Southeast. Slightly higher breeding rates for horses
in 1935 indicated that the drop in the number of horses might level off in
the near future. While this indication was borne out in the 1940 figures
showing an increase in the number of horses in the Southeast in spite of the
continued decline in the Nation, breeding fell in both areas. In relation
to mules this index probably fails to represent the actual breeding situation.
Nevertheless the sharp decline in the ratio of year-old colts to all mules,
from 7.17 to 1. 1 5, gives an accurate picture of the oncoming mule supply.
In the Southeast this ratio declined from 3.59 in 1920 to .62 in 1935. By
1940 mules had suffered a further decline of 6.9 percent in the region, but
breeding rates had increased slightly.
Birth rates alone cannot give a complete picture of replacements.
Roughly speaking, replacement is achieved when the birth rate equals the
death rate of animals. It is necessary, therefore, to measure death rates
of draft animals as well as birth rates. In the case of animals, we have
already arrived at a measure of birth rate, but the death rate is unknown
for the obvious reason that deaths of work animals are not registered. We
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES
201
Table 56. Number of Horses and Mule Colts Under One Year of Age
with Ratio to Horses and Mules of All Ages, United States
and Southeast, 1920-1940
Item
Hones:
All ages
Colts under 1 yr. .
Ratio ^percent) . .
Mules:
All ages
Colts under 1 yr. .
Ratio (percent) . .
United States
January
1, 1920
19,767,161
1,198,236
6.06
5,432,391
389,279
7.17
January
1, 1930
13,383,574
494,762
3.70
5,353,950
81,376
1.52
January
1, 1935
11,857,850
548,972
4.63
4,818,160
55,483
1.15
January
1, 1940
10,086,971
401,495
3.98
3,844,560
49,840
1.30
Southeast
January
1, 1920
2,176,850
99,124
4.55
2,774,473
99,487
3.59
January
1, 1930
1,212,374
29,198
2.41
2,802,264
16,334
0.58
January
I, 1935
1,015,173
35,489
3.50
2,668,731
16,510
0.62
January
1, 1940
1,207,982
34,509
2.86
2,479,940
18,254
0.74
Note: Number of horses of all ages on January 1, 1930 estimated by subtracting number of colts under 3 months on April 1,
1930 from the total number of horses and colts on April 1, 1930; same procedure applied to estimate number of mules of all ages
on January 1, 1930. Number of colts under one year in 1930 estimated by taking the number of colts from 3 to 15 months as
enumerated on April 1, 1930. Number of colts under 1 in 1935 and 1940 obtained by dividing by two the total number of
colts (1 and 2 years old}.
??urce,: J- R P«tet, The Farm Horse; United Stales Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 5, Table 5; Sixteenth Census of the
United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, U. S. Summary.
have, therefore, to compute a value similar to the natural increase of the
population. For the United States as a whole, we can arrive at a fairly
satisfactory estimate of the rate of change in the number of animals for a
given period. Thus, subtracting the total number of horses on January I,
1930, from the number in 1920 (see Table $6) and dividing the differ-
ence by ten, we get an average annual decrease of 638,359 horses for the
United States. Relating this yearly decrease to the number of horses in
1920, we get a rate of decrease of 3.23 percent (arithmetic method). Now,
if we add this rate of decrease to the average breeding rate for the period,2
we get 4.88 plus 3.23, or 8. 11 as the death rate of horses in the United
States (see Table 57). For the period 1930- 193 5 the average annual death
rate is lower, 6.55 per hundred. The export and import of horses and mules
since 1920 may be disregarded in our computation since they have not been
considerable enough to affect the rate of decrease of these animals.
In the case of regions and States, we must take into account the in-
fluence of interstate movement and sales of animals, the net balance of
which may be considerable and will tend to distort the computation of the
correct death rate. According to The Farm Horse, the United States death
rates rather than the computed State death rates may be used in conjunc-
tion with State breeding rates to estimate whether the contribution of the
given State is above or below replacement rates {The Farm Horse, p. 24).
This would mean, accordingly, that the difference between breeding
rates in the Southeast and the death rate in the Nation is a rough measure
2 Following the procedure used in The Farm Horse, we assume that the birth ratio has been following
a straight-line trend, and simply average birth rates in iozo and 1930. See The Farm Horse, pp. 23, 28.
202 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 57. Average Breeding Rate, Death Rate, and Rate of Change
per 100 Animals, Horses and Mules, United States
and Southeast, 1 920-1 940
United States
Southeast
Horses and Mules
for Period
Breeding
Rate
(1)
Rate of
Change
(2)
Death
Rate
(3)
Breeding
Rate
(4)
Rate of
Change
(5)
Rate of Na-
tural Increase
(6)
Horses:
1920-1930
4.88
4.16
4.30
4.34
1.34
1.22
-3.23
-2.39
-2.99
-0.15
-2.00
-4.04
(1) - (2)
8.11
6.55
7.29
4.49
3.34
5.26
3.48
2.95
3.18
2.09
0.60
0.68
-4.43
-3.48
3.80
0.10
-0.95
-1.41
(4) - (3)
-4.63
1930-1935
-3.60
1935-1940
-4.11
Mules:
1920-1930
-2.40
1930-1935
-2.74
193S-1940
-4.56
Source: Based on data given in Table 56.
of "natural increase" for animals (see last column of Table 57). The
difference between the actual rate of change and the rate of natural in-
crease indicates then the net balance of interstate movement of animals.
In the case of mules, the loss due to the balance of births and deaths
is consistently much higher for all three periods than the actual loss.
This is because the Southeast, which raises very few mules, imports large
numbers raised in other regions. During the first two periods the total
rate of change in the number of horses differs very little from the com-
puted rate of natural increase, an indication that the net balance of the
interstate movement of horses to and from the Southeast was very small.
However, during the period from 1935 to 1940, the actual rate of change
became positive, while the rate of natural increase continued to be nega-
tive, thus showing that the breeding rate of horses remained below replace-
ment. Hence, to compensate for this loss, there must have been con-
siderable imports of horses to the region between 1935 and 1940.
Table 58 shows the decrease in the number of work animals (horses
and mules over 1 years of age) which occurred from 1930 to 1935. The
two last columns of the table give an indirect measure of increased mechani-
zation of farms in 1935, obtained by dividing the total acreage in crops by
the number of work animals for both periods. Every State in the South-
east (with the exception of Louisiana) shows a marked increase in acreage
per work animal since 1930. The extent to which this increased acreage is
being worked by mechanized equipment is our next problem.
Table 59 is intended to compare the degree of mechanization in 1930
for the Nation, the Southeast, and the eleven Southeastern States. Tractors
and motor trucks have been converted into work animal units, using the
theoretical equivalents given by the census of agriculture {$.$ work stock
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES
203
Table 58. Work Animals on Farms and Average Acreage in Crops per
Work Animal, United States and Southeast, i 930-1 935
Area
United States
Southeast. . . .
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina.
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Number work
animals
Jan. 1, 1930
17,611,905
3,927,432
281,678
378,336
218,614
389,506
60,780
473,162
471,623
392,559
463,455
488,297
309,422
Number work
animals
Jan. 1, 1935
15,467,099
3,579,905
241,587
358,604
202,512
357,657
57,829
425,423
424,328
367,601
418,680
416,435
309,249
Decrease in work
animals
Number
2,144,806
347,527
40,091
19,732
16,102
31,849
2,951
47,739
47,295
24,958
44,775
71,862
173
Percent
12.2
14.2
5.2
7.4
8.2
4.9
10.1
10.0
6.4
9.7
14.7
0.05
Acreage in crops per
work animal
1929
21.1
15.5
14.4
15.7
19.4
21.8
24.7
11.6
13.2
18.5
14.6
14.0
13.6
1934
23.2
17.2
16.2
16.9
21.1
24.6
28.2
13.0
15.1
19.9
16.3
16.3
13.3
Note: Work animals on January 1, 1935 are horses and mules 2 years of age and over on this date; work animals on January 1,
1930 are horses and mules 27 months and over on April 1, 1930. Acreage in crops includes acres of crops harvested and of crop
failure.
Source: United States Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 5. Table 5.
Table 59. Total Work Animal Units on Farms, United States
and Southeast, 1930
Area
United States
Southeast
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky. ....
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi. . . .
Arkansas
Louisiana
Number
work
animals
(1)
17,611,905
3,927,432
241,587
378,336
218,614
389,506
60,780
473,162
471,623
392,559
463,455
488,297
309,422
Mechanical Units
Number
tractors
920,021
70,852
9,757
11,426
3,462
5,870
5,244
7,322
6,865
4,664
5,542
5,684
5,016
Number
motor trucks
900,385
139,002
19,459
18,558
6,966
15,967
12,203
7,188
9,039
12,838
16,503
11,000
9,281
Work animal
equivalent
(2)
6,860,885
667,690
73,123
99,959
32,973
64,219
53,248
54,647
55,836
51,328
63,487
53,262
46,150
Work animal units
Total
a)+(2)
24,472,790
4,595,122
374,259
478,295
251,587
453,725
114,028
527,809
527,459
443,887
526,942
541,559
355,572
Per farm
3.9
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.2
Percentage
ratio
mechanical to
live work
animal units
(2): (l)x 100
39.0
17.0
30.3
26.4
15.1
16.5
87.6
11.5
11.8
13.1
13.7
10.9
14.9
Note: The term "work animals" applies to horses and mules estimated to be 2 years old or over on January 1, 1930. The
theoretical work animal equivalent of one tractor is 5.5 animals; that of one truck 2.0 animals.
^cCVrThZfar,n- H^n'' p- 40; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1937, Table 577; United States Census of Agriculture,
1935, III, Chap. 5, Table 5.
units for each tractor and 2 units per truck). The total number of work
stock units per farm shows the help obtained by human labor from its live
and mechanical assistants. The United States' rate is about twice that for
the Southeast (3.9 against 1.9 units). The last column of Table 59, which
gives the percentage ratio of mechanical units to work stock units, may
serve as a rough measure of the degree of mechanization of agriculture in
the various States. Florida is the only southern State to exceed the average
index of mechanization for the Nation. Of the other States, only Virginia
204
ALL THESE PEOPLE
and North Carolina come within striking distance of the national average.
Among the low-ranking States, it should be pointed out that the indices
for Kentucky and Tennessee are probably misleading because the large
numbers of horses under two years of age on horse farms tend to inflate
the number of work animals enumerated for these States.
Table 60. Decrease in Horses and Mules on Farms and Hypothetical
Release of Acreage of Selected Feed Crops, Southeast, 1920-1935
1920-1930
1930-1935
Area
Decrease in horses
and mules
Estimated release
of acreage
Decrease in horses
and mules
Estimated release
of acreage
Southeast
918,195
111,548
46,981
78,289
115,896
18,400
175,094
176,489
29,627
51,046
75,348
39,477
3,552,772
451,550
196,564
329,114
470,639
81,620
773,740
397,289
180,733
218,990
326,848
125,685
349,224
41,916
18,920
16,327
32,249
3,294
50,368
48,494
25,767
45,033
67,568
+ 712
1,430,997
175,209
79,464
66,288
130,931
Florida
14,592
222,627
109,112
157,179
193,192
292,569
+ 10,166
Note: Decrease in horses and mules given here is computed for the periods: January 1, 1920-April 1, 1930: April 1, 1930-January
1, 1935, and covers animals of all ages.
Source: The Farm Hone, pp. 56-64; United Statu Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chaps. 5 and 6, Tables 11 and 12; Statistical
Abstract of the United States, 1926 and 1937.
The Nation's reduction of work stock has released for direct sale or for
the feeding of other livestock the products of some 30 million acres of crop-
land and 15 million acres of pasture. Table 60 shows the decrease in the
number of horses and mules of all ages from 1920 to 1930, and from 1930
to 1935, with an estimate of the release of acreage in feed crops that might
be traceable to the decrease in draft animals. To assume, however, that
these animals were fed on forage produced within the region is not war-
ranted by what we know of the facts. Much of the feed consumed in the
Southeast is imported. This release of acreage was computed on the fol-
lowing basis worked out by the census: the yearly "maintenance" ration of
a horse or a mule was estimated to be equal to 62.8 bushels of oats and 2.2
tons of hay, or to 35.8 bushels of corn and 2.2 tons of hay, according to
the kind of grain used. The maintenance ration, accordingly, is a "theo-
retical allowance necessary to keep animals that are not working in a good,
thrifty condition," computed per thousand pounds of body weight. Since
the ration for light work, or the so-called "standard" ration requires a
double amount of grain, and the ration for heavy work or for heavier ani-
mals would be still greater, the assumption of "maintenance" ration is very
conservative. Next, it was assumed that since oats are primarily a horse
feed, the decrease in the acreage of oats from 1920 to 1930 should be at-
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES 205
tributed to the decrease in draft animals. Thus, the number of animals that
could be fed on oats produced on this acreage of land according to the aver-
age decennial yield in each State has been computed. This figure was
deducted from the total decrease in draft animals. The remaining animals
were assumed to be kept on corn as a grain ration, and the necessary acre-
age was estimated on the average decennial yield of corn for each State.
Likewise, the necessary hay acreage for the 918,195 animals representing
the total decrease for the Southeast was estimated on the basis of 2.2 tons
requirement per animal and the average yield per acre of hay by States.
The total estimated release of acreage is the sum of the oats, corn, and
hay acreage thus computed. For the period 1930- 193 5 we simply assumed
that the necessary acreage to feed one animal was the same for each State
as in the period from 1920 to 1930.
The total released acreage amounted to 3.5 million acres from 1920
to 1930. Its effect can be partly accounted for by the tremendous increase
of 2 million acres planted in cotton as well as a small increase in tobacco
acreage in the Southeast within this period (Table 61). But the released
acreage of 1.5 million acres from 1930 to 1935 cannot be traced to the
same change in crops, since there was a drastic reduction of 7.9 million
acres in cotton and a half million acres in tobacco during these five years,
in spite of the fact that total cropland planted in the Southeast remained
almost constant from 1930 to 1935. We must, therefore, assume that acre-
age released by the decrease of draft animals has resulted in the increase
of some other crops. From the discussion in Chapter 13 it seems that the
striking increase in the acreage of soybeans, peanuts, potatoes, and other
vegetables in the Southeast, as well as a surplus of corn and hay to take
care of the increased number of cows and hogs, has absorbed the acreage
Change in Cotton and Tobacco Acreage, United States and
Southeast, 191 9-1 934
Table 61.
Area
United States.
Southeast. . . .
Virginia
North Carolina.
South Carolina .
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
1919-1929
Change in
cotton acreage
+9,487,382
+2,090,473
+ 41,414
+ 266,697
- 658,491
-1,314,055
+ 12,899
+ 10,543
+ 237,281
+ 938,344
+1,061,147
+ 892,674
+ 602,020
Change in
Tobacco acreage
+ 26,885
+ 74,013
- 53,370
+226,063
+ 9,356
+ 65,103
+ 6,011
-165,320
- 8,588
- 2,888
- 1,637
- 390
327
1929-1934
Change in
cotton acreage
-16,473,791
- 7,913,827
31,628
- 670,688
- 691,402
- 1,249,344
31,832
+ 7,506
- 286,462
- 1,436,436
- 1,481,102
- 1,283,571
- 758,868
Change in
tobacco acreage
-651,248
-547,709
- 69,864
-202,582
- 41,190
- 39,397
- 4,188
-169,452
- 21,066
104
+ 114
+ 34
- 14
Source: The Farm Hors,, Tables 11 and 12; United States Census oj Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 6, Tables 40 and 44
206
ALL THESE PEOPLE
ceded by cotton and tobacco together with that released by the decrease in
draft animals.
MECHANIZATION ON THE FARM
Driven from the city streets by the automobile and the delivery truck,
the horse has been threatened on his farm home by the tractor and the
truck. Between 191 5 and 1940 motorized equipment displaced nearly 10
million horses and mules on farms. One study has estimated that each
tractor has taken the place of 2>4 horses. Too few colts were being raised
in 1940 to provide for sufficient replacement in work stock even if 500,000
additional tractors should be bought within the next ten years to replace
1,500,000 work animals. From these figures we may conclude that higher
prices for work stock may serve to increase the purchase of tractors, if and
when they are made available.
The improvement in the type and performance of tractors has been
followed by their adoption on the farms of the Nation. Figure 132
from the Department of Agriculture shows that, although domestic sales
of tractors have fluctuated with economic conditions, their number on farms
has steadily increased. From an estimated 10,000 in 19 10, tractors on
Figure 132. Horses and Mules, and Tractors on Farms,
January i, United States, 1910-1943
HORSES 1
(MILLIONS)
Hors
ss and mi
on farms
les
•
TRACTORS
(THOUSANDS)
1,800
30
/
4
/
/
/
t
1.500
25
4*
/
/
/
— /
1,200
20
L>^
/
/
/
900
15
1
"r actors 0
farms
n
**
600
10
*
300
5
-
4
4f
4*
*
1 1 1 1
iiit
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
0
Ad
1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
DATA FOR 194S ARE PRELIMINARY
NEG 38745 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES 207
farms rose to almost a quarter of a million in 1920, reached over 900,000
in 1930, and totaled over a million and a half in 1940. The adoption of
tractors in the last twenty years has been rapid in all areas except the East-
ern Cotton Belt. In the Delta, the Southeast has joined in with the trend
toward mechanization, and in the Southwest the rates of adoption have been
among the highest in the country.
Figure 133 which gives the percentage of farms having tractors in
1940 shows the familiar lag of the region. The States range from North
Dakota with tractors on 59.2 percent of its farms to Mississippi with 2.7
percent. The highest rates of mechanization are found in the Northwest,
while the Southeast has the lowest with 4.2 percent.
Figure 133. Percentage of All Farms Reporting Tractors,
United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, i94o, Agriculture, Series 2, No. 2
_ Figures on the number of tractors should be related to the size of farm.
It is doubtful if tractors are to be found on many farms smaller than ioo
acres. The National Research Project estimated that, if fruit and vegetable
farms and smaller-sized farms be omitted, there was in 1930 one tractor
for every fourth farm over 50 acres or one for every third farm over 100
acres. By 1940 tractors had increased by 70.4 percent and the number of
farms reporting tractors had increased 65.6 percent. Thus on the basis of
the method set up by the National Research Project there must be in 1940
208 ALL THESE PEOPLE
5 tractors for every 12 farms over 50 acres or 5 for every 9 farms over
100 acres. Thus the smaller size of farms in the Southeast would seem to
explain the region's lag in mechanization. In eight States over 50 percent
of the farms are less than 50 acres. Insofar as this applies to small owners
with holdings of 100 acres or less the conclusion appears sound.
In the plantation areas, however, we encounter the fact that many of
these small farms represent tenant operations on the plantation. Although
tractors may operate on tenants' holdings, only the plantation owner's
farm would be credited in the census with owning tractors. As the planta-
tion with its centralized management introduces tractor-driven equipment,
tenant holdings may be consolidated within the plantation and thus dis-
appear from the census rolls. Later we shall investigate the changes in
tenants and farm laborers to see the extent to which this trend is evident
in the plantation areas. In the Southwest large-scale farming already ex-
isted, perfectly adapted to mechanization. In areas of small ownership,
change toward mechanization would depend upon the rental or purchase of
small farms by larger owners and business men.
New inventions and the development of new products have long been
a major force in pushing people from one sector of employment to another.
Tractors and tractor-driven equipment which have displaced farm horses
have also displaced farm labor. Mechanization in agriculture rates as a
most decisive factor in determining the amount of population that can ex-
pect to remain on farms and be supported by income from agriculture. This
fact can be shown by estimates of recent trends. "From 1909 to 1929 the
output per person working in agriculture increased approximately 37 per-
cent. This increased productivity made it possible for 7.5 percent fewer
persons to produce an agricultural output which was 27 percent greater in
1929 than in 1909."3
The introduction of the tractor, tractor equipment, and the combine has
reduced the time required for a man to prepare lands, seed, harvest, stack,
thresh, and haul an acre of wheat to the granary from about 12.7 hours in
1 9 10 to 6.1 hours in 1935. The changes in the number of man hours re-
quired per acre for different crops under increasing mechanization in the
United States are indicated in Table 62. Although mechanization else-
where has been unable to duplicate its achievements in wheat, all crops have
seen their labor requirements curtailed. Most laggard in these respects
have been cotton, tobacco, and corn, main crops in the South.
Mechanization increases the size of farms by decreasing their number,
it increases greatly the amount of capital needed to own and operate a farm
enterprise, and it reduces the need for labor at the same time that it serves
3 E. A. Shaw and J. A. Hopkins, Trends in Employment in Agriculture 1909-1936, National Research
Project (Washington, D. C: United States Government Printing Office, 1938).
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES 209
Table 62. Estimated Man Hours Required per Acre to Produce Crops
at Different Periods in the United States, 1 909-1 936
Estimated man hours to produce:
Period
Wheat
Oats
Corn
Cotton
Potatoes
Beets
1909-1913
12.7
10.3
6.7
6.1
12.5
10.8
8.6
7.9
28.7
27.6
23.3
22.5
105
95
85
88
89
76
1917-1921
113
1927-1931
112
1934-1936
99
94
W^,R^POrt °f ^PA N?tional R««rch Project on Changes in Technology and Labor Requirement in Crop Production.
Separate monographs on wheat and oats, pp. 95, 98; corn, p. 120; cotton, p. 103; potatoes, p. 67; sugar beets, p 67. tlOD-
to reduce the number of farms. This process operates on the different ten-
ure classes in agriculture by producing different rates of change. Large
operators increase, and small owners, tenants, and laborers show various
rates of decrease. These rates of change may be expected to vary by sub-
regions. In the Southeast smaller farms may be expected to give way to
the larger farms already existing. Thus in the Delta area, plantations are
already large and farm tenants would be displaced or changed to the status
of wage hands. In the Eastern Cotton Belt small farm owners might be
able to resist mechanization because of the influence that rough topography
exerts in upland areas. Such farmers would suffer, however, in competi-
tion with the lower costs of production developed in mechanized areas.
In the more level coastal plains of the Eastern Belt small farms could be
assembled into larger holdings if the demand for products steadily in-
creased.
The Cotton Belt has lagged behind other regions in the adoption of
machinery. Until recently this has been true in the main plantation areas
in spite of the fact that the plantation was already in possession of the large
holdings, the integrated management, and the access to capital necessary
for mechanization. For this reason some students of the problem have
thought that mechanization in cotton would be forced to wait upon the
development of a mechanical picker. It is now evident that tractor equip-
ment by itself is sufficient to reduce the demand for farm workers in sev-
eral types of areas.
In a southwestern study, Bonnen and Magee calculated that the use of
two-row tractor equipment on all farm lands in the Texas High Plains
would so increase the efficiency of operations as to make possible a reduc-
tion in the number of farms to 58 percent of the 1935 count. The use of
four-row tractor equipment would reduce the number to 33 percent. In
a Delta study Langsford and Thibodeaux have shown that the mechaniza-
tion of plantations would reduce the labor for one plantation of 750 crop
acres from 40 families under the one-row plow-mule system to 24 families
under a four-row tractor system— a decrease of 40 percent. This is a con-
210 ALL THESE PEOPLE
servative figure and is based on the assumption that some of the 24 families
would be retained mainly for hoeing and picking cotton.4
H. G. Porter's unpublished study in Louisiana, reported by R. J. Sa-
ville, indicates a loss of 1.6 farm families for every tractor added on Louisi-
ana plantations. By tenure groups this means an average decrease of 1.8
cropper families, 0.4 renter families, and an increase of 0.6 wage hands
per tractor added on each plantation. To calculate the loss of farms Saville
and Porter made use of the data and methods developed in the WPA
studies. They found a decrease of 5.1 farms for every tractor adopted in
the Eastern Cotton Belt, a decrease of 2 farms in the Delta, and a decrease
of 1.1 farms for every tractor adopted in the Western Belt.5 This would
indicate that, in the Eastern Belt, the decrease in acreage devoted to staples
such as cotton and tobacco has been the predominant influence. While at
present it may be reasonable to conclude from these figures that one trac-
tor takes the place of one farm family, the rate of displacement may be
accelerated as the rationalization proceeds. Langsford and Thibodeaux
found that with the increase in power machinery in the Yazoo Delta the
proportion of cropland worked with share croppers dropped from 5$ to 42
percent, while the proportion worked by wage hands increased from 31
to 53 percent from 1933 to 1936. The Department of Agriculture in its
survey, Technology on the Farm, concluded in 1940 that the traditional
' plantation and share cropper system of farm organization in parts of the
South was passing without the aid of a mechanical cotton picker.
FARMS LACKING POWER RESOURCES
There exists in the United States a sizeable number of farms which
appear to have no power resources whatever — neither horse power nor
mechanized power. Instead of tractors pushing horses off the farms in
the Southeast, the 1940 Census indicates that horses and mules had left
some farms before tractors made their appearance. Thus Figure 134 which
gives the proportion of farms lacking horses and mules indicates a range
from only 13.4 percent lacking work stock in Iowa to 66.8 percent in
Massachusetts. A comparison of this Figure with Figure 133, showing
the percentage of farms with tractors, serves to indicate the distribution of
energy resources. It is evident that many farms in the Corn Belt possess
power resources from both work stock and tractors. In New England and
the Far West, however, many specialty farms have no source of power,
either animal or mechanical. In West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee,
Mississippi over 30 percent of all farms report no horses or mules while less
* See references and discussion in C. Horace Hamilton, "The Social Effects of Recent Trends in the
Mechanization of Agriculture," Rural Sociology, VI (March, 1939), pp. 3"'9-
BR. J. Saville, "Trends in Mechanization and Tenure Changes in the Southeast," The People, the
Land and the Church in the Rural South (Chicago, Farm Foundation, 194O. PP- 81-82.
MEN, MULES, AND MACHINES 211
Figure 134. Percentage of All Farms Not Reporting Horses or Mules,
United States, 1940
Source: Tabulations from the Census in Farm Population and Rural Life Activities, U. S. Department
of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, XVI, p. 6, January, 1942.
than 4.4 percent of the farms have tractors. If we could assume that all
farms lacking horses and mules possessed tractors, over one-fourth of the
farms still would lack any source of power stronger than human muscle. A
similar situation prevails in New England and Far Western States.
In areas where the plantation form of organization is prevalent, sev-
eral farm units may use horse or tractor power supplied from a central
headquarters. It is impossible to ascertain from the census figures how
many tenant farms in the Mississippi Delta may have access to tractors and
mules at central barns. Hamilton reported in 1939 that in some areas the
mechanization of cotton farms had increased the number of what has been
called "patch croppers" or "hoe croppers." The patch cropper receives a
cash wage, working on the plantation when needed, and in addition culti-
vates on shares a small patch of some four or five acres of cotton. The
power for breaking land, etc., may be furnished by the planter who charges
the cropper a regular rate for the service.6
In other areas like Tennessee, and Kentucky we know that many farm-
ers must be undertaking the difficult task of operating without any power.
In such cases the income can hardly be large enough to sustain a decent
level of living. In other areas the answer is to be found in part-time work.
C. Horace Hamilton, op. cit., p. 13.
212 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Thus in West Virginia, where 40 percent of all farmers have neither trac-
tors nor work animals, one-third of all farm operators work 100 days or
more off the farm. It may be that many farmers displaced from full-scale
farm operations get work in industry but continue to live on the farm and
grow enough products to be reported by the Census of Agriculture.
The breeding of farm animals has been allowed to fall below replace-
ment rate in anticipation of the trend toward mechanization. Already the
prices of farm horses and mules must have risen to a point where small
operators have experienced difficulty in making purchases, while large oper-
ators were too interested in acquiring tractors to give breeders the encour-
agement needed for increasing the horse and mule population.
This is the situation that presented itself when the need for steel in
the war industries cut off needed supplies for farm machinery. Equipment
and parts for repairs were made available but, for the time being, the war
halted the trend toward mechanization. Regardless of the future of gaso-
line power in agriculture, the plight of these small farmers without energy
resources indicates that the flight from the farm horse has already been
carried too far. Indications are that increased breeding of farm animals
is needed if agriculture is to accomplish its task in the war and after.
This leaves the related problem of the displacement of tenants and
farm laborers for treatment in a succeeding chapter.
CHAPTER 15
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND
The broad relationships between population and land may be divided
into two main types: land utilization and land tenure. The first is based
on the physical aspects of land, the second on legal rights to occupy and
make use of lancLas property. Both help to determine the distribution of
farm income among the farm population. The first phase we have dis-
cussed as the connecting link between physical and human factors in the
agriculture of the Southeast. Land tenure, the second phase, is basic to
agriculture for it deals with the access to the land of both the propertied and
the unpropertied as sanctioned in accepted legal codes. Land tenure is thus
a deeply imbedded phase of culture for k deals with rights of private own-
ership thaJLgo back to the dim past. In its economic aspects this distribu-
tion of rights determines who shall occupy land and what share of its in-
come they shall receive.
LAND TENURE
This chapter accordingly deals with tenure on the land as a basis of
support for various classes of the population of the Southeast. People are
seen as competing for a place on the land, rising and falling in the ranks
of owners and tenants, and leaving the land for other opportunities. This
chapter is neither a study in migration nor in the returns from agriculture,
for both these topics have received attention elsewhere. It is rather a study
of how^people secure footholds on the land, how they lose them, and how
they climb or fall from foothold to foothold. Tenure status in its broad
aspects can be arrayed in a continuing series of stages, leading from farm
labor at one end to large landed proprietor at the other.
In an agrarian society where land serves as the chief source of wealth,
ownership and tenure relations offer a basis whereby the population is di-
vided into social and economic classes with rights to income and even to
social "standing." In its legal aspects this situation grows out of the fact
t2I3]
214 ALL THESE PEOPLE
that under the system of private property, rights in land are divided. Pub-
lic rights are those exercised by government such as rights of eminent do-
main, taxation, conservation, etc. Private rights themselves are guarded
and protected by government, as witness the laws of trespass, but they can
be assigned among several persons. The chief form of this division occurs
when the owner grants some of his rights to the use of land to a tenant for
a fixed period in return for specified payments in money or kind. In range
these rights vary from the limited ones granted a farm laborer working on
land to those of a cash tenant operating over a long period. Since the ten-
ant pays for the privilege of using these rights, questions of land tenure
are also concerned with rent.1
Farms of the size and type suitable for family operation with some
hired labor are still characteristic of the United States as a whole. Only
the plantations of the South, western ranches, and some large farms else-
where are too large for family operation. Owner-operated farms and
owner-operated farm acreage still exceed tenant operated. The general
trend until 1930, however, had been towards tenancy with farmers gradu-
ally losing ownership of the land they til.1. This can also be demonstrated
for owners who, because of increased mortgage debt, hold less equity in
the land they till.2
Tenancy is more prevalent in the South than in any other region. The
link between tenancy and cotton production seems just as close today as
ever. Once we leave the cotton farms, tenancy does not show up much
worse in the South than in other parts of the Nation. In 1930 the rate of
tenancy for non-cotton farms was just 32 percent for the entire country.
In the 16 States of the census South, tenancy averaged 38 percent for non-
cotton farms, but 73 percent of all cotton farms were tenant operated — a
ratio almost double that of non-cotton farms.
More than in any other region of the country, tenure status in the
Southeast tends to coincide with social rank and economic status of the peo-
ple on the land. In the Midwest many tenants are better off than land-
owners, and their decision to rent rather than buy land represents a busi-
ness man's decision as the best use to make of his funds. Cash rent is not
prevalent in the Southeast and share renting has a different meaning. In,
the Southeast, where the cropper is nearest in lineal descent to the ante-
bellum slave and the landowner has the prestige of position and independ-
ence, the various tenure levels come near to representing fixed social lev-
els. With these considerations in mind we shall examine the various tenure
stages and the changes that have occurred in farm tenancy.
1 Adapted from George S. Wehrwein in Research in Agricultural Land Tenure, John D. Black, editor
(New York: Social Science Research Council, 1933), pp. 1-3.
a H. A. Turner, Graphic Survey of Farm Tenure, United States Department of Agriculture, Miscella-
neous Publication 261 (Washington, D. C, 1936), p. 1.
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND 215
THE TENURE STAGES
Land tenure studies in the United States have given attention to the
various tenure stages because in many sections farmers have expected to
rise from laborer stage to ownership. If this movement were entirely lack-
ing, tenure status would still be worthy of study as an index of class struc-
ture. Eachnclass, beginning with the farm laborer, has rights in the use
of land more extensive than those enjoyed by the common public. In secur-
ing access to the land, men may begin as laborers or inherit a farm; they
may rise from the position of renter to one of landowner; they may be dis-
placed by a contracting agriculture; or they may move to more remunera-
tive jobs in factories and cities. In this changing panorama, various ele-
ments in the population may gain and lose footholds on the land and climb
up and down the "agricultural ladder," whose rungs from low to high
lead from farm laborer to farm owner.
In the Southeast this picture is variegated and complex. It is possible,
for example, to name thirteen separate "rungs" on the "agricultural lad-
der" in the South, all the way from the unpaid family labor of a son work-
ing on his father's cropper farm to the status of casual wage hand, regular
wage hand, cropper, share tenant, standing renter, cash renter, manager,
part owner, mortgaged owner, full owner of a small farm, landlord, and
large planter.
In the region's network of tenure relations, there are places where one
status shades easily into the next. If a day laborer on a plantation is given
a special tract of land to till and his wage for the year is established at one-
half of the cotton and other cash crops which he grows on the tract, he has
made the transition to share cropper. If he can finance a down payment on
a mule and simple implements, he may become a share renter paying only
one-third of the product in rent. If the mortgage on the mule is foreclosed,
he reverts to cropper status and the landlord feeds the animal the next sea-
son. The step to landowner, however, is much more difficult, while the
status of cash renter is definitely nearer that of the entrepreneur.
While each tenure status is capable of statistical definition, only a mini-
mum number can be studied from the census. Usually returned are crop-
pers, share tenants, managers, part owners, and owners. In addition the
number of farm laborers can usually be ascertained from the occupational
statistics. For several reasons, managers and part owners are often counted
with full owners. It is impossible, however, in the regular figures to
separate small owners from those who own large holdings and plantations.
There exists, moreover, not only mobility between each of these agri-
cultural ranks but also mobility out of each status on the land. As an instru-
ment for the study of population mobility the tenure ladder accordingly
2l6
Table 63.
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Change in Number and Acreage of Farms and in Number and
Distribution of Farm Workers, United States
and Southeast, 1930- 1940
Area and Selected
1930
1935
1940
Percent Change
Agricultural Statistics
1930-35
1935-40
1930-40
United States
1 . Number of Farms
6,288,648
986,771
6,812,350
1,054,515
6,096,799
1,060,852
8.3
6.9
-10.5
0.6
- 3.1
7.5
2. Farm Acreage (Thousands of acres).
3. Total Farm Workers (14 years old
and over), number. .
10,266,435
12,407,614*
8,941,496
20.9
-27.9
-12.9
percent
100
100
100
3A. Operators and
Managers, number. . .
6,079,234
6,488,246
5,241,589
23.8
-19.2
-13.8
percent. . . .
59
52
59
3B. Wage Workers, number. . .
2,714,588
1,645,602
2,490,603
-39.4
51.3
- 8.3
percent. . . .
26
13
28
3C. Unpaid Family Workers,
number. . .
1,472,613
4,273,166
1,209,304
190.2
-71.7
-17.9
percent
IS
35
13
4 . Laborers per 100 Farms, all
66
87
61
Wage Workers
43
23
24
63
41
20
Unpaid Family Workers. . .
Southeast
1 . Number of Farms ....
2,388,806
2,547,952
188,543
2,259,030
183,677
6.7
— 11.3
- 5.4
7.7
2. Farm Acreage (Thousands of acres).
170,508
10.6
- 2.6
3. Total Farm Workers (14 years old
and over), number...
4,041,631
5,199,849*
3,482,231
28.7
-33.0
-13.8
percent
100
100
100
3A. Operators and Managers,
number. . .
2,316,047
2,425,531
2,005,785
4.7
-17.3
-13.4
,_ percent
57
47
58
3B. Wage Workers, number. . .
826,716
573,271
842,525
-30.7
47.0
1.9
percent
21
11
24
3C. Unpaid Family Workers,
number. . .
898,868
2,201,047
633,921
144.9
-71.2
-29.5
percent. . . .
22
42
18
4. Laborers per 100 Farms, all..
73
108
65
Wage Workers
35
38
22
86
37
28
Unpaid Family Workers
♦Workers of all ages for 1935.
Note: Number of farm operators in 1930 and in 1940 (line 3A of the table) is derived from the occupational statistics of the
Census of Population for 1930 and 1940 and therefore is smaller than the number of farms reported by the Census of Agri-
culture (line 1). This difference is due to the fact that farm operators may give other work outside of farming as their major
occupation. The number of farm operators in 1935 is also smaller than the number of farms, although both figures are reported
by the Census of Agriculture in 1935. This is explained by the fact that the 1935 Census was taken on January 1, when some
farms were reported "vacant" due to absence of operators at this season. This change of date is also responsible for the low num-
i j ''^ workers. The surprisingly high number of unpaid family workers may be partly explained by the depression but
should also be attributed to the difference in definition of farm laborer in 1935 as compared with the other periods. The 1940
Census includes only workers 14 years old and over, and children under 14 have been excluded from the workers enumerated in
1930 to make the data comparable. No such correction could be applied to the data of the Census of Agriculture in 1935, and
therefore the number of farm laborers in 1935, especially the number of unpaid family workers, must include some children under
14, which certainly exaggerates the total number. To make data comparable with figures for other years the number of farm
workers in 1940 was corrected to include emergency workers in agriculture and a proportional share of workers with "occupa-
tions not reported".
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, IV, Tables 4 and 23. United States Census of Agriculture, 1935,
III, Chap. 4. Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940: Population, Series P-ll; Agriculture, First Series, Tables V and VI.
presents an added complication in that there are exits on every level to
the non-agricultural occupations. One who watches, as from a bird's eye
view, the population in its competitive struggle, on the one side for a foot-
hold on the land, on the other for a chance to leave the land for better op-
portunities, would see varying degrees of mobility for each class and race.
In our present state of knowledge, we know too little about these changes.
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND
217
The total working force on the land consists of^farm operators and
farm laborers returned in the occupational statistics. The national total
of all farm workers (operators and laborers) in 1940 was 8.9 millions of
which the Southeastern States furnished 3^ millions. As Table 63 shows,
2 millions of this group were farm operators — owners, tenants, and
croppers.
Table 64 classifies the Nation's farm operators by tenure status. Of
the operators in the Southeast, 21.9 percent were croppers who paid one-
half or more of the money cash for rent of land, workstock, and equipment;
18.5 percent were share tenants who owned and fed their workstock but
paid one-fourth to one-third of their cash crops for rent; 8.8 percent were
cash tenants who paid money rent.
Table 64. Number and Percent of Farm Operators by Color and Tenure,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1 930-1 940
Year
AH farm
operators
Full and part
owners
Farm
managers
All
tenants
Croppers
Colored
operators
Region
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
Number
Per-
cent
United
States
1930
1935
1940
6,288,648
6,812,350
6,096,799
100.0
100.0
100.0
3,568,394
3,899,091
3,699,177
56.7
57.2
60.7
55,889
48,104
36,351
0.9
0.7
0.6
2,664,365
2,865,155
2,361,271
42.4
42.1
38.7
776,278
716,256
541,291
12.3
10.5
8.9
916,070
855,555
719,071
14.6
12.6
11.8
Northeast .
1930
1935
1940
618,079
715,465
633,676
100.0
100.0
100.0
516,855
587,007
529,898
83.6
82.0
83.6
10,814
9,256
6,592
1.8
1.3
1.0
90,410
119,202
97,186
14.6
16.7
15.3
3,705
4,979
2,992
0.6
0.7
0.5
7,931
8,297
7,247
1.3
1.2
1.1
Southeast. . . .
1930
1935
1940
2,388,806
2,547,952
2,259,030
100.0
100.0
100.0
1,043,731
1,166,063
1,140,260
43.7
45.8
50.5
11,375
9,920
8,274
0.5
0.4
0.4
1,333,700
1,371,969
1,110,496
55.8,
53.8*
49.2
646,396
621,169
493,526
27.1
24.4
21.9
766,111
719,?12
608,590
32.1
28.2
26.9
Southwest. . . .
Middle
1930
1935
1940
1930
1935
1940
744,932
774,535
650,262
1,622,625
1,787,429
1,672,864
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
304,263
341,369
335,133
1,097,113
1,171,410
1,127,187
40.8
44.1
51.5
67.6
65.5
67.4
5,019
5,201
4,895
13,206
10,679
8,879
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.5
0.5
435,650
427,965
310,234
512,306
605,340
536,798
58.5
55.2
47.7
31.6
33.9
32.1
126,177
90,108
44,773
16.9
11.6
6.9
116,298
99,310
80,118
9,743
9,876
7,440
15.6
12.8
12.3
0.6
0.6
0.4
Northwest
1930
1935
1940
648,927
683,617
601,156
100.0
100.0
100.0
397,988
402,861
343,197
61.3
58.9
57.1
5,379
4,227
3,068
0.8
0.6
0.5
245,560
276,529
254,891
37.9
40.5
42.4
-
—
8,161
8,751
6,386
1.3
1.3
1.1
Far West
District of
Columbia. .
1930
1935
1940
1930
1935
1940
265,175
303,263
279,746
104
89
65
100.0
100.0
100.0
208,385
230,330
223,472
59
51
30
78.6
76.0
79.9
10,075
8,804
4,620
21
17
23
3.8
2.9
1.7
46,715
64,129
51,654
24
21
12
17.6
21.1
18.5
-
-
7,815
9,597
9,286
2.9
3.2
3.3
Source: United StaUs Census of Agriculture, 1935, III, Chap. 3, Table 6; Sixteenth Census o] the United States, 1940, Agriculture,
first Series, press release of March 18, 1941.
In addition, in 1940 the Occupational Statistics show 842,525 white
and Negro farm laborers in the Southeast classified as "wage hands over
14 not employed on the home farm," equal to 24 percent of all in agricul-
ture (Table 63). Their major source of livelihood came from agriculture
though we cannot be sure that all had permanent habitation on the land
2i 8 ALL THESE PEOPLE
or that their employment was continuous except for periods of cultivation
and harvest.
We know less about the upper range of the hierarchy than the lower.
There is a group consisting of 6.2 percent of the operators who own part
of the land they till and 44.2 percent who are full owners in the Southeast.
This is not a completely significant figure, for about 30 percent of the full
owners report mortgages covering 36.6 percent of the value of their prop-
erties, on which indebtedness they pay interest and other charges in addi-
tion to taxes and normal costs of production. Among these owners are to
be found many of the landlords and large planters who own the tenant
farms. We know little about the distribution of these holdings but, on the
basis of 1900 and 19 10 figures, it can be estimated that 7.3 percent of all
operators were landlords who owned two to four tenant farms while an-
other 2.5 percent owned five or more rented farms. This last group may
be classified as planters. Around 1900- 19 10 they owned an average of 9.9
farms and held 22.4 percent of all farms listed in the area.3
FARM LABOR
Lowest in the tenure ladder are the farm laborers. In 1940, over 2,-
490,000 paid farm laborers and over 1,209,000 unpaid family laborers
were to be found on American farms. Some of these, notably the "hired
men" employed by the month on "family farms," have more security than
many tenants. More than any other form of agriculture in our economy,
cotton and tobacco, the dominant crops in the Southeast, are still labor
oriented. This fact is evident in all discussions of the small size of farms in
regions, but is made clearer when the amount of hired and unpaid family
labor is added to farm operators.
In 1930 the Nation's farms supported a larger working force than ten
years later. The United States' total of all farm workers (operators and
laborers) 14 or more years of age in 1930 was 10,266,000, of which the
Southeastern States furnished 4,042,000 (Table 6^). For 170.5 million
acres in farms, the Southeast in 1930 had 4 million agricultural workers.
For 986.78 million acres, the nation had 10.3 million workers. Over 1.4
million of these — 23 for every 100 farms — were unpaid family workers —
wives and children of owners and tenants who worked part time on the
home farm. Another 2,715,000 — 43 per 100 farms — were hired laborers.
In the Southeast there were approximately 38 unpaid family workers and
35 hired laborers per 100 farms in 1930. Out of every 100 farm workers
in the United States on April 1, 1930, approximately 59 were farm oper-
ators, 26 were wage hands and 15 were unpaid members of the family
3 "Concentration of Landownership," U. S. Census of Agriculture, 1900. Special Census of Plantations,
"Plantation Farms in the United States," Washington: Government Printing Office, 1916.
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND
219
working on the home crops. In the Southeast there were 57 operators, 21
wage hands and 22 family workers.
While the acreage in farms increased both in the Nation and in the
Southeast^ in 1940, the number of farms and of farm workers 14 years or
older decreased. The Nation's farm acreage rose to 1,061 million acres, for
which there were now 8,941,000 farm workers, a loss of more than a mil-
lion during the decade. In the Southeast, the 170.5 million acres devoted
to farms in 1930 was increased to 183.7 million acres in 1940, but the
number of farm workers declined by more than half a million to 3,482,000.
Among every 100 farm workers in the United States in 1940, there were
still 59 operators, as in 1930. However, hired workers increased from 26
to 28, and unpaid family workers decreased correspondingly from 15 to 13
per 100 workers. By 1940 the number of hired laborers exceeded the num-
ber of unpaid family workers on the farms of the Southeast. Wage work-
ers numbered about 842,500 in 1940, an increase of some 16,000 in num-
ber. Unpaid family workers declined by more than 250,000 from 1930
to 1940, when they numbered about 633,900. Of every 100 farm workers
in the region in 1940, 58 were operators, 24 were hired laborers, and 18
were unpaid family workers (Table 63).
Figure 135. Hired Farm Laborers per 100 Farms,* United States, 1940
*Note: Emergency workers and workers with occupations unreported distributed pro rata by region but
not by states.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-n, State Summaries, Tables 1, 2.
220 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 136. Unpaid Family Workers per 100 Farms, United States, 1940
Source: See Table 63 and Figure 135.
Both in the Nation and in the region there were fewer farm laborers
and unpaid family workers per farm in 1940 than in 1930. For every 100
farms in the Nation in 1940 there were 41 hired and 20 unpaid family
workers. Although hired laborers increased from 35 to 37 for every 100
farms in the Southeast, unpaid family labor declined from 38 to 28 per 100
farms. Figures 135 and 136 indicate the ratios of hired laborers and un-
paid family workers per 100 farms in 1940. The Southeastern States rank
highest in unpaid family labor on farms and third lowest among the
regions in hired labor.
THE GROWTH OF TENANCY
American farmers have been drifting into tenancy at an increasing rate
since 1880. During this same period many European countries have either
reversed the trend toward tenancy or made reforms in the interest of the
general welfare. In 1880, there were slightly over a million tenant farm-
ers in the United States. By 1940 the number had grown to 2,361,271,
an increase of 130 percent. In this same sixty year period the number of
farms operated by owners increased only about 25 percent. Each decade,
except the last, showed an increasing proportion of tenancy; from 26 per-
cent in 1880 to 35 percent in 1900; from 38 percent in 1920 to 42 per-
cent in 1930 and 19353 with a drop to 39 percent in 1940 (Figure 137).
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND
221
Figure 137 The Trends in the Expansion of Major Areas of Farm
Tenancy by Counties, United States, 1 880-1935
COUNTIES IN WHICH AT LEAST HALF OF THE FARMS WERE OPERATED BY
TENANTS AND CROPPERS. 1880, 1890. 1900. AND 1910
us KHumtmor aMtcuuuM
M9. HIM •UMAUOrsGIICULTMUICOKWICft
COUNTIES IN WH.CH AT LEAST HALF OF THE FARMS WERE OPERATED BY TENANTS
AND CROPPERS. 1920, 1925. 1930. 1935
There was not a decade between 1890 and 1930 in which the number of
tenant farmers did not increase more rapidly than that of owners. The
largest increase came between 1890 and 1900. From 1920 to 1930 this
country had a new experience in seeing its total number of farms decline,
but even then tenant farms increased.
222 ALL THESE PEOPLE
During this period tenancy (Figure 137) has also shown a tendency to
spread. In 1880, there were 180 counties in which at least half the farms
were tenant-operated— practically all in the South. In 1935, there were
890 such counties blanketing the Cotton Belt and spreading over the fertile
parts of the Corn Belt. The number of counties in which half or more of
the farm land was leased increased from 403 in 19 10 to 1,007 in 1935.
Nor is this all. Many heavily mortgaged farmers who are in financial diffi-
culties have no more equity in their farms than tenants renting on shares.
An increasing proportion of farm operators have been sharing the income
from the land with landlords and mortgage holders. In 1890, American
farmers owned 59 percent of their farms, after subtracting indebtedness.
By 1930 this ratio had declined to 42 percent.
The trend toward tenancy, as H. A. Turner points out, must be accepted
as a phase of the unequal distribution of wealth and income, making its
appearance in the ownership of land as we passed from the frontier to a
system of closed resources. Farm tenancy tends to increase as the frontier
disappears. Free land and democratic rural institutions in most of the coun-
try have retarded this segregation of labor from capital in agriculture as
contrasted with the situation in industry, but the trend toward such segre-
gation is becoming clear.4
TENANCY BY AGE OF OPERATORS
Figure 138 shows the increasing extent to which farmers, both old and
young, in twenty years have had to accept status as tenants in order to farm
at all.' We expect to find in most States that half the farmers under 25 are
tenants, for it has been necessary for young men to gain capital and expe-
rience by renting land. The increasing number of States in which half the
farmers over 35 are tenants shows the retardation in the rate of climbing
the tenure ladder.
Studies of tenure changes by age of operators over a period of time
thus serve to indicate something of the extent of both retardation in the
rate of progress up the tenure ladder and of migration to other nonfarm
pursuits. Figure 139 shows that from 19 10 to 1930 older farmers in-
creased, younger farmers decreased, and tenancy increased among all ages.
In these twenty years the number of farmers under 35 decreased by
412,000 while those aged 55 and over increased 238,000. In 16 southern
States in which they are reported by color, white tenants and croppers under
35 increased by 23,000, colored tenants and croppers by 21,000. White
owner farmers decreased by 129,000, colored owners decreased by 20,000.
Apparently more young white farmers in the South than formerly are failing
Turner, op. cit., pp. 1-2-
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND
Figure 138. The Increase in Farm Tenancy by Age of Farmers,
United States, igi 0-1930
223
AGE OF FARMERS IN RELATION TO TENURE
STATES IN WHICH AT LEAST HALF THE FARMERS WERE TENANTS
ALL
FARMERS
FARMERS
BY AGE
55-64 YEARS
45-54 YEARS
35-44 YEARS
25-34 YEARS
UNDER
25 YEARS
1910
1910
U S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
1920
1920
1930
1930
NEG. 29114 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
224
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 139. Age and Color of Farmers in Relation to
Tenure, 1910 and 1930
FARMERS OF 16 SOUTHERN STATES
OWNERS AND
MANAGERS
(PERCENT)
100 50
TENANTS AND AGE OWNERS AND
CROPPERS GAR|EUp "Ap?.e"f)
(PERCENT) , . (PERCENT)
50 100 (YEARS) jQ0_ 50
TENANTS AND
CROPPERS
(PERCENT)
50 100
FARMERS OF 32 NORTHERN ANDWESTERN STATES. REGARDLESS OF COLOR
(ONE PERCENT WERE COLORED IN 1910 AND IN 1930)
ALL FARMERS, 1930
TENANTS AND
CROPPERS
(PERCENT)
ALL FARMERS, 1910
OWNERSAND TENANTS AND
MANAGERS CROPPERS
(PERCENT) (PERCENT)
OWNERS AND
MANAGERS
(PERCENT)
100
100
U S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
to climb the tenure ladder while many young rural Negroes are not making
the attempt. For farmers over $$■> white tenants and croppers increased
47,000, colored ones increased 19,000, white owners increased 72,000, and
colored owner farmers increased 2,500. Thus while younger men were
leaving farms for cities older men were buying and leasing farms.
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND 225
CHANGES 1 93O-1 94O
Tenancy, like poverty and unemployment, has come to be regarded as
a major social ill. Accordingly, it offers something of a puzzle to find that
the agricultural depression of the period 1930- 1940 brought the first dis-
tinct reversal in the drift toward tenancy in this country since 1880. In
the depression decade tenancy declined from 42.4 to 38.7 percent in the
Nation and from 55.8 to 49.2 percent in the Southeast.
These figures need some degree of explanation. In spite of depression,
the total number of farms in the United States declined less than 3.5 per-
cent from 1930 to 1940. This would appear to indicate extraordinary sta-
bility in the face of the economic reverses of the period. When examined
on a regional basis (Figure 140), it is found that this stability is due to the
averaging of diverse trends. Some New England and Pacific Coast States
increased the number of their farms as much as 15 to 20 percent. Farms
in the Northwest, Southwest, and Southeast declined, losing as many as
14 percent of their number in Colorado, Texas, and Georgia. In the South-
east slight increases were found in only four States, Florida, Kentucky,
Virginia, and Tennessee.
Thus, while the total number of farm operators in the Nation showed
Figure 140. Percentage Change in the Number of Farms,
United States, 1 930-1 940
Table' Vf*""* ^^ °f ^ UniUd St"teS> "*°> Agriculture, First Series, United States Summary,
226
ALL THESE PEOPLE
surprising stability, their decrease of only 3.1 percent concealed several
diverse trends (Table 65). Three regions gained in number of farm oper-
ators—the Northeast by 2.5 percent, the Middle States by 3.1 percent,
and the Far West by 5.5 percent ; three regions lost — the Southeast by 5-4
percent, the Northwest by 7.4 percent and the Southwest by 12.7 percent
(Table 65). Figure 140 shows the changes in number of farms associated
with this movement. Arizona and Massachusetts led with 30.3 and 24.6
percent increases respectively ; Georgia and Texas on the other hand lost
over 15 percent of their 1930 farms by 1940.
Table 65. Percentage Change in Number of Farm Operators by Color
and Tenure, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1 930-1 940
Region
United States.
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle States . .
Northwest
Period
Far West.
1930-1935
1930-1940
1930-193S
1930-1940
1930-1935
1930-1940
1930-1935
1930-1940
1930-1935
1930-1940
1930-1935
1930-1940
1930-1935
1930-1940
All farm
operators
Percent
change
8.3
- 3.1
15.8
2.5
6.7
5.4
4.0
-12.7
10.2
3.1
5.3
- 7.4
14.4
5.5
Owners
Percent
change
9.3
3.7
13.6
2.5
11.7
9.2
12.2
10.1
6.8
2.7
1.2
-13.8
10.5
7.2
Managers
All
tenants
Percent
change
-13.9
-35.0
-14.4
-39.0
-12.8
-27.3
3.6
2.5
-19.1
-32.8
-21.4
-43.0
-12.6
-54.1
Percent
change
7.5
-11.4
31.8
7.9
2.9
-16.7
- 1.8
-28.8
18.2
4.8
12.6
3.8
37.3
10.6
Croppers
Colored
operators
Percent
change
- 7.7
-30.3
34.4
-19.2
- 3.9
-23.6
-28.6
-64.5
Percent
change
- 6.6
-21. S
4.6
- 8.6
- 6.1
-20.6
-14.6
-31.1
1.4
-23.6
7.2
-21.7
22.8
18.8
Source: United States Census of Agriculture 1935. Ill, Chap. 3, Table 6; Sixteenth Census of the United States. 1940, Agriculture.
First Series, press release of March 18, 1941.
Since the number of farm owners increased, the loss from 1930 to 1940
largely represents the drastic change now beginning in tenant holdings,
especially in the South (Figure 141)- In the Northeast, Middle States,
Far West, and Northwest, tenants continued to increase faster than owners
on the land (Figure 142). Only in the Northwest where some 54>7°°
owners disappeared from the land in drought and depression, was there a
net loss in the number of land owners, amounting to 13.8 percent.
From 1930 to 1940 the Southeast gained almost 97,000 new owners,
an increase of 9.2 percent. This proportionate increase was exceeded only
by the Southwest with a 10. 1 percent gain in owners. In the Far West
both owners and tenants increased, 7.2 and 10.6 percent respectively. Ten-
ants increased by 3.8 percent in the Northwest, 4.8 percent in the Middle
States, and 7.9 percent in the Northeast. (Table 65, Figures 141, 142).
The figures thus indicate that practically all the Nation's losses in farm
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND 227
Figure 141. Percentage Change in Number of Tenants,
United States, 1 930-1 940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculutre, First Series, Press Release of March
18, 194.1.
Figure 142. Percentage Change in the Number of Farm Owners,
United States, 193 0-1940
Source: Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1940, p. 645; 194.1, p. 682.
228 ALL THESE PEOPLE
tenants occurred in the southern regions. The Southeast lost 223,200 and
the Southwest 125,400 tenants, '16.7 and 28.8 percent respectively. In
both regions this loss was heaviest among the croppers. It is this decline
that we shall attempt to analyze in a succeeding chapter on race, class, and
tenure.
TENANCY AS A SOCIAL PROBLEM
Farm tenancy carries many implications that are so diverse in the differ-
ent regions of the country that we can hardly do more than list them. It
affects such problems as those of balancing production with the consump-
tion of farm products, providing for soil conservation, interfarm mobility,
raising and maintaining educational standards, migration from farms to
cities, the ability of the migrants to secure employment, and the accumula-
tion or dissipation of rural wealth.
There are to be found in the world's agriculture, no doubt, good ten-
ancy systems. It is felt by practically all students, however, that share-
tenancy as developed in the Cotton Belt is ruinous of both land and men.
The tenure structure in the South has for historical reasons proved coter-
minous with a whole social system, inheriting some of the antecedents of
slavery. Unpropertied freedmen were brought into post-war agriculture
on the cropper level and white farmers in competition with them soon ac-
quired similar economic, legal, and even social status.
In law and actual practice then, both share-tenants and croppers in the
region stand halfway between real tenants and laborers paid with a share
of the crop. Thus they lack some of the legal rights of tenancy just as they
lack the laborer's right to collect a cash wage and spend it in the open mar-
kets. Partly because of the low educational status of the tenant, partly be-
cause of the custom, in the Cotton Belt no method has generally been ac-
cepted of applying share-rent to livestock or other major products besides
cotton and tobacco. Accordingly, there has been too little return of fertility
to the land through the growing of cover crops, livestock, etc.
Leasing arrangements have been improved but little, and, with little
security of tenure and no permanent interest in improvements in the land,
the average tenant has been content with a quick skimming of its resources
before he moves to another farm. Indeed, to incorporate permanent im-
provements in land or buildings would, under the present system of law,
be presenting a free gift to the landlord. Thus much of the tenant's spare
time is wasted and outside of the really stable plantation organization,
rented farms are allowed to run down while the land goes untilled, the
fences and tenant cabins unrepaired. The waste of human resources may
be made clear by reference to the nutritional problems of the tenant family.
The landowner, as indicated, gets his income from staple cash crops. Un-
TENANCY— A FOOTHOLD ON THE LAND 229
less exceptional, he does not devote much of his supervision and financing
to seeing that the tenant produces the fruits, meats, milk, and vegetables
needed to feed his family. If any of these crops produced a marketable
surplus they would offer a problem in share rent as well as interfere with
the main business of producing staples. Moreover the tenants, caught in
the staple routine and steeped in the need for cash in an economy of book
credit, rarely acquire the means, the training, or possibly the inclination,
to produce an adequate supply of food or feed crops. Considered in con-
nection with the price level, these conditions help explain why the reduc-
tion in staples during the depression was followed by the dismissal of ten-
ants rather than their transfer to other crops.
Measured by the returns to laborers, croppers, and share tenants, the
South's agrarian economy represents the most uneconomic utilization of a
large labor force to be found in our country. The tenant families on the
southern plantations, studied by T. J. Woofter, Jr., in 1934, had an aver-
age net income of $309, or $73 per person, for a year's work. Share crop-
pers received $312, or $71 per person, but wage hands had a net income of
only $180 per family. The average for croppers ranged from $38 to $87
per person. An annual income of $38 per person was equal to slightly
more than ten cents a day!5
In a study of Negro croppers in Alabama, Harold Hoffsommer found
that three-fourths of those who started as croppers never rose above that
status and that only one-tenth rose to be owners.6 Low income and the
failure to accumulate wealth is of course the crux of the matter. Here Hoff-
sommer, in a study of 700 cropper families, found that they "broke even"
during 4.5 percent of the total years, lost money during 30 percent, and
cleared some profit above all expenses in 25 percent. Of 3,000 current
cropper families studied, he found 40 percent indebted to their present
landlords with a debt of more than one year's standing averaging more
than $80. He estimated that this was the condition of one-third of the
croppers in the State and concluded that the share cropper cannot expect
from his labor more than a bare living in his characteristic situation of de-
pendence on the landlord and time merchant for credit for family living,
tools, work stock, and access to the land.
The labor force found in all tenure groups has been accumulated and
retained on the land by a combination of high fertility and lack of alterna-
tive opportunities. It is both a population problem and an economic prob-
BT. J. Woofter, Landlord and Tenant on the Cotton Plantation, W.P.A. Division of Social
Research, Washington, 1936, pp. xxvi-xxvii, ch. VI.
* H. C. Hoffsommer, Landlord-Tenant Relations and Relief in Alabama. Research Bulletin, Series II
No. 9, FERA (Washington, D. C, 1935, mimeographed). '
230 ALL THESE PEOPLE
lem. In the beginning it is likely that crops in the South demanded more
labor per unit of cultivation than those elsewhere. Certainly as mechaniza-
tion progressed in other areas, the concentration of labor on southern farms
became more apparent. In terms of efficient practices and market adjust-
ments, it seems likely that the Southeast faces a rationalization of its labor
system that is long overdue. Increased mechanization, shifts from row-
crops to forage, livestock, and other forms of agriculture may serve to
increase the acreage tended per operator and thus increase the farmer's
income, but it will displace tenant operators from southern farms. In the
next chapter we shall consider how such movements have affected race,
class, and tenure groups.
CHAPTER I 6
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE
The preceding chapter on the tenure status of the farm population of
the Southeast serves here to introduce a discussion of the changing structure
of race and class on the land. As an important population element in the
South the Negro began on the land. This chapter involves a discussion of
the economic mobility of the Negro. The present pattern of settlement
on the land, developed during the 80 years since abolition, is a function
of both racial competition and over-all economic factors.
RACE AND STATUS ON THE LAND
Race is an important element affecting land tenure throughout the
South, the only area in which Negro farmers are found in appreciable
numbers. The proportion of tenancy is still much less among the white
farmers of the census South than among the colored farmers, although
white tenancy is increasing. Thus in 1940, 41 percent of the census South's
white farmers were tenants as against 75 percent of the Negro farmers. On
the other hand, the rate of tenancy among Negroes has increased very little.
It was 75 percent in 1900, 77 percent in 1930, and again 75 percent in
1940. From 1900 to 1930 tenancy for white farmers had increased from
36 to 46 percent and then declined to 41 percent in 1940 in the census
South. In total numbers, white tenants exceeded colored by 942,655 to
506,638 in 1940. Thus about two-thirds of all tenants in the census South
were white in 1940.
In the Southeast proper, Negroes constituted in 1940 but a little more
than one-fourth, 26.9 percent, of the total number of farm operators
(Table 66). White owners and managers, amounting to more than one
million, made up the largest single group in agriculture, 44.5 percent of
all farm operators. The white share and cash tenants constituted the next
largest group, 19.3 percent. The largest group of colored operators were
croppers, 12.5 percent of the total, followed by share and cash tenants, con-
C231 ]
232 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 66. Number and Percentage Distribution of All Farm Operators
by Race and Tenure Groups, Southeast, 1940
Race and tenure
groups
Southeast
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Virginia
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
North Carolina
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri
bution
South Carolina
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Georgia
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Florida
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
All farm operators
Owners and managers.
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
All white operators
Owners and managers.
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
All nonwhite operators.
Owners and managers.
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
2,259,030
1,148,534
616,970
493.526
1,650,440
1,004,226
435,306
210,908
608,590
144,308
181,664
282,618
1U0.0
50.9
27.3
21.8
73.1
44.5
19.3
9.3
26.9
6.4
8.0
12.5
174,885
127,778
30,869
16,238
139,795
105,492
23,962
10,341
35,090
22,286
6,907
5,897
100.0
73.1
17.6
9.3
79.9
60.3
13.7
5.9
20.1
12.8
3.9
3.4
278,276
154,800
63,176
60,300
218,008
136,526
47,985
33,497
60,268
18,274
15,191
26,803
100.U
55.6
22.7
21.7
78.2
49.0
17.2
12.0
21.8
6.6
5.5
9.7
137,558
60,374
43,710
33,474
76,251
43,261
21,577
11,413
61,307
17,113
22,133
22,061
100.0
43.9
31.8
24.3
55.4
31.4
15.7
8.3
44.6
12.5
16.1
16.0
216,033
86,183
68,916
60,934
156,901
76,129
49,141
31,631
59,132
10,054
19,775
29,303
100.0
39.9
31.9
28.2
72.6
35.2
22.8
14.6
27.4
4.7
9.1
13.6
62,248
46,580
12,261
3,407
52,490
41,025
9.120
2,345
9,758
5,555
3,141
1,062
100.0
74.8
19.7
5.5
84.3
6S.9
14.6
3.8
IS. 7
8.9
5.1
1.7
Kentucky
Tennessee
Race and tenure
groups
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri
bution
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Number
Per-
cent-
age
distri-
bution
Number
Per-
cent-
distri-
bution
All farm operators. . . .
Owners and managers
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
All white operators . . .
Owners and managers
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
All nonwhite operators
Owners and managers
Share and cash ten-
ants
Croppers
252,894
169,070
60,291
23,533
247,347
165,900
59,421
22,026
5,547
3,170
870
1,507
100.0
66.9
23.8
9.3
97.8
65.6
23.5
8.7
2.2
1.3
0.3
0.6
247,617
147,882
58,245
41,490
219,642
140,986
51,036
27,620
27,975
6,896
7,209
13,870
100.0
59.7
23.5
16.8
88.7
56.9
20.6
11.2
11.3
2.8
2.9
5.6
231,746
95,522
94,854
41,370
158,382
79,809
56,537
22,036
73,364
15,713
38,317
19,334
100.0
41.2
40.9
17.9
68.3
34.4
24.4
9.5
31.7
6.8
16.5
8.4
291,092
98,273
67,336
125,483
131,552
74,802
33,377
23,373
159,340
23,471
33,959
102,110
100.0
33.8
23.1
43.1
45.2
25.7
11.5
8.0
54.8
8.1
11.6
35.1
216,674
101,232
67,776
47,666
159,649
90,660
54,445
14,544
57,025
10,572
13,331
33,122
100.0
46.7
31.3
22.0
73.7
41.8
25.2
6.7
26.3
4.9
6.1
15.3
150,007
60,840
49,536
39,631
90,423
49,636
28,705
12,082
59,584
11,204
20,831
27,549
100.0
40.6
33.0
26.4
60.3
33.1
19.1
8.1
39.7
7.5
13.9
18.3
Source: Sixteenth Census oj the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, United States Summary, Table VI, Supplement
for Southern States.
stituting 8 percent, and colored owners constituting 6.4 percent of all oper-
ators. Even here the white croppers, 9.3 percent of the total, exceeded
each of the last two colored groups. Table 66 shows the distribution by
States for the Southeast.
The significance of the share that Negroes now hold in southern agri-
culture cannot be understood apart from the historical trends. The whites
have been increasing their representation on the land by moving into the
lower levels of tenure. The Negroes in the period from emancipation to
around 1930 were engaged in improving their status on the land and in
leaving agriculture for other economic opportunity. The resulting urban
migration of the Negro was considered in Chapters 9 and 10, but Table
67 serves to show the trend by regions. After 19 10 the Negro rural popu-
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE
Table 67. Negro Rural and Urban Population by Census
Regions, 1 900-1 940
233
(In thousands)
Areas
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
Census South*
Rural
6,558
1,356
274
637
6,895
1,854
248
830
6,661
2,251
242
1,309
6,395
2,966
302
2,228
6,289
3,616
323
Northern and Western States
Rural
Urban
2,637
•Includes the census divisions. South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central.
Source: T. J. Woofter, Jr., "The Status of Racial and Ethnic Groups" in Recent Social Trends in the United States (New York:
McGraw-Hill, 1933), p. 567; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-6.
Table 68. Number and Percentage Distribution of Farm Operators by
Race and Tenure, and Number and Percentage Change,
Census South, i 920-1 940
1920
1940
Change 1920-1940
Race and tenure groups
Number
Percent
distribution
Number
Percent
distribution
Number
Percent
3.206,664
1,615,543
1,591,121
2,283.750
1,396,184
887,566
922,914
219,359
703,555
100.0
50.4
49.6
71.2
43.5
27.7
28.8
6.9
21.9
3,007,170
1.557,877
1,449,293
2,326,904
1,384,249
942,655
680,266
173,628
506,638
100.0
51.8
48.2
77.4
46.0
31.4
22.6
5.8
16.8
-199,494
- 57,666
-141,828
43,154
- 11,935
55,089
-242,648
- 45,731
-196.917
- 6.2
- 3.6
- 8.9
1.9
- 0.9
6.2
26 3
Owners and managers
20 9
-28.0
Source: Fourteenth Census of the United States, 1920, Agriculture, V, Table 16; Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agri-
culture, First Series, Table VI.
Jation of the South, in spite of high rural birth rates, showed a decline of
more than half a million. At the same time Negroes in both northern and
southern cities have grown by some 400 to 900 thousands each decade
after 19 10.
While Negro rural population reached its high point in 1910, Negro
population on the land in the census South was greatest in 1920 when non-
whites owned or managed, in round figures, 219,000 farms and operated
704,000 others as tenants. By 1940 nonwhite owners and managers de-
clined to 174,000 and tenants to 507,000 (Table 68). The South's white
owners in this same period (1920-1940) declined from 1,396,000 to
1,384,000 while white tenants increased from 888,000 to 943,000. Thus,
while colored tenants were decreasing by 197,000, white tenants were in-
creasing by 55,000. In this period of increasing difficulty in agriculture,
total nonwhite farm operators in the area decreased some 243,0005 total
white farm operators increased by 43,000 (Table 68).
234
ALL THESE PEOPLE
In seven southeastern cotton States,1 T. J. Woofter, Jr., has traced
these changes by race and tenure since emancipation (Table 69). Here,
total males engaged in agriculture increased from about 1,100,000 in i860
to 2,100,000 in 1930, or 91 percent. This was for the most part a white
increase since the Negroes in farming increased only about 28,000 or 3
percent, as against a white increment of 940,000 or nearly 300 percent.
In i860 Negroes made up 71.3 percent of those on the land; in 1930 they
constituted only 39.7 percent.2
Table 69. Color and Tenure Status of Males Engaged in Agriculture*
in Seven Southeastern Cotton States,** i860, 1910, 1930
Males
engaged in agriculture fin thous.
nds)
Color and tenure
1860t (Estimated)
1910
1930
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
White
1,132
325
325
807
807
100.0
28.7
71.3
2,105
1,180
527
418
235
925
124
477
324
100.0
56.0
25.1
19.8
11.1
44.0
5.9
22.7
15.4
2,102
1,267
484
581
202
835
107
486
242
100.0
60.3
23.0
27.7
9.6
39.7
5.1
23.1
11. S
'Exclusive of laborers on home farm.
••Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and South Carolina.
fin 1860 there was a very small number of free Negro and white tenants.
Source: T. J. Woofter, Jr., Landlord and Tenant on the Cotton Plantation (Washington, D. C. : WPA, Rural Research Division
1936), p. 11; United States Census 0} Agriculture.
In this time two entirely new classes came into being in southern agri-
culture— the white tenants and white hired laborers. Together these num-
bered in 1930 in the seven States 783,000 white agricultural workers who
were competing with some 728,000 Negro tenants and laborers for a place
on the land.
Negro farmers lost their proportional representation on the land dur-
ing this period but markedly improved their agricultural position. Though
their status upon emancipation was purely that of laborers, by 193° on^y
29 percent of the Negro males in Agriculture were laborers. Fifty-eight
percent had become tenants and 13 percent were owners. But among the
white farm operators the rise of a tenantry has meant a great decrease in
the proportion of ownership. After 19 10 white owners declined from
527,000 to 484,000 in 1930.3
Thus until 1930 the result of competition for the land presents a pic-
1 North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas.
aT. J. Woofter, Jr., Landlord and Tenant on the Cotton Plantation (Washington, D. C: WPA, Social
Research Division, 1936), pp. 11-12.
s Ibid., pp. 12-13.
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE 235
ture not altogether unfavorable to the Negro farmer. Present Negro own-
ers and tenants are all the descendants of slave laborers, while the white,
tenants and laborers are children and grandchildren, in the main, of lane
owners. For the Negro, tenancy, as Woofter points out, was a step in/ad-
vance of the previous generation; for the whites, it was a step backward.
Only about one-third of those gainfully employed among the Negroes
remained in agriculture in 1930. The changing racial distribution of popu-
lation in the South not only shows this cityward movement, it also indi-
cates that among those remaining on the land there has been a filtering
out from the main black belts into the white areas. The shrinkage of the
black belts is perfectly obvious, for their migrants have contributed to both
movements. Of 53 counties, all rural, having over 75 percent Negro popu-
lation in 1910, only 18 remained in that category in 1930.
Monroe N. Work, in a careful analysis, showed a shrinkage of the
black belts from 167,046 square miles in i860 to 166,083 square miles
in 1900 to 106,581 square miles in 1930. This was a decrease of ^6 per-
cent in seventy years. These black counties once held less than one-fifth of
the South's white population and more than one-half (55.8 percent) of the
total Negro population. By 1930 the black counties had dropped to 6.6 per-
cent of the total white population and less than one-third (31.4 percent)
of the total Negro population.4
In the black counties in the last 70 years the density per square mile
of rural population changed as follows:
i860 igoo I930
White . 6.9 10.7 1 1.6
Negro 12.6 21.9 22.9
The density per square mile of the rural population in the white counties
showed the following change:
i860 igoo I93°
White 10.9 16.7 22.5
Negro 2.4 2.8 3.7
Work concluded that while there had been a definite piling up of rural
Negro population in black belt counties, there had been a movement
into white county areas. There are 444 white counties in the South
which showed an increase in their Negro population from 1920 to 1930.
From this movement there resulted a more even distribution of the Negro
population over the rural South. On the basis of suitability of the land
for cotton production this seems a movement from richer to poorer soils.5
Monroe N. Work, "Racial Factors and Economic Forces in Land Tenure in the South," Social Forces,
XV (December, 1936), 206.
6 Ibid., pp. 207-208.
236 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Negroes have not taken a large part in the westward movement of cot-
ton production. Of the 600,000 farms in Texas and Oklahoma in 1940, a
little over 66,000 were operated by Negroes — some 11 percent. Practi-
cally all of these are found in the eastern parts of the States. Slaves were
introduced in east Texas before the State gained its independence, while it
is well known that in Oklahoma the five civilized tribes held slaves and
for that reason cast their lot with the Confederacy. The Eastern Coastal
Plains of Texas and the small Alluvial Area of Oklahoma showed 25 per-
cent of their farm operators colored, Texas Black Prairies and Oklahoma
Eastern Prairies had 15 percent colored in 1930. No other cotton areas in
the two States ranked as high as five percent. In South Texas, for example,
the development of Mexican casual labor has left little place for the en-
trance of the Negro cropper.
LARGE LANDHOLDINGS AND THE PLANTATION
The obverse side of tenancy is the concentration of land in large hold-
ings by the planters. Some studies have been made of large holdings in
the plantation area. The 1900 Census returned landlords according to the
number of rented farms owned and a special tabulation of plantations was
made from the 19 10 Census. Figure 143 shows the plantation areas and
Table 70 gives the figures for resident landlords owning five or more ten-
ant farms in seven main plantation States. In 1900 some 28,465 landlords
owned 304,156 tenant farms or an average of 10.7 apiece. In 19 10 there
were 35,621 landlords who owned 370,728 rented farms, or an average of
10.4 apiece. The table indicates a close correspondence between the two
periods in the concentration of ownership in blocks of 5 to 9 farms, 10 to
19 farms, and 20 farms and over. Thus those owning 5 to 9 farms made
up two-thirds of the landlord group and owned two-fifths of the rented
farms. On the other hand those owning 20 or more farms made up less
than 10 percent of the landlords but held approximately 30 percent of the
tenant farms.
A trend toward increased concentration of holdings is difficult to show
because of the tendency to change plantation laborers to the cropper status.
Table 70 indicates a 25 percent increase from 1900 to 19 10 in the number
of landlords and a 21.8 percent increase in the number of tenant farms
owned in blocks of five or more. The table shows comparable increases in
all ranges, but there is no method of showing whether additional landlords
came from cash renters of large tracts or consisted of new purchasers of
plantations. Nor can we tell from census data whether landlords from
1900 to 1 9 10 purchased additional tenant farms or saw their laborers climb
from the status of farm hands to that of croppers.
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE
Figure 143. The Plantation Areas of the United States bv
Major Crop Systems by Counties
237
SJi&ifiS.ssr1 by the u- s- Department of Agricuiture' based urseiy °n the *-*»
Table 70. Concentration of Ownership of Tenant Farms in Seven
Cotton States,* 1 900-1 910
Number of:
Landlords
Tenant farms .
Percentage of:
Landlords
Tenant farms .
Number of:
Landlords
Tenant farms
Percentage of:
Landlords
Tenant farms
Number of:
Landlords
Tenant farms
Percentage of:
Landlords
Tenant farms
Tenant Farms, 1900— Numerical Groups of:
All cla
28,465
304,156
100
100
5-9 Farms
18,974
124,169
66.6
40.8
10-19 Farms
Tenant Farms, 1910
6,811
87,931
23.9
28.9
20 Farms and over
2,680
92,056
9.5
30.3
*South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas
fisaEBSKtf &s&a^.ss^ °< »•*•-* iw
23 8 ALL THESE PEOPLE
In 1920 the Bureau of Agricultural Economics reported on landlord's
holdings of five or more rented farms in special areas.6 In every State ex-
cept Oklahoma and Texas this survey showed greater concentration than
the 1900 Census had shown. It must be remembered, however, that this
survey dealt with special areas. Whether increasing concentration would
indicate the greater efficiency of the landlord-tenant system in competition
with a system of small holdings, or would indicate that the Federal system
of long-time farm credits enacted in 191 6 has aided planters to add to
their holdings instead of assisting tenants to rise to ownership, we frankly
do not know. The mass data at hand are insufficient to test this hypothesis
of increased concentration of large holdings.7
Thanks to a recent study we know somewhat more about the planta-
tion. The study of 646 plantations operated by five or more families made
by the Works Progress Administration8 showed that the average planta-
tion consisted of 907 acres and was worth $28,700. Of its 907 acres, the
plantation had 385 acres in crops, 63 idle, 162 in pasture, 214 m woods
and 83 in waste land. Of this land 86 percent was owned by the landlord
and 14 percent rented by him. Forty-four percent of the crop land har-
vested was planted to cotton.
The typical plantation was occupied by the landlord1 and 14 additional
families divided as follows: 3 wage hands, 8 croppers, 2 share tenants, and
1 renter. Two of these were white and 12 colored. The average age of
family heads was 41 years; the average size of the family was 4, of whom
2 were employed on the farm.
The average gross income from the plantation was $9,500. Seven
thousand came from the sale of crops and livestock products, $900 from
AAA payments, $200 from land rented, and $1,400 from home-grown
food The net income amounted to $6,000, of which $2,600 went to the
landlord and $3,400 to the tenants. Allowing the landlord 6 percent on
his investment, this meant $850 for the landlord's labor or a capital return
of two dollars per acre.
Credit and interest charges loom large for both landlord and tenant.
Nearly one-half the landlords had long time debts averaging over 40 per-
cent of the appraised value of their land, buildings, animals, and machinery.
This trend is everywhere on the increase. From 1910 to 1928, the mort-
gage debt in seven Southeastern States almost quadrupled. Furthermore,
52 percent of the owners had short-term debts to meet current expenses on
""Farm Ownership and Farm Tenancy," Agricultural Yearbook (Washington, D. C, Department of
^C^B. V„£9«£ton and Tenancy," in Problem of * CoUon Economy (Dallas, Texas:
The Arnold Foundation, 1936), especially pp. 30-31.
8T. J. Woofter, Jr., op. cit., p. xxxi.
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE 239
the crop. The average amount borrowed was $2,300, just half the sum
necessary to meet annual expenses. On these accounts, the interest rate
ran high ; 10 percent on government loans, 15 percent on bank loans, and
16 percent on merchants' accounts. Most of the credit was furnished by
banks, government loans amounting to only 22 percent of the short-term
credit. All government loans went to landlords since they held the only
acceptable security— the crop lien. For the landlord, the combined inter-
est on loans and mortgage debt amounted to almost as much as his net
labor income, approximately $850 a year.
On a different level, the credit problems of the tenants are equally
serious. The high interest charges that tenants pay on the advances that
are given them depress their standard of living and prevent them from
rising in the tenure ladder. The amount advanced tenants averaged $12.80
per month and ran over a period of seven months. A study of 1 12 croppers
in North Carolina, outside the main plantation areas, showed that ad-
vances, mostly in cash, amounted to over 63 percent of the croppers' cash
farm income, while the interest paid amounted to more than 10 percent
of their total cash income.
RISE OF NEGRO OWNERS
Out of this situation an important class of Negro landowners has arisen
in the South. In the rise of the first Negroes to ownership interracial co-
operation as well as competition must have played its part. Emancipation
saw^ different classes of slaves in different positions to come into ownership.
Besides the free Negro who had been practically exiled from many regions
of the Deep South, there were the sub-overseers, the domestics, the skilled
and semiskilled artisans, with the crude field hands bringing up the rear.
In areas like Virginia these more favored groups were encouraged to buy
lands.
Whatever assistance Negroes encountered in a cotton system heavily
weighted against peasant proprietorship, it seems safe to assume that eco-
nomic factors offered barriers to an unpropertied group as great as those
offered by racial attitudes. The rise of a Negro peasantry out of slavery to
the ownership of 173,000 farms in the census South valued at 250 million
dollars in 1940 remains, on all accounts, an outstanding fact in the history
of race relations. As racial attitudes have tended to relax, economic condi-
tions appear to have increased the difficulties facing cotton producers.
Land purchase by Negroes, Arthur F. Raper9 has pointed out, is as
much social ritual as economic transaction. It may follow several patterns.
Often an old-style white landlord encourages a favorite tenant to buy a
small portion on his holdings. Sometimes he makes such a provision in
240 ALL THESE PEOPLE
his will. A debt-ridden owner may sell to a tenant he trusts, or an absentee
owner may grow tired of long-distance contacts and arrange a sale. In all
such transactions competitive relations are absent. Agents of loan com-
panies, banks, stores, etc., sell lands they have foreclosed but to the Negro
buyer they lack one important quality: they cannot afford him the pro-
tecting wing of a strong white friend in the community. Newer patterns
are more competitive and the new Negro more often makes the first over-
tures. In many communities he would still be regarded as foolhardy to
bid in open competition at an auction or sheriff's sale, but if tactful he
might find a white friend to bid for him.
Many things, accordingly, suggest that the rise of Negroes to land-
ownership is determined partly by local considerations. In its economic
aspects this movement is related to land values, which can best be studied
on a regional basis. The matter of interracial attitudes, it is felt, can best
be viewed on a community basis. The first is self-explanatory. In areas
of concentrated ownership of productive cotton lands the dense Negro
population is largely excluded from climbing into ownership by the higher
prices prevailing. Areas of lower land prices offer economic opportunity;
interracial cooperation of a kind begins the process; and a community of
Negro owners is formed which may slowly add to itself.
There were in 1930, 187 counties in the South in which Negro owner-
communities were sufficiently dense to give the county 400 or more Negro
owners. Virginia with 38 and Mississippi with 35 possessed the greatest
number of clustered areas as measured in terms of counties. In the com-
petitive situation Negroes rise to ownership mainly in the poorer land areas
that skirt the main plantation zones. Here the proportion of Negro owners
in 1930 was more than double that in the more specialized cotton zones.
Thus in the Southeast in 1930 48.7 percent of farmers in the 30 main cot-
ton zones were colored. but only 11.2 percent owned their farms. In the
other areas where only 32.4 percent of operators were colored as high as
22.6 percent owned their farms.10
Usually the Negro owner acquires land that is agriculturally less de-
sirable than the average of his county. The type of land Negroes secure in
competition was examined by racial comparison of average per acre values
in the 62 counties, covering the main areas of Negro landownership. In
only 9 of the 62 counties in 1930 did the Negroes' land values exceed the
county average for farm lands. This condition was found in a group of long
settled Virginia counties and in areas where the whites had largely left the
9 Arthur F. Raper, Preface to Peasantry (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1936),
P' "Rupert B. Vance, The Negro Agricultural Worker. Prepared for the Committee on Negroes and
Economic Reconstruction (Nashville: Tennessee, 1935, mimeographed), Chap. Ill, p. 126, Table I.
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE
24r
Table 71. Comparison of White Tenants with Nonwhite Farm Owners
and Tenants in Farm Acreage, Values per Farm and
per Acre, Southeast, 1940
Area
Acreage per farm
Whit,
ten-
ants
Nonwhite
operators
All Ten-
owners ants
Per farm value of
land and buildings
White
ten-
ants
Nonwhite
operators
All Ten-
owners ants
Per farm value
of land
White
ten-
ants
Nonwhite
operators
All Ten-
owners ants
Per acre value of land
White
ten-
ants
Nonwhite
operators
All Ten-
owners ants
Ratio nonwhite
tenants to
owners per
acre value
of land
Southeast.
Virginia
North Carolina . . .
South Carolina. . . .
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
72
90
62
71
93
102
67
66
73
59
80
56
58
46
48
47
84
46
45
53
70
74
63
51
38
59
47
45
73
42
41
33
42
27
26
28
32,108
3,005
2,449
2,174
1,853
2,299
2,480
2,232
1,652
1,346
2,080
2,081
31,393
31,108
,368
,667
,202
,424
,098
,626
.581
,208
,341
.561
435
,476
,946
,270
,230
869
,912
,208
764
897
,013
,042
31,524
1,901
1,733
1,507
1,285
1,747
1,757
1,635
1,234
1,005
1,631
1,635
3 938
730
1,107
794
945
750
1,057
1,100
851
977
1,179
1,060
3 833
974
1,457
930
898
641
1,353
945
574
677
794
823
321
21
28
21
14
17
26
25
17
17
20
29
316
16
23
17
11
16
23
21
12
13
19
21
322
17
31
21
12
15
33
28
14
25
31
29
137.5
106.2
134.8
123.5
109.1
93.8
143.5
133.3
116.7
192.3
163.2
138.1
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, Table VI, Supplement for Southern States.
land as in Beaufort, South Carolina, and Liberty, Georgia. In 35 of the
62, total average land values fell below $22.50 per acrej in 42 counties
Negro land values fell below this margin.11
It is possible from census figures of 1940 (Table 71) to suggest how
much Negro owners have advanced in economic status beyond their tenant
colleagues. This comparison showed that colored owners uniformly ex-
ceeded the proverbial 40 acres by 18 acres while the tenants fell under it
by 2 acres. Yet tenants uniformly exceeded owners in value of land by
$22 to $16 per acre. The Negro owner usually has a better house, more
equipment, and a larger farm that consisted, however, of poorer land, val-
ued at less per acre.
Similar contrasts between tenants by race serve to bring out some of
the possible effects of competition. This comparison shows that on the
average Negro tenants tilled the more valuable land but white tenants
operated the more valuable farms. This again was due to the larger acre-
age worked by white tenants. For the whole Southeast in 1940 the value
of tenant land and buildings per acre averaged $29 for both whites and
Negroes. In Virginia, Georgia, Florida, and Alabama, however, white
tenants worked land of greater value per acre. The average value of land
and buildings per farm in the Southeast was $2,108 for white tenants to
$1,108 for Negro tenants. Table 71 shows variations by States for the
Southeast.
Although the differences were not great, it seems the white tenants
emerged with the better of the comparison. True, their farms seemed less
11 Ibid., pp. 166-176.
242 ALL THESE PEOPLE
fertile on an acreage basis but they were larger, permitting more efficient
operation. Their farm buildings, including residences, were of greater
value, and they possessed more farm implements and machinery.
THE PATTERN OF INTERRACIAL AND CLASS SETTLEMENT
How integration alternates with but never completely gives way to
segregation of the races on the land can be seen by reference to the accom-
panying maps. It was the historic fate of the Negro to be settled in the
South's most fertile areas, those best suited to cotton production. White
farmers on their side had no racial competition in their occupancy of the
Appalachian Highlands and some upland areas. Outside these areas, farm-
ers, white and black, owners, tenants, and croppers occupy the land with
varying degrees of concentration.
White owners are thus much more numerous in the less productive
area of hilly land and subsistence farming than in the Cotton Belt. Colored
owners are not so numerous anywhere but stretch clear across the South
wherever Negro farmers are found. White tenants owning working stock
are more evenly distributed over the South than the tenure class of any
race. Where colored tenants are numerous white tenants are generally few.
Colored croppers are the most highly concentrated o£ ^all groups, being
found mainly in the Yazoo Delta of the Mississippi and adjacent alluvial
lands in Arkansas. Outside the Cotton Belt colored croppers hardly find
employment but white tenants are widespread, being found even in areas
of subsistence agriculture (Figures 144-149).
Many areas are still to be found in which Negroes occupy the land in
overwhelming majority. Nine counties in the Mississippi Delta and ten
in the Alabama Black Belt furnish areas in which 84 percent or more of
all farm operators were colored in 1930. The Mississippi Site Bluffs and
Uplands (11 counties), South Carolina Upper Coastal Plains (7 counties),
and the Louisiana Bottoms (17 counties) furnish the other areas with a
majority of Negro farm operators.12
Many of the main cotton areas in the Southwest have few Negro farm-
ers. In the Southeast, the areas most largely given over to white operators
are Flatwoods, Wiregrass, Limestone Valleys, and Piedmont areas which
because of relative infertility or recent development were not settled with
slaves. The Alabama Limestone Valleys (7 counties) and Wiregrass (8
counties) each had 76 percent white farmers. The Georgia Piedmont and
Upper Coastal Plains (21 counties) and the Tennessee Bluff and Uplands
(17 counties) show 65 percent or more white farmers. For the main cotton
growing subregions in the Southeast, white farmers in 1930 made up 61.5
percent of all farm operators.
12 For these areas with discussion of changes by migration see the author's chapter on The Old Cotton
Belt, in Carter Goodrich, et al., Migration and Economic Opportunity, pp. 139-147.
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE
Figures 144-149. Farm Operators by Color and Tenure,
the Census, South, 1935
243
4£w
^Jpri-c^tE%
:.IJ.i;!J r ' ■' li | i,:,.rrr
Mr^My
■ARMS OPERATED BY WHITE OWNERS ftt
Lfj-fff AND PARI
r-OWNERS Wr-HI.'l',: 11
uary 1. 1935 ttjj£>^ijffl
'wW
&ZiL.
-rrf+P Number. Jar
ZT-Si5i£jE3l
j^^^^i
fe:;:p£||:;-:;
* <
siv^%£''
'Dp
jsB
•
-. vf§i
IflS^lilp*
ill
? Eaeft do*
. SBO/Mraa
KJJ
r*J\i-Ji--'.v-^Mfei.----"
1 :'-^w7
vJ-i'1---'-'^-''
W "
SHHIff"'""""
ENTOF "V
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Negatives 31 332-3 1337.
On the other hand, many agricultural areas of main Negro settlement
are now entirely outside the cotton zones. Sea islands and coastal strips
along South Carolina and Georgia furnish areas of unique Negro peasantry,
small Negro yeomanry surviving in an area once given over to large rice
and sea island cotton estates.
THE DEPRESSION TREND, I93O-I94.O
The decade of the great depression, as we have seen, reversed the trend
toward tenancy. The impact of these changes, concentrated in the Southern
regions, showed important racial differences. For the Nation farm owners
244
ALL THESE PEOPLE
increased by 3.7 percent ; in the Southeast white owners and managers in-
creased 10.9 percent but colored owners decreased by 3.7 percent. From
1930 to 1940, 101,862 new white farm owners entered agriculture in the
Southeast — an increase of 11.4 percent. At the same time 151,925 colored
tenants and croppers and 84,079 white croppers dropped out of the ranks
(Table 72). In both southern regions the loss was heaviest among the
croppers. In the Southwest 64.5 percent of the cropper farms disappeared
from the rolls; in the Southeast, 23.6 percent. Losses were heaviest among
colored operators, 31.1 percent disappearing in the Southwest and 20.6
percent in the Southeast. This means in round numbers in the two regions
that some 234,300 cropper farms and 193,700 farms operated by colored
operators dropped from the census rolls (See Table 64).
Table 72. Distribution of White and Colored Farm Operators by
Tenure, Southeast, 1930 and 1940
White
Colored
Year and tenure
White
Colored
Year and tenure
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
1930
All farm operators .
1,622,695
894,377
10,825
717,493
294,987
100.0
55.1
0.7
44.2
18.2
766,111
149,354
550
616,207
351,409
100.0
19.5
0.1
80.4
45.9
1940
All farm operators. .
1,650,440
996,239
7,987
646,214
210,908
100.0
60.4
0.5
39.1
12.8
608, S90
144,021
287
464,282
282,618
100.0
23.7
*
Croppers
76.3
46.4
•Less than 0.1 percent.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Agriculture, First Series, press release of March 18, 1941.
The white tenant losses in the Southeast were concentrated among crop-
pers, 28.5 percent disappearing from the lists. White share and cash ten-
ants showed slight gains of 3 percent, numbering some 12,800. Thus as
Table 72 shows, white owners among white operators increased from 55.1
to 60.4 percent of the total, and all tenants declined, croppers declining
from 18.2 to 12.8 percent of all white operators. For the colored operators
losses were severe for both tenure groups amounting to 19.6 percent of the
croppers and 31.4 percent of other tenants.
In every Southeastern State white owners made the greatest gains,
ranging from an increase of 6.4 percent in Alabama to one of 16.3 per-
cent in Mississippi (Table 73). Negro owners lost 3.7 percent, gaining in
only three states — South Carolina, Mississippi, and Louisiana. The great-
est losses were those of the Negro share and cash tenants, losses that ranged
from 17.3 percent in Virginia to over 40 percent in Mississippi, Arkansas,
and Kentucky. White croppers also lost in every State, least in Virginia
and North Carolina, but over 35 percent in South Carolina, Georgia, Ala-
bama, and Arkansas. Negro croppers lost farms in every State — least in
Mississippi and most in Georgia (41 percent), and Kentucky (52 percent).
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE 245
Table 73. Changes in Land Tenure by Race, Southeast, 1 930-1 940
White farm operators
Owners and managers
Share and cash tenants
Croppers
State
1930
Change 1930-1940
1930
Change 1930-1940
1930
Change 1930-1940
Number
Number
Percent
Number
Number
Percent
Number
Number
Percent
North Carolina . .
South Carolina . .
Florida
905,202
98,115
122,359
39,100
70,055
36,564
153,888
124,271
75,021
64,327
78,165
43,337
99,024
7,377
14,167
4,161
6,074
4,461
12,012
16,715
4,788
10,475
12,495
6,299
10.9
7.5
11.6
10.6
8.7
12.2
7.8
13.4
6.4
16.3
16.0
14.5
422,506
22,366
46,190
23,513
47,350
7,936
56,373
52,503
50,983
33,147
55,021
27,124
12,800
1,596
1,795
- 1,936
1,791
1,184
3,048
- 1 ,467
5,554
230
576
1,581
3.0
7.1
3.9
- 8.2
3.8
14.9
5.4
- 2.8
10.9
0.7
- 1.0
5.8
294,987
10,456
34,286
17,893
51,404
3,423
27,134
33,745
37,562
32,301
29,569
17,214
- 84,079
115
- 789
- 6,480
- 19,773
- 1,078
- 5,108
- 6,125
- 15,526
- 8,928
- 15,025
- 5,132
-28.5
- 1.1
- 2.3
-36.2
-38.5
-31.5
-18.8
-18.2
-41.3
-27.6
-50.8
-29.8
Nonwhite farm operators
Owners and managers
Share and cash tenants
Croppers
State
1930
Change 1930-1940
1930
Change 1930-1940
1930
Change 1930-1940
Number
Number
Percent
Number
Number
Percent
Number
Number
Percent
North Carolina..
South Carolina . .
Florida
149,904
24,525
19,734
16,063
11,153
5,665
4,190
7,866
15,954
22,719
11,478
11,557
- 5,596
- 2,239
- 1,460
1,050
- 1,099
110
- 1,020
970
- 241
752
906
647
- 3.7
- 9.1
- 7.4
6.5
- 9.9
- 1.9
-24.3
-12.3
- 1.5
3.3
- 7.9
6.1
264,798
8,351
22,334
30,316
26,186
3,985
1,798
10,713
50,303
57,177
22,636
30,999
- 83,134
- 1,444
- 7,143
- 8,183
- 6,411
844
- 928
- 3,504
- 11,986
- 23,218
- 9,305
- 10,168
-31.4
-17.3
-32.0
-27.0
-24.5
-21.2
-51.6
-32.7
-23.8
-40.6
-41.1
-32.8
351,409
6,797
34,805
31,046
49,450
1,393
3,116
16,559
27,572
102,992
45,465
32,214
- 68,791
900
- 8,002
- 8,985
- 20,147
- 331
- 1,609
- 2,689
- 8.238
- 882
- 12,343
- 4,665
-19.6
-13.2
-23.0
-28.9
-40.7
-23.8
-51.6
-16.2
-29.9
- 0.8
-27.1
-14.5
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940. Agriculture First Series United States Summary, Table VI (Supplemental);
United States Census of Agriculture 1935, Ch. Ill, Table 7 (Supplemental).
What do these changes mean? Large numbers of tenants undoubtedly
were displaced by agricultural failures, increased mechanization, and the
farm program of the depression. Have these tenants left the farm areas?
Some students hold that in plantation areas large numbers of croppers have
not left agriculture but have simply been transferred to day labor status.
In such cases these families, would occupy the same houses but now work as
gang labor on the plantations rather than tend a cropper strip. Census
enumerations for 1930 and 1940 are not comparable in this field leaving
changes in doubt. Calculated on the 1930 basis, changes in the numbers of
farm wage hands and foremen show that this group decreased in every
State in the Southeast except Arkansas and Florida. For the Southeast the
number of farm laborers decreased 7 percent. In three States the propor-
tionate decline exceeded that of all farm operators amounting to as much as
17 percent in Virginia and Kentucky. Instead of suggesting that croppers
have become farm laborers these figures lead us to conclude that to the
246
ALL THESE PEOPLE
displacement of some 70,000 share tenants and 153,000 croppers is to be
added that of 56,000 farm laborers. With the unemployed and unknown
included, farm laborers increased 2 percent in the region. Even so, the
flight from the land among the lower level tenants was thus a real phenom-
enon, concentrated mainly among the Negroes (Table 74).
Much has been written to explain the displacement of tenants and farm
laborers during this period. Mechanization has played a part, as we have
seen, but reductions also can be laid to the great decrease in cotton produc-
tion forced by the depression and stabilized under the quota regulations
of the AAA. Tenants and laborers forced out of agriculture by the fail-
ures of landowners in 1930 were prevented from returning to staple pro-
duction by regulations which in the Bankhead Act for 1934 reduced aver-
age cotton acreage 40 percent. In previous depressions these displaced
workers lacked many alternatives, but in the 1930's they found relief and
made-work available with various alphabetical agencies, CWA, PWA,
WPA, etc. Thus the pressure on the land was drained off into nonfarm
employments and village and urban residence.
Table 74. Farmers and Farm Laborers, 14 Years of Age and Over,
Southeast, 1 930-1 940*
Area
Farmers,
managers,
and
foremen
1930
Farmers
and
managers
1940
Percent
change
1930-1940
Wage
workers
1930
Wage
workers
and
foremen
1940
Percent
change
1930-1940
Unpaid family labor
Percent
1930
1940
change
1930-1940
North Carolina..
South Carolina. .
2,316,047
152,350
271,777
153,161
251,762
54,923
235,390
235,428
253,526
306,905
240,234
160,591
2,005,785
129,192
248,388
123,795
200,049
42,442
207,641
207,550
213,212
275,659
192,802
140,832
-13
-15
- 9
-19
-21
-23
-12
-12
-16
-10
-20
-12
826,716
81 ,569
92,726
79,990
112,277
61,676
67,950
68,095
78,558
53,965
59,107
70,803
842,525
68,103
80,902
72,595
106,350
66,096
56,709
60,610
71,852
49,379
69,948
68,122
2
-17
-13
- 9
- 5
7
-17
-11
- 9
- 8
18
- 4
898,868
33,537
116,905
92,660
112,477
13,641
49,273
63,081
130,098
161,511
70,617
55,068
633,921
29,122
81,435
66,481
71,129
9,082
55,267
50,910
74,121
97,175
44,503
42,882
-30
-13
-30
-28
-37
—33
12
-19
-43
-40
-37
-22
•Gainful workers 10-13 years of age have been subtracted in each occupational classification from 1930 Census data to make
figures comparable with 1940 Census returns which list gainful workers 14 and over. Note that in 1930 farm foremen were
included with managers, in 1940 with wage workers. Number of workers in the Southeast in 1940 is corrected to include emer-
gency workers in agriculture and a proportional share of workers with "occupations not reported" and therefore slightly exceeds
the sum of workers in individual States where this correction was not applied.
Source: Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930. Population, IV, State Tables 4, 23; Sixteenth Census of the United States.
1940, Series P-ll, State Summaries, Table3 1, 2.
Before 1930 we could have said that with all the unfavorable economic
conditions visited upon southern agriculture the Negro had continued the
twofold movement of improving his status on the land and leaving it for
other opportunities. Increasing population pressure still served to force
white increases on the land. The problem of racial attitudes, however se-
rious, is equalled by the common problems of tenancy in which both races
share increasing disabilities. In the 40 years since 1900 white owners and
RACE, CLASS AND TENURE 247
tenants have shown large increases. Negro landowners, probably the most
tenacious of all tenure groups, were no greater in number in 1940 than
in 1900; Negro tenants however declined in the period.
The Negro, many now feel, is bound to continue this process of grad-
ually leaving the land. In spite of his agrarian background, the ideal of the
Negro as a satisfied peasant farmer is not being realized. It is hardly accu-
rate to say that racial competition has pushed him off the land, for the
white farmer has migrated in almost equal numbers though smaller pro-
portions. Both have been subjected to the "push" of a failing agriculture;
and both alike have responded to the "pull" of industrial employment.
Deficient in capital and in training, with his deficiencies often accounted
for in terms of antagonistic attitudes, the Negro's position has been well
described by Charles S. Johnson in the following terms: "The Negro is
the marginal man in industry, since industry came to power; he is the
marginal man in agriculture, as agriculture's power declines."
Displaced in greater proportions during the depression, larger per-
centages of Negro tenants and farm laborers went on the relief rolls. Thus
the depression may have initiated a trend toward the liquidation of the
cropper system. The Negro, long accepted as basically rural in background
and agricultural in occupation, was gradually making the transition to un-
skilled labor in urban and industrial life. The loss of their position on the
lowest rungs of the agricultural ladder will prove an unmitigated misfor-
tune to the members of this group only if they are unable to gain a foot-
hold in the ranks of industry. Here the outlook, pessimistic enough before
the war for the mass of white southern workers, is known to be darker for
the Negro. Much of this is due to his own lack of training for which the
community bears a deep responsibility, and much is due to deep-seated color
prejudices which, instead of being confined to the South, is sanctioned by
many labor unions that in their public programs and statements draw no
color line. Many feel, however, that the key is still to be found in per-
sonnel policies and offices of major corporations. Changes in employment
practices initiated under the pressure of war may prove important in devel-
oping new attitudes toward the Negro in industry. In the meantime, south-
ern agriculture, which had benefited somewhat from the mass exodus of
World War II, offered slight prospects to the unpropertied of either race
who returned from the services. For those who can bring capital, skill,
and science to the task, southern agriculture will offer challenge and
opportunity after the War.
PART III
POPULATION AND THE INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY
CHAPTER 17
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
Although the question of social objectives is highly controversial, subject
largely to individual and class interpretation, one conclusion can be gener-
ally accepted. This is simply that society should survive. Among the ob-
jectives that will enhance the survival-value of any economy there are two
that stand out clearly: (1) The full utilization of human and material re-
sources} and (2) the logical and fairly equitable distribution of incomes.
By "fairly equitable distribution" we do not mean equal distribution of
wealth and incomes but a range which in addition to reflecting individual
contributions to the total welfare allows for a continuation of the economy
at a level high enough to secure the objectives of full utilization of re-
sources and thus of survival.1
That such objectives are far from being realized in the United States
is evident from preceding discussions. The weight and seriousness of this
problem is no longer evaded. Writing in 1936, John Maynard Keynes
said: "The outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are
its failure to provide for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable
distribution of wealth and income." "It is certain," he added, "that the
world will not much longer tolerate the unemployment which, apart from
brief intervals of excitement, is associated — and in my opinion inevitably
associated — with present day capitalistic individualism."2
It is the purpose of this section to examine the regional distribution of
income, industry, and employment with a view to ascertaining what would
be involved in a fuller use of material and human resources for the regions
and the Nation. In succeeding chapters the effects of industrialization are
examined in case studies of rural areas in the Southern Piedmont.
I am indebted to Langston T. Hawley for the phrasing of the above statement.
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, pp. 372, 381.
[248]
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME
249
We have discussed at length the preponderant agricultural economy,
source of many of the ills that trouble the Southeast. No region can reason-
ably object to a geographic division of labor that adjusts production to re-
sources, meets the needs of the Nation, and returns an equitable flow of
income to the regional and occupational groups involved. It is this last cri-
terion that our regional and occupational hierarchy fails to meet. The
Southeast's per capita income is usually about 60 percent of the Nation's.
Realized income in 1940 ranged from $198 per person in Mississippi to
$818 in Connecticut, a spread that hardly seems justifiable unless one part
of the country is devoting itself to the accomplishment of unneeded tasks
in an unskilled manner. The Far West and the Northeast attained an aver-
age income of $692 and $685 per person but with a national average of
$546, the Southeast fell to $317 per capita, below both the Southwest and
Northwest. Figure 150 shows that every State with an average income
below $350 was southern except North Dakota. Florida and Virginia were
highest in the region with per capita incomes of $457 and $408 respectively.
Regional wealth is much more difficult to estimate for in addition to
property owned by citizens it includes the value of all physical properties
and capital equipment lying within each State. Unmined mineral resources
are not included except as they have affected the estimated value of real
Figure 150. Realized Income per Capita, United States, 1940
Source: National Industrial Conference Board; Economic Record (III, 6, March, 194.1). Sixteenth
Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-3, No. 3.
ISO
ALL THESE PEOPLE
estate. The values of the United States Navy and all coinage and bullion
are included for the national total but not distributed by states. Wealth
thus estimated (Figure 151) shows similar regional disparities, ranging in
1936 from $6,51 1 per capita in Nevada to $736 in Mississippi. The South-
east possessed a per capita wealth of $1,189, hardly more than one-half of
the Nation's average. Virginia with $2,017 was the only southern State to
rise above $1,300 in the measure. Inequalities in wealth are characteristic
of the capitalistic system, a gap which some feel need not be so great in re-
gard to income. Wealth, however, represents physical equipment necessary
for the production of future income as well as the accumulation from past
incomes. Thus, while migration and the movement to new occupations
should operate to redistribute income on a more adequate basis, it would
take a long time for this process to equalize per capita wealth.
Figure 151. Estimated National Wealth per Capita, United States, 1936
Source: National Industrial Conference Board; Studies in Enterprise and Social Progress (New York,
'939). PP- 62-64.
While such disparities have natural antecedents in historical and eco-
nomic causes, they find less justification in social values and social theory.
The maldistribution of income continually threatens the functioning of our
economic system, while malnutrition and low standards continually threaten
the replacement of adequate human resources.
Income in our economy goes over into purchasing power whose circu-
lation in the medium of money performs a twofold function: (1) It helps
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 251
Figure 152. Retail Sales per Capita, United States, 1939
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Census of Business, Preliminary Summary, December
17, 1940.
to keep the economic mechanism going by continually calling forth sup-
plies of goods and services, and (2) it replenishes human resources whose
biological efficiency and cultural adequacy result from the degree of wise
consumption of such goods and services. With certain qualifications, there-
fore, Figure 152 on per capita retail sales in 1939 is offered as a measure
of underconsumption in areas suffering from low income. The states ranged
from an average of $129 per person spent in retail trade in Mississippi to
$561 in Nevada. By regions (Figure 153), this measure of consumption
varied from $193 per capita in the Southeast to $443 in the Far West.
With other qualifications as to changes in the price level, Figure 153
serves to estimate the extent of recorded damage done our economic sys-
tem by the long depression 1929- 1939. Retail sales declined from $394 to
$319, or 19 percent in the Nation as compared with 22.3 percent in the
Northwest. In the Southeast they fell from $222 to $193 per person.
These inequalities should not be considered exclusively in terms of regional
grievances although there probably exists no economic theory competent to
silence such attitudes. More important, they should be considered as in-
juries to our ongoing economic system. Leon Henderson, before World
War II, said that for the South to attain the national level of living would
give the national economy an additional market worth $10 billions an-
252
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 153. Retail Sales per Capita, United States and Six
Major Regions, 1929 and 1939
1*2*
9 100 20O 300 400
DOLLARS
Source: See Figure 152 and Fifteen/A Census of the United States, 1930, Retail Trade.
nually. In this connection we can consider the billions that were spent,
loaned, and lost from 191 8-1932 in the fruitless search for foreign markets.
THE COMPONENTS OF REGIONAL INCOME
An interesting comparison has been made between the normal curve of
distribution of abilities and attainments among human beings and the dis-
tribution of income in our economic system.3 The normal curve shows that
the highest proportions of our population fall in the middle or average
range, neither exceptionally superior inor inferior but average. The curve
of income distribution in 1935-36 shows that the highest proportion of the
families fell not in the middle but in the lowest range of income. Thus 35
percent of all nonrelief families had an average of less than $1,000 annual
income, 60 percent less than $1,500, and 76 percent less than $2,000
(Figure 154).
Figure 155 shows the regional distribution of income found by the Con-
sumer Research Project in 1935-36. New England and the Pacific show
8 William F. Ogburn and Meyer F. Nimkoff, Sociology (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 194.0), p. 597.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
253
Figure 154. Distribution of Families by Income Level and by Percentage
of Aggregate Income, United States, i 935-1 936
INCOME LEVEL AGGREGATE INCOME
FAMILIES
j -
$10,000 a over
7.500 -10,000
ssmmsssssi
liiliiiiiiiiiii
iiiiitiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii
miiiniiiiiiiiiinmiiiiii
5,000 • 7,500
4,500 • 5,000
4,000 - 4,500
3,500 - 4,000
3,000 • 3,500
2,500 - 3,000
2,000 - 2,500
»°q - 2.000 iwroro
j_
'iitiiiiiiiiiii
1.000 • 1.500
500 - 1,000
UNDER $500
SSS.mtUMSmU
$ $$$s$$ $ $s$$s
J_
J
10
30 20 10 0 0
rtUCCNT
Source: Consumer Incomes in the United States, National Resources Board (August, 1938), p. 3.
30
the most equitable distribution of family incomes with those under $1,000
making up one-fourth of the total. In the southern regions, exclusive of
those on relief, families with less than $1,000 annual income made up over
fifty percent of the total.
The basic dichotomy in income as in fertility is that between the farm
and urban populations. Table 75 shows this trend of farm and nonfarm
income from 19 10 to 1940. Per capita farm income in this period ranged
from 45 to 17 percent of average nonfarm income. Since 1933 farm income
has been augmented by government payments but the low income of many
regions is still due to the preponderance of farm people in the population.
This differential is increased in the Southeast where farmers have the low-
est incomes of all. Figure 156 indicates a range in the 1940 per capita
gross income for the farm population from $126 in Alabama to $1,004 i»
California. The Southeast had $166 per capita as compared with $764 in
the Far West.
The regional aspect of this dualism in our economy is shown in Figures
157 and 158 which compare the income distribution among farm families
with that of families living in cities of over 100,000, by regions. Incomes
in cities in the North Central and Pacific States approach the normal curve
254
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 155. The Percentage Distribution of All Non-Relief Families
by Income Level within Each Region, United States and
Five Regions, i 935-1 936
Source: Consumer Incomes in the United States, i935-'93^, National Resources Committee (August,
1938), Table 8, p. 2J and Tables 13B, 17B, and 18B, pp. 98-99.
of distribution suggesting that economic returns in these areas are more
nearly commensurate with the normal incidence of human industry and
abilities. While the South's cities show a larger proportion in the higher
income brackets than the region's farms, 33 percent of the urban families
have incomes below $1,000.
The contrast is with the farm incomes where over 52 percent of the
families receive incomes of less than $1,000 as compared with only 1$ Per"
cent in large cities in the Nation. Not only does the South have the largest
proportions in agriculture, but the region has the lowest farm incomes, over
65 percent of farm families receiving less than $1,000 per year. This may
be compared with the distribution in the Pacific, New England, and North
Central States where about 35 percent of farm families fall in this low
group.
The analysis of income by States developed by John A. Slaughter of
the National Industrial Conference Board for 1935 enables us to calculate
the proportion of regional income derived from various sources. Figure
159 shows that 56 percent of the Nation's estimated income of $390 per
capita came in 1935 from the broad distributive and social group (includ-
ing finance and government), 30 percent from manufacturing and mechani-
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
255
Figure 156. Per Capita Gross Income (Including Benefit Payments),
Farm Population, United States, 1940
3S
Source: Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, "Gross Farm Income and
Government Payments" (May 26, 1941), Table 5; Sixteenth Census of the ■ United States, 1940,
Series P-10, No. 2.
Table 75. Income Per Farm and Income Per Person on Farms and Not
on Farms, United States, 1910-1940
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
Net income
from agricul-
ture per farm
(1)
(Dollars)
Net income
from agricul-
ture per person
on farms
(2)
(Dollars)
Income per
person not
on farms
(3)
(Dollars)
Excluding
703
617
679
686
701
679
777
,282
,487
,536
,306
587
749
882
883
,085
,048
,016
,073
,077
government
139
123
135
137
141
137
157
259
305
321
266
120
154
181
182
224
217
211
223
224
payments
482
468
483
521
482
502
579
638
670
762
875
718
715
812
788
810
856
818
828
870
Year
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
Net income
from agricul-
ure per farm
fl)
(Dollars)
823
551
355
431
466
672
781
915
741
751
792
Net income
from agricul-
ture per person
on farms
(2)
(Dollars)
172
115
75
91
99
144
165
192
154
154
161
Income per
person not
on farms
(3)
(Dollars)
760
60S
442
417
487
540
626
670
625
657
700
Including government payments
448
525
745
819
963
807
865
902
95
112
160
173
202
167
177
183
417
487
540
626
670
625
657
700
Source: The Farm Income Situation, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture (August 1941), p. 20.
256
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 157. The Percentage Distribution of Rural Farm Families (Non-
Relief) bv Income Levels, within Each Region, United States
and Five Regions, 1935-1936
Source: See Figure IJJ.
Figure 158. The Percentage Distribution of Large City Families (Non-
Relief) bv Income Levels within Each Region, United States
and Five Regions, i 935-1 936
3C
Source: See Figure 15$.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
257
Figure 159. Percentage Distribution of Productive Income by Origin,
United States and Six Major Regions, 1935
UNITED STATES
Hi
ffiffiffiy*
NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
SOUTHWEST
383888088^^
WAmmv///////////////////^^^^
v/sao/////////////////////^^^^
MIDDLE STATES
mmmmwy////////M^^
NORTHWEST
V//A^Ay///////////7////////////////A
FAR WEST
mmw///////////,vM^^
'
1 1
'///////A
EXTRACTIVE
Manufacturing a mechanical
DISTRIBUTIVE & SOCIAL
1
20
40
60
PFRCENT
Source: John A. Slaughter, Income Received in the Various States, 1929-1935, National Industrial
Conference Board (New York: 1937), Table 23; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1937, Table II.
cal, and approximately 14 percent from extractive occupations.. The esti-
mated per capita income of the Southeast, $222 in that year, was the lowest
in the Nation. Fifty-three percent of the region's income came from the
distributive and social economy, 22 percent from manufacturing and me-
chanical, and 25 percent from extractive occupations.
The master table (Table 76), can be considered with the maps (Fig-
ures 160 to 167), to explore the sources of regional income by various
branches of industry. The Northeast, which ranked first in total per capita
income, ranked first in per capita income from manufacturing, finance, and
four other branches, second in income from five other sources. It came
last only in income received from agriculture. The Far West, which ranked
second in total per capita income, ranked first in five branches and second
in four. The Southeast, which ranked sixth, ranked fourth only in agri-
culture and manufacturing, fifth in construction, and last in other counts.
258
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figures 160 to 167 compare the States in the proportion of income
derived from seven principal sources: agriculture, mining, manufacturing,
trade and finance, government, service, and transportation. Possibly the
most significant map in the series is Figure 160, showing the percentage of
income received from agriculture. The Nation received 11.1 percent from
this source j by regions it varied from 4.5 in the Northeast to 23.1 percent
in the Northwest. By States it ranged from 34 percent in Mississippi to
only 3.4 percent in Rhode Island. Virginia, with 15.8 percent of its income
derived from agriculture, appears less dependent on the extractive econ-
omy than any other Southeastern State.
Table 76
Total and Per Capita Production Income Received in Various
Branches of Industry, United States and the Six
Major Regions, 1935
(Total Income in Millions of Dollars, per Capita Income in Dollars)
United
Middle
States
Nort
least
Southeast
Sout
lwest
States
Northwest
Far West
Industry
Per
Per
Per
Per
Per
Per
Per
Total
capita
Total
capita
Total
capita
Total
capita
Total
capita
Total
capita
Total
capita
ALL
49,755
5,498
390
43
19,918
894
504
23
6,044
1,266
222
47
2,578
589
274)
63
14,020
1,564
405
45
2,315
534
311
1
72 ;'
4,353
638
498
Agriculture
73
1,074
1,002
9
8
473
548
12
14
139
70
5
2
154
31
16
3
157
231
5
7
74
32
10'
4
74
83
9
Electric Light
10
Manufacturing
11,727
92
5,534
140
1,039
38
239
25
4,024
116
216
29
632
72
Construction
1,028
8
410
10
130
5
40
4
273
8
45
6
117
13
Transportation
4,253
33
1,667
42
539
20
253
27
1,120
32
256
34
391
45
Communications. . .
748
6
347
9
55
2
34
4
207
6
34
5
63
7
7,314
1,321
5,913
6,745
57
10
46
53
2,882
722
2,271
2,871
73
18
57
73
796
112
812
748
29
4
30
28
380
41
306
336
40
4
33
36
2,083
300
1,552
1,657
60
8
45
48
348
40
270
319
47
5
36
43
757
102
624
579
87
12
71
66
3,134
25
1,300
33
336
12
176
19
854
25
150
20
292
33
Note: Data for United States include District of Columbia. Since total incomes by separate industries are given here in round
numbers of millions, while totals for all industries by regions (top line) were computed from more complete data, there is a
slight difference (generally, one or two units) between our totals and those obtained by straight addition of values as given
here for each industry. Electric Light Industry includes manufacturing of electric power and gas industry; mining includes
quarrying.
Source: John A. Slaughter, Income Received in the Various States, 1929-1935 (New York: National Industrial Conference Board,
1937), Table 23. . Statistical Abstract of the United Stales, 1937, Table 11.
Mining as a source of income shows great regional variations (Figure
161). It contributed less than i percent of the income of 21 States but as
high as 10 percent or more in Nevada and New Mexico, and in West Vir-
ginia, 19.4 percent. The Southwest and the Northeast received the high-
est per capita incomes from mining ; the Southeast and the Middle States,
the lowest. Figure 162 which shows the value of mineral output per worker
engaged in mining in 1929 furnishes the basic figure from which mining
wages are paid. It ranged all the way from less than $1,700 in Alabama
to over $11,000 in Minnesota, with its Mesabi iron range. This figure is a
composite index which includes among other things the value of different
minerals, the richness of ores, their availability as resources, the amount
of machinery used per worker, as well as the degree of economic organi-
zation.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
Figure 160. Income Received from Agriculture as Percentage of
Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
259
— « £
ie_ , — a— -
US !St . '°? «
■'■■"ft"
fr
-HI H
_ . ,
p: ^J3» r
1 PA. ^ T N j
X/jr [ | UNDER 10.0 I
!C£ P^T 10-0-14.9
A^k l^<l 1 5.0 - 1 9.9
^2k POO 20.0 - 24.9
K/XA MM 25.0 AND OVER
* — - «''■-'
Wffiyfa
V555,$v5v!5!lf2S?s&
WISyOM J Jy~i 1
xy/y/yw.
wBiWi
' W7a
VX CALIF. '//
yyffiww///Jy'
m
|||L
ILL.
Wmk
^9m
PERCENTAGE INCOME FROM v555565
| FARMS ^***6j
0 5 10 15 20 25
FVSvviJvjSvss^
mm.
^XXXXXXXXXXJ^^^XXXXXX
-|
• M b MIMUH
^i&xxir^
f w riiwri'TimtiTr
-BS— ~ — ■ — - -■■',&'■■ . #■
a
Source: See Table 76 and Figure 159.
Figure 161. Income Received from Mining and Quarrying as Percentage
of Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
1 WW
i PERCENTAGE INCOME FROM^SSS
MINING ANDOUARRYING ^^KSSfi?
0 12 3 4 5 6
^^
■JL —=
Hi
\ >.c. /^
o«. \jr | | UNDER 0.5
/ rTZl Q.5-0.9
y^%o\ BBS 2°-"
P%^[ S3 5.0 AND OVER
£r!^WfiwK2f////N" D*
VyILI- y^f
wOO<*#vv&
yvf* f ° ^^0Skx5oouqvuvsX5vPmm
NEBR. V/y
g
OQOOCOloJXX
V> " *"1 'VVVV&
%%%%%
[ HISS. [
B
JxSTExftsxXoOOv
I u. s. 1 '■ -1
M. s. HOB
F. w. ■BBS
s E BBH
n E BBB
"*BB9B
a
-75—
r
Source: See Table 76.
26o ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 162. Value of Mineral Products per Worker Engaged in
Mining Industries, United States, 1929
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Table 790.
Figure 163. Income Received from Manufacturing as Percentage
of Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
Source: See Table 76.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
261
The Nation drew 23.6 percent of its income from manufacturing, rang-
ing from 28.7 percent in the Middle States to 9.3 percent in the Southwest
and the Northwest. The States ranged from 40.3 percent so derived in
Rhode Island to 2.2 percent in New Mexico. In the Southeastern States,
proportions ranged from 26.5 percent in North Carolina to 9.8 percent in
Mississippi (Figure 163). As Figure 164 indicates, trade and finance were
the source of 17.4 percent of the United States' income, ranging from more
than 20 percent in Missouri and New York to 10.9 percent in Wyoming.
In the Southeast it ranged from over 18 percent in Florida and Tennessee
to 1 2. 1 percent for North Carolina.
The proportion of income received from governmental occupations in
the Nation (Figure 165) amounted to 13.6 percent and ranged from 17.7
percent in North Dakota to 8.9 percent in Indiana. In the Southeast it
varied from 14.5 percent in Virginia to 9.5 percent in North Carolina. The
services (Figure 166) contributed 11.9 percent of the Nation's income with
a range from 15.2 percent for Georgia to 7.3 percent in Wyoming. North
Carolina with 11.6 percent was lowest in the region. Transportation (Fig-
ure 167) which contributed 8.5 percent of the Nation's income contributes
most in the sparsely populated States, leading in Nevada with 15.9 per-
cent. In the Southeast it ranged from 12.2 percent in Louisiana to 5 per-
cent for North Carolina, lowest in the Nation in this respect.
Figure 164. Income Received from Trade and Finance as Percentage
of Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
Source: See Table 76.
'262
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 165. Income Received from Government as Percentage of
Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
Source: See Table 76.
Figure 166. Income Received from the Service Industries as Percentage
of Total Productive Income, United States, 1940
Source: See Table 76.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
263
Figure 167. Income Received from Transportation as Percentage of
Total Productive Income, United States, 1935
PERCENTAGE INCOME FROM
TRANSPORTATION
M. 5
N.
i s.
F. W
s. w.
N.W.
UNDER 7 0
WA 70- 89
'{/j/\ 9 0-109
ggg 11 0 ANOOVER
Source: See Table 76.
Not only does the Southeast secure smaller proportions of its total in-
come from the better paying sources, but its per capita income in each case
is below the Nation's. In 1935 the Nation drew an income of $219 per
capita from distributive and social occupations compared with $119 for the
Southeast. In manufacturing and mechanical occupations the national per
capita was $116 to $48 for the Southeast; only in the extractive economy
was the region's per capita equal to the Nation's at $55 (Figure 159). With
this figure can be compared Figure 168 giving the regional distribution
of income by type: (1) wages, (2) entrepreneurs' incomes, and (3) invest-
ments. Some 69 percent of the Nation's productive income in 1935 was
drawn in the form of salaries and wages, 18.6 percent in entrepreneurs' in-
come and 12.6 percent was drawn as dividends, rent, and interest. The
farmer's income is classified as entrepreneurs' income, a fact which explains
its predominance as a source of income in the Northwest, Southwest, and
Southeast as contrasted with other regions. The Southeast, with 2 1 percent
of the population and the lowest per capita income, received 11.3 percent
of the Nation's wage income, 19 percent of its entrepreneurs' income, and
only 7 percent of the income from investments. The dominant Northeast,
with 30 percent of the population, received 41 percent of the Nation's wage
and salary income, 26 percent of the entrepreneurs' income, and 56 per-
^
264
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 168. The Percentage Distribution of Productive Income by
Three Types, United States and Six Major Regions, 1935
40 6 0
PERCENT
TOO
Source: See Figure 159.
cent of the interest, rent, and dividends. In contrast with other regions,
more of its income came from investments, salaries, and wages, least from
entrepreneurs' income.
Figure 154 serves to explain this relationship. It shows that while in-
comes of less than $1,000 were received by 42 percent of all the Nation's
families in 1935-36, they accounted for only 16 percent of all income. At
the other end of the scale the 1 percent of our families receiving $10,000
and over accounted for 13.5 percent of the total income in 1935-36. From
the savings of this and similar groups come the investments which consti-
tute a claim on future income in terms of interests, rents, and dividends.
Here is the relation of income distribution to the colonial economy char-
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 265
Figure 169. The Major Industrial Areas of the United States, 1939
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures, 1939.
Figure 170. Principal Industrial Counties According to the Number
of Wage Earners in Manufacturing, United States, 1939
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Census of Manufactures, rpjp.
266 ALL THESE PEOPLE
acteristic of the Southeast. Lacking the large incomes necessary to furnish
capital to develop its own resources, the region sees its income remain low
because its resources are appropriated at low prices by outside investors.
By virtue of this condition the Southeast is favorable to government financ-
ing and stands to benefit when its resources are developed by a public
agency like the TVA rather than by outside holding companies. To the
extent that this procedure raises the productive and purchasing power in
the region, it also bolsters the national economy.
INDUSTRIALIZATION IN THE SOUTHEAST
Industrialization has often been discussed as a means by which nations
have come to support larger populations at higher levels of well-being — a
method of so utilizing resources that man has moved from an economy of
scarcity to one of potential abundance. In this sense, industrialization has
been offered as the solution of the ills that population pressure has visited
on agricultural countries like India and China. This solution has been sug-
gested for the Southeast, but, unlike China and India, the region finds itself
already integrated as part of a highly industrialized economy. This pattern
of industrialization, however, is highly centralized.
Industry in the United States is characterized by extreme concentra-
tion of geographic location. Figure 169 shows that the 33 major indus-
trial areas delimited by the census in 1939 ranged from the New York
City-Newark-Jersey City concentration to Toledo, Ohio. Each area con-
tained 40,000 or more factory workers and one or more important indus-
trial counties. These areas comprised 97 counties with 1.7 percent of the
total land area and 35.4 percent of the total population of the United
States. In 1939 they accounted for 54.7 percent of the total wage earners,
59.1 percent of the total value of products, and 61. 1 percent of the total
wages paid in the country. Seventeen of these areas are in the Northeast,
13 in the Middle States, 3 in the Far West, and none in the Southeast,
Southwest, and Northwest.
Figure 170 shows the principal industrial counties ranging from 5,000
to 100,000 or more factory workers. Of the 273 counties in the country
with 5,000 or more wage earners, 238 were located east of the Mississippi
and 14 on the Pacific Coast. The area of lowest industrial density is the
Great Plains area of the Northwest. This map, together with figure 171,
clearly shows the moderate state of industrialization characteristic of the
Southeast in comparison with the concentration of the Northeast, where an
unbroken chain of industrialized counties extends from Boston to Baltimore.
The Middle States with Chicago and Detroit stand second in relative indus-
trialization. The southeastern cluster of moderate industrial areas extends
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 267
down the Appalachians from Virginia to central Alabama. In succeeding
chapters certain zones of this industrial belt will be selected for special
study.
Manufacturing was insignificant in the Southeast in 1880, employing
only 7 percent of the region's working force. Since 1900, however, indus-
trial development has been comparatively rapid. Between 1900 and 1930
the region's workers in manufacturing and mechanical industries more than
doubled, increasing from 764,860 to 1,895,656.
In the four decades, 1900- 1940, proportionate gains in population were
greater in the Nation than in the Southeast, but the region showed greater
percentage increases in urban population and gainful workers. From 1930
to 1940 all three of the rates of increase were greater in the Southeast.
Figure 172 compares the rate of gain in industrial workers in the Na-
tion and the Southeast from 1 900 to 1 940. Since we have used the two sets
of figures in comparing the Southeast and the Nation, the figure also serves
the purpose of relating the biennial changes in industrial wage earners re-
ported by the Census of Manufactures to the changes in gainful workers
in manufacturing and mechanical industries enumerated by the Decennial
Census, 19001940.4
The total increase in the number of gainful workers in manufacturing'
and mechanical industries during the three decades (1900- 1930) was 99.1
percent for the United States and 147.8 percent for the Southeast, while
the increase during the three decades ( 1 899-1 929) for the wage earners was
somewhat less, 87.5 percent for the United States, and 113.4 percent for
the Southeast. From 1930 to 1940 the rate of change for the Southeast
was a 29.4 percent increase for the gainfully employed and a three percent
gain in the number of wage earners, as compared with the Nation's 1 2 per-
cent increase among the gainfully employed and a 10.8 percent loss in the
number of wage earners. The comparable figures of the biennial census
ran from 1929 to 1939.
1 The two differ considerably in that the classification of gainful workers in the regular census greatly
outnumbers the wage earners of the Census of Manufactures. Although the two categories are not strictly
comparable, the change in their number reflects the same trend in the development of manufacturing indus-
tries, and the fact that data for wage earners are available by short intervals makes it possible to study
fluctuations in the number of workers which are smoothed out by the decennial census. Gainful workers
include both employed and unemployed, while wage earners are those actually at work in factories. More-
over, gainful workers include all workers in manufacturing and mechanical industries, whether working at
home or in small or large establishments. The Census of Manufactures includes only those wage earners
working in establishments reporting products valued at $5,000 or more. Prior to 1921, however, this fig-
ure was $500. Wage earners reported to the Census of Manufactures usually constituted from 62 to 70
percent of the gainful workers enumerated in the regular census. In 1900 the ratio of wage earners to
gainful workers in the Nation was approximately 66.5 percent. In successive decades it has been 62, 71,
and 62 percent. In the Southeast from 1900 to 1930 the range has been 72, 67, and 61 percent. In 1940
the ratio was only 50 for the Nation, 49 for the Southeast.
268
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 171. The Number of Wage Earners Engaged in Manufacturing,
United States by Counties, 1939
DENSITY OF WAGE EARNERS ENGAGED IN MANUFACTURING. BT COUNTIES: 1939
I l«»«
HUD' *>«•
C~*1 «X> TO t ,«♦•
0Q uoo TO «*t»
■H MOO TO MM
Source: United States Census of Manufactures, 1939.
Figure 172. Number of Gainful Workers in Manufacturing and
Mechanical Industries, Decennial Census, and Wage Earners
in Manufacturing, Biennial Census, United States
and Southeast, 1900- 1940
op 00
3J300
UNITED STATES^ ""*"*
^,-
.—-'''""
V
v„/
1,000
500
SOUTHEAST
,y
v
WAGE
UL WORKERS
EARNERS
1900 1910 1980 1930
Source: Sec footnote 4 this chapter for explanation of sources and variations in the two enumerations.
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
269
While the Southeast did not loom large as a site for war industries,
Figure 173 shows in the period June 1940 to November 1941 that the
greatest increase in industrial wage earners came in California, New Eng-
land, and seven Southeastern States. In this period the region secured 15.5
percent of industrial defense contracts allotted as compared with 20.8 per-
cent for New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, and 25.6 percent for
Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan.5
Figure 173. Percentage Change in Employment in Non-Agricultural
Establishments, United States, June, 1940 to November, 1941
Source: United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Before our entry in World War II the high point reached in the num-
ber of wage earners in manufacturing by the Nation and by the major in-
dustrial areas was in 19 19. By 1939 when the Nation's wage earners had
fallen to 86.7 percent of the 19 19 level, the Southeast exceeded its 1919
level by 17 percent. Moreover in the depression years, 1935, 1937, and
1939, the Southeast was the only region which reported more industrial
wage earners than in 191 9.
In this period since 19 19 the region took part in the national trend to-
ward concentration, the number of establishments declining from 41,186 to
22,685. As the number of factories decreased, the output and number of
6 See also Ralph C. Hon, "The South in a War Economy," Southern Economic Journal, VIII (January,
1942), 291-308.
270
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 174. The Trend of Wages per Wage Earner in Manufacturing,
United States, Far West and Southeast, 19 19-1939
1931
1933
0
1919 1921 1923 1928 1927 1929
Source: Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States (Chapel Hill, 1936), p. 434-5 United
States Bureau of the Census, Biennial Census of Manufactures, 1933-1939-
wage earners per factory increased. From 191 9 to 1939 the number of
factories reported in the Southeast declined 44.9 percent as compared with
a decline of 36.5 percent in the Nation. Most of the disappearance of small
factories came at the end of the first World War, but later gains in the num-
ber of establishments were cancelled out in the drastic years from 1929
to 1933. In this same period, from 19 19 to 1939, the Southeast saw the
average number of wage earners per establishment double, increasing from
25.1 to 53.2. In the Nation as a whole average workers increased from
31.4 to 42.8 per establishment. In the same period the average value of
products per factory in the Southeast increased from $131 thousands to
$283 thousands j in the United States it increased from $215 to $308
thousands, giving the region an increase of 1 1 6 percent as compared with
a gain of 43 percent for the Nation. Whether these figures indicate greater
gains for the region depends to some extent on the changed system of re-
porting inaugurated in 1921 (see footnote 4).
INCOME AND INDUSTRY
271
Figure 175. Wages per Wage Earner Engaged in Manufacturing
Industries, United States, 1939
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Biennial Census of Manufactures, 1939.
THE LEVEL OF WAGES
The rise in the level of wages in the Southeast has not kept pace with
the region's increased value of output and number of workers. Great re-
gional differences exist in average wages in manufacturing and industry
throughout the United States. These variations are due to many things:
(1) differences in variety and type of industry, (2) differences in produc-
tivity and skills among workers, (3) differences in the bargaining power of
workers, (4) differences in efficiency and mechanization as among indus-
tries, and (5) as among plants in the same industry in different parts of
the country, as well as (6) differences in the price policies prevailing in
highly competitive industries as compared with those of a semi-monopo-
listic nature, and (7) invested capital per worker.
Whatever the causes, Figure 174 shows that the Southeast remains the
region of the differential wage. In 1939 the region's average wage in man-
ufacturing was $760, less than two-thirds of the Nation's average and only
58 percent of the average wage in the Middle States and Far West. Figure
175 shows that the average industrial wage ranged from $1,512 in Michi-
gan, land of the great automotive industry, to $592 in Mississippi, home of
the plan to balance agriculture with industry. The highest average wage
paid in the Southeast, $986 in Kentucky, ranked only thirty-fourth in the
272
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 176. Wages, Value Added by Manufacturing and Value of
Product per Wage Earner, United States and Six Major Regions, 1939
WA0E3
UNITEO STATES
NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
MIDDLE STATES
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
FAN WEST
VALUE ADDED
UNITEO STATES
NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
MIDOLE STATES
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
FAR WEST
VALUE OF PRODUCT
UNITEO STATES
NORTHEAST
SOUTHEAST
MIOOLE STATES
SOUTHWEST
NORTHWEST
FAR WEST
6 8 10
THOUSANDS OF OOLLARS
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Biennial Census of Manufactures, 1939.
Nation. In the lowest group New Mexico was the only stranger to the
Southeast.
Figure 1 76 enables us to relate wages to regional variations in two im-
portant measures reported by the Census of Manufactures, (1) value of
product per wage earner and (2) the value added by manufacture per wage
earner. In 1939 it is clear that in the Southeast the average wage earner
drew the lowest wage, added least to the value of raw materials per wage
earner by fabricating them, and turned out the cheapest product. Highest
in all these measures came the western regions and the Middle States.
Figure 177 serves to compare trends in the Southeast and the Nation
in these values from 1919 to 1939, showing that differentials have remained
fairly constant. When available, data from 1941-45 maY snow decrease
in major differentials due to the effect of the War (Table 79). Figure 178
depicts the trend in wages 1919-39 as percentages of value added in manu-
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 273
facturing industries. Wages are seen normally to take 40 percent of the
value that manufacturing adds to the costs of raw materials, fuel, power,
etc. On this basis the Southeast, although drawing the lower wage, receives
a higher percentage of value added than the Southwest but fluctuates
slightly below the Nation's average.
Both in total value of products and in total wage bill the Southeast
showed increases from 1919-1939 as compared with the Nation. If we
use the 1919 level as our base year, we find in Table 77 that by 1939 the
total value of production reached an index of 1 1 8.8 in the Southeast as
compared with 91 in the United States. Similarly total wages paid after
fluctuations reached 100 in the Southeast as compared with 86.3 in the
Nation (Table 78). An examination of the trends shows that the South-
east reacted more severely to the aftermath of World War I in 1919-1921,
but that the Nation lost more in the depression both in production and
wages. War has again changed the picture and later Censuses of Manufac-
tures will no doubt show a greater proportion of war industries located out-
side the Southeast.
Table 79, designed to analyze these figures in further detail, serves to
exhibit the Southeast's familiar two-thirds differential in industry by ar-
ranging three regional-national ratios per wage earner: (1) value of
product, (2) value added, and (3) wages in parallel columns. Over a
period of twenty years the average wage earner in the Southeast has turned
out a product valued at two-thirds to three-fourths the national average,
has added somewhat less to the value of the materials added by manufactur-
ing them, and has received less still in average wages. Table 79 shows that
the Southeast approached nearest national averages in the period of World
War I when all three ratios exceeded 75 percent. Its ratio of wages fell
lowest not in the depression but in the War's aftermath of the 1920's. As
war industries invade the Southeast they will again raise the average wage
level, a gain that will be preserved only if skills are increased, technology
developed, capital invested, and the range of industry diversified.
THE INDUSTRIAL AND OCCUPATIONAL PATTERN
In the most careful analysis of the region's industry made to date, Har-
riet L. Herring shows the limitation of the Southeast in the type and va-
riety of its industry. For a time it appeared that the Southeast was to de-
velop a one-crop industry based on its agricultural specialty, cotton. Table
80, compiled from Herring's Southern Industry cmd Regional Develop-
ment,6 shows the share of the Southeast in 55 important industries. In
the main the area leads in low-wage industries, turning out a product of
low average value. This phenomenon is related to the South's surplus
Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1940.
274
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 177. Wages, Value Added by Manufacture, and Value of Pro-
duct per Wage Earner, United States and Southeast, 1919-1939
Source: Howard W. Odum, op. cit., pp. 434, 436. United States Bureau of the Census, Biennial Census
of Manufactures, 1931, 1933, '935, '937> an<* '939-
Figure 178. Wages as Percentage of Value Added in Manufacturing
Southeast and Southwest, 1 919-1939
1919 1921 1923
Source: See Table 77.
1925 1927 1929 1931
1933 I93S 1937 1939
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 275
Table 77. Index of Change in Total Value of Production in
Manufacturing, United States and Southeast, 19 19-1939
(1919 = 100. 0)
United States
Southeast
Year
United States
Southeast
Year
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
1919
262,418
43 ,653
60,556
62,714
62,718
70,435
100.0
69.9
97.0
100.5
100.5
112.8
25,395
3,575
5,153
5,643
5,643
6,309
100.0
66.3
95.5
104.6
104.6
116.9
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
41,350
31,359
45,760
60,713
56,829
66.2
50.2
73.3
97.3
91.0
4,115
3,521
4,866
6,351
6,409
76.3
1921
65.3
1923
90.2
1925
117.7
1927
118.8
1929
....
1 W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States, pp. 435-436; Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Manu-
II, pp. 16-17; Biennial Census of Manufactures, 1931, pp. 21-22; 1933, p. 20; 1935, pp. 20-21; 1937, part I, pp.
Source; Howard
factures, 1929, II, pp,
20-21; 1939, preliminary summary, press release of January 9, 1941
Table 78. Index of Change in Total Amount of Wages, United
States and Southeast, 191 9-1 939
(1919 = 100.0)
United States
Southeast
Year
United States
Southeast
Year
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
Thousands
of dollars
Index
1919
$10,533
8,202
11,010
10,730
10,849
11,621
100.0
77.9
104.5
101.9
103.0
110.3
?918
673
873
912
954
989
100.0
73.3
95.0
99.3
103.9
107.7
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
S 7,186
5,262
7,545
10,113
9,090
68.2
50.0
71.6
96.0
86.3
?645
547
735
924
918
70.3
1921
59.6
1923
80.0
1925
100.6
1927
100.0
1929. . .
Source: See Table 77.
Table 79. Ratio of Average Values in Southeast to National Average
in Three Indices of Manufacturing, 191 9- 1939
Average value
Average value
Average value
added by manu-
Average value
added by manu-
Year
of product per
facture per
Average wage
Year
of product per
facture per
Average wage
wage earner
wage earner
wage earner
wage earner
1919
0.762
0.782
0.769
1931
0.735
0.695
0.662
1921
0.685
0.664
0.687
1933
0.738
0.668
0.684
1923
0.697
0.685
0.650
1935
0.734
0.652
0.672
1925
0.692
0.691
0.654
1937
0.737
0.676
0.643
1927
0.667
0.677
0.653
1939
0.737
0.688
0.660
1929
0.675
0.693
0.642
Source: See Table 77.
of human resources. Because of a labor supply greater than any demand
of southern agriculture, industry finds cheap wage rates. It is, however,
the highly competitive industries and those of low productivity that are
forced to seek areas of low wage costs. Such industries have not greatly
increased the skills of the population and are not likely to raise the general
wage level until they find greater competition for the labor supply. The
Southeast thus not only needs to increase its industrialization} it needs to
broaden and diversify the pattern.
276 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 80. The Share of the Southeast in Fifty-Five Industries
Percent in Southeast of National total
Industry
Wage
earners
Wages
Value of
product
Value
added by
manufacture
Salaried
personB
Salaries
100.0
100.0
94.7
78.5
74.0
68.0
67.0
62.3
44.5
44.2
39.6
36.0
35.3
34.1
33.3
30.4
28.2
27.4
26.4
26.0
22.7
22.5
19.3
18.9
18.4
14.6
14.5
13.7
13.5
12.8
12.5
11.3
9.7
9.7
9.6
9.2
8.9
8.6
8.4
8.0
6.2
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.5
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.3
0.5
100.0
100.0
94.4
72.6
70.9
67.9
52.0
45.7
27.9
34.8
26.3
33.8
28.6
28.0
30.1
27.1
19.5
23.0
19.9
15.3
17.0
16.9
16.5
13.3
13.5
11.0
9.7
9.9
9.9
10.0
8.1
6.0
6.7
7.7
7.7
7.2
7.3
5.5
6.4
7.5
5.1
4.9
4.6
3.9
4.2
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.3
3.5
2.9
2.9
2.6
0.4
100.0
100.0
95.5
74.4
74.1
68.7
55.8
57.2
33.1
39.3
25.4
34.6
31.8
36.0
30.0
32.2
23.2
24.2
22.8
13.0
18.0
16.4
14.1
14.9
13.6
12.0
9.0
10.2
9.7
9.5
8.7
5.7
5.4
9.7
8.1
8.2
6.4
6.0
7.7
6.9
4.9
4.2
3.9
3.8
5.5
4.8
3.8
4.0
4.0
4.1
3.8
3.3
3.7
2.5
0.6
100.0
100.0
96.5
71.1
72.0
61.3
47.4
52.7
32.2
36.6
26.6
33.1
27.0
32.0
28.8
31.7
20.7
22.0
22.4
14.4
16.6
17.5
12.8
14.1
14.0
11.8
9.6
8.5
9.4
9.1
9.2
5.6
5.2
10.3
8.1
8.0
6.8
5.7
7.6
7.7
4.7
5.2
4.0
4.4
4.9
4.5
4.9
4.1
3.9
3.6
4.0
3.1
3.5
2.8
0.4
100.0
100.0
92.4
55.0
64.1
59.7
64.3
60.5
40.9
33.1
23.6
24.3
24.0
35.6
20.7
27.5
20.9
20.7
30.0
16.9
14.0
17.5
8.7
15.1
16.8
12.3
12.7
11.0
12.4
15.5
13.3
7.6
4.1
7.3
10.1
9.9
8.9
6.8
10.2
8.9
5.4
10.4
5.9
5.0
5.5
7.2
5.4
5.1
4.6
3.7
4.8
3.3
5.9
3.0
0.4
100.0
100.0
92.2
54.8
64.9
60.7
58.8
55.4
38.5
34.3
24.3
22.4
22.4
35.7
21.7
31. S
19.1
20.5
25.4
12.3
14.7
16.0
10.3
16.4
13.4
14.4
Flour, other grain mill products
11.5
10.6
11.9
14.9
12.8
5.8
Heating and cooking apparatus (not electric) .
4.4
6.5
9.9
8.9
7.2
6.7
9.3
8.7
4.7
7.5
Malt liquors
4.9
4.8
4.7
6.2
5.6
5.7
4.3
3.6
Liquors, rectified and blended
4.6
3.0
4.9
2.6
0.4
Source: Harriet L. Herring, Southern Industry and Regional Development ( Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.
1940), p. 72.
In a country characterized by free enterprise, great natural resources,
and one of the highest rates of mobility of capital and labor yet known, it
might be assumed that regional pockets of poverty, wherever developed,
would be cleared out within a generation by migration of workers to points
INCOME AND INDUSTRY 277
of opportunity or by the migration of industrial capital to areas of low cost
resources and low wage levels.
The effect of the above recital of income differentials is to cast doubt
on the assumption that such progressive equalization is in process. South-
ern incomes have risen along with national averages but the Southeast's
level of well-being is not rising at the higher rate necessary to equalize con-
ditions within any attainable future. Many millions of southern youth
have migrated to seek their chances in the cities and to add to our indus-
trial congestion. Differential fertility continues to replace them faster than
southern agriculture and industry absorb them at present levels of develop-
ment. For the Southeast to solve its problem by migration to the extent
suggested by the Report of the Study of Population Redistribution would
add to the congestion of more populated areas.7 To migration must be ad-
ded the development of a more complex economy than that now afforded
by the Southeast.
It is not that the less complex economies are concerned simply with the
employment and wage payments afforded by manufacturing. The propor-
tions employed in manufacturing in a complex economy are not especially
large nor are industrial wages always the highest. It is the complexity and
diversity of a rich economy that the more backward States desire, and the
development of manufacturing appears the first logical step to the develop-
ment of such an economy. No one has determined the precise ratio of
auxiliary services needed by manufacturing, but they include many in the
higher level of professional and technical services as well as in clerical, trade,
transportation, and others in the distributive groups. Compared with the
range of specialized occupations and skills found in New York, the occu-
pational structure of a State like Mississippi borders on the primitive. This
condition has been offered to explain why a proportionately larger number
of the South's able men are found serving in the higher rank of America's
armed forces during peacetime. The occupational hierarchy at home does
not offer sufficient richness and complexity, and not all can hope through
migration and competition to climb to positions of trust and competence
abroad.
The South's demand for a larger share in the industrialization of this
•country has been put on the defensive, as something contaminated with the
evil companionship of Chambers of Commerce, municipal subsidies, and
low wages. Actually it is no more sectional nor subversive in the competi-
tive American pattern for an undeveloped area to try to secure more indus-
try than for a highly concentrated area to try to increase its large supply.
It has become orthodox to regard the South's industrial development as an
7 Carter Goodrich and Others, Migration and Economic Opportunity, pp. 144-157, 495, Jl8.
278 ALL THESE PEOPLE
attack on union organization and to feel that the region's problems can
best be served by population redistribution, continuous migration, and
continuous social mobility. While recent Federal legislation has offered a
partial answer to this view, the persistence of great inequalities is still the
strongest argument for further industrialization.
In regard to migration, the truth of the matter is that the South is not
competent under its present economy and culture to continue to rear and
educate and send out the Nation's population reserves. Not only is the
region too poor, but such a process means a constant drain on its resources.
Whatever may be the net worth of the region's human exports, it is safe
to estimate that to rear and educate a child to adulthood costs family, com-
munity, and State some $2,000 to $5,000. Further development of the
South's economy by increasing the variety and range of occupational oppor-
tunities will raise the level of living and of training, will reduce the differ-
ential birth rate, and will keep more of the South's human and material
„ capital at home to participate in its own development.
Low wages and a one-crop system of industry are characteristic of the
, opening phases of industrialization. This condition should be accepted only
, as a transitional phase to whose passing both the region and the Nation are
committed. When the region has increased its purchasing power through
increasing its productive powers, the Nation too will benefit by its passing.
CHAPTER I 8
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS
One of the weak points in our understanding of modern society is to be
found in our inadequate knowledge of the process of industrialization. The
growth of manufacturing in areas formerly given over to agriculture indi-
cates that the processes involved in the changing location of industry have
both their positive and their negative aspects.
THE AREA
The Southeastern Piedmont offers a favorable area in which we may
trace the effects of manufacturing developments that have occurred in
textiles, tobacco, power, furniture, hosiery, rayon, and allied fields within
the last generation. Stretching from Lynchburg, Virginia, to Birmingham,
Alabama, the Piedmont Industrial area curves around the Southern Appa-
lachians which set its upper boundary, for a distance of some 730 miles.
Its southeastern boundary is set by the fall line where the rivers break on
their last rapids and level out for a slow and steady flow to the Atlantic and
the Gulf.1 In order to limit the scope of the study, it has been focused on
the consideration of the first hydroelectric power zone to emerge in the
region, the Catawba Valley power province. This delimitation of the area
was also dictated by the fact that water power was one of the main inte-
grating forces in the region's industrial development. In this respect the
Catawba Valley can be regarded as a forerunner of the later development
visualized in the Tennessee Valley.
In all its ramifications hydroelectric power as a resource has helped to
lay down the territorial organization and to integrate industrial develop-
ment in the Piedmont. It has allowed the use of power at practically any
point where the convergence of labor, raw materials, and markets made the
construction of a factory advantageous.
1 See Rupert B. Vance, Human Geography of the South (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina
Press, 1932), pp. 275-315.
[279]
280 ALL THESE PEOPLE
As early as 1921 this point of view was stated by C. G. Gilbert and
J. E. Pogue.2
Coming into action late the industrialism of the South, un-
hampered by tradition and unencumbered by obsolescent power
establishments, took over the practices best suited to its needs.
Thus while the Northeastern states form an illustration of cen-
tralized industry . . . the South displays a regional development
of industry nowhere intensely focused but spread, on the contrary
in diluted form over a large area. The contrast is suggestive} for
permanance, for national well-being, for the common good, it
would appear that a balanced economic life in which each section
manufactures, in a large measure, its own products, is preferable
to a highly intensified manufacturing area setting up its own
interests in opposition to the more extensive producing areas. The
South presents an example of a power supply dispersed to create
a normal development from within, with minimum detraction
from the opportunities peculiar to other sections.
It is the purpose of this chapter to study the growth of industry in a
specific regional area that a generation ago was overwhelmingly rural. In
carrying forward this analysis we shall observe the area as it delimits itself
in terms of natural resources, of developing technology and of emerging
economic forces.
For such an area we chose a river basin as it developed into a power
producing and a power distributing province. There is first the Valley
Proper, the drainage basin of the Catawba River. Since it contains most
of the installations, it can be regarded as the area of power production.
Part of the drainage basin is in the Appalachian Highlands and thus the
Valley Proper can be divided into the Upper and Lower Valley. In ad-
dition there is the surrounding area, 15 industrial counties, over which the
power is largely distributed (Figure 179). This larger area will serve
as the frame of reference which can be narrowed from time to time to
focus on smaller areas for more intensive study. For a field study of a
moderate-sized industrial city in relation to its hinterland and surrounding
towns, High Point, North Carolina was selected.
Within this framework it should prove possible to show the changing
location of industry from the point of view of the factors involved in the
various community areas affected, the sequence in which industries ap-
peared, and the changes involved in agriculture, population, and the eco-
nomic and social conditions of the area. This section, in short, is a case
study in the effects of industrialization upon a rural area.
a C. G. Gilbert and J. E. Pogue, America's Power Resources (New York: Century, 1921), pp. 136-137.
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 281
Figure 179. The Catawba Valley, North Carolina and South Carolina
,j. j NOHTI^_ CAROLINA _
. . . ■ -T- jipomJii
LOWER VALLEY
INDUSTRIAL COUNTIES USING
CATAWBA VALLEY POWER
Source: Study of the Catawba Valley (Unpublished manuscript, Institute for Research in Social Science,
University of North Carolina, 1938).
FACTORS IN THE RISE OF INDUSTRY3
In the course of its development the Catawba Valley area has repeated
much of the history of industrialization elsewhere. The same factors of
resources, transportation, labor supply, low wages, community promotion,
and lenient tax policies have prevailed at various times and places. Some
special considerations bearing on the area's development, however, may be
noted.
WATER POWER
From the Potomac River to the Savannah the topographical belts and
the soil regions stretch from northeast to southwest, the slope being to the
southeast. The rivers draining the Atlantic Coastal area thus cut across the
8 This area has been studied by the author for the Industrial Location Section of the National Resources
Planning Board to whom the writer is indebted for aid and advice. Much of Chapters 18 and 20 is based
on T. J. Woofter, Jr., Harriet L. Herring, Rupert B. Vance, and J. Herman Johnson, The Survey of the
Catawba Valley, 1935, an unpublished study made by the Institute for Research in Social Science, University
of North Carolina, for the Research and Planning Section of the Tennessee Valley Authority. Acknowledg-
ments are made to the Authority, the Institute, and the Planning Board for permission to make use of
these unpublished reports.
282
ALL THESE PEOPLE
grain, flowing eastward and southward across the soil and topographical
belts. While many streams drain into the Atlantic from this territory, only
a few of them extend all the way back to the high plateaus of the Blue
Ridge Mountains. These few possess sufficient fall and volume to be of
more than local significance in the generation of hydroelectric power. "The
Southern Appalachian region," wrote Thorndike Saville in 1931, "js more
favored than any other parTToF the United States in having a topograpKy
r^Haple^~l^rTrIe~To7istructioh~^f'"Tlams and a relatively high— ratnfaUy-well
distrlbirrectTrrroughouTThe year."4 The principal full-length systems are
the Dan-Roanoke, the Yadkin-Pee-Dee, the Catawba- Wateree, Santee, the
Savannah, and the Chattahoochee-Appalachicola (Figure 180). In gen-
eral the power development of each of these major rivers was undertaken
by a single operating company.
The maximum capacity in the area is found on the Catawba River,
known as the Wateree in South Carolina. With its source on the flanks
of Mt. Mitchell, highest peak in the East (6,711 feet), this river drops to
the fall line in less than 200 miles. Next to the Tennessee Valley, North
Figure 180. The Place of the Catawba Valley in the River Basin
System of the Southeast
Source: Adapted from a map prepared by the United States Geological Survey.
* "The Power Situation in the Southern Power Province," The Annals of the American Academy of
Political and Social Science, 153 (January, 1 931), 99.
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 2i
Figure 181. Hydro-Electric Development in the Catawba Valley
Power Province, North and South Carolina, 1940
283
Power
north carolina
power plants
AND
TRANSMISSION LINES
ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION LINES
AND GENERATING STATIONS
IN THE
STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA
/, E-cs £-n o
/O/V LIHE-J
\
Source: Maps prepared by the State Public Utilities Commissions of North and South Carolina, 1940.
284 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Carolina ranks the highest in the Southeast in both actual and potential
water power.
From the engineer's viewpoint the entire river system has been devel-
oped as a unit. Except for the fact that higher dams and greater reservoirs
may be built in the future, its development may be regarded as complete.
The system is reinforced both by a tie-up with the giant power systems of
the Southeast and by steam plants, suitably placed to take care of power
needs in seasons of water shortage or exceptional demand (Figure 181).
The electrification of the Valley got under way with the organization
of the Southern Power Company in 1904. Later the Duke Power Company
absorbed the Southern Power Company, and by 1927 had become a
$165,000,000 corporation. Backed by ample resources the Company
adopted the policy of building ahead of the potential industrial market.
By 1930 over half the combined generating capacity of plants in the two
Carolinas was located on the Catawba- Wateree ; and the Duke Power Com-
pany was producing over 1 5 percent of all power generated in the Southern
Power Province. By 1934 it reported 660,005 horsepower developed from
17 hydro stations, 380,965 horsepower developed from 7 steam stations,
and 131,000 horsepower leased, a total of 1,177,970 horsepower.5
The extent to which this movement affected development in the Val-
ley may be indicated by the electrification of the establishments in eight
core counties of the Valley as compared with the State. In 1900 the Valley
had no plants operated by electricity as compared with 3 percent in the
State j in 1905 the State still led with 7.3 percent of its plants electrified
as compared with 5.1 percent for the Valley. By 19 10, however, the Valley
led with 43 percent of its establishments electrified as compared with only
26 percent in the State.6 This lead, once achieved, has been maintained.
TRANSPORTATION
In connecting the South with the East, the main transportation lines
have cut across the river valleys to run parallel with the Appalachian
ranges. From the coast to the fall line they are the Atlantic Coast Line,
the Seaboard Railway, and the Southern Railway. The Southern Railway
dominates the territory above the fall line and its facilities coincide most
closely with the developing power province. Much of the new industrial
development is strung along its double-tracked line from Washington to
Atlanta. In addition its extension westward from Salisbury to Knoxville
and Chattanooga and northward to Cincinnati taps the resources of the
5 Moody, Public Utilities (New York, 1934), p- 161.
8 Harriet L. Herring in A Survey of the Catawba Valley, I (unpublished manuscript, Institute for
Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, 1935), p- 87. From Reports of the North Caro-
lina Commissioner of Labor and Printing, Raleigh, N. C
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 285
mountain area through the Asheville Basin. In 1921 North and South
Carolina inaugurated their intensive program of highway construction,
much of which was concentrated in the Piedmont area.
The importance of this factor is indicated by recent estimates which
assign 13 percent of the total costs of producing and distributing commodi-
ties to costs of transportation. The costs of transporting commodities are
estimated at almost one third of the costs of physically producing them.7
Transportation costs have favored textiles more than furniture. During
1936 according to the Interstate Commerce Commission,8 freight costs
amounted to only 1.8 percent of the value of cotton cloth and cotton fab-
rics at destination. As a result no elaborate system of zone pricing or freight
equalization prevails in the textile market. Cotton yarn, gray goods, fin-
ished cloth in general, and even the great bulk of finished apparel are
sold on the basis of a simple f.o.b. system. The necessity of absorbing the
cost of freight in his gross margin of profit has imposed no particular bur-
den on the retailer, simply because freight ratios are so low. Moreover,
transportation costs have been further reduced by the increasing use of
truck delivery. It is common practice, for example, for manufacturers to
allow free delivery by truck anywhere within the metropolitan area in
which textiles and apparel are manufactured.
On the other hand, the ratio of freight costs to the value of household
furniture at destination is relatively high, being 10.6 percent in 1936. In
spite of this cost, household furniture is sold almost altogether on f.o.b.
factory basis with virtually no freight allowance. Prices for furniture, how-
ever, are usually "crated" prices. Manufacturers often absorb costs of
transportation by truck up to 50 or 100 miles if they are allowed to deliver
furniture "uncrated."
THE LABOR FORCE
The labor force has played a most important part in the rise of indus-
try in the Piedmont. More emphasis than necessary has been placed on its
Anglo-Saxon inheritance} less emphasis than deserved has been given to
the industrial heritage of the common man of the Piedmont and its valleys.
As a matter of history the population of this area has been in the process of
adjustment to industrialization for a period of some 150 years. The set-
tlers in the back country of the Carolinas, most of whom came down the
Shenandoah Valley from Pennsylvania, had little in common with the
agrarian aristocracy of the lowlands. Living on the frontier they became
jacks of all trades and tried their hands at all means of wresting a living
''Does Distribution Cost Too Much? (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, 1 939), p. 118.
Price Behavior and Business Policy. Temporary National Economic Committee, Monograph 1 (Wash-
ington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1940), p. 300.
286 ALL THESE PEOPLE
from nature. Not only did the inhabitants of this area remain largely out-
side the early cotton economy, but they carried along with their general
farming a healthy tradition of industry.
This heritage can hardly be understood apart from the history of this
upland area. The seeds of industrial activity in this general area were first
planted in the early frontier period. Domestic manufactures accompanied
the spread of settlement in the back counties of Virginia, North and South
Carolina. Travellers in the area remarked on the universality of home-
made cloth j and Hamilton in his Refort of Manufactures in 1 799 esti-
mated that in some districts of the South from two-thirds to four-fifths of
all clothing was made at home. Pioneer skills flourished in a wide range
of household and farm handicrafts.
The beginnings of local specializations and divisions of labor were
found, writes Harriet L. Herring, in the presence of men and women who
wove cloth for their neighbors, wool carders and fullers who took over the
processes most inconvenient to perform without special equipment, millers,
distillers, hatters, shoemakers, harness makers, saddlers, cabinet makers,
and blacksmiths.
From 1790 to the close of the Napoleonic wars, it appeared as though
the South might embark upon a manufacturing career. Already the house-
hold industries as in New England had received the complement of smug-
gled and imported machinery in wool carding, fulling, and cotton spin-
ning mills. Power spinning was carried on in South Carolina as early as
1789 at Charleston, in 1798 in the Williamsburg district, and by 1790 at
Statesburg. In 18 16 Michael Bean made a set of cording, "roping," and
spinning machinery for Michael Schencks' famous first cotton factory in
North Carolina. There is evidence that there were workmen in*the vicinity
of Lincolnton two decades previous who knew how to make and operate
water-driven cotton processing machinery. Immigrants from Rhode Is-
land textile centers settled in the Piedmont about 18 15 and built cotton
mills on little streams in nearby South Carolina at Fingerville, Batesville,
and Bivingsville.9
Obviously important in this development was the presence of a large
working force, able and willing to enter new industries. Undoubtedly most
of the early workers in the industry came from nearby farms. In a study
of 500 textile workers families in Gaston County in 1925-26, Rhyne found
that over three-fifths (62.6 percent) of the parents of male family heads
had been farmers, and less than one-fifth (18.1 percent) had been mill
operatives. Of the present heads, fully half (51.2 percent) had farmed
6 Harriet L. Herring, History of the Southern Textile Industry (unpublished manuscript, Chapel Hill-
Institute for Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina), chaps. II, III, IV. Summarized
in The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 1^3 (January, 193 1 ), 5.
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 287
before going into industry. The vast majority of persons (91 percent)
were born in North Carolina or South Carolina. Only 13 persons, 0.7 per-
cent, were born outside the Southeast.10
In a comparable analysis of the neighboring Leaksville-Spray-Draper
development in 1937, Harriet Herring found that 23 percent of the work-
ers were born in the towns, 1 8 percent in the county, and 3 8 percent in
contiguous counties. Less than five percent were born outside the States of
North Carolina and Virginia.11
While less than a fifth (18.1 percent) of the chief breadwinners were
born in textile centers, Rhyne found that almost a third (30.9 percent) of
the unmarried workers and over three-fifths (63 percent) of the children,
6-14 years of age, were born in cotton mill towns. For this group the per-
centage of those occupied permanently in the textile industry had increased
from 1 8 to 70 percent within three generations. On the basis of the rate of
increase he spoke of cotton mill workers as a possible hereditary occupa-
tional group and predicted that the industry would soon become inde-
pendent of the agricultural reserve as a source of labor supply. Since then,
however, southern agriculture has encountered a long period of depression
while the industrialization of the area has continued partly as a result of
the presence of this labor supply.
In the textile industry women serve as a complementary labor force
making up some two-fifths of those employed. In the textile industry of
the world women make up 52 percent of the workers; in the United States
they constitute 41.6 percent; in the Leaksville-Spray-Draper area, 38.9
percent.12
WAGE AND HOUR STRUCTURE
Although wages are low in the area, labor costs take comparatively high
rank among the costs of production in those industries in which the South-
east has shown a large development. Some indication of the regional wage
structure in textiles is given below on page 290. Wages in furniture offer
another example of lower costs in the South. Available data on wages and
hours in the furniture industry, however, do not show the changes brought
about by the wage and hour law, effective in 1938. While it appears that
the extreme differential between northern and southern wages was reduced
by the Fair Labor Standards Act, it is possible that little increase in the
average wages of skilled and semi-skilled labor occurred before the rise in
connection with war industries. It has been necessary to use data for the
10 J. J. Rhyne, Some Cotton Mill Workers and Their Villages (Chapel Hill: University of North Caro-
lina Press, 1930), chap. VIII.
11 Harriet L. Herring, "The Outside Employer in the Southern Industrial Pattern," Social forces, XVIII
(October, 1939), 115-126.
12 Ibid.
288
ALL THESE PEOPLE
South since detailed statistics were not available for the North Carolina
area. North Carolina wages on the whole are somewhat higher than the
southern average and wages in High Point may be somewhat higher than
the average for all furniture in North Carolina.13
The region's chief furniture product is wooden household furniture,
including case goods (dining room and bedroom suites), upholstery, nov-
elty, and kitchen furniture. The average hourly wage in the wooden house-
hold furniture industry in the United States in 1937 was 48 cents ; in the
North, 53 centsj in the South, 35 cents ; and in North Carolina, 36 cents.
Earnings in the High Point-Thomasville furniture area for this type of
furniture were somewhat higher than the State average, being approxi-
mately 39 cents an hour.
Table 81. Average Hourly Earnings in the Furniture Industry, United
States and Regions, 1937
Case Goods
Upholstery
Group
United States
North
South
United States
North
South
Skilled
SI. 8
42.2
33.9
44.1
57.8
49.4
40.2
51.3
41.9
33.0
28.0
34.7
68.1
50.5
33.9
56.5
74.2
55.6
40.2
62.7
47.8
37.1
Unskilled
28.0
37.8
Novelty Furniture
Kitchen Furniture
United States
North
South
United States
North
South
Skilled
55. 0
49.1
39.2
48.9
56.4
50.5
40.5
50.3
39.2
32.6
27.2
33.4
48.8
42.7
35.1
43.1
50.2
44.2
36.6
44.7
41.3
36.5
Unskilled
30.0
36.1
Source: Wage and Hour St
ructure of the Fu
rniture Industry,
U. S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics
, Bulletin 669 (October, 1937).
As indicated in Table 81, the regional differential in wages varied in
some degree according to the type of wooden household furniture produced
and the skills of those working in each type. As Figure 182 indicates, up-
holstery workers are the highest paid, while workers in kitchen furniture
were the lowest paid. Comparison of wages paid skilled, semi-skilled, and
unskilled workers gives significant content to the social-economic classifi-
cation of occupations.
The actual weekly hours worked by all workers in the wooden house-
hold furniture industry in the United States averaged 42.5 in October,
1937. The South's work week averaged from 3 to 5 hours longer in the
various types of product. The southern industry, at present, adheres to
the 40 hour week as established by the wage-hour law. In October, 1937,
southern wages were 73 percent of the national and 66 percent of the north-
ern rates.
18 Wage and Hour Structure of the Furniture Industry, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bulletin 669
(Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, October, 1937)-
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS
289
Figure 182. Average Hourly Earnings in Four Branches of the Furni-
ture Industry for Skilled, Semi-Skilled, and Unskilled
Workers, North and South, 1937
CENTS PER HOUR
75
UPHOLSTERY
CASE GOODS
NOVELTY FURNITURE
KITCHEN FURNITURE fr
Source: See Table 81.
Highly competitive industries, such as cotton textiles, have sought the
plentiful labor supply in the low wage areas of the Southeast. This very
development, however, has been accompanied by a decrease in the initial
wage differential. Table 82 shows that from 1890 to 1920 hourly rates
for female spinners in South Carolina increased from 33 to 77 percent of
Massachusetts rates; for female weavers from 52 to 85 percent. After the
recession of 1920 the southern differential became greater. By 1937 hours
were equalized and the South Carolina wage was 81 percent of that paid
by Massachusetts for spinners and 93 percent for weavers (Figure 183).
An analysis of types shows the predominance in the Southeast of those
industries which have comparatively low value of product and low value
added by manufacturing. Included are furniture, cast iron pipe, shirts, cot-
ton yarns, knitted underwear, work clothing, cotton goods, clay products,
lumber, and hosiery.14 Cigarette manufacturing, one of the South's most
profitable industries, simply pays the going wage in the area.
14 Harriet L. Herring, Southern Industry and Regional Development (Chapel Hill: University of North
Carolina Press, 1940), pp. 8-9 and charts pp. 66-67.
290
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 82. Wage Rates and Hours for Female Spinners and Weavers in
the Cotton Industry of Massachusetts and South Carolina, 1 890-1937
Massachusetts
South Carolina
Year
Hours
per week
Rates per hour
Hours
per week
Rates per hour
Spinner
Weaver
Spinner
Weaver
1890
60
55
58
58
58
56
53.9
53.7
47.9
48
48
48
48
48
35.1
SO. 091
.089
.092
.103
.122
.131
.150
.277
.506
.386
.437
.350
.342
.289
.454
SO. 119
.121
.125
.137
.156
.150
.168
.303
.548
.415
.487
.405
.415
.336
.523
66
66
66
66
65.7
60
60
56.5
54
54
55
55
54.8
55
33.7
SO. 030
.030
.033
.041
.079
.090
.106
.168
.391
.206
.219
.215
.222
.166
.350
SO. 062
1894
.067
1898
.060
1902
.068
1906 .
.099
1910
.122
1914
.130
1918
.200
1920
.468
1924
.260
1926
.291
1928
.277
1930
.312
1932
.262
1937
.486
Source: M. A. Beney, Differentials in Industrial IVages and Hours in the Un
Studies, 1938; History of Wages in the United States from Colonial Times to
Labor Statistics, Bulletin 604 (1934).
ited States, National Industrial Conference Board
1928, with Supplement, 1929-32, U. S. Bureau of
Figure 183. Comparative Wage Rates for Female Weavers and Spinners
in Cotton Textiles, Massachusetts and South Carolina, 1 890-1937
CENTS PER HOUR
60
1890 1895 1900
Source: See Table 82.
1905
I9IO
1925
1930
1940
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 291
Variations in types of industry, in processes of manufacturing, and the
degree of competition to which the industry and its workers are exposed
may be as important as different skills, the composition of labor, lack of
unionization, and industrial location. The value added by manufacturing
(1937) per wage earner is much lower in the Southeast than in the Nation
as a whole — $1,987 as compared with $2,938. South Carolina with a much
lower average wage than New York ($707 as compared with $1,241), paid
52.3 percent of its value added by manufacture out in wages as compared
with only 37.3 percent for New York. Nor is it necessarily true that all
South Carolina industries have lower capital costs. Thus, as Harriet L.
Herring points out, New York has nearly 300,000 wage earners (some 30
percent of its total) in clothing industries which require only from $400
to $1,000 per wage earner, while South Carolina has some 88,000 of its
total wage earners in cotton mills which require around $3,000 capital in-
vestment per worker.15
THE RANGE AND SEQUENCE OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
Industries tend to assemble in typical cluster and to feed, as it were,
at each others' tables on the goods and services they pass from hand to hand.
One way of studying industrialization, accordingly, is to note the range and
sequence of industrial development. The emergence of a textile complex,
surrounded by a large degree of diversified small industry was evident in
the Catawba Valley before the Civil War.
By i860 nearly every county in the area had one or more factories to
report to the census takers. Six of these counties reported 7 cotton mills
with 114 workers and 2 woolen mills with 102 workers. In addition the
Valley reported establishments engaged in making agricultural implements,
boots and shoes, cabinet work and furniture, carriages, wagons and carts,
clothing, cooperage, flour and meal, harness and saddles, hats, iron and
brass castings, linseed oil, liquors, lumber, waste paper, tobacco, manufac-
turers tin, copper, and sheet iron works. Lincoln County reported 72 estab-
lishments with 21 different kinds of manufacturing, a greater variety than
contained in the county today.16 Many of the area's industries served the
Confederacy during the War and then shared the fate of all industry dur-
ing the period that followed.
After Reconstruction, the resurgence of cotton textiles initiated the new
sequence of development and the Valley took its place as an entering wedge
of industrialization in the Southeast. The shift of cotton manufacturing to
Ibid., pp. 8-9. See also Julius Hochman, Industry Planning Through Collective Bargaining (New
York: I. L. G. W. Union, 1941), p. 10.
18 Harriet L. Herring, "Early Industrial Development in the South," The Annals of the American
Academy of Political and Social Science, 153 (January, 1931), 1-10.
292
ALL THESE PEOPLE
the Southeast took three forms: the growth of southern enterprises, the
outright removal of northern companies, and the building of branch plants
in the South. The initial building of southern mills, financed largely by
southern capital, undoubtedly began the southern migration.
In their various stages followed lumbering, tobacco, hydroelectric
power, furniture, hosiery (knit goods), etc. For a long time textiles were
synonymous with manufacturing in the South, bidding fair to become as
much a field of concentration as the one-crop system. The first stage was
in semifinished textiles and for a long time the area produced little beyond
the basic yarns and gray goods.
By 1900 with one-fifth of the population, the whole Valley area had
approximately 39 percent of the manufactures of the two States in terms
of such measures as number of wage earners, wages paid, value of product,
etc. The Valley has maintained the early lead it took in the industrializa-
tion of the two Carolinas. By 1920 the Valley with 24.5 percent of total
population accounted for from 43 to 48 percent of the manufacturing; and
by 1930 it had 27.8 percent of the population and from 52 to 54 percent
of the wage earners and wages paid in the two Carolinas. Its proportion of
establishments has been notably smaller, indicating the predominance of
large-sized units in the area. From 1900 to 1930 the number of wage earn-
ers in the Carolinas increased over one and a half times (66 percent);
whereas in the 23 counties the number increased almost two and one-half
times (146.4 percent). Values of manufactured products in the Valley
multiplied by 10 and more in the period. Physical quantities, on the other
Table 83. Industries With Five or More Establishments, Catawba
Valley, 1929
Industry
Number of
Establishments
Cotton goods 326
Lumber and timber products 215
Furniture, including store and office fixtures 92
Planing mill products, not made in mills connected with
saw mills 86
Knit goods 86
Flour and grain-mill products 74
Ice, manufacturing 67
Printing and publishing (news and periodicals) 66
Beverages 63
Printing and publishing (book and job) 56
Bakery products 55
Foundry and machine shop products; not elsewhere
classified 50
Textile machinery and parts 30
Fertilizers 25
Oil, cake and meal, cotton seed 25
Ice cream 21
Dyeing and finishing textiles 19
Industry
Number of
Establishments
Marble, granite, slate, etc 18
Silk and rayon manufacturing 15
Mattresses and bed springs 15
Concrete products 14
Gas manufacturing, illuminating and heating 12
Clay products (other than pottery) and nonclay
refractories 12
Cigars and cigarettes 10
Cordage and twine 10
Copper, tin and iron sheet works 10
Leather belting 8
Men's work clothing, not including shirts 8
Motor vehicle bodies and body parts 8
Cotton small wares 6
Mirrors 6
Women's clothing, n.e.c 5
Men's furnishing goods 5
Shirts 5
Signs and advertising novelties 5
Source: Harriet L. Herring in A Survey of the Catawba Valley, I (unpublished manuscript. Institute for Research in Social
Science, University of North Carolina, 1935).
INDUSTRIALIZATION OF RURAL AREAS 293
hand, probably increased no more than six or seven times, owing in part
to the trend toward a more finished product.
Compared with its States, the Valley had a more varied group of manu-
factures, possessing according to the classification of the Census of Manu-
factures, 105 different kinds of industry as against 134 for North Carolina
and 89 for South Carolina. Most of the variety, however, is contributed
by a few counties, notably Mecklenburg and Guilford Counties in North
Carolina. Lincoln County with 12 types has less variety than it possessed
in i860.
Table 83 gives the important manufacturing industries in the area in
1929 and indicates the industries that cluster around textiles, furniture,
knit goods, etc. Recent data indicate a further shift from cotton textiles to
hosiery and rayon.
CHAPTER 19
THE RISE OF AN INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY
The relation of rural, village, and urban areas in the industrial pattern
of the Piedmont can be shown by a study of an industrial city of moderate
size in relation to its hinterland. High Point, North Carolina, the area's
pioneer furniture manufacturing center offers a case study in community
development in this industrial area. It is surrounded by large and small
industrial centers, many of which are still dominated by their agricultural
hinterlands.1
High Point has a population of over 38,000 and the area within a 40
mile radius thereof contains over 500,000 people, with some 60 percent
classified as rural. Seven miles from High Point is located Thomasville,
another furniture manufacturing center with a population of 11,073. ^n
the open country in nearly every direction from High Point, especially to
the south, can be found small textile mills, each situated on the edge of a
stream. Clustered about each mill is a small village. These are mainly old
mills built in the days of water power. While some of these mills have
been abandoned in the course of time, others have been taken over, repaired
by various companies, and put back in operation. Typical of the surround-
ing rural mill villages are Jamestown, Central Falls, Cedar Falls, Worth-
ville, Ramseur, Randleman, Kernersville, Erlanger, Franklinville, and
Gibsonville (Figure 184).
While High Point is dominated by larger cities like Winston-Salem
and Greensboro, it in turn serves as a trade center and source of employ-
ment for smaller cities. Furniture manufacturing predominates with ho-
siery gaining in importance. Subsidiary are firms engaged in manufactur-
ing supplies for the furniture industry. Cotton textiles are also present,
but of minor importance.
1 The field work and preliminary analysis of this study were done by Ruth Crowell Leafer under the
author's supervision, in connection with a study by the National Resources Planning Board.
[ 294]
THE RISE OF AN INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY
Figure 184. The High Point Area
295
Source: See Figure 179, p.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FURNITURE INDUSTRY
In the decades after 1880 the furniture manufacturing industry was
undergoing changes in its processes, its markets, its materials, and its loca-
tion. In this period North Carolina turned to the making of furniture as
an early step in industrialization. The industrialization of the rural com-
munity that pioneered in furniture is typical to a large extent of the move-
ment in the Catawba Valley.
In the 1870's High Point was a small trade center for a rural area. In-
corporated with 250 inhabitants in 1859 at the junction of the projected
North Carolina Railroad with the intersection of two stage lines — the
Great Northern and the Southern States — it boasted one factory making
296 ALL THESE PEOPLE
wagon stocks and spokes. Woodworking began in 1872 when a former
Union soldier, Captain W. H. Snow of Vermont, brought the first band
saw to the State. As a soldier he had noticed the hardwoods available in
the area. After the War he returned to set up an establishment for making
shuttle blocks and bobbins for use in the textile mills of New England.
The completion of the High Point-Randleman-Asheboro Railroad in 1888
opened up large tracts of hardwood timber in Randolph County.
That year, encouraged by Snow's success, four local citizens embarked
on the business of manufacturing cheap furniture. The venture prospered
and was followed by other enterprises, all financed by "native" capital and
directed by "native" management. By 1902 there were about 14 furniture
factories in High Point and the town had extended its activities into such
allied lines as a broom factory, kitchen cabinet plant, trunk and organ works,
and a buggy company. The community has always made much of the fact
that, once started by the Vermont captain, the development was indigenous.
The early captains of industry drew their capital from the mercantile
businesses that High Point had developed as a trade center and attracted
their labor from the farms of the surrounding rural areas. They built on
the prevailing skills of carpenters and small craftsmen. Unlike the textile
manufacturers, the employers did not develop housing for the workers who
moved into High Point.
Next in order of development was the seamless hosiery industry which
was started by the construction of a factory in High Point in 1903 with 14
stockholders and a capitalization of $24,500. The manufacture of full-
fashioned hosiery was not begun until 1929. From 1936 to 1940 the ho-
siery industry experienced a large growth in the area. Upward of 150 mil-
lion pairs were produced in High Point each year before the silk trade with
Japan was cut off. With the surrounding centers this was the largest
hosiery-producing area in the South, exceeded in the Nation only by the
Philadelphia-Reading area. Approximately one-sixth of the 600 hosiery
plants in the United States were located within a 75 mile radius of High
Point.
In 1 92 1 the Southern Furniture Exposition Building was erected at
High Point to serve as the market for the Southern Furniture Manufactur-
ers. It contains 275,000 square feet of exposition space. From 2,000 to
3,000 buyers attend the market during the July and January shows. By
1929 North Carolina had risen to the fifth-ranking State in the production
of household furniture, and the High Point Market was outranked only
by the National Market at Chicago, the New York, and the Grand Rapids
Markets.
THE RISE OF AN INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY 297
Thomasville, seven miles to the west, grew as a satellite of the develop-
ment in furniture at High Point. With only one-third the population of
High Point, but with larger plants using more efficient methods, it out-
stripped High Point in furniture production in the last decade. Two
cotton textile mills with mill villages and seamless hosiery complete the
town's industrial pattern. Unlike that of High Point, Thomasville's
furniture industry has a larger pay roll and is more important than either
hosiery or textiles.
FACTORS IN THE RISE OF THE FURNITURE INDUSTRY
As an industry in flux, furniture has been influenced by many trends.
Before the beginnings of High Point, possibly by 1870, the trend was well
under way in this country toward improvement in machinery, reduction in
costs, the substitution of quantity production for custom-made goods, and
the consequent widening of markets with the increased purchasing power
of rising middle classes. With the greater availability of liquid capital, the
factory system and quantity production began to dominate the industry.
In spite of the fact that furniture manufacturing is not wholly adaptable
to straight-line production methods, the small custom shop and the old
cabinet maker were pushed further and further into the background. The
output of the industry increased as costs decreased and the quality was
held to improve. Furniture thus was an expanding industry at the time
High Point entered the picture; and the growing markets were located in
the West and South. Moreover the tendency of furniture manufacturing
to resist straight-line production methods and to center on rising new mar-
kets has enabled it to resist the general trend toward concentration.
Compared with these trends toward new processes and new markets,
the primary resources in the immediate High Point area do not loom so
large. The chief factors were raw materials, labor supply, and transporta-
tion. Less important to the furniture industry appears to have been the
new source of hydroelectric power. No furniture plants were electrified in
1900 and they have been the slowest of all major local manufacturing es-
tablishments to make use of electricity. As late as 1925 only 55.4 percent
of the plants were using electricity alone or combined with other power.
Only 37.6 percent were using electric power alone. Steam power was
cheapest in the early days, mainly because great quantities of scrap lumber
were burned in the boilers to generate steam power. However, as timber
became more expensive its by-products were more closely utilized.
In its early relation to the railroad, High Point simply repeated the
history of many cities. The projection of an early railroad determined the
city's location; the completion of a local road served to open up sources of
298 ALL THESE PEOPLE
raw materials; and the incorporation of the old North Carolina Railroad
in the Southern Railway System gave access to markets to the North and
West as well as to the growing southern market. With the South's recov-
ery after the Civil War, levels of living rose and railroad nets spread. It
is not surprising, therefore, that High Point, as the furniture center farthest
South, came to tap these markets.
What should be explained, however, is the appearance of High Point
furniture in the national market. Here the explanation lies in the action of
southern carriers in establishing low freight rates to important eastern mar-
kets. With its dependence on staple crops, the South imported much in the
way of fabricated goods and farm supplies, hay and grain from western
and northeastern territory. Since much of the South's export staples, cot-
ton, tobacco, etc., went overseas, many empty cars were hauled back by the
carriers. To remedy this situation the railroads offered low rates to the
High Point manufacturers within the rate territory of the southern carriers,
West and North to the Ohio River. When these rates were lowered suffi-
ciently to compensate for the high rates incidental to transportation outside
southern territory, High Point manufacturers were able to lay down furni-
ture beyond the Ohio in competition with the Michigan industry. This ad-
vantage continued to nurture the High Point industry after the rate struc-
ture was consolidated under the supervision of the Interstate Commerce
Commission. The present rates are the original subnormal rates subjected
to the general increases and reductions that have prevailed since that
period.2
The availability of raw materials has changed greatly within the brief
period of High Point's development. In the beginning the available lum-
ber supply easily seemed the most favorable of all local factors. The tim-
ber supply immediately around High Point was abundant. The original
hardwood supply within access of High Point extending through the Appa-
lachians has been estimated by the United States Forestry Service at more
than 325 billion board feet of lumber. Today not more than 60 billion
board feet remain and most of this has been culled. About 12 percent of
the stand is spruce, hemlock, and pine; about 35 percent is oak of various
species; and about 25 percent, chestnut. The chestnut blight, moreover,
has greatly depleted this timber. The Forestry Service estimated that
2 ". . . The long-continued policy of the southern carriers has been to maintain on articles manufac-
tured in the South rates which would enable southern manufacturers to reach the large consuming markets
in the North. . . . Those carriers say that when the furniture industry of the South was in its infancy
they established, in line with that policy, rates below normal to important consuming markets in eastern
territory... The present rates are said to be the original subnormal rates subjected to the general in-
creases and reduction, except for certain minor modifications . . ." U. S. Interstate Commerce Commission,
Furniture from southern points to trunk line and New England territories... Decided July I, 1925 (too
I. C. C. Reports 127-152).
THE RISE OF AN INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY
within 15 years the Appalachians will cease to be an important source of
higlf grade hardwood and that within 20 years the virgin timber will have
practically disappeared.
The depletion of hardwood has led to higher costs of raw materials,
substitution of new woods such as gum, and better utilization of by-prod-
ucts. Higher costs of wood undoubtedly have served to effect changes in
styles. Developments in upholstering have been accompanied by the in-
creased use of hardwood veneers, glued on low-grade woods. For finishing
and for specialty goods the factories of High Point have drawn mahogany
from Africa and South America, cane and rattan from Singapore and the
Philippines, burlap from India, hardware and the finer fabrics from New
England, and plate glass from the Pittsburgh district. Increasingly they
have been forced to draw upon the hardwoods from the Mississippi Valley.
This depletion of its major raw materials is a serious threat to the stability
of the industry. The immediate accessibility of raw materials appears to
have been a primary cause of the location of the industry at High Point.
As this resource becomes less accessible, what will increased costs mean to
the competitive position of High Point? Statistics show that the city has
not regained the level of output held before the depression, even when
allowances are made for the decline in the price of furniture since 1929.
Beginning with low-priced and relatively unskilled labor, the area
never developed the pattern of the old style craftsman and cabinet maker
of highest artistry. In the early period the city trained its workers on low-
grade furniture for a cheap market, and by the time its quality had im-
proved, quantity production had largely replaced the tradition of the old
cabinet maker. In early years at High Point tables and chairs, for example,
were manufactured by separate companies; and the merchants who had to
buy furniture separately, tried to match them in order to give the cus-
tomer a matched suite. Gradually the product was improved, methods of
production were changed, and improved styles and better designs were
featured. Southern furniture production, however, has been largely of the
cheaper and medium priced bedroom and dining room suites. Furniture
manufactured in High Point is now classified as 15 percent fine grades, 70
percent medium grades and 15 percent cheap grades. North Carolina and
Virginia combined produce about one-third of all bedroom furniture and
slightly less than one-third of all dining room furniture produced in the
Nation. North Carolina still leads in wooden bedroom furniture.
Most of the laborers in furniture manufacturing are semi-skilled and
unskilled workers, because of the introduction of automatic machinery, de-
partmentalization and the division of labor within departments, and the use
of straight-line production methods. Last to yield has been the work of
300 ALL THESE PEOPLE
the upholsterers, but even here the skill that was once demanded has
largely given way to subdivision into tasks that can be done by semi-skilled
workers. Quantity production, however, must be counted in terms of
hundreds rather than thousands, and "goods still require from 30 to 120
days to build." In addition a number of highly skilled tasks remain in the
industry, especially in the construction of samples, the setting and oper-
ating of certain machines and in special finishing jobs. Wages vary greatly
and are not always in close relation to skills. Furniture workers were
largely unorganized in 1940, and High Point was no exception.
SPATIAL AND STRUCTURAL ASPECTS OF THE INDUSTRIAL PATTERN
More than is commonly realized, industrialization is responsible for
changing the structural and spatial relationships of communities. The prob-
lem of a moderately sized city in a pattern of diffused industrialization can
be stated in terms of the areas it dominates and the centers which dominate
it. This, in turn, is reflected in the internal structure of the city itself.
High Point is a two-industry town. Furniture and hosiery offer the
main sources of employment. A division of labor exists between the sexes,
with men working almost entirely in furniture and about an equal number
of men and women working in hosiery. With industrial workers dependent
mainly on two industries subject to seasonal fluctuations with consequent
lay-offs, High Point suffers from the lack of a more varied type of indus-
trialization. Particularly needed are more skilled industries to balance the
relative low-wage, semi-skilled seamless hosiery and cotton yarn plants.
In its wider aspects there is apparent the dominance of the new indus-
trial community over the agricultural hinterland out of which it grew. On
the other hand, the city itself is overshadowed by large centers. In its in-
ternal aspects there is the growth and differentiation of the city's own phys-
ical structure in its residential, commercial, and industrial districts.
The commercial, wholesale and retail areas of the city are underdevel-
oped. High Point's trading area extends to about a fifteen mile radius to
the south of the city and only about seven miles in other directions. Win-
ston-Salem and Greensboro give severe competition to both its retail and
wholesale stores. In per capita retail trade, High Point ranks among the
lowest for cities of its size in the State.
In the early days, people built their homes along the railroads, and
the residential and industrial areas are now intermixed as a result of the
early unplanned years of growth. A zoning commission was set up and has
been operating since 1928. Most of the damage, however, was done long
before 1928 and a great deal of it cannot be repaired.
Cotton mill workers live in two mill villages consisting of cottages of
THE RISE OF AN INDUSTRIAL COMMUNITY 301
three to five rooms. In 1941 these houses rented at 'the rate of 25 cents \
per room per week. All the houses were old with one spigot of cold running
water, no hot water, no bathtubs, and only a few kitchen sinks. Toilets
were of the water closet type, some situated in an outdoor building. Water
was free and electricity was 4 cents a kilowatt-hour. Furniture and hosiery
workers lived within the general area of working-men's homes. For their ,
houses, they paid from $12 to $20 a month rent. Because of their cheaper/
rents, cotton mill employees have lower living costs than similarly paid
workers in furniture and hosiery.
High Point's relation to the surrounding areas furnishes a complex
situation in which industry and agriculture play important parts. To be
considered are the farmers who look to High Point for a market for their
produce, and the industrial workers who live in the towns and countryside.
Approximately 3,000 of the 10,132 wage earners reported for High Point
live outside the city. A count from the city directory showed that they
come from addresses on five rural routes and 28 cities and towns within a
radius of 40 miles.
There is a complex interchange of labor between High Point and
Winston-Salem, Greensboro, Thomasville, Lexington, Asheboro, and all
of the smaller communities and rural areas contiguous. In the main, this
movement takes place among the four predominating industries; cotton
textiles, hosiery, furniture, and tobacco manufactures. Lacking interchange
among the variety of industries that would be found in a metropolitan
area, workers resort to greater geographic mobility supplemented by shifts
between industry and agriculture. Decentralization of this type, lacking
the interurban transport characteristic of more densely settled areas, was
especially vulnerable to the rationing of gasoline and tires which followed
the outbreak of World War II.
There is no large scale or highly mechanized farming in the area. To-
bacco, the main crop, is marketed in Winston-Salem and is thus of little
value to High Point. Dairying has made gains in the past fifteen years and
the keeping of live-stock has also increased. High Point is a good market
for both of these products. The farm problem and its adjustment to fit in
with nearby city markets is much the same here as in other parts of the
South. A needed development advantageous to both farmers and city
dwellers is large-scale truck farming. The cultivation of fruits and berries
has been suggested as a good interchange between the rural regions and
High Point and as a basis for a canning industry in the city. Farmers still
cling to the old way of growing a cash crop of tobacco and cotton on de-
pleted soil instead of branching out into general truck farming.
On the other hand, members of farm families frequently seek and ob-
3o2 ALL THESE PEOPLE
tain part-time employment in the local industries. It is not uncommon,
for instance, to find farmers' wives working in the hosiery mills or farm
youths employed in the furniture industry during the peak winter months.
The past ten years have been marked by the tendency of city workers
to move out to the rural areas. Land sales are booming in areas around
High Point, usually centering around a country school. It has been found,
however, that the workers who have moved to these areas do little farming
beyond keeping a cow and chickens. From the standpoint of planning, this
recent move of city workers to the country would suggest the possible de-
velopment of suburban residential areas with low-cost housing and well-
integrated small communities offering not only water, lights, and sewage
disposal facilities but educational and social advantages.
CHAPTER 20
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION
Equally important as a discussion of the factors contributing to the rise
of industry in the Southern Piedmont is an appraisal of the effects of indus-
trialization on the area. The following section discusses the extent to which
industry is decentralized, the effects of industrialization on population and
on agriculture, and the emergence of part-time farming.
TO WHAT EXTENT IS INDUSTRY DECENTRALIZED?
Since the degree of industrial concentration is a relative matter, the
status of the Southeastern Piedmont may be shown by comparison 'with
New England, one of the oldest industrial areas. In this regional compari-
son the textile industry may serve as a common denominator. The compari-
son is made before the war economy had increased the concentrations in
munitions and heavy industry. In 1940, as Figure 185 indicates, there
were 68 counties in the United States each with 100,000 or more cotton
textile spindles. These counties are located mainly in the New England
States and the Southeast. Examination of the two regions indicates that in
the New England States the textile industry is highly concentrated in
metropolitan areas and in the Southeast is widely dispersed. Only 13 of
the 57 main cotton-spindle counties in the Southeast employed as many as
10,000 manufacturing wage earners in 1929. Thus, the textile industry in
this region is comparatively scattered. To a greater extent than in New
England, the industrial prominence of a county is determined by the pres-
ence of textiles and allied industries.
The shift in cotton textiles is evidently a trend toward the decentraliza-
tion of a contracting industry. The peak year for cotton spindles in place
was 1925 with 37.9 millions (Figure 186). By 1940 this figure had de-
clined to 24% millions (Figure 185) although active spindle hours had
increased with the introduction of double and triple shifts. A comparison
between the two regions for this period shows that the main New England
[303]
3°4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure i8<;. Counties Having ioo,ooo or
More Textile Spindles, United States,
1939-40
Figure 186. Counties Having 100,000 or
More Textile Spindles, United States,
1925
100 000- 199.999
200.000 - 499.999
900.000 - 999.999
.1)00.000 UNO OVER
g^l 100 000-199.999
200.000 - 499.999
500.000 - 999.999
.000.000 ANO OVER
Source: Cotton Production and Distribution, 1939
1940, United States Department of Commerce.
Source: Cotton Production and Distribution, 1925,
United States Department of Commerce.
1940, United scales ucpaiuucju ui v«"".~.* — ■
counties lost 12,636,126 spindles, a decrease of 68.4 percent in 15 years
while the main southern counties gained only 630,944 spindles, a 49 per-
cent increase. Each of the 21 New England counties showed an absolute
decline in the number of cotton spindles while 2 1 of the South's 57 counties
showed a decline. Active spindles in all New England counties declined
from 15.9 to 5.3 millions; in all counties of the cotton growing States they
increased from 17.3 to 17.6 millions.
The degree of concentration can be shown further by the number and
proportion of industrial wage earners as well as the density of the popula-
tion The accompanying Figures 187 and 188 show 36 Piedmont counties
with less than 5,000 wage earners while the New England industrial areas
had only 4 such counties in 1930.1 Fourteen southern counties and nine
New England counties had from 5,000 to 10,000 wage earners each. The
Piedmont had 10 counties2 with from 10,000 to 40,000 wage earners and
• A. n„mW of waee earners between the two areas, 16 counties have
Mn considering d,fferences « .the ^J^J, tQ ^ New England cott0n-spindle counties
b£T- add£ ot" ^Tto low furthe^h?:onceenntrated nature of the area surrounding the spindle counties,
making a total of 34 tojow tu ^ ^ g. ^ .^^ the £ntire Catawba
VZ^Z^^ZXJ* -*£ D-ie which are in the Valley and did not
have ,00,000 cotton spindles either _ in jjjjj « ^ ^ ^ c,assification a3
an £2SS£^£^ 5S of Charlotte, .eluding this count, would make „
southern counties industrially important.
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION
305
Figure 187. Number of Wage Earners in
Major Textile Areas, United States,
1940
Figure 188. Percentage of Industrial
Wage Earners in the Total Gainfully
Employed Major Textile Areas, United
States, i 940
WAGE EARNER I 940
G22 UNOER5.0OO
5.000 - 9.999
10.000- 39.999
40.000 AND OVER
PERCENTAGE
E33 UNDER 20
20-29
30-39
40 AND OVER
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States,
1940.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States,
1940.
New England had 11 counties. The South had no major industrial area
(40,000 or more wage earners), while New England had 10 counties in-
cluded as parts of major industrial areas. While 61.8 percent of New Eng-
land's counties were classed as industrially important (10,000 or more
manufacturing wage earners), only 18 percent of the South's counties were
so listed.
The density of population by counties in 1940 (Figure 189) indicates
the concentration in the area. Fifteen, or 44 percent, of the counties in
New England had a density exceeding 300 people per square mile. Four
had a density of above 1,000 people, one non-textile county surpassing all
with a density of 15,695.4. Only 5 southern counties of the total 61 had
a density of over 300. Instead, 37 of the southern counties had a density of
less than 100 persons. This compares with 8 New England counties, or
23.5 percent, having densities of less than 100.
In its trend toward industrialization, the area had developed a popula-
tion pattern with a density much lower than that of other industrial areas.
The more populated areas including the cities mentioned, have a density
lower than that of the textile sections of New England. The lack of over-
crowding is directly reflected in differences in housing. In southern areas
306
ALL THESE PEOPLE
single family dwellings with yard space predominate, whereas congested
flats and tenements are common in the more mature economic areas of New
England.
Thus it appears that a different type of industrial metropolis is evolv-
ing in the Piedmont — the small central city with a fairly well diffused
peripheral area. In 1930 the census found no area in the two Carolinas
that conformed to its definition of a metropolitan area.3 The contiguous in-
dustrial area along the Southern Railway from Greensboro to Greenville,
somewhat resembles a loosely strung metropolitan district. Except for
sporadic gaps, there was in 1940 a continuous line of townships with a den-
sity of 150 or more. With a liberalizing of the census criteria in 1940 there
emerged five metropolitan zones in the area: Winston-Salem, Greensboro,
Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg.
Figure 189. Density of Population in
Major Textile Areas, United States, 1940
In addition to comparisons in the num-
ber of wage earners and the density of
population (Figures 187 and 189) another
measure of the relative degree of indus-
trialization was applied to the two areas.
Figure 188 shows the proportion of gain-
fully employed who are classified as indus-.
trial wage earners in the selected coun-
ties. This figure ranged from 6.8 per-
cent in the least industrial county to 61.9
percent in a highly industrialized county.
In northern areas large industrial counties
with over 40 percent wage earners pre-
dominate, but a definite pattern does not
emerge for the two areas. This may be
due to the effect that industrial concen-
trations have in increasing the numbers
employed in trade, transportation, distri-
bution, and the services. In a basically
agrarian economy the proportions em-
ployed in such services appear unduly
small.
\//A UNDER TOO
100-299
300-999
000 AKO OVER
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United Slates, 1940.
DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY BY SIZE OF COMMUNITY
Further light can be thrown on the status of decentralization by study-
ing the location of industries by size of city. Within the 17 counties in
the North Carolina Piedmont are some 88 cities, towns, and villages. While
all of these places offer some employment in trade and service occupations,
3 The 1930 criteria for delimiting metropolitan areas were: (i) a central city of ;o,ooo inhabitants,
(2) contiguous minor civil divisions which have a density over 150 per square mile bringing the aggre-
gated metropolitan population to 100,000 or more. None of the Carolina cities conformed to this defini-
tion in 1930.
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION
307
75 have textile plants, 29 have furniture factories, 20 metal and machine
works, 18 stone, clay, and glass works, and 16 have chemical plants. Table
84 indicates the distribution by size of community. The transportation
equipment, chemical, and metal industries are to a great degree concen-
trated in the larger cities, whereas textiles show a tendency to locate in
small communities. The scatter of the several types of manufacturing
plants throughout the North Carolina Piedmont is indicated in Figures
190 and 191.
Table 84. Percent and Number of Manufacturing Establishments by
Size of City and Type of Manufacture, North Carolina Catawba
Valley, 1938
Type of Industry
Textiles
Furniture
Lumber
Chemicals
Leather
Metals
Paper
Stone, clay, glass
Transportation equipment .
Miscellaneous
Tobacco
Totals by size of city. .
Percent by size of city.
Number of Plants by Size of City
Unin-
corporated
26
6
S
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
40
3.7
Under
2,500
87
10
13
3
1
3
2
5
1
IS
0
140
13.0
2,500-
10,000
108
25
17
4
7
9
3
4
0
30
0
207
19.2
10,000-
25,000
146
39
22
7
4
32
1
12
1
39
0
303
29.2
25,000
and over
104
66
27
31
3
61
6
16
5
62
5
386
35.9
Total
by type
of mfg.
471
146
84
46
15
105
12
38
7
147
5
1,076
100.0
Percent of
all types
of mfg.
43.8
13.6
7.8
4.3
1.4
9.8
1.1
3.5
0.6
13.7
0.4
100.0
I
?qime: North Carolina Department of Conservation and Development, North Carolina Handbook of Industry (Raleigh, N. C,
Table 85. Number of Textile Establishments by Size of City and Type
of Textile Manufactured, North Carolina Catawba Valley, 1938
Type of textiles
manufactured
Unin-
corporated
Under
2,500
2,500-
10,000
10.000-
25,000
25,000
and over
Total number
by type of
textile
Percent of
all types of
textile
14
5
2
1
0
4
0
0
37
4
27
5
2
6
6
2
51
9
26
6
6
9
1
0
43
17
49
8
8
8
13
0
11
5
31
9
9
22
15
2
156
40
135
27
25
49
35
4
33.1
8.5
28.7
5.9
5.4
10.4
7.4
0.8
Cotton fabrics
Hosiery
Silk, rayon
Dyeing, finishing, etc. . . .
Miscellaneous
Apparel
Woolens, worsted
Totals by size of city. . . .
Percent by size of city. . .
26
5.5
87
18.5
108
22.9
146
31.0
104
22.1
471
100.0
100.0
Source: See Table 84.
Table 85 indicates the distribution of different types of textile plants
with respect to size of city in the Catawba Valley area. Thus plants making
wearing apparel (80 percent), silk and rayon (62.9 percent), and dyeing
and finishing (68 percent) are concentrated in cities of 10,000 and over,
while cotton yarns (64 percent) and to a less extent cotton fabrics (48
percent) are found in towns of less than 10,000. Figure 191 shows the
scatter of plants making various textile products in the Valley area.
3o8
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 190. The Distribution of Non-Textile Manufacturing Estab-
lishments in the Catawba Valley Power Province,
North Carolina, 1938
Source: See Table 84.
Figure 191. The Distribution of Textile Manufacturing Establish-
ments in the Catawba Valley Power Province, North Carolina, 1938
"L,°"iL.
c
BUI
■ t N
■
i
II
/
t BuTHMfONO ^ I W I ^ 10 to 30 40
■ 1 cle,u"° \ L J > V.
I I I (0 20 10 *Q 50 * * * I J' — ' ■ / utC'LtNOUtO T
e h-l—UI I I L, y,
NO.
OF ESTABLISHMENTS
APPAREL
YARNS
HOSIERY
FABRICS
SILK AND RAYON
DYEING AND FINISHING
WOOLENS
MISCELLANEOUS
Source: See Tables 84. and 85.
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION 309
INDUSTRIALIZATION AND POPULATION TRENDS IN THE VALLEY
We have seen that the rural South has the highest birth rate in the
United States, that agriculture has been none too prosperous, and that along
with the high rate of increase of the farm population has gone a great deal
of rural-urban migration. What has been the effect of industrialization on
population trends in the Catawba Valley? Has the population become con-
centrated in cities or has it remained largely rural? To what extent has
industrialization enabled the Valley to maintain its natural increase and
draw population from regions of less development? Has the increase of
farm population in the area been at all comparable to that of the urban
population? What effect has the depression had on migration and popula-
tion increase? These questions suggest some of the possible effects of in-
dustrialization on population trends in the area.
The twenty-four counties of the Catawba power province had in 1930
over a million and a third people, of whom 37.5 percent were classified as
urban. Of the rural population, 43 percent were nonfarm. These are higher
proportions than were found in the combined total for North and South
Carolina.
In the Catawba Valley, population has grown more rapidly than in
most sections of the South. The total population almost doubled from
1900 to 1930 and the urban population multiplied nearly five times. The
greatest growth occurred during the booming 1920's.
With no greater industrial opportunities elsewhere, population con-
tinued to increase during the depression period but at a lesser rate. By
1940, total population had grown to 1,575,990, an increase for the decade
of 14.4 percent. This was greater than the rate of increase of the Caro-
linas as a whole. The rural population increased to 975,587 and urban
population to 600,403. While many sections in the Southeast have barely
held their own in rural population, the twenty-four Catawba .counties
showed a 45 percent increase from 1900 to 1930. As nearly as can be esti-
mated this growth represents only a slight increase in the farm population,
a 33 percent increase in village dwellers, and a similar increase in other
rural non-farm people. In 1930, 63 percent of the population was still
rural.
The large proportion of rural non-farm people in the area is a direct
result of the scattering of industry, especially lumber and textiles, in smaller
villages throughout the area. In the Valley, 5.3 percent of the people live
in the rural towns of under 2,500, 6.6 percent in towns 2,500 to 10,000,
9.6 percent in cities 10,000 to 25,000, and 21.9 percent in cities of 25,000
and over. The remaining $6.6 percent of the population live in unincor-
porated areas, many around the larger centers.
310 ALL THESE PEOPLE
The region has a high birth rate and a low death rate, the former rang-
ing around 25 per 1,000 and the latter around 11 in the 1920's. This
provides a rate of natural increase of about 14 per 1,000, or nearly one
and one-half percent a year. The rural rate of natural increase is much
higher, for deaths are slightly below and births above the average. T. J.
Woofter, Jr., applied the rate of natural increase to the Valley population
for the period of 1900 to 1930 in order to determine the amount of migra-
tion into the area. He estimated that the Valley retained the equivalent
of its total natural increase during the period and received a migration
amounting to 20 percent of the 1930 population. Since many of the Val-
ley's population moved elsewhere during the period, the large migration
to the area is evident. Similar procedures applied for the years 193° to
1940 indicated that out of a population increase of 14.4 percent, only 2
percent gain was due to immigration.
About one-fifth of the Valley's population is colored. The Negro has
not participated in the industrial development to the extent that might have
been expected. Of all the population elements, rural and urban, white and
colored, only the rural Negro has remained stationary. There is some evi-
dence that here, as elsewhere in the Cotton Belt, white farmers replaced
Negroes with the advent of the boll weevil. From 19 10 to 1930 the num-
ber of urban Negroes practically doubled in the area, but the proportion of
Negroes in the total population declined from 27 to 21.4 percent in the
twenty-year period.
In analyzing the growth of industrial centers in the South, Woofter4
has shown that the white population increases at a much faster rate than
the Negro population. The failure of the Negro to participate in the gains
of the Piedmont is due to their exclusion from many types of industry.
Under prevailing conditions, the Negro can hardly expect to constitute
more than a minimum proportion of the manufacturing population.
INDUSTRIALIZATION AND THE OCCUPATIONAL DISTRIBUTION
The industrialization of the Valley naturally has affected the whole
distribution of occupations. The proportion in agriculture has fallen and
that in manufacturing has risen. In the two Carolinas 46.2 percent of those
gainfully employed in 1930 were in agriculture as compared with only
32.1 percent in the Valley area. On the other hand, the Valley had 36.6
percent in manufacturing and mechanical occupations as compared with
only 23.6 percent in the States. Thus with only 18.6 percent of the agri-
cultural workers in the Carolinas, the Valley region had 41.5 percent of
the two States' total in manufacturing and mechanical occupations. In ad-
4T. J. Woofter, Jr., Negro Migration (New York: Hillman, 1920), pp. 169-170. See also his Negro
Problems in Cities (Garden City, New York: Doubleday, Doran, 1928).
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION 311
dition, the proportions in trade,' public and professional services were higher
in the Valley area (15.6 percent as compared with less than 14 percent).
With negligible proportions of those engaged in manufacturing of glazed
and stone products, the Valley had a third of all those in the two States
employed in building and construction, a third of those in food products,
52 percent of those in furniture, and well over 60 percent of those em-
ployed in cotton mills, silk mills, and clothing manufactures.5
Yet the full effect of industrialization throughout the range of occu-
pations has not been felt in the Piedmont. The Southeast has 12.5 wage
earners for one salaried person in industry in 1937 in comparison with a
ratio of 7 to 1 for the United States as a whole. Only 0.5 percent of the
workers in the South's cotton textile industry can be regarded as techni-
cally skilled personnel. For the Nation the growth of industrialization,
with the increased importance of engineering, has meant the development
of a whole army of auxiliary technical forces. And since industrialization
has meant the sale of more goods, there has developed also a great army
of commercial, service, and clerical employees. In this way technical de-
velopment has accentuated the growth of white collar classes, lawyers,
clerks, salesmen, and technical men, engaged in processes that range all
the way from blueprinting to cost accounting.6 This group shifted from the
immediate functions of physical production to duties of administration,
distribution, technical supervision, and public relations is still largely un-
developed in the area. Such services tend to be concentrated in sales offices,
technical and financial headquarters outside the area. The region has
millhands, but too often for the area's own good, the technical and clerical
talent either remains undeveloped or is drawn out of the region.
THE EFFECT OF INDUSTRIALIZATION ON AGRICULTURE IN THE AREA
What changes in agriculture have been brought about by the indus-
trialization of the Catawba Valley? Agriculture has its own career, and
it would be a mistake to look to industry as -the main source of change.
Changes in the Valley's pattern of farming have been traced in two selected
areas: the Upper and the Lower Valley. The Upper contains the less in-
dustrialized zones in which agriculture approaches more closely the type
of subsistence farming practiced in the highlands. The Lower Valley is
not only more industrialized but also more adapted to staple agriculture,
especially cotton.
While the Valley has been expanding in population, industry, and
wealth, its agriculture has been contracting. There were 2,522 less farms
Harriet L. Herring- in A Survey of the Catawba Valley, I (unpublished manuscript, Institute for
Research in Social Science, University of North Carolina, 1935), pp. 113-115.
See Emil Lederer, "Technology," Encyclopaedia of the Social Sciences, 14, p. 559.
3i2 ALL THESE PEOPLE
in the area in 1930 than in 19 10, the area's high water mark in agriculture.
In marked contrast stands North Carolina, where the number of farms in-
creased each decade from 1900 to 1930. In the Upper Valley the average
size of farm declined from 97 acres in 1900 to 54 acres in 1930 and in the
Lower Valley from 84 acres to 64 acres. In the Lower Valley, a large per-
centage of the land area was in farms and a large share of the latter in
crops.
The tendency toward smaller farms has been general in the Southeast
and represents two trends: (1) abandonment of rough pasture and wood-
lands in farms, and (2) to a smaller degree, a decrease in the amount of
cropland and plowable pasture.
The abandonment of range land and marginal acres fitted in with the
general trend from the growing of livestock under open range conditions
to more intensive cultivation of staple crops after the introduction of com-
mercial fertilizer. Soil erosion has also been a factor in the loss of farm
acreage. The Upper Valley, however, has changed less than the Lower
Valley. In keeping with its mountain character it has only 32 percent of
its farm land in crops as compared with 49 percent in the Lower Valley.
Along with contraction of acreage the Valley has experienced steady
improvements in the per acre yields of the main crops — corn, cotton, wheat,
and oats. Use of the better land, increased fertilization, and more inten-
sive cultivation have contributed to this trend. The 1935 Census indicates
that per acre yields have continued to increase under the crop reduction
program.
From the previous discussion it is evident that the influence of indus-
trialization on agriculture includes the stimulus of the growth of popula-
tion, particularly in cities. Before the depression the farm population had
not increased above the 1910 level, and along with industrialization has
gone the release of waste and submarginal land in farms. As the country
built up, conditions of the open range gave way. Farms have grown
smaller, but by increasing expenditures for equipment and fertilizer are
able to produce larger yields per acre. Commercial farming continued to
grow in both areas until the advent of crop control forced a reduction in
staples. This trend toward staples was due partly to the spread of the boll
weevil which during the 1920's pushed cotton production north into the
Piedmont, an area largely unaffected by the insect. While the number of
livestock has decreased, value per animal has increased with the introduc-
tion of purebred stock. In 1930 there were 3 dairy cattle, 1 beef cattle,
23 swine, 37 chickens, and 2 work stock per 100 acres of farm land in the
Valley. While there are evidences of truck farming, or diversification and
dairying in the area, statistics are not available to show increases over a long
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION 313
period. The new agricultural program here as elsewhere has operated to
increase feed and forage crops at the expense of staples. The 1935 Census
accordingly shows the greatest degree of diversified farming yet developed
in the Valley.
This pattern of agriculture can be partly attributed to industrial devel-
opment. Abandonment of range land, more intensive cultivation, the in-
troduction of purebred stock, and growth of dairying are all related to the
development of new urban markets. In part-time farming we have an-
other change brought about by industry.
PART-TIME FARMING IN A DEPRESSION YEAR
As industrialization increased, the country developed that dual occu-
pation known as part-time farming. As factories were built throughout
the area, farmers and farmers' sons went into industrial employment while
maintaining their farm residence, and industrial workers have moved out
of mill villages to farmsteads. The map of part-time farmers in the South-
east from the Census of 1930 shows their proximity to cities and indus-
trial centers as well as to such open-country enterprises as lumbering and
the production of naval stores.7
While it is evident that families better their condition by making the
transition from agriculture to industry in the Southeast, there is some doubt
as to whether any net gain in income is achieved by industrial workers from
residence in the open country. No investigation has been made in the Pied-
mont, but a suggestive study of a newly industrialized rural area in Missis-
sippi contrasts the levels of income in industrial, farm, and part-time farm
families. In all these families the wives worked either in industry or in
agriculture. Industrially employed families averaged the highest annual
income, $1,010 a year (Table 86). Where both husband and wife were
employed full-time in industry, little difference was found between resi-
dence in a mill village or in the open country. Lower incomes, averaging
$822 a year, were found in families in which the husband farmed full-time
and the wife worked in industry. The income of this group exceeded that
of families in which the husband was a part-time farmer and the wife gave
assistance in farm work. Here the total income averaged $721. The in-
come of the full-time farmer's family of which no member worked in in-
dustry was the lowest of all — $524 a year. As long as industrial employ-
ment maintains an income advantage of nearly 2 to 1 over agriculture, in-
dustry will experience no difficulty in drawing workers from the farms.
Farm residence, however, will continue to offer advantages to industrial
workers.
7 See R. H. Allen and Others, Part-Time Farming in the Southeast, W. P. A. Research Monograph, IX
(Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1937), p. xxi.
314-
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 86. Comparative Incomes of Industrial and Farm Families,*
1935-1936
Type of family by industrial status
Average income
per member
Size of family
Average annual
income by type
Husband and wife industrially employed with open country residence. . .
Husband and wife industrially employed with mill village residence
?259
246
265
157
119
3.9
4.1
3.1
4.6
4.4
?1,010
1,009
822
721
524
•Random samples picked within ten-mile radius of three garment factories in which industrially employed wives worked. Based
on 40-49 schedules for each type. These were normal families; each husband and wife kept house during year. Wives were
farm reared and in 17-34 year age group. No families receiving pensions or work relief. Employment defined as 150 days'
work or more and census definition of part-time farmer used. Income included net incomes from farms, value of occupancy
of homes, the value of inventory change in livestock and crops stored for sale.
Source: Dorothy Dickins, "Some Contrasts in Levels of Living in Industrial, Farm and Part-Time Farm Families in Run
Mississippi," Social Forces, 18 (December, 1939), 247-255.
No statistics are available to trace the movement toward part-time
farming before 1930, but it is known that farmers have long engaged in
such outside employment as road building and construction. On the basis
of the census definition, 14.3 percent of the farmers enumerated in the
Valley in 1930 were reported as part-time ranging from 19.1 to 5.1 per-
cent in various counties.
PART-TIME FARMERS IN INDUSTRY
A Civil Works Administration study of part-time farming in the area
revealed that, in 1933, 1,563 families averaged 5.5 persons per family and
furnished a total of 2,188 nonagricultural workers.8 These were distrib-
uted as follows: 74.3 percent were in manufacturing and mining; 8.1 per-
cent were in trade ; 6.8 percent in transportation and commerce ; with
lesser proportions in domestic, professional, and public service. The total
number of secondary census occupations was found to be 189. They ranged
from gold digging and dog training through industry to preaching. Classi-
fied according to the census groupings they show 575 workers in furniture
and allied industries, 224 in cotton mills, 174 in saw mills, 172 in knit-
ting silk and woolen mills, 159 in the building industry, with smaller
numbers scattered throughout other industries. Of those reporting dis-
tance to work, nearly one-third traveled less than 5 miles and roughly one-
half from 5 to 10 miles.
The nonfarm income of these families was affected by three major fac-
tors: the number of workers per family, the amount of time worked, and
8 The schedules on which this analysis is based were secured by enumerators employed by the Civil
Works Administration for the Division of Subsistence Homesteads, Department of Interior. Usable sched-
ules for some 1,563 part-time farmers living in 33 townships were taken in 15 selected townships in three
counties of the Upper Valley and the three counties of the Power Province. Since census definition vas
not followed in securing these schedules, this survey is not comparable with studies based on the census.
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION
3i5
the occupational level. The effect of the depression was evident in lay-
offs and low annual wages. The workers spent an average of 170 days at
nonagricultural occupations and almost three-fifths (57.6 percent) had
less than 200 days' work. The 1,091 families with only one worker had a
median of only 136 days' employment in nonagricultural occupations.
PART-TIME FARMERS IN AGRICULTURE
Part-time farmers secure their living from two sources. In the above
sample, the farm yielded them an average gross income of $357.03. This
figure included the value of all products consumed by the family as well
as those sold. The expenses of farm operations other than the unpaid fam-
ily labor averaged $82.53, per farm, leaving a net farm income of $274.50.
If the low industrial incomes of this group during the depression were
due to low wages and short working period, to what were their low farm
incomes due? Comparison with farmers in three counties of the Upper
Valley as reported in the 1930 Census indicates that part-time farmers
operate on a small scale. Without attempting to make allowance for
changes from 1930 to 1933, Table 87 indicates that the average part-time
farm was about one-third (35.3 percent) as large, slightly over one-half as
valuable, and produced less than one-half the gross value of products of
the average general farm. In proportion to size and value of farms the
gross incomes of part-time farmers are higher than the actual figures would
indicate.
Table 87. Comparison of Average Farm Values in the Upper Valley,
1930-1933
Farm value
All farms
1930
Part-time
farms 1933
Ratio of
part-time
to all farms
Farm value
All farms
1930
Part-time
farms 1933
Ratio of
part-time
to all farms
Average gross value of
?792
75.1
S2.842.44
3360
26.9
31,639.99
Percent
45.5
35.3
58.0
Average value of land
3 25.82
?718.88
3280.92
3 30.34
£709.01
3114.79
Percent
117 6
Average size of farm
Average value of
98 9
Average value of
farm
Average value of
farm buildings
40.8
Source: Rupert B. Vance in A Survey of the Catawba Valley, I (unpublished manuscript, Institute for Research in Social Science,
University of North Carolina, 1935); Census of Agriculture, 1930.
To what extent does the part-time farmer produce his living on the
farm? The average family consumed food worth $422.72, 56.5 percent of
which was furnished from the farm. Since food furnished was valued at
farm prices this figure underestimated the contribution of the farm. A
mark-up of some 20 percent, depending on grades would give a food
budget of $470.40 with over 60 percent furnished from the farm. Com-
puted on the basis of prevailing farm prices, the value of food consumed
amounted to seven cents per person per meal.
3 1 6 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Housing accounted for 11.4 percent of living expenses. The 1,167
families who owned their homes were assigned an annual rent based on 10
percent of the reported value of the dwelling. On this basis owners were
credited with an average annual rent of $82.08, ten percent of the value
of the house. Renters paid an average annual rent of $56.45. It was found
that 80 percent of rents were furnished by owned farm homes, constituting
9.2 percent of total expenses of all the families for housing.
Fuel, valued at $26.92 per family was furnished by the farm and made
up 2.5 percent of the cost of living. Other living expenses which included
clothing, furnishings purchased, medical, educational, and cultural needs
as well as the cost of operating automobiles amounted to $148.30 per fam-
ily, or 22.4 percent of expenses. These needs were purchased.
The income of the families living on this basis averaged $663.10. Of
this total, 46.7 percent was furnished from the farm. As pointed out pre-
viously, many of the farms were small, two-fifths being 9 acres or less in
size. On the small farm the cow, chickens, and garden plot furnished the
core of the part-time farmer's live-at-home program. Proceeds from the
sale of farm products amounted to only one-fifth of the total net farm
income.
While saving in food was the principal economy that farm residence
affords workers, cheap housing also proved an important factor. This ad-
vantage, however, is offset by the fact that farm houses were equipped
with fewer conveniences. While urban conveniences were largely lacking,
the type of house was no worse than those in surrounding rural neighbor-
hoods. Most of the part-time farmers studied owned the farmstead on
which they lived. Full owners made up three-fifths of the group to which
may be added the 14.2 percent who rented additional land. Owners, as
might be expected, had larger net farm incomes, averaging $293 as com-
pared with $205 for tenants. The prospects for improved standards among
part-time farmers rose with industrial revival and higher wages. Our
analysis shows that few part-time farmers depended on the sale of agri-
cultural products for much of their income. The gains of farm residence
thus consisted of lowered costs of food and shelter.
SUMMARY
The industrialization of rural areas such as the Southern Piedmont ap-
pears to be proceeding slowly. The question is often asked: What will it
mean to the Nation and the region? A study of the Catawba River Basin,
the first river valley to be electrified in the Southeast, suggests some possi-
bilities. Instead of being concentrated in great cities, much of the indus-
trial population of the Carolina Piedmont lives in small cities, towns, and
THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION 317
even in the open countryside. Less necessary in these days of municipal
and Federal housing projects, the paternalistic mill village with its com-
pany housing is a passing phenomenon. Agriculture has changed as the rise
of industries and cities opened new markets for food, fruit, dairy and truck
products. Along with this went the development of part-time farming.
Farmers came to supplement their incomes by working in nearby industries,
and industrial workers moved out to farm homes where they could keep a
cow, chickens, and a garden. Without developing any great cities, this area
increased its proportion of industry, gained in wealth and population, and
improved its type of agriculture. As workers gained more skill and as in-
vestments and the size of plants grew larger, efficiency and productivity
increased. With Federal standards and increased unionization it seems
likely that the wage level will approach more closely that of the Nation,
although it is possible that the resulting increased costs may slow down the
rate of industrialization.
Most people now realize that the South's population cannot continue to
work in agriculture to the extent it once did when 60 percent of our cotton
and much of our tobacco were sold abroad. Yet industrialization has both
its gains and losses ; and not all the changes have meant social advantages
With the country's agricultural needs already well supplied, the South's in-
sistent cry for a higher standard of living can be answered only by an ex-
panding industrial production in which its workers take part^This need
will be emphasized all the more when the emergency comes to an end and
the war program tapers off.
CHAPTER 21
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
It may be of some significance that both unemployment and the South
have been nominated as United States' "Economic Problem Number One."
In the current discussion of regional economics the problem of unemploy-
ment has not been directly related to the difficulties of the Southeast.
The present chapter therefore compares the changing pattern of unem-
ployment from 1930 through the depression to World War II in the Nation
and the region. The neglect to study unemployment apparently stands in
sharp contrast to the emphasis on population trends as a factor in the region's
economic conditions. It is reasonable to suppose, however, that in the
Southeast as in the Nation reciprocal relations may have existed between
population increases and increased unemployment. T. J. Woofter's calcula-
tion of replacements in the labor force cited in Chapter 10 furnished pre-
sumptive evidence that natural increase in the rural farm population aged
18 to 64 years would lead to greater unemployment unless we had an
expanding economy. Conversely, prolonged unemployment itself is likely
to have adverse effects on population increase. Presumably such effects
may be related to the fact that the whole population comes to be sup-
ported by a smaller proportion of the total group engaged as a work-
ing force. Moreover, changes in the age and sex ratios of both employed
and unemployed workers may be expected to affect population increases
and thus in turn affect population policy. In a large sense our policy
in relation to unemployment and reemployment might in time come to
be regarded as part of a national population policy.
In this connection it should be of value to trace the pattern of employ-
ment and population composition in the Southeast as they changed during
the depression. For this purpose we can compare the regular Census of
Unemployment taken in 1930, the Enumerative Check Census taken in
connection with the Special Census of Unemployment in 1937, and the
1940 Census.1
xThe Enumerative Check Census of the 1937 Special Unemployment Census applies age and sex dis-
tribution to the pattern of the employed, the unemployed, and those unavailable for gainful employment
[318]
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 319
THE EFFECTIVE LABOR FORCE AND THE NATURAL DEPENDENTS, I 93 7
The Special Census indicates that in 1937 the Nation and the region
presented a pattern of employment somewhat similar (Table 88). In both
areas out of every 10 men, approximately one was unable to work, and 9
were employable. Of these 9 only 6 or 7 could get jobs while 2 or 3 were
left unemployed or worked on W. P. A. and other projects. Of every 10
women, 7 remained at home while 3 sought jobs — 2 of whom were suc-
cessful. For the total population, 4 remained at home, 6 sought jobs, but
only 4 could find them. Regional-national differences were not important.
The Southeast with less total unemployment than the Nation, 10.4 to 11.8
percent, had a slightly higher proportion that was not seeking work, 42.8
to 41.5 percent. The region and the Nation had the same proportion listed
as fully employed, namely, 38.8 percent. Significant categories in this
analysis are based on the concept of availability for employment for gain
or profit. Those available constituted the labor force made up of Iwo
classes: the employed and the unemployed. The third class consists of
those unavailable for gainful employment. This economic classification
Table 88. Estimated Population 15 to 74 Years of Age by Functional
Class and by Sex With Percentage Distribution, United States and
Southeast, 1937 (in Thousands)
Functional class
Total Population (15-74). .
Employed or available for
employment
Total unemployed ',
Emergency workers
Partly unemployed
Part-time workers
Fully employed
Ill or voluntarily idle
Not available for employment.
United States
All
Num
ber
93,063
54,474
8,928
2,055
5,550
1,190
36,079
672
38,589
Per-
cent
100.0
58.5
9.6
2.2
6.0
1.3
38.8
0.7
41.5
Male
Nur
bei
46,704
39,978
5,761
1,657
4,058
688
27,399
415
6,726
Per-
cent
100.0
85.6
12.3
3.5
8.7
1.5
58.7
0.9
14.4
Female
Num-
ber
46,359
14,496
3,167
398
1,492
502
8,680
257
31,863
Per-
cent
100.0
31.3
6.8
0.9
3.2
1.1
18.7
0.6
68.7
Southeast
All
Num-
ber
19,145
10,948
1,622
370
1,126
266
7,422
142
8,197
Per-
cent
100.0
57.2
8.5
1.9
5.9
1.4
38.8
0.7
42.8
Male
Num-
ber
9,495
8,058
963
287
788
180
5,764
76
1,437
Per-
cent
100.0
84.9
10.2
3.0
8.3
1.9
60.7
0.8
15.1
Num-
ber
9,650
2,890
659
83
338
86
1,658
66
6,760
Per-
cent
100.0
30.0
6.8
0.9
3.5
0.9
17.2
0.7
70.0
™Tf ,lEmPlo>'ed, workers consist of several groups: the partly unemployed, part-time workers, "ill and voluntarily idle,"
Jim, „l\emPAY ; ,dlst'n«'on'n this classification is that the partly unemployed are looking for more work while part-
time workers do not need more work. Unemployed are the totally unemployed and the emergency workers (W.P.A., P.VV.A
riiVuW m,^£fVi; J0g<n ■ ,aSSCS ,make U-P ,th,e total labor force- Those not available for work comprise all outside
«^J;,, \Zi ' •* ,S' u n0t act've|y s.eek">g gainful employment. Among these are old persons, young persons pursuing
"J J"- "'"' 1' "■-•ewives whose unDaid services are r,-,nWH <,, th. knm. nr t^ t,»l„;„„ ;„ »!,.:- £.„ui,-jj businesses. Contrary
i among those unavail-
Source: United Slates Census of Partial Employment, Unemployment, and Occupations, 1937, I, Table 20; IV, Tables 6, 43, 54,
iuc iauur maiKet, mat is, an not actively seeking gainful employment. Among these are old persons, you
studies, and housewives whose unpaid services are confined to the home or to helping in their husbands' bu
to the practice of the 1930 Census, so called "unpaid family workers" were included by the 1937 Census a
among the adult population, aged 15-74. Reduction of these three censuses to a comparable basis makes
it possible to trace the developing pattern of employment among these three functional classes from April
I, 1930 to April 1, 1940. Since the Enumerative Check Census gives percentages in these functional
classes only by census divisions, we have recomputed them for the Southeast. See John D. Biggers,
Census of Partial Employment, Unemployment and Occupations, IV. Calvert L. Dedrick and Morris
H. Hansen, The Enumerative Check Census (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office,
J938).
320
ALL THESE PEOPLE
cannot rightly be understood apart from considerations of age and sex dis-
tribution which determine the natural dependents.2
The level of income attained in any region depends, among other
things, on the amount of employment available. In depression it is realized
that a larger fraction of the labor force is wasted, leaving a smaller part of
the population to support the whole group. Table 89 provides estimates
designed to show what proportion of the labor force was "wasted" in 1937.
Part-time employed and partly unemployed are computed at half-time
and the ill and voluntarily idle are counted with the unemployed. Emer-
gency workers although returned with the unemployed are not here re-
garded as "wasted" manpower. This procedure gives an estimate that be-
tween a fifth and a fourth (22.5 percent) of the region's labor force was
wasted in 1937. This is slightly less than the wastage in the Nation, 23.8
percent.
Table 89. Percent of Total Manpower Available for Employment by
Functional Class With Percent Wastage of Manpower, United States
and Southeast, 1937
United States
Southeast
Functional class
Percent manpower
Percent wastage
Percent manpower
Percent wastage
Total available for employment
100.0
16.4
3.8
10.2
2.2
66.2
1.2
23.8
16.4
's'.i
1.1
L2
100.0
14.8
3.4
10.3
2.4
67.8
1.3
22.5
14.8
1.2
i.i
Source: Sec Table 88.
We are also interested in determining what proportion of the group
"supports" the total population. This can be estimated by including in our
analysis (1) the natural dependents, those too young and too old to work,
and (2) those who are not seeking work, those unavailable for gainful em-
ployment. Table 90 shows that in the Southeast 31 percent of the total
population are under 15 or over 75 and thus largely dependent, 8.9 per-
cent are "wasted" manpower, and 29.5 percent are unavailable. Thus in
1937 the Southeast's population of 27,739,000 was supported by 8,488,000
equivalent full-time workers comprising only 30.6 percent of the popula-
tion. This is in contrast to the Nation where with 10 percent of their man-
power "wasted," 32 percent of the population supported the total group.
The difference is accounted for by the Nation's smaller proportion of nat-
ural dependents, 28.2 percent as compared with 31 percent for the
Southeast.
■ See chapters 4 and S where this topic is discussed in detail.
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 321
Table 90. Distribution of Population by Effective Manpower, United
States and Southeast, 1937 (Estimate in Thousands)
Population group
United States
Southeast
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
129,533*
41,504
88,029
12,970
38,589
36,470
100.0
32.0
68.0
10.0
29.8
28.2
27,739*
8,488
19,251
2,460
8,197
8,594
100.0
30.6
69.4
8.9
29. S
31.0
Workers (full time)
Dependent
Wasted
Not available:
Under 15 and over 75
•Corrected estimates of the United States Census Bureau for 1937, estimates for the United States as of November 1. for the
Southeast as of July 1.
fjuly
•uta
ed
Source: See Table
A similar computation for white females of the Southeast shows that 12.4 percent of white females are workine full time, while
87.6 percent are dependent.
Traditionally the problem of the support of the total population by the
working force has been met in the family. It was the family group which
supported the unemployed and those unavailable for employment along
with its natural dependents. Increasingly, economic insecurity has shifted
the burden of support of the unemployed and the aged from the private to
the public sphere. Once unemployment becomes affected with a public
interest, society comes to watch with concern its maturing youth who, simply
by growing up, may make the transition from natural dependents, a family
responsibility, to unemployed youth, a social responsibility. Important also
in this connection are the large numbers classified as unavailable for em-
ployment. Almost 7,000,000 men and 32,000,000 women, 41.5 percent
of the Nation's population 15-74, were in this category in 1937 (Table 88).
In the Southeast the unavailable amounted to 8,197,000 of which 6,760,000
were women. For any number of them to seek work and fail to find it adds
to our mounting figures of unemployed. In any society committed to the
relief of unemployment this indicates that, unless they find work, the prob-
lem of their support has shifted from the private to the public sphere.
primary and secondary unemployment, i 930- i 93 7
With these considerations in mind, we shall attempt to trace in the
Southeast the change in numbers of workers by the three functional classes,
the employed, the unemployed, and those unavailable for employment.
Any increase in unemployment from one period to another may be traced to
(1) increases in the population of employable ages, (2) lost jobs, or (3)
increased proportions of job seekers. Those who lose jobs may be regarded
as the primary unemployed, while the increased proportions entering the
labor market may be called the secondary unemployed.
In order to separate the population factor ( 1 ) from the social-economic
322
ALL THESE PEOPLE
factors (2 and 3) we have reduced the two censuses to a comparable basis
and computed the differences due only to population change for each func-
tional class. Thus to ascertain changes in the number of unemployed due
to change in age-sex group composition, we computed the 1930 age specific
unemployment rates for each five-year age group, male and female 15-74?
and applied these rates to the 1937 population distribution. The summa-
tion of these figures gives us the amount of unemployment we should ex-
pect with the 1930 employment pattern held constant.3
The results of this analysis for the three functional classes are shown
in Table 91 and Figure 192. The first two rows show the adjusted num-
Table 91. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Functional
Class, Southeast, 1930 and 1937 (All Numbers in Thousands)
hem
Total Population Aged 15-74
Total
population
aged 15-74
A. All
1. Number in 1937
2. Number in 1930
3. Exp. number in 1937*.
4. Total difference (1 — 2)
5. (a) Difference due to increase of
population (3 —2)
6. (b) Difference due to change of
social- economic conditions
(1 -3)
B. Male
1. Number in 1937
2. Number in 1930
3. Exp. number in 1937*
4. Total difference (1 — 2)
5. (a) Difference due to increase of
poulation (3 —2)
6. (b) Difference due to change in
social- economic conditions
(1 -3)
C. Female
1. Number in 1937
2. Number in 1930
3. Exp. number in 1937*.
4. Total difference (1 — 2)
5. (a) Difference due to increase of
population (3 — 2)
6. (b) Difference due to change in
social- economic conditions
(1 -3)
1 (equals 2+5)
Num-
ber
19,145
16,307
19,145
2,838
2,838
9,495
8,088
9,495
1,407
1,407
9,650
8,219
9,650
1,431
1,431
Per-
cent
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Employed or available for employment
Total
2 (equals 3+4)
Num- Per-
ber cent
100.0
100.0
10,944
8,493
10,017
2,451
1,524
927
8,077
6,662
7,884
1,415
1,222
193
2,867
1,831
2,133
1,036
302
734
57.2
52.1
85.1
82.4
Totally
unemployed
Num-
ber
29.7
22.3
253
296
1,735
43
1,692
1,269
196
230
1,073
34
1,039
719
57
66
662
9
653
Per-
cent
10.4
1.6
13.4
2.4
Employed
(fully or partly)
Num-
ber
7.5
0.7
8,956
8,240
9,721
716
1,481
-765
6,808
6,466
7,654
342
1,188
-846
2,148
1,774
2,067
374
293
Per-
cent
46.8
50.5
71.7
79.9
Unavailable
for
employment
Num- Per-
ber cent
22.2
21.6
8,201
7,814
9,128
387
1,314
-927
1,418
1,426
1,611
185
-193
6,783
6,388
7,517
395
1,129
-734
42.8
47.9
14.9
17.6
70.3
77.7
•Conditions as of 1930. . , , . , j • 1027
Note- Number of workers in 1937 and 1930 adjusted for comparable definitions; employed workers include those defined in 193/
as fully employed, partly unemployed, part-time workers, and ill or voluntar.lv idle; unemployed include totally unemployed
and emergency workers in 1937, and unemployed of class A in 1930. Due to the adjustments for comparable definitions there
is a difference between figures for 1937 given here and in Table 88.
Source- Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, V, Chap 4 Tables 15 and 16; Vol. IV, Tables 11 and 23. United
StaL. ) Census of Unemployment, 1937, I, Table 20; Vol. IV, Tables 43, 54-56, Table 49, p. 111. United States Census of Unem-
ployment, 1930, I, Table 18.
3 The method involves the same principle used in computing the standardized death rate
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
323
Figure 192. Difference in Number of Workers by Functional Classes
Due to Change in Population and Social Economic Conditions,
Southeast, 1930 to 1937
TOTAL DIFFERENCE
DIFFERENCE DUE TO
CHANGE IN POPULATION
DIFFERENCE DUE TO
CHANSE IN CONDITIONS
-4 0 4
Hundred Thousand Workers
Source: See Table 91.
ber of workers in 1930 and 1937. The actual difference between the two
sets of figures (third row) is due to the two factors: (1) change in number
and composition of the population and (2) change in social-economic con-
ditions. In order to separate the effects of these two factors we have com-
puted the total difference due to change in population. Thus (column 3)
the number of unemployed "expected" in 1937 was 296,000. Since the
total number of unemployed in the Southeast in 1930 was 253,000 (see
second horizontal line), the increase due only to change in population is
shown to be 43,000. The actual increase in unemployed persons, however,
was 1,735,000 — representing the combined effect of population and social-
economic changes. The net difference in unemployment which can be at-
tributed to change in social-economic conditions alone is this figure minus
the 43,000 population increase or 1,692,000.
On the other hand (see Figure 192) the total surplus of workers "avail-
able for employment" (category 2) of both sexes, or 2,451,000, was ere-
324
ALL THESE PEOPLE
ated both by the effect of changed population (1,524,000)" and changed
conditions (927,000). Analyzing this change in "total workers avail-
able" by sex we see that most of the increase in male job seekers was
due simply to increased population (1,222,000) while two-thirds of the
increase in female job seekers (1,036,000) is explained by changed condi-
tions (734,000) and one-third by population changes (302,000).
Table 91 and Figure 193 give an answer to the second question: How
much of the unemployment in 1937 was due to loss of jobs and how much
to an increase in the number of workers by various classes? Thus we see
that the net increase in unemployed males was 1,039,000 and that it was
mainly due to the loss of jobs which amounted to 846,000. The increase
of 653,000 in the number of unemployed women, however, was caused ex-
Figure 193. Difference Between Actual Number of Workers in 1937
and Number Expected According to the 1930 Pattern of Distri-
bution by Three Functional Classes, Southeast, by Sex
DECREASE .NCREASE
4 0 4
Hundred Thousand Workers
Source- See Table 91; also Rupert B. Vance and Nadia Danilevsky, "Population and the Pattern
of Unemployment in the Southeast," Southern Economic Journal, VIII (October, 1940), 187-203.
'Of this 2,451,000 increased population, it would appear that (category 4) 716,000 got jobs.
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
325
Table 92. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Functional
Class, United States, 1930 and 1937 (in Thousands)
Total Population Aged 15-74
Total
population
aged 15-17
Employed or available for employment
Item
Total
Totally
unemployed
Employed
(fully or partly)
Unavailable
for
employment
1 (equals 2+5)
2 (equals 3 +4)
3
4
5
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
A — All
Number in 1937
93,063
84,805
8,258
93,063
8,258
0
46,704
42,965
3,739
46,704
3,739
0
46,359
41,840
4,519
46,359
4,519
0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
54,503
46,821
7,682
50,872
4,051
3,631
40,115
36,615
3,500
39,717
3,102
398
14,388
10,206
4,182
11,155
949
3,233
58.6
55.2
85.9
85.2
31.0
24.4
11,012
2,426
8,586
2,641
215
8,371
7,555
2,057
5,498
2,241
184
5,314
3,457
369
3,088
400
31
3,057
11.9
2.9
16.2
4.8
7.4
0.9
43,491
44,395
- 904
48,231
3,836
-4,740
32,560
34,558
-1,998
37,476
2,918
-4,916
10,931
9,837
1,094
10,755
918
176
46.7
52.3
69.7
80.4
23.6
23.5
38,560
37,984
576
42,191
4,207
-3,631
6,589
6,350
239
6,987
637
- 398
31,971
31,634
337
35,204
3,570
-3,233
41.4
44.8
Number in 1930
Exp. number in 1937*
Surplus over 1930 due to
increase in pop. 15-74
B— Male
Number in 1937
14.1
14.8
Number in 1930
Actual difference
C — Female
Number in 1937
69.0
75.6
Number in 1930
Actual difference
Exp. number in 1937*
Surplus over 1930
•Conditions as of 1930.
Jfe1, ' Number of workers in 1937 and 1930 adjusted for differences in definitions; employed workers include those defined in
1937 as fully employed, partly employed, part-time workers, and ill or voluntarily idle; unemployed include totally unemployed
and emergency workers in 1937, and unemployed of class A in 1930, adjusted for comparable definitions; "expected" number
of workers in 1937 computed by adjusting 1930 workers for changes in population by age-groups and sex from April, 1930, to
iX°Xe er> 1937. Due to the adjustments for comparable definitions, there are certain discrepancies between the figures for
1937 and 1930.
Source: United States Census of Partial Employment, Unemployment, and Occupations, 1937, IV, Chap. VIII, Table 49, p. Ill;
?;, ,i2} Table 69, p- 134- Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, V, Chap. 6, Table 9; Unemployment Census,
1930, I, Tables 1 and 6.
clusively by the great increase in job seekers among women (734,000),
for the number of jobs for women actually increased by 81,000. Obviously
then the employment status of the total population reflected the combined
effects of both factors. Thus the increase of 1,692,000 unemployed in the
Southeast is explained by a loss of 765,000 jobs and by an increase of
927,000 job seekers — 734,000 of whom were women.
In the Nation (Table 92) an increase of 8,371,000 in the unemployed
was explained by a loss of 4,740,000 jobs and an increase of 3,631,000 job
seekers, 3,233,000 of whom were women. Evidently while the depression
served to increase reported unemployment it operated for each sex in an
entirely different fashion. Increased male unemployment sprang chiefly
from lost jobs 5 female unemployment from an increase in the proportion
326
ALL THESE PEOPLE
of job seekers. It is inaccurate, however, to deny that the increase of un-
employed women was due to the loss of jobs. It was due to the loss of jobs
by men — not by women. Loss of jobs by primary workers with its lower-
ing of the levels of family living sent streams of secondary workers, com-
posed largely of women, into the labor market. From our study of the
effective labor force, we should expect unemployment to have this dual
effect on our society. As unemployment decreases the size of the effective
labor force supporting the total population, additional numbers must em-
bark upon the search for work. Since most men are already employed or
seeking employment this task falls on women.
THE POPULATION PYRAMID AND THE PATTERN OF UNEMPLOYMENT
Secondary workers were also drawn from the region's reservoir of ma-
turing youth. The movement is made clear when the changing pattern of
employment is studied in connection with the population pyramid. From
1930 to 1937 the proportion of "available" workers increased most sharply
in the younger ages 15 to 30. Thus Table 93 indicates that in ages 15-19
the proportion of males working and seeking work increased from 34.5 to
48.7 percent; among females from 15.8 to 24.6 percent. After age 30 the
employment pattern of the sexes showed a decided differentiation. The
proportion of males in the labor market became stable at this age and
showed slight decline thereafter. Females, however, continued to flow into
the labor market until age 60. The effect of old age security measures may
be seen in the decline of workers available after 6$. For males 65-69 the
decline was from 82.4 to 75.3 percent. Regional trends followed national
trends in this respect.
Figure 194, which presents the population pyramid in terms of the
Table 93. Available Workers as Percentages of Total Population in
Each Age Group, United States and Southeast, 1930 and 1937*
Age
15-19.
20-24.
25 - 29.
30-34.
35-39.
40-44.
45 - 49.
50-54.
55-59.
60-64.
65 - 69.
70-74.
United States
Male
1930
37.2
85.4
95.7
97.0
97.4
97.4
97.0
95.6
92.8
86.6
75.4
57.1
1937
43.1
90.3
97.1
97.9
97.6
96.8
96.3
95.1
91.9
84.7
67.8
45.2
Female
1930
24.2
41.0
30.2
23.8
22.5
21.3
20.4
19.2
17.0
14.4
11.2
7.5
1937
30.2
53.6
42.1
34.4
31.1
28.0
25.0
22.5
18.8
15.5
10.5
5.6
Southeast
Male
1930
34.5
82.2
94.1
96.1
96.5
97.1
97.0
96.2
94.4
90.2
82.4
68.3
1937
48
96.6
96.7
96.4
95.8
95.6
94.4
92.0
85.9
75.3
48.6
Female
1930
15.8
29.3
26.1
23.3
23.8
22.9
22.5
21.3
18.5
17.6
14.3
10.1
1937
24.6
43.3
39.5
33.4
31.4
29.4
25.3
22.6
19.8
17.2
12.4
5.7
•Adjusted to a comparable definition. "Available workers" include both job-holders and job-seekers.
Source: See Tables 91 and 92.
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
327
Figure 194. The Percentage Employed, Unemployed and Unavailable
within Each 5-Year Age Group, 15-74, Southeast by Sex, 1937
male female
PERCENT OF
AGE GROUP
£j| EMPLOYED
Source: See sources for Tables 91-93.
65 IS 25
5 YEAR AGE GROUPS
UNEMPLOYED
□
NOT AVAILABLE
FOR EMPLOYMENT
three functional classes in the Southeast — 1937, indicates that the conflict-
ing claims of "unemployed" and "unavailable for employment" are espe-
cially apparent in the younger ages and among females. As women attain
the age of marriage and mature homemaking, their proportions in the labor
market declined. Only among women in the age group 20-24 were more
than two-fifths (43.3 percent) in the labor market. It is noted that by far
the sex's highest rate of unemployment (11.6 percent) was found among
women of younger ages, 15-24. Table 93 which also gives the pyramid
for the total United States indicates that the Nation had a larger propor-
tion of its women in the labor market than the Southeast.
regional-national comparisons
The 1937 Census makes it possible to compare rates of employment on
farms and in rural nonfarm and urban areas. It is generally realized that
the movement of families from the farm to the urban environment serves
to increase the proportions of those seeking gainful employment. The 1937
census technicality whereby unpaid family labor on the farm was classified
among those "unavailable for gainful employment" is partly responsible
for this condition. Such unpaid labor contributes to the store of goods and
services and, by increasing the family income, no doubt receives added pay-
ment in kind instead of in wages.
328 ALL THESE PEOPLE
The large proportion of the South's labor force engaged in agriculture
makes for significant regional-national differences here. In both the Na-
tion and the region the proportions in the labor market increase as we move
from rural farm to village (rural nonfarm) to urban areas. Roughly speak-
ing only half of the rural farm population age 15-74 had or sought jobs,
as compared with some $5 percent of rural nonfarm and over 60 percent
of urban population. Significantly enough when the Nation is compared
with the region it is found that the Southeast had a greater percentage of
full and partial unemployment on the farms, 15 percent as compared to
1 1.2 percent for the Nation} a smaller proportion of total unemployment
in rural nonfarm areas, 11.4 to 13 percent and an almost equal ratio in
cities, 12.4 to 12.6 percent. With due consideration of the difficulty in-
volved in the concept "unemployed farmer," the region's higher ratio of
farm unemployment indicated the difficulties facing agriculture in the
Southeast in 1937.
The pattern of racial employment showed important differences as be-
tween the Southeast and the Nation. In both areas more Negroes than
whites were forced to seek jobs and more were unemployed. In the Nation,
however, Negroes show a much higher rate of unemployment than in the
Southeast. For Negro males this difference amounted to 22.5 percent un-
employed in the Nation as compared with only 14.1 percent in the South-
east; for females the ratio was 16.1 to 10.2 percent unemployed in favor
of the region. Comparably Negroes in the Nation furnished a higher ratio
of emergency workers, 5.8 percent for males in the Nation as compared
with 2.7 percent in the region.
Unemployment was undoubtedly a serious problem in the region, but it
is possible to conclude from this study that the position of the Southeast as
"Economic Problem Number One" did not arise from greater unemploy-
ment than that existing in the Nation. Throughout the depression period
under study unemployment was lower in the Southeast, a fact which held
true for Negroes as well as whites. On the surface it would seem that less
manpower was "wasted" in the Southeast, but that the total population
was supported by a smaller proportion gainfully employed as a working
force. The load of dependents was 2.7 per worker in the Southeast as com-
pared with 2.3 in the Nation. This is in accordance with both the region's
greater proportion of children and its smaller proportion "available" for
gainful employment. When analyzed this last trend can be traced to the
large group of rural farm women and youth who serve as "unpaid family
workers on the home farm."
The situation would indicate that compared with the Nation the South
suffers from low productivity and accompanying low wages rather than
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 329
from greater unemployment. Actually the South's devotion to a low level
agriculture must serve to give the region a greater amount of concealed
unemployment. This low level may account for the larger proportions
who become job seekers as soon as the breadwinner of the family loses
work. Thus from 1930 to 1937, allowing for population growth, the loss
of 100 jobs gave the Nation 176 unemployed, but for the region it meant
221 unemployed. In one economic sector, moreover, the Southeast failed to
hold its favorable employment ratio. By 1937 the emerging agricultural
problem had served to give the region a higher rate of farm unemployment
than was found in the Nation. This conclusion fits in with other studies
which show that undoubtedly the problem of unemployed rural youth and
of displaced tenants has attained serious proportions in the region.
The prewar picture of unemployment in the Southeast in 1937 (10.4
percent) made the return of 1930 conditions (with only 1.6 percent unem-
ployment) seem a desirable goal. To reproduce the 1 930 employment pat-
tern in the Southeast with allowance for increase in the population would
have required drastic changes. Our figures show that we would first have
to induce 927,000 persons to relinquish jobs or the search for jobs and re-
turn to the ranks of those unavailable for employment. Then we would
have to provide 846,000 new jobs for men and take away 81,000 jobs from
women workers. Such an arbitrary shifting of workers could scarcely be
expected to function in a democratic country. Another way, accordingly,
would be to accept the increase in the number of those available for employ-
ment, that is, this new group of 927,000 seeking or holding jobs. Here in
order to return to the low ratio of unemployment in 1930, we would have
to provide 653,000 additional jobs for women and 1,039,000 jobs for men.
FULL EMPLOYMENT, 1 940 AND AFTER
The solution for unemployment when it arrived in World War II was
the provision of even more jobs in a war economy that drew additional
women and youth out of the ranks of the unavailables. A major criticism
of the 1937 Census was that many unavailables, women and youths, claimed
to be seeking jobs when they really were not in the labor force. This it
was felt added a fictitious bias to the reported unemployment. The 1940
Census figures showed a decrease in unemployment and an increase in the
proportion of those who were not seeking employment (Table 94). Thus
national unemployment declined in the period 193 7- 1940 from 16.2 to
1 1.3 percent for males and from 7.4 to 2.9 percent for females. At the same
time males not seeking gainful employment increased from 14 to 20
percent, females from 69 to 74 percent. Similar trends were shown in the
Southeast where reported unemployment was reduced to even lower levels
330 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 94. Comparison of Number of Workers by Sex and Employment
Status, United States and Southeast, 1930, 1937, and 1940
Area, sex,
Total population
(15-74)
In labor force
Unemployed
Employed
Unavailable
and year
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
United States
All
1930
{thousands)
84,805
93 ,063
95,947
42,965
46,704
48,164
41,840
46,359
47,783
16,307
18,724
19,198
8,088
9,287
9,491
8,219
9,437
9,707
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
{thousands^
46,821
54,503
50,839
36,615
40,115
38,524
10,206
14,388
12,315
8,493
10,708
9,848
6,662
7,904
7,509
1,831
2,804
2,339
55.2
58.6
53.0
85.2
85.9
80.0
24.4
31.0
25.8
52.1
57.2
51.3
82.4
85.1
79.1
22.3
29.7
24.1
{thousands)
2,426
11,012
6,856
2,057
7,555
5,454
369
3,457
1,402
253
1,945
1,111
196
1,245
845
57
700
266
2.9
11.9
7.1
4.8
16.2
11.3
0.9
7.4
2.9
1.6
10.4
5.8
2.4
13.4
8.9
0.7
7.4
2.7
{thousands)
44,395
43,491
43,983
34,558
32,560
33,070
9,837
10,931
10,913
8,240
8,763
8,737
6,466
6,659
6,664
1,774
2,104
2,073
52.3
46.7
45.8
80.4
69.7
68.7
23.5
23.6
22.8
50.5
46.8
45.5
79.9
71.7
70.2
21.6
22.3
21.4
{thousands)
37,984
38,560
45,108
6,350
6,589
9,640
31,634
31,971
35,468
7,814
8,016
9,350
1,426
1,383
1,982
6,388
6,633
7,368
44.8
41.4
47.0
14.8
14.1
20.0
75.6
69.0
74.2
47.9
42.8
48.7
17 6
1937
1940
Male
1930
1937
1940
Female
1930
1937
1940
Southeast
All
1930
1937
1940
Male
1930
1937
14.9
20.9
77.7
70.3
75.9
1940
Female
1930
1937
1940
Note: The following adjustments were necessary for comparable definition: in 1930, unpaid family workers were subtracted
from all "gainful workers," and from employed workers and added to the "unavailable ; in 1937, "new workers" were sub-
tracted from all workers "available for work" and from unemployed and added to the "unavailable"; also a small correction
was necessary to include in the "labor force" persons available for work but not actively seeking jobs; in 1940, unpaid family
workers were subtracted from employed, "new workers" subtracted from unemployed, and both categories subtracted from
persons in labor force and added to those "unavailable"; all groups in labor force in 1940 include 14-year old children (excluding
unpaid family workers) and persons over 75 years of age who are in the labor force. These two groups could not be subtracted
from the total labor force because of lack of data at present; their numbers, however, should be negligible.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Preliminary Release, P-5, No. 9; Fifteenth Census of the United StaUs, 1930,
Population, V, Chap. 4, Tables 15-16; Vol. IV, Tables 11 and 23; Vol. V, Chap. 6, Table 9; United States Census of Partial Em-
ployment, Unemployment, and Occupations, 1937, I, Table 20; Vol. IV, Tables 43, 54-56; Vol. IV, Chap. VIII, Table 49, pp. 111-
112; Table 69, p. 134; Unemployment Census, 1930, I, Tables 1, 6.
and the proportion of unavailables was similarly increased. In short the
1940 figures, except for those still unemployed, suggested a return to
conditions of 1930.
This trend is to be explained in several ways. Greater numbers of
youth were in school, 68 percent of those aged 16 and 17 as compared with
57.3 percent in 1930. Increased college enrollments indicated that this was
true for all ages up to 20. Greater numbers of the aged were drawing old
age insurance and assistance in 1940 and thus were unavailable. With re-
turning prosperity, housewives had left the labor force and returned to
domestic duties. This analysis suggests the source of the additional labor
force needed in the war effort. Misleading answers, which in 1937 in-
creased reported unemployment, served in the emergency of war to indi-
cate the sex and age groups from which we drew additional workers,
married women without children and older youth.
First, however, should come the unemployed. The greatest amount of
unutilized labor power in 1940 was found in the Northeast where 3 mil-
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT
33i
lion were reported unemployed (Table 95). Secondary concentrations of
unemployed were reported from the Middle States and the Southeast with
2^4 and 1.4 millions respectively. The greatest proportions of unemploy-
ment were found in the Northeast and the Northwest where 17.7 and 17.3
percent of the total labor force were without work during the week before
the census. The Southeast had the smallest proportion, 13.5 percent. By
States unemployment ranged from 11.1 percent in Maryland to 23.9 per-
cent in New Mexico (Figure 195). Agricultural States and the Southeast
showed the smallest proportions of unemployment, Western Plains States
and the Northeast the largest proportions. This figure suggests that war
employment involved the problem of migration of manpower from certain
stagnant economic areas to more active areas.
Table 95. Number Unemployed as Percentage of All Gainful Workers
14 Years and Older, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Area
Gainful
workers
Un-
employed
Unemployed
as percent of
gainful
workers
Area
Gainful
workers
•Un-
employed
Unemployed
as percent of
gainful
workers
United States
52,789,499
16,936,501
10,567,628
3,617,661
8,471,788
3,003,335
1,427,569
607,040
16.0
17.7
13.5
16.8
Middle States
14,391,736
2,765,651
4,166,289
344,033
2,259,194
479,024
653,509
42,117
15.7
17.3
Far West..
15.7
Dist. of Columbia . .
12.2
Note: Unemployed are those seeking work (both new and experienced workers) and emergency workers on the pay rolls of
Federal agencies.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-10, No. 9, Tables 1,6...
Table 96, which includes only those with work experience, will give an
idea of the type and skills of unutilized labor reported in 1940. The larg-
est proportions unemployed were unskilled laborers, 31.3 percent, but the
largest single group in the Nation consisted of over 1^4 million semi-
skilled workers, 14.1 percent of the Nation's total. In the Southeast, un-
skilled laborers made up the largest single group, over 300,000 unem-
ployed. Skilled workers showed over 15 percent unemployment. The
table also serves to show the difficulty involved in using the concept of
unemployment in relation to farmers, unpaid family labor, and even pro-
prietors and managers.
Next in our search for a war-time labor force came those classified as
not available for employment. As the demands of expanding war economy
were met, more unavailables were transferred to the labor force than ever
before. World War II thus surpassed its predecessor in putting women
into industry. In the aftermath, however, we bid fair to return to the con-
ditions depicted in 1937 when unemployment due to lost job was aug-
mented by increases due to transfer of the unavailables to the category of
job seekers. To avoid a return to such a condition would require perfect
332
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 195. Percentage of Total Labor Force Unemployed,
United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-10, No. 9, Tables I, 6.
Table 96. Number of Unemployed 14 Years Old and Over With^Per-
centage Unemployed* of All Gainful Workers by Social-Economic
Classes, United States and Southeast, 1940
United States
Southeast
Social-economic classes
Number
unemployed
Percent of all
gainful workers
Number
unemployed
Percent of all
gainful workers
ALL
6,856,075
650,680
62,872
587,808
552,616
35,192
6,205,395
223,366
147,140
923,589
1,035,209
1,796,050
2,080,041
380,237
1,699,804
13.2
7.3
1.2
15.9
22.2
t; 2.9
14.4
6.2
3.7
10.8
16.2
14.1
26.1
15.1
31.3
1,110, 654
166,053
22,810
143,243
128,999
14,244
944,601
22,691
18,145
96,603
130,905
251,705
424,552
112,086
312,466
10.6
4.8
1.1
9.7
15.3
2.2
13.5
4.4
3.1
9.3
15.2
12.4
21.7
14.2
26.7
'Includes only those with work experience.
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population Preliminary Release, Series P-ll.
synchronization of demobilized soldiers and sailors fitting into jobs left by
demobilized women workers returning to the home. In this connection we
may summarize the bearing of our analysis on long-run issues likely to
develop in the postwar period.
POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 333
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
The preceding analysis has shown the tendency of mounting loss of
jobs in depression to increase disproportionately the numbers accounted as
unemployed. When primary workers, the family breadwinners, are dis-
placed, secondary workers composed largely of women and youth enter
the labor market in search of employment. Thus if the numbers displaced
from jobs be counted as unity, the resulting increase in the number of un-
employed will be a figure much greater than unity.
Our Table 91, Figure 192, show that a loss of 765,000 jobs in 1937
due to a change in social-economic conditions was accompanied by an in-
crease of 1,692,000 among the unemployed of both sexes. This is equiva-
lent to the statement that when a hundred jobs are lost in the population
of the Southeast, 1930-1937, we may expect to find thereby not 100 but
221 unemployed. The same comparison for the United States gave a much
smaller ratio. Here every 100 jobs lost meant 176 unemployed.
To some these figures may suggest that unemployment will always de-
cline at an accelerating ratio whenever employment again picks up As
employment mounts, so the theory runs, the number seeking employment
will decline at a greater than one to one ratio. This will be true if (1) pri-
mary workers are reemployed; and (2) if the body of secondary workers
composed largely, of women, relinquish jobs or the search for jobs as pri-
mary workers are reemployed. To test this hypothesis it might be sug-
gested that national policy in the next depression should be first directed
to the reemployment of the 100 males who lose jobs. By the time this is
done, it may be predicted that most of the 176 unemployed recently added
to the labor market will be retired. After the war such a policy would be
devoted to reemploying demobilized soldiers on the assumption that a high
ratio of employed women would then become unavailable for the labor
market.
Such a view, some sociologists may point out, discounts the effect of
changes of habits and attitudes on women wage earners. The effect of de-
clining births and increasing life expectancy has been to enlarge the labor
market at both ends of the life span. Women as a result of experiencing
both depression and war employment may no longer feel called upon to
choose between jobs and marriage, but they may increasingly come to pre-
fer pay envelopes to the child care that once went with marriage Con-
fronted with these imponderables we might find that reemployment of
primary workers will not decrease so-called secondary unemployment as
fast as the loss of jobs increased it during the depression. This leaves us
with the disquieting thought that the numbers in the labor market are
bound to increase, giving us a large reservoir of secondary unemployment
334 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Some believe that this phenomenon, characteristic of the shift to urban en-
vironment, is increased by every emergency that calls women into the
labor market. . . .
These considerations impinge on public policy in the debatable question
of rationing jobs by primary and secondary workers per family. Already
applied to work relief during the depression, to public employment in some
States, and occasionally to private employment, this is a policy which tra-
ditional American individualism has hitherto largely avoided. It would be
very repugnant to our traditional views, for example, to provide in the law
that joint employment of husband and wife should not be encouraged as
long as families existed in which both husband and wife were unemployed
and seeking work. Certainly in regard to qualifications for jobs this policy
would run into the greatest difficulties.
Some may be inclined to point out that attitudes developed in an ex-
panding economy when more of our population was rural can hardly be
maintained in an economy where most of the population is urban. Here it
may be claimed that the persistence of individualistic attitudes will make
necessary more collective action, that is, public relief. Others may contend
that an equitable application in private industry of the distinction between
primary and secondary unemployed would the more quickly reduce unem-
ployment and thus the need for public relief. There are those, no doubt,
who would claim that such a policy should make for a more even distribu-
tion of incomes and might stimulate rising marriage and birth rates.
It should be realized by all that the effect of large-scale postwar un-
employment would make the struggle for jobs as much of a social and
political issue as the question of relief itself. At this point, however we
are easily reminded that to make rabbit pie, one first catches the rabbit,
jobs for the postwar unemployed are not yet in sight. If apart from war,
there should become apparent in our technology a longtime trend away
from jobs in heavy industry for males to service jobs for women, reem-
ployment of primary workers will become a hopeless issue, giving way to
jobs for the secondary unemployed. As the skills of many primary unem-
ployed become obsolescent, another question would arise. Under such con-
ditions is it likely that men will follow the pattern set by women workers
and gradually become "unavailable for gainful employment"? Certainly
the depressing effect of such trends on marriage and the birth rates would
again be of the greatest importance to population policy.
PART IV
CULTURAL ADEQUACY OF THE PEOPLE
CHAPTER 22
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE
High among the traits determining the cultural adequacy of any people
must be listed their vitality. This remains true in spite of the fact that we
are not quite agreed on the meaning to be attributed to the term, vitality
In popular speech it suggests persistence of the spark of life— an inherent
tendency to live and survive in the face of all the ills that life is heir to
It is well recognized that the force of an inherent vitality can be measured
only in terms of performance in an actual environment. It is this perform-
ance in terms of the environment that we call health. The spark of life
grows by the fuel it feeds upon. Every favorable contribution of the en-
vironment strengthens, just as every unfavorable incidence weakens the
inherent vitality of a people. The years man lives, as Edgar Sydenstricker
pointed out, are determined not only by his innate capacity to survive but
by the influences of this complex environment.
The battle for life and survival accordingly can best be thought of in
terms of an offense and a defense. If the harmful elements of environment
comprise the offense, the inherent force of vitality musters the defense
bolstered at every point by the forces of medical care and technique which
must be regarded as part of our complex social environment. Under ideal
environmental conditions the battle would be decided only when the force
of inherent vitality crumbles at the end of the life span. We can measure
the outcome of this conflict only in terms of performance, as in death rates
morbidity rates, and length of life. In the record of performance, biology
and environment are so intermingled that no separate accounting is under-
taken, or in fact seems possible.
c ?U[ tff^fnt of tfhe vita% of the southern people is also a discussion
of the healthfulness of the southern environment. Health hazards peculiar
to the South are related to the geography of disease as affected by climate
and rainfall. Undoubtedly the physiological strain of the low coaling
power-of the regions of warm humid summers does affect health but it is
[335]
_.
33 6 ALL THESE PEOPLE
impossible to show any differentials in the death rates on this score. More
apparent is the effect of the climate on the growth of insect and parasite
life that gives the area a higher incidence of malaria, hookworm, etc.
Contrary to popular belief, however, when allowances are made for age
and race distribution, the death rates in the Southeast are no higher than
those in the Nation.
Of equal importance is the question of the adequacy of medical services,
public and private. Analysis of the health problems of a people is thus seen
as one of the most difficult as well as one of the most important of our tasks.
It is complicated by varying factors of race composition, of income level,
of the regional distribution of a population, and its age and sex composition,
each factor having its ultimate bearing on health and vitality.
In the United States to a large extent we have been compelled to ren-
der our judgments on the state of the people's health not from the figures
of illness but from figures on death. This can be done only by relating rates
of death to at least two conditions: (i) the age and sex make-up of the peo-
ple and (2) the cause of death. Thus death, which can be regarded as a
biologically normal phenomenon at the end of the life span, must in the
absence of morbidity statistics be related to the age curve of the population
if it is to be accepted as a valuable index. Implicit in this procedure is the
idea of the average incidence of death on a standard population under a
given environmental complex. Over a period of time the changing inci-
dence of death on a population gives a measure of the improvement in
health conditions attendant upon improvement in environment and prog-
ress in medical knowledge and practice. To relate this to cause of death
and thus to type of illness we need to determine standard ratios of the in-
cidence and length of morbidity to death from each cause. Such figures if
obtained, however, would last but a few years before the progress of medi-
cal services rendered them obsolete. Surgeon General Thomas Parran well
stated the situation when he said that the sickness and death rates of pre-
vious years are inadequate yardsticks for the present and are useless as
goals for the future. To think otherwise is to regard medical science and
public health as static rather than dynamic forces.
REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN CAUSE OF DEATH
In a country as large as ours notable variations in mortality and mor-
bidity are to be expected from section to section. Variations equally large,
it is known, can be found among groups in the same locality. State differ-
ences in mortality in 1 929-1 931 showed important ranges. Standardized
death rates for the white population varied from 7.6 in South Dakota to
15.6 in New Mexico. Both highest and lowest rates were found in the West-
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE
Figure 196. The Standardized Death Rates* from All Causes,
White Population, United States, 1 929-1 931
337
• Note: Death rates are standardized on the basis of the standard million of England and Wales, iqio.
Source: Lou.s I. Dublin and Alfred J. Lotka, The Length of Life (New York: Ronald Press, 1936).
ern States. With few exceptions the whole Atlantic seaboard showed rates
slightly above the average, 10 to 10.9 per 1,000 population (Figure 196).
Translated into terms of the length of life, these differences would in-
dicate that the average inhabitants of the best State may expect to live 15
years longer than the inhabitants of the worst State. If we can accept this
difference as indicative of the state of public health, we might say that the
worst States now lag 35 years behind the achievements of the best States in
this respect. In Massachusetts it required some 35 years to accomplish a
gain of 15 years in total life expectancy.
Regional differences in life expectancy are accompanied by regional
variations in cause of death. The total incidence of ten principal diseases
and conditions account for some three-fourths of all the deaths in the
United States. Table 97 shows that within the last 40 years tuberculosis
and pneumonia have given way to degenerative diseases as the leading
causes of death. Fluctuating slightly from year to year, they are uniformly
led by heart diseases which now account for almost one-fourth of the Na-
tion's deaths. Its toll is almost twice that of cancer, the second most fatal
disease. Next in the Nation come nephritis, cerebral hemorrhage, acci-
dental violence, and pneumonia which ranked almost equally until the
33 8 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 97. Death Rates per 100,000 Population in Registration
Area by Leading Causes, 1900- 1940
Cause
1900
1910
1920
1930
1938
1939
1940
132.1
63.0
89.0
71.5
79.0
180.5
91.8
181.7
9.7
22.9
158.8
76.2
99.1
75.7
84.4
147.8
88.1
136.0
14.9
14.4
159.1
83.2
89.2
81.7
71.3
137.0
84.7
97.0
16.0
70.9
205.9
97.4
90.9
81.1 .
80.8
83.4
61.1
63.5
19.0
19.5
217.8
115.1
77.5
76.5
72.4
67.8
48.7
44.7
23.9
12.7
213.7
117.5
82.8
78.0
71.0
59.3
48.5
43.2
25.5
16.4
221.2
Cancer and other malignant tumors
120.3
81.5
80.5
73.6
55.0
Cerebral hemorrhage and softening**
Congenital malformations and diseases
49.2
42.2
26.6
15.3
'Excludes diseases of coronary arteries. . .
"Excludes cerebral embolism and thrombosis and paralysis of unspecified origin.
***Of the respiratory system only.
Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Table 91; Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics— Special Reports, 15, No.
6 (December 8, 1940).
Next in order come "con-
infancy" and tuberculosis.
discovery of chemico-therapy for pneumonia.
genital malformation and diseases of early
Especially significant is the former in its position as a leading cause of
death since practically all fatalities under this heading occur during the
first month of life. Diabetes and influenza usually complete the list of
the leading ten (Table 97).
In all regions heart diseases rank as chief of the agents of death, but in
1940 it showed variations from 18.6 percent of deaths in the Southwest
to 32.3 percent in the Northeast (Figure 197). The high rank of cancer
seems due to its great prevalence in the Northeast, Middle States, and Far
West (Table 98). As the rates indicate, in the Southeast cancer ranks
fourth for whites and eighth for Negroes (Table 99). The death rate
from cancer in the Carolinas is one-third that in Massachusetts (Figure
198). Inadequate diagnosis may be a factor. It is strange that pneumonia,
as a cause of death ranks highest not in the colder northern States but in
the southern and western areas. Poorer housing and less adequate heating
undoubtedly offset the effects of the milder climate. In Colorado, Utah,
Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, pneu-
monia, until recently, has ranked second only to heart diseases as cause
of death. Less important as a cause of death, influenza tends to follow the
same pattern.
Nephritis takes its highest rank among the Southeastern States where
it ranks as a second cause of death among whites and third among Negroes
(Figure 199). In both the Rocky Mountain areas and the grain growing
States of the plains it seldom rises above fifth place. Accidental violence,
chiefly auto fatalities, one would expect to find most prominent in the
crowded urban East. Actually they are most important in the West and
Far West where they seldom fall below third or fourth place. In the
339
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE
Figure 197. Percentage of Deaths, by Ten Major Causes,
United States and Six Regions, 1938
Pneumcnio (io7-io9) T .
Cerebral hemorrhaged) \ ».. „' . /Tuberculosis (23-32)
Nephritis \ infancy / /Motor-vehicle accidents (206,208,210,211)
(130,-1321 I (,57-161)
— i.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Vol. 14; State Summaries, Vol 16;
Mortality Summaries by Specific Cause of Death.
Table 98. Death Rates per 100,000 Population from Important Causes
of Death, United States and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Cause of death
United
States
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle
States
Northwest
Far West
Heart diseases (90-95)
292.5
120.3
90.9
81.5
55.0
49.2
45.9
26.6
26.2
15.3
362.1
146.5
87.7
81.5
51.6
43.9
44.2
36.4
20.3
6.8
202.5
72.4
91.3
94.1
64.1
59.3
56.0
14.7
25.9
29.4
179.4
79.1
71.3
63.4
59.3
59.2
63.1
13.9
27.6
25.5
310.6
134.3
99.4
80.5
53.2
45.4
37.2
29.5
28.5
12.2
246.3
111.7
88.1
69.2
46.6
51.6
27.5
23.0
27.0
15.0
346 9
Cancer and other malignant tumors
'44-55)
144.8
93 8
Cerebral hemorrhage, etc. (83)
Nephritis (130-132)
74 2
Pneumonia f 107-109)
48 8
Congenital malformations and diseases
of early infancy '157-161)
41 7
Tuberculosis (13-22)
50 5
Diabetes (61)
25.1
40 8
Motor vehicle accidents (170). . .
Influenza (33)
11.2
Note: Deaths registered by place of occurrence and related to enumerated population April 1, 1940.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics— Special Reports, 15, No. 7; Vol. 16, No. 30.
Southeast this cause is fifth for white and sixth for colored. The South,
however, has fewer motor cars, one to 6 inhabitants as compared with 2.6
in the Far West. When the fatalities are related to vehicle miles six South-
eastern States rank among those having highest mortality.
In the Southwest, cerebral hemorrhage falls below its usual rank, sink-
ing to seventh place in Arizona and ninth in New Mexico. Tuberculosis
rises above its rank mainly for resort States like Arizona and New Mexico,
340
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 198. Deaths from Cancer and Other Malignant Tumors
per 100,000 Population, United States, 1940
Source: See Sources for Tables 98-100.
although for unknown reasons it appears especially high in Tennessee, Ne-
vada, and Kentucky (Figure 200 ). Among Negroes in all areas it has
dropped from the highest causes of death to third place. Figures 201 and
202 suggest that certain focal areas of infection exist in the Southeast for
both races. Diabetes appears among the ten leading causes of death only
in the prosperous States of the Northeast, Middle States, and Far West.
In the Southeast it is less prominent and among Negroes it falls to fif-
teenth place. Suicide (Figure 203) ranks among the first ten in the far
Western States like Nevada, Washington, and California while homicide
(Figure 204) is important enough to be found among the first ten in sev-
eral Southeastern States. Among Negroes suicide is one of the least im-
portant, homicide one of the more important causes of death. In the South-
west, diarrhea and enteritis among children under two have been important
enough to reach the first ten causes of death; in the Southeast they stand
eleventh. In the Southeast, syphilis has been included among the first ten
causes. For the colored population of the Southeast, syphilis ranks ninth;
for the whites it is sixteenth. Malaria, once prominent in the Southeast,
has receded to twenty-third place (Table 99).
Many reasons can be assigned for these regional differences in deaths
by cause. Age differences, racial make-up of the population, the occupa-
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE
34i
Figure 199. Deaths from Important Causes with Rates per 100,000
Population by Race, Southeast, 1930
Diseases of the heort
Chronic nephritis
Cerebrol hemorrhage
Congenital malformations
and diseases of early
infancy
Cancer and other
malignant tumors
Tubeculosis.ol! forms
Lobor pneumonia
Oiarrhea and enteritis
■■■■-'■ WHITE
|?»XI COLORED
!S3SS^
120
RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 1930, State Summaries, Mortality by
Specific Cause of Death.
tional distribution with its varying hazards, climate, varying social and eco-
nomic conditions resulting in different levels of living all meet differences
in the quality and availability of health and medical services both public
and private. This last factor may show in faulty diagnosis of the primary
cause of death especially among the poorer income groups.
In the main it can be said that the degenerative diseases of age have
higher rates in the regions with higher levels of living and show an in-
crease from 1930 to 1940 (Table ioo). This is true in both the Nation
and the region for heart disease, malignant tumors, cerebral hemorrhage,
etc. Preventable diseases of youth and middle age, like tuberculosis, influ-
enza, and diseases of infancy are highest in regions of low living standards.
THSy show a marked iJecTine in death rates from 1930 to 1940. Both of
these changes are in line with changes in age composition but the decline in
deaths from the preventable diseases has represented additional important
gains in medicine, hygiene, and sanitation. However, the Southeast still has
too many deaths from tuberculosis and diseases of early infancy. Similarly
the excess death rates from degenerative diseases in the Far West and
342 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 200. Deaths from Tuberculosis (All Forms) per 100,000
Population, United States, 1940
Source: See Sources for Tables 98-100.
Average Annual Death Rates from Tuberculosis per 100,000 Persons
in Counties of Thirteen States, 1929- 1933
Figure 201. White Deaths Figure 202. Colored Deaths
rf^^^^g^^
t^fc^&iiif
^^^
wk
Slpl
Hy^'Mtfws
jP98BhBF^
jBSj6j3B&LJ£^t^
<^*s
ll£fei/
wCil^Sli
^Cf.j ■ iiv«w<$J8Rra^ jfe*?"
fi^r/^
I nr &r«
^i^^™' inw^l
lifif
U'Slfltak
fifiailiv
x^S
&">iv (~1UW0W W
Q»*»
is, A
H-OOM
g«o loo
Q IOO A«1> OVt 1
Source; Lumsden and Dower, Some Features of Tuberculosis Mortality in the United States, V. S.
Public Health Service.
Northeast are in line with the more mature age composition of these areas.
There is, however, one preventable cause of death which does not fol-
low the general regional pattern — deaths from motor vehicle accidents.
The Far West, a region with a mature age composition and high standards
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE
343
Table 99. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Incidence Among
White and Negro Population, United States, Southeast,
and Southwest, 1940
Total population
Wh
te population
Negro population
Cause of death
U.S.
Rank
S.E.
Rank
S.W.
Rank
U.S.
Rank
S.E.
Rank
S.W.
Rank
U.S.
Rank
S.E.
Rank
S.W.
Rank
1
2
3
4
S
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1
4
3
2
5
6
7
8
13
9
10
16
11
17
18
22
14
20
15
12
19
25
28
27
24
21
26
23
1
2
4
5
3
8
7
6
13
10
12
14
9
15
20
21
11
22
17
18
16
25
27
28
19
23
24
26
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
12
10
14
13
16
15
18
17
19
21
20
22
23
24
2S
26
27
28
1
4
2
3
5
7
6
8
10
9
16
12
11
14
17
20
13
21
15
19
18
24
28
26
23
22
27
25
1
2
4
6
3
8
5
7
12
10
15
13
9
14
19
20
11
21
18
22
16
24
27
28
17
23
25
26
1
6
4
2
7
5
8
3
13
11
9
24
12
17
16
22
15
20
14
10
18
27
28
26
23
19
25
21
1
8
3
2
6
5
7
4
15
10
9
25
12
18
16
23
13
21
14
11
17
26
28
27
22
19
24
20
1
Cancer and other malignant tumors. .
Cerebral hemorrhage, thrombosis,
7
3
2
Accidents and other undefined
6
s
Congenital malformations and
8
4
Diabetes mellitus .
15
10
9
25
13
16
Hernia and intestinal obstruction. . . .
Cirrhosis of the liver
18
24
Senility
12
Ulcer of stomach or duodenum
23
14
11
Communicable diseases of childhood .
19
26
Exophthalmic goiter
27
\ Alcoholism
28
Dysentary
20
Pellagra
17
Typhoid and paratyphoid
21
22
Note: Diseases of the blood vessels — arteriosclerosis, etc. — omitted because figures by race and regions not available. In the
United States such diseases actually rank tenth and are more prevalent than influenza.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics—Special Reports, 14 (1940), State Summaries; Vol. 15, Nos. 6, 21; Vol. 16, mor-
tality summaries by specific causes of death.
Table ioo. Death Rates per 100,000 Population for Selected Causes
of Death, United States and Southeast, 1930 and 1940
United
States
Southeast
Cause of death
1930
1940
1930
1940
Heart diseases (90-95)
213.6
97.3
71.5
61.0
26.7
19.5
292.5
120.3
45.9
49.2
26.2
15.3
158.4
57.3
86.6
65.1
21.2
32.1
202 5
Cancer and other malignant tumors (45-53)
72 4
Tuberculosis (all forms) (23-32)
56 0
Congenital malformations and diseases of early infancy (157-161) . . .
Motor vehicle accidents '206, 208, 210, 211)
59.3
25 9
Influenza (11)
29 4
Note: Numbers beside causes of death are those of the 1929 International List of causes of death.
Population estimates for the U.S.: 1930 (revised mid-year estimate of the death registration area) — 118,472. Population
estimates for the Southeast: 1930—25,651,000. Enumerated population, April 1, 1940.
Source: Bureau of the Census, U . S. Mortality Statistics, 1930, Table 8; Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics— Special Reports,
9, No. 30; Vol. 15, No. 7; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1937, Tables 11 and 74.
of living, exceeds by far all other regions. A similar region, the Northeast,
has the lowest rate per 100,000. The Southeast which falls in an inter-
mediate range showed a considerable increase in deaths from automobile
accidents.
344 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 203. Deaths from Suicide per 100,000 Population,
United States, 1940
Source: See Table 99.
Figure 204. Number of Deaths from Homicide per 100,000 Population,
United States, 1940
Source: See Table 99.
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE 345
HEALTH IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS
Cutting across State and regional differences in mortality are the differ-
entials that are found to exist among ethnic, residence, and income groups
after age and sex are standardized. Negroes have higher death rates than
whites, low income groups have higher rates than higher income groups,
and urban dwellers have higher rates than rural dwellers. Only the su-
perior performance of rural dwellers goes against the common tendency of
higher income groups to exhibit better health. Not only are mortality rates
definitely higher in urban areas but the standardized death rate increases
regularly with the size of the city.1 This tendency, as we shall see later,
has been reversed in infant mortality. The problem of medicine and pub-
lic health in the urban environment has been stated by Theobald Smith in
the following words : "Civilization from the medical aspect may be defined
as the maintenance of any increasingly dense population with a falling death
rate in spite of free intercourse. . . . Without the constant application of
medical and preventive safeguards the human race could not sustain it-
self."2
The evidence now indicates, according to Harold F. Dorn,3 that the
unequal distribution of the benefits of modern sanitation and medicine is
operating to alter the relative healthfulness of city and country residence
when measured by mortality rates. Between 1900 and 1930 the death rate
from typhoid decreased about 90 percent in urban areas but only 75 per-
cent in rural areas. At the present time this disease takes relatively more
than twice as many lives in rural areas as in cities. Infant mortality de-
creased 44 percent in urban areas and 34 percent in rural areas from 19 15
to 1934. An infant is now more likely to die before completing the first
year of life if born to parents living in rural areas, although this varies
widely throughout the country. However, mortality from the diseases of
adult life is still appreciably lower among rural than among urban residents.
In 30 years the increase in expectation of life at birth has been about
60 percent greater among persons living in urban communities than among
those living in rural areas. At all ages, except 10 to 20 among females,
mortality has decreased more rapidly in the urban than in the rural popu-
lation. The greater occupational risks of urban males, however, are re-
vealed by the advantage of rural over urban males in expectation of life.
Around 1930 to 1940, white infants born and reared in the country can
1 This appears true even when deaths are registered by place of residence instead of place of occur-
rence, as has been customary until recently.
"Theobold Smith, "The Decline of Infectious Disease in Its Relation to Modern Medicine, Journal
of Preventive Medicine, Vol. II, No. 5 (September, 1928).
8 Harold F. Dorn, "Health in Rural and Urban Areas," Public Health Reports, 53 (Washington, D. C.'
U. S. Government Printing Office, July 15, 1938), 1181-1195.
346 ALL THESE PEOPLE
expect to live about 5 years longer than white infants in the city if they
are boys and about 4 years longer if they are girls. In spite of the more
rapid decline in mortality in urban communities since 1900, rural males
subject to the mortality conditions of 1 900- 1902 had a greater life ex-
pectancy at all ages over 1 than did urban males thirty years later. In other
words, the remarkable gains in the preservation of life during the past
generation have merely advanced the urban population to the level of life
expectancy attained by the rural population at the beginning of the century.
Case rates of nonfatal illness also show that lowest rates occur among peo-
ple living in the open country and in the large cities of over 100,000 popu-
lation. The distribution of mental illness also favors the rural areas. In
New York, a State where facilities are most adequate, the rate of first ad-
missions is about 66 percent higher for urban than for rural residents.4
In every way in which ill health is measured, rural residents in the
United States still possess definite health advantages over urban dwellers.
Only in communicable diseases and those causing infant deaths have the
health facilities and services afforded urban people served to give them
equality with natural advantages of rural dwellers — space, air, sunshine,
and the freedom from the dense contacts of urban masses. Increased pub-
lic health for our rural people, however, would undoubtedly find its recom-
pense in further lowering their illness and death rate.
DEATHS BY OCCUPATIONS
Among other things the health record of rural areas is due to the fact
that agriculture is the least hazardous of all occupations. In the occupa-
tions that men follow it can hardly be said that death is not a respecter of
persons. The incidence of mortality upon the occupations inversely paral-
lels the degree to which they are held in social esteem. Alba M. Edward's
social-economic classes0 show an increasing death rate as we move down the
scale from the professional class to the unskilled workers. The one excep-
tion to this generalization is found among agricultural workers, who have
the lowest death rate of all occupations. Jessamine S. Whitney's study
gives the following standardized death rates per 1,000 males by occupation
in selected states:6 agricultural workers, 6.21 5 professional men, 7.00 ; pro-
prietors, managers, and officials, 7.38 j clerical, 7.40 ; skilled, 8.12 ; semi-
skilled workers, 9.865 and unskilled workers, 13.10. It should be noted
that within these broad classifications certain groups have higher death
rates. Thus the standardized death rate for wholesale and retail dealers
* ibid.
5 See discussion in chapter II.
6 Jessamine S. Whitney, Death Rates by Occupation (New York: National Tuberculosis Association,
1934), p. 17. The States are Alabama, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New
York, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE 347
is 8.17 j for the semi-skilled in manufacturing, 10.03 ; for servants, 11.76.
Highest of all is the rate of 17.26 among the unskilled in factories and in
construction work.
While little research has yet been done on deaths by occupations in the
Southeast, studies from other countries and areas suggest that these rates
have general application. Their meaning for the region is evident. In
terms of occupational environment the South's low death rate is due largely
to the predominance of agriculture. The effect of further industrialization
will be to increase the death rate. For crude death rates this long-run effect
will be reenforced both by the accompanying movement to cities and by
the aging of the population. To the extent that untrained portions of the
population tend to be confined to the lower skilled occupations, mortality
will increase for Negroes and poorer white workers as they move out of
agriculture. This will further accent the need for public health and safety
programs in the region, a trend that should be offset somewhat by the fact
that per capita costs for adequate public health work is lower for the more
densely settled urban populations. At that, it remains doubtful that the
best public health program devised can reduce industrial death rates to the
level maintained among the agricultural populations. Basic to any such
hope would be improvements in the income, housing, and educational level
of the less skilled wage earner, as well as improvements in working condi-
tions to reduce occupational hazards.
NEGRO HEALTH
The Negro still suffers from a greater incidence of illness and death
than his white neighbor, but the old pessimism about the inability of the
race to survive has given way to the new concern about his environment.
The Negro's appalling mortality in the Reconstruction Period, approach-
ing 40 per 1,000, had been cut to 14 in 1932. Standardized for age the
death rate in 14 southern States, 1931-1933, was 15.2 for Negroes and 8.9
for whites. In the previous decade, however, Negro health conditions have
not improved as much as might have been expected. From 1922 to 1932
deaths from all causes for all ages declined only 2.5 percent among Negroes
as compared with 7.7 percent among whites.
Back of these blanket figures are varying rates of mortality for the
Negro, north and south, rural and urban.7 The Negro's highest death rate
in 1930 was found in the urban South, 21.85 his lowest in the rural South,
1 3. 1 (Table 101). In the North this standardized death rate is higher in
rural than in urban areas by 18.2 to 17. 1. Higher urban mortality is espe-
cially evident among Negroes of working ages.
7 See Mary Gover, Mortality Among Southern Negroes, Public Health Bulletin 235 (Washington, D. C.
U. S. Government Printing Office, 1937).
348
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table ioi. Annual Rate of Mortality from All Causes at Specific
Ages Among Colored and White in Urban and Rural Areas of
Fourteen Southern* and Nine Northern** States, 1931-1933
Death rate per 1,000 personst
Section and
All Ages
0 to 4
5 to 9
10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
34
35 to
44
45 to
54
55 to
64
color
)
Age cor-
rected
Crude
over
Southern urban:
21.78
11.77
13.11
7.96
17.14
9.96
18.16
8.41
20.40
12.43
12.17
8.25
15.30
10.73
18.79
10.99
34.65
18.63
20.07
13.19
24.96
14.22
23.22
12.44
2.91
2.48
1.64
1.28
2.85
1.97
2.24
1.32
3.75
2.14
1.83
1.04
3.05
1.48
2.80
1.11
8.49
3.21
4.32
1.82
6.14
2.06
7.48
1.96
11.43
3.85
7.34
2.88
7.36
2.64
10.22
2.97
14.05
4.72
9.28
3.58
9.22
3.38
12.61
3.49
20.63
7.52
12.04
4.91
14.94
6.06
18.51
5.07
35.45
14.24
17.92
8.06
27.12
13.00
26.63
9.23
62.44
30.35
30.55
18.14
50.02
28.34
44.89
19.80
91 10
White
90.33
Southern rural:
Colored
White
74.14
67.74
Northern urban:
White
91.05
82.07
Northern rural:
Colored
White
98.49
74.67
Ratio of Colored to White rate
Southern:
Urban. .
Rural . .
Northern:
Urban. .
Rural. .
1.85
1.65
1.64
1.48
1.86
1.52
,1.17
1.28
1.75
1.76
2.64
2.37
2.97
2.55
2.98
2.59
2.74
2.45
2.49
2.22
2.06
1.68
1.72
2.16
1.43
1.71
1.76
1.87
1.45
1.70
2.06
2.52
2.98
3.82
2.79
3.44
2.73
3.61
2.47
3.65
2.09
2.89
1.76
2.27
1.01
1.09
1.11
1.32
Ratio of Urban
.0 Rural
rate
Southern:
White
1.66
1.48
.94
1.18
1.68
1.51
.81
.98
1.73
1.41
1.07
1.14
1.77
1.94
1.27
1.49
2.05
2.06
1.09
1.33
1.97
1.76
.82
1.05
1.56
1.34
.72
.89
1.51
1.32
.73
.97
1.71
1.53
.81
1.20
1.98
1.77
1.02
1.41
2.04
1.67
1.11
1.43
1.23
1.33
Northern:
White
.92
1.10
*lncludes the Southeast plus Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Oklahoma.
"States: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
t/The age distribution of the population is as of 1930.
Source: Mary Gover, Mortality Among Southern Negroes Since 1920, Table 5, p. 15.
It is at the productive ages 15-45 that the largest relative differences
are found between white and Negro mortality. In this period respiratory
tuberculosis and heart disease account for 30 to 40 percent of the total ex-
cess of colored over white mortality in the South. Among the causes of
death which show a higher ratio of Negro to white races syphilis is out-
standing (Table 102). Against this must be placed the fact that syphilis
is more likely to be recorded as a cause of death among Negroes. Among
the causes of death which show relatively low rates among Negroes are
cancer, angina pectoris, and certain infectious diseases of childhood. By
age, Mary Gover points out, the peak of excess colored mortality comes at
10 to 14 for respiratory tuberculosis, at 20 to 24 for the infectious and
nervous diseases and pneumonia; at 25 to 34 for cancer, diseases of the
heart and arteries, and at 35 to 44 for digestive diseases and diseases of the
kidneys8 (Table 101).
8 ibid.
HEALTH AND VITALITY OF THE PEOPLE 349
Table 102. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Ratio of Negro Rates
of Death to White Rates, United States and Southeast, 1940
Causes of death
All Causes .
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
IS.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
Homicide
Malaria
Pellagra
Syphilis \\\\
Typhoid and paratyphoid
Tuberculosis
All puerperal causes
Dysentery [
Influenza
Senility .!!!.'!
Diarrhea and enteritis .'....'.
Communicable diseases of childhood*.
Pneumonia
Nephritis .
United States
Ratio of rates
Congenital malformation and diseases of early infancy '
Alcoholism .
Cerebral hemorrhage, etc
Hernia and intestinal obstruction.
Appendicitis
Accidents and undefined violence.
Ulcer of stomach or duodenum
Heart diseases
Diabetes mellitus
Bronchitis
Goiter "„..'.'
Cirrhosis of the liver.
Cancer
Suicide
1.3
11.1
9.5
6.0
5.6
3.7
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.3
Rank
Southeast
Ratio of rates
1.5
Rank
1
5.6
2
2
3.5
3
3
2.2
7.5
4
6.5
1
5
2.3
6
6
2.7
4
7
2.5
5
8
1.5
15
9.5
1.7
10.5
9.5
2.2
7.5
11
1.7
10.5
12
1.5
15
13
1.7
10.5
14
1.7
10.5
15.5
1.2
18
15.5
1.2
18
17.5
1.5
15
17.5
1.6
13
19
1.2
18
20
1.1
21
21.5
1.1
21
21.5
1.1
21
23.5
0.9
24.5
23.5
0.8
26.5
26
1.0
23
26
0.9
24.5
26
0.8
26.5
28
0.2
28
•Measles^ scarlet fever, whooping cough, and diphtheria.
2»urce: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics— Special Reports, 16, mortality summaries by specific causes of death.
The problem of Negro health, serious as it is in its economic and social
aspects, is nothing of a medical mystery. Excess Negro mortality is made
of the elements that cause excess deaths everywhere. It is related to occu-
pational factors found in rough, heavy work, to poor housing, heating, and
sanitation, to inadequate nutrition and poor medical care, and to that ig-
norance which condemns a people to both, when they might secure better.
Only two factors might be offered as at all peculiar to Negroes rather than
the poor in any group. One is the greater incidence of venereal disease,
which has been attributed to a less repressive attitude toward sex in the
Negro's culture. Another, a greater concentration of respiratory tubercu-
losis among adolescents, has been attributed both to occupational stress,
poor housing, and less probably to certain physiological characteristics of
the race. Table 102 shows eight diseases from which the Negro has a
death rate over twice as high as that of the whites in the Southeast.
Many of the environmental conditions characteristic of Negro life oper-
ate to condition their higher infant and maternal mortality. Of the more
than 250,000 Negro infants born alive each year in the United States about
22,000 die. In northern States the infant mortality rate in 1933-1935 was
cJ^^t °" ^^o ^^ ^ Maternd M°rtdi£y AmonZ NeS'°"> Children's Bureau Publi-
cation 243 (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1937).
35o ALL THESE PEOPLE
83 6 for Negroes as compared with 49.8 for whites. In the South it was
86.1 for Negroes and 53 for whites. Two-thirds of the Negro births oc-
curred in the rural South. Midwives attend more than half of all Negro
births but in the rural South about three-fourths of the births were deliv-
ered by midwives. North and South, rural and urban, it is found that the
lowest Negro infant mortality rates prevail in the rural South, 80.2 ; the
highest in the urban South, 109.3. Next highest comes the rural North,
100.9, and the next to the lowest in the urban North, 81.0. In every State,
urban and rural rates show much less variation among whites than among
Negroes.
More than half of the Negro infant mortality occurs in the first month
of life. Neo-natal deaths were 44.8 per 1000 live births for Negro as com-
pared with 31.7 for white infants. While the recent rate of decline in in-
fant deaths has been as great among Negroes as whites, the mortality rate
for Negro infants 1933-1935 was at the stage attained by the white group
in 19 1 5. The stillbirth rate is more than twice as high among Negroes, 72
to 32 for whites. The rate may be higher, for it is thought that Negro still-
births are subject to less adequate reporting. Maternal mortality is also
greater, being 96.1 per 10,000 live births in 1933-1935 as compared with
54.6 for whites. The principal causes of maternal death are the same as
among the white group and are largely preventable.
The downward trends in deaths of Negro infants and mothers, says
Elizabeth Tandy, reflect the gradual changes in public health and social
conditions and indicate the adaptation of the Negro to his environment and
to the increasing healthfulness of his community.10 The case of the Negro
accents the rural-urban differential in health. The development of ma-
ternal and child health programs in rural areas, however, is still in the pio-
neer stage in this country. These figures indicate the great need and can
be matched by wholehearted acceptance by the Negroes of health facilities
wherever they are made available.
10 Ibid. Recent improvements in infant mortality among Negroes are discussed in Chapter 14.
CHAPTER 23
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
The great triumphs of public health have been won in combating infec-
tious disease and in saving the lives of the young. Wherever shown to be
favorable, the position of the Southeast in mortality is due to its compara-
tively young population and its predominantly rural environment. A youth-
ful and a rural population still offers the most fertile field for improvement
in public health but it is also valuable to speculate as to what will be the
health problems of the Southeast as its population matures.
LENGTH OF LIFE
Saving our population from infant mortality means that they will live
long enough to die from the diseases of post-maturity. Improvement in
health and vitality is shown by the extent to which man has increased the
average length of life. Not until 1930 were life tables prepared covering
the whole United States. Table 103, however, gives the trend of mortality
Table
103.
Selected Values from Life Tables for White Males and
Females, United States, 1 900-1 940
At birth
Age 20
Age 45
Age 70
Time period
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Male
Female
Mortality rate per 1,000 persons
alive at beginning of year of age:
1900-1902*
133. 5
80.3
62.3
57.0
45.4
48.2
56.3
59.1
60.6
62.9
110.6
63.9
49.6
45.0
35.3
51.1
58.5
62.7
64.5
67.3
5.9
4.3
3.2
2.7
2.1
42.2
45.6
46.0
46.8
47.6
5.5
4.3
2.8
2.2
1.4
43.8
46.5
48.5
49.7
51.2
12.6
9.3
9.3
8.6
7.7
24.2
26.0
25.3
25.5
25.7
10.6
8.1
7.0
6.3
5.3
25.5
27.0
27.4
28.0
28.7
58.9
54.6
58.0
56.3
56.1
9.0
9.5
9.2
9.3
9.3
1919-1921**
53.7
1929-1931
50.2
1930-1939
48.7
1940
45.8
Average future lifetime:
1900-1902*
43.9
1919-1921**...
9.6
1929-1931
9.9
1930-1939
10.0
1940
10.2
10.3
"For the original registration States.
•For the death registration States of 1920.
^MaltiwtZntiMt'Z' H?iH '939 lP/d.imi?^> ?<%"'* by Elbertie Foudray and Thomas N. E. Greville under
he Census lufvH 194? 19$ \2j H?"8^"'^ Assistant Ch.ef Statistician, Division of Statistical Research, Bureau of
1941)' p 8.' Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, Statistical Bulletin (New York: December.
[351]
352
ALL THESE PEOPLE
and average future lifetime for the white population of registered areas
from 1900-02 to 1940. In that period the life expectancy of white males
at birth has increased from 48.2 to 62.9 years. White females, who live
longer, had their average future lifetime increased from 51.1 to 67.3 years.
The great increases were in life expectancy at birth but at age twenty the
increase was considerable, some S-5 years for males, 7.4 years for females.
At age 45, increases were slight 5 and at age 70, hardly perceptible. These
comparisons would indicate in the language of the census "that there has
been no increase in the extreme limits of life, but that many persons who
would have died in infancy or in early and middle life are now completing
a normal life span." This is made clear by reference to the age specific
rates of Table 103, for infant mortality has declined over 60 percent and
mortality at age 45 by 50 percent.
Variations among States in 1930 amounted to over 20 percent, or
about fifteen years in average length of life.1 Our calculations show that
little difference now exists in life expectancy between the Nation and the
Southeast. In 1940 life expectancy at birth in the Nation was 67.3 years for
white females and 62.94 for white males (Table 104). In the Southeast,
Table 104. Expectation of Life and Mortality Rate per 1,000, at
Specified Ages, by Color and Sex, General Population,
United States, 1940
Age
0.
1
2.
3.
4
S,
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Expectation of Life
Total
persons
63.77
65.65
64.97
64.14
63.25
62.34
57.64
52.91
48.34
43.88
39.46
35.09
30.81
26.68
22.75
19.09
15.69
12.56
9.80
7.42
5.44
White
Males
Females
62.94
67.31
64.91
68.76
64.22
68.04
63.38
67.18
62.49
66.28
61.58
65.36
56.91
60.63
52.20
55.84
47.61
51.15
43.12
46.54
38.64
41.98
34.20
37.46
29.85
33.01
25.69
28.67
21.77
24.48
18.15
20.50
14.86
16.75
11.88
13.30
9.26
10.27
7.02
7.68
5.20
5.50
Colored
Males
53.04
56.02
55.55
54.79
53.93
53.04
48.41
43.80
39.58
35.76
32.09
28.49
25.01
21.78
18.91
16.50
14.22
11.88
9.83
7.91
6.08
Females
56.01
58.23
57.67
56.88
56.01
55.12
50.44
45.83
41.72
37.87
34.10
30.40
26.84
23.58
20.60
18.10
15.83
13.46
11.30
9.38
7.67
Mortality Rate per 1,000
Total
persons
43.50
4.93
2.55
1.73
1.43
1.23
.84
1.36
2.14
2.62
3.07
3.87
5.26
7.47
10.92
15.89
22.48
33.28
50.47
76.15
117.40
White
Males
45.45
4.69
2.51
1.75
1.47
1.30
.94
1.37
2.06
2.43
2.79
3.58
5.08
7.67
11.66
17.64
25.67
37.61
56.11
84.60
127.73
Females
35.31
4.07
2.14
1.51
1.20
1.02
.67
.96
1.44
1.81
2.20
2.79
3.73
5.28
7.67
11.38
17.12
27.20
43.89
68.59
110.66
Colored
Males
70.43
9.43
4.43
2.53
2.08
1.79
1.24
2.74
5.37
7.28
8.64
10.28
13.33
18.02
25.71
33.15
36.85
47.41
61.42
78.02
110.73
Females
54.87
7.55
3.58
2.30
2.05
1.71
.99
3.04
5.32
6.38
7.52
8.96
12.19
16.00
22.43
30.04
33.33
40.38
52.37
67.86
84.34
Source:
data i
States !
1 "While this variation may be real, it may also be the result of inadequate reporting of vital statistics
and inaccuracies in population data. This is particularly true among southern States, where we have had
considerable difficulty in securing complete registration of births and infant deaths and in accurately enu-
merating the age of the Negro poPulation.»-Letter from C. L. Dedrick, Chief Statistician, Bureau of the
Census, February I, 1939-
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
Table 105. Abridged Life Table for the Population by Color
and Sex, Southeast, i 939-1 941
353
Age
0.
1.
5.
10.
IS.
20.
25.
30.
35.
40..
45.,
50..
55..
60..
65..
70..
75..
80..
85..
90..
95..
100..
105..
White
Male
Survivors
at age x
1
Life
expectation
100,000
61.68
94,160
64.48
92,864
61.36
92,313
56.72
91,816
52.01
90,961
47.47
89,678
43.12
88,316
38.74
86,757
34.39
84,774
30.13
82,043
25.94
78,270
22.18
73,244
18.52
66,211
15.21
57,322
12.17
46,246
9.46
33,290
7.16
19,727
5.39
8,970
4.02
2,792
3.02
541
2.38
91
1.77
9
Female
Survivors
at age x
1
100,000
95,410
94,290
93,848
93,502
92,887
92,027
91,042
89,829
88,336
86,439
83,974
80,571
75,841
69,034
59,359
45,832
29,645
14,901
5,305
1,191
196
22
Life
expectation
Col
Male
Survivors
at age x
1
66.80
69.00
65.80
61.10
56.32
51.67
47.13
42.61
38.15
33.75
29.44
25.22
21.18
17.33
13.78
10.60
7.96
5.93
4.41
3.29
2.52
1.82
100,000
90,684
88,839
88,162
87,416
85,847
83,102
79,803
75,919
71,592
66,044
59,396
51,240
43,110
35,171
27,404
19,975
12,711
6,784
2,955
973
269
57
Life
expectation
51.62
55.90
53.03
48.42
43.81
39.56
35.78
32.15
28.67
25.24
22.15
19.34
17.01
14.75
12.52
10.36
8.29
6.63
5.33
4.29
3.60
2.85
Female
Survivors
at age x
1
100,000
92,691
91,061
90,480
89,836
88,038
85,536
82,611
79,053
75,088
69,833
63,837
55,930
47,352
39,486
32,177
24,712
17,530
11,220
5,945
2,667
1,061
250
Life
expectation
55.02
58.33
55.35
50.69
46.04
41.92
38.07
34.33
30.76
27.25
24.10
21.12
18.74
16.69
14.52
12.25
10.20
8.37
6.71
5.55
4.58
3.20
Figure 205. Number of Survivors Out of 100,000 Born Alive, by
Race and Sex, United States, i 939-1 941
100,000*-
10 15 20- 25 30 35 40 AS 50 55 SO 85 70 75 60 8S 00 95 100
AGE IN YEARS
Source: United States Life Tables, Vital Statistics— Special Reports, Vol. i9) No. 4 (Jan. 11, 1944).
354 ALL THESE PEOPLE
average future lifetime, 1939-1941 (Table 105), was 66.80 and 61.68
years for white females and males respectively. This slight differential
decreases with advancing age, giving the southern white population, after
age 25, a life expectancy equal to that of the Nation.
Life expectation for the total population of the region, however, has
always been much lower, averaging approximately 57 years in 1930. This
lower figure is explained by the high mortality of the colored population.
For them, life expectancy at birth in 1930 was 49.33 for females, 47.25
for males. These values were but little lower than those for the Nation,
49.51 and 47-55-2 In the 1940 tables the corresponding figures for non-
white females and males was 56.01 and 53.04 in the Nation; 55.02 and
51.62 in the Southeast. Figure 205 presents for both sexes the number
of survivors at different ages for white and colored populations in the
Nation. The Southeast repeats the same pattern.
CAUSE OF DEATH IN A MATURE POPULATION
Projection of present population trends is hardly necessary to convince
us that we will soon need fewer baby carriages and more hospitals. While
the stationary population may be regarded as another "statistical fiction,"
calculation of deaths by cause on this basis is significant because of the pres-
ent trend of the population toward the new age distribution. As we ap-
proach the life table population, we should realize the changed causes of
death that will operate. The study of mortality statistics in the actual popu-
lation is admittedly of major importance for health workers concerned with
immediate and practical results, whereas the calculation of mortality rates
among our stationary population3 indicates the major causes of death among
the mature population that we are developing.
Moreover a comparison of deaths in the actual and in the stationary
population serves to show the extent to which the region's low mortality is
a function of its present young age distribution, a condition which cannot
be regarded as permanent.
Our present age distribution represents the cumulative effect of the past,
its high births, its death rates, and its migratory movements. It requires the
calculation of the stationary population to show the effects of the present
forces of births and deaths. Our present population is much too young to
be the result of present rates, and its age distribution is the result of fac-
tors which are not operating in the present and probably will not be operat-
ing in the future. In this sense accordingly the calculation of deaths by
2 Vital Statistics— Special Reports, I, No. 2, July 27, 1936.
3 The method here used is an adaptation by Nadia Danilevsky of procedures developed in Robert R.
Kuczynski, The Measurement oj Population Growth (New York: Oxford Univers.ty Press, 1936), p l94,
and Louis I. Dublin and Alfred J. Lotka in The Length oj Life (New York: Ronald Press, 1936), p. i<*.
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
355
Table 106. Distribution of Deaths from All Causes by 5-Year Age
Groups Among the Actual and Stationary Population, with
Cumulative Number of Deaths at the End of Each
Period, Southeast, 1930
Number of Deaths
Age
Cumulative Number of Deaths
Age period
Actual
population
Stationary
population
Actual
population
Stationary
population
0-4
57,419
5,653
4,802
10,052
13,453
12,349
11,859
13,789
14,154
16,292
18,840
18,116
19,253
19,290
20,905
17,775
13,371
7,515
3,214
1,568
40,791
3,757
3,299
6,993
10,459
12,754
13,153
14,142
16,934
19,244
23,439
29,403
35,491
43,762
50,086
50,029
40,653
24,273
8,011
2,600
5....
57,419
63,072
67,874
77,926
91,379
103,728
115,587
129,376
143,530
159,822
178,662
196,778
216,031
235,321
256,226
274,001
287,372
294,887
298,101
299,669
40,791
44,548
47,847
54,840
65,299
78,053
91,206
105,348
122,282
141,526
164,965
194,368
229,859
273,621
323,707
373,736
414,389
438,662
446,673
449,273
5-9
10
10-14
15...
15-19
20...
20-24
25..
25-29
30...
30-34
35.
35-39
40...
40-44
45...
45-49
50..
50-54
55...
55-59
60.
60-64
65.
65-69
70..
70-74
75
75-79
80 .
80-84
85..
85-89
90
90-94
95..
All
?2U£V,U-?; Mortality Statistics, 1930, Table 4; 1929 1931. Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930, Population, II, Chap .
10, Tables 24 and 27. Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, 1929, 1930, 1931, Tables 1 and 4.
cause among the stationary population gives us a closer approximation to
reality than such a figure for the actual population. Our calculations (Ta-
ble 106) show that in a stationary population equal in size to the actual
population of the Southeast in 1930, the number of deaths would be 449,-
273 instead of the actual 299,669 (Figure 206), and thus the stationary
death rate as of 1930 would be 17.52 instead of the crude rate of 11.68.
This is a portent of the future and its meaning may be shown by an
example. If we should imagine an ideal, stationary population with a con-
stant number of births from year to year where everybody lives to be 100
and deaths occurred only at this age, the death rate would be 10 per 1,000
population, only little less than the actual rate of 11.68 in the region. In-
deed we can calculate that a death rate of 1 1.68 would be attained if every-
body lived until 86 with no deaths before this age. It is evident that the
Southeast is still very far from this goal and that therefore the ageing of
the population will bring about an increasing total death rate in the future
even though age specific rates remain at the same level.
The crude median age of death of our regional population, however,
ivas only 47 in 1930 while for the stationary population it was 64 (Table
107). This difference is due to the fact that the excess in the younger ages
of the actual population unduly weights the number of deaths of the young
and therefore gives a very misleading crude median age at death for all
causes. If instead of computing the median age at death, we had computed
356
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 206. The Cumulative Number of Deaths from All Causes by
Five-Year Age Groups Among the Actual and the Stationary
Population of the Southeast, 1930
CUMULATIVE NUMBER
OF DEATHS (THOUSANDS)
500
STATIONARY POPULATION
Sources: Table 106. United States Mortality Statistics, 1930, Table 8; All Sources necessary to compute
stationary population of the Southeast. Method adopted from Louis I. Dublin and Alfred J. Lotka,
Length of Life (New York, 1936), p. 104; Robert R. Kuczynski, Measurement of Population Growth
(New York, 1936).
the arithmetic mean, we would have for the actual population a value sev-
eral years less than 47, since the irregularities of the distribution shift the
mean in the direction of younger ages. But the mean age at death, or the
mean after lifetime is by definition the life expectation at birth. Should we
then conclude that the life expectation of the regional population is below
47 years? Not at all; we already know that life expectation at birth for the
total population in the Southeast in 1930 was about 57. We could have
secured the same result if, instead of computing the median age at death
in the stationary population, we had computed the arithmetic mean. There
is thus a great difference between the average age at death in the actual and
stationary population and it is the utilization of the latter statistical fiction
that gives us the true life expectation of our present population.
Our comparison of death rates in the actual population for the United
States and Southeast by 28 major causes (Table 102) shows that prevent-
able diseases of the younger ages, puerperal causes, and malaria and pel-
lagra, branded as diseases of poverty and ignorance, rank much higher in
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
357
Table 107. Incidence of Death from Specified Causes Among the Actual
and Stationary Population, with Percentage of Total Number
of Deaths, Death Rate per 100,000 Population, and
Median Age at Death, Southeast, 1930
Actual Population
Stationary Population
Cause of death
Number
deaths
Percent
of total
Death
rate per
100,000
Median
age at
death
Number
deaths
Percent
of total
Death
rate per
100,000
Median
age at
death
All Causes
299,669
40,630
24,523
22,226
19,743
18,319
14,783
14,705
7,751
5,115
4,375
4,010
2,427
100.0
13.6
8.2
7.4
6.6
6.1
4.9
4.9
2.6
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.8
1,168.3
158.4
95.6
86.6
77.0
71.4
57.6
57.3
30.2
19.9
17.1
15.6
9.5
47
64
65
33
64
32
55
60
5
1
31
70
43
449,273
79,275
49,406
26,379
39,402
23,227
24,566
26,954
9,596
3,738
4,713
8,800
3,237
100.0
17.6
11.0
5.9
8.8
5.2
5.5
6.0
2.1
0.8
1.0
2.0
0.7
1,751.5
309.1
192.6
102.8
153.6
90.6
95.8
105.1
37.4
14.6
18.4
34.3
12.6
64
70
71
42
70
51
66
66
60
Under 5
35
75
51
2; Chronic nephritis
4. Cerebral hemorrhage. . . .
9. Communicable diseases
10. Homicide
11. Diseases of blood vessels .
Note: Total stationary population is assumed equal to 25,651 thousand, the actual mid-year population in 1930.
Source: U. S. Mortality Statistics, 1930, Tables 5, 7, 8; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1937, Table 11; Fifteenth Census
of the United Stales, 1930, Population, II, Chap. 10, Tables 24 and 27; Birth, Stillbirth, and Infant Mortality Statistics, 1929,
1930, 1931, Tables 1 and 4; P. K. Whelpton, "The Completeness of Birth Registrations in the United States," Journal of the
American Statistical Association, 29 (June, 1934).
the Southeast than in the Nation as a whole. On the other hand, most
diseases of the older ages — heart, cancer, diabetes, etc. — show higher rates
in the Nation. When colored death rates by cause for 1930 were ranked
by their ratio to those for the white population, they ranged in the South-
east from ratios of 8.9 to 1 for syphilis j 4 to 1 for typhoid, and 3.3 to 1 for
pellagra to 0.8 for cancer and 0.2 for suicide. For only six causes out of
twenty-four in the Nation and for only four causes in the Southeast were
the rates lower among the colored than among the white population.
Wherever causes of death are closely connected with low standards of living
and lack of education, as we have seen, the colored ratio is especially high.
The comparison of deaths in the actual and stationary population serves
to show that, given present medical practices and living conditions, we may
expect in the future higher death rates. At the same time, however, we
will have a more favorable median age of death from all causes (64 as
against 47) and from each disease in particular (Table 108). Nevertheless
the number of deaths from most diseases will greatly increase. Table 106
and Figure 206 indicate that from less than 300,000 in the actual popu-
lation of the South in 1930 the cumulative number of deaths will mount
to almost 450,000 in the stationary population.
Significant contrasts are found in the age concentration of deaths from
specified causes. Figure 207 indicates that the median age of deaths from
all causes will rise from 47 to 64 with the two-thirds range shifting from
the span 28 to 61 years to the span 29 to 80 years. In heart disease the
358
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 108. Important Causes of Death Ranked by Median Age at Death,
United States (Total Population) and Southeast (Actual
Population by Color and Total Stationary
Population), 1930
United
States
Southeast
Cause of Death
Total actual
population
Total
popul
actual
ation
Wh
popul
ite
ation
Colored
population
Stationary
population
Age
Rank
Age
Rank
Age
Rank
Age
Rank
Age
Rank
70
69
67
67
64
63
60
56
54
49
48
47
47
41
40
35
33
32
29
29
23
10
2
Under 1
First
week
1
2
3H
3H
5
6
7
8
9
10
11H
11H
13
14
15
16
17
18H
18H
20
21
22
23
24
70
64
65
64
60
47
55
43
32
33
31
5
1
1
3H
2
Wi
5
6
7
9
8
10
11
12
73
68
69
68
63
S3
62
44
34
41
35
6
2
1
3H
2
3H
5
6
7
10
8
9
11
12
62
57
58
55
52
40
47
39
28
29
30
4
1
1
3
2
4
5
6
7
10
9
8
11
12
75
69
70
69
66
64
66
51
51
42
35
60
Under 5
1
3K
2
3H
6. Cancer and other malignant tumors
sy2
8. Hernia and intestinal obstruction..
SK
m
14. Accidents and undefined violence. .
10
ii
7
22. Communicable diseases of child-
12
23. Diarrhea and enteritis (all ages). . .
24. Congenital malformations and
Note: Median age at death computed for 24 diseases among the total population of the Nation, but only for _12 diseases among
the population of the Southeast; therefore, rankings for the Southeast are not comparable to those for the Nation and are only
valid for comparison of various population groups in the Southeast. Lobar pneumonia is below "All Causes" by median age
at death for the United States, but is above for the Southeast, for all population groups given here.
Source: See Table 107
median shifts from 64 to 69 years of age and the two-thirds range from
45-78 to 53-80 years. The median age of deaths from tuberculosis rises
from 33 to 42 with a shift in the two-thirds span from 20-56 to 24-67
years. Broncho-pneumonia is most interesting. With a wide two-thirds
range, a slight shift from spans of 1-70 to 2-79 means a shift from 5 to 60
years in the median age of death (Table 108).
When the mortality of the actual and stationary population is contrasted
in Table 107 it is found that heart disease as a cause of death would
double its claim from 40,000 to 80,000 deaths. Other causes of death
would also show great increases, thus: chronic nephritis increases from
25,000 to 50,000, cerebral hemorrhage from 20,000 to 39,000, cancer
from less than 15,000 to almost 27,000. While tuberculosis would show
slight change, the diseases of childhood are the only ones to show an
actual decrease. Table 107 shows the contrast in the cumulative trend in
age specific death rates from nephritis and lobar pneumonia as against
deaths from the communicable diseases of childhood. Such trends are
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
359
Figure 207. The Median Age at Death with Range from Specified
Causes, Actual and Stationary Population, Southeast, 1930
ACTUAL POPULATION
STATIONARY POPULATION
HEART DISEASES
ALL CAUSES
ssassss^^
BRONCHOPNUEMONIA
^^>^&&&5§&s§aa
TUBERCULOSIS (ALL FORMS)
50
AGE
Source: See Table 107. 66 2/3 percent range centered about the median.
Inevitable results of the aging process for, as Table 106 indicates, deaths
among those from 60 to 70 will rise from 38 thousand to 79 thousand.
These trends can be minimized somewhat by improvements in the level
of living and in the education of the people of the Southeast provided these
changes are accompanied by an advance both in the science of medicine and
the distribution of medical care. This will mean moreover that the efforts
of scientists and physicians, successfully directed to the field of bacteriologi-
cal diseases of youth, should also be concentrated on those diseases of the
aging which depend for prevention and cure upon the development of
such sciences as nutrition, biochemistry, and endocrinology. Even here,
however, the best attack on the disease of the aged is an adequate health and
nutrition program for the period of childhood and youth.
We may conclude that only by studying the distribution of deaths in
the stationary population can we gain a correct idea of their occurrence both
in time and number without the distorting effects of recent high fertility
on age composition. The vital statistics of our actual population give us
360 ALL THESE PEOPLE
an unduly optimistic idea as to the small number of deaths and an unduly
pessimistic idea as to the young age at which death occurs. True for death
from all causes, this is also true when we analyze the specific causes of
death acting on the actual and the stationary population. As in the matter
of life expectancy, this analysis of the incidence of disease and death in
the stationary population indicates what is theoretically true for the present
and what may actually be true for the future. Prominent among the prob-
lems facing an ageing population is the increased incidence of mental
disease.
MENTAL DISEASE
Mental disease is coming to loom larger in the public health picture.
Studies have shown that for certain populations the chance of becoming a
patient in a mental hospital is as great as the chance of dying from some of
the major diseases. Where facilities are available for practically all suffer-
ers from mental disease it is possible to calculate the chances of commit-
ment to such institutions. Thus at the mortality and first admission rates
prevailing in Massachusetts during 1929-193 1, 57 out of every 1,000 male
infants and 53 of 1,000 female infants would live to be committed to a
mental hospital.4 In New York the rates were 53 for male infants and 48
for females.
Earlier attempts were made to relate the statistics on patients hospital-
ized for nervous and mental disease to the quality of a given population.
This approach has largely given way to the more objective approach of
mental hygiene. The incidence of mental disease is seen as a function of
environment in conjunction with the organism, and environment is consid-
ered in its social as well as in its public health aspect. Thus rates of com-
mitment, it is found, are usually much lower in the rural than in the urban
environment. In addition, the number of patients admitted to hospitals
bears a direct relation to the provision of adequate facilities. The average
duration of cases of mental disease from onset until death or dismissal is
so great that few States have been able to provide anything like optimum
hospital facilities. Figures on mental disease accordingly do not often mean
what they say, nor say what they mean, to the man on the street.
Rates per thousand population in 1940 (Table 109) show that the
Southeast and the Southwest have a lower proportion of patients in hos-
pitals for mental disease than other regions. This condition may reflect the
simpler conditions of a rural environment or it may be due simply to the
lack of hospital facilities in the South. We would expect the Northeast
and Far West to have the best facilities, and we find that they have the
* Harold F. Dorn, "The Incidence and Future Expectancy of Mental Disease," Public Health Reports
2001 (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, November II, 1938).
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
361
highest rates. When we relate the number of first admissions in 1940 to
the total number of patients on hospital books, we find however, that the
Southeast leads all the other regions, except the Far West, with 21.9 per-
cent first admissions (Table 109). Again this is not necessarily indicative of
a new trend in the increase of cases, but may represent the region's improve-
ment in the provision of hospital facilities.
Hoping to cast some light on the geographical distribution of patients
by types of mental disorder we have tried to analyze the percentage dis-
tribution of patients by type of disease within each region (Table 109).
Numerically the five most important types of mental disturbances were
selected: manic-depressive psychosis, schizophrenia, diseases caused by
syphilis, diseases due to degeneration of tissues connected with senescence
of the organism and, finally, those caused by alcoholism. These five groups
comprise about 70 percent of all cases under care in hospitals for mental
disease.
Table 109. Patients in Hospitals for Mental Disease, United States
and the Six Major Regions, 1940
Type of Disease
United
States
North-
east
South-
east
South-
west
Middle
States
North-
west
Far
West
District of
Columbia
532,999
4.0
105,989
19.9
209,634
5.2
38,158
18.2
81,415
2.9
17,855
21.9
25,198
2.6
5,087
20.2
142,214
4.0
29,244
20.6
23,773
3.2
3,973
16.7
44,144
4.5
10,641
24.1
6,621
1,031
Cerebral arterio-sclerosis and senile
21,026
19.8
8,978
23.5
2,395
13.4
767
15.1
5,732
19.6
800
20.1
2,129
20.0
225
Cerebral arterio-sclerosis and senile
Schizophrenia, percent of all admissions. . . .
20,457
19.3
7,889
20.7
2,810
15.7
1,206
23.7
5,467
18.7
798
20.1
1,931
18.1
356
Alcoholism (with or without psychosis) —
11,987
11.3
3,288
8.6
2,511
14.1
366
7.2
3,297
11.3
284
7.1
2,188
20.6
53
Manic-depressive, number of admissions . . .
Manic-depressive, percent of all admissions.
10,433
9.8
3,442
9.0
2,520
14.1
540
10.6
2,377
8.1
429
10.8
1,091
10.3
34
G.P. and other forms of syphilis of the
C.N.S.,** — number
8,431
8.0
2,597
6.8
1,509
8.5
553
10.9
2,659
9.1
257
6.5
735
6.9
121
G.P. and other forms of syphilis of the
•Number of patients related to enumerated population April 1, 1940.
••General Paresis and other forms of Syphilis of the Central Nervous System.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — S-pecial Reports, 15, No. 22.
Comparing manic-depressive and schizophrenic patients by regions, we
find that the proportion of schizophrenic cases are roughly twice as high
as those of manic-depressive cases in all regions except the Southeast. In
the Southeast the number of patients of each type is about equal, being
1 4. i and 15.7 percent of all cases respectively. This should be indicative
of some actual difference since the Southwest, which is not superior to the
Southeast with regard to hospital facilities, shows the same predominance
of schizophrenic over manic-depressive patients as other regions.
362 ALL THESE PEOPLE
What, then, should cause an excess of manic-depressive cases and a
comparative shortage of schizophrenia in the Southeast? To characterize
very roughly the two types of mental disease, we may say that the manic-
depressive psychosis generally occurs when a person, usually of the extro-
vert type, is not adapted and cannot properly adjust to meet various strains,
overstimulation, worries, etc., of a strenuous life. Schizophrenia is more
apt to find its victims among persons of the introvert type who feel iso-
lated, not because of geographic solitude, but because of a failure to be as-
similated or to achieve the desired recognition from their fellow men. For
instance, it is known that Negroes, while living in the South where they
are surrounded by their own folk and live in customary, even though un-
favorable conditions are apt to suffer much less from schizophrenia than
when they migrate to the cities of the North. These characterizations of
the disease would indicate that the Southeast as a homogeneous region with
well established if somewhat rigid folkways, presents an environment un-
favorable to the occurrence of schizophrenia. At the same time this rigid-
ity together with other handicaps of existence may put an undue strain on
some overexcitable individuals, and thus create a favorable ground for
manic-depressive psychosis.
None of the remaining regional differences takes us so far afield in
doubtful theory. The high percentage of patients suffering from general
paresis in the Southwest is due to the high incidence of syphilis especially
among Mexicans coupled with insufficient facilities for an early diagnosis
and treatment of the disease in this region. The number of cases attributed
to cerebral arteriosclerosis and to senile psychosis reflects the age distribu-
tion of regions. Here we would expect the Southeast to have the smallest
proportions.
Finally, the percentages of mental diseases caused by alcoholism fol-
low to a certain extent the regional distribution of deaths from alcoholism
(Figure 208). The Far West ranked first in both rates in 1940, and the
Southwest ranked among the lowest. The Southeast ranked third in deaths
from alcoholism but second in percentages of psychosis due to alcoholism.
It is felt that variations in certain rates in the Southeast can be traced
to racial differences both in the incidence of mental disease among Negroes
and in facilities for their hospitalization. The greater incidence of syphilis
and thus of paresis among this group is generally known. None of the
data however justifies the assumption of constitutional inferiority among
Negroes nor do they prove conclusively that Negroes have been subject
to social and economic discrimination sufficient to affect rates of mental
disease.5
B See Benjamin Malzberg, "Mental Disease Among American Negroes" in Otto Klineburg's Charac-
teristics of the American Negro (New York, 1944), rp- 371-99, for a discussion of this problem based
on New York figures.
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS
363
Figure 208. The Number of Deaths from Alcoholism per 100,000
Population, United States, 1940
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 1(140, Vol. 15, No. 7.
In his study of mental patients in Georgia hospitals J. E. Greene6
found that Negroes had higher hospitalization rates, notably high death
rates, and low discharge rates. Georgia Negroes in spite of inadequate
facilities are hospitalized at earlier ages, die at earlier ages and after a
shorter period of hospital residence than do whites. Negroes compare
favorably, however, in their high percentage of those discharged as "re-
covered" or "improved" and in low percentage readmitted.
Partly because of increased facilities for its treatment, it is commonly
believed that mental disease has shown an alarming increase in recent years.
Certainly the figures on hospitalization show that the number admitted
increased more than 40 percent from 1926 to 1936. This trend can be
checked against conditions in States with adequate facilities. Studies of
first admissions in Massachusetts, New York, and Illinois, States where
facilities were first made fairly adequate, show no such increases. From
1920 to 1930 the number of first admissions per 100,000 population de-
creased for women under 70 and for men under 45 or 50. In Massachu-
setts decreases also occurred among older men.7 In the Southeast, on the
contrary, increases in first admissions may be expected as the States expand
""Analysis of Racial Differences within Seven Clinical Categories of White and. Negro Mental Patients
in the Georgia State Hospital, 1923-32," Social Forces, 17 (December, 1938), 201-21 1.
7 Harold F. Dorn, op. cit., p. 14.
364 ALL THESE PEOPLE
their overtaxed facilities. The less exacting demands of the rural environ-
ment and the less exacting demands made on Negroes affect the criteria for
admission for two large groups in the population. As the environment be-
comes more complex, no doubt, more of these border line cases will be
hospitalized. The region accordingly may expect a rising rate of admission
until finally its facilities become stabilized at a fairly adequate level. By
that time many expect the anti-syphilis campaign will be felt in a lowered
incidence of mental disease due to that cause. We may expect also that
treatment including nicotinic acid and improved diet will lower the inci-
dence of mental disease due to pellagra. The Southeast has made some
beginnings in mental hygiene, and indications are that, as in public health,
its rural areas offer a frontier where such a program would pay high
dividends.
MORBIDITY RATES AND INCOME LEVELS
By the very nature of our data discussion of health and vitality is
forced to center on death rates. Actually the discussion should center to a
much greater extent on morbidity and disability rates. Man dies but once;
he may be ill many times. Unlike the number of deaths, the amount of
illness in this country has been almost anybody's guess. Among the most
extensive and best planned of recent researches along this line was the Na-
tional Health Survey of more than 2,300,000 urban people, undertaken
by the United States Bureau of Public Health in cooperation with the
W.P.A. during the winter of 1935-1936. If we can apply the result of
this survey to the whole country with due regard for age, sex, and resi-
dence, we can estimate that there are six million people who are unable to
work, go to school, or pursue their usual activities because of disease or
injury. For all ages this amounted to 4.5 percent of the total population.
The acute respiratory diseases, chiefly influenza and common colds, lead
all forms of illness with 47 cases per 1,000 persons, followed by chronic
diseases with 46 cases. Next in order come infections, accidents, diseases
and infections of the puerperal state, digestive ailments, and other causes.
The rate of loss or permanent gross impairment of members was found
to be 19.6 per 1,000 persons.8
The Southeast has proved especially vulnerable to diseases that rank
low in death-dealing power but high in drain on energy. Among these are
malaria, hookworm, and pellagra.9 While public health will finally have
to face the problem of the chronic diseases of age, it will continue to find
its greatest triumphs in preventing disabling morbidity among the young
and the mature. Here its task centers among those having the lowest in-
8 The Amount of Disabling Illness in the Country as a Whole, National Health Survey Bulletin I
(Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1938).
9 See Rupert B. Vance, Human Geography of the South, chaps. XV, XVI.
HEALTH AMONG THE ELDERS 365
comes, were it for no other reason than the fact that the higher income
classes are already provided with better medical services.
Actually we are aware of the extent to which those with low incomes
are subject to the greater incidence of morbidity. No specific data on the
Southeast are at hand but the fact of low income in the region makes the
national figures especially significant. The National Health Survey showed
that total disability per person per year ranged from 17.4 days for relief
cases, and 10.9 days for those with incomes under $1,000 to 6.$ for those
with incomes of $3,000 and over.10 This difference was highest in the age
group 25-64 years because it is found that occupational hazards fall heavi-
est on those in the unskilled and low wage trades.
The diseases and impairments were classified in broad groups and re-
lated to differential incidence on low income and relief families and those
with good incomes. Thus relief families had 8.75 times as much disability
for tuberculosis as families with $5,000 or more income per year. From
highest to lowest the ratios between the poor and the well-to-do were:
tuberculosis, 8.75; orthopedic impairment, 4.2 ; rheumatism, 3.69; diges-
tive diseases, 3.45 nervous diseases, 2.87; degenerative diseases, 2.685
other diseases, 2.61 j accidents, 2.21 ; respiratory diseases, 1.89; and infec-
tious diseases, 1.24. Public health with its greatest triumphs in the field
of infectious diseases has here given the greatest degree of equality of pro-
tection to the poor.
No adjustment of these ratios to prevailing distribution of income in
the Southeast would be possible without taking into account the differential
between urban and rural environment. Indications from comparative mor-
tality suggest that a low given income will account for or accompany a
higher degree of health in rural than in urban areas. How far this would
go in equalizing morbidity rates no one can presume to say in our present
lack of knowledge.
10
* Disability from Specific Causes in Relation to Economic Status, National Health Survey Bulletin 0
(Washington D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1938).
CHAPTER 24
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
What are the prospects of further improvement in the health and vitality
of our people? No one knows, but the opinion is expressed by Louis I.
Dublin that we may reasonably look forward to the time when life ex-
pectancy will reach 70 years. The attainment of this goal depends not only
on continued scientific advance but perhaps even more on a better distri-
bution and utilization of medical and health services, public and private.
The low level of death and disease attained by our upper economic classes
indicates what can be accomplished by the services already developed. It
is safe to assume that most of the class, regional, racial, and occupational
lags that we have discussed will have to be overcome for the population to
attain a life expectancy beyond seventy years. The Southeast owes its pres-
ent health advantages, such as they are, to its young population and its
rural environment. As the region gradually loses these characteristics, the
disadvantages due to the low health status of its Negro population and its
low income groups will become more important unless they are offset by
an increased use of all health services.
MEDICAL SERVICES AND THE FUTURE OF HEALTH
We have presented differences in death rates as representative of the
vitality of the people, but it is equally reasonable to assume that they repre-
sent differences in the distribution and quality of all medical and health
resources. We come now to ask how the Southeast compares with the Na-
tion in its use of medical services, hospital and public health facilities. Medi-
cal service is a purchasable commodity; and the level of medical science no
less than the distribution of doctors and hospitals depends to a large extent
on the economic level of the community.
In 1940 the Southeast (Figure 209) had the lowest proportion of doc-
tors in the Nation, one physician to every 1,101 persons as compared with
one for 751 in the Nation, one for 610 in the Northeast, and one for 626
persons in the Far West. The number of possible patients for every doctor
[366]
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH 367
Figure 209. Number of Inhabitants per Physician, United States, 1940
Source: American Medical Directory, 1940, p. 8; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1941, Table 6.
ranged from 492 in New York to 1,459 m Mississippi. In 15 States, mainly
in the South and West, the people had less than half the numerical chance
of getting a doctor if they needed one than in New York. Thirty-two
States fell below the national average of a practicing physician for every
751 persons. Southern States belong in the worst group with only Florida
v having as much as one physician for every 834 potential patients.
The distribution of hospitals reflects the level as well as the amount of
medical care available to the population. Adequate diagnosis and treatment
is often dependent upon facilities that can be provided only in hospitals.
Again the Southeast lags behind the Nation. The United States had in
1939 9.7 medical care beds for every 1,000 population. The States (Fig-
ure 210) ranged from 15.3 beds per 1,000 pe6ple in Massachusetts to 4.4
in Mississippi. Twenty-five States fall below the national average of 9.7
beds per 1,000 people. Virginia with 8.6 beds per 1,000, Louisiana with
7.8, Florida with 7.1, and Kentucky with 6.6 are the only States in the
Region able to climb above the rate of 6.1 common to the Southeast.
We need in this connection a measure of the extent to which people call
upon physicians in case of need. While no one figure will serve to measure
either the disposition or the economic ability to secure medical services, we
have selected the percentage of births attended by physicians. Again the
Southeast (Figure 211) secures the "least medical care. In 1940 physicians
368
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 210. Medical Care Beds per 1,000 Enumerated Population,
1940, United States, 1939
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics-Special Reports, Volume 13, No. .2.
attended QO.8 percent of all live births recorded in the United States. This
figure ranged from 99-3 percent in the Far West to only Ji* , percent in
the Southeast. The States range from all births attended by physicians in
Iowa and Nebraska to half, 50.2 percent, in Mississippi. In the rural areas
of the Southeast and the Southwest, white, as well as Negro and Mexican
births are often attended by midwives. So widespread is the practice that
the midwives are trained by the States in conferences and short courses and
thus recognized as a semi-official part of the medical force.
Attempts have been made to relate delivery by midwives to the higher
maternal mortality of certain areas. Local studies of counties in which mid-
wives have large practice often show higher rates of maternal deaths in
case of delivery by physicians. A selective factor operates here however,
for midwives tend to call in physicians on cases of prolonged and danger-
ous labor. In such cases both the birth and the maternal death would be
reported as attended by a physician. Less difficult cases are reported by
midwives.
In the record of the States a comparison of Figures 211 and 212 shows
that the care of physicians is closely associated with low rates of maternal
deaths In 1940 deaths of mothers from all puerperal causes (Figure 212)
ranged from 67.8 per io,000 live births in South Carolina to 17.2 in North
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Figure 211. The Percentage of Live Births Attended bv
Physicians, 1940
369
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Vol. 14, State Summaries,
1940.
Figure 212. Number of Maternal Deaths from All Puerperal Causes
per 1,000 Live Births, United States, 1940
Source: United States Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Volume 16, No. 52.
370
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 213. Maternal Mortality Rates per 10,000 Live Births,
United States and Southeast, 1927-1940
RATE PER 10,000
LIVE BIRTHS
100
r\=S==*=Jr\^z^
1934
li26 1928 1930
Source: United States Mortality Statistics, 1927-1936; Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics,
1927-1936; Reports State Board of Health, Georgia, 1927-1928, South Carolina, 1927. Vital Statistics
— Special Reports, Vol. 9, No. 26; Vol. 15, No. 33; Vol. 16, No. 52.
Note: Births and deaths not corrected for underregistration.
Dakota. The rate for the Southeast was 53.4, and every State in the region
except Kentucky exceeded the national rate of 37.6. The best record was
made by the Far West. With 99.3 percent of births attended by physicians,
the region had a maternal mortality rate of only 28.3 per 1 0,000. Both
the Nation and the region have shown an appreciable decline in maternal
mortality from 1927 to 1940 (Figure 213). The Southeast with all its
improvement has not bettered its relative position.
High maternal mortality indicates other conditions besides the lack of
medical care. The absence of a physician at such a crucial medical emer-
gency as childbirth may be taken as an index of various economic, racial,
educational, and community disabilities. The relation may further be
pointed out by referring to regional differences in the proportion of in-
fants born dead. Figure 214 shows that rates of stillbirths per 100 live
births vary from 1.9 in the Far West to 3.8 in the Southeast. The range
for States is from 1.7 for Washington to 5.2 for New York, with all the
Southeastern States except Tennessee and Arkansas exceeding the national
rate of 3.1. The rate of stillbirths, it will be observed, is related to the
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Figure 214. The Number of Stillbirths per 100 Live Births,
United States, 1940
37*
Source:
maries,
United States Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics-
1940.
-Special Reports, Volume 14, State Sum-
rate of maternal mortality. It is safe to assume that absence of a physician's
service at childbirth indicates the absence of prenatal care except such as
is furnished by public health agencies. The greater occurrence of still-
births in the Southeast may thus indicate a loss of life due to lack of medical
services over and above that expected because of differences in environment.
We have another difference that may be attributed to economic conditions.
INFANT MORTALITY-
-INDEX OF THE SOCIAL CONDITIONS FACING MEDICAL
SERVICES IN THE SOUTHEAST
For two reasons infant mortality ranks as especially important in the
general health picture of the Nation and the region. In the first place, in-
fant mortality is still the focal point at which the forces of death can be
attacked to the greatest advantage. Here death and disease yield more eas-
ily to the attack of education and medicine. Here the victory means more
for it adds decades rather than years to the span of useful life. Moreover,
areas with the highest infant deaths are the ones that have not yet ap-
proached the irreducible core of infant mortality. It is in these areas that
public health officials find that their well-planned efforts yield greater re-
turns at less cost.
372
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Its second importance is found in the fact that the infant mortality rate
serves as an index of the general cultural level. It reflects the community's
health status and general standard of living because it is so closely related
to the adequacy of sanitation, immunization, nutrition, and medical care.
Most of the causes of infant mortality are closely allied with social and
economic factors that impose conditions unfavorable for the survival of
the infant. Newsholme calls "infant mortality the most sensitive index we
possess of social welfare. If babies were well born and well cared for, their
mortality would be negligible."1
Among the chief causes of infant mortality are poor physical health of
the mother, inadequate or unskilled assistance at delivery, lack of post-
partum care of the infant, and the multiplicity of factors relating to physi-
cal environment, nutrition, and infection. If the general goal of a life ex-
pectancy of 70 years is to be reached, we must assume the long-time task
of bringing the worst areas of infant mortality into line with those of the
best. This involves more than medical progress. As much as any other fig-
ure the decline in the rate of infant mortality will follow the trend of cul-
tural progress and of developing standards of living. In 20 years this rate
in the United States has fallen from 85.8 to 475 in the region it fell from
87.4 to 57.4 (Figure 215).
Figure 215.
DEATH RATE
90
The Trend of Infant Mortality,* Expanding Registration
Area, United States and Southeast, 1920-1940
* Births and deaths not corrected for underregistration.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Volume 15, No. 11 and No. 14.
1 Newsholme quoted in Vital Statistics — Special Reports, I J, No. 38.
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
373
Variations in infant mortality among nations sufficiently advanced to
report vital statistics are still very great. The record of infant mortality the
world over ranged in 1936 from 31 deaths under one per 1,000 live births
in New Zealand to 252 in Chile, a figure more than eight times as large.2
In the same year the United States had an infant death rate of 57. The
regional variations in infant mortality in this country are greater than
differences in the standardized death rate. By 1940 there were in the
United States 47 deaths under one for every 1,000 live births, and the
rates by states (Figure 216) ranged from 32.9 in Oregon to 99.6 in New
Mexico. The extent of these variations may be indicated by pointing out
that they are greater than those between the Netherlands and Italy in
1936. In our country the best record was Shown by the Far West, with a
rate of 38.2, and the Middle States with a rate of 39.2. The worst records
were found in the Southwest with a rate of 67.5 and the Southeast with a
rate of 57.4. No State in the Southeast except Arkansas with an infant
death rate of 45.7 has a record as good as the Nation's. The high rates of
the Southwest are due to the excessive infant mortality among the Mexican
population of the region.
In order to determine whether the bad record of the South is due to its
Negro population we must look at the figures for the white population.
Figure 216. Infant Death Rates per 1,000 Live Births,
United States, 1940
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Vol. 1 6, No. 6.
2 Population Index, 6 (July, 194.0), p. 232.
374
ALL THESE PEOPLE
In addition, infant mortality varies so greatly by rural and urban residence
that an adequate racial and regional presentation will have to make use of
these breakdowns. In the period from 19 15 to 1940 white infant mortality
in the registration area fell from 99 to 43 j a decline of 57 percent. Negro
infant mortality in the same period fell 60 percent from 181 to 73, a figure
that is still more than two-thirds in excess of the white infant mortality
rate (Figure 217).
Figure 217. The Trend of Infant Mortality, White and Negro, Urban
and Rural,* Registration Area, United States, 191 5-1940
DEATHS UNDER ONE YEAR
PER 1,000 BIRTHS
190
^915 IS 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 3S 36 37 38 39 1940
* Rates based on births by place of occurrence.
Source: Vital Statistics — Special Reports, Volume 15, No. 30.
The lowest rates of white infant mortality are found in the Far West
and the Middle States, the highest in the Southwest and the Southeast
(Figures 218 and 219). The range of the States is shown by the fact that
New Mexico's rate of 95.9 is three times that of Oregon, which has a rate
of 32. Every State in the Southeast exceeds the Nation's mortality rate of
43.2 for white infants, except Arkansas which has the best record in the
region with a rate of 42.9, while Alabama with 51.9 has the worst. Total
Negro infant mortality in the region ranges from 87.7 in Louisiana to
54.4 in Arkansas, with eight States exceeding the national rate of 72.9 in
1940. In the Northeast and Middle States, Massachusetts, Delaware,
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
375
Maryland, West Virginia, and Missouri exceed the national rate. Western
States often show higher rates but the number of Negro births is so small
as to make the rates inconclusive.
Racial differences evident in infant mortality figures indicate the great
importance of social and environmental conditions. The accompanying
Table no shows the five leading causes of infant deaths by race. These
causes accounted for about 72 percent of all infant deaths during 1940. It
is evident that about half of our infant mortality can be attributed to con-
ditions related to the birth of the baby while the other half is due to ac-
quired causes and conditions. Premature birth is the most important single
cause of infant mortality. Whites, Negroes, and other races show approx-
imately the same infant death rates of around 23 per 1,000 from condi-
tions connected with birth. Death rates from so-called "acquired causes"
range from 20.4 for whites and 49.7 for Negroes to 70.5 for other races.
Table no. Infant Mortality Rates for Five Leading Causes of Death,
by Race, United States, 1940
Mortality rates (Deaths under 1 year per 1,000 live births)
Causes of death
Total population
White
Negro
Other races
47.0
13.7
4.7
4.4
22.8
7.4
3.5
13.3
24.2
43.2
13.2
5.0
4.6
22.8
6.5
3.1
10.8
20.4
72.9
17.4
2.1
3.7
23.2
13.6
5.5
30.6
49.7
91.0
14.0
3.2
3.3
20.5
22.5
11.7
36.3
Causes closely connected with environment .
70.5
Note: Number of births and deaths not corrected for underregistration.
Source: Bureau of the Census, Vital Statistics — Special Reports, 15, No. 38.
The early infant deaths have been defined as death under one month
of age and are reported in the vital statistics as neo-natal mortality. Under
present conditions this figure is sometimes accepted as representing the
irreducible core of infant mortality. This assumption, however, is not borne
out by recent trends. From 191 5 to 1935 the rate of neo-natal mortality
fell 27 percent in the registration areas, dropping from 44.4 to 32.4. Post
neo-natal mortality in the same period fell from $$.6 to 23.6, a decline of
57.6 percent. By 1940, neo-natal mortality was 28.8 and infant mortality
for the other eleven months of existence had fallen to 18.3. Evidence from
regional and racial variations indicate that both types of infant mortality
are subject to further reductions.
As we should expect from our study of the racial figures, regional vari-
ations are not so great in the field of neo-natal mortality. The range by
376 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figures 218-221. Infant Mortality Rates by Race and by Place
of Residence, United States, 1940
cities of 10,000 population or more areas of less than 10,000 population
WHITE RACE
Y///A QtMHTILI
I | towcrr
Source: See Figure 217.
States in 1940 ran from Oregon with the lowest rate of 23.1 to New Mex-
ico with a rate of 41.6. Only Arkansas in the Southeast fell below the
national rate. The Southwest with its Indian and Mexican populations
possessed the highest rate, while Maine, West Virginia, and Vermont in
the Northeast exceeded the national rate.
Rural-urban residence also influences the rate of infant mortality.
Early conditions were bad in cities, but changes from 191 5 to 1940 have
reversed the relative positions of infant mortality in urban and rural terri-
tory of the registration area. This is explained by the fact that urban in-
fant mortality declined from 103 to 44, a decrease of 57.3 percent, while
the rural rate was falling from 94 to 51, a decrease of only 45.7 percent.
In line with this trend, infant mortality is now lower in urban than in rural
areas for the Nation. Recent development in reporting deaths by place
of residence rather than occurrence emphasizes this trend more clearly.
In 1940, 39 white infant deaths per 1,000 live births occurred in the
Nation's cities of 10,000 or more as compared with 46.7 deaths in areas
of less than 10,000 population. Figures 218 to 221 serve to show the con-
trast between these two areas by race. By States the white urban rate ranged
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH 377
from 30.8 in Oregon to 83.3 in New Mexico. White rural rates show a
higher range, rising from a rate of 31.3 in Connecticut to one of 99.3 in
New Mexico. The distinctive characteristic of the Southeast is the high
rate of infant mortality in its cities as contrasted with the rate in the cities
of the Northeast and Far West. For the colored races in the Southeast
rural infant mortality still falls below urban (Figures 220 and 221). For
white infants in the region, rural mortality exceeds urban 50.5 to 44.5.
In both areas the Nation makes a decidedly better showing than the South-
west.
Among the colored population infant mortality is higher in rural than
urban areas by 75 to 71.6 for the Nation. Infant death rates for colored in
the urban Southeast are very high, ranging from 73.8 in Tennessee to
100.9 m Kentucky. Northern cities show much better records for the
Negro, few States having rates higher than 65. In their rural areas, prac-
tically all southern States show lower infant death rates. This contrast with
white infant mortality shows the lag in health service for the Negro. For
the Nation as a whole, figures indicate that the larger the city, the lower
the rate of infant deaths.
PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES
Public health within certain limits has long been regarded as a purchas-
able commodity. Infant mortality rates have proved especially susceptible
to reduction by well planned public health programs. Expenditures for
health purposes have greatly increased in recent years reaching $1.90 per
capita in 1940 for the country as a whole.3 Public health expenditures
ranged from $0.76 per person in Tennessee to $4.26 in Nevada (Figure
222). The highest expenditures were found in the Far West and in the
Northeast where only West Virginia fell as low as $1.99. States of the
Southeast spent least on public health. Six of these spent less than $1.00
per capita. Louisiana with $2.43 per capita was the only State in the region
to exceed the national average.
It is obvious that the public health achievements of many of our areas
are to be explained by the work done in municipal and county units. Fig-
ure 223 shows the distribution of county health units throughout the Na-
tion in 1 94 1. The map shows that the South is undertaking the task of
dealing with its health problem on a county-wide basis — the plan best
suited to rural areas. The extent of the health budgets and services offered
3 Only recently have we been able to estimate the amount of money spent on public health activities by
all the official agencies of the States. The 1940 study showed that some 35 separate categories of activities
in State governments had public health significance. Of the amount spent, over 81 percent came from State
revenues, almost 4 percent from local sources, 6.7 percent from Federal sources and 8 percent from other
sources. See Joseph W. Mountin and Evelyn Flook "Distribution of Health Service in the Structure of
State Government." Public Health Reports, Reprint 2306 (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing
Office, 1943), p. 4; Table I, pp. 9-13 s Table 3, p. 21.
378
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 222. Annual per Capita Expenditures by All Official State
Agencies for Health Activities, United States,
Approximate 1940 Data
I I UNDER $1.00
Sl.00-S1.74
2.50- 3.2S
3.25 AND OVER
Source: Public Health Service: Joseph W. Mountin and Evelyn Flook, "Distribution of Health Services
in the Structure of State Governments," United States Public Health Bulletin, No. 184 (1941),
Table 3, p. 21.
in our great metropolitan centers like Chicago and New York would also
help explain how they hold infant mortality below the figures of the
Southeast.
HEALTH AND MANPOWER
The extremes of the life span, infancy and old age, are its vulnerable
periods. For life's closing phases, however, there is no surcease from death
— only postponement. It is to the vigorous ages then that we must look for
the test of our health services. The relation of our health programs to indus-
trial manpower and military manpower is made clearer by reports of the
medical examinations of young men of draft age, 20-34. Since World War
I, death rates among this group have declined nearly 30 percent. An analy-
sis of Selective Service examinations up to March 1941 did not indicate a
similar improvement in the physical condition of young men. About 43
percent had been declared unfit for general military service as compared
with about 30 percent rejections in 1917-1918.4 While draft boards and
army physicians rejected 43 percent for full military duty, only 28 per-
4 George St. Perrott, "Physical Status of Young Men, 1918-1941," Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly,
XIX (October, 1941), 337-344.
THE TASK OF PUBLIC HEALTH
379
Figure 223. Counties with the Service of a Full-Time Public Health
Office, United States, June 30, 1941
Source: United States Public Health Service: F. W. Kratz, "The Present Status of Full-Time Local
Health Organization," Public Health Reports, Vol. 57, No. 6 (Feb. 6, 1942)1 PP- I95-96-
cent were considered unfit for any service. The remaining 15 percent were
classed as fit for limited service, indicating that many had defects which
could be remedied.
One striking difference in the type of defects sufficient to cause rejec-
tion was found. Rejections because of defective teeth were four times as
high in 1 940- 1 941 as in 191 7-1 9 18. Since army standards have not
changed since World War I, these findings suggest lack of dental care
for children and adolescents throughout the depression. Rejections for
respiratory diseases (largely tuberculosis) were only a little lower. Since
deaths from tuberculosis have been cut in half during that period, we con-
clude that better diagnosis prevails in present examinations.
In the main, however, important causes of rejection today are the same
as those in the draft of World War I. It is thus too early to say that the
health of young men has improved or deteriorated since 1918.5 The ex-
aminations of 1917-1918 provided materials for medical research for
twenty years. When our own period comes to be studied in detail, we will
be able to determine whether the southern population had experienced
differentials in health beyond those discussed in the preceding chapters.
8 Ibid. p. 343-
CHAPTER 25
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
The Southeast is likely to continue for some time as the source of a large
portion of the population renewals of this country. Moreover, all indica-
tions suggest that more of the South's population will move into the stream
of national development by migration to all parts of the Nation and to all
sectors of our economy. If they are trained to take their places in the on-
going social process, the Nation will benefit. If they are untrained, the
Nation will be faced with costs of relief and inefficiency that cannot be fully
met by retraining. The development of the Southeast, so necessary to a
balanced economy for our Nation, can best be furthered by an increase in
the skills and aptitudes of the region's population. What are the prospects
that the Southeast can perform the needed task of training its oncoming
population for the demands of the future? The region's educational status
and its capacity for educational and cultural development comprise an im-
portant part of the Nation's population problem both now and for the
future.
In presenting this analysis we have to depend largely on measures of
formal education in terms of the standards offered by the schools. Our use
of these statistics does not mean that we are committed to the type of edu-
cation now provided, nor does our use of figures on grades attained commit
us to the approval of the classifications now used by educational authorities.
It will be understood that this treatment omits detailed consideration (1)
of the curriculum, (2) of teaching methods, and (3) of school administra-
tion. We make use of the statistics of formal education simply as the best
available measures by which we can approximate the cultural and educa-
tional status of the people.
EDUCATIONAL STATUS OF THE PEOPLE
As our culture has grown more complex the type of education has
changed, and an evergrowing portion of the population has been subjected
[380I
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
38i
to longer periods of formal training. The transition from a frontier and
agrarian society to a highly technical civilization has not only made this
transition inevitable but has given the Nation the surplus wealth, public
and private, with which to implement the change. Furthermore, increased
urbanization has tended to make mass education possible by providing suffi-
cient density of population to insure local tax support and to allow for the
assembly of children in optimum numbers for instruction. For these
reasons, if for no others, our city schools have long been able to offer a
more adequate program than any but the most advanced rural schools.
Regional variations in educational attainments are still very great
within the United States. With the completion of the 1 940 Census we are
able for the first time to determine the number of school years completed
by the adult population by State and regional areas. Table m indicates
that exactly half of our population aged 25 and over have had no more
than 8.4 years of school and half have had more. Women have done better
than men, city dwellers than farm people, and whites than Negroes. White
men in cities attained the highest median years in school, 9.9; Negro men
on farms the lowest, 3.7 years. Women have gone farthest on farms and
in cities where white women have attained a median of 9.9 years as com-
pared with 9.4 for white males. In the country farm boys drop out of
school before girls, but in the cities a greater number of men go on to uni-
versity and professional training. Rural nonfarm people stand between
urban dwellers and farm people in this respect.
Table hi. Median Number of School Years Completed by Persons 25
Years Old and Over Classified According to Sex, Race, and
Residence, United States, 1940
All races
Native white
Negro
Class by residence
All
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
All
Male
Female
8.4
8.7
8.4
7.7
8.3
8.6
8.2
7.6
8.S
8.8
8.S
7.9
8.8
9.6
8.6
8.0
8.6
9.4
8.5
7.8
9.0
9.9
8.8
8.2
5.7
6.8
5.0
4.1
5.3
6.5
4.6
3.7
6.1
7.0
5.5
4.7
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Population, preliminary release Series P-10, No. 8.
Figure 224 indicates that the people of the Southeast are the poorest
educated in the country, having attained a median of 7.4 school years com-
pleted. The best educated people live in the Far West where exactly half
the adults have spent over 9.7 years in school. The States range from
Louisiana with a median of 6.6 years of schooling to Utah with 10.2 years.
Table 1 1 2 is designed to show the educational ranking of the States in
382
ALL THESE PEOPLE
terms of race, nativity, and urban, rural nonfarm and rural farm residence.
Best educated were urban native whites of the western States j least edu-
cated were the farm Negroes of the Southeast. Here the range was from
1 1.5 median years of schooling in Utah to 2.8 in Louisiana. Among native
whites in practically every State the urban population had received more
schooling than the rural nonfarm, and the rural nonfarm population in
turn more than the rural farm. The spread between urban and rural non-
farm was usually greater than the spread between the rural nonfarm and
the rural farm population. In the Northeast differences between native
whites in cities and on farms rarely exceeded one year of school; in the
Southeast it usually amounted to three. These differences may depend to
some extent on the migration of better educated youth to the cities. While
the foreign-born were less well educated than the native whites, they
showed less differences because of rural-urban residence.
In the Southeast the figures showed that Floridians had the highest
educational attainment, 8.3 median years of schooling. Mississippi has
carried furthest the education of her native whites whether living in city,
rural farm, or rural nonfarm areas, while Kentucky has done the most to
educate the Negroes in all three areas. The poorest showing in the Nation
was made by Louisiana in all classifications, ranging from 4.5 years for all
rural farm to 7.9 years of school for urban population.
Figure 224. The Median Number of School Years Completed by Persons
25 Years of Age and Over, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-10, No. 8.
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
Table 112. Median Years of School Completed for Persons 25
Old and Over, by Race-Nativity, Urban and Rural,
United States, 1940
(Median not shown where base is less than 100)
383
Years
Division and State
United States.
Northeast:
Maine
New Hampshire . .
Vermont
Massachusetts. . . .
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New York
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Delaware
Maryland
Dist. of Columbia
West Virginia ....
Southeast:
Virginia
North Carolina.
South Carolina .
Georgia
Florida
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Louisiana
Southwest:
Oklahoma . . .
Texas .......
New Mexico .
Arizona
Middle States:
Ohio
Indiana
Illinois
Michigan
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Missouri
Northwest:
North Dakota.
South Dakota.
Nebraska
Kansas
Montana
Idaho
Wyoming
Colorado
Utah
Far West:
Nevada
Washington.
Oregon
California. ..
All
classes
9.1
8.6
9.5
9.0
8.3
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.7
8.0
10.3
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.7
8.1
8.9
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.7
8.9
7.9
9.9
9.5
9.3
9.6
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.8
8.6
8.9
9.6
8.6
9.8
10.0
9.9
9.3
9.6
10. S
10.3
9.9
10.8
10. S
10.1
10.2
10. 5
Native
White
9.6
10.2
9.3
10.3
10.7
8.8
9.0
9.1
8.9
8.8
9.6
8.5
12.1
8.9
10.0
10.3
11.3
10.0
11.0
8.6
9.4
10.3
11.7
10.4
9.1
10.4
10.6
9.9
10.9
9.4
8.9
9.2
9.8
8.9
10.0
10.0
11.0
10.6
10.8
9.8
10.7
10.8
10.9
10.5
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.8
11.4
Foreign
born
White
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.8
7.4
6.8
7.0
7.4
7.1
6.1
6.5
6.4
8.3
6.9
8.3
10.5
8.9
8.8
8.2
7.8
8.4
8.3
8.4
8.4
7.3
8.3
4.8
6.4
6.5
6.9
7.1
7.5
7.6
7.3
7.7
7.8
7.5
7.8
7.9
7.7
7.3
7.8
8.2
7.6
7.6
8.0
7.9
8.2
8.2
8.0
Negro
6.8
8.2
8.1
8.1
8.2
7.6
7.5
7.8
7.2
7.1
6.6
6.1
7.6
7.4
5.9
5.8
4.8
5.1
5.8
6.7
6.2
5.6
5.8
6.3
5.2
7.6
6.8
7.4
7.6
7.4
7.6
7.7
7.6
7.6
8.4
8.0
7.4
8.6
8.0
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.9
8.5
8.4
7.6
8.2
8.4
8.5
Rural — Nonfarm
All
classes
8.4
9.0
8.9
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.7
8.7
8.4
8.1
8.6
8.2
7\6
7.6
7.6
6.9
7.5
7.9
7.7
7.8
7.3
8.0
7.8
6.5
8.2
8.7
7.5
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.3
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.7
8.3
8.4
8.6
8.8
8.7
8.7
8.9
9.3
8.7
9.7
9.5
8.9
8.9
8.9
Native
White
8.6
9.5
9.2
9.0
10.4
8.6
9.6
8.9
8.7
8.3
8.9
8.5
7l7
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.6
8.7
7.8
8.0
8.2
9.9
8.3
8.1
8.3
9.3
7.8
9.2
8.9
8.8
9.1
9.0
10.0
8.9
10.1
10.5
9.4
9.1
9.6
Foreign
born
White
7.3
7.8
7.7
7.9
7.5
7.0
7.4
7.7
7.5
5.2
7.9
8.0
8.7
11.7
10.3
10.1
8.6
7.8
8.9
8.0
8.5
7.8
6.1
7.2
2.9
3.8
4.8
6.9
7.6
7.2
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.7
7.7
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.2
7.7
7.9
7.4
7.0
7.6
Negro
5.0
7.6
6.9
7.4
7.9
7.2
6.7
6.6
5.6
5.6
6!i
4.8
5.0
3.8
4.0
4.3
5.9
5.4
4.5
5.0
5.3
3.5
6.3
5.7
7.1
7.3
6.9
7.3
6.6
7.0
7.5
7.8
7.1
6.5
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.5
7.5
7.5
8.2
8.0
7.9
8.1
8.0
7.5
7.3
Rural — Far
All
classes
7.7
8.7
8.7
8.5
8.6
8.2
8.3
8.3
7.9
8.0
7.7
7.4
7.3
6.6
6.6
5.5
6.0
7.1
7.2
7.0
6.1
6.2
6.9
4.5
7.7
7.5
6.7
7.2
8.2
8.2
8.1
8.1
7.9
8.0
8.4
7.9
7.9
8.1
8.3
8.4
8.3
8.6
8.6
8.3
9.0
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.3
Native
White
8.0
8.9
8.6
9.8
8.6
8.8
8.4
8.3
8.1
8.0
7.7
Y.i
7.3
7.2
7.7
7.2
7.8
7.2
7.3
7.1
8.1
7.4
6.3
7.7
8.0
7.2
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.2
8.3
8.0
8.1
8.4
7.9
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.4
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.5
9.4
9.0
8.6
8.6
Foreign-
born
White
7.2
7.0
7.3
7.1
5.7
7.3
7.6
7.7
8.8
9.7
9.2
8.1
7.7
7.2
7.6
5.4
6.8
2.7
7.1
2.4
3.2
3.9
6.8
7.2
7.6
6.5
7.1
7.3
7.8
7.4
7.3
7.6
7.5
7.5
7.7
7.8
7.5
7.2
7.5
7.4
7.8
7.9
6.9
Negro
4.1
2.2
7.'7
7.0
5.9
6.5
5.1
4.7
s'.i
4.1
4.4
3.5
3.5
3.8
5.2
4.9
3.7
4.3
4.6
2.8
6.0
5.3
6.2
6.6
7.2
7.5
6.5
7.4
7.1
y.7
4.9
7.7
i'.i
y.7
Y.6
6.'8
Source: Adapted from Henry J. Shryock, Jr., "1940 Census Data on Number of Years of School Completed," The Milbank
Memorial Fund Quarterly, XX (October, 1942), 378-379.
The 1940 Census asked no questions about illiteracy but reported ap-
proximately 2,800,000 people 25 years old and over who had not com-
pleted a single year in school. Almost 851,000 of these were in the South-
384
ALL THESE PEOPLE
east, giving the region an equivalent illiteracy rate of 6.2 percent as com-
pared with 3.7 percent for the Nation. Functional illiteracy is denned in
terms of inability to read and understand directions. On this basis both in-
dustry and the armed services in World War II discriminated against those
with less than five years of schooling. In the Southeast 26.7 percent of
those aged 25 and over had completed less than five years of school. In
the Northwest only 7.1 percent. The Nation had 13.5 percent in this cate-
gory (Figure 225). The States ranged from Iowa with only 4.1 percent
"functional illiterates," according to this definition, to Louisiana with 35.7
percent. Figure 226 compares the region and the Nation for the whole
educational range. At the other end of the scale the Nation had almost
three and a half million college graduates, 4.7 percent of its adults over
25 as compared with 3.5 percent in the Southeast. Figure 227, which pre-
sents in cumulative percentage the data of Figure 226, contrasts the trends
of educational progress. In the Nation three-fourths (74.8 percent) had
completed 7 to 8 years of school j in the Southeast hardly more than one-
half (55.4 percent). Almost one-fourth, 24.5 percent, of the Nation's
adults, but only 18.2 percent of the region's adult population, had com-
pleted four years of high school.
It is not difficult to show that the educational status of the American
Figure 225. Percentage of Persons 25 Years Old and Over Completing
Less than Five Years of School, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, 1940, Preliminary Release, Series P-10, No. 8.
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
385
Figure 226. Percentage Distribution of Population Twenty-Five Years
Old and Over by Grade of School Completed,
United States and Southeast, 1940
GRADE OF SCHOOL
COMPLETED
COLLEGE
C4
UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST
PERCENT
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Series P-IO, No. 6.
people has improved with each generation. To estimate the educational
status of the current school generation we can make use of enrollment fig-
ures. Census figures (Figure 227) indicated that only 39.7 percent of our
adult population have had any high school training — a figure that should
be compared with 62.5 percent of those aged 14-17 enrolled in high schools
in 1935-36 (Table 113). According to the census enumeration only 10.2
of our adults 25 and over have had any college training. In 1937-38, 14.4
percent of the population aged 19-22 years of age were enrolled in higher
institutions of learning. Figure 227 showed that 96.3 percent of the 1940
adult population had had some degree of elementary school up to the fifth
grade. If this figure is compared with the estimate that only 91.7 percent
of the children aged 5-17 were enrolled in public and private schools in
x935-36 (Table 114), it should be pointed out that many five year olds
do not attend kindergarten and that many pupils drop out of school be-
fore 17.
386
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 227. Percentage of Persons Twenty-Five Years Old and Over
Who Had at Least Completed Indicated Grades,
United States and Southeast, 1940
UNITED STATES
SOUTHEAST
NONE
5-6
GRADE SCHOOL
HI-H3
HIGH SCHOOL
GRADES OF SCHOOL COMPLETED
Source: See Figure 226.
Table 113. Number of Children 14-17 Years of Age, Inclusive, Number
of Secondary Pupils, and Percentage Ratio to Number of
Children, by Selected Years, United States, 1 889-1 890
to 1 935-1 936 (All Figures in Thousands)
Year
1890.
1900.
1910.
1920.
1922.
1924.
Number of
children 14-17
years of age*
5,355
6,134
7,215
7,773
7,988
8,238
Secondary
grade
enrollments**
203
519
915
2,200
2,873
3,390
Percentage
ratio to number
of children
3.7
8.5
12.7
28.3
36.0
41.2
Year
1926.
1928.
1930.
1932.
1934.
1936.
Number of
children 14-17
years of age*
8,533
8,894
9,341
9,547
9,442
9,565
Secondary
grade
enrollments*'
3,757
3,911
4,399
5,140
5,669
5,975
Percentage
ratio to number
of children
44.0
44.0
47.1
53.8
60.0
62.5
•Data for 1890 obtained from Fifteenth Census of the United States, 1930 Population II 593. Data for other years obtained
from "Population Trends and Their Educational Implications." Research Bulletin of the National Education Association, XVI
No 1 (January 1938), pp. 51-52. See also footnotes given on p. 50. Note especially that estimates for the years 1930 to 1935
are based on estimated births and for 1936 are based on the assumption of medium fertility and mortality and no immigration.
"Biennial Survey of Education, 1934-1936, II, Chap. II, pp. 55-57, Tables 1 and 2.
Source: Advisory Committee on Education, Education in the Forty-Eight States (Washington, D. C, 1939), p. 28.
It is evident that several factors enter into the composition of any index
of elementary education. States lacking kindergarten systems rank low
while States with a large proportion of retarded 17-year olds in schools
may rank the higher because of that negative condition. The Nation in
1935-36, it is estimated, had 91.7 percent of its children aged 5-17 enrolled
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
387
Table 114. Enrollments in Public, Private, and Parochial Elementary
and Secondary Schools as Percentage of Estimated Number of
Children 5-17 Years of Age, Inclusive, United States,
1935-1936*
State
United States*'
Massachusetts.. .
Nevada
California
Washington
New Hampshire .
Florida
Connecticut
Maine
Mississippi
New York
Oregon
Wyoming
Idaho
New Jersey
Colorado
Iowa
Nebraska ....
Indiana
Minnesota . . .
Delaware ....
Oklahoma . . .
Rhode Island.
Kansas
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania .
Missouri
Ohio
Vermont
Michigan. . . .
Illinois
Utah
Kentucky.
Montana. .
Tennessee.
Georgia. . .
Maryland.
South Dakota . .
Texas
Louisiana
West Virginia . .
North Carolina.
Arkansas
Arizona
Virginia
Alabama
North Dakota . .
South Carolina .
New Mexico . . .
Total
enrollments
29,005,873
946,060
19,978
1,209,559
354,249
109,914
302,700
384,318
196,233
615,710
2,681,301
201,152
58,321
124,286
934,245
252,813
588,118
334,205
752,417
612,559
53,827
666,614
153,948
443,145
692,398
2,306,871
787,901
1,467,469
79,562
1,103,387
1,580,864
142,229
669,807
121,835
664,646
757,637
352,260
163,695
1,412,963
526,254
458,305
895,727
467,601
104,271
604,168
690,728
165,119
483,227
106,531
Number of
children
31,618,000
900,000
19,000
1,152,000
352,000
110,000
393,500
390,000
199,800
628,000
2,750,000
207,000
60,000
128,000
965,000
265,000
618,000
354,000
798,000
650,000
57,300
710,000
164,000
473 ,000
740,000
2,500,000
860,300
1,619,000
88,000
1,225,000
1,756,000
160,000
764,100
139,000
764,000
875,000
412,000
193,000
1,672,000
625,000
546,000
1,069,000
560,000
125,000
724,000
835,000
202,000
594,000
131,000
Ratio of
enrollments
to number of
children
(percent)
91.7
105.1
105.1
105.0
100.6
99.9
99.8
98.5
98.2
98.0
97.5
97.2
97.2
97.1
96.8
95.4
95.2
94.4
94.3
94.2
93.9
93.9
93.9
93.7
93,6
92.3
91.6
90.6
90.4
90.1
90.0
88.9
87.7
87.7
'87.0
86.6
85.5
84.8
84.5
84.2
83.9
83.8
83.5
83.4
83.4
82.7
81.7
81.4
81.3
Public schools
Enrollments
26,367,098
773,239
19,720
1,140,427
335,750
78,441
385,763
320,888
166,507
608,036
2,288,042
188,361
56,384
121,045
809,078
239,747
538,003
307,975
691 ,444
549,129
46,100
658,049
121,555
414,275
577,343
2,006,097
711,256
1,289,337
68,060
963,527
1,327,269
140,863
628,101
113,762
653,211
748,537
298,157
153,163
1,364,627
465,594
449,732
888,775
460,869
99,796
592,038
677,062
155,035
477,915
99,207
Ratio to
number of
children
Cpercent)
83.4
85.9
103.8
99.0
95.4
71.3
98.0
82.3
83.3
96.8
83.2
91.0
94.0
94.6
83,8
90.5
87.1
87.0
86.0
84.5
80.5
92.7
74.1
87.6
78.0
80.2
82.7
79.6
77.3
78.7
75.6
88.0
82.2
81.8
85.5
85.5
72.4
79.4
81.6
74.5
82.4
83.1
82.3
79.8
81.8
81.1
76.8
80.5
75.8
Private and parochial
schools
Enrollments
2,638,775
172,821
258
69,132
18,499
31,473
6,937
63,430
29,726
7,674
393,259
12,791
1,937
3,241
125,167
13,066
50,115
26,230
60,973
63,430
7,727
8,565
32,393
28,870
115,055
300,774
76,645
178,132
11,502
139,860
253,595
1,366
41,706
8,073
11,435
9,100
54,103
10,532
48,336
60,660
8,573
6,952
6,732
4,475
12,130
13,666
10,084
5,312
7,324
Ratio to
number of
children
(percent)
8.3
19.2
1.4
6.0
5.3
28.6
1.8
16.3
14.9
1.2
14.3
16.0
3.2
2.5
13.0
4.9
8.1
7.4
7.6
9.8
13.5
1.2
19.8
6.1
15.5
12.0
8.9
11.0
13.1
11.4
14.4
0.9
5.5
5.8
1.5
1.0
13.1
5.4
2.9
9.7
1.6
0.7
1.2
3.6
1.7
1.6
5.0
0.9
5.6
/uF' £ 0ffice ?t Education Bulletin, 1937, No. 2 (Advance Pages) Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1934-1936
Washington: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1938), II, Chap. II, pp. 59, 61-62, 123-124. Population data as of July 1. 1936.
1 he United States figure includes data for the District of Columbia.
Source: Advisory Committee on Education, Education in the Forty-Eight States (Washington, D. C, 1939), p. 15.
in all schools. The figures ranged from practically complete enrollment in
Massachusetts to 81.3 percent enrollment in New Mexico (Table 114).
The Southeast and the Southwest lagged in proportions enrolled. Figure
228 thus gives a fair indication of the prospective educational status of the
population.
388
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 228. Percentage of Estimated Population 5-17 Years of Age
Enrolled in All Public, Private, and Parochial Schools,
United States, i935_I936
Source: See Table 114.
The increased importance of advanced training makes the proportion
enrolled in high school a valuable index of educational status. Beginning
at 3.7 percent enrolled in 1890, the curve of high school enrollment has
shown tremendous increase, the greatest coming in the decade 19 10-1920,
when it rose from 12.7 to 28.3 percent, more than doubling. Because of the
difficulty involved in estimating age groups by States during mid-census
years, figures are secured giving the proportion of total public school en-
rollment that are found in the secondary grades. Depending on age com-
position and the public attitude toward extended training, it is reasonable
to assume that, where high school opportunities are readily accessible, ap-
proximately 30 percent of total public school enrollment may be found in
secondary schools. In 1938 this condition was attained in six States — Ore-
gon, Washington, New York, Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Utah. The
average for all pupils was 24 percent (Figure 229) and in 23 States more
than 25 percent of the pupils were found in the four highest grades. States
with large rural and Negro populations had the lowest high school enroll-
ments. States of the Southeast were among the lowest, only North Caro-
lina reaching as high as 20.5 percent. The Far West led with 29.4 per-
cent of all public school pupils enrolled in high school; the Southeast
lagged with 16.2 percent.
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
389
Figure 229. Enrollment in High Schools as Percentage of Total En-
rollment in Public Elementary and Secondary Schools,
United States, 1938
Source: U. S. Office of Education, Statists of State School Systems, r 937-1938, Bulletin No. 2, 1 94°.
Chapter II, Figure 2, p. 1 6.
Out of every 1,000 pupils who entered the first year of high school in
1930-31 only 491 were graduated four years later. While to some this
trend may denote the high standards of the secondary schools, to others it
indicates low standard of communities which lack adequate schools and
fail either to motivate or to enable their young people to continue in high
school. In 1935-36 the enrollment in the last year of the Nation's high
schools was 54 percent of that in the first year. The figure ranged from
74.5 percent in Utah to 41.6 percent in Alabama (Figure 230). Again the
States of the West showed the best record and those of the Southeast the
poorest.
There are two bases it would seem to the community's ability to hold
its young in high school: one is to be found in the economic status of the
community, the other in the curriculum offered and the teaching methods
employed. Low economic status means both the inability of the commu-
nity to provide good schools and the inability of the individual pupils to
attend beyond minimum requirements. Communities of low economic
status thus tend to perpetuate themselves — a fact that will be shown later
in the analysis of rural areas in the Southeast. The other basis rests on
educational policy and results from the failure to adjust the high school
390
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 230. Percentage Ratio of Fourth Year to First Year High School
Enrollment, United States, 1935-1936
Source: Education in the Forty-Eight States, Advisory Committee on Education (Washington, D. C,
1939), P- 3°-
curriculum to the needs, interests, and capacities of the youthful popula-
tion it is to serve, as well as the failure to adopt newer practices based upon
scientific findings as to how people learn.
The task of education obviously is only begun with the enrollment of
the population of school age. Certain questions may serve to indicate how
well the school performs its task. Do pupils attend school regularly? For
how long a term does the school function? How well are teachers trained?
How well are the schools supported? The answers to these and related
questions will serve to make clear the relative position of the Southeast.
For the Nation in 1938 the average daily attendance was 85.8 percent
of the total enrollment in public schools. In this respect the States ranged
from 92.6 percent in Michigan to 76.9 percent in Arkansas (Figure 231).
The Southwest had the worst record with 79.6 percent, the Middle States
the best with 89.5 percent. Attendance in the Southeast was only 81.2 per-
cent of enrollment, and only in Kentucky and North Carolina did it exceed
the national average.
The average number of days attended by each pupil enrolled reflects
the length of school terms and is affected by weather, health, and transpor-
tation conditions. In 1938 the average number of days attended by pupils
enrolled in the Nation's public schools was 149.3, approximately 7.46
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
39i
Figure 231. Average Daily Attendance as Percentage of Total Public
School Enrollment, United States, 1938
Source: Statistics of State School Systems, 1937-1938, Bulletin, 1940, No. 2, Figure 2, p. 18.
Figure 232. Average Number of Days Attended by Pupils Enrolled
in Public Schools, United States, 1938
Source: Statistics of State School Systems, 1937-1938, Bulletin, 194.O, No. 2, Table 8, p. 84; Table II,
p. 84; and Table 13, p. 90.
392
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 233. Average Number of Pupils in Daily Attendance for Each
Member of the Instructional Staff in All Public Schools,
United States, 1938
Source: Statistics of State School Systems, 1937-1938, Bulletin No. 2,
p. 88; Table 17, p. 98.
1940,
Table 12,
months. Ohio led with 166.3 days an(^ Mississippi lagged with 109.7 days
(Figure 232). The Northeast and the Middle States had the same high
average of 159.3 days while the Southeast averaged only 13 1.2 days of
attendance. Since most schools in the Southeast have only eleven grades,
this means that high school graduates of the region have spent almost three
years (468 school days) less time in school than graduates in the North-
east and Middle States.
One important measure of the adequacy of the school system is the
average number of pupils to each teacher, the pupil-teacher ratio. Crowded
schoolrooms mean that teachers are forced to give less guidance and indi-
vidual attention to the pupils in their charge. In 1938 the Nation had 25.4
pupils in average daily attendance to each member of the instructional staff.
By States the pupil-teacher ratio ranged from 13.4 in South Dakota to 32.5
in North Carolina (Figure 233). The Northwest had the lowest ratio, 19.2,
the Southeast the highest with 27.9 pupils for every teacher. While the
economic explanation is valid here, some weight must be given to the trend
toward consolidation which has greatly reduced the number of small rural
schools in the region.
THE EDUCATION OF THE PEOPLE
393
Figure 234. Percentage of Elementary School Teachers with Three or
More Years of College Training, United States, 1 930-1 931
Source: Education in the Forty-Eight States, Advisory Committee on Education, Washington, D. C,
1939. P- 9i-
Figure 235. Percentage of High School Teachers with More than
Four Years of College Training, United States, 1 930-1 931
3E
Source: Education in the Forty-Eight States, Advisory Committee on Education, Washington, D. C,
1939, p. 92.
394 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Of equal importance is the graining of teachers in our elementary and
high schools. In 1930-31, 27.5 percent of the Nation's elementary teach-
ers had three or more years of college training. Figure 234 shows that by
States the range was from 63.6 percent in South Carolina to only 4.6 per-
cent in Maine. Surprisingly enough the New England States had the poor-
est record in this respect, while the Southeast made an especially good
showing. While Arkansas with 16.4 percent had the poorest record in the
region, seven of the eleven States were above the national average. It has
been suggested that the teaching profession in the region secures people of
higher qualifications because alternative employments for women are less
developed in the Southeast. In the training of high school teachers, how-
ever, the Southeast did not show so well. Of the Nation's high school
teachers, 25.3 percent had more than four years of college training (Figure
235). California led with 63.2 percent, but the next State, New Jersey,
had only 30.5 percent with graduate training. Mississippi ranked the low-
est with only 8.7 percent. States of the Southeast generally ranked low,
only Georgia exceeding the national average.
CHAPTER 26
EDUCATION AND CULTURAL ADEQUACY
In studying our cultural progress we should like to have some indication
of how well our institutions are functioning in the process of developing
human adequacy. How well are we now fulfilling the task of public educa-
tion in the Southeast? We need a measure, based on present performance,
of how far students may be expected to go in the public schools, and of how
well the schools are functioning in holding their students.
HOW FAR CAN OUR POPULATION EXPECT TO GO IN SCHOOL?
It is possible so to manipulate our available data as to determine how
far in school, on the basis of present performance, our current school gene-
ration may be expected to go. In its broad outline this is a method of cal-
culating grade expectancy and is comparable to the method used by life
insurance people in computing the life expectation of a population on the
basis of its present performance in births and deaths. It is not our purpose
to discuss in detail the methods here worked out except to say that while
the grade at which students drop out of school may be compared to deaths
at specific ages, the progression from grade to grade cannot be compared
to survival rates simply because of the numbers of retarded students who
are repeating grades. Nobody in a life table repeats a year of life, no mat-
ter how misspent. Accordingly the icy perfection of actuarial science will
not apply here, for our advancement rates from grade to grade are only
roughly comparable to the survival rates of the life table.
Nor can we depend on accepting total numbers in the first grade as
equivalent to births in the life table. Statistics of the Office of Education
unfortunately give us total numbers in grade one, not the original contin-
gent entering the first grade during any specified year. The first grade is
more than twice as full as it should be for our purpose, and the drop from
first to second grade represents not school mortality so much as the effect
of retardation and repetition of the grade. With these warnings by the
[395 ]
396
ALL THESE PEOPLE
way we shall discuss the results of measuring the average school life and
the grade expectation of our school population.
We have discussed census returns on the number of years spent by
adults in school. Our present problem, however, is to estimate the number
of years that will be spent in school and the grade that will be attained by
a group of children entering the first grade and going through school at
present school advancement and mortality rates. Table 115 and Figure
236 present the estimated enrollment in each grade in 1935 and the ad-
vancement rates from one grade to another in the spring of 1936. The
advancement rate from first to second grade was found by taking the ratio
of children in the second grade in 1936 to those who were in the first grade
in 1935, and so on. Thus an enrollment of 786,807 white pupils in the first
grade throughout the Southeastern States in 1935 gave an enrollment of
522,282 pupils in the second grade in 1936 and an advancement rate of
66 percent (Table 115). This procedure is followed for each grade. The
absence of an eighth grade in many schools explains the low advancement
rate from the seventh to eighth grade as well as the fact that for both races
the advancement rate from the eighth grade to the first year of high school
exceeds 140 percent. Interpolation of the figures between the seventh
grade and first year high school gives much more reasonable advancement
rates, 70 percent for Negro and 89 percent for white pupils (Figure 236).
On the basis of 1935-36 enrollment figures (Table 115) we estimate
Table 115. Estimate of Public School Enrollment by Race, Southeast,
Under Assumption of Yearly Advancement Rates as of 1 935-1 936
All schools
White schools
Negro schools
Grade
Enrollment
Advancement
rate
Enrollment
Advancement
rate
Enrollment
Advancement
rate
1st
1,452,585
804,286
759,333
717,663
635,196
569.178
481,494
234,832
356,535
287,413
226,134
190,293
55.37
94.41
94.51
88.51
89.61
84.59
48.77
151.82
80.81
78.68
84.15
786,807
522,282
506,770
492,023
451,480
423,895
372,604
194,238
298,083
245,889
195,236
166,712
66.38
97.03
97.09
91.76
93.89
87.90
52.13
153.46
82.49
79.40
85.39
665,778
282,004
252,563
225,640
183,716
145,283
108,890
40,594
58,452
41,524
30,898
23,581
42.36
2nd
89.56
3rd
89.34
4th
81.42
5th
79.08
6th
74.95
7th
37.28
8th
143.99
I
71.04
II
74.41
Ill
76.32
IV
Total
6,714,942
4,656,019
2,058,923
Estimated number all pupils ad-
mitted to first grade: 1,007,172
Average school-life expectation:
6.67 years
Average grade expectation: 5.55
grades
Estimated number white pupils
admitted to first grade: 607,217
Average school-life expectation:
7.67 years
Average grade expectation: 6.72
grades
Estimated number Negro pupils
admitted to first grade: 399,955
Average school-life expectation:
5 . 15 years
Average grade expectation: 3.86
grades
Source: Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems, 1935-1936, Bulletin No. 2, 1937. and Bulletin No. 2, 1935; Sta-
tistics of the Education of Negroes, Bulletin No. 13, 1938.
EDUCATION AND CULTURAL ADEQUACY 397
Figure 236. Estimate of Public School Enrollment Under Assumption
of Yearly Advancement Rates and of Optimum Advancement
Rates as of 1935- 1936, Southeast, by Race
"MITE ENROLLMENT
• — » MOW ENROLLMENT
~*— — — — WHITE OPTIMUM ADVANCEMENT
— — - — — NEGRO OPTIMUM ADVANCEMENT
Ol i 1 1 1 J 1 L.
-I ' '
» 12
Source: See Tables 115 and 118.
that white children entering school in 1935 in the Southeast will remain in
school an average of 7.67 years; Negro children, 5.15 years.1 The average
school-life expectation of white children the country over is much higher,
9.24 years (Table 116). As Table 116 indicates, advancement rates are
also higher. Following the methods developed in this connection, we esti-
mate an average grade expectation in the Southeast of 6.72 grades for
white pupils and 3.86 grades for Negro pupils (Figure 237). This means
that the average child in the Southeast can expect on the basis of conditions
m 1935-36 to reach only 5.6 grades as compared with the 7.7 grades
attained by the average child in the United States.2 (See Tables 115 and
116.) For all the 18 States maintaining separate schools for Negroes we
estimate expectancies only slightly higher than those in the Southeast,
5.43 school years and 4.18 grades (Table 116). Undoubtedly this figure
would be raised if we could include Negro pupils in all schools.
1See Rupert B. Vance and Nadia Danilevsky, "School Life Expectation and Marriage Expectation: An
Attempt to Apply the Technique of Life Table Construction to Other Fields of Sociology," Proceedings
of Conference on Analyses and Interpretation of Social and Economic Data (N. C State College, Raleigh,
N. C., 1941), pp. 72-78 for discussion of method.
It will be noted that these figures are lower than the median grades attained by those aged 25 and
over as reported by the 1940 Census. Our data end with the public schools while the census medians in-
clude college plus private schools. In addition, many feel that the census returns may have been over-
optimistic.
398
Table
ALL THESE PEOPLE
116. Estimate of Public School Enrollment by Race, United
States, Under Assumption of Yearly Advancement Rates
as of I935-I936
Grade
All schools
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
I
II
Ill
IV
Total
Enrollment
3,623,589
2,557,589
2,488,534
2,420,846
2,322,560
2,213,864
2,096,751
1,670,062
1,901,366
1,610,457
1,273,388
1,102,627
25,281,633
Advancement
rate
70.58
97.30
97.28
95.94
95.32
94.71
79.65
113.85
84.70
79.07
86,59
Estimated number all pupils ad-
mitted to first grade: 2,928,913
Average school-life expectation:
8.63 years
Average grade expectation: 7.74
grades
White schools
Enrollment
2,858,556
2,222,241
2,183,434
2,144,303
2,092,144
2,026,398
1,949,871
1,614,923
1,812,107
1,545,762
1,224,867
1,065,625
22,740,231
Advancement
rate
77.74
98.25
98.21
97.57
96.86
96.22
82.82
112.21
85.30
79.24
87.00
Estimated number white pupils
admitted to first grade: 2,460,937
Average school-life expectation:
9.24 years
Average grade expectation: 8.28
grades
Negro schools*
Enrollment
765,033
335,348
305,100
276,543
230,416
187,466
146,880
55,139
89,259
64,695
48,521
37,002
2,541,402
Advancement
rate
43.83
90.98
90.64
83.32
81.36
78.35
37.54
161.88
72.48
75.00
76.26
Estimated number Negro pupils
admitted to first grade: 467,976
Average school-life expectation:
5.43 years
Average grade expectation: 4.18
grades
•Negro achools of 18 States maintaining separate schools for the Negro and white races (Southeast, Delaware, District of Colum-
bia Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Maryland ,and West Virginia).
Sou'rce: See Table 115.
Figure 237. School Life and Grade Expectation for White and Negro
Pupils Entering Public Schools Under the Actual and Optimum
Advancement Rates as of 1936, Southeast
NUMBER OF YEARS SPENT IN SCHOOL
NUMBER OF 0RA0ES COMPLETED
Source: See Tables 115 and 118.
The first year of school life is the most hazardous, suggesting a com-
parison with the effects of infant mortality on the life table. The great
hazard here, however, is retardation rather than school mortality. The
situation is indicated when we contrast actual grade enrollment in the
EDUCATION AND CULTURAL ADEQUACY 399
Southeast in 1929-30 with the 1930 Census figures on school attendance
by ages (Table 117). The actual enrollment here includes the public and
private schools in the region. Theoretically complete enrollment is based
on the optimum assumption that all children 6-17 are enrolled in school,
each in the grade corresponding to his age.
Table 117. Population and School Attendance by Single Years from
6 to 171 Years Inclusive, and Enrollment in Public and Private
Schools Combined, by Grades, Southeast, 1 929-1 931
j
Population i
School attendance
Grade
School enrollment
Age
Number
Percent of
Popu'ation
Number
Percent of
population
638,904 1
614,661 i
648,554
609,400 i
626,225
544,672 ;
593,317
545,971 1
577,132 |
547,147 I
579,738 !
556,131
319,373
496,084
572,679
555.817
585,921 :
513,626 :
553,131
501,544 j
494,363
412,345
341,098
235,997 :
50.0
80.7
88.3
91.2
93.6
94.3
93.2
91.9
85.7
75.4
58.8
42.4
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
I
II
III
IV
1,588,972
832,237
772,915
711,221
598,794
514,403
415,133
207,522
275,899
207,779
155,555
120,304
248.7
13S.4
119.2
116.7
95.6
94.4
70.0
38.0
47.8
38.0
26.8
21.6
8 "
9 "
10 "
11 "
12 <"
13 "
14 : "
15 "
16 "
17 "
9,221,126
5,581,978
60.5
6,400,734
69.4
ementary
1929-1930).
Note: Enrollment in public schools for 1929-1930; in private schools— for high school, the same year, for the grades of el
school enrollment as of 1930-1931 (enrollment by grades for elementary private schools could not be obtained for 19i7-, - nji
School attendance as given here is not the "average daily attendance" computed in the School Reports of the Office of Education
but is the term used 1 y the Bureau of the Census for school enrollment, i.e. "the school-attendance tabulation is based on the
replies to the enumerator s inquiry as to whether the person had attended school or college of any kind since September 1. 1930 "
(bee Introduction to Vol. Ill, Population, Census of 1930). .-,.
Source: Fifteenth i Census of the Unfed States \1930, Population, II Chap. 12, Table 21; Office of Education, Statistics of State
School Systems, Bulletin No. 20, 1931; Enrollment m Private Schools, Bulletin, No. 2, 1933.
Enrollment in the first grade is thus shown to be 249 percent of the
six-year-old population (Table 117). The cumulative effect of retardation
extends through the fourth grade where actual enrollment is 116.7 percent
of theoretically complete enrollment. Until the incidence of retardation
is lessened, the decline in births will show less effect on first grade enroll-
ment than is generally expected. The reciprocal effect of retardation is
further augmented by school mortality in the upper grades. From grade
five to the fourth year in the high school the ratio of actual to theoretically
complete enrollment progressively falls from 95.6 to 21.6 percent (Fig-
ure 238).
When the school attendance returns of the census are checked with the
size of the school population in the Southeast, it is found that only 50 per-
cent of the six-year olds, 81 percent of the seven-year olds, and 88 percent
of the eight-year olds were actually attending school in 1930 (Table 117,
Figure 239). These figures furnish additional evidence of the extent to
which the large enrollments in the lower grades result from retardation.
The highest proportion of attendance is reached by the eleven-year olds,
94-3 percent. Here also actual enrollment is 94.4 percent of theoretically
400
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 238. Complete Enrollment by Grades Contrasted with the
Actual Enrollment, Southeast, 1929-1931
800
400 0 0
THOUSANDS OF PUPILS
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Source: See Table 117-
complete enrollment (Table 117). For the Negroes actual enrollment ex-
ceeds the enrollment that would prevail under optimum entrance and ad-
vancement rates until beyond the fourth grade ; for the whites, until beyond
the fifth grade. .
That a potential high school population of 556,000 in 1930 yielded
only 120,000 enrollment in the last year of our high schools may offer con-
solation to those who feel that too many in our population are attempting
to go on to higher education and professional and white-collar jobs. In the
Southeast, it hardly seems that this point has yet been reached.
No one, however, can find consolation in that bottleneck of our educa-
tional system, the first grade. Here total enrollment exceeds theoretically
complete enrollment by 149 percent. The Southeast may be a region of
white sixth graders and colored third graders, but for those who clear the
hurdle of the first grade it becomes a region of white eight and a half grad-
EDUCATION AND CULTURAL ADEQUACY
40 1
Figure 239. Population of School Age and School Attendance,
Children, Age 6-13, Southeast, 1 929-1930
THOUSANDS
600-
500-
400-
300-
200-
100
POPULATION
6 7
Source: See Table 117.
AGE
ers and colored fifth graders. The transition from the first to the second
grade is thus shown to be the most vulnerable link in our educational sys-
tem. The youth problem of the future is brewing here. From grade one
through grade four the actual enrollment in our schools exceeds the equiva-
lent age groups in the population. To what is this situation due? In set-
ting our school entrance age at six, have we ignored all the facts of indi-
vidual differences and placed on the shoulders of some children greater
burdens than they can bear? Have we overemphasized certain technical
aspects of our approach to the child? Do we place too much emphasis on
the ability to read, or do we, because of large classes and inadequate per-
sonnel, fail to teach the minimum amount of reading skills required?
Here it seems is the chance for research that should mean much to our
future cultural development. It has taken compulsory education to bring
these conditions to our notice, and it will require extended social analysis
to explain them. To what extent are they to be assigned to the incidence of
hereditary deficiencies on the part of certain elements in our population, to
the effect of social and cultural isolation on certain groups, or to defects in
the school system especially in the first grades? Undoubtedly all these fac
402
ALL THESE PEOPLE
tors are present; and thus need exists for cooperation between the student
of individual differences and abilities, the student of community and neigh-
borhood groups, and the technical student of the learning process as dis-
played in the small child. Social and educational analysis could perform
no greater task than to help determine how these many factors operate to
retard the cultural development of the Southeast.
Table 118. Estimate of Public School Enrollment Under Assumption
J of Yearly Advancement Rates and of Optimum Advancement
Rates, by Race, Southeast, 1935-1936
Enrollment in white schools
Enrollment in Negro schools
Grade
Actual
rates
Optimum
rates
Percentage
difference
Actual
rates
Optimum
rates
Percentage
difference
4,656,019
786,807
522,282
506,770
492,023
451,480
423,895
372,604
194,238
298,083
245,889
195,236
166,712
7,223,594
607,217
606,185
605,154
604,125
603 ,098
602,314
601,531
600,749
599,968
599,188
597,750
596,315
55.1
-22.8
16.1
19.4
22.8
33.6
42.1
61.4
209.3
101.3
143.7
206.2
257.7
2,058,923
665,778
282,004
252,563
225,640
183,716
145,283
108,890
40,594
58,452
41,524
30,898
23,581
4,735,389
399,955
399,075
398,197
397,321
396,447
395,495
394,546
393,599
392,654
391,712
389,362
387,026
130.0
Elementary:
1st
-39.9
2nd
41.5
3rd ;
57.7
4th
76.1
115.8
172.2
5th
6th
7th
262.3
8th
869.6
High School:
571.8
843.3
1160.2
1541.3
-.-
Note: Optimum advancement rates are survival rates for stationary populations computed for the Southeast as of 1919-1931.
Estimated number of white pupils admitted to white schools in 1935 was 607 ,217; admitted to Negro schools, 399,955
Source: Office of Education, Statistics of Slate School Systems, Bulletin No. 2, 1935 and 1937; Statistics of Negro Education, Bul-
letin No. 13, 1938; all sources necessary for the computation of life tables.
These figures on actual conditions lead us to inquire as to what we
might expect under the assumption of optimum or ideal conditions. Op-
timum conditions would assume school facilities ample to provide for all
pupils and an adjustment of school programs to pupils' capacities and in-
terests so adequate that none would drop out or be retarded in his progres-
sion from grade to grade. Thus, optimum advancement rates assume no
child's dropping out of school for reasons other than death, and no repe-
tition of grades during the whole school-life span. Table 1 1 8 and Figure
240 give the comparison of results obtained. If we assume 607,217 white
children entering school in both cases, we obtain a total enrollment of
4,656,019 pupils under actual conditions and 7,223,594 pupils under
"optimum" conditions, or an increase of 55.1 percent. A similar compu-
tation shows an increase of 130 percent in the enrollment of Negro stu-
dents under optimum conditions.
The grade expectation for white and Negro pupils has been presented in
Figure 237. The upper bars show the optimum advancement rates and
grade expectation for both races. Since survival rates for whites and Ne-
EDUCATION AND CULTURAL ADEQUACY
403
Figure 240. Enrollment by Grades in Public Schools on the Basis of
Actual Advancement Rates as of I936 and Optimum
Advancement, Southeast, By Race
ENROLLMENT RESULTING FROM
I I ACTUAL RATES
OPTIMUM RATES
Source: See Table 118.
groes do not differ much during the period 6 to 17 years of age, the results
obtained for the school life expectation of each race were so close (11.9 for
white children as against 1 1.8 for Negroes) that one bar showing the op-
timum grade expectation of it. 8 for both races is sufficient. The remaining
bars indicate the actual expectation for white and Negro children on the
basis of advancement rates in 1936.
Many inadequacies found in our schools, in communities, and among
pupils and their families furnish reasons why this optimum is not attained.
Thus communities are not financially able to provide full school facilities^
many families suffer handicaps of isolation and inadequate economic re-
sources that keep children out of school ; school curricula are not adjusted
to pupils' interests and capacities. In planning for long-time cultural de-
velopment, only one of these handicaps should be regarded as definitely
prohibitive. That is the incapacity of those children who are so mentally
retarded as to be incapable of carrying through the school program. Even
here feebleminded children, whatever their true proportion in the school
population may be, are capable of profiting from especially designed pro-
grams for backward children.
No one knows what an optimum educational program would demand
of the people. It is worth while, however, to estimate the number of addi-
tional teachers we would need under the assumption of optimum enroll-
ment in the region. On the basis of pupil-teacher ratios in 1936 the South-
east (Table 119) would need 55,013 additional teachers, an increase of 28
404
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 119. Actual Number of Teachers in Public and Private Schools
and Estimated Number Under Assumption of Actual Pupil-
Teacher Ratio and Optimum School Enrollment,
Southeast, 1935-1936
All teachers
White teachers
Negro teachers
Schoo' grades
Actual
number
Estimated
number
Difference
Actual
number
Estimated
number
Difference
Actual
number
Estimated
number
Difference
Elementary . . .
Secondary
144,865
48,758
130,224
118,412
-14,641
69,654
104,232
43,358
94,993
85,297
-9,239
41,939
40,633
5,400
35,231
33,115
-5,402
27,715
193,623
248,636
55,013
147,590
180,290
32,700
46,033
68,346
22,313
Note: "Optimum" school enrollment: admission to first grade- — 100 percent of six-year old children, as estimated in 1935; rates
of advancement from one grade to another based on survival rates of stationary population, as computed for the Southeast by
race for 1929-1931. Pupil-teacher ratio computed for white schools on the basis of combined enrollment and number of teachers
in public and private schools in 1935-1936; for Negro schools pupil-teacher ratio computed on the basis of public schools only
because of the absence of complete data on Negro private schools.
Source: Biennial Survey of Education in the United States, 1934-1936; Abridged Life Tables for the White and Colored Popula-
tion of the Southeast, 1929-1931.
percent. Improved advancement in the lower grades means that we would
need 14,641 fewer elementary teachers j while a 143 percent increase in
high school enrollment would call for 69,654 additional secondary teach-
ers. In the lower grades white schools would lose 9,239 elementary teach-
ers; Negro schools, 5,402 teachers. In the secondary grades, white high
schools would require 41,939 new teachers; Negro schools, 27,715 new
teachers.
These figures represent the direction of our population trends and our
cultural development. Fewer children entering the early grades, fewer
children suffering the handicaps of retardation will be met by the increasing
trend toward secondary education for all the people. This trend which
has developed slowly but surely is already being felt in the teacher train-
ing program of the region. In time to come it may involve the retraining
of elementary school personnel for high school teaching.
CHAPTER 27
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION
We are hardly in position to estimate what the Southeast can do in the
future until we see what it has done in the past. The present low educa-
tional status of the Southeast may be discouraging, but it is not the result
of lagging behind the rest of the country in recent years. It comes, in fact,
at the close of a period in which the region has made the most rapid educa-
tional progress. The region started from the lowest position, and since
1870 has made heroic efforts to close the gap in its public education pro-
gram, efforts that now have a history extending backward for almost sev-
enty years.
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT AND SCHOOL POPULATION
There are, no doubt, several ways in which we might estimate the meas-
ure of success which has attended these efforts. One such method is shown
in Figure 241 (Tables 120 and 121), where the increases in school en-
rollment from 1870 to 1938 are set against the background of the region's
increase in population aged 5-17. For the Southeast the task of closing the
gap between the population ready for school and the population enrolled
has been an arduous one, but the slant of the upward lines indicates that
it has been accomplished to a greater extent than could have been expected
in 1870. The campaign for universal education in the three decades from
1870 to 1900 produced the most rapid acceleration in the upward trend.
While the school population (5-17) of the Southeast grew from 3.35 to
6.19 millions, public school enrollment climbed from 1.1 million to 3.9
million (Tables 120 and 121). Nevertheless, the proportion of the re-
gion's population in school, 63.1 percent, was only slightly higher in 1900
than the Nation's in 1870. Rapid gains continued until 1938 when the
region's public and private schools contained 6.7 million pupils out of a
possible 7.7 million — a ratio of 87.5 percent as compared with 93.1 percent
for the Nation (Table 123).
[ 405 1
406
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 120. Estimates of School Population by Race, United States
and Southeast, 1 870-1938
tion
United States
Southeast
Year and school popula
All
White
Negro
All
White
Negro
Population (5-17 inclusive
):
1870
12,055,443
10,528,271
1,527,172
3,349,782
2,034,413
1,315,369
1880
15,065,767
12,956,717
2,109,050
4,270,119
2,447,787
1,822,332
1890
18,543,201
16,032,354
2,510,847
5,357,495
3,182,457
2,175,038
1900
21,404,322
18,699,180
2,705,142
6,186,525
3,849,470
2,337,055
1910
24,239,948
21,308,829
2,931,119
6,655,714
4,207,341
2,448,373
1920
27,728,788
24,829,542
2,899,246
7,196,088
4,725,464
2,470,624
1930
31,571,322
28,668,665
2,902,657
7,714,093
5,280,512
2,433,581
1932
32,031,549
29,127,849
2,903,700
7,776,200
5,346,500
2,429,700
2,426,400
1934
32,392,749
29,488,649
2,904,100
7,825,000
5,398,600
1936
31,618,000
28,672,000
2,946,000
7,831,600
5,379,100
2,452,500
1938
30,789,000
27,800,700
2,988,300
7,660,726
5,182,126
2,478,600
Population (5-13 inclusive
):
1870
1880
1890
8,757,952
11,124,402
13,188,548
2,451,793
3,258,806
3,875,019
11,369,670
1,818,878
2,298,509
1,576,510
1900
15,287,527
13,335,616
1,951,911
4,282,101
2,591,636
1,690,465
1910
17,019,650
14,902,413
2,117,237
4,638,215
2,884,496
1,753,719
1920
19,992,947
17,919,881
2,073,066
5,199,567
3,426,578
1,773,049
1930
22,230,101
20,197,085
2,033,016
5,416,123
3,713,618
1,702,505
1932
22,553,414
20,519,662
2,033,752
5,459,380
3,758,590
1,700,790
1934
22,744,049
20,710,017
2,034,032
5,493,696
3,795,216
1,698,480
1936
22,259,000
20,195,680
2,063,320
5,498,300
3,781,500
1,716,800
1938
21,676,000
19,599,500
2,076,500
5,377,826
3,643,026
1,734,800
Population (14-17 inclusive):
1870
1880
1890
3,297,491
3,941,365
5,354,653
897,989
1,011,313
1,482,476
4,662,684
691,969
883,948
598,528
1900
6,116,795
5,363,564
753,231
1,904,424
1,257,834
646,590
1910
7,220,298
6,406,416
813,882
2,017,499
1,322,845
694,654
1920
7,735,841
6,909,661
826,180
1,996,521
1,298,886
697,575
1930
9,341,221
8,471,580
869,641
2,297,970
1,566,894
731,076
1932
9,478,135
8,608,187
869,948
2,316,820
1,587,910
728,910 '
1934
9,648,700
8,778,632
870,068
2,331,304
1,603,384
727,920
1936
9,359,000
8,476,320
882,680
2,333,300
1,597,600
735,700
1938
9,113,000
8,201,200
911,800
2,282,900
1,539,100
743,800
Note: Figures for the Negro population include all colored prior to 1900 in accordance with the Bureau of Education Reports.
The Negro population of the United States given here includes only 17 States prior to 1900 and 18 States 'with addition of
Oklahoma) thereafter; the remaining Negro population enrolled in unsegregated schools is included with the white.
Population estimates for the whole group (5-J7) is given for all years in Statistics of State School Systems; estimates for the
subgroups (5-13 and 14-17) were not given for all years; in some cases, they were estimated by applying percentages computed
on the basis of the nearest available Census enumeration.
Source: Reports of the Commissioner of Education, 1871 (Report, 1871); 1879-1880 (Reports, 1880-1881); 1889-1890 (Report,
1890, I and II); 1899-1900 (Report, 1900, I and II); 1909-1910 (Report, 1911, II)— U. S. Department of the Interior, Office of
Education, Statistics of State School Systems. Biennial Survey of Education, 1919-1920 (Bulletin No. 9, 1922); 1929-1930
(Bulletin No. 20, 1931); 1931-1932 (Bulletin No. 2, 1933); 1933-1934 (Bulletin No. 2, 1935); 1935-1936 (Bulletin No. 2, 1937)—
U. S. Department of the Interior, Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems. Biennial Survey of Education, 1937-
1938 (Bulletin No. 2, 1940, Chap. 2)— Federal Security Agency, U. S. Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems.
Also Statistical Abstracts of the United States (1901-1940), chapters on Education. For special sources on Negro education:
Reports of the Commissioner on Education, 1889-1900 (Report, 1890, II, p. 2063); 1899-1900 (Report, 1900, II, p. 2501); 1910
(Report, 1910, ILjp. 1262); 1913-1916 (Biennial Bulletin 1916, No. 39— report of T. J. Jones, 2v.); and Biennial Survey of Educa-
tion, 1919-1920 (Bulletin No. 29, 1922); 1925-1926 (Bulletin No. 19, 1928); also Statistics of the Education of Negroes, 1935-1936
(Bulletin No. 13, 1938)— U. S. Department of the Interior, Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems.
Figure 242 (Tables 120. to 122) makes possible a comparison of the
region's trend by races. Great as have been the gains in white enrollment,
the graph shows rapid gains in Negro education after 1890 from the low
point at which it started in 1870. In 1870 barely 260,000 out of 1,315,369
Negro children, aged 5-17, were in school, a proportion of less than 20
percent. In 68 years this grew to 1,963,501 out of 2,478,600, a ratio of
79.2 percent as compared with 87.8 percent for white school enrollment
in the Southeast. While school population and enrollment began to drop
off in 1938, the percentage of all children in school has continued its
xj upward trend in the region through 1940. Behind the figures presented
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 407
Table 121. Pupils Enrolled in Public Schools Classified by Elementary
and High Schools and by Race, United States
and Southeast, 1 871-1938
United States
Southeast
Year and type of school
All
White
Negro
All
White
Negro
Elementary and High:
1871
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
Elementary:
(including Kindergarten) 1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
High School:
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1932
1934
• 1936
1938
7,561,582
9,867,395
12,722,631
15,503,110
17,813,852
21,578,316
25,678,015
26,275,441
26,434,193
26,367,098
25,975,108
12,519,668
14,983,859
16,898,791
19,721,161
21,278,593
21,135,420
20,765,037
20,392,561
19,748,174
202,963
519,251
915,061
1,857,155
4,399,422
5,140,021
5,669,156
5,974,537
6,226,934
7,251,582
9,082,686
11,425,672
13,943,040
16,064,999
19,474,601
23,395,437
23,922,121
24,004,095
23,928,117
23,563,141
11,224,831
13,429,021
15,157,577
17,634,584
19,108,601
18,918,081
18,498,124
18,142,516
17,544,091
200,841
514,019
907,422
1,840,017
4,286,836
5,004,040
5,505,971
5,785,601
6,019,050
310,000
784,709
1,296,959
1,560,070
1,748,853
2,103,715
2,282,578
2,353,320
2,430,098
2,438,981
2,411,967
1,294,837
1,554,838
1,741,214
2,086,577
2,169,992
2,217,339
2,266,913
2,250,045
2,204,083
2,122
5,232
7,639
17,138
112,586
135,981
163,185
188,936
207,884
1,080,057
2,035,243
3,166,538
3,903,894
4,536,770
5,565,607
6,284,269
6,404,184
6,555,564
6,585,901
6,512,153
3,156,177
3,863,028
4,450,576
5,362,363
5,564,884
5,588,035
5,652,353
5,607,776
5,459,956
10,361
40,866
86,194
203,244
719,385
816,149
903,211
978,125
1,052,197
820,057
1,367,243
2,091,538
2,610,894
3,078,467
3,871,703
4,402,521
4,471,029
4,552,434
4,596,989
4,548,652
2,081,614
2,572,867
2,996,005
3,675,155
3,754,969
3,744,125
3,759,896
3,748,153
3,639,057
9,918
38,027
82,462
196,548
647,552
726,904
792,538
848,836
909,595
260,000
668,000
1 ,075 ,000
1,293,000
1,458,303
1,693,904
1,881,748
1,933,155
2,003,130
1,988,912
1,963,501
1,074,563
1,290,161
1,454,571
1,687,218
1,809,915
1,843,910
1,892,457
1,859,623
1,820,899
443
2,839
3,732
6,696
71,833
89,245
110,673
129,289
142,602
Note: Public High Schools are those specifically reported as such by the Bureau of Education and therefore do not include pro-
fessional, vocational or preparatory schools, and 7th and 8th grades of Junior High Schools; figures for Elementary Schools
include the latter. Thus, elementary schools include grades 1-8 (or 1 to 7), while High Schools include grades 9 to 11 (or 8 to 11
in States with 7-grade elementary schools). Negro enrollment prior to 1930 includes all colored. Negro enrollment given here
for the United States includes 18 States only (minus Oklahoma prior to 1900) where schools are segrated by race; the remaining
Negro enrollment is included with the white. Definition of high school as adopted here and in the latest reports ot the Bureau
of Education could not be traced in 1870 or 1880. Figures for 1870 and 1880 partly estimated.
Source: See Table 120.
in these ascending lines must lie much of the dramatic history, told and
untold, of the region's valiant struggles and able leaders.
Division of these trends into elementary and high school enrollment,
Figure 243 and Table 121, brings out significant contrasts. From 1890 until
1930 enrollment in the elementary schools is shown to be increasing; after
1930 it declines in the United States, and after 1934, in the Southeast. For
both areas it is clear that the great gains have been in the high schools, and
that these gains have continued at an accelerated pace into the more recent
decades. In 1890 the total public high school enrollment in the Southeast
was only 10,361. The greatest increase came in the period 1920 to 1930
when high school enrollment rose from 203,244 to 719,385. By 1938 it
exceeded 1,052,000. In 1890 3.8 percent of the, Nation's youth, aged 14-17
were enrolled in public high schools as compared with 1.1 percent of the
whites and 0.1 of the colored youth in the Southeast (Table 122). By
1900, 3.9 percent in the region and 10.3 percent in the Nation were en-
408 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 122. Ratio of Enrollment in Public Schools to School
Population, United States and Southeast, 1871-1938
United States
Southeast
Year and type of school
All
White
Negro
All
White
Negro
Ratio of enrollment in elementary and
high schools to population 5-1 7 years
inclusive: 1871
62.7
68.9
20.3
32.2
40.3
19.8
1880
65.5
70.1
37.2
47.7
55.9
36.7
1890
68.6
71.3
51.6
59.1
65.7
49.4
1900
72.4
74.6
57.7
63.1
67.8
55.3
1910
73.5
75.4
59.7
68.2
73.2
59.6
1920
77.8
78.4
72.6
77.3
81.9
68.6
1930
81.3
81.6
78.6
81.5
83.4
77.3
1932
82.0
82.1
81.0
82.4
83.6
79.6
1934
81.6
79.9
83.7
83.7
84.3
82.6
1936
83.4
83.5
82.8
84.1
85.5
81.1
1938
84.4
84.8
80.7
85.0
87.8
79.2
Ratio of enrollment in elementary
schools to population 5-13 years in-
clusive: 1890
94.9
98.7
71.2
81.4
90.6
68.2
1900
98.0
100.7
79.6
90.2
99.3
76.3
1910
99.3
101.7
82.2
96.0
103.9
82.9
1920
98.6
98.4
100.6
103.1
107.2
95.2
1930
95.7
94.6
106.7
102.8
101.1
106.3
1932
93.7
92.2
109.1
102.4
99.6
108.4
1934
91.3
89.3
111.5
103.0
99.1
111.4
1936
91.6
89.8
109.0
102.0
99.1
108.3
_ . , 1938
91.1
89.5
106.1
101.5
99.9
105.0
Ratio of enrollment in high schools to
population 14 to 17 years inclusive:
1890
3.8
4.3
0.3
0.7
1.1
0.1
1900
8.5
9.6
0.7
2.1
3.0
0.4
1910
12.7
14.2
0.9
4.3
6.2
O.S
1920
24.0
26.6
2.1
10.2
15.1
1.0
1930
47.1
50.6
12.9
31.3
41.3
9.8
1932
54.2
58.1
15.6
35.2
45.8
12.2
1934
58.8
62.7
18.8
38.7
49.4
15.2
1936
63.8
68.3
21.4
41.9
53.1
17.6
1938
68.3
73.4
22.8
46.1
59.1
19.2
Note : Ratio expressed as percentage of corresponding population group. Whenever the percentage exceeds 100 there is evidence
that the population enrolled in elementary grades is not limited to the group 5-13 years of age. This fact is true for other
s also, but when percentages are below 100 we cannot prove it on the basis of data given here.
: bee Table 120.
periods also
Source
rolled in both public and private high schools (Table 123). By 1920 this
had grown to 13.4 and 26.8 percent; by 1930 to 31.3 and 50.8 percent,
respectively.
Throughout the Nation this trend represents more than an increase in
the provisions made for educating the people; it represents something of
the social revolution to be found in the cultural leveling of classes. For
whatever it is worth, high school education is more and more becoming the
social heritage of all Americans. Of the Nation's population 14-17 in
I93%> 73 -2 percent were enrolled in high schools, public and private; of
the region's, only 48.2 percent (Table 123). Only 19.2 percent of the
Negro youth 14-17 in the Southeast were enrolled in public high schools
as compared with 59.1 percent of the whites (Table 122).
Recent enrollment trends are especially worthy of study in relation to
population trends. The factors influencing enrollment may be balanced
somewhat as follows: We may expect increased enrollment in our schools
(1) if we have a larger proportion of six-year-old children entering the
first grade, (2) if we increase the numbers enrolled in public kindergartens,
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 409
Figure 241. Population 5-17 Years Inclusive and Enrollment in All
Public Schools, United States and Southeast, 1 870-1 938
MILLIONS
40
UNITED STATES
© POPULATION 5 TO 17 YEARS. INC
-o SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
1870 1880 1890
Source: Tables 120 and 121.
1900
I9K>
1920
1930
1940
and (3) if we have less "dropping out of" school in the upper grades. We
may, however, expect decreased enrollments (i) from the decrease in the
number of births, (2) if fewer grades are repeated, and (3) if fewer over-
age children are admitted to the first grade. Significant contrasts are evi-
dent in the recent trends of elementary and high school enrollments.
Since 1930 the elementary enrollment has been declining in the United
States (Figure 244). From 1930 to 1932 the elementary schools lost
143,173 pupils, from 1936 to 1938 the loss was 644,387, or 3.2 percent.
Elementary enrollment steadily increased in the Southeast until it began
a decline in 1934- 193 6 that reached 2.6 percent from 1936 to 1938. De-
clining births and improvement in the progress from grade to grade have
now reached the point where it appears they will continue to counteract
the trend toward increased enrollment in the early grades. This trend
also prevails in the Southeast where the elementary enrollment of the
Negro school population is still far from complete.
In contrast high school enrollment in both the Nation and the region
has shown continued increases. The peak of these increases, however, was
is
4io
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 242. The Trend in the Population of School Age, 5-17, and
Pupils Enrolled in All Public Schools, by Race,
Southeast, 1870- 1938
thousands
100
1870 1880 1890
Source: See Tables 120 and 121.
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
passed in 1930- 1932, when 740,599 new students enrolled in the public
high schools of the Nation, giving an increase of 16.8 percent (Figure 244).
In the same period enrollment in the Southeast showed an increase of
96,764 equal to 13.5 percent. Since then, the rates of increase have declined
to 4.2 percent in the Nation and to 7.6 percent in the region, for the period
1936-1938.
The major factor influencing the decline in elementary school enroll-
ment is the fall in the birth rate. To show how this operates we have at-
tempted to relate the indices of fertility and school enrollment for the ten-
year period, 1927-1936. By allowing a seven-year lag to births, the close
relation that fertility bears to total enrollment in the first grade can be
shown graphically for the Nation and the region as in Figures 245 and 246.
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 411
Table 123. Pupils Enrolled in Private Schools and Pupils Enrolled in
Private and Public Schools Combined, with Ratio of Enrollment
to School Population, United States and Southeast, i 900-1 938
school
United States
Southeast
Year and type of
Private
Private and Public
Private
Private a
nd Public
Number
Number
Ratio*
Number
Number
Ratio*
Elementary and High;
1900
1,351,722
16,854,832
78.7
166,646
4,070,540
65.8
1910
1,558,437
19,372,289
79.9
215,065
4,751,835
71.4
1920
1,699,481
23,277,797
84.0
190,963
5,756,570
80.0
1930
2,576,157
28,254,172
89.4
156,070
6,440,339
83.5
1932
2,723,666
28,999,107
90.5
178,187
6,582,371
84.7
1934
2,691,033
29,125,226
89.9
177,866
6,733,430
86.1
1936
2,638.775
29,005,873
91.7
181,304
6,767,205
86.4
1938
2,687,483
28,662,591
93.1
190,693
6,702,846
87.5
Elementary:
1900
1,240,925
16,224,784
106.1
134,102
3,997,130
93.3
1910
1,441,037
18,339,828
107.8
168,038
4,618,614
99.6
1920
1,485,561
21,206,722
106.1
125,649
5,488,012
105.6
1930
2,234,999
23,513,592
105.8
117,795
5,682,679
104.9
1932
2,320,251
23,455,671
104.0
132,718
5,720,753
105.2
1934
2,330,941
23,095,978
101.5
138,291
5,790,644
105.4
1936
2,251.466
22,644,027
101.7
138,132
5,745,908
104.5
1938
2,240,650
21,988,824
101.4
143,239
5,603,195
104.2
High School:
1900
110,797
630,048
10.3
32,544
73,410
3.9
1910
117,400
1,032,461
14.3
47,027
133,221
6.6
1920
213,920
2,071,075
26.8
65,314
268,558
13.4
1930
341,158
4,740,580
50.8
38,275
757,660
31.3
1932
403,415
5,543,436
58.5
45,469
861,618
37.2
1934
360,092
6,029,248
62.5
39,575
942,786
41.7
1936
387,309
6,361,846
68.0
43,172
1,021,297
43.8
1938
446,833
6,673,767
73.2
47,454
1,099,651
48.2
•For total enrollment, ratio to all school population (5-17 years inclusive); for elementary, ratio to enumerated or estimated
pulation 5 to 13 years inclusive; for High School, ratio to enumerated or estimated population 14 to 17 years inclusive.
jpils given here include pupils enrolled in private and parochial schools as estimated by the Office of Education;
P°L
Note : Private pupik
private high schools do not include private commercial, professional, and vocational schools
Source: See Table 120.
Births show greater year-to-year fluctuations than first-year enrollments,
largely because of the stabilizing effect of retardation on the total numbers
in the first grade. National indices show a downward trend for the high
points reached around 1928. In the Nation the decline in births after 1921
initiated a decline in enrollment that began in 1928 and continued without
a break in spite of some rise in the number of births in 1924. From 1928
to 1936 first grade enrollments fell from an index value of 106 to 90 (Fig-
ure 245). In the Southeast, fluctuating births that finally broke down-
ward after 1921 and 1924 are accompanied by an enrollment trend that
declined much more slowly after 1928. In catching up with its task of^
enrolling the school population, the Southeast exhibits an interesting
phenomena. Using the base period 1927- 193 6 as 100 for enrollment and
the decade 1 920-1 929 as base period for births, it is found that the en-
rollment index holds up better than the birth index by 1934. Thus while
from the high point of 1921 to 1929 the regional fertility index fell from
112 to 88, the enrollment index in the period 1928-1936 fell from 106 to
only 92 (Figure 246). On the favorable side, this trend may be due to
better enforcement of compulsory school attendance laws, and perhaps bet-
412
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 243. Pupils Enrolled in Public Elementary and High Schools,
United States and Southeast, 1890- 1938
-
UMTEDSTATi* , ,. „
10,000
T.000
1
SOU T hf *3T . , - -
4,000
-
— - *"" S
-
1,000
TOO
y r'
S
/
/
/
/
. /
/
/
/
/
/
100
/
^/SOUTHEAST
s
/
/
40
/
/
/
> • £LE1CHTAHY
- /
tf — OMGHSCHXL
/
/
..10
/
1
.1 1 1
Source: Table 121.
Figure 244. The Percentage Change in Elementary and High School
Enrollment, United States and Southeast by
2-Year Periods, 1 928-1 938
PERCENT CHANGE
1928-30 1930-32 1932-34 1934-36 1936-36 1926-30 1930-32 1932-34 1934-36 1936-36
Source: United States Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems, Bulletins No. 5 (1930),
No. 20 (1931), and No. 2 (1933, 1935, 1937 and 1940).
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 413
Figure 245. Indices of Number of Pupils Enrolled in First Grade
(1927-1936) and Number of Children Born (1920-1929),
United States
INDEX
108
<^_
^v
•
» *' \ %
\ " NX
Xs/X.
\ \
— — NUMBER OF PUPILS IN FIRST GRADE X. \
--'— NUMBER OF BIRTHS, WITH SEVEN-YEAR LAG N. V
- . ^^^ <
CwvW^v^vWWv^^^
1. 1 ... 1. .. .1 ■ • , 1 •■ .. . 1 . . 1 1
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
0
1927
32
33
34
35
1936
28 29 30 31
Source: "Population Prospects and Public Schools," School Life (May, 1938), p. 305; U. S. Office of
Education, Statistics of State School Systems, 1935-1936 (1937), Bulletin No. 2j Statistics of the Educa-
tion of Negroes, 1935-1936 (1938), Bulletin No. 13; U. S. Birth, Stillbirth and Infant Mortality Statistics,
1 920-1 929.
ter roads and transportation facilities. On the unfavorable side it represents
the retardation in the first grade, previously shown.
We will do well not to claim too. much for these enrollment figures.
Enrollment in school has never been synonymous with the achievement of
an education. Nevertheless for the Southeast, as for any area, getting the
children in school was the necessary first step. Their retention in school
and their grade advancement furnish the two other prerequisites for nor-
mal educational progress. , - .- . , ...'...
SEVENTY YEARS OF EDUCATIONAL PROGRESS
Over a range of 70 years educational conditions have steadily improved
in the Southeast, cutting down the gap between the region and the Nation.
Table 124 shows that, in the ratio of average daily attendance to enroll-
ment, the region began with a better record than the Nation, 68.6 to 60.1.
By 1890 they were even at 64.1 percent and then the Nation drew ahead,
closing in 1938 with 85.8 percent to 81.2 percent for the region. In this
measure the white Southeast has reached the point held by the Nation in
1930, while the Negro schools have barely passed the Nation's 1920 record.
In 1 87 1 the school term averaged only 77 days in the Southeast as
compared with 132 days in the Nation (Table 125). The terms were in-
4f4
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 246. Indices of Number of Pupils Enrolled in First Grade (1927-
1936) and Number of Children Born (1920-1929), Southeast*
index
112
no
1 oe
106
104
102
100
•8
96
•4
92
•0
88
86
A
NUMBER OF PUPILS IN FIRST GRADE
NUMBER OF BIRTHS, WITH SEVEN YEAR LAO
1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936
* A seven year lag was allowed because births are reported for the calendar year while the school year
begins in the autumn of the preceding calendar year. For computing the indices, we assume the mean
of the series of each decade as ioo.o and use this as a basis for other years.
Source: See Figure 2J0, p. 421.
creased, reaching 96 and 144 days respectively in 1900, 151 and 173 days
in 1930, and 164 and 174 days in 1938, when the region came within 94
percent of the national average. The white schools had an average term
of 166 days in the Southeast as compared with 154 days for the Negro
schools.
In pupil-teacher ratio, the Nation led the Southeast 38 to 44 in 187 1
(Table 124). Under the stress of compulsory education, the ratio rose to
49 in the Southeast in 1900 as compared with 37 in the Nation. Both areas
saw the ratios gradually improved until they stood in 1938 at 28 for the
Nation and 33 for the Southeast. For the region's Negro schools the ratio
was 41, a point passed by the region's white schools in 19 10.
Educational expenditures have increased at a greater rate than other
educational indices. Not all of this increase should be attributed to a rising
price level; part should be attributed to an increase in the quality of edu-
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 415
Table 124. Number of Pupils in Average Daily Attendance, Ratio of
Attendance to Enrollment, Number of Teachers and Pupil-
Teacher Ratio, Elementary and High Schools,
United States and Southeast, 1 871-1938
Item
Number pupils in average daily
attendance
United States: All
White
Negro
Southeast:
AH
White
Negro
Ratio of attendance to enrollment
United States : All
White
Negro
Southeast: All . . .
White.
Negro .
Number of teachers*
United States: All. . .
White.
Negro .
1871
Southeast: All...
White.
« ., Negro.
PuptUteacher ratio**
United States: All. . .
White.
Negro.
Southeast:
All . . .
White.
Negro .
4,545,317
741,011
1880
60.1
68.6
200,515
24,530
38
44
6,144,145
1,332,107
1890
62.3
65.4
286,593
45,611
34
45
8,153,635
7,339,925
813,710
2,030,507
1,346,007
684,500
64.1
64.2
62.7
64.1
64.4
63.7
363,922
339,850
24,072
67,573
47,886
19,687
35
34
54
47
44
55
Item
Number pupils in average daily
attendance
United States: All. . .
White....
Negro ....
Southeast: All...
White....
„ . , , Negro
Katio of attendance to enrollment
United States: All... .
White....
Negro ....
Southeast: All
White.'.'.'.'
Negro ....
Number of teachers*
United States: All..
White....';
Negro
Southeast: All
White"'."
Negro
Pupil-teacher ratio**
United States: All
white. ..;;
Negro
Southeast: All
white.';;;;
Negro
1930
21,264,886
19,593,073
1,671,813
4,784,215
3,414,021
1,370,194
82.8
83.7
73.2
76.1
77.5
72.8
880,365
828,910
51,455
174,366
133,366
41,000
29
28
44
36
33
46
1932
22,245,344
20,442,498
1,802,846
5,063,511
3,585,911
1,477,600
84.7
85.5
76.6
79.1
80.2
76.4
892,945
838,703
54,242
178,270
135,630
42,640
29
28
43
36
33
45
1900
10,632,772
9,651,746
981,026
2,510,877
1,693,877
817,000
68.6
69.2
62.9
64.3
64.9
63.2
423,062
395,749
27,313
80,441
58,736
21,705
37
35
57
49
44
59
1910
1920
1934
22,458,190
20,564,195
1,893,995
5,184,315
3,632,011
1,552,304
85.0
85.7
77.9
79.1
79.8
77.5
869,316
814,116
55,200
173,454
129,964
43,490
30
29
44
38
35
46
12,827,307
11,721,678
1,105,629
2,929,733
2,009,956
919,777
72.0
73.0
63.5
64.6
65.3
63.1
523,210
490,413
32,797
100,723
75,196
25,527
34
33
53
45
41
57
1936
22,298,767
20,413,077
1,885,690
5,248,954
3,709,343
1,539,611
84.6
85.3
77.3
79.7
80.7
77.4
893,347
834,390
58,957
186,300
140,267
46,033
30
29
40
35
33
43
16,150,035
14,734,001
1,416,034
3,798,869
2,622,442
1,176,427
74.8
75.6
67.3
68.3
69.1
66.5
679,533
640,887
38,646
134,478
104,131
30,347
32
30
54
41
37
56
1938
22,298,200
20,408,404
1,889,796
5,288,468
3,751,573
1,536,395
85.8
86.6
78.4
81.2
82.5
78.3
918,715
856,986
61,729
197,246
148,811
48,435
28
27
39
33
31
41
"Pupn-teachir ratfoT,"^ Va ,suPe™s°rs »>« excluding superintendents and other officials.
N^flfaS fe Wlznd^MttSlL^JTtf 1UPA1 enrolle^ to •". teach,ers including principals and supervisors,
because since 1870- 871 thfschml vear b^in, &J I S°uthKeast; Educat.onal Statistics are given for 1871 and not for 1870,
SS Sf^*1 ^^tensSfoT870e^ oXr Wo^heTafc^ ^ " *"-*■ "d *"**
416
ALL THESE PEOPLE
cational services. During this period, the number of school buildings has
increased 97 percent in the Nation and 115 percent in the Southeast (Table
125). From 1890 to 1938, the value of school property per building in-
creased from $1,526 to $31,018 in the Nation and from $343 to $13,531
in the region, a national increase of twenty fold as against a regional in-
crease of thirty-nine fold (Table 126). This increase in value indicates the
gradual trend toward abandonment of the one-room schoolhouse. From
1920 to 1938 the Nation saw its proportion of one-room school buildings
decline from 70 to 53 percent, the region from 6$ to 43 percent (Table
125). In 1880 the Nation had school property valued at $21 per pupil
enrolled, the Southeast at only $3. By 1938 this had increased to $274 for
the nation and $1 10 for the region. Although since 1880 the region's origi-
nal per pupil property values had been multiplied by 36.6 as compared
with 13 for the Nation, they were still only 40. 1 percent of the national
average per school child.
From 1 87 1 to 1938 the Nation increased its total expenditures for edu-
cation thirty-fivefold, rising from $63,397,000 to $2,233,110,000 (Table
126). Expenditures in the Southeast were increased more than sixty fold,
rising from $4,112,000 to $259,863,000. Expenditures per pupil enrolled
in the region were half the Nation's average in 1871, $4 to $8. Both fig-
ures have been multiplied about tenfold, but the region has a lower ratio
in 1938, $40 to $86, than in 1871 (Figure 247). In the region more of
the increased expenditures have been devoted to enrolling the unenrolled
children of school age.
From 1880 to 1938 the Nation increased its total salaries paid to public
school teachers from $55,943,000 to $1,262,392,000, a twenty-two fold
Table 125. Statistics of Education, United States and Southeast,
1871-1938
Item
1871
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
Number of schoolhouses:
116,312
24,593
178,122
224,526
55 ,902
248,279
64,268
265,474
64,946
271,319
68,829
189,227
44,562
70
65
162
120
133
140
115
247,289
57,733
148,712
30,615
60
53
173
132
151
164
132
245,941
56,339
143,445
29,120
58
52
171
135
154
160
124
241,428
54,863
138,542
27,543
57
50
172
142
153
160
138
238,867
55,321
132,813
25,831
56
47
173
146
158
167
143
229,394
52,765
One-room schoolhouses:
121,178
22,501
One-room schoolhouses as per-
cent of total:
53
43
Average length of school term:
United States
All
132
130
135
144
158
174
153
Southeast
All
77
75
86
96
123
164
166
White
154
g
Note: Average length of school-term is the mean length for the United States and for the Southeast, the median value for the
11 Southeastern States.
Source: See Table 120.
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 417
Table 126. Financial Statistics of Education, United States and
Southeast, 1871-1938
Item
1871
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
Total expenditure
($1,000):
United States
Southeast
Expenditure per pupil
enrolled (dollars per
capita):
United States
Southeast
Total salaries to
teachers* ($1,000):
United States
Southeast
Average salary per
teacher* (dollars per
capita):
United States
Southeast
Total value of school
property ($1,000):
United States
Southeast
Value per pupil enrolled
(dollars per capita):
United States
Southeast
Value per schoolhouse
(dollars per capita):
United States
Southeast
63,397
4,112
37,833
189
130,383
78,095
6,076
55,943
4,856
140,507
11,876
91,836
9,707
214.965
15,677
137,688
13,129
426,250
38,706
253,915
27,739
17
1,121
195
106
209,572
7,021
1,177
252
144
342.532
16,789
1,526
343
325
163
550,069
24,716
2,216
385
485
275
1,091,008
79,742
4,110
1,228
1,036,151
99,777
613,405
64,253
871
478
2,409,719
219,320
112
39
8,881
3,186
2,316,790
234,052
1,250,118
143,603
1,420
824
6,211,327
646,376
242
103
25,118
11,196
2,174,651
213,600
1,265,303
136,512
1,417
766
6,581,540
671,166
250
105
26,761
11,913
1,720,105
178,531
1,066,651
114,727
1,227
661
6,624,771
631,692
251
96
27,440
11,514
1.968,898
217,523
1,146,164
129,548
1,283
695
6,731,325
667,526
255
101
28,180
12,066
2,233,110
259,863
86
40
1,262,392
152,750
1,374
774
7.115,377
713,979
274
110
31,018
13,531
•Teachers including supervisors and principals, but excluding superintendents and other State or county administrative officials.
Note: Data for 1871 and 1880 for the Southeast are based on incomplete reports and were partly estimated. All figures refer
to public schools only, elementary and high schools combined.
Source: See Table 120.
increase. In the Southeast such expenditures rose from $4,856,000 to
$152,750,000, a thirty-onefold increase. In 1880 the average annual sal-
aries of teachers were ridiculously low, $106 for a 75 day term in the
Southeast and $195 for a 130 day term in the Nation, with the re-
gional average salary only 54.3 percent of the national salary. By 1938
these averages had grown to $774 and $1,374, but the ratio of the South-
east to the Nation was 50.4 percent, no proportionate gain (Figure 248 )-
In terms of comparative educational advance, it has required hard running
for the Southeast to stand still. To catch up with national standards may
demand a greater burst of speed than the region can muster.
In summary how does the Southeast, after seventy years of striving for
educational progress, compare with other regions? Table 127 and Figure
249 are presented to show the extent to which the six regions varied from
the national average in six measures of educational progress in 1938. The
Far West and the Northeast share educational leadership, exceeding the
national average by anywhere from 20 to 75 percent. More than any other
region the Middle States fall around the national average. The„.Southeast
is shown to lag in every particular, followed by the Southwest in four meas-
ures. The three rural regions — Northwest, Southeast, and Southwest —
share negative deviations on economic indices. Least consistent is the
Northwest, which deviates positively from the national average in four
measures, negatively in two others.
4i8
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 247. Total Annual Expenditures per Pupil Enrolled in Public
Schools, United States and Southeast, 1871-1940
*?870 1880 1890 1900
Source: Table 126 and 3ources cited in Table 120
1910
1920
1930
1940
Figure 248. Average Salary per Teacher, United States
and Southeast, i 871 -1940
930 19*0
Source: Table 126.
CLOSING THE GAP IN SOUTHERN EDUCATION 419
Table 127. Regional Differentials in Educational Statistics
(Percentage Deviations from United States Values),
i937~I938
Percentage deviations from United States values
Educational statistics
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle States
Northwest
Far West
Cost of education per pupil enrolled. . . .
Average annual salary of teachers* ....
Average value of school property per
+37. S
+37.0
+39.4
+13.8
- 1.0
+ 0.6
-54.2
-43.7
-59.9
-32.5
- 8.9
-34.4
-26.4
-24.0
-35.0
- 7.1
' + 2.3 !
- 6.5
+ 9.7
+ 0.4
+20.1
+10.4
+ 2.3
+ 6.5
- 4.2
-30.9
+ 1.1
+11.7
+32.8
+15.2
+45.8
+45.2
+25.2
+22.5
- 4.6
+76.8
Enrollment in high school as percent-
age of total enrollment
Number of teachers per 1,000 pupils**.
College enrollment as percentage of
population 19-22 years, inclusive. . ,
•Includes supervisors and principals but excludes superintendents.
"Ratio of number of teachers employed excluding principals and supervisors per 1,000 pupils in average daily attendance.
Source: Federal Security Agency, U. S. Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems, 1937-1938, Bulletin No. 2, 1940;
Statistics of Higher Education (press release June, 1940).
Figure 249. Regional Variations, Positive and Negative, from
National Averages in Education, i 937-1 938
T
T
I I I 1 I I
COST OF EDUCATION PER PUPIL
eajjjgga
zzzzzzzL V///////7777/ ^^^^^^^^^
AVERA6E ANNUAL TEACHERS' SALARY
'■/////, ^*^.^^%%%%%%mm
Y////////////////////////M
VALUE OF SCHOOL PROPERTY PER PUPIL
T//////S/S//S/////Z^
ENROLLMENT IN HIGH SCHOOL AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL ENROLLMENT
NUMBER OF TEACHERS PER 1,000 PUPILS
COLLEGE ENROLLMENT AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION 19-22
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzZ
A I 1 I
777T&
£RCEI
6553
gggggg
V/////A NORTHEAST
kVVVI SOUTHEAST
YZ/2 SOUTHWEST
BjHjj MIDDLE STATES
HZJ NORTHWEST
MB FAR WEST
-30 -20 -10 O 10 20 SO
PERCENTAGE DEVIATION FROM UNITED STATES' VALUES
Source: Table 127.
CHAPTER 28
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
Within limits the education of all the people, like public health, must
be regarded as a purchasable commodity. It competes in the public mind
with the necessity of supporting other social services and is limited in ex-
tent by the economic resources and interests of the people. In spite of the
almost unanimous devotion of the American people to education, its sup-
port varies greatly from region to region.
The extent to which our States tend to support education is shown by
variations in the salaries paid to teachers, in the average value of school
property, and in the average expenditures per pupil. In 1938 the average
annual salary of school teachers in the United States was $1,374 ranging
from $2,322 in New York to $479 in Mississippi (Figure 250). The Far
West and the Northeast with average salaries of $1,995 and $1,883 ranked
highest, and the Northwest and Southeast with $949 and $774 were the
lowest. The highest salary in the Southeast, $1,003, paid in Florida, fell
considerably under the national average. Comparison by race of 14 States;
with separate school systems showed that school salaries for white teachers
in 1 93 5- 1 93 6 averaged $947 as compared to $646 for Negro teachers
(Table 128). In Mississippi the average salary of Negro teachers was
only 30.1 percent of that of white teachers; in Delaware and Missouri,
Negro teachers had higher average salaries. The lower the average salary
for teachers, the greater is the discrepancy. Negro teachers, it is evident,
hold fewer posts of importance, but those of equal rank and training are
on a lower salary scale in the Southeast.
The average pupil enrolled in the Nation's schools in 1938 had the
use of property valued at $274. Depending on where he lived, this varied
from $81 in Tennessee to $470 in New York (Figure 251). Values in the
Northeast, $382, were more than three times as great as those in the South-
east, $110. Florida, again the best State in the Southeast, attained an aver-
age property value of only $210 per pupil enrolled. A comparison in 10
[420]
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
421
Figure 250. Average Annual Salary per Teacher, Public Schools,
United States, 1938
3C
Source: Statistics of State School Systems, 1937-1938. Bulletin, 1940, No. 2, Table 17, p.
p. 120.
; Table 32,
Table 128. Average Salary of Teachers, Principals, and Supervisors, by
Race, Fourteen States, i 935-1 936
State
White
Negro
Ratio of
average salary
of Negro to
white teachers
(percent)
State
White
Negro
Ratio of
average salary
of Negro to
white teachers
(percent)
All States reporting .
$ 947
1,031
1,538
926
1,515
811
991
901
$ 646
1,332
1,664
821
1,187
543
604
520
68.2
129.2
108.1
88.7
78.3
68.9
60.9
57.6
% 550
1,030
931
709
709
825
788
2 316
493
403
328
282
302
247
57.4
Florida
47.8
43.3
42.6
39.8
Mississippi
36.6
30.1
Note: The average salary in each case was weighted by the corresponding number of positions.
Source: Advisory Committee on Education, Education in the Forty-Eight States (1939), p. 100.
Southern States by race in 1936 showed the average value of school build-
ings, sites, and equipment to be only $36 per Negro pupil as compared
with $183 for white pupils, a ratio of approximately one-fifth (Table 129).
In Maryland the per capita value of school property for Negro pupils was
a little over half that for white pupils j in Mississippi, only 7.3 percent.
Equipment for Negro schools was even more meager.
A better index is the amount spent on education. The average cost of
education per pupil enrolled in public schools, which includes all current
422
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 251. Average Value of School Property per Pupil Enrolled in
Public Schools, United States, 1938
Source: Idem, Table 8, p. 83; Table 24, p. 108.
Table 129. Value of School Property per Pupil Enrolled, by Race,
Ten States, i 935-1 936
Value of sites,
buildings and equipment
Ratio of
Negro to
white value
per pupil
(percent)
State
Value of sites,
buildings and equipment
Ratio of
Negro to
State
Per white
pupil
Per Negro
pupil
Per white
pupil
Per Negro
pupil
white value
per pupil
(percent)
All States reporting . .
?183
273
146
158
103
282
? 36
151
44
46
24
63
19.7
55.3
30.1
29.7
23.3
22.3
£103
248
111
145
147
? 22
49
20
24
11
21.3
19.8
18.1
16.5
7.3
Source: Advisory Committee on Education, Education in the Forty-Eight Statu (Washington, D. C, 1939), p. 1 16. Enrollment
and value of school property for all pupils taken from Biennial Survey of Education, 1935-1936, pp. 103, 81 ; and for Negro pupils
only from David T. Blose and Ambrose Caliver, Statistics of the Education of Negroes, 1933-1934 and 1935-1936, Office of Educa-
tion, Bulletin No. 13, Table 28.
expenses exclusive of interest and capital outlay, was $72 in 1938, ranging
from $22 in Mississippi to $130 in New York (Figure 252). The Far
West spent $105, more than three times the $33 expended per pupil in the
Southeast. Both the Northwest with $69, and the Southwest with $53, fell
below the national average. Only Florida in the Southeast spent as much
as $49. Expenditures in 1936 per Negro child 5-17 in the Southeast were
15.4 percent of the national average, for the average white child in the
Southeast, they were 59.6 percent (Table 130). Table 130 shows how
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
Figure 252. Annual Cost of Education per Pupil Enrolled in
Public Schools, United States, 1938
423
L^T
- »- '
n ■ a-j
y£rKy '- »" %/Vl/2#!^
v^v5a" "ivvvvvva
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y/*r
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S^isjO1
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u^2/yy>>y>v>yyy
vvy> neb R <vyvy>^yyyyy>>
<0^jW/)&
xy^j^wi^Ki ° c L
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*vyyyvyyy'yc ° L ° <yx
ffl%wf£cc$/~"\/ft *^9 "°
Wmm.
ii
J r
/
TBMN. ,-
itc g,J !
wwA
!
™%&
vyy^///^'11"" X///y
*""
i
i.e. A !
J ANNUAL COST PER SCHOOL^/V/
A .«.
| ALA. \ 9A.
"""^ 1 1 UNDER S40 0
PUPIL ^QJ
{
/ KZ^I S40 0-559 9
(1 25 50 75
100 X^/y/y/
/Os/v ////// /y/C^/sv*-* */
\t£jg£$77Z77
?>A p^| 60 0- 79.9 j
/7A^ ggg 80.0 AND OVER
•• * r "" '
E. ■ MB
W. ■ MHBM
|p»/fL»!\
N » ■ ^■■■■■^B
^i
-
Mt IX
"
™ -ii
SI-
_ — , — *! ^_
- *!— — 1
Source: Idem, Table 8, p. 84; Table 34, p. 1.24.
Table 130. Comparison of Average Expenditure on Education, by Race,
United States and Southeast, 1 935-1 936
United
States
all
(percent)
Ratio of Southeast Value to
National Total
Item of expenditure
United
States
all
(percent)
Ratio of Southeast Value to
National Total
Item of expenditure
All
(percent)
White
(percent)
Negro
(percent)
Al!
(percent)
White
(percent)
Negro
(percent )
Average salary per
100.0
100.0
54.2
44.2
— •
62.0
59. 6
30.4
15.4
Average value of
school property per
child 5-17 years of age .
Average value per
100.0
100.0
39.9
42.8
53.5
64.8
Average current ex-
penditure per child
10.8
9.0
•Includes principals and supervisors.
Source: United States Office of Education, Statistics of State School Systems, 1935-1936, Bulletin No. 2, 1937; Statistics of the
Education of Negroes, 1935-1936, Bulletin No. 13, 1938.
the Southeast, white and colored, ranked in per unit measures in comparison
with the Nation in 1938. Average expenditures and values for white
schools usually amounted to 60 percent of the Nation's average; for Negro
schools they rarely exceeded 15 percent.
These comparisons, it will be realized, are hardly adequate to indicate
the differences in the level of education the country over. It costs more for
teachers to live in New York than in Mississippi, and thus it can be as-
sumed that teachers' salaries and per pupil expenditures can be somewhat
larger without providing better instruction. Conversely, the small classes
424
ALL THESE PEOPLE
found in sparsely settled rural areas are more expensive, and, if overcome
by consolidation of rural schools, the improvement necessitates added costs
of transportation. Before the school-consolidation movement became gen-
eral, the regional proportion of one-room school buildings served as a meas-
ure of how sparse settlement affected rural education. One-room school
buildings, however, still made up 52.8 percent of all such structures in the
Nation in 1938, ranging from 88 percent in South Dakota to 7.2 percent
in Utah (Figure 253). The Far West had the smallest proportion, 26.4
percent; the Northwest the largest, 71.7 percent. The Southeast had re-
duced its proportion of one-room school houses to 42.6 with only Arkansas
and Kentucky exceeding the national average. Consolidation gives rural
areas the expense of public bus transportation— which in many cases is less
than the cost of maintaining inefficient one-room schools.
The above discussion will serve as an introduction to the methods de-
veloped by Paul R. Mort, Eugene R. Lawler and associates1 for measur-
ing financial ability in relation to educational need. Financial ability ac-
cording to their method can be measured by estimating the State's revenues
for education which would be raised under a uniform tax plan. This in-
Figure 253. One-Room School Buildings as Percentage of All
School Buildings, United States, 1938
Source: Idem, Figure 10, p. S°> Table 23, p. 106.
1 Federal Support for Education (New York: Columbia University Press, 1936); Principles and Met/t-
ods of Distributing Federal Aid for Education (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office,
'939)-
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
425
volves the knowledge not only of total income but of the distribution of
income among groups. In order to determine the units of educational need
they applied correction factors by States to all children of school age, 5-17.
In sparsely settled rural areas a graduated correction factor not to exceed
1.70 was applied to allow for the high cost of small classes or the transpor-
tation expenses attendant upon consolidation of rural schools. In larger
communities with higher costs of living a correction factor was applied,
ranging from 1.00 in communities of 2,500 to 10,000 to 1.30 in communi-
ties of 500,000 and over. The results are called units of educational need
instead of children of school age.
Figure 254 uses this method to present indices of the difficulty each
State faces in educating its children of school age. The index of educational
need results from applying the correction factors to the population resi-
dence breakdown and is thus the ratio of the computed number of units of
educational need to the number of children, 5-17. As Figure 254 indicates,
the index of educational need ranged from 1.5 1 in the Northwest to 1.24
in the Northeast. By States the range is from 1.62 for North Dakota to
I.I 9 for New Jersey. Twenty States, all rural, exceed the national average
in the general measure of the difficulty of educating children 5-17, four
Figure 254. Index of Educational Need, United States, 1930
Source: Mort and Lawler, Principles and Methods of Distributing Federal Aid to Education, 1939, pp-
68-69.
426
ALL THESE PEOPLE
fall on the average, and 24 fall below it. It is notable that none of the
Southeastern States exceed the national index of 1.30. Unlike the Plains
States of the West, rural population in the Southeast in the main has suffi-
cient density of settlement to admit a cost of education below the national
average.
Table 131 (columns 2 and 3) shows that in 193 5- 193 6 the United
States had over 41.6 million such units concentrated mainly in the North-
east, with 27.8 percent of the Nation's total, and the Middle States, with
26 percent. The Southeast came next with 24 percent, and the Far West
was last with only 5.7 percent. When actual educational expenditures are
reduced to these terms (Table 131, column 1, and Figure 255), it is found
that the United States spends an average of $39.79 per unit of educational
need as compared with $65.06 in the Far West and $18.03 m tne South-
east. As might be expected, the three rural regions fall below the national
average, and the three urban regions rise above it. Figures 256 and 257
compare these expenditures in relation to the needs of States within the
two contrasting regions, the Southeast and the Northeast. They should be
compared with the chart of the regions, Figure 255. The dotted guide
lines represent a minimum expenditure of $48 per unit necessary to secure
a defensible foundation program.2
Table 131. Distribution of Current Expenditure for Public Elementary
and Secondary Education per Weighted Census Unit of
Educational Need, United States, Southeast,
and Northeast, 1 935-1 936
Current
Number
Current
Number
expendi-
weighted
Percent-
Cumula-
expendi-
weighted
Percent-
Cumula-
Area
ture per
units
age dis-
tive
Area
ture per
units
age dis-
tive
unit
(Thou-
tribution
percent-
unit
(Thou-
tribution
percent-
(Dollars)
sands)
of units
age
(Dollars)
sands)
of units
age
United States. .
39.79
41,639
100.0
100.0
20.38
21.77
933
751
9.3
7.5
87 6
95.1
Southeast
18.03
24.65
9,983
3,797
24.0
9.1
24.0
33.1
33.53
493
4.9
100 0
Middle States. .
42.46
10,809
26.0
66.3
56.40
11,559
100.0
100.0
3S.96
3,001
7.2
40.3
Northeast
56.40
65.06
11,559
2,373
27.8
5.7
94.1
99.8
32.65
33.58
251
116
2.2
1.0
2.2
Far West
Vermont
3.2
West Virginia. . . .
33.68
678
5.8
9.0
Southeast
18.03
9,983
100.0
100.0
36.08
527
4.5
13.5
New Hampshire. .
42.30
137
1.2
14.7
12.16
728
7.3
7.3
Pennsylvania ....
44.70
3,119
27.0
41.7
14.55
1,064
10.7
18.0
Rhode Island ....
48.75
204
1.8
43.5
Mississippi
15.48
810
8.1
26.1
50.92
494
4.3
47.8
South Carolina .
15.71
750
7.5
33.6
54.02
74
0.6
48.4
15.82
1,136
11.4
45.0
Massachusetts. . .
61.59
1,165
10.1
58.5
North Carolina .
17.53
1,348
13.5
58.5
62.33
1,188
10.3
68.8
18.72
984
9.9
68.4
74.28
3,606
31.2
100.0
19.66
986
9.9
78.3
Note: Current expenditure on education excludes interest and capital outlay. Weighted units of educational need are com-
puted by multiplying the number of children 5-17 years of age in each locality by a correction factor allowing for variations in
need depending on the cost of living or the sparsity of population.
Source: Mort and Lawler, Principles and Methods of Distributing Federal Aid for Education (1939), p. 68. Table 15 and p. 12,
Table 1.
Mort and Lawler, Principles and Methods of Distributing Federal Aid for Education (Washington,
D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1939), p. 20.
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
427
Average Current Expenditures for Public Education per Unit of
Educational Need, 1935-1936
Figure 255.
Six Major Regions
Figure 256. The
Southeastern States
Figure 257. The
Northeastern States
or
m
«.«*
r
*>
to
—
*
— -
— [
■ggr
—» |
. . .
m
_
m
m
. .
*,,,». «> »
»• to « a
Ijss3
i ;
.
-
PJ
- 1 !
*.
-
-
m.
...
30
-»
■
•
-1
IMI OHXNT CWtMOTU* «• tMT n tOLUW
■
t r
«*
fT
»
1— ^Bmnw
■
1
" 1
J A" 11
Source: Table 130.
The weakness of the Southeast is found in the lack of financial ability
to support education. Comparison of the financial strength of States is
made by the application of a uniform tax plan consisting of six separate
taxes. Under conditions as of 193 5- 193 6, this tax is estimated to yield
almost 2.7 billion dollars. For the Nation this would give $6$ per unit
of educational need, ranging from $26 in the Southeast to $105 in the
Northeast (Figure 258). The range of the States is from an estimated
yield of $15 per unit in Mississippi to $188 in Delaware.
Ability to support education at an adequate level may be regarded as a
result of the relation between the units of need in each area and the amount
of taxable wealth and income. The task of relating educational need to
financial ability to support education is attempted in Table 132 where the
41.6 million units of educational need in the Nation are related to the
$2,692,728,000 that would be raised by the uniform tax plan. The North-
east has 27.8 percent of the national educational needs and 45.2 percent
of its financial ability to support education, a ratio of .61. The Southeast at
the other extreme has 24 percent of the needs to 9.8 percent of capacity,
a ratio of 2.45. Figure 259 indicates that by States this ratio goes from the
extreme of Mississippi, where need is 4.24 times financial ability, to Dela-
ware, where need is only one-third of ability. In all the Southeastern
States except Virginia and Florida, need exceeds ability by more than two
to one.
How do States of differing needs and financial ability compare in the
efforts they put forth to support education? To some extent this may be
428 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 258. Financial Ability of States to Support Education per Unit
of Educational Need, United States, 193 5- 1936
Source: Mort, Lawler and Associates, op. cit., Table 10, p. 50} Table 15, p. 68.
Table 132. Ratio of the Percentage of Educational Need to the
Percentage of Financial Ability, United States and
the Six Major Regions, 1935-1936
Educational need
Financial ability
Ratio of
Area
Thousands
of units
Percentage
distribution
Thousands
of dollars
Percentage
distribution
percent need
to percent
ability
(i)
41,639
11,559
9,983
3,797
10,809
3,001
2,373
117
(2)
100.00
27.77
23.96
9.12
25.97
7.20
5.70
0.28
(3)
2,692,728
1,217,706
263,490
138,664
670,969
143,563
231,505
26,831
(4)
100.00
45.22
9.78
5.15
24.92
5.33
8.60
1.00
(5) = (2)-=-(4)
1.00
0.61
2.45
1.77
1.04
1.35
0.66
0.28
Note: Financial ability measured by the estimated yield of a uniform tax plan applied to the various States and including 6
separate taxes (progressive personal income tax, real estate tax, business income tax, stock transfer tax, severance tax, and cor-
poration organization tax). Educational need expressed in "weighted census units" which represent the number of children
5-17 years of age in 1935 in each community multiplied by a correction factor which takes care of the variations in educational
need in connection with the costs of living or density of population in the community.
Source: Mort and Lawler, op. cit., p. 68, Table 15, and p. 50, Table 10.
measured by the degree to which citizens will limit other public services
in order to pay for public education. Figure 260 ranks the States accord-
ing to the proportion of tax collections that are spent on public education.
Wealthy States with the best records spend the smallest proportion of their
taxes on education while the States of the Far West and Southeast, often
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
429
Figure 259. The Ratio of Educational Need to Financial Ability,
United States, 1935-1936
Source: Mort, Lawler and Associates, op. cit., Table 18, p
Figure 260. Rank of States According to Percentage of Tax Collec-
tions Spent for Public Schools, United States, 1938
Source: National Education Association: "School Costs and State Expenditures." Research Bulletin, 1941.
430
ALL THESE PEOPLE
with the poorest records, spend 43 percent or more of their tax dollars.
Florida, which makes the best record in the Southeast, follows the same
trend, spending only 28.4 percent of its taxes for public education.
To answer the above question in the terms proposed by Mort and Law-
ler we can compare the ratio of current expenditures (i935"I936) to the
estimated revenue that would be raised by the model tax plan.3 Our annual
current expenditure for education is $39.79 per unit, while the uniform
tax would raise $47.53 (Table 133). Thus our national expenditures are
84 percent of the estimated revenue, a figure that will serve as an index
of effort. On this basis the index of effort to support education varies from
102 for the Northwest, 93 for the Southeast and Middle States, to 73 for
the Northeast. An inspection of Figure 261 bears out the idea that the
States with the poorest educational record exert the greatest effort to sup-
port education, while those who support education at highest levels do so
with the least effort. Thus the index of effort ranged from Delaware with
39 percent to New Mexico with 160 percent. Mississippi, which is at the
bottom of many lists, is found to spend currently on public education 138
percent of the revenue that would be raised by the model tax plan. Six
States of the Southeast now spend as much or more on education than they
would by the model plan, while two others exceed the national average.
Nevertheless all these States fall below the Nation's average in expendi-
tures for education and in other measurements of educational standards. ^
If every State used all of its tax resources according to the best indi-
cations of a uniform plan, how much Federal aid would be required (with-
out having to lower present standards in any community) to give all
children of school age adequate educational opportunities? Mort and Law-
ler answer this by assuming that all children of school age would be en-
Table 133. Effort Exerted to Support Education (Ratio of Current
Expenditure to Estimated Revenue) United States and the
Six Major Regions, i935-J936
Area
United States.
Northeast
Southeast
Southwest
Middle States
Northwest
Far West..... ...
District of Columbia .
Actual current expenditure
Total
(Thousands of
dollars)
1,656,799
651,976
179,945
93,605
459,012
107,914
154,386
9,961
Per weighted
census unit
(Dollars)
39.79
56.40
18.03
24.65
42.46
35.96
65.06
Estimated revenue
Total
(Thousands of
dollars)
1,979,156
894,928
193,670
101 ,928
493,149
105,516
170,159
19,806
Per weighted
census unit
(Dollars)
47.53
77.42
19.40
26.84
45.62
35.16
71.71
Ratio of
expenditure to
revenue (Effort)
0.84
0.73
0.93
0.92
0.93
1.02
0.91
Source: See Table 131.
8 Here estimated revenue is computed on the basis of an average effort equal for all states and there-
fore is only 73 percent of financial ability which assumes maximum effort.
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION 431
Figure 261. Effort Exerted to Support Education: Ratio of Expendi-
tures to Estimated Revenues Under Uniform Tax System,
United States, 1935-1936
Source: Mort and Lawler, op. cit., Ch. Ill, p. 20.
Table 134. Federal Aid Necessary to Enable All States to Provide
Adequate Support to Education, United States and the
Six Major Regions, i 935-1 936
Area
United States.
Northeast .
Southeast.
Total
amount
(Thousands
of dollars)
575,665
35,900
306,186
Per
weighted
census unit
(Dollars)
13.83
3.11
30.67
Actual
expenditure
per unit
(Dollars)
39.79
56.40
18.03
Area
Southwest. . . .
Middle States.
Northwest. . . .
Far West
Total
amount
(Thousands
of dollars)
91,911
85,211
50,939
5,518
Per
weighted
census unit
(Dollars)
24.21
7.88
16.97
2.33
Actual
expenditure
per unit
(Dollars)
24.65
42.46
35.96
65.06
fiL°^-'1i0tal/!n0U j* °f Federal aj<1Ja| g;ve,n here is the amount computed according to plan I (distribution in orooortion to
"^ need ,."-order 1° •«=»" • "defensible foundation program" with a minimum of 248 1 annua current expendfture per unk
^iXT^lC\y\^Cl^S^Tn\\^V" ?" '°^al Wft^)i weighted 'census units of educational need com-
S£f& Stuaf £Enh£»&f perweTghtld7 Ss°u„T '" ^ ^^ * *" ^ °f <d™*"»1 "«* *" <°l™«
SRftS SSSgSS ^^^^&h^L i»s£ Sumy °f Education: 0ffice of Education- sta-
rolled and that a minimum of $48 would be spent on each pupil allowing
for the corrections for rural and urban conditions. To carry out such a pro-
gram as of 1935-1936 would cost $575,665,000 in Federal aid (Table
134). Over half the sum, $306,186,000 in fact, would go to the Southeast,
where Federal aid of over $30 per educational unit is needed. For the
Nation the average sum needed per unit would be $13.83, as compared with
only $3.11 in the Northeast and $2.33 in the Far West. As Figure 262
432
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 262. Federal Aid per Educational Unit Necessary to Enable
All States to Provide Adequate Support to Education,
United States, i 935-1936
Source: Mort, Lawler and Associates, op. clt., Table 20, p. 20.
shows, the nine ablest States would need no Federal aid to carry out this
program. After taxing themselves to capacity under the uniform plan, 16
States would still need $20 or more per unit of educational need. _ Missis-
sippi would need $37.78. The least need in the Southeast is found in Flor-
ida, amounting to $10.33 per unit. It has been suggested that the first use
to which such sums should be put in the South is to bring the Negro schools
up to adequate standards.
THE BASIS OF SUPPORT FOR EDUCATION
As public education has grown in this country from little to big busi-
ness, it has found its traditional origin something of an economic handicap
in carrying out its professed aims. The task of education was originally
assumed by the local district which undertook the burden of tax support.
One of the great aims of education has been to equalize the cultural and
economic opportunities offered to our oncoming citizens. Here, however,
the local areas have of necessity been forced to perpetuate their own eco-
nomic inequalities in the education of their children. Coming later into
the field, the Southeast found wide variations in the fiscal ability of local
districts. ' Thus the region has led in the movement to seek a wider basis
of tax support in the county and in the State.
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
433
Table 135. Percentages of School Income from State, County, and
Local Sources, United States, 1 935-1 936
State
United States .
Southeast
Nebraska
South Dakota . . .
Iowa
Rhode Island. . .
New Hampshire .
Connecticut
Illinois
Massachusetts . .
Kansas
Vermont
Pennsylvania. . . ,
New Jersey
M >n tana
Colorado
Indiana
Wisconsin
Missouri
Maine
Oregon
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Wyoming
Sour
Local
63. S
28.3
99.0
97.5
96.6
94.2
92.4
91.3
90.0
89.3
84.8
82.1
78.8
78.7
74.9
74.0
73. 5
73.3
71.9
69.5
69.5
69.8
66.6
66.4
State
29.4
45.3
1.0
2.5
1.1
5.8
7.6
8.7
10.0
10.7
0.3
17.9
21.2
2.0
2.5
26 .'5
16.2
23.0
30.5
30!2
29.2
7.6
County
2.3
14.9
30.5
State
North Dakota.
Arkansas
New York
Ohio
Idaho
Utah.
Michigan
California
Nevada
Maryland
South Carolina.
Washington . . .
Mississippi ....
Texas
Kentucky
Florida
Virginia
New Mexico . . .
Arizona
Tennessee
North Carolina.
Louisiana
Alabama
Georgia
Delaware
West Virginia. .
Source
Local
64.0
63.4
62.8
61.4
59.6
56.3
55.2
50.6
49.6
46.0
45.4
41.2
39.4
35.6
34.9
30.6
29.6
24.4
23.3
20.0
13.8
13.3
11.9
9.3
7.7
0.0
State
24.3
34.9
37.2
37.4
6.7
43.7
44.5
48.2
16.5
23.6
49.8
48.0
41.8
54.3
40.0
50.2
32.7
51.7
74.4
23.6
86.2
47.8
49.5
42.6
92.3
50.8
County
11.7
1.7
\.i
33.7
'6:3
1.2
33.9
30.4
4.8
10.8
18.8
10.1
25.1
19.2
37.7
23.9
2.3
56.4
38. '9
38.6
48.1
49:2
f?uIceA °ffice of Education, Statistics of State School Systems, 1937, Bulletin No. 2, Figure 5 and Table 7 (Washington. D. C:
U. a. Government Printing Office).
The way each State meets this problem is largely a matter of historical
development, and good plans can be found that have many variations in
the degree of local, county, and State support of education.
The support of public education should be studied from both the point
of view of (i) the level of government and (2) the type of tax. Thus it is
estimated that for all the States in 193 5- 193 6 the local school district
furnished 62-5 percent of all school support} the State, 29.4 percent; and
the county, 7.1 percent. Table 135 and Figure 263 show that the degree
of support offered schools by the local district ranged from 99 percent in
Nebraska to none in West Virginia. Similarly the proportion of school
income furnished by the State government ranged from 92.3 percent in
Delaware and 86.2 percent in North Carolina to none in Colorado and
Oregon. Much less of the support of schools is undertaken by the county
as a fiscal unit but here the variation ran from 56.4 percent in Tennessee to
none in 16 States. In the Southeast, the State has assumed about 45 per-
cent; the county, 26 percent; and the local district, 28 percent of tax sup-
port. Thus it is evident the Southeast has gone further than the Nation
in transferring the tax burden from the local school district.
The type of tax employed bears a close relation to the unit of govern-
ment shouldering the main support of education. Thus the main resource
of both local and county units is still the general property tax — a tax
largely on land, a form of property that has not been very productive of
434
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 263. The Percentage of Public School Income Derived from
State, County, and Local Sources, United States, I935-I936
Source: See Table 135.
Figure 264. Percentage of Appropriations for Public Schools Derived
from the General Property Tax, United States, i 935-1936
Source: See Table 136.
THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION
435
income between the two World Wars. In 193 5- 193 6 this tax furnished 73.2
percent of the support of education, ranging from 100 percent in the five
States of New Jersey, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, and Oregon to 15.1 per-
cent in North Carolina and 8.1 percent in Delaware (Table 136 and Fig-
ure 264). Business and miscellaneous taxes, largely corporation taxes, pro-
duce 8.7 percent of total support, ranging from 29.6 percent in South Caro-
lina to nothing in six States.
Table 136. Percentage Distribution of State and Local Taxes
Appropriated for Public Elementary and Secondary
Schools, by Type of Tax, United States, i 935-1 936*
Type of tax
State
Type of tax
State
"2 s
« °
c 3
rt 2
hi
fl
a.
i
Si
•a
V »
J£ *
«■«
*
to
W 03
B V
m'§
a
0
V
a,
£
"3
hi
2-1
•0
*i
c«"2
M
eo
X
at rt
MS
cfl
C
O
S
73.2
7.0
4.4
2.2
8.7
4.5
Pennsylvania . . .
78.8
78.9
4.9
(t)
4.6
6.7
7.8
10.7
3.9
3.7
63. S
7.5
9.8
4.1
12.6
2.5
79.6
80.9
'i'.s
.7
12.6
14.4
3.5
5.3
1.5
8.1
69.7
22.2
81.1
2.4
9.4
7.1
North Carolina .
1S.1
31.4
1.9
44.2
7.4
84.2
85.6
'i'.i
2.2
7.7
9.2
2.1
4.4
.3
New Mexico ....
SO. 3
38.7
6.5
3.7
.8
86.7
3.9
6.6
2.8
West Virginia.. .
50.6
34.0
1.0
12.9
1.5
South Dakota . .
89.3
10.5
.2
SI. 8
29.6
4.4
8.8
5.4
Massachusetts .
89.3
.1
.9
9.7
52.5
S6.0
22.4
10.8
10.5
10.0
29.6
4.3
3.9
Utah
89.7
5.0
2.8
2 5
South Carolina, .
57. 6
.6
4.6
26.8
5.2
5.2
90.0
10.0
57.8
19.2
6.2
13.7
3.1
Connecticut... .
92.4
1.7
4.9
1.0
58.1
58.5
14.8
3.5
20.1
ii!9
21.1
5.1
2.5
.4
93.2
94.4
94.4
95.3
3.2
2.9
2.6
1.0
.5
.7
2.4
2.1
3.4
Texas
New Hampshire
Rhode Island . .
.6
.1
.8
Ohio
62.7
18.4
5.6
8.6
4 6
.1
2.4
62.6
7.8
20.8
6.0
2.8
New York
63.1
(t)
2.6
4.3
IS. 7
14.3
Montana
97.4
.7
1.0
.9
65.8
67.9
16.0
7.6
24.5
'4;2
8.8
2.2
1.8
1.2
98.3
1.7
• ■ • •
68.2
69.0
10.6
(t)
12.3
3.7
ii'.b
8.3
11.2
.6
2.1
99.0
99.7
.2
.2
.2
....
.5
.1
I
Georgia
ffl
New Jersey ....
100.0
(t)
(t)
(t)
Kentucky
70.7
10.1
13.2
» ,.
5.3
.7
100.0
70.8
6.6
19.8
2.8
100.0
North Dakota . .
75.6
17.1
7.3
100.0
76.7
12.5
10.7
.1
100.0
•"Selected sales" include all commodity taxes except "general sales." "Personal" taxes include income, inheritance, and gift
taxes. Business and miscellaneous" taxes include the business taxes and the "all other nonproperty" taxes.
{Less than 0.05 percent.
Source: Clarence Heer, Federal Aid and the Tax Problem (Washington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1939), p. 41;
Appendix D for sources of data and method of estimation; Table 8 for taxes included.
About 1 1.4 percent is raised through taxes on consumption. The gen-
eral sales tax accounts for 7 percent, and the range is from New Mexico,
where this tax contributed 38.7 percent of the support of education to 20
States which have no general sales tax. Special sales or luxury taxes are
used by more States but contribute only 4.4 percent to the support of edu-
cation in all the States. The range is from 24.5 percent of educational sup-
port in Louisiana to ten States making no use of such taxes.
Personal income and inheritance taxes, so important in the Federal
budget, contribute approximately 4.5 percent to education in the States as
436 ALL THESE PEOPLE
a whole. Here the range is from 22.2 percent in Delaware to none in nine
States. Highway taxes are used to support education in only six States,
the largest use being in Florida, where they support 26.8 percent of the
burden. In many States, some in the Southeast, the highway fund is well
supported by gasoline and other taxes, while the educational budget is
often in arrears. This has given rise to political struggles to "divert" part of
the highway fund to the further use of State equalization funds in the sup-
port of public education. Unsuccessful as they have proved, these efforts
bid fair to continue in States that are hard pressed to meet the educational
budget.
CHAPTER 29
FROM THE GRASS ROOTS TO THE COLLEGE
The predominance of the local district and the county unit in the support
of education gives play to valuable qualities of local self-government and
individual initiative, but it makes the variations in educational opportunity
within States much greater than we have indicated in discussing their com-
parative ranking. A great gulf still remains in the Southeast between the
educational opportunities offered in the urban and rural environments.
School facilities in the larger cities of the region usually rank well with
those throughout the Nation. It is the rural school districts with their lack
of standards and weak financial basis that lag woefully behind. In addi-
tion to their lower incomes and greater numbers of children per 1,000
adults, rural areas encounter all the difficulties inherent in low densities of
population, inadequate transportation to school centers, and cultural tra-
ditions too immature to give adequate support to education.
EDUCATION IN LOCAL AREAS OF THE RURAL SOUTHEAST
In a study of school services in an Arkansas county within the shadow
of the State University, J. L. Charlton1 has analyzed these conditions. The
115 open-country school districts in the county contained 80 percent of the
farm population, but enrolled in high school only 1 1 percent of those of
high school age. The 14 districts which contained villages or towns with
4-year high schools enrolled more than 60 percent of their high school
population. These two groups contain basically the same type of people,
for the urban dwellers in the main have moved into town in the last gen-
eration. From this one fact their children are to profit greatly, at a ratio
of six to one, in access to education and its related cultural and material
rewards.
The central districts with their superior economic resources had fewer
children for whom to provide schools, and over a ten-year period received
1 School Services in Rural Communities in Washington County, Bulletin No. 398 (Fayetteville, Arkan-
sas: Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, 1940).
[437]
438 ALL THESE PEOPLE
for support of schools nearly twice as much revenue per enumerate as did
the open-country districts. Moreover, about 80 percent of the population of
these districts was concentrated in the towns in which the high schools were
located. Rural schools were deficient in length of term, in training of
teachers, in buildings and equipment. Moderately well-off farmers in these
rural districts often had to send their children to central districts and to
pay tuition, even though they had paid the required tax for support of
their own inadequate local schools. Poorer farmers were forced to see their
children go without adequate education. One district was found from
which no student had attended a 4-year high school in the preceding ten
years. High school enrollments were found to vary with distance from the
school and to change with changes in bus routes and transportation rather
than with changes in wealth and income. The amount of taxable wealth
to support education on the local district basis ranged from less than $300
per school enumerates in poor districts to over $1,200 in towns.
In a study of ten rural school districts in upland South Carolina, Henry
L. Fulmer2 showed how the education of the child is restricted by the
limitation of the small school district. The management of these schools
was in the hands of elected trustees who selected teachers, disbursed funds,
and influenced the teaching program. In all the elementary schools, one
or more teachers were related to trustees, and in most of the districts a
change of trustees in a school election meant a change of teachers. In some
districts trustees appointed teachers without advice or knowledge of school
principals. The teachers were usually products of the local community and
local schools and had had a median of 1.8 years of college training. There
was little professional educational leadership and 24 of the 36 teachers
did not belong to a teachers' association or group.
There was a high percentage of retardation j 48 percent of all the pupils
had repeated one or more grades. By standard tests the scores of seventh
grade pupils were found to be three to four years lower than those of the
grade pupils in a nearby urban school. Eleventh grade pupils scored lower
than urban eighth graders. These youth were not receiving the benefits of
library services, recreational activities, and health education. No aids to
teaching were used beyond the required State texts and routine class
periods.
While the schools were routine and uninspiring, the study points out
that some responsibility can be placed on the fact that the pupils are in-
sufficiently and improperly nourished. Many farms did not produce
enough meats, vegetables, fruits, and milk to feed the family. Three-
fourths of the tenant families stated that they did not produce enough but-
a An Analytical Study of a Rural School Area, Bulletin No. 320 (Clemson, South Carolina: South Caro-
lina Agricultural Experiment Station, 1939).
FROM THE GRASS ROOTS TO THE COLLEGE 439
ter and milk for home needs, and 23 percent of these families had neither
cows, hogs, nor home gardens. Medical examination by the county health
department indicated that 90 percent of the pupils suffered from major
health defects. Tax analysis showed that back of each school child there
was only $297 worth of taxable property. From these meager resources
there was allowed for school purposes the annual sum of $4.54 per pupil.
Such are the pictures of education in the countryside that are presented
by realistic studies of the way the local district functions in the South's
poorer agricultural areas. Deficiencies in rural education ranged all the way
from inadequate tax support to a cultural tradition inadequate to uphold
the education that the available income might purchase. Part of that in-
adequate tradition may rest in the devotion to the outmoded small dis-
trict with its partisan politics, its inadequate local support, and its lack of
professional standards. The deficiencies of this type of education penalize
dwellers in the countryside both in their adjustment to the rural environ-
ment and in their competitive struggle with those who dwell in urban cen-
ters
HIGHER EDUCATION IN ITS REGIONAL ASPECTS
The capstone of our educational system is found in the college and uni-
versity. If our people are to be prepared for leadership, if States are to
overcome their handicaps and if local areas are to go forward in cultural
development, they must make use of the aid offered by higher education.
How do our regions stand in their devotion to college and university
training?
It is one thing to measure the degree to which opportunities for higher
education are made available to a people and are utilized by them. It is
quite another thing to interpret the meaning of these facts. Although many
of our best universities are privately endowed institutions supported by . ,
philanthropy, some idea of regional contrasts in higher education can be / ^J~
secured by studying the amount of public funds devoted to its support.
In 1932 this figure amounted to $1.97 per adult in the United States and
ranged from $5.47 in North Dakota to $0.90 in Massachusetts (Figure
265). Western and southern, States rank among those spending the most
public funds per capita for the support of higher education; New England
States, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York spend the least. It is in higher
education that private institutions are of the greatest importance in this
country. The most notable of these universities, located in the rich and
early settled eastern States have been regarded as national institutions,
partly because the funds which established them come from the exploitation
of national resources in national markets. To some extent, as our figures
suggest, these endowed institutions of higher learning have saved eastern
440
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 265. The Amount of Public Funds, State, County and City,
Devoted to Publicly Supported Higher Education per Inhabitant
21 and Over, United States, 1932
Source: Education in the Forty-Eight States (Washington, D. C, 1939), p. 171.
States the necessity of developing expensive State university systems. Com-
ing later to the development of higher education, the States of the West
and South were not able to escape this necessity.
A good idea of the proportions who go on to higher education can be
secured by relating college and university enrollments by States to the
population of college age, 19-22 (Figure 266). This measures the facili-
ties for higher education in each State, but takes no account of the number
of southern students who attend college outside their region or the many
who come into the region for their education. Thus the index is not
an adequate measure of proportions going on to higher education in each
State j to some degree it measures the extent to which some States may
depend on others to carry on the task of education for them.
No one can presume to say what proportion of the Nation's youth
should attend college. For the United jStates in 193 7- 193 8, it appeared
that college enrollment was approxfrhately 14.4 percent of youth of both
sexes aged 19 to 22 (Figure 266). The greatest devotion to^higher edu-
cation existed in the Far West, where one-fourth of the youth of college
age were enrolled. The least was found in the Southeast where 9.4 per-
cent were enrolled. The Southwest is the next lowest with 13.4 percent
enrolled. Utah shows the highest enrollment, 27.6 percent} Mississippi,
FROM THE GRASS ROOTS TO THE COLLEGE 441
Figure 266. Student Enrollment in Institutions of Higher Learning
per 100 Population Aged 19-22, United States, 1937-1938
Source: For student enrollments see Table 137; for population data, Table 138.
New Jersey, Arkansas, and Delaware the lowest, ranging from 6.9 to $•&
percent. We can, no doubt, be safe in assuming that a higher proportion
of the youth of New Jersey and Delaware secure college education else-
where than those of Mississippi and Arkansas.
Until recently women have been somewhat restricted in their oppor-
tunities for higher education. It is of interest to note that women do not
yet make up half of the total student enrollment in our colleges, summer
schools to the contrary notwithstanding. In the period 193 7- 1938 women
students comprised 40. 5 percent of total college enrollment in the Nation
(Figure 267). Again we recognize a condition, although we can not pre-
sume to say what our standards should be. It is most significant to note
that the backward and chivalrous South has the highest ratio of women in
^College., 45.9 percent for the Southeast and 44 percent for the Southwest.
The enhghteriec1~?<foTtTie^^ history of higher education has
the lowest ratio, 38.3 percent. In Tennessee, as Figure 267 shows, almost
half of all college students are women, 49.7 percent; in New Hampshire
only one-fourth, 25.8 percent. The Southeast also has the highest propor-
tion of women on its college faculties, 35.5 percent; the Northeast, the
lowest, 24.6 percent (Table 137). In this respect the South and West
would appear to partake more of the modern temper.
442
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 267. Percentage of Women Students in Total Enrollment,
Institutions of Higher Learning, United States, i 937-1 938
Source: See Table 137.
Table 137. Statistics of Higher Education, United States and the
Six Major Regions, i 937-1 938
Educational statistics
United
States
North-
east
South-
east
South-
west
Middle
States
North-
west
Far
West
D.C. and
U.S. Service
Schools
Number Institutions
Faculty:
All
1,690
123,677
87,990
35,687
28.9
1,350,905
803,893
547,012
40.5
169,943
21,628
2,932
401
40,160
30,267
9,893
24.6
407,872
251,742
156,130
38.3
51,466
8,863
1,323
369
21,507
13,863
7,644
35.5
202,552
109,592
92,960
45.9
26,341
1,787
157
136
7,766
5,095
2,671
34.4
103,498
57,947
45,551
44.0
14,018
1,263
44
475
32,047
22,765
9,282
29.0
379,438
230,299
149,139
39.3
44,946
6,456
1,020
140
8,264
5,676
2,588
31.3
93,732
55,545
38,187
40.7
10,891
1,319
58
145
11,741
8,532
3,209
27.3
138,412
81,006
57,406
41.5
14,163
1,449
244
24
2,192
1,792
400
Men
Percent women
College enrollment:
All
25,401
17,762
7,639
Men
Percent women
Degrees conferred:
Bachelors
Masters
3,118
491
86
Note: U.S. Service Schools include U. S. Military Academy, U. S. Naval Academy, and U. S. Coast Guard Academy. Faculty
given as full-time equivalent units. Number of students comprises resident college enrollment, September to June. Degrees
conferred do not include honorary degrees.
Source: Office of Education, Statistics oj Higher Education, 1937-1938, press release of June, 1940.
The Negro still remains largely outside the sphere of influence of
higher education, and his status affects, as it rightly should, the standing
of the Southeast in this field. Only 9.4 percent of the region's youth aged
19-22 can be found enrolled in the region's colleges. Almost, 12.2 percent
of the white youth of the Southeast are so enrolled, ranging from"" 17" per-
FROM THE GRASS ROOTS TO THE COLLEGE 443
cent in Louisiana to 7 percent in Arkansas (Table 138). In spite of recent
advances, it is evident tfeat-ieffij^egroes reach the college level in the
South. Of the Negroes aged 19-22 in the region, only 3.7 percent are en-
rolled in the Negro colleges in the Southeast (Table 138). In 193 6- 193 7
Mississippi had only 971 Negroes in college as compared with 4,839 in
North Carolina. Table 139 gives the number of institutions, teachers, and
students for States which have separate colleges for Negroes. Within the
Southeast the proportion of Negro youth enrolled in college varies from
1 percent in Mississippi to 7 percent in Kentucky. It is found that the bor-
der States with the smaller proportions of Negro population make a better
showing than States with larger numbers. It is realized that the wealthier
if not the abler Negro students attend northern and eastern universities, but
no figures are available that will allot enrollment by race to State of
residence or nativity.
Table 138. Comparison of Negro and White College
Enrollment, Southeast, 1937
White
Negro
Area
White
Negro
Area
Student
enroll-
ment
(number)
Ratio to
popula-
tion 19-22
(percent)
Student
enroll-
ment
(number)
Ratio to
popula-
tion 19-22
(percent)
Student
enroll-
ment
(number)
Ratio to
popula-
tion 19-22
(percent)
Student
enroll-
ment
(number)
Ratio to
popula-
tion 19-22
(percent)
176,411
19,779
23,891
12,034
18,482
9,686
12.17
13.75
12.80
14.91
11.80
12.72
26,141
3,376
4,839
1,933
2,333
1,514
3.74
6.46
5.61
2.64
2.26
3.83
Mississippi
18,814
20,856
15,104
10,946
8,075
18,744
10.46
11.76
10.67
13.12
7.13
16.97
1,183
2,722
2,713
971
1,488
3,069
6.97
6.33
3.25
1.07
3.46
4.51
North Carolina . . .
South Carolina . . .
Note: Total student enrollment (both races) is given for the academic year 1937-1938, while Negro enrollment in institutions
of higher education is for 1936-1937. Strictly comparable data were not available. White and Negro population estimated
as of 1937 for the ages 19 to 22 inclusive; enrollment for white students obtained by subtracting Negro enrollment from total.
Source: Monroe N. Work (ed.), Negro Year Book, 1937-1938 (Alabama: Tuskegee Institute), pp. 197-205; Office of Education,
Statistics of Higher Education, 1937-1938, press release of June, 1940; Fifteenth Census of the Untiec I States ,1930 II, Chap. 10,
Tables 27 and 28; John D. Biggers, Census of Partial Employment, Unemployment and Occupations, 1937, IV (Washington, U. L. .
U. S. Government Printing Office), p. 134.
The Northeast and Middle States together have over one-half of the
institutions, faculties, and students devoted to higher education in this
country (Table 140). With j^-^ercent of the college enrollment in
1937-1938, they conferred 58.4 percent of the bachelor's degrees, 71 per-
cent of the master's, and 8cf percent of the doctor's degrees. The South-
east had more small institutions, a fair ratio of faculty to students, and of
bachelor degrees to students. Figure 268, which shows the percentage ratio
of first degree graduates, I933"i934> t0 freshmen 1931-1932, suggests
the degree of continuity in higher education. In the Nation the college
seniors made up 44.3 percent of the entire freshmen for the given years, the
figure ranging from 81.8 percent in Rhode Island to 25.1 percent in Utah.
The Students in eastern States showed the highest tendency to finish col-
lege; those in the West and South the lowest.
444
Table 139.
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Educational Statistics of Negro Higher Education,
United States, 1 936-1 937
Area
Number
institutions
Number
teachers
Number
students
enrolled
Area
Number
institutions
Number
teachers
Number
students
enrolled
100
8
13
14
13
5
4
7
14
7
6
9
2,595
288
293
308
335
192
78
293
225
140
173
270
26,141
3,376
4,839
1,933
2,333
1,514
1,183
2,713
971
1,488
3,069
2,722
33
2
13
4
1
3
2
2
3
1
1,097
61
278
88
19
105
42
31
51
74
11,254
738
4,296
736
83
931
688
160
468
680
North Carolina. . . .
Maryland
Florida
West Virginia
Alabama
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Total
133
3,692
37,395
Note: These statistics include government and private universities and colleges for Negroes; a large number of them in ad-
iltl0woi collep "udents enumerated here, also offer some courses for high school, elementary, and other students. 'Hence
the i,Wl teachers enumerated here are not employed exclusively as college professors
Source: Monroe N. Work (ed.), Negro Ytar Book, 1937-1938.
Table 140. Percentage Distribution of Statistics of Higher Education,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 193 7- 1938
Educational statistics
Institutions
Faculty (both sexes)
Students (both sexes)
Degrees conferred:
Bachelors
Masters
Doctors
Population, 19-22 years of
age
United
States
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
North-
east
23.7
32.5
30.2
31.2
41.0
45.1
30.0
South-
east
21.8
17.4
15.0
16.0
8.2
5.4
22.9
South-
west
8.0
6.3
7.7
8.5
5.8
1.5
8.2
Middle
States
28.1
25.9
28.1
27.2
29.9
34.8
26.4
Note: See Table 137 for definitions.
Source: See Table 137; for population data, see Table 138.
North-
west
8.3
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.1
2.0
6.0
Far
West
8.6
9.5
10.2
8.6
6.7
8.3
6.1
D.C and
Military
Academies
1.5
1.7
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.9
0.4
Lacking the institutions of graduate standing, the Southeast did not
give a proportionate number of master's and doctor's degrees. Nevertheless
the figures are encouraging for they show quantitatively the extent to
which higher education has increased in the area. With 21.8 percent of
the institutions, the region had 17.4 percent of the faculty and 15 percent
of the Nation's students (Table 140). To them it awarded 16 percent of
the bachelor's degrees, 8.2 percent of the master's, and 5.4 percent of the
doctor's degrees. It is in their graduate training that the great endowed
institutions of the East approach nearest the status of national universities,
serving all regions. Until the quality of the region's instruction and train-
ing can be further improved, this, no doubt, represents a fair ratio. But
this, it should be stated, represents a fair ratio, not of those southerners who
should secure graduate instruction, but of the share which can now be pro-
vided in the region. The same cannot be said of higher education for the
Negro. Here because of a long existing lag, improvements in quantity and
quality must be made, step by step, as rapidly as facilities and support
can be provided.
FROM THE GRASS ROOTS TO THE COLLEGE
445
Figure 268. Percentage Ratio of First Degree Graduates, i 933-1 934
to Freshmen, 1 931-1932, United States
Source: Education in the Forty-Eight States, 1939, p. 164.
CONCLUSION
In summary, the relation of education to cultural adequacy and na-
tional survival is not difficult to show. The function of education has often
been given legal definition in our courts. One well-phrased statement
reads: "Free schooling furnished by the State is not so much a right granted
to pupils as a duty imposed upon them for the public good. . . . While most
people regard the public schools as a means of great personal advantage to
the pupils, the fact is too often overlooked that they are the governmental
means of protecting the State against the consequences of an ignorant and
incompetent citizenship."3 In our modern day the direct consequences are
threefold: military, economic, and political. Citizens with less than five
years of schooling are now limited in their participation in the defense of
their country. Ignorant citizens are more likely to become public charges
and thus increase the Nation's relief bill. Citizens ill-informed and preju-
diced become the prey of demagogues and thus tend to break down the
equitable functioning of government so necessary for the preservation of
the free ballot in a democracy.
Fogg vs. Board of Education of Littleton, 76 N. H. 299.
446 ALL THESE PEOPLE
Free public education for all children is one social value to which our
country is committed. It is therefore a commentary on our sense of realism
in this country that these three simple arguments have never appealed to
the intelligence of the American people sufficiently to lead them to develop
a national program, designed to support an educational minimum irrespec-
tive of residence, race, and economic status of children. In World War II
we suffered from a lack of manpower in the armed forces and from a lack
of skilled labor that could be attributed directly to regional and class
variations in the educational level the country over. Nations that neg-
lect the essentials of national survival should not talk too much in terms
of their ideals of democracy when, as our preceding chapters show, they
have allowed these ideals to go unrealized.
CHAPTER 30
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
More than anything else the future cultural and economic development
of the Southeast will depend on leadership. Leadership is a thing of quality
and therefore difficult of definition and discussion. Quality is demanded,
but for the achievement of cultural maturity any society needs men of
ability and talent, however defined, in quantity. Democracy depends on
the talent of the many as well as the distinction of the few. Where large
numbers are concerned some measure of statistical analysis is possible.
The preceding discussion of higher education offers one approach to
the study of leadership. The region's proportion of youth in college offers
some indication of those who may be expected to go on to achieve distinc-
tion in professional and technical fields. Of these groups some will qualify
as leaders, others as the auxiliary force necessary to implement leadership
in technical, economic and cultural development.
The present chapter attempts to approach the baffling question of the
adequacy of leadership from several points of view. The leadership of the
regions as that of the Nation stems from tradition. The South has an older
tradition of distinguished leadership and its past may well be examined in
order to compare its ability to produce men of distinction with that of other
regions. For the recent past and the present we can compare the region's
production of men of talent with that of the Nation. We can also use the
region's representation in the professions as an index of its ability to support
specialists and men of proficiency. In addition the discussion in the pre-
ceding chapter of the proportion of the population securing higher educa-
tion offers an index to the amount of leadership to be expected in the future.
THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF MEN OF DISTINCTION
Has the South had in the past its share of men of distinction? There is
hardly any way of answering this question except by the method of com-
parison. The question then becomes how do the southern States compare
[447]
448 ALL THESE PEOPLE
with the rest of the Nation in the production of great men? A second ques-
tion arises in connection with regional differences in the fields in which these
men won distinction, and a third has to do with the migration of notables
to different regions.
The completion in the period 192 7- 1934 of the Dictionary of American
Biography with its 13,633 biographies of non-living notables, selected by
specialists on the basis of well established criteria of prominence and
achievement, affords us an opportunity to study the geography of distinc-
tion in the United States.1 For the dividing period we take the Civil War
and separate the notables into two groups — those dying before and those
dying after January 1, 1866. The historical limit means that we shall be
confined largely to the consideration of three regions — Northeast, South-
east, and Middle States.
There are 13, 633 notables listed in the Dictionary. Of these, 78.4
percent or 10,684 are native white and thus can be related to a necessary
population base in our calculations. This consideration plus regional va-
riations in ethnic composition dictated the necessity of excluding the for-
eign-born, Negro, and Indian groups from our calculations. It is note-
worthy, however, that about 16.5 percent of those listed in the Dictionary
are foreign-born; 4.5 percent, Negroes; and 0.6 percent, Indians. By mak-
ing some adjustments in the time factor these figures can be related to base
populations. The foreign born and Indians are well represented; Negroes
and women are underrepresented. Thus in 1890 foreign-born whites com-
posed 15 percent of the total population and 16.5 of the notables. The
average Negro population between 1790 and i860 was 16.8 percent of the
total for the same period but Negroes made up only 4.5 percent of the
notables. Indians in 1880 were 0.3 percent of the population and their
notables made up 0.6 percent of the total. American-born women, it may
be pointed out, comprise only 4.7 percent of all native white notables. Ob-
viously, mothers and wives who shared in the struggles and had a large
part in accounting for the "fame" of notable men are, by the very nature
of things, omitted from separate listings.
BIRTH RATES OF NOTABLES
For all regions the decade 1800-18 10 was the highest point in the
birth of great men (Figure 269). The Northeast ranks highest in the pro-
duction of notables, reaching in this period a high "birth rate" of 22.2 per
million native white population; the Southeast is next with 16.6, the Mid-
*Cf. Dumas Malone, "The Geography of American Achievement," Atlantic Monthly, 1 54 (December,
1934), 669-679. This first analysis by the editor of the Dictionary has the great advantage of being written
against the background criteria on which the selections were based.
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 449
die States with 16.0.2 All successively fall until the decade 18 50- 18 60
shows the Northeast with 5.4, the Middle States with 2.8, and the South-
east with 2.6 notables born per million population. Outstanding among
the States is Massachusetts which reaches a birth rate of notables of 40.4
per million during two decades, while South Carolina and Virginia have
rates of 17.8 and 16.0 respectively in their best decades. Ohio leads the
Middle States. All other regions, as we shall see, because of later settle-
ment have had to develop more of their great men out of imported articles.
The results give support to the oft expressed view that leadership is on
the decline and great men are becoming fewer. Both in the Nation and its
regions distinction, it seems, is passing from the leaders to the masses. The
numerical chances of becoming famous are greater during the founding of
a small nation than in maintaining the country after it becomes more popu-
lous. Stated more precisely, the chances of achieving distinction as meas-
ured by the criteria of the Dictionary are diminishing. In the decades from
1790 to 1820 the national "birth rate" of notables was above 19 per million,
Figure 269. Birth Rates of Notables per 1,000,000 Native White Popu-
lation, United States and Three Regions with
Massachusetts, 1 790-1 860
Source: See Table 141.
aFor a discussion of methods used, see Rupert B. Vance and Nadia Danilevsky, "The Geography of
Distinction: The Nation and Its Regions, 1790-1927." Social Forces, XVIII (December, 1939), 168-172.
450
ALL THESE PEOPLE
from 1820 to i860, it progressively fell by decades from 14.7 to 10.8 to
6.3 to 3.7 (Figure 269).
Over the whole period, 1790- 1860, the Nation's average was 9.9 no-
tables per million population. The Northeast led with a rate of 13.6 fol-
lowed by the Southeast with 6.9 and the Middle States with 4.8. Figure
270, which shows the distribution by States, indicates that the District of
Columbia led with a birth rate of 31.4. As the Mecca of the great and near
great the District drew temporary residents from all regions. They gave
birth in Washington to notable children who with justice can hardly be as-
signed to any region.
Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island had the next highest
rates followed by New York and the rest of New England. South Carolina
rather than Virginia led the Southeast, with Alabama and Florida bring-
ing up the rear. Late comers to the brotherhood of States showed the low-
est birth rate of notables according to the criteria of the Dictionary.
Figure 270. Average Birth Rates of Notables per Million Native
White Population, United States, 1 790-1 860
Source: See Table 14.1.
FIELDS OF LEADERSHIP
It is the general feeling that while the Old South led in military and
political leadership it lagged in literature, education, and science. Our
study enables us to test these distinctions among the various fields of lead-
ership. The callings in which leaders most often rise to distinction differed
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 451
greatly both by periods and by regions. Basic to this analysis was the
grouping of all careers listed in the Dictionary into three main headings
with many subdivisions (Table 141). These are: (1) Political Culture,
including those prominent in government and politics, law, and war; (2)
General Culture, including those prominent as leaders in religion and
philanthropy, education, literature, medicine, art, science, and in social
movements; and (3) Technology and Economic Production, including
leaders in engineering, invention, finance and commerce, industry, agricul-
ture, crafts, transport and communication. Last comes a small group called
(4) Others and composed of explorers, outlaws, famous athletes, etc. The
classification of notable men according to the functions performed in the
culture differs greatly from the task of setting up an occupational distri-
bution. Table 141 shows how characterizations given by the Dictionary
were translated into this scheme. Notables listed as distinguished in sev-
eral fields were distributed fractionally as, for example, George Washing-
ton was listed as one-half statesman and one-half general.
Before the Civil War the avenues leading to fame were somewhat dif-
ferent as may be seen from Figure 271. Leadership in our early period
centered in statecraft, law, and war. After 1865 Political Culture shows
Table 141. Functional Classification of Notables by Callings
1
Political Culture
Government: statesman, president, senator, governor, diplomat, legislator, mayor.
Politician: political leader, party leader.
Army: soldier, general, Indian fighter, spy.
Navy: naval officer, privateersman.
General Culture
Religion and Philanthropy: clergyman, theologian, bishop, missionary, apostle of peace, philanthropist, religious worker, humani-
tarian, masonic ritualist, reformer, settlement worker, relief worker.
Education: educator, teacher, professor, lecturer, orator, librarian, philosopher.
Literature: author, writer, poet, playwright, almanac maker, publicist, newspaperman, journalist, critic, editor, lexicographer.
Medicine: physician, surgeon, hygienist, epidemiologist, ophthalmologist, dentist, veterinary.
Art: artist, sculptor, architect, musician, dancer, singer, engraver.
Science: astronomer, geographer, chemist, naturalist, anatomist, hydrographer, geologist, metallurgist, mathematician, stat-
istician, ethnographer, philologist, scholar, economist, sociologist.
Leaders of Movements: labor leaders, labor agitators, Revolutionary leaders: Revolutionary heroine. Revolutionary patriots,
signers of Declaration of Independence, women suffragists, loyalist, patriot, unionist, Mother of ^Confederacy, secessionist,
and abolitionist.
Ill
Technology and Economic Production
Engineer: civil, mechanical engineer.
Inventor.
Commerce: merchant, trader, slave trader, fur trader, chandler, bookseller, business man.
Finance: banker, financier, insurance man.
Industry: manufacturer, ice king, meat packer, mechanic, lithographer.
Agriculture: planter, farmer, pomologist, horse-breeder, cattle man, agriculturist.
Crafts: carpenter, cabinet maker, silversmith, glass blower, printer, glazer.
Transport and Communications: Transport: R. R. builder, R. R. director, shipbuilder; Communication: organizer of telephone
and telegraph systems.
Aviation: aviator, pioneer in aviation.
IV
Others
Explorers: traveler, explorer, pioneer, scout, colonial ranger, frontiersman, trapper.
Adventurer: bad man, desperado, burglar.
Athletics and Sports: tennis player, coach, horse racer, baseball player.
Source: Adapted from Dumas Malone (ed.). Dictionary of American Biography, New York, 1939, by Rupert B. Vance, "The
Geography of Distinction: The Nation and Its Regions 1790-1927," Social Forces, XVIII (December, 1939), 173.
452
ALL THESE PEOPLE
the greatest decline, falling from 43.5 to 28.1 percent of the total. Preemi-
nence passed in the second period to General Culture which increased its
share of the total number of notables from 41 to 53.7 percent. All items
in all fields of General Culture increased except religion and leaders of
movements. Technology and production increased its share of the famous
from 13 to 16.6 percent, but in spite of our economic achievements, indus-
try and the crafts seem underrepresented, in the Dictionary. The difficulty
of achieving note in these fields may indicate that here achievement is as
much a matter of group cooperation as of exceptional leadership.
Regional contrasts are notable and in the main are what might be ex-
pected. The Northeast in the first period shows the greatest concentration
of its leadership in General Culture, 45.7 percent compared with 25.8
percent for the Southeast (Figure 272). Religion leads all fields of dis-
tinction in the Northeast region embracing 357 notables, 16.4 percent of
all its great in the first period. Southern born notables were concentrated
in Political Culture where 63 percent of all its leaders were developed as
compared with only 37.6 percent for the Northeast. In law the variation
in favor of the Southeast was not so great, 15.2 compared with 13.8 per-
cent; but in government the Southeast's lead was 29 to n percent. In war
the same region led 18.8 to 12.8 percent. In technology and production
the distribution favored the Northeast, 15 to 6.2 percent.
In spite of the decline in political development during the second
period, the Southeast had 50.5 of its leaders in this field as compared with
only 21.8 percent for the Northeast and 29.4 percent for the Middle States
(Figure 273). No region had so large a proportion of its notables in any
Figure 271. The Percentage Distribution of American Leaders by Phase
of Culture in Which They Won Fame in Two Periods
Oo V£Rf**4C A/T* IS-*
Law i*.o
Wa m - /*#
ZCLtGIOH- t+t
t/TCKATt/tte *♦
MeotcwC'S*
A*f3-»
£OtfCATtO»
as
Science
3-0
N 5
H U «• «•
i ; : : ;
A.
i
Or*£*»
'• \
A- Ne7AOLC3 Diad Btroxf /366
3' Mojablio Dca* In /666 an* Am*.
Gove*.w**c*iT- it.x
Law «»
Wa
o. - 0.0
llT€K.ATUMie-li9
ZCLt + H,*
'10.7
Cs>UCAY<OH'»S
JcitMct « r.A,
A*t~ T.Q
MmciNi-t*
flNAMtt 4
CoM*icm*e-4-i
•
«
B.
■ t
:
J
XT
!
1 5
«
1 1 r~
Source: See Table 141.
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 453
calling as the South had in these three: government, 21.7 'percent; war
15.3 percent; and law, 13.5 percent. In General Culture the Northeast in
this period had 58 percent of its native-born leaders; the Southeast only
37.3. By now the Middle States had 53 percent of their native-born in this
field. The proportion of religious leaders declined still further, being out-
stripped by literature in every region. In the Northeast, in fact, 674 writ-
ers, 12.3 percent of the total, composed the largest single brace of notables
in the region. Scientists reached as high as 8 and 9 percent of all notables
in the Northeast and Middle States but remained at only 4 percent in the
Southeast. In this period educators and artists also loomed larger in all
regions.
Economic culture also claimed a greater share of the famous, 1 7.5 per-
cent in the Northeast, 15 percent in the Middle States. Here again the
South lagged with only 10 percent. Five and four-tenths percent of the
Northeast's distinguished were in commerce and finance as compared with
only 2.5 percent for the Southeast. The Northeast produced 279 noted
inventors and engineers as compared with only 37 for the Southeast. Yet
in spite of its agrarian culture the South had only 2.5 percent of its notables
listed as outstanding in agriculture.
Figure 272. The Occupational Distribu-
tion of American Leaders by Regions
before i 866
Figure 273. The Occupational Distribu-
tion of American Leaders by Regions
after 1866
5
■ _ * |:'"
EX
zr
EX
Source: See Table 1 4.1.
454 ALL THESE PEOPLE
The Old South produced fewer leaders according to its population than
other areas. If we should take into account the Negro population and their
inability to rise to positions of distinction in this period the region's dis-
crepancy would be much greater. In addition these leaders were concen-
trated in political culture where as much as any group they aided in estab-
lishing the early Nation. When the region lost political preeminence after
the Civil War it lacked a tradition of leadership in education, science, eco-
nomics, and the technical arts adequate to hasten its economic and cultural
development.
The transition to the second period showed that, while in the Southeast
the proportion of leaders was increasing in general economic culture, the
region had already fallen behind the newly developed Middle States ex-
cept in the fields of government, law, and military leadership (Figure 273).
THE MIGRATION OF NOTABLES
There remains the question as to how well migration of notables served
to distribute leadership over the Nation. Despite the great mobility of our
population, Figure 274 shows that the great majority of our notables lived
out their lifetime and attained distinction in the State in which they were
born. Of 2,880 native whites who completed notable careers before 1866,
63.5 percent remained in their native States, 23.5 percent migrated within
the region of birth and only 13 percent migrated to another region. The
greatest movement, that of 171 persons, was into the developing Middle
States, the least movement was that of 26 notables to the already developed
Northeast (Figure 274). From the migrations of the famed the Northeast
suffered a net loss of 2395 all other regions gained. If the distinguished
men of foreign birth are added, the migration loss of the Northeast be-
comes a gain, since the mass of foreign migration went to that region.
The next period of our history shows an increase of interregional mobil-
ity. Of the 7,634 whose careers were completed after January 1, 1866,
59.2 percent remained in the State of birth, 21.6 percent migrated within
the native region, and 19.2 percent migrated to other regions. In the in-
terchange the Northeast suffered a net loss of 422 notables, the Southeast
a net loss of 228 notables, the Middle States a net gain of 244 notable
people. All other regions — Northwest, Southwest, and Far West — gave
birth to only 70 notables (all after 1865) and lost only 28 of these to other
regions (Figure 274). They received however 392 notables from other
regions, giving them a net gain of 364 notables. Seventy-three of these
moved early, and had completed their careers before 1866 (Figure 275).
Figure 275 shows that apart from the foreign immigration the North-
east was the least dependent on imported leadership; the Middle and
Western regions the most. As may be expected, the Southeast took a
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 455
Figure 274. Mobility of American Lead-
ers Born within Three Regions by
Periods
□
Figure 275. Source by Region of Birth of
American Leaders Resident in Three Re-
gions before and after 1865
D<
•— — E9i
A' TH0I* — ,
»"» mirtmi .«,,
Source: See Table 1 4.1.
smaller proportion of its leadership from other regions in the second
period. In the post-war period the Southeast had 132 leaders, including
some carpetbaggers, who were born in the Northeast.
In both periods the Northeast exported the most talent, some 1,024
souls including many ministers and teachers; the Southeast came next with
468, including many leaders in statecraft, law, and war. Both the greatest
total movement and the greatest net migration of notables have been to
the Middle States, 733 and 415 respectively. One of the handicaps of the
Southeast was its failure to secure a proportional share of the distinguished
men of foreign birth. To determine to what environment should go the
credit for developing migrating talent — to the State of birth or to the State
of achievement — is beyond the scope of our analysis.
RECENT TRENDS IN THE BIRTH AND MIGRATION OF MEN OF TALENT,
I897-I9363
No biographical dictionary can presume to assay the worth of men now
"Adapted from H. L. Geisert, "The Trend of the Interregional Migration of Talent: The Southeast.
1899-1936," Social Forces, XVIII (October, 1939), 41-47- See also his The Balance of Interstate Migra-
tion in the Southeast, 1 870-1 930, with Special Reference to the Migration of Eminent Persons (unpublished
doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina, 1938), p. 125.
456
ALL THESE PEOPLE
living, but it has been customary for studies to rely on the listings in Who's
Who in America as an index to the production and migration of contem-
porary men of talent. The work of H, L. Geisert in 1938 sheds light on
the region's trends in leadership from 1899 to 1936. This study was lim-
ited to white population since the number of Negroes sketched in the period
was only 0.3 percent of the total.
Table 142. Net Migration of Persons Sketched in Who's Who in
America, the Southeast, 1 899-1 937
Number
born in
region
Number
resident
in region
Net Migration
Year
Number
born in
region
Number
resident
in region
Net Migration
Year
(Number)
(Percent)
(Number)
(Percent)
1899-1900....
1901-1902....
1903-1905....
1906-1907....
1908-1909....
1910-1911....
1912-1913....
1914-1915....
1916-1917....
1918-1919....
1,051
1,397
1,624
1,852
1,834
1,911
2,159
2,544
2,664
2,883
749
1,057
1,284
1,348
1,311
1,384
1,507
1,865
1,959
2,031
-302
-340
-340
-504
-523
-527
-652
-679
-705
-852
-28.7
-24.3
-20.9
-27.2
-28.5
-27.6
-30.2
-26.7
-26.5
-29.6
1920-1921 . .
1922-1923 . .
1924-1925 . .
1926-1927..
1928-1929. .
1930-1931..
1932-1933..
1934-1935..
1936-1937..
1899-1937..
2,983
3,087
3,246
3,478
3,856
4,065
4,161
4,262
4,322
53,379
2,062
2,124
2,345
2,643
2,983
3,193
3,288
3,404
3,487
40,024
-921
-963
-901
-835
-873
-872
-873
-858
-835
-13,355
-30.9
-31.2
-27.8
-24.0
-22.6
-21.5
-21.0
-20.1
-19.3
-25.0
Source: Adapted from H. L. Geisert, "The Trend of the Interregional Migration of Talent: The Southeast, 1899-1936. Social
Forcet. XVIII (October, 1939), 43.
From 1899 to 1936 (Table 142) Geisert shows that the Southeast ex-
perienced a net loss of 13,355 distinguished persons. In proportion the net
loss of eminent persons was 25 percent, nearly three times as great as the
rate of loss of the native white population as a whole. Table 142 shows
that by periods the loss has reached as high as 31 percent but that in re-
cent years it has fallen below 20 percent of the region's resident notables.
At the same time that the region has been reducing its net loss of talent
by migration it has been producing a proportionately larger number of
notables in recent years.
The average age of those listed in Who's Who is around 56 years.
Relating eminent persons to period of birth, Geisert found that from 1870
to 1886 the number born in the Nation increased from 20,842 to 28,0385
in the Southeast, from 2,983 to 4,322.
Relating the birth of notables to the number of native white women
of childbearing age we find (Figure 276) that the birth rate of notables
in the Nation 1850 to 1886 rose from 22.1 to 39.4 per 10,000 native white
women 20-44. In tne region the rate rose from 13.5 to 30.3. Although
below the Nation's rate, the Southeast's production of talent increased at a
much sharper rate. Between 1870 and 1886, the Southeast showed a steady
increase in the number of native-born achieving eminence, and, in addi-
tion, continued to contribute a larger and larger proportion of the total
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 457
number of distinguished persons born in the United States. Between 1870
and 1886, the ratio of region's percentage of nationally eminent persons
to its percentage of the women of childbearing age increased by 5.1.
Not only did the Southeast increase its yield of distinguished persons
during the period, but it was able to attract a larger proportion of the emi-
nent people living in the United States. In 1900, 25.6 percent of the na-
tive white population of the United States lived in the Southeast 5 by 1936,
only 24 percent of this group resided in the region. In 1900, 9 percent of
the eminent persons in the United States lived in the Southeast, but by
1936, 1 1.3 percent of this group were living in the region (Table 143).
The gain in eminent residents, however, has not paralleled the increase
in the production of eminent native-born. Whereas a steady increase for
each decennial period was observed in the case of the regional yield of dis-
tinguished persons, a steady percentage increase in eminent residents has
occurred only since 1922. Between 1902 and 19 10, there was a steady
decline in the percentage of the Nation's eminent persons living in the
Southeast. This trend was temporarily reversed after 19 12, but again a
slight decline occurred after 191 8. Since that time, an appreciable increase
in the percentage of notable residents has been evident. In 1900, the ratio
of the region's percentage of the Nation's eminent persons to its percentage
of the Nation's native white population was 0.35, and by 1936, it had
increased to 0.47.
Figure 276. Birth Rates of Who's
Who Notables per 10,000 Native-
White Women of Childbearing
Age, United States and Southeast,
1850-1890
Source: H. L. Geisert op. cit., in Table 142.
458
ALL THESE PEOPLE
An examination of the data for the individual States of the Southeast
reveals widespread differences in the production of eminent persons, al-
though the rankings of the eleven States changed but little during the 38-
year period (Figure 277). At the beginning of the period, South Carolina,
which ranked first at both the beginning and the end of the period, was
producing proportionately four times as many notables as was Arkansas,
which was in last place. However, by the close of the period, the differences
between the two States, which still retained the same relative positions,
was less marked. By 1936, South Carolina had produced approximately
three times as many living eminent persons as Arkansas. South Carolina
was the only State to have a ratio of notables in excess of its share of the
national population before 1870, and during the last two biennial periods,
it had a higher ratio than had been attained by any other State of the
region at any time. Virginia was the only other State to have a similar
ratio for more than two biennial periods and by 1936, it had displaced
Florida in second position. By the end of the period, Mississippi had
moved up to third place, North Carolina was in fourth position, and
was followed by Florida and Georgia. Nine of the eleven States were
Figure 277. Ratios of Eminent Persons Born in the Southeast
by States, 1850-1860 and 1884-1886*
MP ^■^■^■■■^■■d'i
J
IM.U. r
1 — 1 1 — 1 — 1 — 1 i 1
J.U. : ■" ~" — 1
Ga N**"*"**»L- 1,
| , , 1 1 1 1 I1 '
[/,, BBJBJMriflrtfflfrlBl
r\u.
'oHBann^^^
1 enn.r
Ain ntaran^rti
Ala i
n A 1 c • c MKHBMamKHBMH^^EMHHSBW
MI55. r 1
La. rg^wMw»
8B 1850-
I 1 i&AA.
860
flflfi
ArK. P*-"-1 — 'i
• 1 1 1 r
1
out?
.0 .10 .20 .50 .40 .50 .60 .70 .80 .30 100 1.10 120 130 1.40 150
*Note: This ratio is the percentage that each State has of the Nation's Who's Who born within its border
divided by the States percentage of all native-white women of childbearing age for the period.
Source: See Tables 142, 14.3.
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 459
Table 143. Ratios of the Percentage of United States Notables Living
in the Southeast to the Percentage of the
Total Population, 1 900-1 936
Eminent
Native white
Population of
Eminent
People in the
Native white
population of
the Southeast
Eminent
persons living
South or per-
cent of the
Ratio of
Year
population of
the United
or percent of
persons living
in United
column 7
the Southeast*
States*
the U. S. total
in Southeast!
Statest
U. S. total
to column 4
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
1900
10,504,686
41,053,417
25.6
749
8,326
9.0
.35
1902
10,909,505
42,740,449
25.5
1,057
11,137
9.5
.37
1904
11,314,324
44,427,481
25.5
1,284
14,016
9.2
.36
1906
11,719,143
46,114,513
25.4
1,348
15,770
8.5
.34
1908
12,123,962
47,801,545
25.4
1,311
15,873
8.3
.33
1910
12,528,783
49,488,575
25.3
1,384
16,997
8.1
.32
1912
12,927,482
51,275,251
25.2
1,507
18,215
8.3
.33
1914
13,326,181
53,061,927
25.1
1,865
20,790
9.0
.36
1916
13,724,880
54,848,603
25.0
1,959
21,257
9.2
.37
1918
14,123,579
56,635,279
24.9
2,031
21,351
9.5
.38
1920
14,522,279
58,421,957
24.9
2,062
23,045
8.9
.36
1922
15,020,385
60,764,888
24.7
2,124
23,809
8.9
.36
1924
15,518,491
63,107,819
24.6
2,345
24,891
9.4
.38
1926
16,016,597
65,450,750
24.5
2,643
26,394
10.0
.41
1928
16,514,703
67,793,681
24.4
2,983
28,234
10.6
.43
1930
17,012,812
70,136,614
24.3
3,193
29,148
11.0
.45
1932
17,510,918
72,479,545
24.2
3,288
30,009
11.0
.46
1934
18,009,024
74,822,476
24.1
3,404
30,510
11.2
.47
1936
18,507,130
77,165,407
24.0
3,487
30,835
11.3
.47
•Estimates based on United States Census, Population, 1900-1936.
Who's Who in America, 1899-1936.
Source: Adapted from Geisert, op. cit., p. 45.
producing proportionately more notables at the end of the period ; only
two states, Florida and Kentucky, registered an actual decrease in the ratio
of eminent persons to women of childbearing age (Figure 277).
While changes in the productivity of the several States indicate changes
in the opportunities in these States, the proportion of eminent residents is
undoubtedly a better criterion of social and economic opportunities. Al-
though there occurred a lessening of the differences between the States in
the yield of eminent persons during the 38-year period, a reversal of this
trend was evidenced in the case of eminent residents. At the beginning of
the century, Florida, which during the entire period had a higher propor-
tion of distinguished residents than any other State, had proportionately
three times as many eminent residents as Arkansas, which was in last posi-
tion. In the ensuing years, the differences between the several States be-
came greater and, by the end of the period, Florida had a ratio nearly
seven times that of Arkansas. While Florida has occupied an unique posi-
tion, the trend is nevertheless evidenced by a comparison of the standings
of the other States of the region. Louisiana, in second place at the begin-
ning of the period, had approximately twice the proportionate number of
eminent residents as had Arkansas. At the end of the period, Virginia,
which had moved up to second position, had proportionately nearly four
times as many eminent residents as Arkansas. At the end of the period, six
States had attracted a larger proportionate number of distinguished res-
idents, two States, South Carolina and Mississippi, remained unchanged,
460
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 278. Ratios of the Percentage of the Nation's Eminent Persons
Resident in the Southeast by States, 1 900-1 902, and 1 934-1 936*
.0 .10 .20 .30 40 .50 .60 .70 .80.30 1.00 1.10 120 1.30 1.40 150
•Note: This ratio is the percentage that each State had of the Nation's Who's Who resident within its
borders divided by the State's percentage of the total native-white population for the period.
Source: See Tables 12, 143.
and three States, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Arkansas, had relatively fewer
eminent residents than at the beginning of the period (Figure 278).
Although the Southeast contained a smaller proportion of the total
number of native white women of childbearing age in the United States
at the end of the period, it was producing a larger proportion of the emi-
nent people born in the United States. Between 1870 and 1886, the South-
east showed a steady increase in its proportionate yield. Since the region
was able to increase its contribution to the total number of notables in the
United States in the face of a heavy loss of eminent individuals by migra-
tion, it would appear that the reserve supply of undeveloped ability in
the region was more than sufficient to replace any losses of developed talent.
The actual increase in the yield of notables in a number of States as well
as the region as a whole indicates an increase in opportunities to achieve
eminence.
Geisert's study shows that not only was the Southeast able to increase
its yield of distinguished persons, but it attracted a larger proportion of
the eminent people in the United States. The rapid increase in the number
of eminent people resident in the Southeast since 1920 would appear to indi-
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 461
cate a diminishing of the migration of this class of people from the region.
Nevertheless, the gain in notable residents has not equalled the increase
in the production of distinguished persons. If the increase in eminent
residents, as well as the increase in the yield of notables, is indicative
of greater opportunities within the region, there may well be reason to
anticipate that the trend will continue in the future, and that at some not
too distant date, the Southeast may be able to offer adequate opportunities
for the development of its distinguished offspring.
PROFESSIONAL PERSONS AS INDEX OF LEADERSHIP4
Certainly not all leaders belong to the professions any more than all
professional persons qualify for leadership. More than in any other group
in the occupational statistics, however, they may serve as an index of the
proportion of leaders, specialists, and technically qualified persons to be
found in the various regions.
Kenneth Evans in his study found that the professions ranked lowest
in the Southeast. In Edwards' social economic classification (Chapter 11,
Figure 94), professional persons in 1930 made up 6 percent of the gain-
Figure 279. The Number of Professional Persons per 100,000
Population, United States, 1940
Source: Sixteenth Census of the United Slates, 1940, Series P-6, P-Il, State Summaries.
4 Adapted from Kenneth Evans, "Some Occupational Trends in the South," Social Forces, XVII
(December, 1938), 184-190. See also his Changing Occupational Distribution in the South with Special
Emphasis on the Rise of Professional Services (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of North
Carolina, 1938).
462
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Figure 280. Percentage Increase in Number of Professional Persons
per 100,000 Population, United States, 1910-1930
Source: See Table 144.
Figure 281. Percentage Change in the Number of Professional
Persons, United States, 1930- 1940
Source: Kenneth Evans, op. cit.; Sixteenth Census of the United Stales, 1940, Series P-6, P-ll.
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 463
fully employed population of the Nation, ranging from 4.1 percent in the
Southeast to 7.8 percent in the Far West.
Figure 279 ranks the States according to the number of professional
persons per 100,000 population in 1940. The range was from 3,491 for the
Far West to 1,756 for the Southeast. California and New York rank the
highest with 3,745 and 3,673, Mississippi the lowest with 1,400. The
proportionate increase in professional persons from 19 10 to 1930 is shown
in Figure 280. The Southeast led all regions with a gain of 46.8 percent
Florida and the Carolinas led all the States with over 66 percent increase,
while Nevada lagged with 4.2. Figure 281 shows that this increase con-
tinued through the depression for all but four of our States. Both southern
regions outran the national rate of gain with Delaware and Louisiana lead-
ing. The Far West may be approximating the saturation point in profes-
sionals, for it gained only 2 percent.
Kenneth Evans, in his study in this field felt that the southern regions
offered the greatest possibility of accelerated changes in occupational dis-
tribution in the future, both because of their present relatively low number
of such workers in proportion to population and because of recent expan-
sion in nearly all professional services. The Southeast, with 1,568 profes-
sional persons per 100,000 population in 1930, fell below the corresponding
ratio for the Nation and all other regions, except the Southwest, for the
earlier census period, 19 10. The extent of this lag in multiplying job op-
portunities on new levels of employment and in making available impor-
tant services in the professional field was further emphasized by the fact
that the two southern regions showed the highest rates of increase for the
20-year period covered.
This composite lag for the southern regions in number of professional
persons was the result of an almost uniform lag in each of the separate pro-
fessional services that go to make up the total group of professional per-
sons. A comparison of the regions and the Nation (1930) in the number
per 100,000 population in certain specified professional pursuits bears out
this statement (Table 144). In only two professional groups, clergymen
and county agents, did the Southeast rank higher than the Nation as a
whole. Its lowest proportional rank was in scientific services, chemists, and
technical engineers. Extreme differences were found among the regions
in the number per 100,000 population of workers engaged in performing
most of these services which have come to be regarded as increasingly im-
portant to the welfare of people, both urban and rural.
The low ranks of the southern regions in relative number of profes-
sional persons emphasize the continued need for expansion of professional
services in these regions, while recent increases indicate a trend in the
464
ALL THESE PEOPLE
Table 144. Number per 100,000 Population in Specified Professional
Pursuits, 1930
Professional pursuit
Actors and showmen
Architects
Artists, sculptors, and teachers of art. . ,
Authors, editors, and reporters
Chemists, assayers, and metallurgists...
Clergymen
College presidents and professors
Dentists
Designers, draftsmen, and inventors. . . .
Lawyers, judges, and justices
Musicians and teachers of music
Osteopaths
Photographers
Physicians and surgeons
Teachers
Teachers (athletics and dancing). . . .
Teachers (school)
Technical engineers
Civil engineers and surveyors
Electrical engineers
Mechanical engineers
Mining engineers
Trained nurses
Veterinary surgeons
County agents, home demonstrators, etc
Librarians
Social and welfare workers
Chiropractors
Healers
Religious workers
United
States
61.3
17.9
46.6
52.4
38.3
121.2
50.4
57.8
83.7
130.7
134.5
5.0
32.2
125.2
865.5
15.2
850.3
184.3
83.1
47.1
44.3
9.7
239.6
9.7
4.5
24.1
25.4
9.7
14.4
25.5
South-
east
27.3
7.1
12.0
23.0
13.3
135.6
43.0
29.3
16
60.
1.
13.
95.
720.1
7.5
712.6
81.5
50.1
17.1
11.4
2.9
129.6
5.7
6.8
8.3
12.8
3.5
4.2
13.8
South-
west
49.5
11.2
20.7
36.5
21.6
136.8
49.6
33.5
25.0
121.1
96.5
3.6
24.4
108.0
889.9
10.7
879.2
127.1
75.5
24.0
17.5
10.1
137.1
7.4
7.0
11.0
11.6
12.4
9.9
20.1
North-
east
80.9
26.4
69.0
66.3
57.8
107.8
47.4
66.3
136.3
152.1
167.0
3.9
36.2
138.0
851.6
18.8
832.7
242.7
95.8
72.5
63.6
10.8
313.1
6.2
2.2
28.9
34.9
6.9
15.8
32.3
Middle
States
49.0
16.7
48.5
46.6
40.6
118.8
51.7
66.
101.5
126.4
134.3
6.6
34.1
130.0
878.4
14.5
863.9
185.3
75.0
46.4
56.5
7.4
235.8
14.6
3.9
27.8
27.0
10.8
14.3
24.1
North-
west
36.0
7.1
18.2
47.8
22.9
141.1
70.8
60.0
20.7
117.6
118.9
9.1
30.7
113.6
1,240.4
12.4
1,228.0
124.7
68.6
26.4
15.1
14.6
213.6
20.4
7.6
21.6
13.8
17.2
11.3
28.6
Far
West
162.7
30.7
93.9
111.8
44.0
111.6
61.4
94.1
91.8
171.6
263.8
11.2
71.4
159.6
958.7
31.5
927.2
332.5
173.7
68.2
60.0
30.6
372.4
10.3
6.2
46.9
36.7
27.2
45.5
38.2
Source: Adapted from Kenneth Evans, "Some Occupational Trends in the South," Social Forces, 17 (December, 1938), p. 189.
Table 145. Negro Professional Workers per 1,000 Negro Population,
United States and the Six Major Regions, 1930
Total
Negro
population
Negro professional
worker
Area
Total
Negro
population
Negro professional
worker
Area
Number
Rate per
1,000
Number
Rate per
1,000
United States
11,891,143
1,570,859
7,778,473
1,040,761
115,765
18,918
63,823
12,461
9.74
12.04
8.20
11.97
Northwest
1,181,115
97,229
90,638
132,068
14,466
1,593
1,720
2,784
12.25
16 38
Far West
District of Columbia.
18.98
21.08
Note: Classification of "professional workers" as used by Alba M. Edwards of the Bureau of the Census.
Source: Adapted from Kenneth Evans, Changing Occupational Distribution in the South with Special Emphasis on the Rise of
Professional Services (unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of North Carolina, 1938), Table XLVI.
direction of "catching up" with the rest of the Nation. There is nothing
inherent, however, in this trend to guarantee its automatic continuation to
the point of desirable balance within the region or among the regions in
the Nation. Underlying the high percentage of increase in relative num-
ber of professional persons in the southern regions is, of course, the ex-
tremely low point from which the trend starts. And there is, in addition,
the fact that at the end of the period in 1940, there still existed wide differ-
entials between the South and the Nation in occupational distribution and in
the availibility of all needed professional services.
Table 145 shows that the Negroes in the Southeast had the lowest pro-
LEADERSHIP AND CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 465
portion of professional workers of any region, 8.2 per 1,000 Negroes as
compared with 19 in the Far West. Figures 96 and 97 in Chapter 11 also
indicate under-representation of Negroes in these ranks. In spite of the
lower numbers of Negroes in professional services and of their greater
difficulty in rising into jobs on upper social-economic levels, the elimination
of Negroes does not change the ranking of the southern regions in compari-
son with the Nation and with other regions. The achieving of occupational
balance includes, but is obviously a more complex task than that of insur-
ing equal cultural participation for the Negro population of the South, as
difficult as that may be.
The obverse of the Southeast's lack of leadership is the fact that popu-
lation increase in the region, in large measure, means the banking up of
population in occupational levels where job opportunities are relatively
limited. The war brought new dynamics into this static situation, and thus
renewed the challenge that occupational redistribution offers both to the
Nation and the region.
Several conclusions emerge from the study. Defined in terms of fame,
leadership appears to diminish as we draw near the present. This may be
the familiar optical illusion of the greatness of the distant founding fathers.
But when measured in mass terms of simple talent and professional compe-
tence, leadership appears to be increasing both in the Nation and the region.
The Southeast never equaled New England in leadership and it had a
greater rate of decline as the fateful decade of i860 approached. In talent
and professional competence the Southeast still lags behind the Nation but
its rate of gain shows not only the need but the possibility of closing the gap.
Evans' analysis showed that the problem of leadership and that of oc-
cupational mobility are closely related. The Southeast needs leadership if
it is to achieve a more normal occupational distribution for its people. As
the redistribution levels up the occupational hierarchy some few from the
ranks of professions and specialists will develop that special talent, once
characteristic of the South, which carries on to leadership for the economic
and cultural development of whole masses of the people.
PART V
SOCIAL POLICY AND REGIONAL-NATIONAL
PLANNING
CHAPTER 3 I
THE FORMULATION OF REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULA-
TION POLICY
Throughout preceding chapters we have noted the relation of the con-
ditions discussed to public policy. The discussion has raised questions that
affect the future development of our national policy in the fields of agri-
culture and land utilization, in industrial location, unemployment and in-
come distribution, in public health, public education, and social security. In
the main, it can be said that the basic problems treated in this volume bear
on two large fields in which national policy has not yet been formulated.
These are the areas of (i) population policy and (2) the policy of regional-
national development. It is our contention that sufficient factual materials
are being developed in these fields to justify initial analysis of the issues
involved in the determination of national policy.
SOCIAL RESEARCH AND POLICY FORMULATION
In a democracy the determination of policy is regarded as a rational
process involving the adjustment of various group interests to the general
welfare in terms of national goals to be sought. Basic to the process are
the (1) social values held by members of a given society, (2) the indica-
tion of new goals to be sought, and (3) the readjustment of policy and pro-
cedures toward the new goals. The first indication that new goals should
be sought is often given by research which demonstrates the conditions of
maladjustment which have developed under previous social policies.
If the conditions disclosed by research prevent the realization of values
held by the society or if they impinge on policies already adopted, they
threaten national and group interests sufficiently to lead to the considera-
tion of new policies. On this basis we can say that social research itself is
affected with a public interest and bears a function in policy making.
When the issues are stated in this fashion it is doubtful whether any large
group in our society would care to challenge the importance of social science
[466]
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 467
in the formulation of public policy. There are, however, many considera-
tions which operate to make the relation more complicated than the above
statement suggests. Many of those who are devoted to the values of re-
search doubt the competence of social scientists to write what we may call
the prescriptions for public policy. This attitude, which is held by many
sociologists and economists, does not involve doubt of the scientific value
of social facts as facts. It is related, among other things, to the danger of
bias involved in the selection of social facts. Since there exists in every
society the danger of confusing individual, class, and group interests with
the national interests, there is the tendency on the part of the public to
confuse the function of the impartial scientist with that of the biased ad-
vocate. It is this confusion which some careful researchers seek to avoid
by confining their work to a bare statement of facts without pointing out
implications and interpretation. A second element closely related to bias
is the fact that no specialist can hope to know or fully appreciate the bear-
ing of other specialisms on his conclusions. Thus, for example, it would be
possible for a majority of the experts in social work to advocate a policy
which the majority of economists would oppose. A third reason for cau-
tion is the gap that exists between public policy and public administration.
Thus many desirable goals are likely to go unrealized in public policy be-
cause of difficulties in administration.
Accordingly whatever competence the social sciences may attain, it is
generally agreed that the determination of public policy does not fall
within their scope. There are many reasons for this conclusion beside the
fact that the world has never been ruled by the philosopher-kings that
Plato visualized in his Re-public. These reasons can be summarized by say-
ing that the social studies aspire to be sciences while the determination of
public policy must remain an art. As an art it involves the compromise of
conflicting claims of rival parties and groups in the interest of the total
welfare. Basic to the scientific viewpoint is the feeling that facts are objec-
tive entities and thus cannot be ruled out of existence by political compro-
mises. By participation in the conflict over policy making, economists and
sociologists have feared to lose the objectivity and freedom from bias essen-
tial to science.
Unlike a work of art which may be regarded as an entity — a good in
itself— the literature of information raises the question: to what end? This
is especially true of social and economic research whose findings are related
to a national and cultural context. Such research may have two possible
implications: (1) It may be designed to arrive at general natural laws or
hypotheses similar to those prevailing in the natural sciences. In this respect
neither sociology nor economics has yet been able, to complete a rounded
468 ALL THESE PEOPLE
picture of the universe in which it operates. (2) On the other hand, re-
search may serve as the basis for the development of public policy in a given
field. This is not the whole purpose of social research as conducted in our
colleges and universities, but its importance may be suggested by the state-
ment that if public policy is not based on information it will obviously be
based on misinformation or none at all.
It is, of course, logical to contend, as some do, that national policy is
normally based on prejudice and emotion and that facts count only as they
serve to reenforce tradition. The mistake involved in this reasoning may be
clarified by saying that while social values, including the national interest
and legal and constitutional commitments, undoubtedly operate to deter-
mine the policies that will be based upon a given set of facts, social facts
themselves serve to determine not only what is feasible but often what is
desirable. Social policy accordingly may be regarded as the conclusion of
a logical syllogism whose major premise is the social values held by the
group and whose minor premise is the social facts in so far as they can be
developed by research.
Obviously, the social values of any society exert a determining force.
The same set of facts, if they existed in Russia and the United States, could
lead to opposite policies simply because of the different sets of values on
which the two governments are predicated. What remains to be pointed
out, however, is that over long periods of time the complex of social values
themselves are subject to rational redirection on the basis of new condi-
tions, new facts, or even of old facts newly discovered.
Thus there exists a certain validity behind the demand that an analysis
of maladjustments in society be accompanied by a discussion of the issues
involved in the reformulation of policy. It is the seriousness of the situation
that gives to research its initial relevance; and it is only by the nature and
profundity of the changes recommended that the reader can judge the
seriousness of the condition discussed. Then there is the question of rela-
tive competence. Admitting that the politician is competent to estimate
the force of public opinion behind the demands of various groups, he may
make use of this knowledge only to solve the question of how best to win
the next election. Knowledge of the facts must go over into the determina-
tion of public policy and here the results of research are the nearest to
competence.
Thus in spite of his modesty the social scientist who uncovers and ana-
lyzes social facts will be asked: What do you recommend? As an honest
man who values his own integrity, as a citizen who admits a public duty,
and as an expert in whose training society has made an investment, the
social scientist after admitting his reservations of ignorance and bias must
indicate his choices of policy for whatever they may be worth. Nor should
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 469
he be overwhelmed by this assumption of high responsibility, for he may
rest assured that even his facts will be discounted by practical men of af-
fairs as impossible theory while his cautious recommendations will be re-
garded as partisan statements by every faction whose interests they oppose.
But if his facts are facts and still disregarded, he may take what consola-
tion he can to himself in the knowledge that they also will count in the
long run to come.
PUBLIC POLICY AND SOCIAL PLANNING
The implementation of social policy is found in the process we have
come to call social planning. What is the nature of planning in a democ-
racy characterized as is our society by a liberal capitalistic economy? In the
first place, as John Dewey once pointed out, the ideal to be sought, is not
a -planned society but a continuously -planning society. There is as far as
we know no permanent solutions to economic and social problems. Society
exists as a continual process of adjustment and readjustment of its multiple
groups and individuals. Unless society is continually adjusting and read-
justing its elements fall so far out of balance that integration and equi-
librium are not achieved. Lags and injustices arise and disequilibrium and
disorganization ensue.
Throughout history the methods of meeting these maladjustments
have been sporadic reforms, revolutions, civil wars, and international war.
William Graham Sumner once defined revolution as a liquidation of the
accumulated maladjustments in the mores. Revolutions sometimes destroy
the mould of society and then break down at the point where they attempt
to carry over to the new economic and political order. To some extent
social planning can be regarded as a new movement that has arisen in
modern society as a result of the failure of older attempts at social change.
It is not Utopian, it is not revolutionary; in some respects it is not even
reformist. Its aim is to prevent the need for these violent changes before
they occur. Its goal is not a definitely planned society, fixed once and for
all, but a continually planning and replanning society. The process itself
is dynamic, for the goal is not static organization but one continually ad-
justing and changing as new goals are set and old ones achieved.
Democracies like other societies must face the danger of crises and wars
but in the more normal course of events it can be said that social planning
had its beginnings in need of governments to plan their budgets ahead.
Social and economic planning as is often said depends on prediction and
control. These measures are involved in the process of balancing appro-
priations and expenditures. In addition, the budget itself comes to be re-
garded not as an accountant's statement but as incorporating long run plans
and measures of control. In adopting these measures government is simply
470 ALL THESE PEOPLE
following the best procedures of business where corporations have found
it necessary to plan policy in advance of current operations.
Scientific knowledge is needed to determine the direction in which
society is likely to move, and control measures are required to effect needed
adjustments. Adjustment and security may be regarded as the keynotes
of society's planning just as they are the goals of free individual initiative
and self-development. Social security as governmental policy may fail if
it attempts to provide social insurance for inefficient economic alignments.
Adjustment is more dynamic, for it represents not only the efforts that in-
dividuals and groups make to remedy their own undesirable situations but
includes the additional incentives and pressures that society may use to
hasten these desirable changes. The processes of seeking more education
and migrating to areas of greater economic opportunity represent individual
adjustments that also operate in the interests of greater economic security
of the total society. By aiding in such adjustments liberal governments can
develop the control measures adequate to social planning in a democracy.
Once assured that processes of continued adjustment are facilitated,
government may then make the attempt to underwrite certain minimum
guarantees against those dangers of unemployment and old age for which
the individual in our society is unable to prove adequate adjustment. No
social security program, however, can hope to succeed in a dynamic world
if it cancels out the push toward adjustment. The assurance of continuing
adjustment and readjustment among the various sections of a national
economy is prerequisite to the success of any system of social security. No
government, however rich, can afford to underwrite the social insurance
for a system held rigid by economic barriers and monopolies. Later we shall
see that these two concepts of adjustment and security have operated in the
development of population policy.
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY
The formulation and articulation of population policy presents addi-
tional difficulties. The adjustment of regional to national needs, the theme
of this chapter is only one factor involved in the equation. While the an-
swer must be sought in terms of population replacements such a policy
must meet three basic criteria. It must make for national survival, it must
serve the goal of economic stability, and it must be democratic.
The United States as Thompson and Whelpton1 point out, had a prac-
tical and effective population policy dating almost from the beginning
of white settlement. That the policy met the first two criteria seems
to be indicated by our history. The tendency of land grants, settlement
1 Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, Population Trends in the United States (New York: Mc-
Graw-Hill Book Company, 1933), chap. XI.
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 47 *
policies, easy immigration, homestead laws, and the slave trade, itself,
were all calculated to increase population numbers. It was by this means
the various communities expected to increase the safety of life, the value of
property, and raise the standard of group living. The first major reversal
in our national policy was signalized by restriction of foreign immigration —
a task which was accomplished by the quota legislation of June 3, 1921,
after debate lasting over five decades.
The same policy that encouraged unrestricted immigration also looked
with favor upon the rearing of large families. This attitude was given offi-
cial sanction in the Federal legislation of 1873 in the so-called "Comstock
Laws" which made use of the Federal power over customs, the mails, and
interstate commerce to suppress the circulation of contraceptive informa-
tion and devices as "obscene literature and articles of immoral use." Be-
tween the nonenforcement of restrictive laws and the breaking of them by
individuals in the sanctity of the family, the influence of anti-contraceptive
legislation in maintaining the birth rate steadily dwindled until the invali-
dation of the law by judicial decision in the New York Superior Court in
1936 (United States vs. Dr. Hannah Stone). Nevertheless this policy un-
doubtedly served to increase class differentials in the birth rate— an effect
not foreseen by its proponents.
As it has developed the effective policy in this country is now (1) one
of restriction by the government ,of population increase from without by
the control of immigration, and (2) restriction by individuals of increase
from within by family limitation. Throughout our history we have with
the aid of immigration obtained sufficient births by reliance on spontaneous
and unregulated fertility to populate a continent. We are now approaching
the position where we will have to plan a population policy.
We cannot hope to accommodate a continually increasing population
but in our present state of knowledge it would seem safe to accept as a
goal the stabilization of our numbers around the level we should reach in
1 960- 1 9 80, some 150 to 160 millions.2 At such a figure manpower will be
adequate for national defense without subjecting us to the Malthusian
pressure of population upon land and natural resources. To* hold our num-
bers stationary even at 1 60 millions will not give us the economic dynamic
we once experienced by virtue of a continually increasing population, but
it will save us from the economic collapse to be feared if population began
a downward spiral.
It is accordingly not the goal of a stable population but the means of its
attainment that must pass the tests of both democracy and economics. Un-
der the assumptions of democracy there are two sets of values to be con-
sidered: individual and collective. Individual values derive from the doc-
s Warren S. Thompson, Population Problems (New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 104.2), p. 4.38.
J.
472 ALL THESE PEOPLE
trines of individual liberty so cherished in our democratic tradition. In
their bearing on population they include the right to marry or refrain from
marriage, free of state coercion, and the right to have few or no children
free from pressure of state power. It is here that the democracies part com-
pany with the totalitarian governments which have not hesitated in this
field to employ the coercive power of the state.
In so far as our population policy is based on democratic assumptions
they have been stated in terms of individual freedom which is taken to mean
the individual's freedom from State interference. Except in the few States
where the Catholic Church is strong this has also meant the freedom of
organized private agencies to agitate for birth control and for private
philanthropy to organize and finance clinics for contraceptive services.
Freedom from governmental restrictions, however, is not freedom from
ignorance or poverty. Even where freedom to limit family size is not re-
stricted by law, it may be distinctly circumscribed by social conditions. The
failure of contraception among those most needing it does not result from
repressive measures on the part of the government, but it is doubtful if
these conditions will be greatly changed short of positive State measures.
This is true in spite of the fact that privately organized birth control agen-
cies have received freedom for educational propaganda and clinical practice.
The extent to which this freedom represents a distinct departure in
policy—a departure so distinct that it would not be tolerated in either
totalitarian or Catholic countries— is shown by their program. The national
organization, the Planned Parenthood Federation of America as the suc-
cessor to the old American League for Birth Control has set up its three
major objectives in the fields of education, medical services, and research.
The Federation's educational program is devoted to calling the attention
of leaders in medicine and the public to the medical, social, and economic
importance of child-spacing programs. In the field of medicine its goal is
to have planned parenthood accepted as a normal part of maternal and
child health programs, whether under the auspices of hospitals, public
health clinics, or in the office of the private practitioner. The research pro-
gram is devoted both to the development of simpler, more effective, and
less expensive techniques of conception control and of measures leading to
the reduction of sterility among those married couples who wish children
and are unable to have them.3
These conditions have brought us to the verge of a new development
in a regional population policy for the South. As in the Nation, this policy
finds its basis in economic needs. The unbalanced man-land ratios of the
Southeast force the necessity of further adjustment on the population in its
8 Richard N. Pierson, M. D., "Planned Parenthood in a War Year," Human Fertility, VII (March
'943), 1-4-
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 473
search for security. These adjustments include forced migration, low wages,
and the necessity for increased industrialization. In addition it is realized
that as more attention is paid to child care and maternal health deaths de-
crease, standards rise, and the birth rate falls. An important factor in this
advance among upper and middle class families has been the freedom of
the family physician to prescribe contraception in private practice.
The public health service has been generally accepted as one means of
bringing medical advances to the general population. What could be more
logical than for the States of the region to pioneer in making birth control
an official part of the public health service? This new policy was signalized
when in 1937 the North Carolina State Board adopted as an optional part
of the county health program a contraceptive service for mothers too poor
to afford family physicians. South Carolina and Alabama have since de-
veloped state programs endorsed by the State medical societies and admin-
istered by the State boards of health. In 1942 four additional State medical
societies — those of Florida, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia —
passed resolutions recommending the provision of child-spacing informa-
tion by private and public health physicians. A survey in 1939 showed that
the Southeast had 136 of the 166 public health contraceptive services then
established in the United States. The development of these services in our
analysis is to be regarded as the beginnings of a regional population policy
in the area of highest fertility.
The effect that this development is likely to have on fertility in rural
areas is shown by an experiment in a coal mining county of West Virginia.4
In Logan County in 193 6- 193 8 contraceptive services were made available
to over 1300 rural nonfarm women, 32 percent of those aged 15-44 m tne
county. This group controlled over 50 percent of the county's fertility.
The uncontrolled chances of conception, it appeared, were no higher in the
Appalachians than elsewhere, but the region's higher birth rates were in-
fluenced by an age of marriage two years younger than the national aver-
age. About a third of the Negroes and a half of the whites had sought to
limit family size before they contacted the service, but their average effi-
ciency of 50 percent had meant a reduction of only 10 to 15 percent in the
chance of conception. After admission to the service, the birth rate among
this group fell 41 percent — a decline that would have reduced the county's
birth rate by 20 percent, if extended to all rural nonfarm women. After
two years, however, only 36 percent of the women were still using the pre-
scribed methods.
The experiment shows the effectiveness of even imperfect methods.
The greater part of the gain in protection was due to increased precautions,
Gilbert Wheeler Beebe, Contraception and Fertility in the Southern Appalachians (Baltimore: The
Williams and Wilkins Company, 1942), especially chaps. Ill and V.
474 ALL THESE PEOPLE
contraceptive exposure increasing 70 to 80 percent as compared with only
20 to 30 percent gain in contraceptive efficiency. Among other things the
experiment indicated that family limitation alone is not a method by which
the region can achieve social and economic parity with the Nation. Such
service it showed should be medical in nature, but the need went far beyond
the protection of a few women against medically contra-indicated preg-
nancy. The policy it was concluded, should be social and economic as well
as therapeutic; and the analysis showed that costs can be reduced 50 per-
cent by integration with public health services already in existence. Similar
experiments with both urban and rural Negroes show that they are willing
and able to make use of such services to improve their health and social
conditions.
There may be little disposition to deny that the implementation of this
policy fits in with our assumptions of democracy and will help to meet the
economic needs of the South. No one is likely to contend, however, that
by itself this departure meets the criteria of a national population policy.
The plain fact is that we cannot hope to hold numbers stable after 1980
unless we can reverse the trend of our national and class fertility. That
we now have population replacements in the United States is due to the
fact that the groups ignorant of contraception and isolated from the strain
of keeping up with urban and middle class standards still have families
large enough to make up the deficit. All attempts based on persuasion
and education to increase fertility in the middle classes and those best
able to provide for children have so far met admitted failure. The two-
child family is becoming the accepted ideal of the middle class.
No society, even under the most favorable mortality conditions, can
maintain itself without a significant proportion of large families. At pres-
ent demographic rates it will require an average of approximately three
children per fertile family to maintain our population. This makes
allowance for those women who do not marry, those who either die or be-
come widowed or divorced before the end of their reproductive life, for
those who prove sterile or childless, and for the children who die before
maturity. Many distributions of family size will yield a self-replacing
population, but all of these require that about 40 percent of the married
women bear four or more children. Differential fertility, it must be real-
ized, is simply evidence of the lag with which family limitation has perco-
lated downward through the social strata. As the process is completed the
birth rate in the Nation may fall below replacements, not likely to rise
again.
"At present," Frank Notestein points out, "as a Nation we are obtain-
ing just enough large families to maintain a stationary population only
REGIONAL-NATIONAL POPULATION POLICY 475
because freedom to limit fertility is withheld from large populations in
our most poverty stricken areas."5 When this freedom is brought to these
populations the birth rate will fall below the replacements, unless we can
develop a population policy that either takes account of the present values
of society or develops new values based on family affection, national sur-
vival, and economic security. Such a policy, if it is to be conceived in
terms of democracy will not place on the least fortunate the burden of
doing the most to maintain population.
In the meantime, as he points out, "there are many couples who want
children and could have them if they had proper medical attention, or if
parenthood entailed less severe economic penalties. This situation points
clearly to the need for a much greater emphasis on the positive aspects of
the freedom of parenthood by both the birth control and the eugenics
movement. Freedom of parenthood which means the freedom to limit
but not to express fertility is at best a negative freedom. Both kinds are
essential to a democratic society that intends to maintain its culture and
stock through the voluntary acceptance of the obligations of parenthood."6
Any policy for population is accordingly part and parcel of our larger
policy, economic and political. Certainly there can be no better touchstone
for our total national policy than this question: Is it conducive to the con-
servation and development of our total human resources? A final emphasis
accordingly is placed on expanding economic opportunity so that by adding
to our total wealth, our maturing population may expect to secure the
means necessary to physical and cultural growth. In this task regional
planning for the South will loom large.
s Frank Notestein, "Some Implications of Current Demographic Trends," Journal of Heredity, XXX
(March, 1939), 125-126.
€ Ibid.
CHAPTER 32
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH
The attainment of a population stabilized at adequate numbers is not to
be regarded as a worthy goal if it is to be done at the cost of the poverty
and ignorance of those who do the most to maintain replacements. If these
handicaps are visited upon the children of the more fertile classes and re-
gions, the quality of oncoming population will suffer further deterioration.
Nevertheless, in view of our need for replacements, the restriction of num-
bers by itself seems at best a negative policy. Granting that children
under present trends may become fewer, positive policy would indicate
the conservation and development of human resources wherever found.
This study of the South suggests that this goal can best be attained by
regional-national planning.
More than anything else the future of the Southeast depends upon the
development of resources and capacities that are as yet largely unrealized.
The region has natural resources and human resources. These forms of
wealth are primary, but for their development they depend upon the build-
ing up of technological resources, institutional resources, and capital re-
sources. The creation of these secondary forms of wealth, as Howard W.
Odum has pointed out, are matters of organization, skill, and previous ex-
perience.1 This is both an economic and a cultural task in which the Nation
is as vitally concerned as the region itself.
THE FUTURE WE WANT
In making plans for our future development it is essential to decide in
what direction the Nation and the region are going. Better still, we should
agree as to the place we want to go. Three questions are involved in this
decision: (1) What do we want? (2) What do we have? and (3) What
must we do to get from what we have to what we want?
1 Howard W. Odum, Southern Regions of the United States (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina
Press, 1936), pp. 337-339.
[476]
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 477
Stated in these terms the question of what the South wants admits of
a very definite answer. The South wants to share the Nation's future. It
is not the existence of regional inequalities that disturbs the South so much.
It is their persistence over the generations. Is this to continue into the in-
definite future, America's dream of equality of opportunity to the con-
trary? In the chances of war things are likely to get worse before they
get better. The South is committed to the prosecution of the war and,
while it cannot contribute its proportionate share of money to the war
effort, it is contributing its proportion of manpower. The South is charac-
teristically optimistic about the war; it is not so optimistic about its place
in the nation's future. The new regionalism is an indication of this trend,
and if one had to phrase its implications it would be in seven words:
Wanted: The Nation's future for the South.
It is a basic contention of the present study that national policy toward
regional development assumes similar goals. The national interest in re-
gional development accordingly is related to such desirable goals as in-
creased economic well-being, equalized cultural and educational opportuni-
ties, and effective national defense. Only on this basis can the Federal
power expect to secure the tax resources which support and the manpower
which defends our national survival.2
In its simplest form the relation of the regions to the Nation is the re-
lation of the parts to the whole — the old problem of securing unity out of
diversity expressed in our motto — "E pluribus unum." In organization
and political administration we have the forty-eight States and their Fed-
eral union but, in the problems of public policy involved in fields like in-
terstate migration, conservation, agriculture, social security, etc., we can
think of areas possessing certain geographic, economic, and social charac-
teristics in common. Thus, for example, we simplify both the problems of
research in land utilization and those of administering agricultural pro-
grams by thinking in broad terms of types of farming regions, covering
many States. So logical is this development that practically all Federal
agencies intrusted with the administration of programs have found it ad-
visable to set up regional areas based on such criteria.3
In the Tennessee Valley Authority the Southeast has the outstanding
development in regional-national planning so far projected in the United
States. The presence in the region of this national project serves to indi-
cate the importance of regional development in the whole national policy.
In defense, in power production, in navigation and flood control and in
2 National Resources Planning Board, Regional Planning, Part XI — The Southeast (Washington, D. C.
U. S. Government Printing Office, 1942), pp. 8-1 1.
National Resources Planning Board, Regional Factors in National Planning and Development (Wash-
ington, D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1935).
478 ALL THESE PEOPLE
economic well-being, national progress and security in a country as large
and diverse as ours is dependent on the integrated development of broad
regional areas.
We cannot discuss planning without considering whether improvement
in the state of technology and the industrial arts would not raise the stand-
ard of living in the Southeast and thus for the Nation. A former director
of the T.V.A. once imagined that Daniel Boone might have sat down with
an Indian hunter of the Tennessee Valley and told him: "There is ten
times as much wealth in the valley as you are getting out of it." Today
with electrification and modern agricultural and industrial methods the
T.V.A. is in the position of saying to the people in the Valley: "There is
ten times as much potential wealth in this region as we are realizing."
The Southeast is only one among many regions that make up our na-
tional domain. While it is recognized that our regional areas are more
likely to develop along complementary than identical lines, the goal of the
process involves a fair degree of equalization and integration in the total
progress of the Nation. Economic security and cultural opportunity are
common goals for all the areas of the Nation. Only as regional needs, re-
sources, and capacities are balanced against each other through full and
free discussion can we arrive at an integrated national policy.
National policy as reflected in the social legislation enacted by Con-
gress in recent years has gone far to implement these values. If one were
to summarize in popular language the intent of this legislation from 1932
to 1942 it might well read as follows: "It is now generally recognized by
the national governments of democratic countries that it is the function
of organized society to make possible the best and fullest use of the 'pro-
ductive resources of the Nation so that every able-bodied man may be
afforded a continuing opportunity to earn, through his productive labor,
a decent living, and to enjoy this living within the institutions of freedom
established and guaranteed by the Nation, thereby promoting the defense
of the Nation, the general welfare, and his own well-being."4 Nor can it
be said that our system of government and our way of life is functioning
properly until every able-bodied man is, in fact and not just in theory,
afforded this continuing opportunity.
These goals are obviously so desirable that the national interest in re-
gional development need only be stated to be recognized. The problem
accordingly becomes one of working out adequate and efficient means to
their accomplishment. Here we enter the field of public policy where it
is desirable to state regional goals and to evaluate the means of reaching
them in terms of national programs.
Programs looking toward these ends may be initiated at the Federal
4 I am indebted to Wilhelm Anderson for this statement of the issues.
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 479
level and adjusted for regional variations in economic and social conditions.
Conversely they may be developed out of regional needs initiated at State
and local government levels and yet demand Federal power and adminis-
tration for their implementation. The important thing is that the Federal
structure of our government as it has evolved is designed to aid regional
progress through programs involving Federal-State relations.
NATIONAL POLICY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
The importance of these issues for future policy is indicated by the ex-
tent to which regional divergencies still prevent the attainment of social
values to which we are committed. Education here serves as an example.
In terms of social values we have long been agreed on the basic principle
of the maintenance of equajjj^^^portunity^among our people wherever
found. Devotion to the value of education, some have claimed, is almost
a fetish among our people. Certainly it is seen as the chief means for the
equalization of opportunity as well as the government's means of protect-
ing itself from the consequences of an ignorant and incompetent citizenry.
Nevertheless all studies of the subject show how much we lack of equaliz-
ing educational expenditures. In spite of well-developed patterns of Fed-
eral grants-in-aid, the relations between our Federal and local governments
were such that during the period of change that characterized the New
Deal no major advances were made. That we have yet to achieve equality
of educational opportunity indicates that regional-national policies are still
to be formulated if we hope to reach the goal set by social values.
Another indication of the trend is the growing impatience with the
term "sectionalism" as applied to regional aspirations. Liberal publicists
in the Nation and the region are willing to argue the merits of regional
plans and proposals, but less and less do the regions deserve to have any
of their worthy ambitions dismissed under the old term "sectionalism."
Sectionalism must be recognized as a possible danger in any country as
large and diverse as our own. It is not always realized, however, that one
of the legitimate aims of national-regional planning is to aid in providing
the conditions that make the development of sectionalism unlikely. Eco-
nomic diversities and inequalities may offer the basis for sectional con-
sciousness and sectional movements. Where the economic interests of cer-
tain areas are sufficiently divergent from those of the Nation and other
major areas, we may expect conflict centers to develop. A diversified econ-
omy equally balanced among the extractive, manufacturing, service, and
financial interests is accepted as primarily essential to a modern nation.
Lack of such balance may so penalize a region that it fails to share in
national prosperity. National strength and unity follow when all regions
have an appreciable stake in enterprises that lead to national prosperity.
48o ALL THESE PEOPLE
Regionalism, it is true, should be regarded as a form of local patriotism,
but like good local self-government it is in alliance with rather than in
opposition to national interests. , Regionalism thus represents a movement
toward national strength. Instead of the old lighting pattern of sectional-
ism which in the end became a divisive movement, the regionalist would
substitute a program of regional-national integration in which the Nation
would gain much of its power from the balance and accommodation of
regional variations.
A GOAL FOR THE FUTURE
In discussing the future we want for the Southeast, it should be pos-
sible to state a common goal so that we can see the subsidiary issues pimply
as means to an end upon which we are agreed. If our experiences with de-
pression and war have meant anything, Howard W. Odum has pointed out,
they have increased our determination "to conserve, develop, and make
more useful those two great sources of the good society, ... our natural
wealth and our human wealth."5
If our desires did not exceed their realization, there would be little
hope for progress in the area. We may begin with the future we want
and then attempt to realize the distance between what is actual and what
is potential and attainable, not tomorrow but in the reasonable future or
a generation or so hence.
Actually, we shall not know how to appraise the resources we have
unless we know what we want to do with them. We must know, as Erich
W. Zimmermann6 pointed out, what kind of society we want to develop
in this region before we can realize what kind of resources we possess.
Natural resources are simply those aspects of the physical environment
which men use to satisfy individual and social needs. Without man's con-
trol and direction, resources lie inert and unused. What people want and
need thus determine not only what use they will make of inert nature;
they determine what portions of their physical environment they will de-
velop and what they will leave untouched.
If we were to make an all-inclusive statement of the regional goal that
best fits with the long-time goal of national planning, it might well be a
higher level of living for the great mass of the South's population.7 Un-
employment, inadequate income, underconsumption, and inefficient use of
natural and human resources are seen as the constituents of a low standard
in a nation as richly endowed as America. "A modern nation," it has been
5 "New Sources of Vitality for the People," Journal of the American Dietetic Association, 14 (June-
Tnly, 1938), 4'7-
""Resources of the South," South Atlantic Quarterly, 32 (July. 1933). 213-226.
7 See the writer's statement in National Resources Planning Board, Regional Planning, Part XI— The
Southeast, pp. 42-43.
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 48 1
pointed out, "can not avoid balancing its total production-consumption
budget. This can be done at a low level with a great deal of unemployment,
inefficiency, and suffering} or it can be done at a high level with full em-
ployment, high efficiency, and a better life for all."8
For the total population, higher standards of living are required not
only to save human resources from the deterioration due to malnutrition,
poor housing and the inadequate satisfaction of cultural needs, but to in-
sure the level of activity necessary to keep the economic mechanism func-
tioning. In the long run it must be realized that the Nation can balance
its budget and carry its fiscal burden only by stabilizing the national in-
come at a high level — -possibly in the case of the United States at approxi-
mately one hundred billion dollars annually. The attainment of such an
income level would serve two functions. It would (1) greatly reduce the
necessity for emergency expenditures and (2) raise the tax base. It would
thus conserve our human resources by balancing consumption at a high
level with the production necessary to assure full employment. In post-
war planning the achievement of this goal seems the only thing likely to
prevent the recurrence of a great depression.
The Southeast is a strategic area in this approach for its population, suf-
fering from real and concealed unemployment, low productivity, and low
income, has a per capita consumption of the goods and services produced
by our industrial economy that is lower than any region in the Nation.
Thus the region's need to balance production and consumption at high lev-
els fits in with desirable national goals.
The hopes and aspirations which any people hold for their region as a
part of the Nation and the world are seen as the necessary major premise
of any regional plan. The regional survey which furnishes the inventory
of resources and capacities is the minor premise of the syllogism whose
conclusion is the regional plan of development.9 In this analysis, then,
population policy is closely integrated with the future of our physical re-
sources and with the economic organization and governmental plans neces-
sary to their fullest utilization and development.
THE FUTURE OF PHYSICAL RESOURCES
We may begin accordingly with some account of what we should expect
from our national wealth. It is something of a paradox to say that in the
Southeast we need a fuller utilization of physical resources for the benefit
of the present generation balanced with fuller conservation for the benefit
of future generations.
8 National Resources Planning Board, After Defense What? (Washington, D. C. : U. S. Government
Printing Office, 1942).
For details see National Resources Planning Board, Regional Planning, Part XI — The Southeast.
Also John V. Van Sickle, Planning for the South, an Inquiry into the Economics of Regionalism (Nash-
ville, Tennessee: Vanderbilt University Press, 1943).
482 ALL THESE PEOPLE
It is a fuller, not a lesser, use of our physical resources that we must
strive for in the Southeast simply because of our need to achieve a higher
standard of living. It must be emphasized moreover that not full use but
abuse is the enemy of conservation. Conservation is not to be defined as
abstinence for the sake of posterity, but rather as living on a replaceable
flow of goods instead of on stored-up capital. Thus stated the distinction is
between the cropping and the mining of resources.
It is fortunate that in its large scale dependence on organic resources
the agrarian Southeast is capable of developing what we may call a flow
economy rather than a store economy. The annual increase of flocks and
herds and the growth of crops, like the flow of water power, comes as an
increment from" the hands of nature without greatly diminishing its capital
store. Sound conservation practices may help to give higher yields for the
present and yet conserve nature's capital endowment for the future. Min-
eral resources, however, must be regarded as a store, for a mine once rifled
is not replaceable. The flow economy of organic life is also violated when
resources of virgin forests, fisheries, and even soils are cleared out at one
fell swoop.
Although it must be realized that these two concepts tend to shade into
each other, the idea of utilizing a flow of energies and resources instead of
rifling a store is valuable in distinguishing between the tendencies of a
short-run and a long-run economy. Water power is accepted as a perfect
example of the use of a flow of energy, but if a water power reservoir is
allowed to silt up it becomes an example of the store economy, for it loses
each year a part of its original capital of stored-up energy. The sign of a
mine, it is said, is a hole in the groun^ and the depletion of minerals is
usually regarded as a good example of the store economy. With the rise of
the junk man and the utilization of scrap, however, we are developing a
continuous flow of resources in the field of metals to supplement the deple-
tion of ores. While this process cannot extend to the conservation of coal
and oil, the transition to the use of water power makes possible a greater
use of energy in the long-run economy.
Plans for future development in the Southeast will thus attempt to
provide for greater utilization and conservation by building up the re-
source base and thus increasing the flow of energy and resources. Resto-
ration of soil fertility and further extension of soil conservation practices
are necessary to provide a continuous flow of agricultural production; fur-
ther extension of scientific forestry in private and public holdings is neces-
sary to provide for the continuous production of timber resources. Those
who plan for wildlife conservation realize that the stock of game will
never again be large enough to admit of its use as an essential food resource.
Here the problem is one of building up natural wealth to the point whece
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 483
the annual increase of game may be used for the recreation of hunters and
fishermen. Scientific forestry, on the contrary, is not reduced to the as-
sumption that we can have lumber only by depleting all the resources of
virgin timber. Continuous operation of forest resources and multiple use
appear entirely feasible. The South's greatest problem in the field of con-
servation of resources is that of soil erosion — a loss that if left unchecked
will threaten the whole basis of the flow economy.
Finally we are led to a consideration of the relation of physical re-
sources to human resources in terms of the long-run implications of a flow
economy. Since our man-land ratio is unbalanced on the side of too many
men and too little good land, one corrective is to increase the quantity of
good land. Land here must be understood in a very broad sense as practically
synonymous with "nature." Hence capital investment in such things as
soil conservation, terracing, increased fertility, better farm buildings, im-
proved oyster beds, better orchards, disease-resistant species of crops, and
purebred livestock is building up the land part of the ratio quite as much
as capital investment in a drainage project, a coal mine or a hosiery mill.
When capital is poured into the land side of the ratio it makes the man side
relatively scarcer and hence more valuable.10
PUBLIC POLICY AND HUMAN RESOURCES IN INDUSTRY
It is the persistence of regional inequalities over the generations that
implements the demands for regional-national planning. In this country
we have over a large area the closest approximation to the assumptions
underlying free individual initiative, namely: free trade, free mobility of
the people, free education, and no legal restrictions on the movements of
goods, capital, and people. If the assumptions underlying laissez-faire
really worked^ the people might have moved out of the South if condi-
tions were hopeless. Industries might have moved in and developed the
region as its resources proved valuable. While these processes of adjust-
ment have taken place, they must be aided by regional-national planning.
Regional variations in resources, productivity, wages, and income are
so great within the Nation and the region that we should not only expect
but encourage the continued flow of both capital and labor. Here the de-
velopment of national policy has come in the integration of the Federal
and State employment services in what amounts to a program of guided
migration. Spontaneous population movements will continue but they need
no longer be based on false information or no information. In addition,
the F.S.A. and the W.P.A. have cooperated in experiments in subsidizing
the migration of farm workers from overcrowded areas to areas of greater
opportunity.
10 I am indebted here to a statement by Albert S. Keister in National Resources Planning Board,
Regional Planning, Pari XI — The Southeast.
484 ALL THESE PEOPLE
The crowding is the greatest and incomes are the lowest at the base of
the occupational pyramid. Unless those near the bottom can climb to higher
levels of skill and capacity, increased migration will simply serve to share
the poverty with other regions with no benefit to the general welfare. Pro-
grams for developing the skills of oncoming youth have been developed in
the N.Y.A., in apprenticeship training, and in the upgrading procedures
adopted in war industries. As new techniques are tested and applied we may
expect raw recruits to increase their worth to prospective employers and to
society at the same time. Obviously higher skills are needed not only in
the industrial discipline, but in agriculture and forestry as well.
It was in the quests for higher levels of income and higher standards
of living, that the Southeast turned originally to industrial development.11
Regional variations in wages still exist throughout the United States, but the
Southeast especially has come to be known as the region of the differential
wage. There were many reasons, no doubt, for low wages in the South-
east, but presumably they derived from ( I ) inadequate capital equipment,
(2) large population increases, (3) the pressure of labor seeking escape
from an over-crowded agriculture, and the (4) population's lack of train-
ing in the industrial discipline.
In terms of balancing needed consumption with potential production,
this tends to establish the balance at a low level, the lowest in the Nation.
The Southeast may not soon be able to change these conditions, but it can
make up its mind whether under normal conditions low wages should be
regarded as a permanent resource of the region.
This new attitude toward .human resources is also made necessary by
the fact that in our industrial life national policy has underwritten certain
guarantees of social security that are threatened by the population pres-
sure in the Southeast. In our effort to conserve human resources and main-
tain standards, the national policy has set up certain levels below which
the Federal power cannot and does not allow the States to fall. The Fair
Labor Standards Act thus sets up minimum wages and maximum hours
of work to which industries must conform, if their products are to move in
interstate commerce. Programs of social security and unemployment com-
pensation, together with Federal aid to public highways, to vocational and
agricultural education, all set up minimum standards below which States
must not fall.
Three corollaries as to future industrial development in the Southeast
seem to follow from the assumptions behind the Fair Labor Standards Act.
First, while standards affect only minimum wages they will in time come
11 See author's statement in National Resources Planning Board, Regional Planning, Part XI — The
Southeast, pp. 45-46; also "Human Resources and Public Policy: An Essay toward Regional-National
Planning," Social Forces, XXII (October, 1943), 23-25.
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 485
to be felt throughout the whole level of wages and skills. Secondly, if
southern industry and labor are to gain access to national markets, they
must in the long run be equal in efficiency and productivity to any in the
Nation. Third, southern firms on the margin of bankruptcy cannot long be
saved from the consequences of mismanagement by recourse to the pay-
ment of substandard wages. When such firms fail, their laborers and their
share of production will be taken over by more efficient firms in the region,
if they can make the grade j outside, if they cannot. Higher standards, it
is now generally recognized, offer industry its one hope of disposing of
its product in mass markets once the war boom has passed. It is doubtful
if the Southeast or any other region can present legitimate claims to stand
in the way of the development of a national minimum wage.
There remains the problem of those who may face unemployment even
at a high level of economic activity. In our national policy, the problems
of those who grow too old to work, those who are temporarily unemployed,
and those who for various reasons are unemployable are met in the pro-
gram for social security. In this situation, as in the Fair Labor Standards
Act, we can no longer depend upon the assumptions prevalent in classical
economics as to the beneficent effect of unregulated supply and demand on
unprotected units of labor. By action of the State, the political citizen is
now an economic citizen with certain minimum rights of economic security
underwritten by the State.
In the enactment of laws providing for unemployment compensation,
old-age insurance^ and the provision of relief and made work for the un-
employed, we havti abandoned laissez-faire economics in a return to an
older conception of social policy.12 The wealth of the Nation is pledged to
a collective underwriting of the economic welfare of 'citizens at certain
minimum standards. This, it must be realized, makes national-regional
planning imperative in the economic sphere. Postwar unemployment is
nowaccepted as a risk to our total national security, pledged as it is to
this new program. To support insurance against unemployment on the
part of the few requires a high level of employment among the many. To
support old-age retirement funds for the increasing numbers of the aged
will require a continuing high level of national income. These conditions
are worth reviewing for they emphasize the stake that our national policy
has assumed in underwriting high levels of employment, productivity, and
total national income. With its solvency at stake in carrying out its guar-
antees of security to its citizens, the Nation cannot proceed on the assump-
tions of the older economic order. It is no longer enough for the Nation to
For the author's view that security represents a return to the values of earlier community life,
see his "Security and Adjustment: The Return to the Larger Community," Social Forces, XXII (May,
1944), 363-370-
\
486
ALL THESE PEOPLE
hope for continued employment and high national income j it must seek
to plan for the achievement of these conditions.
The Southeast offers an especial problem in this field because two of
its major groups, agricultural and domestic laborers, remain outside the
guaranties of unemployment and old-age insurance. More than in any
other region these two groups predominate in the economic life of the
Southeast. The result was that in 1937 when the Nation had 70 percent
of its employed workers covered by old-age insurance, the Southeast had
hardly half, indicating the predominance of agriculture in the region. Thus
the Southeast had half of its employed women in covered occupations as
compared to three-fourths in the Nation — but less than half of its men
workers were found in covered occupations as compared with 70 percent
for the Nation (Table 146). The region with lower incomes is thus left
with larger numbers to be provided for by the various forms of public
relief which depend largely on the fiscal capacity of the States. For the
region to reach and maintain a high level of income and security for its
future workers a way must be found to extend to these groups the benefits
of our social security program.
Table 146. Employees Aged 15-64 Covered by Old-Age Insurance as
Percentage of All Workers Available for Employment and All
Workers Employed 15-64, United States and Southeast, 1937
(Workers in Thousands)
Number Workers 15-64
Workers 15-64 Covered by Insurance
Area and Sex
All available
Employed
Number
Percent of
all available
Percent of
employed
United State9
ALL
52,630
38,363
14,267
10,511
7,670
2,841
41,994
31,247
10,747
8,573
6,465
2,108
30,024
21,801
8,223
4,238
3,150
1,088
57.0
56.8
57.6
40.3
41.1
38.3
71.5
69.8
76.5
Southeast
ALL
49.4
Male
48.7
51.6
Note: Workers available for employment include totally unemployed, emergency workers, partly unemployed, fully employed,
part-time workers, and ill or voluntarily idle. Employed workers include 4 categories (all mentioned above less first two groups).
Number of workers covered by old-age insurance includes some persons who reached the age of 15 or 65 during 1937; the latter
had to be inc'uded because they could not be separated by sex for the Southeast. However, the number added to those strictly
15-64 years of age in 1937 is too small to be of any importance for this estimate.
Source: Bureau of Old-Age Insurance. Analysis Division, "Old-Age Insurance" Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 2, (March 1939),
Table 11. p. 77. U. S. Census of Partial Employment, Unemployment, and Occupations, Vol. IV (See our Tables 88, p. 319, and
93, p. 326.
None of this discussion should imply that the Southeast will not con-
tinue its movement toward industrialization. It may suggest, however, that
the means will differ somewhat from those once advocated. Artificial in-
ducements to increased industrialization through municipal subsidies in
the form of free factory sites, tax exemption, and outright subsidy have not
proved their worth in the region. They are not needed in the war pro-
WANTED: THE NATION'S FUTURE FOR THE SOUTH 487
gram and it is doubtful if they long continue. Low wages, moreover, will
come to count less than increased productivity. A certain normal growth
of industrialization continued throughout the depression, was accelerated
under defense, and is no doubt to be expected in the future. The Southeast
can reasonably expect to continue to process its raw materials in meeting
the rising demands of its own regional markets. In certain products, it has
shown its ability to manufacture for the Nation, and, with further equali-
zation of class freight rates, where these are shown to be discriminatory,
it should have the chance to expand these markets.
It may not lead us too far astray to suggest that in time we may de-
velop a national policy in regard to the regional location of industry.13
This question will be raised by the disposal of government-financed
plants. Whether they are to be abandoned or transferred to private
enterprise for the production of peacetime needs will depend largely
on variations in the regional pattern of industry. The TVA, for example,
has already affected the location of industry in several fields. In addition,
increased facilities for financing regional industry and small business may
be indicated. This is likely to be needed in the post-war period, for
small business, unable to secure war contracts, has been hard hit by priori-
ties and actual shortages of necessary materials.
The jitoot question of the South's industrialization, it appears, has cre-
ated more controversy than any other phase of regional development. Here
again we need a realization on the part of the Nation and the Southeast that
high standards of living, increased income and higher wages are necessary
to balance our production-consumption budget at a higher level. Economic
advance of the South is essential to further national progress. This will
include greater technical capacity and higher levels of economic organiza-
tion and resource use both in agriculture and outside. Further industriali-
zation of the South in processing its raw materials and in utilizing its
human resources is likely to continue and should be accompanied by a grad-
ual rise in the purchasing power of labor through enforcement of Federal
standards of minimum wages and maximum hours in all basic interstate
industries.
Much controversy can be avoided in the future development of the
South by the realization that the region has to make no drastic choices on
the all-or-none basis. We do not have to choose all-out-migration, all-
out-industrialization, nor even all-out-diversification to the exclusion of
staple crops. The principle to be served is one of balance. While we seek to
improve agriculture, we shall also seek to make the best use of industry
Ja See National Resources Planning Board, Industrial Location and National Resources (Washington,
D. C: U. S. Government Printing Office, 1943).
488 ALL THESE PEOPLE
and of migration opportunities. The goal to be sought and the touchstone
of development is higher utilization of resources and higher standards and
2^ levels of living for our total population, regional and national. It is these
trends that the war effort has accelerated and it is these gains that postwar
reconstruction should seek to conserve.
At the end of America's first great War for Independence over 165
years ago, the statesmanship of the colonial South helped give the Nation
the conception of unity and liberty for which today it is again righting in
theatres of war abroad. The facts at hand make it clear that there is abun-
dant opportunity after the war for cultural and economic statesmanship in
the South to set an example for the Nation in securing and maintaining in
this region "an ever-increasing release of the power of human nature in
the service of a freedom which is cooperative and a cooperation which is
voluntary."14
11 John Dewey, Freedom and Culture (New York, 1939), p. 176.
"
BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTES*
Primary Sources
United States Department of Commerce
Bureau of the Census
Sixteenth Census of the United States, 1940, Government Printing Office,
Washington, D. C.
Reports on Population
Volume I. Number of Inhabitants by States. Total Population for States,
Counties, and Minor Civil Division; for Urban and Rural Areas j for
Incorporated Places; for Metropolitan Districts and for Census Tracts.
Volume II. Characteristics of the Population: Sex, Age, Race, Nativity,
Citizenship, Country of Birth, School Attendance, Education, Employ-
ment Status, Class of Worker, Main Occupational Group, and Industry
Group.
Volume III. The Labor Force: Occupation, Industry, Employment, and
Income by States.
Volume IV. Population Characteristics by Age, Marital Status, Relation-
ship, Education, and Citizenship by States.
Reports on Housing
Volume I. Data for Small Areas by States; Block Statistics for Cities.
Volume II. General Characteristics of Housing by States.
Volume III. Characteristics by Monthly Rental or Value by States.
Volume IV. Mortgages and Owner-occupied Nonfarm Homes by States.
Reports on Agriculture
Volume I. Statistics by Counties for Farm, Acreages and Values with Re-
lated Information for Farms and Farm Operators. Livestock and Live-
stock Products; and Crops.
Volume II. Statistics by Counties for Value of Farm Products; Farms
Classified by Major Source of Income and Total Value of Products.
* Since the volume is provided with bibliographic footnotes to main sources cited, the bibliography is
limited to primary sources and selected secondary materials useful in the present approach to population
study.
[489]
490 BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTES
Volumes I and II also include the United States Summary by States
First Series: Number of Farms, Uses of Land, Values, Principal Classes
of Livestock and Livestock Products and Specified Crops Harvested.
Second Series: Farm Mortgages, Taxes, Labor, Expenditures and Mis-
cellaneous Farm Information.
Volume III. General Report: Statistics by Subjects for the United States
and by States. Includes Farms, and Farm Property ; Color, Tenure,
and Race of Farm Operators; Farm Mortgages; Work Off Farms,
Age and Years on Farms; Cooperatives, Labor, Expenditures, Machin-
ery, Facilities. Also includes Third Series Summary: Value of Farm
Products, Farms Classified by Major Sources of Income and by Total
Value of Products.
Reports on Manufactures
Volume I. General Report — Statistics by Subjects.
Volume II. Reports by Industries, Groups i to 20.
Volume III. Reports by States — Statistics for Industrial Areas Counties
and Cities.
Biennial Census of Manufacturers, 1921 —
Issued every odd year since 1921.
Reports for years preceding Decennial Census 1919, 1929, 1939 are
published in Decennial Census.
No reports issued for 1941 and 1943.
Vital Statistics — Special Reports
Numbers 1 — Current
Odd-numbered volumes include a variety of reports, special studies,
analytical articles, and official instructions and definitions, pertain-
ing to natality and mortality data and related subjects.
Numbers 2 — Current
Even-numbered reports consist of State summaries giving in identical
form comparable vital statistics for each State.
Official Compendia.
Statistical Abstracts of the United States. Annual from 1930 — Current.
Abstract of the Fifteenth Census of the United States, Washingon, D. C,
1933-
Vital Statistics Rates in the United States, 1900-1940, Washington, D. C,
1943-
Selected Secondary Sources
Valuable contributions to population literature both in books and in scien-
tific journals will be found listed by author, subject, and country or region in
the quarterly bibliography, Population Index (193 5-) published by the School
of Public Affairs, Princeton University and the Population Association of
America, Princeton, New Jersey. There is no journal in the United States
devoted to population but detailed analyses are often published in the Milbank
Memorial Fund Quarterly, Journal of the American Statistical Association,'
BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTES 49 1
the Journal of Human Biology, the Journal of Human Fertility, in special
issues of The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,
and especially in the sociological periodicals, American Journal of Sociology,
American Sociological Review, and Social Forces. More marginal materials
will be found in periodicals in the field of geography, public health, etc.
Public Health Reports often contain valuable materials for population stu-
dents as does the Statistical Bulletin issued by the Metropolitan Life Insurance
Company, New York.
The best single volume for placing American trends against the back-
ground of world demography is World Population: Past Growth and Present
Trends by A. M. Carr-Saunders (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1936). The
standard account of population history and status in this country is the valu-
able Social Trends monograph, Population Trends in the United States by
Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1933).
It may be supplemented by two texts in the field, Warren S. Thompson,
Population Problems (Third Edition, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1942), Paul
H. Landis, Population Problems: A Cultural Interpretation (New York:
American Book Company, 1943).
The treatment of declining births and the social implications of differential
fertility which reached a high point in Dynamics of Population by Frank
Lorimer and Frederick Osborn (New York: Macmillan Company, 1934)
was carried further on a regional basis in one of the most enlightened of
government reports, The Problems of a Changing Population (Washington,
D. C: National Resources Committee, 1938). It should be supplemented by
Raymond Pearl's most important contribution, The Natural History of Popu-
lation (London: Humphrey Milford, 1939), a first-hand study of family
limitation. The best study of internal migration and the major contribution
of economics to population analysis in this country is still found in the report
of the Study of Population Redistribution, Migration and Economic Oppor-
tunity (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1936) by Carter
Goodrich and staff. It can be supplemented by two research memoranda:
Warren S. Thompson, Internal Migration in the Depression (i937)> and
Rupert B. Vance, Population Redistribution Within the United States (1938),
both publications of the Social Science Research Council, New York City.
Among the work of rural sociologists in population that of T. Lynn Smith,
The Sociology of Rural Life (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1940) is
notable both for its knowledge of southern conditions and its analysis of the
location and settlement factors. The one adequate study of rural population
in the depression is still T. J. Woofter and Ellen Winston, Seven Lean Years
(Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1939), a somber if objec-
tive record.
The regional approach to the analysis of the cultural adequacy of a people
stems from Howard W. Odum's Southern Regions of the United States
(Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1936). This monumental
work may be supplemented by Rupert B. Vance, Human Factors in Cotton
492 BIBLIOGRAPHIC NOTES
Culture (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1929), a descrip-
tive study of the cotton culture complex before agricultural control, and
Rupert B. Vance, Human Geography of the South: A Study in Regional
Resources and Cultural Adequacy (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina
Press, 1932). Erich W. Zimmermann, World Resources amd Industries
(New York: Harper and Brothers, 1933), a functional analysis of the avail-
ability of resources in agriculture and industry, should be read in connection
with Chapter 1 and Part V.
The most valuable account of the development of population policy in
any country is that written by Alva Myrdal, Nation and Family: The Swedish
Experiment in Democratic Family and Population Policy (New York: Harper
and Brothers, 1941). It may be supplemented from the more theoretical side
by Gunnar Myrdal, Population: A Problem for Democracy (Cambridge:
Harvard University Press, 1940). The one American volume on this sub-
ject, Frank Lorimer, Ellen Winston, and Louise K. Kiser, Foundations of
American Population Policy (New York: Harper and Brothers, 1940), devotes
one chapter to policy analysis.
Those interested in methods used here and elsewhere in population analysis
may well begin with Margaret Jarman Hagood, Statistics for Sociologists (New
York: Reynal and Hitchcock, 1941) Part V, "Selected Techniques for Popu-
lation Data," and thence proceed to the methods developed by R. R. Kuczyn-
ski in his Measurement of Population Growth (New York: Oxford University
Press, 1936). Reference may be had to standard volumes on vital statistics
by Arthur Newsholme, George C. Whipple, and Raymond Pearl, and to
appendices on method in Lorimer and Osborn, op. cit. and D. V. Glass, Popula-
tion Policies and Movements (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1940), pp. 400-415.
Alfred J. Lotka has been the principal contributor to theory and methods
dealing with the stable population. In addition to its value in methodology,
Louis I. Dublin and Alfred J. Lotka, The Length of Life: A Study of the
Life Table (New York: Ronald Press, 1936) is the standard work on life
expectancy. For a valuable short method it may be supplemented by Lowell
J. Reed and Margaret Merrill, "A Short Method for Constructing an Abridged
Life Table," The American Journal of Hygiene, XXX (September, 1939)
33-62,; also reprinted in Vital Statistics — Special Reports 9, No. 54. The
various methods involved in calculating internal migration from United States
data are explained in C. Warren Thornthwaite, Internal Migration in the
United States (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 1934), also
republished as Appendix A in Carter Goodrich (op. cit.y pp. 675-699), and
C. Horace Hamilton, Rural-Urban Migration in North Carolina, ig2o-ig^o
(Raleigh, North Carolina: State College, 1934), Bulletin 295.
A future course for population research together with discussion of methods
involved has been charted by P. K. Whelpton in Needed Population Research
(Lancaster, Pennsylvania: The Science Press Printing Co., 1938). Questions
of regional planning are further discussed by John V. Van Sickle in Planning
for the South: An Inquiry into the Economics of Regionalism (Nashville,
Tennessee: Vanderbilt University Press, 1943).
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT*
A. A. A., effect of, program, 184-85; and quota
regulations, 24.6
Accidental violence, 337-39
Acreage, average, United States and Southeast,
1850-1940, 164-65; and price control, 180; and
value ratios, 180-84, 187-88
Acute diseases, 364
Adjustment and social planning, 470
Advancement rates, optimum, in school, 397
Age, composition, 48-68, 334; by function, 48-9;
percentage of, 52; changes in, 55; sex compo-
sition, 57-9; future distribution by residence,
60-1 ; of migrants, 122; sex ratios of workers,
318-29; of unemployed, 318-29
Age-grade ratios, 399-401
Age specific birth rates, trend of, 77-8, 99-102
Aged, problem of, 54-7; pseudo-increase in the,
56; health of, 351-65; effect of health pro-
gram, 357-63
Aging population, effect of, on sex ratio, 44-6 i
cause of, 55
Agrarian economy, 140-41, 154-247
Agricultural census, 1935, on acreage and crop
values, 180
Agricultural depression, 28-9
Agricultural expansion, high water mark of, 164
Agricultural groups, 148-53
Agricultural ladder, 215
Agricultural production, equation of, 154
Agriculture, employment capacity of, 149-50;
increased productivity in, 152; value produc-
tivity per male worker in, 156; output per per-
son in, 208; land use pattern in Southern, 154-
76; crop system in Southern, 177-97; energy
resources in Southern, 198-212; land tenure in
Southern, 213-30; tenancy and race in, 231-47.
See also Farms
Alabama Black Belt, 242
Alabama Limestone Valleys, 242
Alcoholism, and mental disease, 361, 362-63;
deaths from, 363
American League for Birth Control, 472
Anderson, H. Dewey, 148
Anderson, Wilhelm, 478
Angell, R. C., 39-40
Atlantic Coast Line Railway, 284
Auto fatalities, 338-39
Available workers, by age groups, 326-27
Auxiliary occupations, 141
Auxiliary services, 277
Auxiliary technical forces, 311
Baker, O. E., 155, 186
Balance, of producers and consumers, regional,
59-61; between food, feed, and staple crops,
184-85
Bankhead Act, 150, 246
Baptist Congregations, 16-7
Beebe, Gilbert Wheeler, 473-74
Beef cattle, 182-83
Bernert, Eleanor H., 131
Biggers, John D., 319
Birth, and death rates, trend of in Southeast,
70-71
Birth control, 63; in folk society, 105-07; atti-
tude farm mothers toward, 107, 153. See also
Contraception, and Public health
Birth rate, trend of white, United States, 65;
crude, 1940, 72
Birth, registration and census enumeration, 73
Births, under-registration of, 73; trend of, by
age of mothers, 76-8; to mothers under 20, 80-
2; illegitimate, 84-6; illegitimate, by race, 85-
6; number of, sufficient to replace population,
91 ; demographic factors influencing decline in,
1920-30, 99-100; annual, on farms, 1920-1940,
1 29-30; percentage attended by physicians, 367-
69. See also Fertility
Black belts, shrinkage of the, 235
Boll weevil, in Catawba Valley, 310
Bonnen, 209
Boswell, James, from Life of Johnson, 62
Budget balancing, 469
Business cycles, 14, 24-5
* References to regional status and characteristics will be found under topics rather than under the
regional category. Roslyn Ribner assisted in the preparation of the index.
[493 ]
494
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
Cancer, 337"39> 34°> 357
Cane sugar, 299
Cantillon, Richard, 109-10
Carr, L. J., 39-40
Carr-Saunders, A. M., 106
Carver, T. N., 7
Cash renter, 215
Catawba River, 282
Catawba Valley, 279-93; as example of indus-
trialization, Southeast, 279-317; hydro-electric
development in, 283-84; rural-urban settlement
in, 309; industrialization and population trends,
309-11; agriculture and manufacturing in,
310; effect of industrialization on occupational
distribution in, 310-U; migration to, 310;
natural increase in, 310; effect of industrializa-
tion on agriculture in, 311-14; part-time farm-
ing in, 313-14; effect of industrialization on,
316-17. See also Industrial, Industry, Manu-
facturing
Catawba-Wateree watershed, 282
Catholic church, 472
Cattle-fever tick, elimination of, 196
Census, 12; task of United States, 24
Census of Manufactures, 266
Census of unemployment, 318-29
Center of population, westward march of — 179°"
1940, 20-1
Cerebral hemorrhage, 337"39, 358
Charlton, J. L., 437
Chattahoochee-Appalachicola watershed, 282
Cheap land, 155
Chestnut blight, 298
Children, distribution of, age 5-14, 5,1-3 i and
special problems, 51-3; ratio of under 5 to
1,000 white women, 15-49, 66-8
Child-spacing programs, 472
Chile, infant mortality in, 373
Chronic diseases, 364
Chronic nephritis, 358
Cities, trend of big and small, 31-5; number of,
by size, 32-3
City families by income, 256
City growth, causes of, 37-8
Class, and church membership, 16
Clerks and kindred workers, 142-47
Coal fields, in Southern Appalachians, 21
Coastal Piedmont of Virginia, 109
Coastal plains, 155
College attendance, regions proportions of, 440-
41; college enrollment, 385-91
Colonial economy, 264-65
Colonial populations, 15-18
Colored farm operators, losses of, 244; croppers,
231; owners, 232. See Negro in agriculture
Colored mortality, peak in excess of, 348
Colored population, percentage change in due to
natural increase, 75. See Negro population
Colored wives, prolificacy distribution of, 97-9.
See Negro
Commercial and financial leadership, 453
Committee on Linguistic and National Stocks in
Population of the United States, Report of, 15
Communicable diseases of childhood, 358
Competition for the land, 234-35
Comstock laws, 471
Congenital malformations, 338
Congregations in Colonial America, 16-17
Constitutional right of migration, 138
Conservation, 481-83
Consumer Research Project, on income distribu-
tion, 252-53
Consumers, excess of in Southeast, 61
Consumption, 251
Contraception, related to social values, 105; folk
methods of, 105. See also Birth control
Contraceptive, no ideal, 108
Contraceptive services, experiment in, Logan
County, West Virginia, 473-74
Cooley, C. H., 39-4°
Corn, return to labor from, 177; crops, 180-84;
acreage, 205
Corn rations for livestock, 186
Corporation taxes, and educational support, 435
Cotton and delta areas, population increases in —
1930-1940, 29
Cotton Belt, mechanization in, 209
Cotton crop, comparative advantage of, 177-78;
place in South's economy, 179-84; recent re-
duction in, 184-88
Cotton economy, effect of, on migration, 137-38
Cotton farms, 169
Cotton kingdom, expansion of the, no
Cotton mill villages, 300-01
Cottonseed meal and hulls, decline in, 195
Cotton spindles, 303-04
Cotton textiles industry, decentralization of, 303-
08
County health units, distribution of, 377, 379
County tax support, 432
Cropland per capita, 157
Croppers in tenancy system, 214, 215
Cropping and mining of resources, 482
Crops, man hours required per acre by, 209
Crop specialty farms, 169
Crop system, 177-97; changes in Southeast, ^930^.
1940, 177, 181-88
Crop yields, improvements in the per acre, 312
Cultural adequacy of the people, 335-36
Cultural tradition, as inadequate in rural districts,
439
Dairy cattle, 182-83; increase in, 185-86
Dan-Roanoke watershed, 282
Davidson, Percy E., 148
Death rates, age-specific differences, 42, 44-45;
by sex, 45; as index of health, 336; standard-
ized, 336-37, 345; by leading causes, 1900-
1940, 338
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
495
Deaths, regional variation in cause of, 336-44;
causes of by race, 343, 349 ; causes of in a
mature population, 354-60; median age of, 355-
56; median age by causes, 357-595 ty occu-
pations, 346-47; among stationary population,
3 56 ; age concentration of, 357
Dedrick, Calvert L., 319, 352
Defective teeth, 379
Degenerative diseases, 337-39, 341, 357
Delta area, 209
Demand, per capita, 150
Demobilization of soldiers, 332; women workers,
332
Democracy, ideals of, 446, 474; values of, 471-72
Democratic population policy, 471-72
Demographic maturity, of United States, 24
Demon, E. L., 196-97
Density, of United States population, 21; Southern
population, 22
Department of Agriculture, 129
Depression, in Southern agriculture, 180; and
tenancy, 243-47; anc' retail sales, 251
Dewey, John, 469, 488
Diabetes, 340, 357
Diarrhea, 340
Dickins, Dorothy, 314
Dictionary of American Biography, 448
Differential fertility, 7, 63-4, 145-46; in colonial
period, 6j-6; emergence of, 65, 474
Differential wage, of the Southeast, 270, 484
Digestive diseases, 365
Disease. See Morbidity
Diseases of early infancy, 338
Distinction, chances of achieving, 449
Distribution and service occupations, 141-42, 148-
53. 257
Divorce rate, 81, 83
Divorced, proportion of women, 79-80
Doctors, regional proportion of, 366-77
Domestic manufactures, 286
Domestic servants, 142-47
Douglas, Paul, 148
Dorn, Harold F., 345, 360
Dublin, Louis I., 354, 356, 366
Duke Power Company, 284
Dutch congregations, 16
Dynamics in population, 7
Economic cycles, 10; in the United States, 2C.
Economic density in the Southeast, 157
Economic inequalities, 479
Economic interest, in population, 6-7
Economic mobility, 276-77
Economic stability, 470
Economics and natural laws, 467
Economics of large families, 105-06
Education, relation of high school and standards
of living, 1 06; of the people, 380-446; stand-
ards of formal, 380; conditioning of mass, 381 ;
Office of, 395; and cultural adequacy, 395-404,
445; optimum conditions of, 402-03; inade-
quacies of, 403; progress, in Southeast in 70
years, 405-19; financial statistics of, 1871-
1938, 417; regional variations from national
averages, 417, 419; regional economics of, 420-
36; as a purchasable commodity, 420; costs of
per pupil, 421-23; rural-urban differences in
costs of, 423-27; expenditures, per unit of edu-
cational need, 426-27; support, financial ability
of states to support, 427-30; effort to support,
430; Federal Aid for, 430-32; effort for under
uniform tax system, 431; and general property
tax, 433-35; and type of tax, 433-36; function
of, 445; leadership in, 453; social value of,
479
Educational, load, 51 ; status, 3 80-90 ; of the
community, 389; index of need, 425-27;
weighted units of, 425-27; ratio of to financial
ability, 427-29
Edwards, Alba M., 142-47, 346, 461
Edward's case, 138
Eighth grade, effect of absence of, 396
Electrification of Catawba Valley, 284
Elementary school, enrollment in, 335-91; de-
cline of enrollment in, 409
Elementary school age population, percentage of,
52
Emergency workers, 320
Eminent persons, ratios of, born in Southeast by
states, 451-58
Eminent residents, of Florida, 459; of Arkansas,
459
Employment, status of population, 18-64, 135-37;
capacity of economic sectors, 148-53; trend of,
149; in manufacturing and construction, 150-
53, 178; ratios in cotton production, 178; re-
gional differences in, 319-33; pattern of, 1937,
319-21; pattern of, 1930, 329; in urban and
rural nonfarm areas, and on farms, 327-29;
pattern, by race, 328; regional-national com-
parisons in pattern of, 327-32; services, 483
Endowed universities, as national institutions, 439-
40
Energy resources on the farm, 198-212
Enrollment, teachers needed under assumption of
optimum, 403-04; change in, 1928-1938, 412;
trends in ratio of average daily attendance to,
413, 415
Enrollment index, ratio of, to fertility index, 411-
Enteritis, 340
Entrepreneur's income, 263-64
Enumerative check census, 318-29
Environment and health, 335-36
Episcopal churches, 16-17
Erosion, percentage of area affected by, 161 ; man-
made, 160-62
Ethnic groups, and church membership, 16; re-
gional distribution of, 15-18
Evans, Kenneth, 461-65
496
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
Experts and public policy, 468
Extractive groups, 148-53
Extractive occupations, 257
Ezekiel, Mordecai, 150, 152
Fair Labor Standards Act, 287, 484, 48;
Fame, chances of, 449; by phase of culture, 452,
46;
Families, number and size of, 86-90; by income
level, 253-54
Family interest, and population replacements, 2
Family size, in a self-replacing population, 474
Family-sized farm, 165
Family units, increase in number of, 87-9
Farm, average value per, United States and South-
east, 1850-1940, 164-65; average size of, 1940,
165-69; type of, 160-70; important type of,
by counties, 170; by-products, 178; horses,
prices of, 212
Farm animals, decreases in, 198-212; breeding of,
212. See also Work animals
Farm income, regional by source, 178-80; per
capita and trend of, 253, 255-56
Farm laborers, 142-47; effect of mechanization on
displacement of, 209-10, 218-20. See Farm
wage hands, Farm tenants
Farm land, value of per capita, 158-59; produc-
tivity of, 160-61 ; 1850-1940, 163
Farm, management, 154; managers, 142-47; oper-
ation, expenses of, 315
Farm operators, 140-41 ; number of by color and
tenure, 217-18; regional change in number of
by color and tenure, 1930-1940, 226-28
F'arm owners, 142-47
F'arm population, annual change in, 1920-1940,
129-31; increases in of working age, 133-36;
replacement rates of, 146-48; and the land use
pattern, 154-76
Farm products, ratio of value of to value of farm
property, 155
Farm tenancy. See Tenancy
Farm tenants, displacement of, 107, 246; shift of
to farm wage hands, 245
Farm values, 1 850-1940, 163
Farm wage hands, 217-19; changes in numbers
of, 245
Farms, 1850-1940, 163; acres in, 163-64; num-
ber of, 163-64; regional trends in size of,
1900-1940, 165-66; distribution of, United
States and Southeast, 1929, 169-70; type of,
1939, 169-71; distribution of by products sold,
United States and Southeast, 1929 and 1939,
171-74; lacking horse3 and mules, 201-12;
lacking power resources, 210-12; changes in
number of, 225-26
Federalism, 477
Feed, production of, 186-87; farms reporting pur-
chase of, 193-94
Females, percentage married, 78-81; percentage
widowed, 79-80; percentage divorced, 79-80;
as secondarily unemployed, 324-26. See also
Women
Feminine culture, 40
Fertility, decline in, 2-3; high, in United States,
13; factors affecting, 62-3; age-specific, 62-3;
historical decline in, 64-6; regional trends in,
66-76; ratio, children 5 years to 1,000 women
15-49 as> 66-9; percentage decline in, 69;
decline in by age groups, 1920-1940, 76-8;
by order of births, 77-8; effective, 79; varia-
tions in, with marriage rates, 81; pattern of
high, in Southeast, 95-108; indices of, 96;
factors in South's high, 100-02; decline in
on school enrollment, 410-14; index, 411-18.
See Births and Birth rates
Fertilizer, farms using commercial, 193-94
First grade, retardation in, 395; as most hazard-
ous, 398; as bottleneck of educational system,
400-02
Five civilized tribes, 236
Flatwoods, 242
Flook, Evelyn, 377
Flow economy, 482
Food, production of, 186-87; changes in, 187-
88; acreage, 187
Foreign-born notables, 448
Foreign-born population, in United States, 14-18
Foreign immigration, 14-17; effect of on age
composition of United States, 49; changes in,
471
Forest lands, 196-97; commercial, 195
Forest range, 196
Foudray, Elbertie, 351
Freedom of parenthood, 475
Freight costs, 285
French, 17
Fruit crops, 180-84
Full employment, 329-34
Fulmer, Henry L., 438
Functional illiteracy, 384
Furniture industry, hours in, 288; development of,
295-97; factors in rise of, 297-300; availability
of raw materials in, 298; low freight in, 298.
See also High Point
Future of the South, 476-88
Gainful workers, distribution of, 142; number
of, 1820-1940, 149; definition of, 266
General farm, 169
Garden vegetables, farms reporting, 189, 192-93
Geisert, H. L., 456-61
Generation, length of, 14
Geographic division of labor, 249
Germanic congregations, 16
Glass, D. V., 65
Goats, 186
Georgia Piedmont, 242
Gilbert, C G., 280
Goodrich, Carter, 277
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
497
Gover, Mary, 347, J48
Government leadership, 452
Government payments, 253
Grade, percentage distribution of the population
by> 3^5> expectancy, 395-403; advancement
rates, 396; average, 397
Graduate training, by regions, 444
Grain crop, 180-84
Grain deficit area, South as a, 177
Great men, birth rate of, 448
Greene, J. E., 363
Greville, Thomas N. E., 351
Gross farm income of Southeast, 178-80
Gunther, Ernst, 59, 61
Hagood, Margaret J., 107
Hamilton, Alexander, 286
Hamilton, C. Horace, 121, 122, 210, 211
Hansen, Morris H., 319, 351
Hardwood supply, 298
Hawley, Langston T., 248
Hay, crop, 180-845 rations, 1 86; acreage, 205
Health, of the people, 335-79; advantages of
rural residents in, 345-46; in rural and urban
areas, 345-46; among the elders, 351-65; ad-
vantages of Southeast in, 366; future of, 366;
and manpower, 378-79
Health status, factors in, 336
Heart disease, 337-39, 357; in stationary popu-
lation, 358
Henderson, Leon, 251-52
Herring, Harriet L., 273, 286, 287, 289, 291
High Point; North Carolina, 294-302; seamless
hosiery industry in, 296; furniture market in,
296; capital of furniture industry of, 296;
origin of the furniture industry in, 296; ecol-
ogy of, 300; a two-industry town, 300; agri-
culture in area, 301 ; industry, labor in, 299-
300; industrial pattern of, 300-02; suburban
settlement, 302
High school, percent enrolled in, 385-91; edu-
cation as American heritage, 408; increase of
enrollment in, 409-10; enrollments in rural
districts, 438
Higher education, public support of, 439-40; re-
gional aspects of, 439-45; devotion to, 440-41;
of the Negro, 442-43 ; regional statistics of, 444
Higher value crops, 183
Highway fund, and educational support, 436
Hired farm laborers, 218-19
Hochman, Julius, 291
Hoe croppers, 211
Hoffsommer, Harold, 229
Hogben, Lancelot T., 8
Holdings, size of by type of farm, 169
Hollow classes, 3, 5
Home-grown supplies on Southern farms, 189
Homicide, 340, 343-44
Hopkins, J. A., 208
Horses, 182-83; decrease in, 185-86; numbers of
on farms, 1 99-200 ; death and breeding rates
of, 199-202; on farms, 1910-1943, 206. See
Mules
Hospitals, distribution of, 367-68
Household, decrease in average size of, 87-9;
average size of, 89-90
Housing, 305-06
Human resources, population as, 7-9, 475; de-
terioration of, 481 ; conservation of, 481; in
industry, 483-87
Hydro-electric development in the Catawba Valley
power province. See Catawba Valley
Hydro-electric power, 279-80
Ideals of democracy. See Democracy
Illiteracy, 383-84
Immigration, foreign. See Foreign immigration
Improved land, per capita, 158-59; per farm,
164
Income, problem of adequate, 248-52; per farm
from crops, livestock, benefit payments, 178-80;
regional distribution of, 248-65; per capita,
249; curve of distribution, 252-53; components
of regional, 252-65; from agriculture, 258,
259; from mining, 258, 259; from manufac-
turing, 260; from governmental occupations,
261, 262; from trade and finance, 261 ; from
transportation, 261, 263; from service indus-
tries, 262; from distributive and social occu-
pations, 263; from investments, 263-64; of in-
dustrial and farm families compared, 313-14;
and inheritance taxes, and educational support,
435
Indian notables, 448
Individual initiative, 483
Industrial, concentration, 140 ; economy, 140-41,
248-317; major areas, 265-67; establishments,
269-70; share of Southeast, 276; heritage of
the Piedmont, _2_86_j„ development in Catawba
Valley, 291-93; community, rise of an, 294-
302; metropolis type of, 306; wage earners in
textiles, 304-05; location, 487
Industrialization, in the Southeast, 265-78, 484-
88; opening phases of, 278; process of, 279; of
rural areas, 279-93; effects of in Southern
Piedmont, 303-17
Industry, increased productivity of, 152; regional
distribution of, 248-317; concentration of, 265;
one-crop system of, 278; factors in the rise of,
281-91; distribution of by size of community
in Catawba Valley, 306-08; subsidy of, 486;
regional location of, 487. See also Catawba
Valley
Industrial workers, gain in 1 900-1 940, 266, 268
Infant mortality, 345, 371-77; as an index of cul-
tural level, 372; causes of, 372; trend of, 1920-
1940, 372; difference in, 44-5; 1940, 373;
in Netherlands and New Zealand, 373; varia-
498
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
tions in, 373; trend of white and Negro, ur-
ban and rural, 1915-1940, 374; by causes, 375 5
racial differences in, 375; urban and rural by
race, 376-77
Innes, J. W., 65
Interest charges on plantations, 238
Interests, conflict of individual, class, group and
national, 467
Internal migration. See Migration, rural-urban
Interracial and class settlement, 242-43
Interregional mobility of famous men, 454
Interstate Commerce Commission, 28;
Investment per worker, 291
Ireland, population trend of, 106-07
Irish, 17; peasantry, 107
Italy, infant mortality in, 373
Jackson, N. E., 97, 98
Jaffe, A. F., 66
Job rationing, 334
Jobs, struggle for, 334
Johnson, Charles S., 247
Keister, Albert S., 483
Keynes, John Maynard, 248
Kitchen furniture, 288
Klineberg, Otto, 362
Kuczynski, Robert R., 354, 356
Labor force, 285-87; and natural dependents,
1937. 319-21
Labor market, proportions of women in the, 326-
27; effect of population trends on, 333
Labor requirements per farm acre, 169
Laissez-faire, 483
Land, quality of, 155; available supply of, 156-
62; acreage distribution of in farms, 1 57-59 >
purchases by Negroes, 239-40
Landlords, percent of, 21 8; according to number
of rented farms owned, 236
Land resources, potential in Southeast, 155, 156-
62; ratio of to total population, 157
Land tenure, legal rights of, 213-14. See Tenancy
Land-use, analysis of, 154-63; science of, 154-55
Langsford, 209, 2IO
Large landholdings, 236-39
Lawler, Eugene R., 424, 430
Leadership, regional distribution of, 447-65; and
cultural development, 447-65; of the Old South,
450-54; fields of, 450-54; in general culture,
451; in political culture, 451 ; regional con-
trasts in, 452; literacy, 453
Leafer, Ruth Crowell, 294
Legumes, 180-84, 187
Length of life, 337, 351-54- See also Life ex-
pectancy
Level of living, 105
Libido, 108
Life expectancy, 345; increases in, 352
Life tables, United States, 351-53 i Southeast, 352-
54
Lincoln County, 291
Livestock, on Southern farms, 181; units of,
181-83; definition of unit, 183; increase in
units, i8;-86; changes in feed for, 187-88
Livestock production, acreage requirements of, 177-
78; in the Cotton Belt, 178, 188-89
Lobar pneumonia, 358
Local patriotism, 480
Local school district, 432, 437"39
Logistic curve, 23
Lorenz curves, 167; distribution of farm land and
farm operators by, 167-69
Lotka, A. J., 91, 354. 356; and Burks, 98
Louisiana, ethnic variety in, 117
Luxury taxes, and educational support, 435
Magee, 209, 210
Mahogany, 299
Maintenance ration, 204-05
Malaria, 340
Males, war losses of, 3; as primarily unem-
ployed, 324-26
Malone, Dumas, 448
Malthus, Thomas R., 14, 106
Malthusian doctrine, 6
Malzberg, Benjamin, 362
Man hours per acre, 177
Man-land ratios, of the Southeast, 47*-73> 483
Manic-depressive psychosis, 361, 362
Manpower, available, and wastage, 320
Manufacturing, 260-61, 265-317; in the South-
east, 266; early in the South, 286; value of,
291; in the Catawba Valley, 292; type of by
size of city, 307. See Industry, Industrializa-
tion, Income, Wages
Manufacturing occupations, 141-42, 257
Marriage, in homogeneous folk communities, 104;
in Ireland, 106-07
Marriage expectation, 95-7
Marriage rate, 82; birth rate trend with, 84
Married women, percentage of, 79-81
Marital status, of native white women, 79-83
Masculine dominance, in folk culture, 107-08
Maternal mortality, 368-71, 370
Mature age group, 48-9; percentage in, 50
Mechanical occupations, 141-42
Mechanization, in agriculture, 198-212; of farms,
related to decrease in work stock, 200-03 ; de-
gree of on farms, 202-04; on farm, 206-12;
and size of farm, 208-09; of plantations, 209-
10. See Tractors
Medical care, beds, distribution of, 366-71, 377-
78; per 1,000 population, 368
Men of distinction, 447-55
Men of talent, birth and migration, trends of,
455-61
Mental disease, 360-64; expectancy of, 360; re-
gional distribution by types, 361
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
499
Mental hospitals, first admissions to, 361
Methodist congregations, 17
Metropolitan areas, 133; and nonfarm growth,
31 ; census definition of, 35; percent of Na-
tion's population in, 35-6; trends 1930-1940,
35-7; in Piedmont, 306
Midwives, 368
Migrants, by color, sex, residence, 122-23
Migration, to cities, 26; effect of on sex ratio,
40; sex differences in net, 42, 45; rural in
France, 109-10; trends in United States and
Southeast, 109-39; agricultural, no; native
white, in; to industrial areas, III; East-
West, in; interregional balance of, 1 14-16;
rural-urban, 120-23, I29"33; internal, 124-29;
racial contrasts in, 126-28; sex differences in,
131; economic function of, 131, 138-39, 150,
153; reasons for interregional, 136-37; post-
war pressure toward, 137-39; anc^ the economic
future, 137-39; and complex economy, 277;
as drain on South's resources, 277-78; of no-
tables, 454-55; planning and subsidization of,
483-84, 487. See Mobility
Milbank Memorial Fund studies, 65, 94, 146
Milk, per capita production of, 193
Milk cows on farms, 189, 191
Mineral products, value of per worker, 260
Mississippi, class structure of, 144-45
Mississippi Delta, 242
Missouri foothills, 29
Mobility of population, social, 7, 148, 215-16
Monroe, A. E., 109
Moore, Bernice M., 68
Morbidity, geography of, 335-36; by income
levels, 364-65. See Disease
Mort, Paul R., 424, 430
Mortality, effect on fertility, 1920-1930, 102-03.
See Deaths
Mortgage debt, 238-39
Motives, conflict between prudential and hedonis-
tic, 108
Motivation of population groups, 9
Mountain, Joseph W., 377
Mules, 182-83; decrease in, 185-86; death and
breeding rates of, 199-202; number of, 199-
200; on farms, 1910-1943, 206
Myrdal, Alva, 9
Myrdal, Gunnar, 2
National educational minimum, 446
National Health Survey, 364, 365
National Industrial Conference Board, 254
National policy, and regional development, 476-88
National Research Project, 207-08
National Resources Planning Board, 94, 156, 281,
477, 480-81, 483-84, 487
National survival, 1-5, 446, 470
Nativity, 99-100
Natural dependents, 48
Natural increase, trends in rate of, 70-73; changes
in total population due to, 74-75; estimated,
1920-1940, 129
Natural resources, 7-8, 480; future of, 481-83
Neff, Ellen Hull, 73-4
Negro in agriculture, 231-247; changes in agri-
cultural status since emancipation, 234; rise as
landowner, 239-42; owner-communities, 240;
losses as croppers, 244; leaving the land, 247;
increases in, 310
Negro education, 382-83; pupils, 397; schools
for, 420-23; college enrollment, 443-44; higher
education among, 444; notables among, 448
Negro population, increase, 18-19; sex ratio in,
41-7; distribution of, 99-100; childlessness
among, 99; illegitimacy among, 99; migration
of, 117-20; percentage of native born living in
other states, 118; percentage of resident born in
other states, 118-19; migration by cities, 120;
migration of, 150; rural, 233; in the westward
movement, 236; rural and urban death rates
of, 347; mortality during Reconstruction, 347;
health of, 347-50; mortality in reproductive
ages, 348; health facilities for, 350; infant
and maternal mortality, 349-50; neo-natal
deaths, 350; infant mortality, 374-77; neo-
natal mortality, 375-76; life expectancy, 352-54
Nephritis, 337-39
Nervous diseases, 365
Net reproduction index, 92-3
Net reproduction rate, of the United States, 91
Newsholme, 372
Nimkoff, Meyer F., 252
Normal curve of distribution, 252
Notables, birth rates of, 448-50 ; Massachusetts'
birth rate of, 449; classification of, 451 ; South
Carolina's high proportion of, 458; ratios of
living in Southeast, 459-60
Notestein, Frank W., 5, 65, 474-75
Novelty furniture, 288
Oats, return to labor from, 177; acreage of, 205
Occupational, distribution, 133-40; regional, 140-
45; by sex, 142-43; by race, 144; classes, differ-
ential replacements by, 145-48; mobility, 148,
484; hierarchy, 277; risks, 345
Occupations, covered by social security, 486
Odum, Howard W., 7-8, 121, 155, 476
Ogburn, William F., 252
Old age group, pensions, 55-6; percentage in,
56-7; insurance, 485; employees covered by,
486; in agriculture, 486; retirement fund, 485.
See also Age composition
Older productive ages, percentage of, 55
Older workers, as transitional group, 51-7; prob-
lem of, 54
One-room schoolhouse, 416
Organic resources, 482
Orthopedic impairment, 365
Output per worker, 148-49
500
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
Overlapping of the generations, 165
Over-population, 158
Paresis, 362
Parran, Thomas, Surgeon General, 336
Part-time employed, 320
Part-time farming, 169; in Catawba Valley, 313-
17; secondary occupations in, 3I4> ani^ 'n"
dustry, 314-15; nonfarm income, 314-15; farm
income, 315; place in agriculture, 315-16; in-
come of, 315-16; living expenses, 316; fuel,
316; housing, 316
Pastures, improved in South, 195-96
Patch croppers, 211
Pearl, Raymond, 63
Pettet, Z. R., 186, 198, 200, 201
Physical production, volume of, 150
Physical resources, future of, 481-83
Physicians, regional distribution, 366-67; extent
to which people call upon, 367-70
Pierson, Richard N., 432
Pigs, farms having, 189, 191
Planned Parenthood Federation of America, 472
Planning, goal of, 480
Plantation areas, by major crop systems, 236-37
Plantations, 163; break-up of, 164, 236-39; credit
on, 238-39; income from, 238; the average, 238
Plato, 467
Plowable pasture, 157
Pneumonia, 337-39
Pogue, J. E., 280
Policy, formation and social reseach, 466-69; and
social planning, 469-70 ; population, 470-75;
regional-national, 470-75, 476-88
Population, interest, I; social values, 1-9; projec-
tions, 5; pressures, 7; analysis, 10; increase in
United States, 10-23; regional balance of, 12-
13; United States, 14; colonial, 15-18; increase
of Negro, 18-19; ^ree colored, 18-19; center
of United States, 20-21; United States dis-
tribution of, 22; change in, 1930-1940, 25-
26; change in, 65 and over, 56-57; station-
ary, 64; change in white, due to natural in-
crease and migration, 75-76; percentage of
native-born living in other states, 11 3-14; net
change in native, 117; change in, due to mi-
gration, 125-26; actual change in, compared
with estimates, 1930-1940, 128-29; replace-
ments in farm, 133-35; policy, 470-75. See
Births, Fertility, Deaths, Mortality, Natural in-
crease, Migration, Age composition, Sex ratio,
Race, Negro, etc.
Population pyramids, 57-59; United States and
Southeast, urban population, 1940, 58; rural
farm, 58-59; and pattern of unemployment,
326-27
Porter, H. G-, 210
Post-maturity age group, 49; percentage of, 51
Postwar planning, and Southeast, 481
Poultry, acreage requirements for, 178; percent of
farms having, 189, 191 ; gains in production,
185-86
Power province, 280
Prediction and social control, 469
Prejudice and national policy, 468
Premature births, 375
Pre-maturity age group, 49; percentage of, 50
Presbyterian churches, 16-7
Preventable diseases, 340, 356
Primary and secondary unemployment, 1930-1937,
321-26
Primary workers, 333
Private property in land, 214-
Products of Southern agriculture, needs for, 156
Progressive populations, 49
Production, process of, 18
Production-consumption budget, balance of, 481
Productivity in the South, 328-29
Products, value of per farm, 171-76; value of
per factory, 270
Professions, persons in, 142-47; percent of, 461-
62; as index of leadership, 461-65; increase in,
1910-1930, 462; percentage change in, 1930-
1940, 464; regional ratios, 463-64
Prolificacy rates, 95-99
Proprietors, 142-47
Public education, task of in Southeast, 395
Public health, task of, 366-79; expenditures for,
3 77-78 ; contraceptive services of, 473-74
Public policy. See Policy
Public school attendance, 390-92
Pupil-teacher ratio, 392; trends in, 414-15
Purchasing power, 250-51
Quantity production, 297
Race, change in population by, 18; changes in
composition, 99-100; distribution of, 101-02;
and tenure groups, 231-32; and land tenure,
231-47. See Negro
Rainfall line, 22
Raper, Arthur F., 239-40
Regional-national, planning, 466-88; population
policy, 470-75; integration, 480
Regional pockets of poverty, 276
Regional survey, 481
Regionalism, 477-79; contrasted with sectional-
ism, 479-81
Regions, of United States, 10-13; indices of 1940,
11-12; balance of population, 12-13, I09i
population growth, 13-19; population increase,
1920-1930, 26-30; retail sales, 251-52; com-
ponents of income by sources, 252-65; inequali-
ties of, 477; diversified economy, 479. See
Population, Agriculture, Industry, Health,
Education, Leadership
Registration area, United States Census, 74
Reed, Lowell J., 104
Relief families, morbidity of, 365
Religious leadership, 452
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
501
Replacement rate, ratios, 90-94; male, 134-3 5 >
for farmers, 146-48
Reproduction. See Fertility, Births
Reproduction rate, gross, 90; net, 90
Reservoirs of population, regions as, 109
Residents, percentage of born in other states, 114-
16
Resources, full utilization of, 248; use of, 478.
See Human resources, Natural resources
Retail sales per capita, 251-52
Retardation, effect of, 399; effect of on enroll-
ment, 41 1, 438
Retrogressive populations, 49
Revolution, techniques of, 106; Sumner on, 469
Rheumatism, 365
Rhyne, J. J., 286-87
River basin system of the Southeast, 282
Rural educational opportunities, 437
Rural farm population, increase, 28; change in,
1930-1940, 30, 31; net migration of, 1930-
1940, 131-33
Rural nonfarm population, increase in, '93°"
1940, 30-31; census definition of, 30-31
Rural population, growth of, 19-20
Rural teachers, 438
Rural-urban migration, 120-23; causes, 122;
annual, 1 29-31; effect of on real wages, 148
Rural and urban population, growth of, 26-38;
distribution of, 99; future distribution by age,
60-61 ; residence, 101-02
Salaries and wages, 263-64; teacher's, 1 871-1940,
418
Sales tax and educational support, 435
Santee watershed, 282
Savannah watershed, 282
Saville, R. J., 210
Saville, Thorndike, 282
Scale of production and consumption units, 59, 61
Science, objectivity and bias in, 467
Scotch stocks, 15-18
Schizophrenia, 361, 362
School, median number of years completed, by
sex, race, residence, nativity, 381-83; days at-
tended, 390-92; advancement rates, 395; length
of term, 413, 415; expenditures per pupil, 416-
17; population by race, 420-22; percentage of
income by sources, 433-34; appropriations by
type of tax, 434; census of attendance, 399;
number of buildings, 416-17; consolidation, 392
School enrollment, percent of, 388; relation of
to school population, 405-13; by race, 406-08;
factors affecting, 408-09
School life expectation, by race, 396-403
School mortality, and retardation, 399
School property, value of, 416-17, 420-21 ; value
of per pupil, by race, 420-22
Schools, State aid to by level of government,
type of tax, local school district, 432-33
Scientific forestry, 483
Scientific leadership, 453
Scrap, utilization of, 482
Seaboard Railway, 284
Secondary workers, 333
Sectionalism, and regional aspirations, 479
Selective Service examinations, on health, 378
Self-sufficing farm, 169
Semi-skilled workers, 142-47
Senile psychosis, 362
Service occupations, 141, 148-53; increase in,
iSi-53
Sex, cleavage in society, 39-40; attitudes of folk,
107-08; behavior, as motivated in folk society,
107; differences in migration, 1930-1940, 131
Sex ratio, 39-47; regional variations in, 40-42;
urban, 41-42; foreign-born, 41-42; Negro, 41-
47; factors determining,, 42-44; at birth, 42-
44; in stillbirths, 43-44
Share renting, 214; tenant, 215
Shaw, E. A., 208
Sheep, 182-83
Sheet erosion, 160-62
Skilled workers, 142-47
Slaughter, John A., 254, 257-58
Slave trade, 18
Small farm, 163; preponderance of in Southeast,
167; tendency towards, 312
Smith, Theobald, 345
Snow, W. H., 296
Social facts, scientific value of, 467
Social inheritance, of class and occupational sta-
tus, 147
Social mobility. See Mobility
Social objectives, 248
Social planning, 469-70, 476-88
SociaT policy. See Policy
Social research and policy formulation, 466-69
Social sciences, and public policy, 467
Social scientist and public policy, 468
Social security, old age, 56, 470, 484; in the
Southeast, 486
Social values, and population, 1-9; in educa-
tion, 445-46, 466, 468; relation to policy,
466-69 * _ »
Socio-economic classes, 142-47, 346
Sociology, ■ and natural laws, 467
Soil erosion, 312, 483
Sorghum crop, 180-84
Southeastern Piedmont, 279-93
Southeast, population growth in, 23
Southern agriculture, crisis in, 150; historical
trend of, 232-36
Southern Appalachians, coal fields of, 21; prob-
lem of, 138
Southern differential in industry, 272
Southern education, trends in since 1870, 405-19
Southern migration, trend of, 110-39; future trend
of, 124; forces behind, 137-39
Southern Power Province, 284
Southern Railway, 284
SOi
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
South-North migration, 1 1 1
Special census of unemployment, 1937, 318-21
Stable population, as goal, 471
Standards of living, effect of on fertility, 6,
104-07
Staple crops, 184-85; changes in, 187-88
State birth-residence data, 112
State equalization funds, and educational support,
436
States, admission of to Union, 1 1
Stationary populations, 49, 354-59; mortality rates
among, 354, 475
Stillbirth rate, 43-44, 370-71
Stix, R. K., and Notestein, F. W., 105
Stock feed, increases in, 195
Stocks, foreign born, 15-17; linguistic, 15
Stone, Dr. Hannah, United States vs., 471
Store economy, 482
Straight-line production, 297
Study of Population Redistribution, 94
Sub-marginal land, 155
Sugarcane crops, 180-84
Suicide, 340, 343-44. 357
Sumner, William Graham, 469
Sundbarg, A. G., 48-9
Survival-value, 248
Sydenstricker, Edgar, 335
Syphilis, 340, 348, 357; and mental disease, 361
Tandy, Elizabeth C, 349, 350
Teachers, college training of, 393-94; salaries,
417, 420 ; by race, 420-21
Technology and economic production, leadership
in, 451
Technology on the farm, 210
Tenancy, 213-30; as a foothold on the land, 213-
14; trend towards, 214; on cotton farms, 214;
growth of, 220-22; expansion of by counties,
221-22; by race, 1910-1920, 222, 224; reason
for increase in, 222; by age of operators, 222-
24; changes in, 1930-1940, 225-30; legal
rights of, 228; a social problem, 228-30; as
uneconomic utilization of a large labor force,
229; a population problem, 229-30; among
Negroes, 231 ; comparison by race, 239-42
Tenant farms, incomes on, 229-30 ; concentration
in ownership of, 236-38
Tenant lease, 228
Tenants, credit problems of, 239
Tennessee Bluffs, 242
Tennessee Valley Authority, 265, 281, 477-78,
487
Tenure, status, as social status, 214; ladder, 215-
16, 222; stages, 215-18
Textile areas, 21-2
Textile industry, comparison of Southern Pied-
mont and New England in the, 303-06
Textile spindles, counties having, 1925, 1939-
1940, 304
Textile workers, origin of, 286-87
Thibodeaux, 209
Thomasville, North Carolina, 297
Thompson, Warren S., 68, III, 121, 470; and
Whelpton, P. K., 60, 94, 99, 128-29, 133
Thornthwaite, C. Warren, 110-11
Tobacco, 169; crops, 180-84
Totalitarian governments, 472
Turner, H. A., 214, 222
Tractors, 202; on farm, 1910-1943, 206; sales
of, 206; related to size of farm, 207-08; farms
reporting, 207; on plantations, 208-09
Training of teachers. See Teachers
Transportation, and trade, 150-5 1; in Piedmont,
284-85; costs in furniture, 285; costs in tex-
tiles, 285; and furniture market, 297-98
Trespass, 214
Trucks, 202
Trustees, of rural schools, 438
Tuberculosis, 337-40, 358; army rejections for,
379
Type of farm. See Farm
Typhoid, 345, 357
Ulster-Scotch stocks in colonial America, 15-16
Unemployment, J. M. Keynes on, 248; effect of
population increases on, 318; 1930-1940, 318-
34; among youth, 321 ; as affected with pub-
lic interest, 321; factors in increase of, 321-26;
by age and sex, 326-27; bias in report of,
329; by regions, 1 940, 331 ; by social-economic
classes, 332; relation of to population trends,
333-34; social implications of, 333-34; com-
pensation, 485
Unfit for general military service, percent, 378
Uniform tax plan, 430
United States Census. See Census
United States Forest Survey, 195
Universal education, 405
University training, in Southeast, 439-46
Unpaid family labor, 155, 218-20, 327-29
Unskilled nonfarm laborers, 142-47
Upgrading, 148
Upholstery in furniture industry, 288
Urban centers, cultural changes in, 38
Urban population, 26-38; growth, 19-20; per-
centage of 1 790-1 940, 1 9-20 ; migration, 26;
change in by size of city, 33; sex ratio, 41;
density pattern of, 140. See Metropolitan areas
Urban problems, effects of depression on, 36-38
Value, of product, 272-75; added by manufac-
ture, 272-75
Values. See Social Values
Van Sickle, John V., 481
Vegetable crops, 180-84
Vegetable garden, 189, 192
Venereal disease, 349
Village population, 30. See also Rural nonfarm
GENERAL INDEX TO TEXT
503
Virginia, class structure of, 144-45
Vitality of the people, 335"36
Voluntarily idle, 320
Wage earners, 140-41 ; definition of, 266; in
major textile areas, 304-05; ratio to salaried
persons, 311
Wages, and salary income, 263-64; regional dif-
ferences in, 270, 288; level of, 270-75; trend
in, 271-74; in furniture industry, 287-89;
structure, 287-91; in cotton textiles, 289-90;
minimum, 484; low in Southeast, 484; national
minimum, 485
War, effect of on population, 1-5; effect of on
migration, I3i-33i centers, 131-33; industries,
wage increases in, 269; women in, 331 ; leader-
ship in, 452
Wasted manpower, 328
Water power, 281-84; as example of a flow
economy, 482
Wealth, concepts of, 7-8; per capita, 249-50, 478
Wehrwein, George S., 214
Wheat, return to labor from, 177
Whelpton, P. K., 76-78, 97, 98, 104, 470. See
also Thompson, Warren S.
White farm operators, cash tenants, 231 ; crop-
pers, losses of, 244; farm owners, 231 ; increase
of, 244. See Population, Race
White population increases, 310; infant mor-
tality, 374
Whitney, Jessamine S., 346
Wildlife, 482
Who's Who in America, 455-56; net migration
of persons in, 456; birth rates of notables in,
United States and Southeast, 18 50-1 890, 456-57
Widowed, percentage, 79
Williams, Robin, 121
Wind erosion, 160-62
Wiregrass, 242
Women, workers in the textile industry, 287; en-
rolled in college, 441-42; on college faculties,
441-42; notables among, 448
Wooden household furniture, 288
Woodland, 157; utilization of, 195; farmer's
utilization of, 197
Woodworking, 296
Woofter, T. J., 133, 229, 234-35, 238, 310, 318
Work, Monroe N., 235
Work animals, replacement rates of in South-
east, 198-204; on Southern farms, 198-206;
interstate movement of, 201-02; units of on
farms, 202-04; effect of reduction of on crop
acreage, 204-05. See Horses and Mules
Work stock. See Work animals
Workers, average per establishment, 270; by sex
and employment, United States and Southeast,
i93°> i937> 194°. 330
World War I, and declining fertility, 2-3
Yadkin-Pee Dee river system, 282
Yazoo Delta, 210
Youth, as transitional group, 5I"52i cultural defi-
nition of, 53-54; proportions of, 53-54
Zimmermann, Erich W., 8, 480
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